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Old 23rd September 2019, 02:18 PM   #121
Ziggurat
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Originally Posted by Wowbagger View Post
Before Trump was elected, I bet some folks real money he would win, hoping I would lose those bets. After that happened, I decided I don't really like making bets on things that I hope I am wrong about. So, for that reason, I will have to turn your offer down.
I'm not suggesting a money bet. No, I was thinking just an avatar bet. No real skin off your nose if you lose, just a bit of mild public embarrassment.
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Old 25th September 2019, 02:13 AM   #122
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Prestige, during the Vietnam War, there was a Census. The Administration wanted to make sure the soldiers in the field were counted, so they used the resident state they had put on their papers as their residency for the purposes of the Census.
Problem was: a vastly disproportionate number of soldiers had put Delaware as their place of residency, because of a rumor that this would get you your pay tax-free.
So the administration, before passing the Census Data on, modified it (some say in a partisan way) as to not give Delaware a ridiculously excessive number of seats.
This was considered absolutely within the power of the President to do.

The Trump administration could totally come up with a system that doesn't count population in different states the same. As long as there is some method for discounting, for example undocumented aliens as measured by a Census question or other available data, there is precedent for the President to change the Census data used for Apportionment before passing it onto the states.

Hofeller saw this and wanted to use it to take away seats from California and other deep blue states.
And by all accounts, whoever is in the White House after the Census has the power to execute this plan.
And the GOP is clearly still following this plan with Trump's decree to use all available data to extract the number of non-citizens per state and combine it with the 2020 census data.

This is not a conspiracy theory.

Last edited by The Great Zaganza; 25th September 2019 at 02:18 AM.
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Old 4th October 2019, 02:45 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Hereís a question that occurred to me, recently: If President Bozo wins a second term, how will he get that next sweet, sweet campaign rally fix?

I guess he could campaign for other Republicans, but it would still be 95% about himself. I wonder whose campaign will want to pay for that?
He apparently has yuge plans for a TV network.
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Old 4th October 2019, 09:04 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
He apparently has yuge plans for a TV network.
Well, that was his primary goal for entering the presidential race in the first place. It makes sense thatís still what he wants to do.
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Old 4th October 2019, 11:15 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
You've heard the fable about the boy who cried wolf. Well, I have now been politically aware during the re-election battles for four Republican presidents: Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr, and Bush Jr. And during each of those re-election efforts, I was assured by liberals of my acquaintance that this was an existential vote. Hell, I worked on the McGovern campaign (extremely minor role), so it's not like I needed any encouragement. And Nixon was re-elected and Reagan was re-elected and Bush Jr. was re-elected, but somehow the republic survived.

Because 3 people were not something that means that person number 4 is also not something.

That's some solid logic you have there.
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Old 4th October 2019, 11:49 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Trump wins bigly in 2020. What then?

I stay continuously in an alcoholic stupor until 2025.
But welfare benefits might not be as generous as they were under Obama.

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Old 4th October 2019, 11:50 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Trump isn't the one trying to engage in a coup.
How is it a coup if he was caught red-handed doing something extremely illegal?

If a murderer is arrested are the police performing an abduction?
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Old 6th October 2019, 02:01 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Hereís a question that occurred to me, recently: If President Bozo wins a second term, how will he get that next sweet, sweet campaign rally fix?

I guess he could campaign for other Republicans, but it would still be 95% about himself. I wonder whose campaign will want to pay for that?
Ivanka 2024
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Old 6th October 2019, 08:21 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by Joecool View Post
But welfare benefits might not be as generous as they were under Obama.

welfare recipients aren't hurting your wallet.

The protracted wars out east are though.

The big bailouts are.
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Old 6th October 2019, 06:55 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by This is The End View Post
Because 3 people were not something that means that person number 4 is also not something.

That's some solid logic you have there.
What's interesting is that all of those Republican Presidents mentioned in that post were corrupt AF.
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Old 6th October 2019, 07:04 PM   #131
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According to Professor Allan Lichtman, who's predicted correctly the last 9 presidential elections (Gore-Bush was basically a tie), thinks Democrats have to push forward with impeachment right away....or else things look good for Trump and the Republicans.

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Old 6th October 2019, 10:00 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
According to Professor Allan Lichtman, who's predicted correctly the last 9 presidential elections (Gore-Bush was basically a tie), thinks Democrats have to push forward with impeachment right away....or else things look good for Trump and the Republicans.

