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Old 6th October 2019, 09:53 AM   #841
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Well, firstly, nobody has blamed Corbyn for anything that Ken Clarke has or has not said, so this seems somewhat hysterical.

Secondly, it doesn't matter whether or not MPs scepticism of Corbyn is justified, the fact is that it exists and because of it he cannot command the confidence of the House. So the question becomes - if assigning blame is really the most productive way to look at the situation - is it the fault of that one person, or is it the fault of absolutely everybody else?
Well no somebody actually did blame Corbyn for the lack of evidence that KC can command a majority. So no not hysterical at all.

So far Corbyn is the ONLY horse in the race so yes, if he doesnt have rhe numbers its the fault of the people who wont bacj him.

If KC or anyone else came forward and said they have enough support to command a majority with Labour votes and JC refused then I would say that it is then him stopping things.

As it stands it isnt.

And we arent talking about absolutely everyone else we arw talking about Swinson and a couple of dozen independents.
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Old 6th October 2019, 09:57 AM   #842
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Yes.
Where and when?

Afaik he only said he wouldn't rule it out back in august
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Old 6th October 2019, 10:27 AM   #843
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
<snippage>
You were wrong. Do try and admit this.
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Old 6th October 2019, 10:50 AM   #844
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Where and when?

Afaik he only said he wouldn't rule it out back in august
I think this comes down to exactly what's being meant by "throw his hat in the ring". He was asked whether he'd step up if asked and he said, as you say, that he wouldn't rule it out. I think that counts as throwing his hat in the ring. You're free to disagree.

And, as said, he has a better chance of commanding a majority than Corbyn does. It just needs Corbyn to come to this conclusion himself and to rule himself out.
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Old 6th October 2019, 11:19 AM   #845
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I think this comes down to exactly what's being meant by "throw his hat in the ring". He was asked whether he'd step up if asked and he said, as you say, that he wouldn't rule it out. I think that counts as throwing his hat in the ring. You're free to disagree.

And, as said, he has a better chance of commanding a majority than Corbyn does. It just needs Corbyn to come to this conclusion himself and to rule himself out.
Sitting back and waiting to be asked isn't throwing your hat into the ring. Has he spoken to the lib dems, rebel tories and snp? i think the answer is no.

that being the case JC is the only game in town
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Old 6th October 2019, 11:30 AM   #846
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
<snippage>
You were wrong. Do try and admit this.
What a dishonest way to respond to a post.
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Old 6th October 2019, 10:36 PM   #847
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I just wanted to share with you a comment I stumbled upon on Quora.


Quote:
When I was driving to the polling station on the morning of Thursday June 23, 2016, I couldn’t make up my mind which way to vote. My Tory MP had written this outstanding essay extolling the virtues of EU membership whilst warning of the damage leaving the EU would do to the economy and the lives of millions of people, and which I agreed with completely.

I was however, also mindful of the potential impact Brexit would have on me personally. I figured it would make very little difference to me personally as I am retired, I live in a nice apartment and my financial needs are minimal, my intellectual needs taken care of by exchanging comments with people such as yourself.

I am also not averse to challenges, and whatever the consequences of Brexit are, one thing’s for sure, the process has exposed the total inability of our parliamentary democracy to agree on anything.

Whatever reasons people may or may not have had for leaving the EU, this has been totally overtaken and reduced to insignificance. Even with the best will the world, Parliament as a body politic is incapable of abiding by the will of the people, and that’s because vested interests are pulling at it from all directions,
It seems to encapsulate the mind of a Brexiteer rather well.

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Old 6th October 2019, 11:38 PM   #848
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I think Johnson wants a no-deal Brexit, and power. I don't think he cares about leaving the EU at all, just what it can do to bring him wealth and power.
How will a no-deal Brexit make pounds for Johnson?
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Old 6th October 2019, 11:42 PM   #849
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
How will a no-deal Brexit make pounds for Johnson?
Use Pounds to buy Euros prior to the no-deal Brexit. Swap them back for Pounds when you can get a dozen for a Euro, sometime next year.

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Old 6th October 2019, 11:49 PM   #850
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
How will a no-deal Brexit make pounds for Johnson?
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Use Pounds to buy Euros prior to the no-deal Brexit. Swap them back for Pounds when you can get a dozen for a Euro, sometime next year.

