I was reading KingMerv00's thread on whether men are more violent than women and I came across this. I do not wish to derail that thread but I cannot let this pass without comment.
The attrition rate in rape cases is shockingly high and there is no evidence I have seen which supports the assertion that there are high numbers of false accusations, despite this being trotted out so often in this kind of debate. The figure of 50% is at odds with all the evidence even of the views of police officers around the world (who are known to be part of the problem of attrition for various reasons now being addressed in many forces)
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journal...v/1997/29.html
http://www.justice.govt.nz/bill-of-r...ence-bill.html
http://wwwcj.mnstate.edu/classes/CJ4.../Proclaw1.html
http://www.bris.ac.uk/sps/downloads/...s/sps07_nw.pdf
http://www.bris.ac.uk/sps/downloads/...s/sps07_nw.pdf
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=225512005
http://www.cer.truthaboutrape.co.uk/4.html
http://www.journalonline.co.uk/article/1000084.aspx
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/hors293.pdf
gumboot said:Another factor that can't be ignored in statistics is "over reporting". New Zealand police estimate that well over half of all sexual assault/rape complaints made by women are false,
The attrition rate in rape cases is shockingly high and there is no evidence I have seen which supports the assertion that there are high numbers of false accusations, despite this being trotted out so often in this kind of debate. The figure of 50% is at odds with all the evidence even of the views of police officers around the world (who are known to be part of the problem of attrition for various reasons now being addressed in many forces)
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journal...v/1997/29.html
http://www.justice.govt.nz/bill-of-r...ence-bill.html
http://wwwcj.mnstate.edu/classes/CJ4.../Proclaw1.html
http://www.bris.ac.uk/sps/downloads/...s/sps07_nw.pdf
http://www.bris.ac.uk/sps/downloads/...s/sps07_nw.pdf
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=225512005
http://www.cer.truthaboutrape.co.uk/4.html
http://www.journalonline.co.uk/article/1000084.aspx
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/hors293.pdf
The ‘cultural conceptions’ of rape referred to here are often described as ‘myths’, since theydo not reflect the reality of rape. We prefer to discuss powerful stereotypes that function to limit the definition of what counts as ‘real rape’, in terms of the contexts and relationships within which sex without consent takes place. As a number of researchers and legal scholars
have pointed out (see, for example, Estrich, 1987; Myhill and Allen, 2002; Du Mont. et al, 2000), despite extensive legal reform, ‘real rapes’ continue to be understood as those committed by strangers, involving weapons and documented injury. The failure of criminal justice systems to address these stereotypes means that the processes involved in responding to reported rapes – from early investigation through to court room advocacy – can serve to reinforce, rather than challenge, narrow understandings of the crime of rape, who it happens to and who perpetrates it. The attrition process itself reflects, and reproduces, these patterns.
Whilst there have been far fewer studies of the prevalence of sexual assault than of domestic violence (Hagemann-White, 2001; Kelly and Regan, 2001), access to relatively accurate official statistics for reported rapes has been more straightforward rd. Researching unreported rape and sexual assault has proved more complex than many other forms of violence against
women, since using the word ‘rape’ in questions greatly decreases the reporting of forced sex/sex without consent (Schwartz, 1997). The redesign of questions, for example, in the US National Crime Victimisation Study in 1992 resulted in findings four times higher than previous versions (Greenfield, 1997). As with all prevalence research, inconsistent findings are attributed to methodological differences with respect to: the sample; the number and content of questions asked; the format (questionnaire, telephone or face-to-face interview); and the definition of rape/sexual assault used by the researchers (see Schwartz, 1997, for a more detailed discussion). At the same time, comparative data show such significant variations (Australia, the USA and Sweden recording high prevalence rates per head of population, and
South Africa had the highest rates for both prevalence and reporting) that the possibility of Differential national levels of sexual violence within different societies needs to be explored
The prevalence estimates from both studies are considerably lower than in Painter’s study (1991): one in ten (9.7%) and one in six (16.6%) women respectively had been sexually assaulted; and one in 20 (4.9%) and one in 27 (3.7%) respectively had suffered at least one incident of rape since they were 16 (Myhill and Allen, 2002; Walby and Allen, 2004). Whilst there is considerable disparity here between the actual numbers1 7, there is convergence about the contexts in which rape takes place: women are most likely to be raped by men they know (intimates, 54%, other known individuals, 29%); and a considerable proportion involve repeat assaults by the same perpetrator (50% in the last 12 months) (Walby and Allen, 2004). The Myhill and Allen (2002) re p o rt also reflected findings from other jurisdictions (Bergen, 1995; Easteal, 1998) that rapes by current and expartners were the most likely to result in injuries. This profile also accounted for the most
common locations, which were the victim’s home (55%) followed by offender’s home (20%), public place (13%) and elsewhere (13%).
