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Tags donald trump , impeachment , rudy giuliani , Trump controversies

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Old 25th September 2019, 05:12 AM   #121
smartcooky
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Originally Posted by Ian Osborne View Post
Could you go into a little more detail on these? There's been so many accusations of wrong-doing by Trump I've lost track of what he's done.
The Great Zaganza has added some detail on all except two

8. Violations of the campaign finance laws
... payments to Karen McDougal and Stormy Daniels to keep them quiet in the run up the 2016 election.

9. Real estate fraud - multiple counts
... https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/11/n...ank-trump.html
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Old 25th September 2019, 05:17 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
So Trump comes out with his own, new and improved, election scandal. Straight-forward and easily digestible corruption. A political scandal that even the dimmest American can easily get their mind around.
Which is why I'm back to 50/50 about whether the Senate will cooperate with impeachment. This is clear, present, plainly illegal, and only involves Trump. If they wanted to cut him out, there will never be a better opportunity to be shocked, shocked at the crimes Mr. Trump committed with minimal accusatory fallout. They can throw him under the bus, write off the next election and go back to pretending to be about moral integrity until the next proto-fascist goosesteps his way into power.

That also means if they don't do it now they're in it till the end, come what may.
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Old 25th September 2019, 05:26 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
After three years of desperate searching for The One Thing, it'll be interesting to see what the Dems actually settle on for their big play.
My impression is that they don't have to desperately search: things just seem to be falling into their laps at the moment.
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Old 25th September 2019, 05:29 AM   #124
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Old 25th September 2019, 05:38 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Bill Clinton was lucky he was president in the 90's and not now, because I think the culture has shifted on whether what he did was impeachable or not. Sure, he lied about a blowjob, but that's not really it. He used his considerable power in an attempt to derail a credible accusation of sexual harassment. Hiding his relationship with Lewinsky was not just to avoid personal embarrassment for a one-time affair, but to hide his longtime habit of engaging in inappropriate relationships with his subordinates, which was extremely relevant to civil suit.
Except of course it wasn't. Such information is rarely legally relevant to cases as they should be decided on their own facts not other facts. If he wasn't president they would have objected to the question and it wouldn't have been allowed. But politics cuts in more than one way in such cases.

And remember the final result of the case was being thrown out as the judge found that even given all of jones's claims it did not rise to the level of sexual harassment.
Quote:
This scandal has not aged well in the me too era. Clinton was a gross creep that used his power to shield himself from the consequences of his actions.
Sure, though I am not sure the law has changed enough to make it subject to sexual harassment settlements.
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Old 25th September 2019, 06:31 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Speaking of reality... It's a fact that Trump's purported high crimes and misdemeanors are in an entirely different league than those of Clinton. You know that of course. Drawing parallels concerning the underlying facts would be starkly anti-reality. I hope and assume that's not what you're doing.

Maybe your inferences about the electoral outcome are right. Maybe not. It's premature to declare future reality, oozing confidence no less. It's concerning though, that's for sure.
That's a very interesting observation, and one I don't have time to address fully right now. You are correct that there are huge differences between what Trump did and what Clinton did.

I think the differences are so large that the differences ar blocking out the similarities for many people. More later.
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Old 25th September 2019, 06:37 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I think the differences are so large that the differences ar blocking out the similarities for many people. More later.
That might suggest that any such similarities are insignificant compared to the differences.

But, let's see. Similarities:
  • Both are white
  • Both are men
  • Both are President at the time of their impending impeachments
  • Both's parties control the Senate but not the house at the time.
Damn, you may have a point. Clearly, this is just two sides of the same coin, amirite?
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Old 25th September 2019, 08:01 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
7. Russian interference in the 2016 election
Trump Tower Meeting, telling Flynn to go after HRC emails, coordination of release of Podesta Emails via Roger Stone
That might be a tricky one...

If I remember, the Mueller report concluded that the Russians did interfere in the campaign to the benefit of Trump, and that there were multiple contacts between Trump associates and the Russians, but thought that many of the principles were too dumb to understand it was a crime, and that they found no evidence that Trump was actually informed of what was going on. (I think its likely he did know... just that they don't have any transcripts or eye witnesses to say "Yeah, I told Trump about meeting the Ruskies".

That doesn't mean that it can't be part of the impeachment proceedings, just that it would need more work than other avenues of corruption in order to justify it.
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Old 25th September 2019, 08:06 AM   #129
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Oh, here's another crime that they could add... destruction of documents, in violation of the Presidential Records Act.

