Continuation The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 2

[portlandatheist]

I've been watching Dr. John Campbell's youtube daily briefings on Covid on and off. He has been hyping Vitamin D something fierce. It is disappointing the find out this is probably just another red herring.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by portlandatheist

I've been watching Dr. John Campbell's youtube daily briefings on Covid on and off. He has been hyping Vitamin D something fierce. It is disappointing the find out this is probably just another red herring.

So much wishful thinking there will be a magic bullet today and we can skip all the hard work and social distancing it takes to get there.

[Ulf Nereng]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Given all the deficiency in babies and kids, one has to ask why these groups aren't suffering high rates from COVID 19?

And if a significant vit D deficiency was as widespread as the article makes it seem, why isn't everyone sick?

RE the emerging flu pandemic, we've been on the verge of the next 1918 flu pandemic for decades. Not that it won't happen. One day it most certainly will.

I don't think you read the article that The Atheist linked to:

"There is striking lack of data in infants, children and adolescents worldwide..."

Why isn't everyone sick? Because not everyone is severely deficient in vitamin D, and everyone hasn't been infected, obviously.

Also, the claim is not that only those deficient in vitamin D gets sick, or dies. It's that such deficiency is one way your immune defence can be too weak to resist the virus.

If your house is empty while you're on holiday you should make sure to not only lock the front door, but also make sure the kitchen door and the windows are secure. There are more than one way a burglar can get into your house, and more than one way in which your immune defence can fail. That's what I'm saying.

[Ulf Nereng]

Originally Posted by portlandatheist

I've been watching Dr. John Campbell's youtube daily briefings on Covid on and off. He has been hyping Vitamin D something fierce. It is disappointing the find out this is probably just another red herring.

I think this is the relevant video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fIMkigtnk4&t=75s

The video has links to proper scientific papers which are well worth a look.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by alfaniner

The new thing being pushed is that masks may actually help protect you from getting the virus. That was the original push for wearing masks in the first place! It had evolved that they said you should wear a mask to protect others from getting infected by you.

ffs, just wear a mask!

It's sad that some people refuse to do it for altruistic reasons, but it's nice to know there might be a good selfish reason too!

I live in Yokohama, Japan and I commute to Tokyo. I was working from home for most of April and May, but started commuting to work twice a week since June. Today I took notice of what percentage of the people I saw on the commuter trains and train stations were wearing masks. I would estimate somewhere around 98% of the people I saw were wearing masks on the trains and in crowded areas in the station.

[Steve]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

This is valid.

I agree.

I will say the evidence of waning antibodies makes for a good news story but don't put too much stock in that for the moment. Until we see people getting reinfected, the finding of waning antibody might not be as significant as you think, at least not in the 6 month revaccination range. The immune system has a tendency to be reactivated with new exposures to the same virus.

For example, antibodies to the hepatitis B vaccine wane with time but immunity does not correlate with detectable circulating antibody. As long as there was documented immunity from the vaccine at some point, undetectable antibody, even at the time of an exposure, does not require a booster. The virus will stimulate the immune response.

The news media loves fear mongering.


This is a valid observation.

If we have a short lived vaccine there will be a number of variables at play.

First, if we eliminate the burden of the pathogen in large areas, it gives time for revaccinating, especially if rapid recognition of outbreaks and contact tracing is in place (ah the good old days when we had a functioning public health agency).

The drawback is there won't be a lot of natural boosting when a vaccinated person is exposed to the virus in the wild, naturally boosting the person's immunity. There is a bit of work going on now looking to see if lack of natural boosting to chicken pox (whether the initial immunity is from vaccine or natural disease) might contribute to an increase in shingles. You don't catch a new case of chicken pox if your immunity wanes, rather the latent virus in the person is reactivated.


Right now, the biggest problem we are facing was reiterated by the WHO today. Only a small fraction of the world's population has been infected so far. The pool of susceptible hosts is HUGE!

People who think this is over are really being misled by Trump and his fantasyland munchkins.

Thanks for the details. Always appreciate the insight of a professional in the relevant field.

[JeanTate]

Italian whole-town study finds 40% of coronavirus cases had no symptoms (Reuters, link).

Yes, something we discussed here a looong time ago (remember Vò?); now the results are published:

"A study of coronavirus infections that covered almost everyone in the quarantined north Italian town of Vò found that 40% of cases showed no symptoms - suggesting that asymptomatic cases are important in the spread of the pandemic."

