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Tags Coronavirus , vaccination , vaccines

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Old 12th January 2022, 07:34 AM   #1161
Dr.Sid
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In Czech Republic the omicron is just starting, but we have some interesting realtime data.

https://www-covdata-cz.translate.goo...en&_x_tr_hl=cs

Namely second graph shows sharp change in reinfection ratio in new cases. It was sitting at about 2% during delta. But in last two weeks it increased to 10%, and as I said, we're just starting.
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Old 12th January 2022, 10:55 AM   #1162
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Has omicron got any foothold in NZ yet?
Not yet, no, and as I noted, I don't expect the weather to affect it all - look at Aussie.

Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Well I think its safe to say the UK is definitely past the peak. New cases have dropped by 45% in the last 7 days.
As headlines scream about deaths hitting 400 a day.

Pity they don't put that fact into some perspective.

Official infections are four times higher than previous peaks, while deaths are 1/4 of previous peaks. Given the vast undercount of cases, the difference is even greater than that 1/16 ratio the official numbers imply.

Also, with UK having ~1800 deaths every day of every year and 10% of people with Covid, you can bet 180 deaths a day will test positive regardless of whether it's what killed them.

The media pumping of omicron is absurd and dangerous.
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Old 12th January 2022, 04:56 PM   #1163
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Not yet, no, and as I noted, I don't expect the weather to affect it all - look at Aussie.



As headlines scream about deaths hitting 400 a day.

Pity they don't put that fact into some perspective.

Official infections are four times higher than previous peaks, while deaths are 1/4 of previous peaks. Given the vast undercount of cases, the difference is even greater than that 1/16 ratio the official numbers imply.

Also, with UK having ~1800 deaths every day of every year and 10% of people with Covid, you can bet 180 deaths a day will test positive regardless of whether it's what killed them.

The media pumping of omicron is absurd and dangerous.

This is too vague to be of any value.

"The media" is not a monolithic entity, and you are not explaining what is absurd and dangerous.
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Old 12th January 2022, 05:24 PM   #1164
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Here's an example of the "media" saying that the spread of Omicron should be sped up...

Link

Some virologists and doctors, such as Angela Ramussen and Eric Topol, are saying this is a really irresponsible thing for the Wall Street Journal to be putting out. But then again, there are plenty of segments of "the media" who have been pushing the Great Barrington Declaration line of just letting the virus rip.

So when people claim "the media says..." they are nearly always referring to media that they disagree with while getting their information from other sources of the media.

Who is the writer of this piece anyway?

Quote:
Vivek Ramaswamy (born August 9, 1985) is an entrepreneur in the healthcare and technology sectors, a political commentator, and a New York Times bestselling author. He is the founder and executive chairman of the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences. He is the author of Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America's Social Justice Scam, which was published in August 2021.[1]

Prior to founding Roivant in 2014, Ramaswamy co-founded a technology company and was a partner at an investment firm. He is writing and speaking against stakeholder capitalism, big tech censorship, and critical race theory more recently.
JFC!

While there are plenty of right-wing conspiracy theories about how "Big Pharma" is trying to encourage people to get vaccinated, it is interesting to me how people pushing "therapeutics" get a pass when they are actually pushing medication used for people who actually get sick.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 12th January 2022, 06:14 PM   #1165
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Here's an example of the "media" saying that the spread of Omicron should be sped up...

Link
I read his piece in the WSJ yesterday. Struck by two things (apart from his background).

Assume for discussion the debatable hypothesis is correct. That it's better to expose the most people, including the large, vaccinated population to Omicron with the presumed benefit that it will reduce antigenic drift and decrease the probability of a more severe variant presumably coming from the vaccinated.

1. Speed up Omicron? Really? Why? It's going to get most people that aren't vaxxed and lots of those that are. The incredible infectiousness is putting strains on the hospital system and lots of other services where people can't totally isolate. Spreading it out a couple months with NPIs at least helps the surge a bit without changing the calculus.

2. To date the variants somewhat worse than the original, Alpha and Delta, emerged from the Covid-19 infected prior to vaccinations.

The piece isn't really thought out.
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Old 12th January 2022, 06:21 PM   #1166
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I read his piece in the WSJ yesterday. Struck by two things (apart from his background).