From: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...-system-635164
Under the Presidential Records Act, the White House must preserve all memos, letters, emails and papers that the president touches... But White House aides realized early on that they were unable to stop Trump from ripping up paper after he was done with it and throwing it in the trash or on the floor...
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Old 25th September 2019, 08:09 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Quote:
Time is running out for Flynn if he thinks he'll get that Pardon.
Maybe he should tell his stories to the Impeachment Inquiry instead...
Flynn is now saying he won't cooperate; he'll take the 5th.
"only GUILTY people, plead the 5th"
- Donald Trump
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Old 25th September 2019, 08:15 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Oh, here's another crime that they could add... destruction of documents, in violation of the Presidential Records Act.

From: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...-system-635164
Under the Presidential Records Act, the White House must preserve all memos, letters, emails and papers that the president touches... But White House aides realized early on that they were unable to stop Trump from ripping up paper after he was done with it and throwing it in the trash or on the floor...
or eating it, according to Omorosa
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Old 25th September 2019, 08:16 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
"only GUILTY people, plead the 5th"
- Donald Trump
The fifth in civil cases and presumably then in impeachment is kind of complex, as you have to either refuse to talk about an issue entirely or you can not use it.
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Old 25th September 2019, 08:24 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Quote:
Oh, here's another crime that they could add... destruction of documents, in violation of the Presidential Records Act.

From: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...-system-635164
Under the Presidential Records Act, the White House must preserve all memos, letters, emails and papers that the president touches... But White House aides realized early on that they were unable to stop Trump from ripping up paper after he was done with it and throwing it in the trash or on the floor...
or eating it, according to Omorosa
You know, with any other president, the suggestion they would eat official documents would seem like a joke. And lets face it Omorosa doesn't exactly have a strong reputation.

But since there are reports of Trump turning documents into confetti and leaving them on the floor, her story becomes somehow believable.

I hadn't heard that accusation before, but googled it..... here's a reference:

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-ate-s...e-aide-1069399
Former White House aide Omarosa Manigault Newman has said she walked in on President Donald Trump eating paper after a meeting with lawyer Michael Cohen, in what she believed was an effort to destroy sensitive information.

Since Omarosa is not the only person to claim Trump destroys documents, it would be a fairly easy case to prove. (Although admittedly it is fairly minor, compared to Trump's other crimes.)
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Old 25th September 2019, 09:05 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
You know, with any other president, the suggestion they would eat official documents would seem like a joke. And lets face it Omorosa doesn't exactly have a strong reputation.

But since there are reports of Trump turning documents into confetti and leaving them on the floor, her story becomes somehow believable.

I hadn't heard that accusation before, but googled it..... here's a reference:

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-ate-s...e-aide-1069399
Former White House aide Omarosa Manigault Newman has said she walked in on President Donald Trump eating paper after a meeting with lawyer Michael Cohen, in what she believed was an effort to destroy sensitive information.

Since Omarosa is not the only person to claim Trump destroys documents, it would be a fairly easy case to prove. (Although admittedly it is fairly minor, compared to Trump's other crimes.)
Its such a TV mob boss thing to do. He so desperately wants to be seen as a big shot and a tough guy, he becomes a cartoon.
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Old 25th September 2019, 10:01 AM   #135
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The Ukraine phone call issue needs to have a proven crime established if anyone expects this impeachment effort to not blow up in everyone's face. Just saying I find it about as likely to be successful as the odds that anyone is going to pay attention to Joe Bidens' openly bragging about interfering with an foreign investigation into his son over that shell company he had....
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Old 25th September 2019, 10:05 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by Grizzly Bear View Post
The Ukraine phone call issue needs to have a proven crime established if anyone expects this impeachment effort to not blow up in everyone's face. Just saying I find it about as likely to be successful as the odds that anyone is going to pay attention to Joe Bidens' openly bragging about interfering with an foreign investigation into his son over that shell company he had....


Well, for starters, Rudy broke the Logan Act and is part of a criminal conspiracy (run by Trump) to extort the government of Ukraine.
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Old 25th September 2019, 10:07 AM   #137
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Going after a political opponent directly is exactly what Nixon did - but he had the sense not to talk to others directly, letting his henchmen do the work.

The Ukraine Affair is definitely worse than Watergate.
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Old 25th September 2019, 11:50 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
That might be a tricky one...

If I remember, the Mueller report concluded that the Russians did interfere in the campaign to the benefit of Trump, and that there were multiple contacts between Trump associates and the Russians, but thought that many of the principles were too dumb to understand it was a crime, and that they found no evidence that Trump was actually informed of what was going on. (I think its likely he did know... just that they don't have any transcripts or eye witnesses to say "Yeah, I told Trump about meeting the Ruskies".

