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Old 8th October 2019, 02:23 AM   #881
The Don
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Meanwhile the UK is reportedly preparing for a breakdown in talks with the EU.

Quote:
The UK government is preparing for a breakdown in talks with the EU over Brexit this week, according to No 10.

A government official told the BBC the EU had not shown a desire to "budge one centimetre" since Boris Johnson submitted new proposals to Brussels.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267

Of course when your negotiating approach is "Here are our (unworkable) plans - take them or leave them" then that doesn't seem to leave much room for negotiation.
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Old 8th October 2019, 02:29 AM   #882
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Meanwhile the UK is reportedly preparing for a breakdown in talks with the EU.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267

Of course when your negotiating approach is "Here are our (unworkable) plans - take them or leave them" then that doesn't seem to leave much room for negotiation.
And then take the default position of "We tried, but it's all the EUs fault"
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Old 8th October 2019, 02:58 AM   #883
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That explains sudden extra drop on Forex.
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Old 8th October 2019, 03:34 AM   #884
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Originally Posted by Greebo View Post
And then take the default position of "We tried, but it's all the EUs fault"
Sadly that will work on at least 50% of the UK population who will end up blaming the EU for everything and as a result will make bad decisions for a couple of generations
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Old 8th October 2019, 03:37 AM   #885
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Things have progressed a step further now

Quote:
A No 10 source says a Brexit deal is "essentially impossible" after a call between the PM and Angela Merkel.

Boris Johnson spoke to the German chancellor earlier about the proposals he put forward to the EU - but the source said she made clear a deal based on them was "overwhelmingly unlikely".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267

Looks like Boris Johnson will get his no deal Brexit after all
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Old 8th October 2019, 03:43 AM   #886
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Things have progressed a step further now



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267

Looks like Boris Johnson will get his no deal Brexit after all
The Benn law?
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Old 8th October 2019, 03:47 AM   #887
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Sadly that will work on at least 50% of the UK population who will end up blaming the EU for everything and as a result will make bad decisions for a couple of generations
End up? That was their starting point.

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Old 8th October 2019, 03:49 AM   #888
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
The Benn law?
Presumably the traditional party of law and order isn't planning to follow the law. I'm struggling to work out in what sense Boris can be described by the adjective "conservative."

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Old 8th October 2019, 03:52 AM   #889
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
The Benn law?
What about it ?

Boris Johnson could simply ignore it and let the dice fall where they may.

He could ask for an extension in a way that makes it impossible to grant.

He could rely on the EU refusing an extension.

He could reject the terms of any extension.

Sadly the default outcome is still a no-deal Brexit and as the craven MPs' desperation to get behind Boris Johnson's latest non-offer to the EU shows, there is no appetite whatsoever to cancel Brexit, or find a realistic deal so a no deal it is
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Old 8th October 2019, 03:53 AM   #890
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
The Benn law?
If the extension is not in place by 31/10 we leave, that is a matter of UK legislation, the folk trying to get a further extension are not going to get the request to the EU and agreed before then.

We are leaving 31st October.

May as well get used to the idea.
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Old 8th October 2019, 03:57 AM   #891
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Things have progressed a step further now

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267

Looks like Boris Johnson will get his no deal Brexit after all
That depends. He's obligated to send the letter unless Parliament agrees to no deal Brexit. If EU agrees to an extension he'll get his other great wish, an election. Except it would be with him being the man who extended Brexit, so that's a bummer.

The election is a wildcard. Electoral calculus predicts a Tory majority of 12. That could be reduced if there is a swing from Tory to Brexit or LibDem or if those 20+ MPs that were kicked out of Conservatives stand to steal Tory votes.

Anything can happen, but it's definitely a major condemnation of Corbyn and his incompetence.

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Old 8th October 2019, 03:58 AM   #892
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
I'm struggling to work out in what sense Boris can be described by the adjective "conservative."

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He tries to **** as many people as possible.
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Old 8th October 2019, 06:02 AM   #893
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Presumably the traditional party of law and order isn't planning to follow the law. I'm struggling to work out in what sense Boris can be described by the adjective "conservative."



Dave
Difference between conservative with a big C and little c.
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Old 8th October 2019, 06:04 AM   #894
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Of course when your negotiating approach is "Here are our (unworkable) plans - take them or leave them" then that doesn't seem to leave much room for negotiation.
True for both sides. The EU's treaty is unacceptable for the UK parliament, the UK government's proposal is unacceptable for the EU.

The question the EU should really be asking themselves is which is the more unacceptable to them: Boris's proposed deal or no deal - and then choose the lesser of two evils. But Benn's Bill has given them a third option to cling to - the hope that we will eventually agree to remain.
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Old 8th October 2019, 06:07 AM   #895
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
He tries to **** as many people as possible.
That's a tad unfair, he's about making the world better for his mates! That may mean he has to **** all over everyone else but hey that can't be helped.
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Old 8th October 2019, 06:08 AM   #896
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
True for both sides. The EU's treaty is unacceptable for the UK parliament, the UK government's proposal is unacceptable for the EU.