40%, pace TA's 98%.

Reminds me of this yarn (I'm sure there are many versions) on the power of empirical observation over authority I guess (it's also a critique of Aristote, and his ideas on the numbers of teeth women vs men had):

"In the year of our Lord 1432, there arose a grievous quarrel among the brethren over the number of teeth in the mouth of a horse. For thirteen days the disputation raged without ceasing. All the ancient books and chronicles were fetched out, and wonderful and ponderous erudition such as was never before heard of in this region was made manifest. At the beginning of the fourteenth day, a youthful friar of goodly bearing asked his learned superiors for permission to add a word, and straightway, to the wonderment of the disputants, whose deep wisdom he sore vexed, he beseeched them to unbend in a manner coarse and unheard-of and to look in the open mouth of a horse and find answer to their questionings. At this, their dignity being grievously hurt, they waxed exceeding wroth; and, joining in a mighty uproar, they flew upon him and smote him, hip and thigh, and cast him out forthwith. For, said they, surely Satan hath tempted this bold neophyte to declare unholy and unheard-of ways of finding truth, contrary to all the teachings of the fathers. After many days more of grievous strife, the dove of peace sat on the assembly, and they as one man declaring the problem to be an everlasting mystery because of a grievous dearth of historical and theological evidence thereof, so ordered the same writ down."
— Francis Bacon (1561-1626) (source)

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Is your brother going to go in to be seen about his foot? He should regardless of the COVID issue.

He talked about seeing the doctor, but when I asked him today he said the pain went away so he didn't bother.

He also told me that he is taking a drug to keep the arthritis away, which means he should be extra careful about not getting Covid-19 (or any virus actually). Our state has done a much better job of containing Covid-19 than most, and since my brother has been working from home I thought he was safe. But he still got something. I don't want to catch anything either. Hoping that by being careful I can stay virus free forever!

[TellyKNeasuss]

100 teenagers from a Virginia county returned from a trip to Myrtle Beach with COVID-19.

https://wtop.com/loudoun-county/2020...-young-people/

A Washington Post article cites studies on how much mask wearing slows the spread of COVID-19 (cuts it by more than half) and how much a nation-wide mask mandate would help the US economy (5% of the GDP).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...goldman-sachs/

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng

I don't think you read the article that The Atheist linked to:

"There is striking lack of data in infants, children and adolescents worldwide..."

Did you not look at the graphs or read the whole thing?

[arthwollipot]

The United States has bought up the entire global stock of remdesivir, leaving none for any other country for at least the next three months.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

The United States has bought up the entire global stock of remdesivir, leaving none for any other country for at least the next three months.

That's going to totally backfire.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss

A Washington Post article cites studies on how much mask wearing slows the spread of COVID-19 (cuts it by more than half) and how much a nation-wide mask mandate would help the US economy (5% of the GDP).

I don't have a WaPo sub, but saying masks would save USA a trillion dollars doesn't sound right, so I'd like to see how they get that figure.

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

The United States has bought up the entire global stock of remdesivir, leaving none for any other country for at least the next three months.

Not that big a deal - it's not that hard to produce and only pushed the share price up 2%. Plus, while early results were encouraging, it's not a pandemic-stopper in any way.

Compare how much they spent on hydroxychloroquine, that they now don't want.

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Not that big a deal - it's not that hard to produce and only pushed the share price up 2%.

It is a big deal, but in the way you think. If remdesivir turns out to actually be effective, how many countries will say "**** the patent, the lives of our citizens are more important"? This could be the beginning of the end for drug patents!

[TellyKNeasuss]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I don't have a WaPo sub, but saying masks would save USA a trillion dollars doesn't sound right, so I'd like to see how they get that figure.

It was taken from a Goldman Sachs report:

Quote:

Country-level comparisons show a similarly large effect. “Our numerical estimates are that cumulative cases grow 17.3% per week without a mask mandate but only 7.3% with a mask mandate, and that cumulative fatalities grow 29% per week without a mask mandate but only 16% with a mask mandate,” the authors write.

Applying those figures to the entire United States, the authors estimate a nationwide mask mandate could dramatically slow the daily growth rate of new infections, from roughly 1.6 percent to roughly 0.6 percent. To get an equivalent effect from an economic shutdown, you’d have to subtract 5 percent from GDP.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

.... Not that big a deal - it's not that hard to produce and only pushed the share price up 2%. Plus, while early results were encouraging, it's not a pandemic-stopper in any way.

