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Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

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Old 21st August 2019, 11:06 AM   #561
TragicMonkey
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Ok, civil war then. Go.
One half of the Hyperbole Twins checked in. Fire up the Light Rail Signal so we can get the other one!
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Old 21st August 2019, 01:20 PM   #562
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Good God, why?! Biden's much less like Sanders than Warren is! What is wrong with people?!


Tall white man?
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Old 21st August 2019, 01:46 PM   #563
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post



I've been reading about the Lincoln-Douglas debates. Douglas tried to appeal to the center, and he did win the Senate seat. Lincoln was the idealist who didn't concede as much to the opposition (although he did concede some things) and he lost the Senate seat...but won the presidency on the strength of those debates. From his perspective it was worth it. Douglas ran for the presidency himself and got one state and part of New Jersey. And historians pretty much agree that a Douglas presidency still would have resulted in the Civil War anyway. The middle ground was inherently untenable, occupying it was no key to success.


Beto O’Rourke was probably reading about those debates too. He lost a Senate campaign but ran really well and attracted a national audience. Too bad he’s not tall like Lincoln and has to stand on tables when he speaks.
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Old 21st August 2019, 01:53 PM   #564
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Originally Posted by carlitos View Post
Beto O’Rourke was probably reading about those debates too. He lost a Senate campaign but ran really well and attracted a national audience. Too bad he’s not tall like Lincoln and has to stand on tables when he speaks.
There is nothing quite so dead as last year's fad.
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Old 21st August 2019, 02:12 PM   #565
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post

There are many on The Right who are un-enthusiastic about Trump, and may be inclined to vote against him (or not vote for the POTUS at all) if the candidate we run does not trigger the knee-jerk "OMG SOCIALISTS!!!!" as readily as some of our more left leaning options.

In order to win, it is likely that we will need a candidate who will do well amongst the (small) number of Independents- while not stirring the lukewarm to cold Right leaning voters into action.
Independents used to be "centrists", but generally aren't any more.

https://www.people-press.org/2019/03...at-they-think/

Someone like Sanders will have as good of a shot at getting "independents" as Biden.
See: https://www.politico.com/blogs/polit...-trump-1470650

Quote:
“Our polling shows 38 percent of independents and 9 percent of Republicans say they would vote for Biden over Trump, respectively. Bernie Sanders receives the same level of support among independents but less Republican support at 6 percent,
A Generic Centrist democrat is also unlikely to inspire a high degree of voter turnout for the democratic party, too. Getting an "Obama 2008" level of turnout will be key to a 2020 victory.
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Old 21st August 2019, 02:15 PM   #566
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yep. You're either 100% completely "Causiest of the cause" on your side or your some wishy-washy both sides are equal middle of the roader. Yep.

I want Trump stopped more then I care about the Democrat Party's ego. Crucify me.
Good. Sounds like you would vote Sanders if he got the nomination, then.

And I don’t see the rust belt shying away from Sanders as much as you see it happening. I think Medicare for all and higher wages would be attractive policies that Hillary Goldman-Sachs Clinton wasn’t offering.
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Old 21st August 2019, 03:10 PM   #567
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Independents used to be "centrists", but generally aren't any more.

https://www.people-press.org/2019/03...at-they-think/

Someone like Sanders will have as good of a shot at getting "independents" as Biden.
See: https://www.politico.com/blogs/polit...-trump-1470650



A Generic Centrist democrat is also unlikely to inspire a high degree of voter turnout for the democratic party, too. Getting an "Obama 2008" level of turnout will be key to a 2020 victory.
True, Sanders may have a larger draw among Independents. That would be ,IMO ,more than negated by the motivation he would give to the "OMG SOCIALISM!!!!" crowd.

Biden, OTOH, may draw fewer Independents, yet the small difference there would be more than offset when compared to the number of Republican-leaning voters who would be happy to not vote for Trump if the Democratic candidate is slightly acceptable.

As to the "inspiration" of Liberals. There is no candidate that can inspire us as much as Trump already has.
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Old 21st August 2019, 03:15 PM   #568
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yep. You're either 100% completely "Causiest of the cause" on your side or your some wishy-washy both sides are equal middle of the roader. Yep.