The question the EU should really be asking themselves is which is the more unacceptable to them: Boris's proposed deal or no deal - and then choose the lesser of two evils. But Benn's Bill has given them a third option to cling to - the hope that we will eventually agree to remain.
Interesting bit of goal post changing in mid flow. Both sides and then you mention a third side...
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Old 8th October 2019, 06:16 AM   #897
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
<gibber snip>
Anyone seen a set of goalposts anywhere? The have been somewhat odd looking....
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Old 8th October 2019, 07:32 AM   #898
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
True for both sides. The EU's treaty is unacceptable for the UK parliament, the UK government's proposal is unacceptable for the EU.

The question the EU should really be asking themselves is which is the more unacceptable to them: Boris's proposed deal or no deal - and then choose the lesser of two evils. But Benn's Bill has given them a third option to cling to - the hope that we will eventually agree to remain.
I think the EU have always hoped that we would remain. Given the split in what leavers want remaining forms the most popular relationship with the EU amongst UK voters.
If you have a chance for the best outcome for both sides why would you take it off the table?
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Old 8th October 2019, 07:40 AM   #899
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Quote:
Farmers will feel "betrayed" by a government plan not to impose tariffs on the majority of goods entering the UK in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the National Farmers Union has said.

The government has announced it will not tax 88% of imports into the UK.

The NFU said without a Brexit deal its members face tariffs on exports while overseas rivals will not be taxed.

"The prime minister has missed a real opportunity to back British farmers," said NFU chief Minette Batters.

The government published its updated proposed tariff regime ahead of the UK's scheduled departure from the European Union on 31 October.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49970197

RIP British agriculture.
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Old 8th October 2019, 07:47 AM   #900
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
The only way that UK agriculture will be able to survive post-Brexit will be for the UK government to heavily subsidise it. Unfortunately this means that the EU will introduce heavy tariffs to counteract those subsidies which will kill our biggest export market
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Old 8th October 2019, 08:27 AM   #901
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Things have progressed a step further now



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267

Looks like Boris Johnson will get his no deal Brexit after all
like I say, get 3 to 1 on Ladbrokes for a buffer. This looks like a beautiful hedge

Article 50 Extended And UK Remains In EU After Oct 31
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
1.33
UK to leave EU with No Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
4.00
UK to leave EU with Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
17.00

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/b...als/225327493/
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Old 8th October 2019, 08:34 AM   #902
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Anyone seen a set of goalposts anywhere? The have been somewhat odd looking....
Are you sure you have seen any brexit goalposts? Any in this universe?
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Old 8th October 2019, 08:35 AM   #903
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The only way that UK agriculture will be able to survive post-Brexit will be for the UK government to heavily subsidise it. Unfortunately this means that the EU will introduce heavy tariffs to counteract those subsidies which will kill our biggest export market
Nonsense. When we remove all those pesky regulations our farmers will be able to compete against the world!
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Old 8th October 2019, 08:39 AM   #904
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Sadly that will work on at least 50% of the UK population who will end up blaming the EU for everything and as a result will make bad decisions for a couple of generations
England's population. Every electoral district in Scotland voted remain. N Ireland and Gibraltar voted remain too.
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Old 8th October 2019, 08:43 AM   #905
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
like I say, get 3 to 1 on Ladbrokes for a buffer. This looks like a beautiful hedge

Article 50 Extended And UK Remains In EU After Oct 31
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
1.33
UK to leave EU with No Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
4.00
UK to leave EU with Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
17.00
Only if Oct 31st is a special date for the punter. Otherwise those odds have to be watered down in light of the fact that we could leave with no deal after that date.

But I think I mentioned this before
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Old 8th October 2019, 08:51 AM   #906
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Only if Oct 31st is a special date for the punter. Otherwise those odds have to be watered down in light of the fact that we could leave with no deal after that date.

But I think I mentioned this before
The way I read it, they are saying strong chance article 50 is extended. I can't see your point.
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Old 8th October 2019, 08:57 AM   #907
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Presumably the traditional party of law and order isn't planning to follow the law. I'm struggling to work out in what sense Boris can be described by the adjective "conservative."

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Laws are for the Plebs of course.
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Old 8th October 2019, 09:10 AM   #908
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The way I read it, they are saying strong chance article 50 is extended. I can't see your point.
Well it means that unless Parliament does something it has been unable to do for the last three years, agree on a positive outcome whether it's the Withdrawal Agreement, another deal or revoking article 50 that the UK will crash out with no deal at the end of the extension.

During the extension we could have a general election. Currently the Conservatives are heavy favourites to win a majority in that election. IMO The Conservatives will be campaigning on no-deal to avoid the Brexit Party splitting the swivel-eyed loon vote which means that no deal is the most likely outcome of an election.

In the event that there isn't any overall majority for any one party we're likely back to square one with no agreement.

