ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

Reply
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:28 PM   #721
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12,255
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Some (even most) will do everything they can to stop the 'Evil Librul Democrats', others will actually be less energized, unless they can see an actual threat (such as Sanders taking away people's private insurance.) Granted we are only talking about a minority of Republicans, but when you have elections that are decided on only a few thousand votes in a couple of swing states, then even getting a few of the less eager republicans to sit out the 2020 election can make a difference.
You have to pay attention to voter enthusiasm/turnout on the democratic side, too, though.

A candidate that can further motivate a Republican to vote against the democratic candidate can also inspire an even greater degree of turnout from left-leaning voters to vote FOR a candidate. This is what we saw with the nazi-communist-Kenyan Candidate Obama.

Quote:
After all, despite significant evidence that Trump was a racist, many african American voters who had supported Obama sat out the 2016 election. Sometimes motivation matters.
That's sort of my point. Obama won because he inspired even greater turnout on the left side of the ledger.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:31 PM   #722
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12,255
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I don't know if anyone here would have believed it. But, we're not exactly typical of the American electorate. I suspect a large portion of the general electorate would believe her when she said she was against the TPP.
I saw the same thing from all the pro as well as anti-Clinton people I know on facebook, too, on local and national political boards.

Nobody believed it.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:38 PM   #723
Delphic Oracle
Illuminator
 
Delphic Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,616
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I don't know if anyone here would have believed it. But, we're not exactly typical of the American electorate. I suspect a large portion of the general electorate would believe her when she said she was against the TPP.
I think the overall takeaway was that she is someone who will say whatever sounds pleasing to whoever is in front of her at that moment or appeases whatever concern was just brought up. This unfortunately reminds a lot of people of someone in their own life, probably a good bit in the past, and probably not the greatest memories. Especially not if they were in a position of relative authority and got caught up in decisions that came out of the ether (and then perhaps about-faced just as quickly at some point later...).

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 3rd September 2019 at 03:39 PM.
Delphic Oracle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 03:51 PM   #724
Delphic Oracle
Illuminator
 
Delphic Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,616
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
You have to pay attention to voter enthusiasm/turnout on the democratic side, too, though.

A candidate that can further motivate a Republican to vote against the democratic candidate can also inspire an even greater degree of turnout from left-leaning voters to vote FOR a candidate. This is what we saw with the nazi-communist-Kenyan Candidate Obama.



That's sort of my point. Obama won because he inspired even greater turnout on the left side of the ledger.
Right or left have camps who's desired outcome is transformative (willing to risk). Sure, a lot may have meandering, if vague, ideas of the utopia that will come about, but the common thread is "not anything familiar or normal or predictable."

I think back to Obama's steering the car analogy now and think there are a whole lot of people who do very much want someone to jerk the wheel over and put us in the ditch because they want out of the car. They want a new car on some other road to some other destination and a new set of fellow passengers. Definitely no more of that driver, please.

Neo-whatever-ism is dead on arrival right now. Nationalism is highly preferable over global integration.

ETA: There are ways to do nationalism the closed, scared, insecure, way of violently lashing out and then there are ways to do nationalism as public investments predicated upon making ourselves more independently sustainable. For example, "energy independence" sells well across the spectrum. The devil is in the details, of course, but there are left and right ways of achieving it. But the very fact that any version of it scares the crap out of hydrocarbon companies is half the appeal to that kind of voter.

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 3rd September 2019 at 03:58 PM.
Delphic Oracle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 04:02 PM   #725
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12,255
Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Right or left have camps who's desired outcome is transformative (willing to risk). Sure, a lot may have meandering, if vague, ideas of the utopia that will come about, but the common thread is "not anything familiar or normal or predictable."

I think back to Obama's steering the car analogy now and think there are a whole lot of people who do very much want someone to jerk the wheel over and put us in the ditch because they want out of the car. They want a new car on some other road to some other destination and a new set of fellow passengers. Definitely no more of that driver, please.

