Continuation Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

[Lothian]

We can hopefully all agree that not all people supporting leave are xenophobic racists. However those that are not are enabling and lending their support to those that are. See the latest from Brexit leader Arron Banks

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Parsman

England's population. Every electoral district in Scotland voted remain. N Ireland and Gibraltar voted remain too.

38% of people who voted in Scotland voted to leave.

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by Lothian

We can hopefully all agree that not all people supporting leave are xenophobic racists. However those that are not are enabling and lending their support to those that are. See the latest from Brexit leader Arron Banks

Charming.

[dudalb]

If the effects of the No Deal Brexit as as bad as most are predicting, then Bojo is going to learn the truth of that old saying "Be careful about what you wish for;you may get it".

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Charming.

Irony is Banks would probably get along fine with actual Nazis....

[ceptimus]

If Labour do become the government after an election, either alone or in some coalition with SNP / Green / Plaid / Liberals, their policy is to have another referendum with a choice between "Credible Leave" and remain - with nearly all their MPs backing remain.

The problem for leavers is that Labour's idea of "Credible Leave" will mean staying in the Single Market and Customs Union - and almost everyone, leavers included, agree that would be worse than remain.

So, if Labour win, they are set on offering a referendum choice of remain, or 'mostly remain but without any representation.' I can't see that being accepted by the electorate: when we've already voted to leave, if only a binary choice is to be offered it should be to chose how we leave - not how we remain.

If Labour's proposed referendum is pushed through, there will be an awful lot of spoiled papers - spoiled papers might even 'win' the ballot, or at least spoiled + leave might beat remain, which would leave the result dubious at best.

If another referendum is to be forced upon us, I think there need to be three choices at least:

* Remain
* Leave with the negotiated deal (whatever that is)
* Leave with no deal

To avoid splitting the leave vote (or indeed the remain vote if there should be two different remain options), the single transferable vote system should be used. Voters would rank the choices 1, 2, 3 (and so on if there are more than 3 choices). In the first round of counting only voters #1 choices are counted, if no option gets 50% +1 vote then the losing option is eliminated. Any votes that had that eliminated option as their #1 choice are now recounted using their #2 choice. If there are only three choices then the second round of counting would be bound to produce a winner.

I know Labour and other remain parties won't like the idea, but the alternative will leave up to half the electorate feeling that the option they wish to vote for has been denied them - and that would not be good for democracy.

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by The Don

The fact that it is the default is heavily in their favour

But it isn't the default, the Benn Bill rules it out as an option and try as he might I don't think Boris can dodge it.

[dudalb]

Oh, it going to be a fun Halloween in the UK this year.....

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Garrison

But it isn't the default, the Benn Bill rules it out as an option and try as he might I don't think Boris can dodge it.

Nope, still the default if no alternative is agreed.

[BadBoy]

What about vote of no confidence if it looks like Boris is going to crash out. Are they not preparing (coalition of the wiling) to take over if that looks like it could happen?

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by Garrison

But it isn't the default, the Benn Bill rules it out as an option and try as he might I don't think Boris can dodge it.

Article 50 is explicit about it. Time rans out, Exit happens. No amount of legislation in exiting country will change it. And for extension, every remaining country has to agree with it Which is increasingly unlikely...

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

If another referendum is to be forced upon us, I think there need to be three choices at least:

* Remain
* Leave with the negotiated deal (whatever that is)
* Leave with no deal

To avoid splitting the leave vote (or indeed the remain vote if there should be two different remain options), the single transferable vote system should be used. Voters would rank the choices 1, 2, 3 (and so on if there are more than 3 choices). In the first round of counting only voters #1 choices are counted, if no option gets 50% +1 vote then the losing option is eliminated. Any votes that had that eliminated option as their #1 choice are now recounted using their #2 choice. If there are only three choices then the second round of counting would be bound to produce a winner.

Some of us have been telling you this for a while now. I have to ask you though - what are the different remain options you mention?

The only one I can think of is hard Remain, where UK volunteers to abandon the Euro and Schengen opt-outs as well as the rebate. That would be swell, but no one suggested that yet.

Is it that or something else? Can you please explain?

McHrozni

[Puppycow]

Is the word "kraut" still OK to use in Britain?

https://i.imgur.com/lMOgAac.png

For reference, here's Wikipedia says on the subject:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hate_s...United_Kingdom

Quote:

Hate speech laws in England and Wales are found in several statutes. Expressions of hatred toward someone on account of that person's colour, race, disability, nationality (including citizenship), ethnic or national origin, religion, gender identity, or sexual orientation is forbidden.[1][2][3][4] Any communication which is threatening or abusive, and is intended to harass, alarm, or distress someone is forbidden.[5] The penalties for hate speech include fines, imprisonment, or both.[6]

Is "kraut" any different from other ethnic slurs in this respect?