Assume for discussion the debatable hypothesis is correct. That it's better to expose the most people, including the large, vaccinated population to Omicron with the presumed benefit that it will reduce antigenic drift and decrease the probability of a more severe variant presumably coming from the vaccinated.

1. Speed up Omicron? Really? Why? It's going to get most people that aren't vaxxed and lots of those that are. The incredible infectiousness is putting strains on the hospital system and lots of other services where people can't totally isolate. Spreading it out a couple months with NPIs at least helps the surge a bit without changing the calculus.

2. To date the variants somewhat worse than the original, Alpha and Delta, emerged from the Covid-19 infected prior to vaccinations.

The piece isn't really thought out.
It seems to be a grab bag of bad takes about the virus: it panders to the natural immunity people, the Geert van Der Bosche ideas about vaccine escape, Great Barrington Declaration ideas about letting the virus spread etc… and even throws in some lab leakers for good measure. Honestly it is like reading someone’s ideas after they have been filtered through hours of listening to Joe Rogan and the Dark Horse podcast.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 12th January 2022, 06:33 PM   #1167
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Angela Rasmussen has a Twitter thread responding to the op-Ed:

Quote:
This article is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read and for the WSJ Opinion Page, that’s some rarefied ******** air to breathe.
Link
Attached Images
File Type: jpg 715BA50F-5D59-4E31-8E5D-5E40E2875309.jpg (88.9 KB, 8 views)
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 12th January 2022, 06:56 PM   #1168
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
It seems to be a grab bag of bad takes about the virus: it panders to the natural immunity people, the Geert van Der Bosche ideas about vaccine escape, Great Barrington Declaration ideas about letting the virus spread etc… and even throws in some lab leakers for good measure. Honestly it is like reading someone’s ideas after they have been filtered through hours of listening to Joe Rogan and the Dark Horse podcast.
Yup. I think you nailed it.
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Old 12th January 2022, 08:22 PM   #1169
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Eric Topol on hospitalizations

On twitter Eric Topol wrote, "A reminder
3-shot effectiveness ~90% vs Omicron hospitalizations
2-shot effectiveness is only 50% vs Omicron hospitalizations"
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Old 13th January 2022, 01:42 AM   #1170
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Well I think its safe to say the UK is definitely past the peak. New cases have dropped by 45% in the last 7 days.

Tuesday 4th Jan: 218,724 new cases, highest ever
Tuesday 11th Jan: 120,821 cases, a drop of 98,000 from the week before.

Following exactly the trajectory of South Africa, up quickly and down quickly. Or to be more accurate, up quickly and down even more quickly.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
(Source https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk)
The number of PCR tests had dropped by a comparable amount.

The Kings' College Zoe study which uses PCR and lateral flow test results reported via their app calculates that the number of cases has stopped rising precipitously and is steady at around 200,000 with close to 3 million people being infected in the UK.
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Old 13th January 2022, 02:11 AM   #1171
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The number of PCR tests had dropped by a comparable amount.

The Kings' College Zoe study which uses PCR and lateral flow test results reported via their app calculates that the number of cases has stopped rising precipitously and is steady at around 200,000 with close to 3 million people being infected in the UK.
ourworldindata also shows continuing increase in test positivity rate in UK. I'd say the steep rise in cases is over, but so far the sharp decline is artificial.

Meanwhile:
- France blows every record in cases
- Israel shows promise in middle field and is gaining positions
- Japan curve shows visible rise when showed together with the big boys

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...RT~HUN~BGR~ROU

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Old 13th January 2022, 02:18 AM   #1172
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The number of PCR tests had dropped by a comparable amount.

The Kings' College Zoe study which uses PCR and lateral flow test results reported via their app calculates that the number of cases has stopped rising precipitously and is steady at around 200,000 with close to 3 million people being infected in the UK.
Not steady, it’s been falling though not as fast as the official figures. 184,000 currently.
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Old 13th January 2022, 02:57 AM   #1173
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
"The media" is not a monolithic entity....
No, it's more of a duopoly.

The right-leaning media promotes antivax agendas while the left sits in its corner with a string of worry beads.
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Old 13th January 2022, 04:18 AM   #1174
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
No, it's more of a duopoly.