Neo-whatever-ism is dead on arrival right now. Nationalism is highly preferable over global integration.

ETA: There are ways to do nationalism the closed, scared, insecure, way of violently lashing out and then there are ways to do nationalism as public investments predicated upon making ourselves more independently sustainable. For example, "energy independence" sells well across the spectrum. The devil is in the details, of course, but there are left and right ways of achieving it. But the very fact that any version of it scares the crap out of hydrocarbon companies is half the appeal to that kind of voter.
Similar to what you're saying, I read this breakdown on the "logic" of many Trump voters a while back, and I think there has to be some element of truth to it. (I recommend reading the whole thing.)

https://qz.com/737452/why-trump-vote...a-photo-essay/

Quote:
Frustrated with broken promises, they gave up on the knowable and went with the unknowable. They chose Trump, because he comes with a very high distribution. A high volatility. (He also signals in ugly ways, that he might just move them, and only them and their friends, higher with his stated policies).

As any trader will tell you, if you are stuck lower, you want volatility, uncertainty. No matter how it comes. Put another way. Your downside is flat, your upside isn’t. Break the system.

The elites loathe volatility. Because, the upside is limited, but the downside isn’t. In option language, they are in the money.


To put it in very non-geeky language: A two-tiered system has one set of people who want to keep the system, and another that doesn’t. Each one is voting for their own best interests. (Yes, there are always altruistic people. But…..)
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 04:42 PM   #726
Delphic Oracle
Illuminator
 
Delphic Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,616
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Similar to what you're saying, I read this breakdown on the "logic" of many Trump voters a while back, and I think there has to be some element of truth to it. (I recommend reading the whole thing.)

https://qz.com/737452/why-trump-vote...a-photo-essay/
Yes. People would elect gremlins to run public works right now. It will hurt "them" more than "us" to do so.
Delphic Oracle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 08:39 PM   #727
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 5,536
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
I don't know if you've noticed, but that "someone" is anyone who runs as a Democrat.
All democrats are "far left" to Republicans.

Hillary Clinton was never seen as anything BUT a far-left Democrat to Republicans. Same with Obama.
Predictable consequence of choosing to move right, move right, move right, move right, move right...


Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
You have to pay attention to voter enthusiasm/turnout on the democratic side, too, though.

A candidate that can further motivate a Republican to vote against the democratic candidate can also inspire an even greater degree of turnout from left-leaning voters to vote FOR a candidate. This is what we saw with the nazi-communist-Kenyan Candidate Obama.



That's sort of my point. Obama won because he inspired even greater turnout on the left side of the ledger.
And it's also quite worth remembering... left-leaning folks tend to significantly outnumber right-leaning folk. Right-leaning folk generally win because the propagandists on their side are notably more effective... and by rigging the field to their advantage.

Speaking of which... Trump allies raise money to target reporters.

That's pretty much as the headline says. They're literally targeting the media itself with underhanded means. That's not the tactics of a group that's civil, reasonable, or, dare I say it... actually conservative.


On other news, looks like Warren's adopted Inslee's climate plan and is calling for the others to do the same.
__________________
So sayeth the crazy little dragon.

Last edited by Aridas; 3rd September 2019 at 08:43 PM.
Aridas is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd September 2019, 09:41 PM   #728
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader
TLA Dictator
 
Foolmewunz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 41,468
I'm sticking with my original vision of the 2020 election. The Dems in a bit of disarray is a good thing. The laser-like focus on Hillary throughout 2014-15 was not a good thing. Yeah, the also-rans in the Democratic Party had a point... how dare they anoint her just because it's her turn?

But what hurt Hillary and the election even more was that those three seasons were just the final of 15 seasons of merciless right wing attacking. With Donnie Johnny and the Great Right Wing Noise Machine out there lashing about at any and every Democrat (and a few Republicans and Republican Spokesnetworks), they're just contributing to the war weariness. Without a shoo-in candidate, they're left to railing about everyone and at a certain point, like the boy who cried wolf, that stops working.