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Is the word "kraut" still OK to use in Britain?

https://i.imgur.com/lMOgAac.png

For reference, here's Wikipedia says on the subject:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hate_s...United_Kingdom

Is "kraut" any different from other ethnic slurs in this respect?

Yeah. It's a slur against a powerful ethnic group that has the ability to totally screw Britain, as opposed to most slurs that are used against minorities with little power.

Whether that's an argument why this slur might be permissable or why it should be pursued to the end of the Earth and destroyed with fire before it lays eggs is up to you.

Leave.eu is invoking two world wars. Russians helped in both. I wonder if there's a hidden message there.

McHrozni

[The Don]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Yeah. It's a slur against a powerful ethnic group that has the ability to totally screw Britain, as opposed to most slurs that are used against minorities with little power.

Whether that's an argument why this slur might be permissable or why it should be pursued to the end of the Earth and destroyed with fire before it lays eggs is up to you.

Leave.eu is invoking two world wars. Russians helped in both. I wonder if there's a hidden message there.

McHrozni

I don't think there's a hidden message at all. Drunken British English idiots, either on holiday or at the finals of a football competition chant "Two world wars and a world cup" whilst pointing at people they think may be German as if:

• They personally had something to do with those things
• The UK didn't get considerable support in both world wars from may other countries

It's just playing to the rich vein of xenophobia which runs through Brexit supporters. I'm not sure that the architects of Brexit necessarily feel the same way, but they know that this kind of message is a powerful one and there is a large minority of people, possibly a majority, who will gamely put up with all kinds of **** if the Blitz spirit is invoked.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by BadBoy

What about vote of no confidence if it looks like Boris is going to crash out. Are they not preparing (coalition of the wiling) to take over if that looks like it could happen?

There is talk of a Government of National Unity to prevent a no-deal.

The problem is that the largest opposition party is Labour and Labour's leader Jeremy Corbyn insists that he is the Prime Minister if there is a GNU.

He is unacceptable to many of the other prospective members of a GNU, primarily the LibDem and ex-Conservative members.

As it stands, this means that any GNU is dead in the water.

[Information Analyst]

Originally Posted by Arcade22

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49970197

RIP British agriculture.

Karma.

[The Atheist]

Can we start a sweep on how many chapters this thread will run to if the EU allow an extension to June 2020?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...deal-to-summer

[Information Analyst]

Originally Posted by Parsman

England's population. Every electoral district in Scotland voted remain. N Ireland and Gibraltar voted remain too.

Scotland was still 38% Leave. So was 44% of NI. More people in England voted Remain than all the voters - Remain or Leave - in Scotland, Wales, and NI put together.

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by Samson

The way I read it, they are saying strong chance article 50 is extended. I can't see your point.

Of course, it's worth noting that betting odds are not an indication of probability, but instead an indication of how people are betting. So this doesn't tell you what the politicians are likely to do, it tells you what a certain segment of the UK population believes the politicians will do.

[Information Analyst]

Originally Posted by Lothian

We can hopefully all agree that not all people supporting leave are xenophobic racists. However those that are not are enabling and lending their support to those that are. See the latest from Brexit leader Arron Banks

**** says ******* thing. Shock news!

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

The problem for leavers is that Labour's idea of "Credible Leave" will mean staying in the Single Market and Customs Union - and almost everyone, leavers included, agree that would be worse than remain.

Since that's basically what the leave campaign promised 3 years ago, it should be clear that the problem here isn't with a potential Labour deal, but with May pushing the idea of "Leave" so far towards the "hard" end that people have become radicalised around the issue and now wouldn't accept what they actually voted for in the first place.

[ceptimus]

Originally Posted by Information Analyst

Scotland was still 38% Leave. So was 44% of NI. More people in England voted Remain than all the voters - Remain or Leave - in Scotland, Wales, and NI put together.

...and by constituency by party:
Labour: 148 Leave, 84 Remain

Conservative: 247 Leave, 80 Remain”


I don't have the figures for SNP, LibDem, etc. but I assume they would each be 100% Remain.


It must be worrying for Labour, who are going into the next election on a remain ticket. But perhaps they believe that many of their voters in those 148 constituencies have changed their minds, or that they will still vote Labour in an election even though they still support leaving.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

Since that's basically what the leave campaign promised 3 years ago, it should be clear that the problem here isn't with a potential Labour deal, but with May pushing the idea of "Leave" so far towards the "hard" end that people have become radicalised around the issue and now wouldn't accept what they actually voted for in the first place.

May was definitely a big, public part of the process but I'm in no doubt it's what the likes of Banks, Farrage & the ERG planned from the start. I'm less sure if it's actually what Farrage wants or if his plan was to campaign on Norway+ then agitate for crash out on the basis that it wouldn't happen and he could carry profiting from the division. If Brexit happens he's yesterday's man.

