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Old 16th December 2015, 10:51 AM   #2081
MRC_Hans
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Tomboy,
- Would you consider what was found in the Raes samples as a little bit of evidence of repair in the Raes sample?
See? He does it again. Tries to elicit some little concession, which will then translate to something like "repairs were done in the same area as the C14 sample".

There is no other reason to ask that question, because logically it is totally irrelevant what is or is not in the Raes sample.

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Old 16th December 2015, 11:56 AM   #2082
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Tomboy,
- Would you consider what was found in the Raes samples as a little bit of evidence of repair in the Raes sample?

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Old 16th December 2015, 12:18 PM   #2083
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Slowvehicle,
- If I understand what you're saying, my answer is that "preponderance of evidence" is not limited to a "trial" situation. It's like the basic concept in probability, and applies to any question of likelihood -- such as, "How likely is it that the shroud is authentic?"
- The word "trump" normally refers to a bi-variate situation, where "degree" is not taken into account. That is not the case when we're considering the probability of an event -- which is what we're considering here.

Jabba,
- you are standing on a sidewalk at noon, enjoying the sunshine. The sidewalk is dry, there isn't a cloud in the sky, and no trace of moisture in the air.
- someone phones you from 50 miles away and tells you that they think they hear thunder.
- someone else tells you that if someone is holding a large and invisible (or nearly invisible) umbrella over you then it could be raining.
- someone says that it has rained there in the past.
- several people say that it might be raining somewhere else.
- on the preponderance of the evidence, how likely is it that it is raining right now where you are?
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Old 16th December 2015, 12:55 PM   #2084
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Tomboy,
- Would you consider what was found in the Raes samples as a little bit of evidence of repair in the Raes sample?
How about you make that argument and explain why what was done and what was found should constitute evidence of repair. For bonus points in honesty, do so while addressing critique of the Raes samples as evidence made by your ever patient interlocutors in this thread.

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Old 16th December 2015, 12:58 PM   #2085
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And ain't it dandy you are currently focused on what "the preponderance of evidence" means. A neat red herring to pick at, forget for a bit, returning to the stinky carcase when embarrassed by the stark reality that you have no evidence at all.
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Old 16th December 2015, 03:26 PM   #2086
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Originally Posted by Slowvehicle View Post
My Dear Mr. Savage:
You have demonstrated your infelicity with probabilities in your "immortality" thread...
Slowvehicle,
- I'm not sure what you mean by "infelicity" here.
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Old 16th December 2015, 03:29 PM   #2087
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Carbon Dating/Doubts/Repair?/M&P/Entry #2

Originally Posted by Slowvehicle View Post
...
Reality is not decided by "preponderance of evidence"...
- Reality isn't, but probability is.
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Old 16th December 2015, 03:34 PM   #2088
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Slowvehicle,
- I'm not sure what you mean by "infelicity" here.
My Dear mr. Savage:

An "infelicity" is a remark, phrase, or usage that is inappropriate, inept, and/or unapt.

See, for example, your deeply-held belief that you may define both A and ~A in a condition.

Through it all, I remain,

Lexicographically yours, &ct.
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Old 16th December 2015, 03:36 PM   #2089
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Reality isn't, but probability is.
My Dear Mr. Savage:

You will be providing support for this statement?

...that would be refreshing.

I remain,

Hopefully yours, &ct.
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Old 16th December 2015, 03:40 PM   #2090
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
..

- At any rate, I still think that the M&P papers constitute evidence, and for now, I'll keep trying to show why.
Look at that. You allowed yourself to be distracted, what was the probability of that happening?