IMHO, the public would vote for the 1936 Montgomery Ward catalogue rather than Trump. If the Dems didn't learn that from '16, then they learned nothing. Running AGAINST someone is so much easier than building your own policies and programs and selling those. All this talk about the Dems mobilizing the opposition if they nominate someone "too left" ignores that the GOP has fully mobilized the majority opposition of liberals, moderates and light conservatives by backing Trump's onerous administration, bombastic narrative and divisiveness. The turnout in '18 was nothing! Every Dem and many Republicans I know will happily have the same discussions we're having here....
>Oh, he's an old geezer and not inspiring.
>Oh, he's an old geezer but too far left.
>Oh, she's too easy a target because Trump's already onto how to push her buttons.
>Oh, she can't mobilize the support of Group X.

"So, you're voting Trump or staying home if they nominate whomever it is you're bitching about?"

>Hell, no! The Trump nightmare has to end.
__________________
Ha! Foolmewunz has just been added to the list of people who aren't complete idiots. Hokulele

It's not that liberals have become less tolerant. It's that conservatives have become more intolerable.
Foolmewunz is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 04:09 AM   #729
Distracted1
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 3,202
Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
I'm sticking with my original vision of the 2020 election. The Dems in a bit of disarray is a good thing. The laser-like focus on Hillary throughout 2014-15 was not a good thing. Yeah, the also-rans in the Democratic Party had a point... how dare they anoint her just because it's her turn?

But what hurt Hillary and the election even more was that those three seasons were just the final of 15 seasons of merciless right wing attacking. With Donnie Johnny and the Great Right Wing Noise Machine out there lashing about at any and every Democrat (and a few Republicans and Republican Spokesnetworks), they're just contributing to the war weariness. Without a shoo-in candidate, they're left to railing about everyone and at a certain point, like the boy who cried wolf, that stops working.

IMHO, the public would vote for the 1936 Montgomery Ward catalogue rather than Trump. If the Dems didn't learn that from '16, then they learned nothing. Running AGAINST someone is so much easier than building your own policies and programs and selling those. All this talk about the Dems mobilizing the opposition if they nominate someone "too left" ignores that the GOP has fully mobilized the majority opposition of liberals, moderates and light conservatives by backing Trump's onerous administration, bombastic narrative and divisiveness. The turnout in '18 was nothing! Every Dem and many Republicans I know will happily have the same discussions we're having here....
>Oh, he's an old geezer and not inspiring.
>Oh, he's an old geezer but too far left.
>Oh, she's too easy a target because Trump's already onto how to push her buttons.
>Oh, she can't mobilize the support of Group X.

"So, you're voting Trump or staying home if they nominate whomever it is you're bitching about?"

>Hell, no! The Trump nightmare has to end.
I agree, with a slightly different take.
The Dems are about as motivated as they are going to get already, simply because getting rid of the Trumpster is so appealing. We will line up to vote for a "ham sandwich" over Trump.

But, as we have seen, simply casting 3 million more votes than the other side is no guarantee of victory, the opposition in a few States needs to be comfortable remaining unmotivated. Many will be completely comfortable sitting it out -if the candidate we run doesn't "trigger" them.
__________________
The man with one watch knows what time it is, the man with two watches is never sure.
Distracted1 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 08:26 AM   #730
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,997
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Quote:
Some (even most) will do everything they can to stop the 'Evil Librul Democrats', others will actually be less energized, unless they can see an actual threat (such as Sanders taking away people's private insurance.) Granted we are only talking about a minority of Republicans, but when you have elections that are decided on only a few thousand votes in a couple of swing states, then even getting a few of the less eager republicans to sit out the 2020 election can make a difference.
You have to pay attention to voter enthusiasm/turnout on the democratic side, too, though.