That doesn't mean that it can't be part of the impeachment proceedings, just that it would need more work than other avenues of corruption in order to justify it.
Firstly, the list was about the "investigations" not about what some of us think he is guilty of........
Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Donald Trump is being investigated for a raft of serious crimes and law breaches, including


Secondly, the principals might well have been too dumb to realise they were committing a crime, but as it says in legal principles... "ignorantia legis neminem excusat"

https://definitions.uslegal.com/i/ig...minem-excusat/
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Old 25th September 2019, 11:55 AM   #139
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Apparenlty the Dems are going to concentrate on the Ukraine accusations..IMHO a wise move.
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Old 25th September 2019, 11:57 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by Grizzly Bear View Post
The Ukraine phone call issue needs to have a proven crime established if anyone expects this impeachment effort to not blow up in everyone's face. Just saying I find it about as likely to be successful as the odds that anyone is going to pay attention to Joe Bidens' openly bragging about interfering with an foreign investigation into his son over that shell company he had....
I disagree. I think politically today's revelation is devastating to Trump.
I still think the Dems would be wise to have the hearings,but avoid actual indictment until after the elections.
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Old 25th September 2019, 11:58 AM   #141
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Apparenlty the Dems are going to concentrate on the Ukraine accusations..IMHO a wise move.
I'm iffy on this particular issue being "the one" but I agree completely that focusing on a single thing and not trying to impeach Trump for... well basically *gestures widely at the last 3 years* no matter how accurate that might be is better.

We have to find a way cut the legs out from under Trump and his supporters Gish Gallop / Get out of this outrage by doing a new outrage to distract everybody strategy.

On that note... everybody does now that Trump is probably going to do something really, really out there soon right?
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Old 25th September 2019, 11:58 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
Its such a TV mob boss thing to do. He so desperately wants to be seen as a big shot and a tough guy, he becomes a cartoon.
I think the nickname Fredo needs to be taken away from Trump, Jr and given to his father.
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Old 25th September 2019, 12:29 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Apparenlty the Dems are going to concentrate on the Ukraine accusations..IMHO a wise move.
Possibly. Concentrating on just this crime will allow the democrats to focus more. It also has the advantage of giving some cover to republicans who previously supported Trump to jump ship without having to excuse their previous support. (i.e. to keep them having to explain why they were OK with Trump during the Mueller investigation but not now...)

Of course, if they don't refer to any of Trump's previous crimes with the impeachment, I can imagine the Trump response: "They failed with Mueller so they're trying again".
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Old 25th September 2019, 12:44 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Apparenlty the Dems are going to concentrate on the Ukraine accusations..IMHO a wise move.
Pointless, republicans approve of his ukrainian actions and he safe and will claim exoneration when the senate clears him like with the mueller report. It will all die down and nothing will change at best.

Well we will at least get more properly conservative judges to get the christian state that all conservatives know america was founded to be.
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Old 25th September 2019, 12:49 PM   #145
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Roberts still occasionally has attacks of acute morality from time to time, it's right now the only thing keeping SCOTUS from being totally partisan. Our best hope is he forces McConnell to put it up for a vote once it makes it to the Senate and Mitch won't play his game with the Head Judge of SCOTUS.

Monkeys will sprout wings and fly out of my butt before the Senate actually votes to convict him, but at least force all the Republicans in the Senate to crap or get off the pot and unequivocally throw in or out with Trump.

And I hope the Dems are right that that will be enough.
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Old 25th September 2019, 12:51 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Roberts still occasionally has attacks of acute morality from time to time, it's right now the only thing keeping SCOTUS from being totally partisan. Our best hope is he forces McConnell to put it up for a vote once it makes it to the Senate and Mitch won't play his game with the Head Judge of SCOTUS.

Monkeys will sprout wings and fly out of my butt before the Senate actually votes to convict him, but at least force all the Republicans in the Senate to crap or get off the pot and unequivocally throw in or out with Trump.

And I hope the Dems are right that that will be enough.
This seems like a remarkably optimistic outlook.
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Old 25th September 2019, 01:08 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Roberts still occasionally has attacks of acute morality from time to time, it's right now the only thing keeping SCOTUS from being totally partisan. Our best hope is he forces McConnell to put it up for a vote once it makes it to the Senate and Mitch won't play his game with the Head Judge of SCOTUS.
And if he does? What can Robert do?
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Old 25th September 2019, 01:13 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by Grizzly Bear View Post
The Ukraine phone call issue needs to have a proven crime established if anyone expects this impeachment effort to not blow up in everyone's face.
Withholding military aid makes it a bit muddy whether it was bribery or extortion, but the distinction doesn't matter. He's confessed to doing whatever you want to call it, and all but the very dumbest trumpers know why he did it.