The right-leaning media promotes antivax agendas while the left sits in its corner with a string of worry beads.
The left? Where? Here in the US, the dominating sets of national medias are right-wing and corporate. Corporate media doesn't really equal left leaning, even if they are much friendlier to the left than the rabid hatred that tends to come from the right-wing media.
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Old 13th January 2022, 05:09 AM   #1175
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Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
On twitter Eric Topol wrote, "A reminder
3-shot effectiveness ~90% vs Omicron hospitalizations
2-shot effectiveness is only 50% vs Omicron hospitalizations"
In Japan, hardly anybody has been able to get a 3rd shot yet. My mother-in-law, who is in her 90s and was vaccinated back in May, won't be able to get her booster until February.
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Old 13th January 2022, 07:07 AM   #1176
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The number of PCR tests had dropped by a comparable amount.

The Kings' College Zoe study which uses PCR and lateral flow test results reported via their app calculates that the number of cases has stopped rising precipitously and is steady at around 200,000 with close to 3 million people being infected in the UK.
Yep, Zoe looks to even be coming down now.

Also worth noting that hospitalisations looks to have peaked or be peaking, and more importantly the ICU numbers, which are now definitely declining over the last week. Neither of those are dependent on tests. Although the ICU decline could be due to the increased prevalence of Omicron and its lesser lung effects compared to Delta.
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Old 13th January 2022, 10:42 AM   #1177
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
The left? Where? Here in the US...
I try hard to avoid American news and news sites. Commonwealth countries, where the left media is always easy to spot - they're the sites that plead for donations on every page. They have a vested interest in disaster porn.

Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Yep, Zoe looks to even be coming down now.

Also worth noting that hospitalisations looks to have peaked or be peaking, and more importantly the ICU numbers, which are now definitely declining over the last week. Neither of those are dependent on tests. Although the ICU decline could be due to the increased prevalence of Omicron and its lesser lung effects compared to Delta.
That's exactly what South Africa showed, and people were rightly skeptical of, but it looks like they were right all along. Very fast burst of infections, followed by an equally-sharp fall, and very few deaths.
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Old 13th January 2022, 12:43 PM   #1178
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Time to spark up!

https://fortune.com/2022/01/12/canna...lls-lab-study/
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Old 13th January 2022, 12:58 PM   #1179
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The Atheist: “ I try hard to avoid American news and news sites. ”

Also, the Atheist:

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
You should try harder!

Smoking weed to stop Covid makes HCQ/IVM proponents look relatively serious.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 13th January 2022, 06:08 PM   #1180
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
The Atheist: “ I try hard to avoid American news and news sites. ”
Except Fark. Like the people there, I find that pretty funny.
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Old 13th January 2022, 09:00 PM   #1181
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There's already a conspiracy theory about this:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dariosa...h=4a9da10b6072

Look at the dates on the two stories. Coincidence?
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Old 14th January 2022, 01:37 AM   #1182
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A little question for those better versed in virology than me:

a recent study found that SARS COV 19 becomes inert after 5min outside the body.

Do we know why virus particles are so unstable when exposed to air?

Just curious.
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Old 14th January 2022, 02:21 AM   #1183
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
A little question for those better versed in virology than me:

a recent study found that SARS COV 19 becomes inert after 5min outside the body.

Do we know why virus particles are so unstable when exposed to air?

Just curious.
Coronaviruses are contained in a lipid envelope, which breaks down very quickly when it's not kept moist.

I think the study is a little misleading, though. They're only looking at airborne particles, which are very small and dry out almost immediately. If you spit up a gob of phlegm, the viruses in it will live for an extended period after it lands.
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Old 14th January 2022, 02:23 AM   #1184
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
There's already a conspiracy theory about this:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dariosa...h=4a9da10b6072

Look at the dates on the two stories. Coincidence?
Haha! Good spot.
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Old 14th January 2022, 03:00 AM   #1185
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Coronaviruses are contained in a lipid envelope, which breaks down very quickly when it's not kept moist.

I think the study is a little misleading, though. They're only looking at airborne particles, which are very small and dry out almost immediately. If you spit up a gob of phlegm, the viruses in it will live for an extended period after it lands.
Thanks!
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Old 14th January 2022, 04:03 AM   #1186
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Coronaviruses are contained in a lipid envelope, which breaks down very quickly when it's not kept moist.