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I AGREE

The Republicans are going to go all out on Biden or whoever either way.
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Old 10th October 2019, 10:07 PM   #133
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The closer we get to 2020 the more concerning this possibility seems. I hope I'm wrong bigly.
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Old 11th October 2019, 05:51 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Republicans will write articles about the demise of the Democratic party, and will look foolish when the Donks come back strong in the mid-term election of 2022. Democrats will wail and moan about this meaning the end of the world, and will look foolish when Trump hands over the keys to the White House to his successor, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The dems have a tendency to screw up from within, currently I havent seen it seriously discussed but if Hillary were to run in 2020 she would almost guarantee a Trump win, not because of him, but by alienating Biden and the others and imploding the Democratic effort.
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Old 11th October 2019, 11:23 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by rockysmith76 View Post
The dems have a tendency to screw up from within, currently I havent seen it seriously discussed but if Hillary were to run in 2020 she would almost guarantee a Trump win, not because of him, but by alienating Biden and the others and imploding the Democratic effort.
Sheesh,can you let go of Hilary?
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Old 11th October 2019, 11:47 AM   #136
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The right wing needs its Emmanuel Goldstein...
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Old 11th October 2019, 12:24 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Sheesh,can you let go of Hilary?
No. She's all they've got.
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Old 11th October 2019, 12:42 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
It's inconceivable that Trump could win the popular vote. Do you think he would actually pick up votes from people who voted for Clinton last time? But it's certainly conceivable that he could win the Electoral College, the Repubs would keep the Senate, and maybe -- maybe -- they could take back the House. The immediate outcome would be that there would be no restraints on whatever Trump wanted to do: No investigations, no threat of impeachment, no challenge of unfit appointees. A Constitutional amendment would require approval of three-quarters of the states. That would be a little iffy. But he could literally do just about anything else and get away with it.

Related articles:

https://www.salon.com/2019/09/21/tru...eturn-lawsuit/

And also:

https://www.salon.com/2019/08/26/tru...him-seriously/
Wouldn't get Clinton voters, but after this great first term new voters may register and vote - in my minds eye, voters looking something like this:

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Old 11th October 2019, 04:49 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Just a thought experiment, I hope.
Assume:
Trump has a solid win in both the EC and popular vote.
Republicans get to 60 Senators.
Republicans retake the House.
Republicans increase their control of governorships and state legislatures.

What happens?
Constitutional amendment to remove presidential term limits?
Selling off the National Parks?
Declaring war on Ukraine?
Ok, maybe those are ridiculous. Or not. What do you think might happen?
Trump did pretty well in the EC in 2016. Rs got both houses. Despite all predictions to the contrary, the world did not end and the country's doing well. And the world won't end if/when that happens again.

I'm sure it will cause a record number of Internet head explodies though.
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Old 11th October 2019, 06:27 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
According to Professor Allan Lichtman, who's predicted correctly the last 9 presidential elections (Gore-Bush was basically a tie), thinks Democrats have to push forward with impeachment right away....or else things look good for Trump and the Republicans.

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Said a different way, he believes that the Dems cannot beat Trump at the ballot box. Their best hope is to impeach. That isnít going so well either.
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Old 11th October 2019, 11:52 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
Ivanka 2024
You mean like Hilary Clinton
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Old Yesterday, 04:36 PM   #142
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The Democratic civil war will not end anytime soon.

The chances of Donald Trump getting re-elected look surprisingly good. In Iowa Bernie Sanders is the only Democratic candidate who beats Trump, according to Emerson Polling.

But the close numbers really say a lot about Iowans imo.
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Old Yesterday, 04:38 PM   #143
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Having given the question much thought: If Trump wins in 2020, progressives will start killing people.
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Old Yesterday, 04:40 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
The Democratic civil war will not end anytime soon.

The chances of Donald Trump getting re-elected look surprisingly good. In Iowa Bernie Sanders is the only Democratic candidate who beats Trump, according to Emerson Polling.

But the close numbers really say a lot about Iowans imo.

Yeah,, only Bernie can beat Trump.

Sorry I think just the opposite. Bernie would be the easiest candidate for Trump to beat.
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Old Yesterday, 04:46 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
According to Professor Allan Lichtman, who's predicted correctly the last 9 presidential elections (Gore-Bush was basically a tie), thinks Democrats have to push forward with impeachment right away....or else things look good for Trump and the Republicans.

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Lichtman is also predicting that Donnie will be out of office before the 2020 election.
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Old Yesterday, 04:48 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Yeah,, only Bernie can beat Trump.

Sorry I think just the opposite. Bernie would be the easiest candidate for Trump to beat.
Easiest? No.

These also look promising.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6250.html

Biden is bland. He is riding Obama's wave. He's embroiled in the Ukraine accusations, whatever you may think of them.