I want Trump stopped more then I care about the Democrat Party's ego. Crucify me.
Democratic Party.

And it's not the party who is doing purity tests. They are pretty content with a left but not too left candidate.
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Old 21st August 2019, 03:16 PM   #569
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Good. Sounds like you would vote Sanders if he got the nomination, then.

And I don’t see the rust belt shying away from Sanders as much as you see it happening. I think Medicare for all and higher wages would be attractive policies that Hillary Goldman-Sachs Clinton wasn’t offering.
The rust belt voters are too practical (or cynical) to expect Sanders' promises to ever reach fruition.
They will turn out for nice, boring, Uncle Joe. And hope things improve just a little.
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:47 PM   #570
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Good God, why?! Biden's much less like Sanders than Warren is! What is wrong with people?!
I've been asking that question for a while now. Here is my best guess: he's an old white guy. He's the safe candidate. It's not that anyone actually wants him for being an old white guy, they just don't trust everyone else not to want an old white guy.

Look at any discussion about his electability. No one ever says Biden is their personal favorite pick. It's always somebody else who won't bother to vote if they can't vote for him.

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Good. Sounds like you would vote Sanders if he got the nomination, then.
I'd like to think the majority of America is in a "The Democrat 2020" position by now. Voting blue no matter who.

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Old 21st August 2019, 08:56 PM   #571
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I suspect Obama picked Biden as his VP to quell the unease of white middle America.

That's pretty much all Biden's got going for him right now. He's milking his name recognition, name dropping Obama every other ad or public appearance.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:02 PM   #572
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
It depends on your definitions of "North America" and "native". There are monkey populations living in the wilds of South Carolina right now, several generations having been born there. And if you consider the North American continent to begin at the Isthmus of Panama then there are lots of native monkeys. Central America is a region, not a separate continent in itself.
There are wild macaques living in Florida, too. They have been there for decades. And since it's Florida, many of them carry a strain of herpes that is very dangerous for humans.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:14 PM   #573
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Wrong. The person making the claim can back it up. I’m not searching to substantiate someone else’s claim.
Blah blah blah.... Good for you.


Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Then lead by example. You’ve claimed two things I haven’t done.
Like claiming I was backing Travis' claims?
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:22 PM   #574
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
As to the "inspiration" of Liberals. There is no candidate that can inspire us as much as Trump already has.
I'm not convinced merely being "not Trump" is going to work a lot better in 2020 than it did in 2016.

We probably need more to get back to 2008 turnout levels.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:28 PM   #575
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
The rust belt voters are too practical (or cynical) to expect Sanders' promises to ever reach fruition.
They will turn out for nice, boring, Uncle Joe. And hope things improve just a little.
Warren and Sanders are doing better in Wisconsin and Iowa than Biden is.

Quote:
Elizabeth Warren (29%), Bernie Sanders (24%), and Joe Biden (20%) lead the Democratic primary in Wisconsin
Quote:
Elizabeth Warren (28%), Bernie Sanders (17%), and Joe Biden (17%) have the highest levels of support among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa.

Warren leads among all caucus-goers except 18-34 year-olds. Sanders leads this group with a 14-point lead with 35%.

Warren leads among both female and male caucus-goers in Iowa with 31% and 22%, respectively.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:28 PM   #576
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
There is an undeniable difference: Clinton had been demonized for decades, in a way that no other candidate has experienced. There was/is a hatred for her that is semi-unique.
Which is a caution to Democrats in this primary, we have to include demonize-ability when voting in the primary. I'm not saying every candidate doesn't have these problems, so one must also consider how astute they are at countering propaganda.

Biden as a long history of gaffes, bad votes, and creepy hair kissing that can easily be demonized. I don't believe the "Obama-Biden administration did this and that" is a winning strategy. It reeks of "Senator, you are no Obama."

Sanders and Warren are not only going to be attacked as 'too radical', as 'socialists', and as 'communists', they are also going to be trashed with the end to private health insurance platform. I get it it's the right thing to do, but if they can't sell it without saying private insurance has to go, they are dangerously close to the precipice of losing to Trump propaganda.