I think the study is a little misleading, though. They're only looking at airborne particles, which are very small and dry out almost immediately. If you spit up a gob of phlegm, the viruses in it will live for an extended period after it lands.
Someone was trying argue with me that masks don’t work because the coronavirus is smaller than the holes in the mask. I tried to explain that actually although the virus itself is indeed smaller, if you are picturing these little viruses floating around in the air independently of each other, just naked, that isn’t how it actually works in the real world. If they were exposed like that they would soon die, and what remains would be rendered inert and harmless. They need to be protected from direct contact with the air and UV light by little droplets of spittle, phlegm or the like to protect them. And those droplets are bigger than the holes in the masks.
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Old 14th January 2022, 06:06 AM   #1187
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Yep, Zoe looks to even be coming down now.

Also worth noting that hospitalisations looks to have peaked or be peaking, and more importantly the ICU numbers, which are now definitely declining over the last week. Neither of those are dependent on tests. Although the ICU decline could be due to the increased prevalence of Omicron and its lesser lung effects compared to Delta.
Locally the rate as reported by Zoe is 50% higher than the pre Christmas peak and climbing.

Hospitalisations are rising and deaths are climbing quickly.

We're not out of the woods yet and as Omicron makes inroads into older, more vulnerable age groups things could get worse. The WHO has warned against the idea that Omicron is relatively benign.
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Old 14th January 2022, 06:09 AM   #1188
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Coronaviruses are contained in a lipid envelope, which breaks down very quickly when it's not kept moist.

I think the study is a little misleading, though. They're only looking at airborne particles, which are very small and dry out almost immediately. If you spit up a gob of phlegm, the viruses in it will live for an extended period after it lands.
Also, the spike protein which binds to the cell receptor ACE-2, is exposed on the surface and will denature quickly in air.
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Old 14th January 2022, 11:49 AM   #1189
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Coronaviruses are contained in a lipid envelope, which breaks down very quickly when it's not kept moist.

I think the study is a little misleading, though. They're only looking at airborne particles, which are very small and dry out almost immediately. If you spit up a gob of phlegm, the viruses in it will live for an extended period after it lands.
My take is that people are misinterpreting the study. It's no surprise that 90% of the virons become inactive upon the 5-10um droplets drying. The outer ones die but the evaporated organics protect the inner ones. And the article also states that after that the decrease in viable virons slows which is consistent. And there are studies showing these have a half life of an hour or so after that. Since speaking, and especially loud speaking produces orders of magnitude more small droplets, the study is consistent with aerosol spread. Especially in groups of people heavily socializing like weddings, parties, etc., where large aerosol spread has been demonstrated.
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Old 15th January 2022, 12:40 PM   #1190
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Why Covid-19 will never become endemic

Excellent article by Research Fellow and Professor of Global Biosecurity Raina MacIntyre:

Quote:
For most of the pandemic Australia has worked to contain the virus through evidence-based public health measures such as border closures, case finding, contact tracing, quarantine, social distancing, vaccines and, at times, lockdown. Sadly, the weaponisation of lockdown as a pointscoring issue and emotional trigger has led to a conflation of lockdown with all other public health measures, most of which do not impinge on freedoms. Denial is a major theme during the pandemic. Denial of airborne transmission, denial of science, denial of Omicron being serious and denial about what it really means to “live with Covid-19”.
(...)
Denial of the reality of “living with Covid-19” has seen us rush headlong into letting it rip in a largely unboosted population, with kids aged five to 11 unvaccinated, without any planning for increased testing, tracing or even procurement of promising new drugs to face the numbers that will come. The booster program has not been expedited, with on Friday less than 17 per cent of the population aged 18 and over having had a third dose, and two doses barely protective against symptomatic infection with Omicron. So Omicron has caused business and hospitality to suffer mass cancellations. Mass absenteeism has crippled supply chains, affecting food, diesel, postal services and almost every other industry.
Why Covid-19 will never become endemic (The Saturday Paper, Jan 15, 2022)
Her numbers refer to the current pandemic situation in Australia.
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Last edited by dann; 15th January 2022 at 12:46 PM.
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Old 15th January 2022, 02:07 PM   #1191
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Locally the rate as reported by Zoe is 50% higher than the pre Christmas peak and climbing.

Hospitalisations are rising and deaths are climbing quickly.