A candidate that can further motivate a Republican to vote against the democratic candidate can also inspire an even greater degree of turnout from left-leaning voters to vote FOR a candidate. This is what we saw with the nazi-communist-Kenyan Candidate Obama.
Yes you do have to pay attention to motivation on the democrat's side. Pick a moderate candidate and you lose the interest in some far-left voters. But pick an extreme candidate and you lose the risk of losing some moderate voters who may lean democrat, but get worried about huge tax increases and losing their private health insurance. Either way, you lose someone's interest.

The difference is how much it ends up motivating the republicans... Bernie will motivate republicans to vote for Trump a lot more than Biden would.
Quote:
Quote:
After all, despite significant evidence that Trump was a racist, many african American voters who had supported Obama sat out the 2016 election. Sometimes motivation matters.
That's sort of my point. Obama won because he inspired even greater turnout on the left side of the ledger.
Yes, Obama got some far left voters. But you know what? He also got a lot of moderate voters. And he did so not by pushing Bernie-style "medicare for all", or by bringing in programs that would increase taxes on the middle class. He did not want to ban the death penalty. During his first presidential election he was in favor of Civil Unions for homosexual couples, but was against federally mandated 'marriage' laws. Obama was no 'left wing extremist'.... he was most definitely a democrat, but nowhere near the far left of the party.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 08:31 AM   #731
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,997
Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
You are right. That is probably why she got 3 million less votes. Sorry I questioned your thesis.
Yes, I get it... hillary won the popular vote.

Yet she still lost the election, and she did so against a person who was completely unsuitable for the office of president.

Now, would Hillary have won had she actually had policies closer to the political center? Honestly, I don't know... Statistically, people who are moderate have more success during general elections, but exceptions do occur, and presidential elections are relatively rare events.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 08:36 AM   #732
Cabbage
Suspended
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 1,697
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Yes you do have to pay attention to motivation on the democrat's side. Pick a moderate candidate and you lose the interest in some far-left voters. But pick an extreme candidate and you lose the risk of losing some moderate voters who may lean democrat, but get worried about huge tax increases and losing their private health insurance. Either way, you lose someone's interest.

The difference is how much it ends up motivating the republicans... Bernie will motivate republicans to vote for Trump a lot more than Biden would.
That's not the only difference. For example, I think there's a significant number of Trump voters who are sick of the "establishment" candidates and a big deciding factor is they want to go outside the establishment. Pick an establishment candidate like Biden and they'll stick with Trump. Pick someone who's at least perceived as outside the establishment like Sanders or Warren and some of these Trump voters just might switch over.
Cabbage is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 08:39 AM   #733
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 38,922
Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
That's not the only difference. For example, I think there's a significant number of Trump voters who are sick of the "establishment" candidates and a big deciding factor is they want to go outside the establishment. Pick an establishment candidate like Biden and they'll stick with Trump. Pick someone who's at least perceived as outside the establishment like Sanders or Warren and some of these Trump voters just might switch over.
This is a good insight. However, I don't think Warren is perceived by many as being outside the Democrat establishment.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 08:46 AM   #734
Cabbage
Suspended
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 1,697
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
This is a good insight. However, I don't think Warren is perceived by many as being outside the Democrat establishment.

I think she's perceived by many as not being in the pockets of corporations, which is a big part of being in or out of the establishment.
Cabbage is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 08:47 AM   #735
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,997
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
First of all, do you have any reason why it wouldn't be true today?
There are more independents now, for one thing, and you can look at the changes in how they lean:
https://www.people-press.org/2019/03...at-they-think/

There's been a huge growth in the "lean democrat" type. From 10% in 2002, to 17% in 2018. (A 64% increase).
First of all, as I mentioned before, at least one of the studies provided took place within the last 5 years (long after the 'huge growth' in independents started.)

I pointed that out before, yet you seem to have ignored the point. I wonder why that is.

Secondly, I don't really see any justification about why a "lean democrat" voter would be any more or less likely to vote for an extremist candidate. To me, it would seem like an extremist candidate would be more of a turn-off for them, since if they're only 'leaning democrat' then they might be amiable to the republicans, depending on the situation.