IMO: if they don't change, we need someone else. There's still time.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:36 PM   #577
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Sanders and Warren are not only going to be attacked as 'too radical', as 'socialists', and as 'communists', they are also going to be trashed with the end to private health insurance platform. I get it it's the right thing to do, but if they can't sell it without saying private insurance has to go, they are dangerously close to the precipice of losing to Trump propaganda.
I deeply suspect Warren will release one of her famous plans on healthcare, elucidating the role private health care would play under M4A. It's only "banned" when it's covering a "duplicate" service, according to the bill Sanders wrote and she co-sponsored.

So, she could emphasize that "lots" of people in the UK and Australia have private insurance, and use it for things like "fast-track access" to things like knee and hip replacements (which would not necessarily be a duplication of coverage in the US.)
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Old 22nd August 2019, 12:09 AM   #578
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Blah blah blah.... Good for you.


Like claiming I was backing Travis' claims?
Are you still going on about this? I am happy to accept your posting was completely pointless, and not a backing of his claim (which I never said you were doing).
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 22nd August 2019, 12:29 AM   #579
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Which is a caution to Democrats in this primary, we have to include demonize-ability when voting in the primary. I'm not saying every candidate doesn't have these problems, so one must also consider how astute they are at countering propaganda.

Biden as a long history of gaffes, bad votes, and creepy hair kissing that can easily be demonized. I don't believe the "Obama-Biden administration did this and that" is a winning strategy. It reeks of "Senator, you are no Obama."

Sanders and Warren are not only going to be attacked as 'too radical', as 'socialists', and as 'communists', they are also going to be trashed with the end to private health insurance platform. I get it it's the right thing to do, but if they can't sell it without saying private insurance has to go, they are dangerously close to the precipice of losing to Trump propaganda.

IMO: if they don't change, we need someone else. There's still time.
Tom Styron could still catch fire, or Harris could gain back the black vote, right? Maybe old horseface John Kerry could ride in to the rescue?
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Old 22nd August 2019, 01:31 AM   #580
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Biden's kind of likeable but... why does he have so much support?
Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Perhaps because after the past three years, a known, establishment figure has certain appeal. And because of Obama's popularity. But mainly because he's perceived to have the best chance of winning.
Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
His support comes from the perception (with some evidence) that he is the most likely Democrat to unseat Trump.
That's pretty much it.
I have to admit, that is a strong motivator for me. There are other Democratic candidates I would prefer to be President, but more important is the candidates ability to actually become President- as that factor renders all others moot.

In this field and this far out, though, it's well worth remembering that name recognition is fairly certainly still the most major factor in play. Coming in second is likely perceptions of electability, both of which are distinctly affected by the media.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 02:05 AM   #581
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Because the idea that moderates are less important then extreme Democrats is frankly absurd and I don't why that's the narrative the Democrats keep trying to sell that as the narrative.
Objection - even Bernie Sanders is nowhere remotely close to the extreme left. Don't fall for that hostile framing. Don't indulge it, either. There's lots of actually extreme right-wingers in the GOP and the GOP is pandering to them. There's no (or practically no) extreme left-wingers in the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party isn't pandering to the actual far left. Don't allow the false equivalence to twist your perception.

I'm going to insert another post, though, because it's close enough to this to address them both with one thing.

Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
The calculus is thus:

The Left is already highly motivated to turn out this election, our disdain for the current occupant of the White House demands it.

In and of itself, our motivation to vote may not be enough to overcome institutional roadblocks and secure the office of POTUS.

There are many on The Right who are un-enthusiastic about Trump, and may be inclined to vote against him (or not vote for the POTUS at all) if the candidate we run does not trigger the knee-jerk "OMG SOCIALISTS!!!!" as readily as some of our more left leaning options.

In order to win, it is likely that we will need a candidate who will do well amongst the (small) number of Independents- while not stirring the lukewarm to cold Right leaning voters into action.

At this time, Biden seems to be the best prospect for that. I don't think many of us actually expect him to govern (or even survive his first term), but he may be the one most able to give us a "rubber stamp" presidency.
This seems relevant.


Quote:
As a corollary to that, would you say concerns that "We shouldn’t do X because Trump will exploit it to rile up his supporters" are off-base, because that's going to happen anyway?