We're not out of the woods yet and as Omicron makes inroads into older, more vulnerable age groups things could get worse. The WHO has warned against the idea that Omicron is relatively benign.
Sorry, what do you mean? The Zoe graph clearly shows the UK as a whole peaked 5 days ago and is now coming down.
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Old 15th January 2022, 02:39 PM   #1192
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Excellent article by Research Fellow and Professor of Global Biosecurity Raina MacIntyre:



Her numbers refer to the current pandemic situation in Australia.

Fairly accurate.

Some scientists are saying Australian covid hospitalisations are about to plateau, so that should mean cases will decline soon.
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Old 15th January 2022, 03:07 PM   #1193
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Excellent article by Research Fellow and Professor of Global Biosecurity Raina MacIntyre:



Her numbers refer to the current pandemic situation in Australia.
A few points. Epidemiologists have been wrong more often than right over the course of covid. Secondly, political decisions are made by politicians. Australia has had enough of lockdown and is prepared for the current rate of infections, which seem to have peaked. Thirdly a lot of experts, many quoted in this thread, do believe that covid will become endemic.
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Old 15th January 2022, 03:35 PM   #1194
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
A few points. Epidemiologists have been wrong more often than right over the course of covid. Secondly, political decisions are made by politicians. Australia has had enough of lockdown and is prepared for the current rate of infections, which seem to have peaked. Thirdly a lot of experts, many quoted in this thread, do believe that covid will become endemic.
That’s a bit of a broad statement. There have been disagreements among epidemiologists about how to approach Covid and of course we can cherry-pick mishaps and mistakes made by some of them and assume the entire field has been in error. But tell me, what would have happened if they were correct about everything?
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Old 15th January 2022, 03:44 PM   #1195
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Update on the Hong Kong vaccinated to vaccinated Omicron spread in a quarantine hotel. Pretty much nails it as a spread between the two via aerosol.

https://www.thelancet.com/action/sho...2821%2900269-8
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Old 15th January 2022, 06:30 PM   #1196
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The countdown to omicron break-out in NZ has started, with a quarantine worker testing positive after having had a fairly wide spread of contacts.

Given the number of people with cold symptoms around right now I'm not convinced it's not already on the loose.

Coupla days.
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Old 15th January 2022, 06:51 PM   #1197
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The countdown to omicron break-out in NZ has started, with a quarantine worker testing positive after having had a fairly wide spread of contacts.

Given the number of people with cold symptoms around right now I'm not convinced it's not already on the loose.

Coupla days.
Is your Health Department sequencing samples of the virus to get a picture of what variants are out there? I saw figures in Australia that showed about 75% is omicron which shows that a good proportion of Delta is still hanging around.
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Old 15th January 2022, 07:20 PM   #1198
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Japan is up to 81,748 active cases as of 1/14, up from 3,048 on 1/1. (26.8x)

Japan keeps track of "critically ill" numbers, which I assume corresponds to ICU patients in other countries. Those have risen, but not as fast as the case numbers. From 53 on 1/1 to 233 on 1/14. (4.4x) There have been 32 deaths in the 14 day period, but 11 of those were recorded on 1/14. Of the current active cases, 0.28% are classified as "critically ill".

Comparing this with Japan's 5th wave (Delta), on 8/2 there were 79,573 active cases and 754 in the "critically ill" category, or about 0.95% of the active cases. 123 deaths were recorded in the 14-day period prior to 8/2.

Obviously this is only a back-of the envelope calculation, but what we are currently seeing in these statistics is that Omicron is, so far at least, causing roughly 1/3 as many serious illnesses and deaths per case as Delta did last summer. On the other hand, it is spreading at a much faster rate than Delta did, and we are still on the upslope side of this wave.

Source for my numbers:
https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html
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Old 15th January 2022, 07:39 PM   #1199
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Meanwhile a sub-variant of Omicron BA.2 is out competing the original Omicron. Whether it's because of more immune escape from vaccines/prior infection or just more transmissible isn't known. Virulence isn't yet known.

The problem with BA.2 is that it doesn't have the "S" gene dropout that is widely used to distinguish Omicron from Delta so it may be underreported or reported as Delta when it isn't.

https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/statu...97809403588608
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Old 16th January 2022, 01:26 AM   #1200
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Is your Health Department sequencing samples of the virus to get a picture of what variants are out there? I saw figures in Australia that showed about 75% is omicron which shows that a good proportion of Delta is still hanging around.
All cases are sequenced.
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