Quote:
The economics of "fiscal conservatism" has proven false since the housing crash. Stuff like that almost has to be behind this, I think:

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memo...d-favorability
Elizabeth Warren has the highest favorable rating of any Democrat in the battleground districts -- especially among Independents.

Independents in the battleground districts have a much more favorable opinion of Elizabeth Warren than Joe Biden.
Go back and read the references I provided.

The statistical advantage to moderate candidates only applies in a general election. During the primaries the same rules do not apply. (The dynamics involved in the way the vote gets split between candidates and between parties, the importance of name recognition, and the greater influence of special interest groups complicates things.)

In other words, looking at how Warren is looked at in a small number of states early in an election cycle doesn't really tell you much.

And I don't quite get your crack about 'fiscal conservatism'. Biden might be more moderate than (for example) Sanders, but he still wants increased taxes on the wealthy and more infrastructure spending. The fact that he doesn't want to break up the banks and increase middle class taxes to pay for every possible social program doesn't mean he's a 'fiscal conservative'.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 08:48 AM   #736
TragicMonkey
Poisoned Waffles
 
TragicMonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Monkey
Posts: 51,827
Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
I think she's perceived by many as not being in the pockets of corporations, which is a big part of being in or out of the establishment.
Specifically the banks. The banks loved the Clintons and Biden. They don't like Warren.
__________________
You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.
TragicMonkey is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 08:54 AM   #737
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 13,997
Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
That's not the only difference. For example, I think there's a significant number of Trump voters who are sick of the "establishment" candidates and a big deciding factor is they want to go outside the establishment. Pick an establishment candidate like Biden and they'll stick with Trump. Pick someone who's at least perceived as outside the establishment like Sanders or Warren and some of these Trump voters just might switch over.
Maybe. Or maybe people have realized that picking "outside the establishment" wasn't a smart choice in the first place and wanted someone a bit more experienced and mainstream. (I don't know if that will happen, any more than you can know that a Sanders selection would bring in new voters who wanted someone "outside the establishment".)

And how exactly is Warren considered 'outside the establishment'? She's been a Democratic senator for years.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 09:08 AM   #738
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12,255
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
First of all, as I mentioned before, at least one of the studies provided took place within the last 5 years (long after the 'huge growth' in independents started.)

I pointed that out before, yet you seem to have ignored the point. I wonder why that is.
Because that 2015 paper was looking at what happened between 1980 (forty years ago!) and 2010.

Nothing in there was about what was happening in 2015.

I thought you'd have noticed that.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 09:12 AM   #739
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12,255
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
.
Secondly, I don't really see any justification about why a "lean democrat" voter would be any more or less likely to vote for an extremist candidate. To me, it would seem like an extremist candidate would be more of a turn-off for them,
Why do you think independents in those battleground states hate Biden so much compared to Warren?
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 03:59 PM   #740
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
 
Brainster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 17,019
In the CNN Townhall on the Climate Crisis, Andrew Yang mentioned one of his "out of the box" solutions: Space Mirrors to reflect the sun's rays back:

Quote:
Directly capturing carbon dioxide and planting trees are not very controversial in climate policy circles; the issue, with the former especially, is cost, not wisdom. “Space mirrors,” suffice it to say, are much more controversial, not least because they’re basically impossible to test. So too with aerosol scattering and ocean seeding (Kelsey Piper wrote a piece about one such attempt at the latter).
In fairness, Yang apparently only proposes that as a last-ditch measure, and he's apparently not anti-nuke (although no surprise he's more interested in the newer, unproven nuclear technologies), which puts him ahead of at least part of the Democratic field.
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads.
1960s Comic Book Nostalgia
Visit the Screw Loose Change blog.
Brainster is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 04:03 PM   #741
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12,255
In the debates he only advocated running for higher ground, because he said it's too late.

eta:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/andrew...-higher-ground
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.