Compare how much they spent on hydroxychloroquine, that they now don't want.

Did you miss the part about needed 3 months to produce the next batch?

Not to mention the optics of it.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

It is a big deal, but in the way you think. If remdesivir turns out to actually be effective, how many countries will say "**** the patent, the lives of our citizens are more important"? This could be the beginning of the end for drug patents!

I'm wondering if that won't be a good thing.

The drug companies continually threaten to end R&D if they can't make billions with their patents. I'd have to sidetrack the thread to discuss all the good things that can come from shifting medical research out of the for profit market.

[Orphia Nay]

Melbourne. Anecdotal data.

I saw someone say:

they live "200 meters from Werribee Plaza, one of the biggest & extreme cultural mix. Most people I know around here think we had corona back in January/ February when nobody was getting tested."

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss

It was taken from a Goldman Sachs report:

Thanks for that, and as I suspected, it's bollocks, because there aren't going to be more shutdowns.

USA is in the position of full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Thanks for that, and as I suspected, it's bollocks, because there aren't going to be more shutdowns.

USA is in the position of full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes.

That's if you only look at one aspect: GOP politics.

There's a limiting factor: Everyone notices when the hospitals overflow and run out of ventilators and ICU beds.

Already some of the GOP governors are putting on the breaks.

[Solitaire]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

It is a big deal, but in the way you think. If remdesivir turns out to actually be
effective, how many countries will say "**** the patent, the lives of our citizens
are more important"? This could be the beginning of the end for drug patents!

On this I'm going to have to disagree. It seems that under a Compulsory
License any company who manufactures the drug must pay a a fee set either
by agreement with the patent holder or through court of law arbitration.

Upshot, patent company gets money and doesn't have to do any extra work
such as manufacturing, testing, or distribution, and probably doesn't face any
legal liabilities either.

[The Atheist]

Emphasising the randomness of Covid - a supremely fit 40 yo who spent 25 days on a ventilator: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/30/h...rnd/index.html

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Already some of the GOP governors are putting on the breaks.

And some are not.

Florida

CDC says it's out of control and can't be stopped.

[pipelineaudio]

It was a democratic governor here who opened the churches and refused to enforce the visitor quarantine. ENough with the dumb politics...WHat party is the governor in california again?

[Bob001]

No one should imagine that covid is anything like flu.

Quote:

When the pandemic hit the United States in late March, many hospital systems were too overwhelmed trying to save lives to spend too much time delving into the secrets of the dead. But by late May and June, the first large batch of reports — from patients who died at a half-dozen different institutions — were published in quick succession. The investigations have confirmed some of our early hunches of the disease, refuted others — and opened up new mysteries about the novel pathogen that has killed more than 500,000 people worldwide.

Among the most important findings, consistent across several studies, is confirmation the virus appears to attack the lungs the most ferociously. They also found the pathogen in parts of the brain, kidneys, liver, gastrointestinal tract, spleen and in the endothelial cells that line blood vessels, as some had previously suspected. Researchers also found widespread clotting in many organs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...sies-findings/

[marting]

On the question of building A/C and general issue of ventilation in buildings this just got discussed by the Atlantic.

Quote:

Coughing in a well-ventilated room is sort of like peeing in a river as opposed to a hot tub: Ideally you wouldn’t do either, but one is definitely worse.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...andemic/613438

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

More than 100 times that in Florida alone yesterday. 40,450 in the USA, on a Sunday, when reporting is usually lower. Very bad news.

Originally Posted by marting

On the question of building A/C and general issue of ventilation in buildings this just got discussed by the Atlantic.



https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...andemic/613438

Someone studying the virus said yesterday that the virus's favourite conditions are low humidity under 10 degrees Celsius.

[Orphia Nay]

I was saying a week or so ago on Channel 9 on Facebook I'd volunteer to be a test subject for vaccines.

So are these three on Reddit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/commen...ks_and_wilson/

Not that any trials have asked yet.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

I was saying a week or so ago on Channel 9 on Facebook I'd volunteer to be a test subject for vaccines.

You could be a subject for whether they do harm, but having had Covid, they couldn't use you to see if it works.

[Puppycow]

Antibody tests may not tell the whole story:

Coronavirus: Immunity may be more widespread than tests suggest (BBC)

Quote:

For every person testing positive for antibodies, two were found to have specific T-cells which identify and destroy infected cells.