Sanders is the safer bet.
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Old Yesterday, 05:44 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Easiest? No.

These also look promising.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6250.html

Biden is bland. He is riding Obama's wave. He's embroiled in the Ukraine accusations, whatever you may think of them.

Sanders is the safer bet.
And I can think of a number of Dems candidates who are safer then both.
I think Bernie is just off far to the left and comes off too much like the eternal 60's radical to win in November. If you want a progressive, Warren is a much better choice. her policies are really not that different then Bernies..I think she want to go a bit slower then Bernie does..and I think she can win over moderates and centrists, something Bernie cannot do.
And, in the whatever you might think department. Bernie's health is just as much an issue as Biden Ukraine involvement.
I really think you overerstimate the size of any "Hidden" progressive vote out there.
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Old Yesterday, 05:50 PM   #148
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2016 was an anti-HRC vote
2020 will be an anti-Trump vote.

Who the opposing candidate is won't matter much.
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Old Yesterday, 05:56 PM   #149
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
2016 was an anti-HRC vote
2020 will be an anti-Trump vote.

Who the opposing candidate is won't matter much.
I disagree. I tink there are people who voted for Trump last time who are disillusioned, but will not vote for somebody as far to the left as the more extreme...by US Standards (only ones which matter as far as elections are concerned) Democratic candidates are.
If nothing else, fear of losing their medical coverage under Bernie's "Medicare For All" plan could be the deciding factor.
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Old Yesterday, 05:59 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Having given the question much thought: If Trump wins in 2020, progressives will start killing people.
So why haven't they at any other time someone predicted this?
Sorry, but the fact suggest that violence is not a standard tool of the American Left.
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Old Yesterday, 07:59 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
And I can think of a number of Dems candidates who are safer then both.
I think Bernie is just off far to the left and comes off too much like the eternal 60's radical to win in November. If you want a progressive, Warren is a much better choice. her policies are really not that different then Bernies..I think she want to go a bit slower then Bernie does..and I think she can win over moderates and centrists, something Bernie cannot do.
And, in the whatever you might think department. Bernie's health is just as much an issue as Biden Ukraine involvement.
I really think you overerstimate the size of any "Hidden" progressive vote out there.
The thing about Warren is yes she at first glance seems to covers broader ground than Sanders or Biden. Not sure whether that really is the case, but policy wise she's in between, just to the right of Sanders.

As the Iowa poll hints, Bernie Sanders has that populist appeal that Warren does not have, something that could help him against Trump by stealing some of his undecideds and apolitical voters. He's had more time and spent more energy to get his name out there after all.
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Old Yesterday, 08:19 PM   #152
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Prestige, during the Vietnam War, there was a Census. The Administration wanted to make sure the soldiers in the field were counted, so they used the resident state they had put on their papers as their residency for the purposes of the Census.
Problem was: a vastly disproportionate number of soldiers had put Delaware as their place of residency, because of a rumor that this would get you your pay tax-free.
.....
Are you sure about this? I would think their state of residence would be where they were living when they joined the service, or where their family lived, or maybe even where their next of kin lived. What address did they use in Delaware? I would think the paymasters would have shut this down pretty quick. You can't just say "I live in Delaware" without any connection to the state.
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Old Yesterday, 10:25 PM   #153
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
So why haven't they at any other time someone predicted this?

Sorry, but the fact suggest that violence is not a standard tool of the American Left.
"Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats."

- H. L. Mencken

I think it could be the last straw for a lot of people.
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Old Yesterday, 11:22 PM   #154
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
"Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats."

- H. L. Mencken

I think it could be the last straw for a lot of people.
we had so many last straws, this wouldn't be different: Trump has already done tremendous damage when the GOP was actively backing him instead of just pretending to. The SC has already flipped.

The only thing I can see that would cause actual civil unrest (in the form of General Strikes etc.) would be clear evidence of Vote Rigging that got Trump re-elected.
But then, every true American should stand up against that.
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Old Yesterday, 11:34 PM   #155
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Are you sure about this? I would think their state of residence would be where they were living when they joined the service, or where their family lived, or maybe even where their next of kin lived. What address did they use in Delaware? I would think the paymasters would have shut this down pretty quick. You can't just say "I live in Delaware" without any connection to the state.
As an effect of this "I live in a 'tax-free-State" claim, in the next census, some states lost seats because they had clearly been overcounted in 1970.


This NPR article illustrates how the Trump administration fails to commit to using only the naked Census data to do their apportionment:

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/14/74993...=1571467095597

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