McHrozni
Or indeed just get £££££s from grateful hedge fund managers and other "captains of industry" who stand to make a packet from the UK post-Brexit. These £££££s can come via generous fees for speaking engagements, lucrative non-executive directorships or just gifts.
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Old 6th October 2019, 11:52 PM   #851
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Or indeed just get £££££s from grateful hedge fund managers and other "captains of industry" who stand to make a packet from the UK post-Brexit. These £££££s can come via generous fees for speaking engagements, lucrative non-executive directorships or just gifts.
Sure, but the hedge fund managers would still be getting the extra Pounds by betting against the currency. What you're mentioning is just the mechanism by which Pounds drop in BJs pocket.

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Old 7th October 2019, 12:07 AM   #852
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Sure, but the hedge fund managers would still be getting the extra Pounds by betting against the currency. What you're mentioning is just the mechanism by which Pounds drop in BJs pocket.

McHrozni
Others will be making good money shorting UK stocks (or possibly buying them).

Then there are the vulture venture capitalists who will be sifting through the wreckage of the UK economy to find some assets to strip sweat for profit.
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Old 7th October 2019, 12:30 AM   #853
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Others will be making good money shorting UK stocks (or possibly buying them).

Then there are the vulture venture capitalists who will be sifting through the wreckage of the UK economy to find some assets to strip sweat for profit.
That's also an option, yes. Basically bet against the country he swore to serve.

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Old 7th October 2019, 12:40 AM   #854
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's also an option, yes. Basically bet against the country he swore to serve.

McHrozni
Yes, that's the general plan....

Anyone who voted for Brexit in the expectation than it would benefit anyone other than a few people who are already very rich and perhaps some others who are in critical special interest groups, was mistaken IMO.
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Old 7th October 2019, 01:22 AM   #855
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
What a dishonest way to respond to a post.
Pointing out that you made a claim (regarding low levels of UK support for abolishing the monarchy) were refuted (it's consistently over 30% and peeaked at over 50%), then tried to deny and evade (as you usualy do when refuted) is "dishonest" now?
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Old 7th October 2019, 01:23 AM   #856
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
How will a no-deal Brexit make pounds for Johnson?
By short-selling Sterling. Gambling that it's value against the Euro will drop further.
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Old 7th October 2019, 02:06 AM   #857
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Pointing out that you made a claim (regarding low levels of UK support for abolishing the monarchy) were refuted (it's consistently over 30% and peeaked at over 50%), then tried to deny and evade (as you usualy do when refuted) is "dishonest" now?
No, it's making a strawman argument like that while censoring my post in the hope that nobody will realized that you are making a strawman argument that is dishonest.
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Old 7th October 2019, 02:46 AM   #858
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
It's remarkable that both Labour and the conservative party have apparently ran out of credible leadership alternatives at the same time. After Gordon Brown Labour managed to scrape up Ed Miliband from the bottom of the barrel. Since they could apparently not find any worse moderate candidate left to replace him the stage was left for extremists like Corbyn simply by default.

The same situation has played out in the Conservative party. After David Cameron there was Theresa May simply because no other candidate wasn't disliked enough, and after her Boris Johnson faced no serious challengers.
Probably due to the away they have their leaders elected. Rather than MPs voting for their leader, they let the party as a whole vote for them. This seems to result in a sort of cult mentality (for want of a better word), so you end up with more dross. The exception to this was Blair, but that was down to years of work to reform the party by Kinnock and Smith.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...tics-1-6166229
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Old 7th October 2019, 03:24 AM   #859
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
How will a no-deal Brexit make pounds for Johnson?
Hedge funds associated with him have over £8b invested in there being a no-deal Brexit. This was discussed a few pages back.
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Old 7th October 2019, 03:30 AM   #860
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Sensational shift in Ladbrokes book

Article 50 Extended And UK Remains In EU After Oct 31
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
1.33
Uk to leave EU with No Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
5.00
UK to leave EU with Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
9.00
UK to Revoke Article 50
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
17.00

Brexit seems off
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Old 7th October 2019, 03:54 AM   #861
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Sensational shift in Ladbrokes book

Article 50 Extended And UK Remains In EU After Oct 31
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
1.33
Uk to leave EU with No Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
5.00
UK to leave EU with Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
9.00
UK to Revoke Article 50
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
17.00

Brexit seems off
No, because all of those odds refer to "on or before Oct 31 2019". Brexit, with or without a deal, can happen at a later date.

Though this comment is probably a waste of effort as you don't seem to respond to comments about these odds that you post.
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Old 7th October 2019, 03:58 AM   #862
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
No, because all of those odds refer to "on or before Oct 31 2019". Brexit, with or without a deal, can happen at a later date.

Though this comment is probably a waste of effort as you don't seem to respond to comments about these odds that you post.
I totally agree and the point is the next delay requires a referendum with a specific Brexit deal. And another referendum is a shoo in for remain, the younger generation will be throwing the smug retirees off their balconies. See McHrozni's post http://www.internationalskeptics.com...&postcount=847.