Originally Posted by Grizzly Bear View Post
Just saying I find it about as likely to be successful as the odds that anyone is going to pay attention to Joe Bidens' openly bragging about interfering with an foreign investigation into his son over that shell company he had....
That's not what happened. Did you ever notice that Donald Trump lies a lot?
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Old 25th September 2019, 01:15 PM   #149
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Well, for starters, Rudy broke the Logan Act and is part of a criminal conspiracy (run by Trump) to extort the government of Ukraine.
The call transcripts dont support your idea that they were extorted to provide information about Biden.
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Old 25th September 2019, 01:15 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Withholding military aid makes it a bit muddy whether it was bribery or extortion, but the distinction doesn't matter.
It matters a lot when "You can't do anything about wrongdoing until you define the exact kind of wrongdoing" pedantics are going to be a major argumentative factor in this.

The Trump, the Republicans, and their fanbase will have us arguing bribery vs sparkling extortion from now until the walls fall.
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Old 25th September 2019, 01:42 PM   #151
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by Grizzly Bear View Post
Quote:
Well, for starters, Rudy broke the Logan Act and is part of a criminal conspiracy (run by Trump) to extort the government of Ukraine.
The call transcripts dont support your idea that they were extorted to provide information about Biden.
Doesn't matter if there was extortion or bribery involved.

The Logan act makes it illegal for private citizens to negotiate on behalf of the government. Giuliani is Trump's personal lawyer, not a member of the White House staff, so by Giuliani talking to the Ukranian government, he is violating the Logan act. And Trump, because he sent Giuliani (without first making him an official government employee/diplomat) is complicit in the crime.

The nature of what was discussed is not important. Even if Giuliani were discussing something innocuous as "Lets agree that are puppies cute" it would still be considered illegal.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinio...dy-ncna1058196
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Old 25th September 2019, 01:51 PM   #152
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
It matters a lot when "You can't do anything about wrongdoing until you define the exact kind of wrongdoing" pedantics are going to be a major argumentative factor in this.
It's not pedantic argumentation. It's a fundamental principle of criminal justice. The state can't just go on vague fishing expeditions based on suspicion of wrongdoing. Even a search warrant requires a probable cause. Even a murder investigation requires a dead body and some articulable indications of foul play.

Indeed, the whole point of grand juries is to make sure the state takes the time to actually nail down their justification of a specific crime and specific suspect, before going to town on that suspect's life.

So no, as a practical matter, and as a matter of rule of law, you can't do anything about wrongdoing without first defining the wrongdoing you're trying to do something about.
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Old 25th September 2019, 02:36 PM   #153
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's not pedantic argumentation. It's a fundamental principle of criminal justice. The state can't just go on vague fishing expeditions based on suspicion of wrongdoing. Even a search warrant requires a probable cause. Even a murder investigation requires a dead body and some articulable indications of foul play.

Indeed, the whole point of grand juries is to make sure the state takes the time to actually nail down their justification of a specific crime and specific suspect, before going to town on that suspect's life.

So no, as a practical matter, and as a matter of rule of law, you can't do anything about wrongdoing without first defining the wrongdoing you're trying to do something about.
Which has squat to do with the issues at hand. A president can be impeached for doing nothing at all, if circumstances required that he should have in faithful execution of his duties. Anyway, I'd call what Trump did extortion, but I guess we'll see. And whatever they call it, Republicans will say it wasn't that. Screw 'em. If we're going to cower before the right-wing ******** machine, we might as well just ******* give up now. But I haven't.
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Old 25th September 2019, 02:48 PM   #154
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Possibly. Concentrating on just this crime will allow the democrats to focus more. It also has the advantage of giving some cover to republicans who previously supported Trump to jump ship without having to excuse their previous support. (i.e. to keep them having to explain why they were OK with Trump during the Mueller investigation but not now...)

Of course, if they don't refer to any of Trump's previous crimes with the impeachment, I can imagine the Trump response: "They failed with Mueller so they're trying again".
District Attorneys are careful to limit their indictments to one crime at a time. Throwing the kitchen sink in a case is never a good idea.
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Old 25th September 2019, 03:14 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Which has squat to do with the issues at hand. A president can be impeached for doing nothing at all, if circumstances required that he should have in faithful execution of his duties.
Why add the "if" part?

Chief Justice Rehnquist, who presided over the last presidential impeachment trial, famously had written a book on the subject of impeachment. His basic conclusion in the book was that, when all is said and done, it's a political process. If you can get 50%+1 in the House of Representatives, you can impeach. If you can get 2/3 in the Senate, you can convict. That's it. Those are the necessary and sufficient conditions to impeach, as a matter of law.