Last edited by kellyb; 4th September 2019 at 04:05 PM.
kellyb is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 04:54 PM   #742
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 45,901
Williamoson deleted tweet a bout how power of the mind can turn a hurricane away is not going over well. Might well hasten her political demise..which can't happen soon enough for me.
We have enough religious wackjobs in the GOP:we don't need them in the Democratic Party.
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 05:10 PM   #743
Trebuchet
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trebuchet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: The Great Northwet
Posts: 23,255
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Williamoson deleted tweet a bout how power of the mind can turn a hurricane away is not going over well. Might well hasten her political demise..which can't happen soon enough for me.
We have enough religious wackjobs in the GOP:we don't need them in the Democratic Party.
There are plenty of others, of course.

And all of the Democrat Party candidates are evil Socialists. Heck, the Dems could nominate a ticket of Stephen Miller and Steve Bannon and they'd be declared socialists.
__________________
Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.
Trebuchet is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 05:50 PM   #744
Delphic Oracle
Illuminator
 
Delphic Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,616
CNN only let me watch a short bit before asking me for a subscription login. I caught an outtro, commercial gap, and about 7-8 minutes of Sanders sounding about as tired of repeating himself as I am of hearing him (just being honest).
Delphic Oracle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 06:14 PM   #745
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 76,456
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Yes, I get it... hillary won the popular vote.

Yet she still lost the election, and she did so against a person who was completely unsuitable for the office of president.

Now, would Hillary have won had she actually had policies closer to the political center? Honestly, I don't know... Statistically, people who are moderate have more success during general elections, but exceptions do occur, and presidential elections are relatively rare events.
Her policies were not the problem.

It was a massive demonizing campaign against her, Comey's stupid decisions, Cambridge Analytica's data mining expertise put to use micro-targeting including propaganda aimed at encouraging Obama supporters not to vote, all topped off with Clinton's team's lack of skill modernizing their campaign tactics.

And to keep this on-topic, the point is, focusing only on policies and not on all the other issues of campaigning, including with the social media aspect of modern elections is a losing formula.

Remember when Kennedy out-performed Nixon in the TV debates because he refused make-up and he was sweating while Kennedy looked cool, calm, and collected?

Nixon learned from that and the next time he ran there was "The Selling of the President".

When are the stupid Democrats going to learn and modernize their campaigns?

More than a few people told me, Obama moved the ball. Sure, he effectively used the internet to raise money. That was the extent of it. His popularity did result in social media users spreading the word, but it wasn't a concerted campaign effort from the top.

Clinton failed miserably to notice that she was being attacked by trolls and bots. They didn't need the FBI to tell them that, they should have noticed it was happening. They could have hired data analyzers to map out the activity. There were (and are) plenty of them around.

So much for Obama moving the ball, Clinton got sacked. And they used a seriously outdated campaign tactic of ignoring attacks on the premise said attacks got more attention if you tried to address them. That is no longer the right tactic.

And raising money via email, OMG, I'm bombarded with so many requests for money, all using terrible techniques like constant push polls, I bet it's a lot less effective than if they stopped badgering. Bernie is still doing well because his fundraising involves social media, not just emails. Steyer's money raising is doing well because he started with the impeachment focus and TV ads.

Most of the Democratic candidates are still floundering, akin to Nixon sweating in front of the TV cameras.
__________________
That new avatar is cuteness overload.
Restore checks and balances no matter your party affiliation.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 4th September 2019 at 06:16 PM.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 06:19 PM   #746
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
 
Brainster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 17,019
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
In the debates he only advocated running for higher ground, because he said it's too late.

eta:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/andrew...-higher-ground
If you accept the worst-case scenarios he's probably right. The average elevation in Florida is 6 feet which means there are lots of lower-lying areas. It does make sense to be looking at ameliorating the symptoms even as you try to cure the disease.
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads.
1960s Comic Book Nostalgia
Visit the Screw Loose Change blog.
Brainster is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 06:23 PM   #747
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 76,456
Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
That's not the only difference. For example, I think there's a significant number of Trump voters who are sick of the "establishment" candidates and a big deciding factor is they want to go outside the establishment. Pick an establishment candidate like Biden and they'll stick with Trump. Pick someone who's at least perceived as outside the establishment like Sanders or Warren and some of these Trump voters just might switch over.
That was the theme in 2016. The Democrats ought to easily campaign on "look what you got, a nut job".