Absolutely. In fact, in the district-level analysis of the voter file in California and Virginia that I'll be releasing after Labor Day, I have competitive districts in those states. The data shows the turnout surge and how much different the composition of the electorate was between 2014 and 2018. I'm also able to show that even in these districts where Democrats ran Blue Dog candidates who were as unobtrusive as possible — with, exactly as you stated, the goal of not riling up Trump voters — the turnout for Republican voters in those districts was huge.

In fact, not only did Democrats not get the benefit of not stirring up the Trump base — the Trump base was stirred up and showed up in huge numbers — but by not tapping into anti-Trump sentiment in their own campaign strategy, by not intentionally activating that Trump angst, they paid a price in terms of their own base turnout. It was depressed, compared to other districts.
Expect very high turnout from the Republicans and Republican-leaning folk, no matter who the Democratic candidate is, in short, just like in 2018. Going out of the way to try to avoid riling up those who are already riled up or will be riled up at the drop of a hat is not optimal strategy.


Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yep. You're either 100% completely "Causiest of the cause" on your side or your some wishy-washy both sides are equal middle of the roader. Yep.

I want Trump stopped more then I care about the Democrat Party's ego. Crucify me.
Most Democrats do want Trump stopped as a very high priority. Not all Democrats are sold on arguments that seem to pretty clearly be based on demonstrably faulty claims.


Also, separately, looks like Inslee's dropping out.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 03:24 AM   #582
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
One half of the Hyperbole Twins checked in. Fire up the Light Rail Signal so we can get the other one!
Yes. And?

If not civil war, and not compromise, what?
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Old 22nd August 2019, 05:06 AM   #583
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Objection - even Bernie Sanders is nowhere remotely close to the extreme left. Don't fall for that hostile framing.
His healthcare policy is to the left of every Western country with universal healthcare. He is the extreme left on that issue.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 05:10 AM   #584
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Originally Posted by FenerFan View Post
There are wild macaques living in Florida, too. They have been there for decades. And since it's Florida, many of them carry a strain of herpes that is very dangerous for humans.
Heh. The South Carolina monkeys may attack you if they feel threatened. The Florida monkeys will give you a disease if you have sex with them. I never realized wild monkeys reflect the character of their state!

Missouri has no wild monkeys, monkeys are too delicate to survive meth.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 05:15 AM   #585
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Yes. And?

If not civil war, and not compromise, what?
We were talking about how a candidate should run their campaign, not about how they could seize power in a coup if they lose. If someone loses they lose, and either they try again next time or someone else does. Hopefully having learned from the mistakes of the previous losers but that's apparently an unreasonable request, seeing how many versions of Dukakis have run forever.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 05:20 AM   #586
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
We were talking about how a candidate should run their campaign, not about how they could seize power in a coup if they lose.
Yeah, I know that. But if you're not willing to compromise, what then?
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Old 22nd August 2019, 05:30 AM   #587
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Yeah, I know that. But if you're not willing to compromise, what then?
Again, I don't think you're talking about the same thing. If a candidate doesn't compromise on their positions they either win or lose, just like every other candidate. If they win and don't compromise on their principles they either get things done or they don't, just like every other elected official.

I don't believe it's an automatic given that compromise is always required in all things in order to win an election or get things done if in office. I realize that's controversial to the unprincipled surrender monkeys who lost the last election and hope to succeed this time by repeating their mistakes.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 05:37 AM   #588
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Again, I don't think you're talking about the same thing.
Ok then let's start over.

Hello, my name's Belz..., oh, I see from your avatar that you may need some skin care products...

Quote:
I don't believe it's an automatic given that compromise is always required in all things in order to win an election or get things done if in office.
It's not a given, but it makes sense that more moderate positions will appeal to more people.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 05:40 AM   #589
TragicMonkey
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
It's not a given, but it makes sense that more moderate positions will appeal to more people.
I find that many things people declare "make sense" are actually completely wrong. So I attach very little value to that particular assertion without evidence.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 05:56 AM   #590
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I find that many things people declare "make sense" are actually completely wrong. So I attach very little value to that particular assertion without evidence.
Fair enough.