[Information Analyst]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

...and by constituency by party:
Labour: 148 Leave, 84 Remain

Conservative: 247 Leave, 80 Remain”


I don't have the figures for SNP, LibDem, etc. but I assume they would each be 100% Remain.


It must be worrying for Labour, who are going into the next election on a remain ticket. But perhaps they believe that many of their voters in those 148 constituencies have changed their minds, or that they will still vote Labour in an election even though they still support leaving.

We've done this to death already. The vast majority of Labour voters support Remain. Voters in Labour MP constituencies that returned a Leave majority were mostly either those who never voted for Labour anyway, or never previously voted at all. Far more actual Labour Remain supporters have switched allegiance to Remain-supporting parties than Labour Leave supporters have defected to Brexit Ltd, UKIP, or the Tories.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

It must be worrying for Labour, who are going into the next election on a remain ticket. But perhaps they believe that many of their voters in those 148 constituencies have changed their minds, or that they will still vote Labour in an election even though they still support leaving.

Why ?

That supposes that everyone is making their decision based solely on a party's Brexit intentions and not based upon other policies or even blind party loyalty.

In the case of a Labour MP with a smallish majority in a constituency which voted marginally to Leave, the majority of Leave voters are likely to support the Conservatives or Brexit parties, there is little or no chance of a Labour candidate attracting their support regardless of Labour's. OTOH, the majority of their support likely voted Remain so they stand to lose a large chunk of that to the LibDems or if those voters simply stay at home.

Indeed, if the enthusiastic Leave vote splits between Conservative and Brexit Party, a Labour candidate could do well standing on a "Negotiate a different deal and have a referendum" platform because it would attract:

• Labour voting Remain supporters
• Leave supporters who don't want no-deal
• Labour Leave supporters who would vote for anything wearing a red rosette

[The Don]

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer

May was definitely a big, public part of the process but I'm in no doubt it's what the likes of Banks, Farrage & the ERG planned from the start. I'm less sure if it's actually what Farrage wants or if his plan was to campaign on Norway+ then agitate for crash out on the basis that it wouldn't happen and he could carry profiting from the division. If Brexit happens he's yesterday's man.

I suppose it depends on how it all plays out further on down the road.

He could just "retire" from politics, move to the US and become a talking head on US right wing media. For sure he wouldn't have UK political influence but then again he'd have what I suspect he's always wanted, adulation and easy money.

He could continue to agitate. Whatever Brexit we end up with, he could insist that he personally could have done far, far, better. If Brexit turns out to be a fiasco there may be a lot of Brexit enthusiasts who abandon the Conservatives for their inept and wishy-washy handling of Brexit and instead vote Brexit Party. If Brexit results in Scottish independence, it's likely that the rest of the UK would return a right-leaning government in perpetuity and he could be an influential member of a right wing coalition government.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by The Don

There is talk of a Government of National Unity to prevent a no-deal.



The problem is that the largest opposition party is Labour and Labour's leader Jeremy Corbyn insists that he is the Prime Minister if there is a GNU.



He is unacceptable to many of the other prospective members of a GNU, primarily the LibDem and ex-Conservative members.



As it stands, this means that any GNU is dead in the water.

The problem is that the smaller parties insist Jeremy Corbyn not being the acting PM....

[ceptimus]

Originally Posted by Information Analyst

We've done this to death already. The vast majority of Labour voters support Remain. Voters in Labour MP constituencies that returned a Leave majority were mostly either those who never voted for Labour anyway, or never previously voted at all. Far more actual Labour Remain supporters have switched allegiance to Remain-supporting parties than Labour Leave supporters have defected to Brexit Ltd, UKIP, or the Tories.

In a general election, it's not only the Labour voters that vote. In those Labour constituencies that voted Leave in the referendum, how do you think those same voters will vote in the next general election? If you're a Labour supporter, are you hoping that the leave voters will:

• stay at home and not vote?
• vote Labour anyway?
• split their vote between the Conservative and Brexit parties?

[Belgian thought]

Originally Posted by Klimax

Article 50 is explicit about it. Time rans out, Exit happens. No amount of legislation in exiting country will change it. And for extension, every remaining country has to agree with it Which is increasingly unlikely...

I thought that the EU parliament voted by a large majority in September to allow an extension should the UK request it.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/09/18/...-on-article-50

Has this position changed?

[The Don]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

In a general election, it's not only the Labour voters that vote. In those Labour constituencies that voted Leave in the referendum, how do you think those same voters will vote in the next general election? If you're a Labour supporter, are you hoping that the leave voters will:

• stay at home and not vote?
• vote Labour anyway?
• split their vote between the Conservative and Brexit parties?

Likely it will be all of the above together with some (many ?) people who voted Leave have now changed their mind. Polls have been consistently showing a majority in favour of Remain for a long time.