UK data and research
Figure 3.6, using official statistics from the Home Office, graphically illustrates the two patterns in reported rape cases in England and Wales over the past two decades: a continuing and unbroken increase in reporting2 0; and a relatively static number of convictions. The combination of these two trends, which began in the 1970s (Regan and Kelly, 2003), means that whilst in 1977 one in three reported rapes resulted in a conviction, by 2002 this had fallen to one in 18 (32% versus 5.6%). The only change to the overall pattern is a small increase in the percentage of prosecutions in 2001, which continues into
2002, but with no parallel increase in convictions. This may be an outcome of changes in local and/or national policy in the police and CPS. However, it is too soon to say whether this will be a sustained trend, which will also feed through into the conviction rate. In fact, the attrition rate is even greater, since official statistics exclude reports that are ‘no crimed’ very early in the process (see Gregory and Lees, 1999; Harris and Grace, 1999), not to
mention that some convictions are overturned on appeal.
The conviction rate shows a considerable range between
areas, varying from one to 14 per cent across the two years. A number of potential confounding factors were explored, including whether there were higher reporting rates per head of population, but were not linked to the variations in conviction rates in any obvious way.
Attrition internationally
In studies of attrition rates across Europe (Kelly and Regan, 2001; Regan and Kelly, 2003), Finland, Ireland and Sweden displayed the same stark trends over time as the UK, in relation to reporting and conviction rates. Whilst a number of other countries recorded variations in reporting, a decline in the proportion of prosecutions and convictions was a common trend for every country that provided data, apart from Germany where the proportion of prosecutions and convictions has risen since 1997. Much higher prosecution
rates, for example more than 50 per cent of reports in Austria and Denmark, were evident, alongside a number of countries where the majority of prosecutions resulted in convictions (Finland, Germ a n y, Hungary, Iceland). Overall these data suggest that, whilst some core problems link adversarial and investigative legal systems, a number of European countries
have higher prosecution and conviction rates than the UK. In fact, the only country with a lower conviction rate was Ireland (Regan and Kelly, 2003).
The Senate Judiciary Committee issued a report entitled Detours on the Road to Equal Justice in 1993 that documented attrition in rape cases across the USA. The average conviction rate in 1990 was 12 per cent. The report demonstrates disparities in how rape and other violent crimes were prosecuted. The key Attrition points identified were: arrest (62% of
reported rapes do not result in an arrest); dismissal (of the cases that moved into the system, 48% were dismissed before trial); and acquittal at trial. The committee also noted reluctance amongst prosecutors to bring cases where the parties were known to one another – the majority of rape cases. However, the review found significantly higher conviction rates in
particular areas of the US, including Washington and New York. A subsequent review notes that conviction rates across the USA range from 2.5 to 19.9 per cent (Sinclair and Bourne, 1998, p576) but offered little explanation of these wide discrepancies.
Brereton (1993) discusses four Australian studies where patterns similar to those documented for England and Wales and the USA are reported. The key players are the victim, in terms of the decision to report and continuing with the case, and the police in terms of the decision of whether to lay charges and their influence on the victim’s subsequent decision-making. Several studies also note 20 to 35 per cent of cases being dropped by prosecutors. Guilty pleas are much lower than in other criminal cases. Two factors had the most impact on outcomes at trial: evidence of physical injury; and admissions by the defendant at some point in the process.