(hint - it's vanishingly close to 1 as you have been backed into a corner)
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Old 16th December 2015, 03:41 PM   #2091
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Reality isn't, but probability is.
This is not a probabilistic comparison, for the reasons already belabored by myself and others, and assiduously ignored by you. If one is able to observe the reality of something, then no amount of probabilistic conjuration or preponderant hand-waving to the contrary changes it.
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Old 16th December 2015, 03:42 PM   #2092
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
I'm not sure what you mean by "infelicity" here.
Why the sudden evaporation of your proficiency with the dictionary? It never failed you before when you were trying to equivocate around your critics' statements. Why does it fail you now in comprehending them?
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Old 16th December 2015, 04:39 PM   #2093
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Reality isn't, but probability is.
Link or it never happened.
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Old 16th December 2015, 04:41 PM   #2094
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Originally Posted by John Jones View Post
Link or it never happened.
Well, chances are...
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Old 16th December 2015, 06:43 PM   #2095
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Reality isn't, but probability is.
So, where is this probably? You can't even call into question the carbon dating. Show us the probability.
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Old 16th December 2015, 06:54 PM   #2096
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Reality isn't, but probability is.
Jabba, let me ask you this:

Reality isn't what? Probability is what?

What were you talking about a handful of posts back?

Any idea?
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Old 16th December 2015, 09:14 PM   #2097
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Evidence of preponderance

You know how when you repeat a word or phrase over and over again, it loses all meaning? That's what happened to me when "preponderance of evidence" came up for the eleventy-billionth time. I had to look it up to get some perspective, and this is what I found at dictionary.law.com (I only copied the relevant bits and highlighted the parts the grabbed my attention):

Quote:
This preponderance is based on the more convincing evidence and its probable truth or accuracy, and not on the amount of evidence. Thus, one clearly knowledgeable witness may provide a preponderance of evidence over a dozen witnesses with hazy testimony...

If we're going with the Matlock scenario, the shroudies have contributed only feathers and hot air to their side of the scale.

Meanwhile, back in reality...

Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Reality isn't, but probability is.

Wow. Deep. Pass the dutchie.
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Old 16th December 2015, 09:25 PM   #2098
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Reality isn't, but probability is.

Jabba,
- What is the probability that something that is impossible is true?
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Old 16th December 2015, 11:49 PM   #2099
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What a merry dance. Ive almost forgotten your last failed attempt to provide evidence for authenticity.
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Old 17th December 2015, 09:16 AM   #2100
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Tomboy,
- Would you consider what was found in the Raes samples as a little bit of evidence of repair in the Raes sample?
Hi Jabba.

I'm not at all sure why you're asking me for my opinion about any of this*. I'm not a scientist or an expert in any relevant field of study, and plenty of the other participants in this discussion whom you regularly dismiss and ignore have done far more research into the matter than I and are more knowledgeable. Whether I agree with you or not isn't going to change the evidence.

But no, a few stray cotton fibers are in no way evidence of a repair or patch of any kind.

Can you explain to me why you think a few stray cotton fibers are evidence of repair and why that would be relevant to the issue of the date of origin of the Shroud? The Raes sample wasn't the piece that was carbon dated, and the piece that was carbon dated was meticulously inspected by textile (and other) experts who were specifically looking for any sort of aberration that would make it inappropriate for testing.

Originally Posted by John Jones View Post
Don't fall for it Tomboy, If you answer in the slightest bit affirmative, he'll misquoted you as supporting him. He's been caught doing that again and again. He's been caught misquoting peeps on his web site too.
No worries. I don’t speak up much but I’ve been following along through all of these threads. I’m trying to choose my words carefully so I don’t inadvertently leave any wiggle room that could be misinterpreted.

Jabba, for the record, please do not quote me or refer to anything I’ve said on your website. Thanks kindly in advance.

* Other than you seem to have this mistaken idea that if you can convince enough people to agree with you, your belief in the Shroud as the burial cloth of Jesus will be proven correct despite all of the facts and evidence to the contrary, but science doesn’t work that way.
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Old 17th December 2015, 09:48 AM   #2101
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Carbon Dating/Doubts/Repair?/M&P/Entry #2

Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Slowvehicle,
- If I understand what you're saying, my answer is that "preponderance of evidence" is not limited to a "trial" situation. It's like the basic concept in probability, and applies to any question of likelihood -- such as, "How likely is it that the shroud is authentic?"
- The word "trump" normally refers to a bi-variate situation, where "degree" is not taken into account. That is not the case when we're considering the probability of an event -- which is what we're considering here.
Originally Posted by Slowvehicle View Post
Reality is not decided by "preponderance of evidence"...
Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Reality isn't, but probability is.
Originally Posted by Slowvehicle View Post
My Dear Mr. Savage:
You will be providing support for this statement?
...that would be refreshing...
Slowvehicle,
- Again, I suspect that I'm not understanding your question. It seems obvious to me that the probability of something being true is determined by compiling the relevant information (evidence) available -- i.e., by determining the preponderance of available evidence. Do you find that statement meaningless, or doubtful?
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Old 17th December 2015, 10:02 AM   #2102
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Slowvehicle,
- Again, I suspect that I'm not understanding your question. It seems obvious to me that the probability of something being true is determined by compiling the relevant information (evidence) available -- i.e., by determining the preponderance of available evidence. Do you find that statement meaningless, or doubtful?
Stop being obtuse.
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Old 17th December 2015, 10:07 AM   #2103
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Again, I suspect that I'm not understanding your question.
You aren't, but it's already been answered at least twice by me and innumerable times by others. Asking it repeatedly while ignoring those answers is rude and disrespectful. Your critics question whether your obtuseness is deliberate. This sort of evasion helps them decide.

Quote:
It seems obvious to me that the probability of something being true is determined by compiling the relevant information (evidence) available -- i.e., by determining the preponderance of available evidence.
Asked and answered.

The probability of something being true is irrelevant when you can observe directly whether it's true or not. Any exercise aimed at estimating or computing the probability of a different outcome is moot and unprobative. And more than a little ridiculous.

Additionally your proposed estimation exercise is flawed because you propose to decide the preponderance not between evidence and evidence, but between evidence and conjecture. That is a qualitatively invalid comparison.

Quote:
Do you find that statement meaningless, or doubtful?
It's meaningless in the context of your argument, for the reasons patiently elaborated and assiduously ignored by you.
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Old 17th December 2015, 10:15 AM   #2104
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Slowvehicle,
- Again, I suspect that I'm not understanding your question. It seems obvious to me that the probability of something being true is determined by compiling the relevant information (evidence) available -- i.e., by determining the preponderance of available evidence. Do you find that statement meaningless, or doubtful?
My Dear Mr. Savage:

I see.

Brief derail:

You choose not to support your statement, but simply reiterate it, as if the problem were a deficiency in my understanding, instead of a deficiency in your unsupportable assertion.

I had actually hoped you might provide a citation or something to buttress your position.

Follow:

I do not find your statement "meaningless"; I find it incorrect.

I do not find your statement "doubtful"; I find it incorrect.

What, in your mind, is the "probability" of something that is impossible?



Instead of pursuing yet another attempt to avoid the question, why not simply marshal, and present, any evidence at all that the CIQ is, in fact, ~2000 years old?

I remain,

Determinedly yours &ct.
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Old 17th December 2015, 10:40 AM   #2105
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
It seems obvious to me that the probability of something being true is determined by compiling the relevant information (evidence) available -- i.e., by determining the preponderance of available evidence. Do you find that statement meaningless, or doubtful?

Jabba,
- What is the probability of something being true if it is impossible?
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Old 17th December 2015, 12:00 PM   #2106
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Slowvehicle,
- Again, I suspect that I'm not understanding your question. It seems obvious to me that the probability of something being true is determined by compiling the relevant information (evidence) available -- i.e., by determining the preponderance of available evidence. Do you find that statement meaningless, or doubtful?
So what is the evidence that the shroud is the burial cloth of Jesus? In order to have a preponderance of evidence in the balance, you actually have to have something in the pan. All you ever talk about is taking evidence out of the other side, but without anything on the authentic side, it is meaningless.

For example, in what respect does the Raes claims provide evidence to put in the authentic pan? Hint: it doesn't . Even if it were patched in 1500, that does not mean it was the burial shroud of Jesus. See how that works?
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Old 17th December 2015, 12:36 PM   #2107
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Originally Posted by Tomboy View Post
[...]Jabba, for the record, please do not quote me or refer to anything I’ve said on your website. Thanks kindly in advance.