But Biden is absolutely (IMO of course) the wrong person to sell that message. He'll be seen by a lot of people as the reason Trump won and I don't think people want to go back. They want to go forward. They just need a good salesperson working on that message.
__________________
That new avatar is cuteness overload.
Restore checks and balances no matter your party affiliation.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 06:44 PM   #748
Delphic Oracle
Illuminator
 
Delphic Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,616
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Her policies were not the problem.

<snip>
No question on the media strategy in all its various forms.

Including insidious ones cooked up by Putin.

But the basic question of why things kept tightening up repeatedly* (with the "amplitude" of difference between them getting smaller each time) still isn't answered by all of these strategic considerations.

Here's the problem:

What was her message?



*If you look at the national polling and allow in your mind an even 2-3% skew in the surgically-targeted districts we know of, it looks like a a very competitive race down the last 3-4 months.

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 4th September 2019 at 06:47 PM.
Delphic Oracle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 07:24 PM   #749
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 76,456
Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
No question on the media strategy in all its various forms.

Including insidious ones cooked up by Putin.

But the basic question of why things kept tightening up repeatedly* (with the "amplitude" of difference between them getting smaller each time) still isn't answered by all of these strategic considerations.

Here's the problem:

What was her message?

*If you look at the national polling and allow in your mind an even 2-3% skew in the surgically-targeted districts we know of, it looks like a a very competitive race down the last 3-4 months.
The highlighted is very much part of the failed marketing I am talking about.
__________________
That new avatar is cuteness overload.
Restore checks and balances no matter your party affiliation.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 4th September 2019 at 08:42 PM.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 08:44 PM   #750
Minoosh
Penultimate Amazing
 
Minoosh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 10,013
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
The highlighted is very much the failed marketing I am talking about.
I haven't been keeping up but I can think of what might be an effective strategy but would probably be seen as risky. And that is rebranding what some people seem to consider "far left," thanks to very consistent messaging by the Republican Party.

Universal health care is not far left.
Safeguarding our elections is not far left.
Standing with allies is not far left.
Standing up to dictators is not far left.
Affordable education is not far left.
A non-political Supreme Court is not far left.
Background checks are not far left.

The above issues largely have to do with branding themselves as centrists. Some people will say that is the exact opposite of what they should be doing.

When Democratic candidates talk about free college, are they also talking about free tuition at trade schools? IMO they need to frame issues in ways that appeal to conservative values. Because Democrats are actually more conservative than the Republicans are at the moment. Blowing up trade relationships is not conservative. Neither IMO is outlawing abortion at this point.
Minoosh is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th September 2019, 10:33 PM   #751
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 5,536
Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Secondly, I don't really see any justification about why a "lean democrat" voter would be any more or less likely to vote for an extremist candidate. To me, it would seem like an extremist candidate would be more of a turn-off for them, since if they're only 'leaning democrat' then they might be amiable to the republicans, depending on the situation.
Lean Democrat just means that they're independents that are much more aligned with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, not that they're in some "center" or "is reasonably likely to go either way" position. Thus, your reasoning here is a bit wrong-headed. You may as well try to make a point out of the fact that if someone is only a registered Democrat, not one of the core campaigners, then they might be amiable to the Republicans, depending on the situation. It'd be just as true and just as meaningless.

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Specifically the banks. The banks loved the Clintons and Biden. They don't like Warren.
Its not just the banks, for that matter. Companies that effectively hold monopolies don't want her.

In other news...