Summary
Around one-quarter of reported cases were ‘no crimed’. Just under one-third of reported cases were detected but in a notable proportion of these no proceedings were brought. A conviction rate of eight per cent was found across the research sites collectively, although this was slightly higher for two of the individual SARC sites. This is higher than the national average of 5.6 per cent.
False allegations
False allegations have been one of the most contested areas within law enforcement responses to rape, with research suggesting rates are no higher than for other crimes sitting alongside perceptions of police officers and the media who take the opposite view. Some of the most frequently cited US studies put the rate as low as two per cent (Katz and Mazur, 1979).There were 216 cases classified as false allegations: as a proportion of all 2,643 cases reported to the police this amounts to 8 per cent; as a proportion of the 1,817 cases not proceeding beyond the police stage it is 12 per cent (see Table 4.2). In only six of these cases was there evidence of anyone being arrested, and in only two cases were charges laid, although there were at least 39 named suspects. Six advice files were submitted to CPS, with respect to possible charges being laid against the complainant for perverting the course of justice, and two were charged. Interestingly, most cases in this category had a forensic examination (82%, n=178), whilst far fewer made a formal statement to the police (58%, n=126), suggesting that this is a
critical stage for the admission or designation of allegations as false.
Cross-tabulations using the case-tracking database comparing the group designated false allegations (n=216) with proceeding cases (n=527) revealed the following findings.
l Cases involving 16- to 25-year-olds accounted for a higher proportion of cases designated false (52%, n=112) than of cases that proceeded (42%, n=221).
l Those in full-time work formed a smaller proportion of those whose cases were designated false (11%, n=23 compared with 17%, n=91 of those proceeding), whilst the opposite was the case for those who were unemployed (37%, n=79 compared with 18%, n=95).
l Whilst small numbers, those with a disability were almost twice as likely to be in the false allegations group as the non-disabled (51%, n=24 of 47 compared with 28%, n=192 of 695), and in 19 of these cases mental health and learning
difficulties were present.
l Only 2 of the 66 women involved in prostitution who reported were in the false allegations group.
l A greater degree of acquaintance between victim and perpetrator decreased the likelihood of cases being designated false.
l Cases were more likely to be designated false where previous allegations had
been made and/or the complainant had attended the SARC or reported to police in the Comparison areas on a previous occasion.
Exploring the grounds on which cases were deemed to be false allegations is revealing and 120 pro formas contained explanations: in 53 cases the police stated that the complainant admitted the complaint was false, most commonly within days of the initial accusation; 28 cases involved retractions; three non co-operation and in 56 cases the decision was made by
the police on evidential grounds. Interestingly, the majority of cases in which the complainant themselves admitted the allegation was false could be categorised as the often quoted motives of ‘revenge’ (n=8) and ‘cover-up’ (n=25). Although, as the explanations provided on the police pro formas which are summarised in Box A, reveals, the terms ‘revenge’ and ‘cover up’ do not do justice to the complexity of the circumstances involved.
<snip>In most of these cases there was no named assailant.
Inconsistencies in the account given by the complainant feature strongly in 30 cases, and in only 5 of these did police officers note that this involved deliberate untruths (lies as opposed to not revealing the whole truth). Previous studies have highlighted the ways in which withholding, or not remembering, information is the outcome of fearing disbelief, which may
subsequently be interpreted by police officers and prosecutors as ‘lying’.
Fearing disbelief and judgement, victims of rape may try to embellish their accounts, or conceal wrong-doing, in order to make themselves appear more ‘believable’ to the police. (Jordan, 2001a, p93)
Police scepticism promoted the narration of the very inaccuracies which, in turn, consolidated the police view that women fabricate complaints and make false allegations. (Chambers and Millar, 1983, pp86-7)
Reflecting this, a number (23%, n=14) of police officers interviewed for this study raised the issue of inconsistencies, and indicated that this had implications for the perceived genuineness of complainants.