If Labour win a majority we'll have a period of uncertainty while Jeremy Corbyn attempts to negotiate a fantastical Brexit deal followed by crashing out with no deal when the extension ends.
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Old 8th October 2019, 09:11 AM   #909
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Nonsense. When we remove all those pesky regulations our farmers will be able to compete against the world!
Absolutely. You can look forward to US-style food 'enhancements' like:
  • GMO corn and soy (practically harmless compared to the rest)
  • Ractopamine "enhanced" beef, porn and turkey
  • BVO laced soft drinks (but at least it'll keep the Brits from igniting)
  • Arsenic enhanced chicken
  • Brominated (via potassium bromate) breads. They'll be whiter...
  • Cereals, butter substitutes, meat and nuts preserved with BHA and BHT
  • Milk from cows dosed with recombinant bovine growth hormone
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Last edited by catsmate; 8th October 2019 at 09:12 AM.
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Old 8th October 2019, 09:19 AM   #910
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Well it means that unless Parliament does something it has been unable to do for the last three years, agree on a positive outcome whether it's the Withdrawal Agreement, another deal or revoking article 50 that the UK will crash out with no deal at the end of the extension.

During the extension we could have a general election. Currently the Conservatives are heavy favourites to win a majority in that election. IMO The Conservatives will be campaigning on no-deal to avoid the Brexit Party splitting the swivel-eyed loon vote which means that no deal is the most likely outcome of an election.

In the event that there isn't any overall majority for any one party we're likely back to square one with no agreement.

If Labour win a majority we'll have a period of uncertainty while Jeremy Corbyn attempts to negotiate a fantastical Brexit deal followed by crashing out with no deal when the extension ends.
An extension means a structural circuit breaker must be found and the only logical path is a referendum that should have been held in the first place, (remain) or (leave with specific pre agreed conditions).
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Old 8th October 2019, 09:20 AM   #911
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The way I read it, they are saying strong chance article 50 is extended. I can't see your point.
You stated the 4.0 (3-1, UK style odds) was a 'hedge'. A hedge against what? That's my point, and already stated clearly.
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Old 8th October 2019, 09:23 AM   #912
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
  • Ractopamine "enhanced" beef, porn and turkey


More than it's enhanced already??

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Old 8th October 2019, 09:25 AM   #913
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
[*] Ractopamine "enhanced" beef, porn and turkey
Is that a bad thing? I have no idea
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Old 8th October 2019, 09:28 AM   #914
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
You stated the 4.0 (3-1, UK style odds) was a 'hedge'. A hedge against what? That's my point, and already stated clearly.
For a business about to incur massive losses with a no deal brexit. But if you believe an extension only moves the date of a no deal brexit then it is not a good hedge. But I don't see a no deal brexit after an extension as being a plausible outcome.
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Old 8th October 2019, 09:37 AM   #915
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
True for both sides. The EU's treaty is unacceptable for the UK parliament, the UK government's proposal is unacceptable for the EU.

The question the EU should really be asking themselves is which is the more unacceptable to them: Boris's proposed deal or no deal - and then choose the lesser of two evils. But Benn's Bill has given them a third option to cling to - the hope that we will eventually agree to remain.
Leaving with no deal is also unacceptable to the UK Parliament but Bojo wants to do it anyway. More MPs support the EU deal than leaving without one.

So a deal with the EU satisfies the EU, more MPs than no deal and is also what people voted for in the referendum. Ergo....
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Old 8th October 2019, 09:40 AM   #916
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I don't doubt Boris and his cronies are plotting to bring about a No Deal Brexit, I simply suspect their own ineptitude will thwart them.
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Old 8th October 2019, 09:43 AM   #917
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
For a business about to incur massive losses with a no deal brexit. But if you believe an extension only moves the date of a no deal brexit then it is not a good hedge. But I don't see a no deal brexit after an extension as being a plausible outcome.
I think if they extend to January and have an election where the Tories get a majority no deal.becomes likely because there wouldnt be the numbers in parliament to stop it and i cant see the EU caving on a deal.
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Old 8th October 2019, 10:12 AM   #918
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The EU's treaty is unacceptable for the UK parliament, the UK government's proposal is unacceptable for the EU.
The UKís proposal is not viable and is therefor unacceptable to anyone with common sense. The EUís proposal doesnít suffer the same problem.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post

The question the EU should really be asking themselves is which is the more unacceptable to them: Boris's proposed deal or no deal - and then choose the lesser of two evils.
Very easy decision for the EU. Nearly all the negative effects of a no-deal fall on the UK, so there is no way the EU wouldn't prefer no-deal to the mess the UK offered up.
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Old 8th October 2019, 10:17 AM   #919
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
"enhanced" beef, porn and turkey
Porn has always relied heavily on "enhancements".
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Old 8th October 2019, 10:59 AM   #920
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
I don't doubt Boris and his cronies are plotting to bring about a No Deal Brexit, I simply suspect their own ineptitude will thwart them.
The fact that it is the default is heavily in their favour
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