* Other than you seem to have this mistaken idea that if you can convince enough people to agree with you, your belief in the Shroud as the burial cloth of Jesus will be proven correct despite all of the facts and evidence to the contrary, but science doesn’t work that way.
Jabba has already quoted you.
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Old 17th December 2015, 12:46 PM   #2108
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Where is this silly site of his?
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Old 17th December 2015, 12:47 PM   #2109
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Slowvehicle,
- Again, I suspect that I'm not understanding your question. It seems obvious to me that the probability of something being true is determined by compiling the relevant information (evidence) available -- i.e., by determining the preponderance of available evidence. Do you find that statement meaningless, or doubtful?
Jabba, important info:

Probability cannot be used to evauate the truth of a statement. It can only be used to try to predict an outcome.

If you want to try to calculate the probability that the shroud is found authentic, an important factor is the probability that Jesus existed, that he was crucified, and that he was resurrected. This alone is a virtually impossible to do, but here comes the real catch: As the probability of Jesus is an important factor in the probability of the authentic shroud, you cannot afterwards use the shroud to argue for the authenticy of Jesus, because that would be a circular argument.

Hans
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Old 17th December 2015, 12:57 PM   #2110
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With the OP again burying failed attempts at evidence with hand wringing over probability, I can't help but think the introduction of Baysian methods could drag things out to great effect.
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Old 17th December 2015, 01:11 PM   #2111
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Originally Posted by ComfySlippers View Post
Where is this silly site of his?
http://shrouddebates.com

For bonus giggles see a manifesto for the OPs mission here and ironic advice for dealing with the dishonest and slippery heathen skeptics:
http://shroudstory.com/2012/03/25/a-...a-rich-savage/
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Old 17th December 2015, 01:13 PM   #2112
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Originally Posted by John Jones View Post
Jabba has already quoted you.
*sigh* This shouldn't surprise me. At least the individual posts seem to have been copy/pasted verbatim, but the fact that they’re not shown chronologically means it’s not an accurate representation of the conversation.

Jabba, if you’re going to reproduce the discussion that’s taking place here on your website, at least do so in a way that maintains the integrity of the content.
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Old 17th December 2015, 01:17 PM   #2113
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Originally Posted by ComfySlippers View Post
Where is this silly site of his?
Shrouddebates.com.

Look for his 'map'
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Old 17th December 2015, 01:32 PM   #2114
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
http://shrouddebates.com



For bonus giggles see a manifesto for the OPs mission here and ironic advice for dealing with the dishonest and slippery heathen skeptics:

http://shroudstory.com/2012/03/25/a-...a-rich-savage/

Oh dear.
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Old 17th December 2015, 02:27 PM   #2115
PizzaTheHutt
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Originally Posted by ComfySlippers View Post
Oh dear.
Tell me about it! I threw up a little in my mouth after reading the comments after Jabba's guest post. Here are a few notable "comments":

"Richard, seeing as these athiests seem to attack you on all fronts, never really giving you a chance to direct yourself to one area (A typical strategy by the way). Here’s a tip; Attack them directly at their strongest points for inauthenticity and don’t waver from this strategy.They don’t have many points; C14, d’ Arcis, McCrone. But be specific and thorough. With the c14 you may want to explain to them first, it’s fallibility and it’s propensity to errors, from it’s basic assumptions, up to written documents showing very good ‘reviews’ of the supposed peer-reviewed Nature paper. Little unknown facts such as all labs using samples of too small or of too low weight to be properly sampled, for example." - Ron

"Yes, I agree. They change topics constantly. They aren’t willing to actually DISCUSS anything. This shows their blatant dishonesty, in my opinion." - AnnieCee

"One thing they can’t handle is anything supernatural. And yet the evidence collected so far about the Shroud indicates that something supernatural most likely DID happen in order to imprint the image on the cloth.
Maybe you can’t exactly prove it, but they can’t disprove it either."
- AnnieCee

"Ron and Annie,
– I don’t have time to address your points tonight, but I’ll be back tomorrow. So, don’t go away."
- Guess who?