Tracking disinformation: How RWNJs tried to smear Beto O'Rourke during Odessa shooting


For if one wants a peek at a bit of the current GOP disinformation machine.
__________________
So sayeth the crazy little dragon.
Aridas is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2019, 02:48 AM   #752
SezMe
post-pre-born
 
SezMe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 23,333
Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
I haven't been keeping up but I can think of what might be an effective strategy but would probably be seen as risky. And that is rebranding what some people seem to consider "far left," thanks to very consistent messaging by the Republican Party.

Universal health care is not far left.
Safeguarding our elections is not far left.
Standing with allies is not far left.
Standing up to dictators is not far left.
Affordable education is not far left.
A non-political Supreme Court is not far left.
Background checks are not far left.
<snip>
Good point. No matter who the Dems pick, we know they will be yelling SOCIALISM all day long. They need to counter that with specific examples that are know to have high approval ratings yet that are anathema to the GOP.
SezMe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2019, 03:43 AM   #753
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 5,536
Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
From that link it is not clear to me what "go after" really means. Supposing they do find something, I dunno, dirty(?), about some reporter, so what. Will the very media they are targeting print the dirt. I doubt it.

The whole thing sounds like, "Way, way, some in the media don't like us." It's just another effort to pry money out of the fat cats to enrich the "campaign consultant" class.
Really short version? They're overtly looking for potential blackmail and material they think they can use to discredit opponents. Would the very media they're targeting print the dirt? Yes. Maybe not that particular news outlet, but Fox? Breitbart? They'd do it with glee, before getting to social media and the right-wing disinformation machine.
__________________
So sayeth the crazy little dragon.
Aridas is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2019, 06:20 AM   #754
varwoche
Penultimate Amazing
 
varwoche's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Puget Sound
Posts: 13,468
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Williamoson deleted tweet a bout how power of the mind can turn a hurricane away is not going over well. Might well hasten her political demise..which can't happen soon enough for me.
We have enough religious wackjobs in the GOP:we don't need them in the Democratic Party.
It may have been difficult to explain how the power of love caused the Bahamas to be scraped off the earth.
__________________
To survive election season on a skeptics forum, one must understand Hymie-the-Robot.
varwoche is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2019, 06:26 AM   #755
TragicMonkey
Poisoned Waffles
 
TragicMonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Monkey
Posts: 51,827
Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
It may have been difficult to explain how the power of love caused the Bahamas to be scraped off the earth.
The power of love is a curious thing, make one man weep, make another man sing.
__________________
You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.
TragicMonkey is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2019, 07:44 AM   #756
Cabbage
Suspended
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 1,697
Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
From that link it is not clear to me what "go after" really means. Supposing they do find something, I dunno, dirty(?), about some reporter, so what. Will the very media they are targeting print the dirt. I doubt it.

The whole thing sounds like, "Way, way, some in the media don't like us." It's just another effort to pry money out of the fat cats to enrich the "campaign consultant" class.
I'm pretty sure the right wing media machine will print it. And that's a pretty significant machine.
Cabbage is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2019, 07:46 AM   #757
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 86,023
Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
I'm pretty sure the right wing media machine will print it. And that's a pretty significant machine.
It's more machine now than man. Twisted and evil.
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward


Belz... is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2019, 09:34 AM   #758
TragicMonkey
Poisoned Waffles
 
TragicMonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Monkey
Posts: 51,827
Can the discussion move back to the topic rather than a discussion of what was discussed? These sidebar wranglings are deadening to participation. And probably brain cells.
__________________
You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.
TragicMonkey is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2019, 09:39 AM   #759
Dr. Keith
Not a doctor.
 
Dr. Keith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Texas
Posts: 19,314
Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Can the discussion move back to the topic rather than a discussion of what was discussed? These sidebar wranglings are deadening to participation. And probably brain cells.
Wait, this isn't the hard flouncing thread?
__________________
Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God.
He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa

If I had a pet panda I would name it Snowflake.
Dr. Keith is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th September 2019, 09:40 AM   #760
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12,255
Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Can the discussion move back to the topic rather than a discussion of what was discussed? These sidebar wranglings are deadening to participation. And probably brain cells.
GOOD IDEA.

MOVING ON!
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 03:34 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.