Last edited by Samson; 7th October 2019 at 04:00 AM.
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Old 7th October 2019, 05:13 AM   #863
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I totally agree and the point is the next delay requires a referendum with a specific Brexit deal. And another referendum is a shoo in for remain, the younger generation will be throwing the smug retirees off their balconies. See McHrozni's post http://www.internationalskeptics.com...&postcount=847.
What? Paddy Power has another referendum before end 2019 as a 1% chance.

And McHrozni's post is unrelated to anything you've written here.
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Old 7th October 2019, 06:46 AM   #864
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The attempt to get a court to force BJ to send the letter has failed today. The court basically saying that he has promised he will. It goes to appeal but given BJ said in the Commons he wouldn't then it would seem he either lied to the court or to Parliament. Neither would be good.
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Old 7th October 2019, 09:05 AM   #865
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
No, it's making a strawman argument like that while censoring my post in the hope that nobody will realized that you are making a strawman argument that is dishonest.
And the lies continue...

You claimed (here) that there is little popular support for a UK Republic". I pointed out that the polls showed a rather consistent level of support of ~30%, with occasional peaks over 50%.
You responded by claiming, without (as usual) supplying any evidence, that "support would quickly dwindle once it came down to the form of the alternative head of state". I called you on, yet another, unsupported assertion. You failed to provide any support for your assertion and tried to move the goalposts with:
Even if support for a republic exceeded 50% there is still the problem of what form the republic should take. Should a president be elected or appointed by parliament? Should the president head the executive (as in the US) or should he be largely ceremonial only?
Quote:
A lot of people would rather vote for the status quo than vote for a republican model they didn't agree with. That's what happened in Australia in 1999.
I then pointed out the continuing denial and evasion, whereupon you accused me of dishonesty.
Kinda pathetic.

BTW you might want to learn what "strawman" actually means before you trying ans use the term.
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Old 7th October 2019, 09:23 AM   #866
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
I pointed out that the polls showed a rather consistent level of support of ~30%, with occasional peaks over 50%.
So it comes down to whether 30% represents "little" support or "massive" support?

I have news for you. A referendum won't carry with just 30% support.
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Old 7th October 2019, 09:33 AM   #867
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Use Pounds to buy Euros prior to the no-deal Brexit. Swap them back for Pounds when you can get a dozen for a Euro, sometime next year.

McHrozni
It's only a by-product of market forces. The Fisher-Miller effect is that as one currency depreciates/appreciates, another appreciates/depreciates, with the net result of interest rates chasing currency rates. The net effect is that what you gain on the currency you lose on the interest.

So sure, whilst the pound is weak you can buy a lot of them cheaply. However, the banks will set the LIBOR to equalise loses/gains, which in any case are driven by the global free market forces.
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Old 7th October 2019, 09:35 AM   #868
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
So it comes down to whether 30% represents "little" support or "massive" support?

I have news for you. A referendum won't carry with just 30% support.
I have news for you.
The mayor of London and the GLA was set up with the support of 24% of the electorate.
52% of the voters voted for Scottish independence in 1979 and the vote was lost.
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Old 7th October 2019, 09:39 AM   #869
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Others will be making good money shorting UK stocks (or possibly buying them).

Then there are the vulture venture capitalists who will be sifting through the wreckage of the UK economy to find some assets to strip sweat for profit.
To be fair, if you buy out a company (=invest your funds into it) of course you'll be looking for large returns (often venture capitalists will stipulate 35% net profit margin growth year on year) to make it worth their while, plus an agreed exit plan after about five years.

Bulls and bears. 'Twas e'er the way.
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Old 7th October 2019, 09:40 AM   #870
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's also an option, yes. Basically bet against the country he swore to serve.

McHrozni
That is what hedging is all about.
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Old 7th October 2019, 09:51 AM   #871
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
whilst the pound is weak you can buy a lot of them cheaply. However, the banks will set the LIBOR to equalise loses/gains
Eh, no they won't.
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Old 7th October 2019, 10:00 AM   #872
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
Eh, no they won't.
Well at least this time they won't leave unencrypted messages about fixing it!
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Old 7th October 2019, 10:39 AM   #873
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
I have news for you.
The mayor of London and the GLA was set up with the support of 24% of the electorate.
52% of the voters voted for Scottish independence in 1979 and the vote was lost.
More than 75% of voters in Belfast South didn't vote for Alasdair McDonnell in '15 yet he was elected their MP. Two years later his support was higher, yet he lost.