Do you think more far-left views are therefore more popular than moderate ones?
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Old 22nd August 2019, 06:00 AM   #591
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Fair enough.

Do you think more far-left views are therefore more popular than moderate ones?
I don't know. I have observed that candidates popularly perceived as moderate haven't been performing as well in elections, and less moderate political figures appear to have more fans than moderates do.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 09:22 AM   #592
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Okay screw politics, screw the future of the country in 2020 I'm voting for which ever candidate's bumper stickers I see the least on cars cutting me off as if that merge just jumped out at you and hadn't been happening for the last mile and had signs telling you it was going to happen for miles before that.

//Obviously joking rant, but people in traffic were being really stupid today for some reason//
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Old 22nd August 2019, 09:30 AM   #593
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I don't know. I have observed that candidates popularly perceived as moderate haven't been performing as well in elections, and less moderate political figures appear to have more fans than moderates do.
You're forgetting how Trump swamped Killary by compromising on things like his unreasonable demand that Mexico build a wall and that his opponent be thrown in jail without due process. Once he told conceded on those outrageous issues he finally pulled ahead and won, but before that no one gave him a chance in hell.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 09:55 AM   #594
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Fair enough.

Do you think more far-left views are therefore more popular than moderate ones?
Wasn’t Obama considered “more far-left” than Hillary Clinton in 2008? If so, yes, his views were more popular.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 10:28 AM   #595
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Fair enough.

Do you think more far-left views are therefore more popular than moderate ones?
I do. I've seen plenty of polls showing a majority of Americans support the kinds of things Bernie Sanders talks about. Here are two sources I found within five seconds of searching:

https://verdict.justia.com/2019/04/0...hey-so-popular
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-amer...ll-health-care

When it comes to things like universal healthcare, fighting climate change, increased gun regulation, higher minimum wages, etc., most Americans are in favor of policies that are usually considered "far-left." For the most part, appeals to the middle are misguided, IMO, and based on the fallacious ideas that compromise of the solution to everything and that most people must be centrist because reasons. Even during a town hall on Fox news, Bernie Sanders' ideas were greeted with cheers from the crowd, and you could argue that many of Trump's favorite campaign promises were somewhat in line with ideals of the left (cleaning up corruption, providing better healthcare, cutting military spending, enacting polices to increase employment, etc.) As far as I can tell, despite the GOP trying hard to move the Overton windows of politics to the right (and mostly succeeding), the wider public generally embraces left-leaning ideas more.

Last edited by ArchSas; 22nd August 2019 at 10:35 AM.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 10:32 AM   #596
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Most Americans, but if we account for the way elections actually work? With districts and the EC and all?
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Old 22nd August 2019, 10:40 AM   #597
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
.... Expect very high turnout from the Republicans and Republican-leaning folk, no matter who the Democratic candidate is, in short, just like in 2018. Going out of the way to try to avoid riling up those who are already riled up or will be riled up at the drop of a hat is not optimal strategy. ....
Don't forget the Russians had an army of bots and trolls making an explicit effort to rile up GOP voters to turn out to fight Satan and the demon Hillary.
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Old 22nd August 2019, 10:41 AM   #598
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Don't forget the Russians had an army of bots and trolls making an explicit effort to rile up GOP voters to turn out to fight Satan and the demon Hillary.
Imagine the chaos next time, what with China and other interests pitching in, and the US doing nothing to solve the issue...
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Old 22nd August 2019, 10:44 AM   #599
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
His healthcare policy is to the left of every Western country with universal healthcare. He is the extreme left on that issue.
What?
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Old 22nd August 2019, 10:50 AM   #600
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Most Americans, but if we account for the way elections actually work? With districts and the EC and all?
If you want to make the claim that gerrymandering, voter suppression, fake news, and the EC have made the American election process messy and somewhat undemocratic, I'm not going to disagree with that. The GOP does all they can to rig the system in their favor, and a lot of the time, it works (sometimes with outside help).

But that's not what you originally asked. You asked if "far-left" views were more popular than moderate ones, and that's what I was replying to. Evidence shows they actually are. Whether or not that's reflected in elections is a different matter, sadly.
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