"They have read absolutely nothing on the science of radiocarbon dating or vanillan loss as stated by R Rogers, most of them are talking out of their ‘other’ ends…It also seems they get all their answers from a couple of athiest sites and non scholarly writings." - Ron

"“Also what do you mean by the supposed peer-review?” Exactly what it says. If the RCD article released by Nature was peer-reviewed, it was a very shoddy job. Almost bad enough to the point that one wonders was it actually properly reviewed or just scanned over quickly." - Ron, implying that the peer review process on the Nature article was shoddy

"Also — when confronting Randian Looney Tunes, it is important to hold them to their own standards. They are ready to dismiss any work supportive of the Shroud if it is not peer-reviewed, or they can find some *ad hominem* against the author; but they dismiss out of hand even the possibility of anything against atheists attacking the Shroud, usually by demanding proof *ad infinitum*. See post #69 on the Randian thread for examples." - grey

"These athiests are completely biased, blinded, unintelligent and more precisely talking thru their rear orifices. Notice their references to Joe Nickels for most of their evidence…that very telling of thier intelligence….they actually would accept the words of Nickels against the peer-reviewed words of a world reknowned chemist as R. Rogers….idiots." - Ron

"I learned that they tend to get crazy if you talk about Noah’s Ark... There’s plenty of evidence of the Flood, lots and lots of it. The flood is probably what throws off Carbon dating because they don’t factor that in. That’s my opinion on it anyway because I think their dates are screwy. It jumps from 10,000 years to millions and billions – with hardly anything in between. In other words, carbon dating gets really weird if they try to go back before the flood happened and so I think they left the flood out of their algorithms." - AnnieCee

"They refuse to talk about angels. Even though there’s an endless supply of stories from people who have met and talked with angels or had angels save their life. They won’t go there. An angel saved MY life one time, maybe more than that. I’ve seen a few genuine for-real documented miracles. But of course they mock all of it. Even the PROOF is not good enough for them, the idiots." - AnnieCee

"Running in circles is probably my biggest problem, and I think that I know how to prevent such foolishness — it’s just hard to resist the temptation to try to answer all my opponents questions and objections as quickly as possible…" - Jabba, admitting that he purposefully slows the entire process down for the purpose of messing with everybody on the forum
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Old 17th December 2015, 03:03 PM   #2116
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Carbon Dating/Doubts/Repair?/M&P/Entry #2

Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
So what is the evidence that the shroud is the burial cloth of Jesus? In order to have a preponderance of evidence in the balance, you actually have to have something in the pan. All you ever talk about is taking evidence out of the other side, but without anything on the authentic side, it is meaningless.

For example, in what respect does the Raes claims provide evidence to put in the authentic pan? Hint: it doesn't . Even if it were patched in 1500, that does not mean it was the burial shroud of Jesus. See how that works?
Pgwenthold,
- Do you accept that if I had stuff in the authentic pan, showing weakness in the carbon dating would be meaningful?
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Old 17th December 2015, 03:20 PM   #2117
JayUtah
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Do you accept that if I had stuff in the authentic pan, showing weakness in the carbon dating would be meaningful?
"Showing weakness in the carbon dating" is not something you can put in the "authentic pan." You don't seem to understand, at a fundamental level, what evidence actually is.
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Old 17th December 2015, 03:27 PM   #2118
Sideroxylon
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Pgwenthold,
- Do you accept that if I had stuff in the authentic pan, showing weakness in the carbon dating would be meaningful?
- That would be great if you could stop diddling around and present some evidence for the authentic pan.
- Will you be back with that?
- Haven't you given showing weakness in the carbon dating your best shot by tossing around shroudie web links and talking points but repeatedly failed?
- Are you bored of probability talk and about to rehash past points as if they were not abject failures every other time you have raised them, ignoring past criticisms?
- Are these questions obviously rhetorical given your years of dishonest behaviour in your threads?

Last edited by Sideroxylon; 17th December 2015 at 03:31 PM.
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Old 17th December 2015, 03:30 PM   #2119
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Pgwenthold,
- Do you accept that if I had stuff in the authentic pan, showing weakness in the carbon dating would be meaningful?
That would do nothing to establish the date.
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Old 17th December 2015, 03:37 PM   #2120
JayUtah
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
That would do nothing to establish the date.
...or location or style or composition or culture or ownership or provenance or any of the other things we discussed would have to come out affirmatively favorable for a rational person to even consider the possibility that it was the actual burial cloth of Jesus.

Affirmatively favorable. No amount of chipping away at the undesired findings creates that affirmative statement. No amount, Jabba. They are qualitatively dissimilar things.
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