The data on the pro formas limit the extent to which one can assess the police designations, but their internal rules on false complaints specify that this category should be limited to cases where either there is a clear and credible admission by the complainants, or where there are strong evidential grounds. On this basis, and bearing in mind the data limitations, for the cases where there is information (n=144) the designation of false complaint could be
said to be probable (primarily those where the account by the complainant is referred to) in 44 cases, possible (primarily where there is some evidential basis) in a further 33 cases, and uncertain (including where victim characteristics are used to impute that they are inherently less believable) in 77 cases. If the proportion of false complaints on the basis of the probable and possible cases are recalculated, rates of three per cent are obtained, both of all reported cases (n=67 of 2,643), and of those where the outcome is known (n=67 of2,284). Even if all those designated false by the police were accepted (a figure of approximately ten per cent), this is still much lower than the rate perceived by police officers interviewed in this study. A question asked of all of them was how they assessed truth and falsity in allegations and within this, 50 per cent (n=31) further discussed the issue of false allegations.
The interviews with police officers and complainants’ responses show that despite the focus on victim care, a culture of suspicion remains within the police, even amongst some of those who are specialists in rape investigations. There is also a tendency to conflate false allegations with retractions and withdrawals, as if in all such cases no sexual assault occurred. This reproduces an investigative culture in which elements that might permit a
designation of a false complaint are emphasised (later sections reveal how this also feeds into withdrawals and designation of ‘insufficient evidence’), at the expense of a careful investigation, in which the evidence collected is evaluated. These perceptions and orientations are not lost on complainants.
l Twelve per cent of all reported cases, or 14 per cent of those where the outcome is known, reached the trial stage.
l A proportion of these did not proceed to trial due to late withdrawal or the case being discontinued at court.
l Around half of all convictions were due to guilty pleas rather than verdicts.
l In cases where a full trial took place an acquittal was more likely to be the
outcome than a conviction and the acquittal rate in trials involving adults was
twice as high as in those involving under-16s.
Key findings
l There are false allegations, and possibly slightly more than some researchers and support agencies have suggested. However, at maximum they constitute nine per cent and probably closer to three per cent of all reported cases. An overestimation of the scale by police officers and prosecutors feeds into a culture of scepticism, which in turn leads to poor communication and loss of confidence between complainants and the police.
l In areas with integrated SARCs fewer complainants declined to complete the
initial process, and two SARC areas had slightly higher conviction rates.
l When given at an early point, honest assessments by police officers of the
likelihood of conviction and the difficulties of a prosecution are interpreted by
complainants as discouragement to continue with the case.
l There was little evidence of attempts to build cases, and some evidence of poor investigation and understanding of the law, with clear emphasis in some cases entirely on what was discrediting.
l Whilst there are many reasons why victims/survivors withdraw their co-operation, fear of the trial process and discouragement by the police featured strongly.
l Police categorisation of cases is internally inconsistent, making monitoring and evaluation extremely problematic.
l Few cases involved women with learning difficulties or women with mental health problems (see also Harris and Grace, 1999).
Intellectual disability and psychiatric instability ... tend to be viewed as diminishing the victim’s credibility, rather than enhancing her vulnerability.
(Jordan, 2001b, p349)
l None of the gang rapes with more than three assailants resulted in convictions.
l Women whose cases went to trial expressed disquiet and a strong sense of
injustice that they had no contact with the prosecution barrister52, and the majority of those where the outcome was an acquittal complained of weak prosecution advocacy in the courtroom.
l All stages of the attrition process appear more marked for young women,
particularly those aged 16 to 25, who are highly represented in cases involving false allegations, early and late withdrawal of complaints and acquittals. This requires strategies to address the way this age group is responded to and supported through the CJS.
l Alcohol consumption was present in a much larger number of cases than drugs – either voluntarily consumed or administered to facilitate rape. One would not, however, know this from recent media coverage or police awareness - raising campaigns. The ways in which consumption of alcohol contributes to all points of attrition deserves more detailed study.