More importantly, those people who are in favour of Remain need to turn out and vote.

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by The Don

If Brexit results in Scottish independence, it's likely that the rest of the UK would return a right-leaning government in perpetuity and he could be an influential member of a right wing coalition government.

This, for me, is probably the most worrying prospect of Brexit. Given that Scotland voted to remain in the UK based in part on the UK remaining in the EU it's far from unthinkable that Scotland would leave the UK and join the EU should Brexit happen. And without Scotland, the politics of the UK would shift dramatically to the right - and I think they need to shift to the left as is.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Nessie

There is nothing in the main stream news about EU plans regarding disclosure of income and hedge fund bets as a driving force behind Brexit for those in power. Is it just a CT?

It's just a conspiracy theory.

Quote:

In short, there is no evidence that the hedge funds that have backed Johnson’s election campaign have “millions of pounds” of speculative bets on no-deal Brexit. They have millions of pounds of speculative bets on U.K. companies, yes, but that is simply business as usual. So this is yet another a tin-foil-hat conspiracy theory.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/frances...o-deal-brexit/

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

One thing has occurred to me - the 19th wasn't a good choice of deadline for the Benn Act, because it's a Saturday. That means that if Johnson defies it, MPs aren't actually going to do anything about it until the 21st, which gives them 10 days to sort out a vote of no confidence, forming a new government, and getting an extension. The last shouldn't be a problem, since the EU are currently working on sorting all that out from their end, but the first takes time and will undoubtedly see Johnson trying his best to obstruct it, and the second looks like it's going to be an epic ***********.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

One thing has occurred to me - the 19th wasn't a good choice of deadline for the Benn Act, because it's a Saturday. That means that if Johnson defies it, MPs aren't actually going to do anything about it until the 21st, which gives them 10 days to sort out a vote of no confidence, forming a new government, and getting an extension. The last shouldn't be a problem, since the EU are currently working on sorting all that out from their end, but the first takes time and will undoubtedly see Johnson trying his best to obstruct it, and the second looks like it's going to be an epic ***********.

They are sitting on Saturday 19 Oct 2019.

Quote:

MPs will be called to Parliament for a special Saturday sitting in a decisive day for the future of Brexit.

Parliament will meet on 19 October after a crunch EU summit - seen as the last chance for the UK and EU to agree a deal ahead of 31 October deadline.

If a deal is agreed, Boris Johnson will ask MPs to approve it - but if not, a range of options could be presented.

The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg says these could include leaving without a deal, and halting Brexit altogether.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49984367

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Okay, I'm wrong: twitter.com/i/web/status/1181830124985081862

Quote:

Whatever happens, deal or no deal, govt will call MPs to Westminster for a special sitting on Saturday Oct 19th - could be decisive day in Parliament in aftermath of EU summit

[Information Analyst]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

In a general election, it's not only the Labour voters that vote. In those Labour constituencies that voted Leave in the referendum, how do you think those same voters will vote in the next general election? If you're a Labour supporter, are you hoping that the leave voters will:

• stay at home and not vote?
• vote Labour anyway?
• split their vote between the Conservative and Brexit parties?

You spectacularly missing the point is your own problem.

[Information Analyst]

Originally Posted by Vixen

It's just a conspiracy theory.

Quote:

In short, there is no evidence that the hedge funds that have backed Johnson’s election campaign have “millions of pounds” of speculative bets on no-deal Brexit. They have millions of pounds of speculative bets on U.K. companies, yes, but that is simply business as usual. So this is yet another a tin-foil-hat conspiracy theory.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/frances...o-deal-brexit/

Well, they would say that, wouldn't they?

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1181814412400906241

Quote:

Exclusive with @elliotttimes

Five Cabinet ministers are understood to be on a No 10 resignation watchlist if the party pushes for a no-deal Brexit

They are Nicky Morgan, Julian Smith, Robert Buckland, Matt Hancock and Geoffrey Cox

Ministers are in open revolt over Dom Cummings and his push for no-deal

One told The Times: 'Cabinet will set the strategy not unelected officials.

'If this is an attempt to do that then it will fail. We are not a Cabinet of sock puppets and nodding dogs’

Another Cabinet minister told The Times they would find it 'very, very hard' to stay in Government if it campaigned for no-deal at election

They said a 'very large number' of Tory MPs will also quit the party

Worryingly for ministers Boris Johnson yesterday failed to inform his Cabinet about his crunch call with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, just half an hour earlier

He instead alluded to it vaguely, saying that a 'moment of compression' on Brexit was coming

Article embedded in first tweet.

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by Belgian thought

I thought that the EU parliament voted by a large majority in September to allow an extension should the UK request it.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/09/18/...-on-article-50

Has this position changed?

They'd have to change or amend directly Article 50, because Extension is up to heads of governments, not MEPs. There's no mention of that being changed.