This was seen even in people who had mild or symptomless cases of Covid-19.
. . .

This could mean a wider group have some level of immunity to Covid-19 than antibody testing figures, like those published as part of the UK Office for National Statistics Infection Survey, suggest.
. . .

Prof Danny Altmann at Imperial College London described the study as "robust, impressive and thorough" and said it added to a growing body of evidence that "antibody testing alone underestimates immunity".

I'm not sure what it all means, but the human immune system is more complicated than just "antibodies". There are T-cells and others that are involved, so maybe antibodies aren't strictly necessary?

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I'm not sure what it all means, but the human immune system is more complicated than just "antibodies". There are T-cells and others that are involved, so maybe antibodies aren't strictly necessary?

I saw that story and also have no clue what it means. Are those people naturally high in T-cells and didn't catch it, or were they exposed but never caught it?

Someone will hopefully unpack it a little.

[Capsid]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I saw that story and also have no clue what it means. Are those people naturally high in T-cells and didn't catch it, or were they exposed but never caught it?

Someone will hopefully unpack it a little.

It's all part of the normal immune response. Both T and B (antibody) cells are produced upon infection, but T cells are not usually tested for as this requires technically demanding cell culture methods over several days. Antibodies levels can decline but T cells remain as memory cells that can restart the immune response on a secondary exposure. T cells can also have direct effector functions on virus-infected cells. Given that antibody can't be made without T cells then this is nothing new but highlights that a negative antibody response may not mean much and it's not clear what the antibody test will tell us, as we don't know what level of antibody correlates to immunity from infection. However, given that you can recover then some immune mechanism is in play.

[Puppycow]

https://www.fastcompany.com/90519909...than-projected

Quote:

Countries where everyone wore masks saw COVID death rates 100 times lower than projected
Now that there is global data about where COVID is spreading, scientists can see the various factors that help mitigate its spread. The simplest and most effective: masks.

OK. Grain of salt maybe but there does seem to be a huge difference between countries where people wore masks from the start and those who didn't.

[marting]

A new observational study in conflict with most previous ones on Hydroxychloroquine showing significant (50%) mortality reduction.

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Combination in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...534-8/fulltext

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by marting

A new observational study in conflict with most previous ones on Hydroxychloroquine showing significant (50%) mortality reduction.

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Combination in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...534-8/fulltext

It's not a new study. Maybe it's newly reported. The patients were in the hospital between

Quote:

March 10,2020 to May 2,2020

I don't understand how these patients were assigned to the treatment groups.

Quote:

Limitations to our analysis include the retrospective, non-randomized, non-blinded study design.

They did exclude patients with preexisting cardiac issues, apparently.


Anyway, I don't see this as a conclusive study of anything. I've said it before, if these drugs were very useful, we'd have seen that and been using them already.

[marting]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

I don't understand how these patients were assigned to the treatment groups.

I was struck by the death rate in the immediate days after admission. The group they assigned to Hydroxychloroquine died at a far, far lower rate in the first few days then deaths gradually increased through the rest of the hospitalization. The other group died more rapidly but plateaued.

This smells of some significant difference in the initial selection. So, yeah, I'm suspicious.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Capsid

It's all part of the normal immune response. Both T and B (antibody) cells are produced upon infection, but T cells are not usually tested for as this requires technically demanding cell culture methods over several days. Antibodies levels can decline but T cells remain as memory cells that can restart the immune response on a secondary exposure. T cells can also have direct effector functions on virus-infected cells. Given that antibody can't be made without T cells then this is nothing new but highlights that a negative antibody response may not mean much and it's not clear what the antibody test will tell us, as we don't know what level of antibody correlates to immunity from infection. However, given that you can recover then some immune mechanism is in play.

Ok, thanks.

The next question is, does that mean the T cells are there in response to Covid, or could they be there as a result of a different infection?

[Capsid]

The T cell response is specific, same as antibodies.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[The Atheist]

Thanks!

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by marting

I was struck by the death rate in the immediate days after admission. The group they assigned to Hydroxychloroquine died at a far, far lower rate in the first few days then deaths gradually increased through the rest of the hospitalization. The other group died more rapidly but plateaued.

This smells of some significant difference in the initial selection. So, yeah, I'm suspicious.

But they didn't "assign" them. They looked back at patients already given the meds.

Unless you read something I didn't.