However, the Constitution says "high crimes and misdemeanors", and very strong tradition holds that that's the only reason for impeaching. In practice, that means there is no way you can get a conviction unless you can convince 2/3 of the Senate that the president has committed a crime. In practice, the only way to get2/3 of the Senate is to convince the majority of voters in 2/3 of the states that the president has committed a crime, and to do so in sufficiently large numbers that senators are afraid to oppose the will of the voters.

So, if you want to impeach, convince the majority of the public that Donald Trump has committed real, actual, serious, crimes. If you do that, he'll be out.

Good luck with that.

Maybe something will turn up.

Last edited by Meadmaker; 25th September 2019 at 03:15 PM.
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Old 25th September 2019, 03:19 PM   #156
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A naïve question. Can someone tells me the odds of him being impeached with what is known at this time? If I bet on it? How do I bet?
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Old 25th September 2019, 03:21 PM   #157
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Roberts still occasionally has attacks of acute morality from time to time, it's right now the only thing keeping SCOTUS from being totally partisan. Our best hope is he forces McConnell to put it up for a vote once it makes it to the Senate and Mitch won't play his game with the Head Judge of SCOTUS.

Monkeys will sprout wings and fly out of my butt before the Senate actually votes to convict him, but at least force all the Republicans in the Senate to crap or get off the pot and unequivocally throw in or out with Trump.

And I hope the Dems are right that that will be enough.
To be successful, the Senate doesn't have to convict him. The pro US side just needs to get enough Republican defectors to where it's not a party-line vote. For this to be a plus in Trump's campaign it has to be purely partisan. Collins, Romney, Rubio and Cruz are possible pro American votes. Kennedy has indicated concern over Trump's lack of respect for the law. The timing here isn't perfect. However, the closer a vote in the Senate is to the election the better for the Country. Trump and his anti American supporters won't be able to mount primary challenges or third party challenges against senators who vote for conviction.

A bipartisan simple majority will be enough to weaken Trump going into the general election.
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Old 25th September 2019, 03:42 PM   #158
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Which has squat to do with the issues at hand. A president can be impeached for doing nothing at all, if circumstances required that he should have in faithful execution of his duties. Anyway, I'd call what Trump did extortion, but I guess we'll see. And whatever they call it, Republicans will say it wasn't that. Screw 'em. If we're going to cower before the right-wing ******** machine, we might as well just ******* give up now. But I haven't.
Fair points.
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Old 25th September 2019, 03:58 PM   #159
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Originally Posted by wasapi View Post
A naïve question. Can someone tells me the odds of him being impeached with what is known at this time? If I bet on it? How do I bet?
You can go to a "prediction market". The one whose name I know is predictit.com.

Those mimic futures markets in a way. There is a proposition that, if it comes true, is worth $1.00. If not, it is worth 0. The price of these prediction markets is set by people willing to buy and sell at certain prices, much like futures markets or stock markets, so the price fluctuates. The "odds" are then the ratio of $1.00 to the price of the futures contract.

I went over to predictit.com today, just before posting here, and the closing price yesterday for a 1.00 contract that he will be impeached during his first term was fifty cents. That means the market's collective wisdom is that there's a 50/50 chance he will be impeached. That's impeached, not convicted. The price of a "convicted" future was fifteen cents.

You can buy a "yes" or a "no", vote. So, if I was very certain that Trump will not be convicted, I could buy a "no" conviction vote for 85 cents. If Jan 20, 2021 rolls around and Trump has not been convicted, I get $1.00.

Over the years I have occasionally looked into prediction markets, and I do not know the legalities of them. It's kind of like investing. It's kind of like gambling. I don't know whether or not it's legal, so I haven't ever put money down.

ETA: I found a better chart, that shows today's prices. The "yes" contract on impeachment has gone up to 59 cents. Bhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIty the way, these contracts can be bought and sold. A person who bought a 50 cent contract yesterday can sell it today for 59 cents.

ETA2: I read a bit more about predictit, here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt It appears to be legal, but the number of traders might be limited. You might not be able to get in on the action.

Last edited by Meadmaker; 25th September 2019 at 04:11 PM.
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Old 25th September 2019, 04:52 PM   #160
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
...However, the Constitution says "high crimes and misdemeanors"....

This phrase is often misinterpreted to mean crimes and misdemeanors that go beyond the ordinary. A high crime must be worse than a regular one, right?


In fact, the phrase means crimes and misdemeanors committed while occupying a "high" office, e.g., the presidency or other high office.
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