Support for removing the monarchy in the UK has been over 50% too.

But then psionl0 isn't interested in facts, especially ones that refute his opinions.
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Old 7th October 2019, 10:42 AM   #874
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Remainers in these threads try to argue that, and then in the next breath argue that leavers only voted the way they did in order to STOP free movement.

Which is it? You can't have it both ways.
Eh?

While you can’t retain free movement and stop immigration, there is no contradiction on the remain side for saying Brexiters were promising both. The Brexit campaign was guilty of making lots of mutually exclusive promises like this and Brexit voters were stupid enough to ignore the contradictions. Pointing out the lies and contradictions doesn’t make any of them Remains fault.
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Old 7th October 2019, 10:45 AM   #875
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post


I provided the links to back up my numbers. If you don't like them then you are welcome to put up your own - especially the ones that say the UK is a republic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowned_republic
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Old 7th October 2019, 11:43 PM   #876
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
I have news for you.
The mayor of London and the GLA was set up with the support of 24% of the electorate.
Quote:
Simultaneously with the elections to the London Borough councils, a referendum was held on the establishment of the GLA in May 1998, which was approved with 72% of the vote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greate...ority#Creation
Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
52% of the voters voted for Scottish independence in 1979 and the vote was lost.
Quote:
The Scottish referendum of 1979 was a post-legislative referendum to decide whether there was sufficient support for a Scottish Assembly proposed in the Scotland Act 1978 among the Scottish electorate. This was an act to create a devolved deliberative assembly for Scotland. An amendment to the Act stipulated that it would be repealed if less than 40% of the total electorate voted "Yes" in the referendum. The result was that 51.6% supported the proposal, but with a turnout of 64%, this represented only 32.9% of the registered electorate. The Act was subsequently repealed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_S...ion_referendum
As I suspected, you didn't tell the whole story.
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Old 7th October 2019, 11:49 PM   #877
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A band colleague recently shared a Facebook post in which it is clearly suggested that Jeremy Corbyn would immediately throw the UK back into the "Winter of Discontent" if elected and that instead we should all vote Conservative.

How ironic that the Institute of Fiscal Studies has said that a No-deal Brexit would push UK debt to a 50-year high:

Quote:
Even a "relatively benign" no-deal Brexit would push UK debt to its highest since the 1960s, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said.

The think tank said borrowing was likely to rise to £100bn and total debt would soar to 90% of national income.

"The government is now adrift without any effective fiscal anchor," said IFS director Paul Johnson.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49961301

As usual, the government is complacent confident.

Meanwhile the damage already caused to the UK economy is becoming clearer:

Quote:
Christian Schulz, the chief UK economist at Citi, which contributed to the report, said the country's economy had already shrunk by about £60bn since the EU referendum in 2016.

"Business investment is up to 20% lower than it would otherwise have been, hurting productivity and wage growth," he said.

However, Mr Schulz added that a further Brexit delay would create more uncertainty, denting investment and leaving growth at around 1% a year.

"From a growth perspective, a Brexit deal is a little better, leaving growth at 1.5%, but it would leave no chance of Brexit being cancelled," he said.

"A no-deal Brexit - even with a substantial stimulus - could mean no growth at all for the next two years. Remaining in the EU would be the best scenario for economic growth in the next few years."
...and remember, those effects are cumulative. The UK economy is £60bn smaller every year, and that gap is growing.
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Old 7th October 2019, 11:49 PM   #878
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
More than 75% of voters in Belfast South didn't vote for Alasdair McDonnell in '15 yet he was elected their MP. Two years later his support was higher, yet he lost.
Par for the course under FPTP.

Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Support for removing the monarchy in the UK has been over 50% too.
Already discussed.

Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
But then psionl0 isn't interested in facts opinions, especially ones that refute his opinions contradict the facts.
ftfy.
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Last edited by psionl0; 8th October 2019 at 12:32 AM.
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Old 8th October 2019, 01:53 AM   #879
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There is nothing in the main stream news about EU plans regarding disclosure of income and hedge fund bets as a driving force behind Brexit for those in power. Is it just a CT?
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Old 8th October 2019, 02:19 AM   #880
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
There is nothing in the main stream news about EU plans regarding disclosure of income and hedge fund bets as a driving force behind Brexit for those in power. Is it just a CT?
Which bit is a possible CT ?

That there are a number of hedge funds which have taken a position on Brexit and that a number of those hedge funds have been generous donors to Boris Johnson's PM campaign.

OR

There are EU plans to force disclosure ?

AFAIK, the former is pretty well established and documented. I hadn't heard about the latter until you mentioned it.
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