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#1 |
Banned
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,325
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UFO'S: A possible explanation
While skeptics do not attribute the alien explanation to ufo's, do they ever consider, or even praise explanations such as: Plasma Vortex's, Ball Lightning, Sprites, etc?
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#2 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 10,696
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Explaining an unknown with another unknown based on no evidence isn't skeptical.
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"The method of science is tried and true. It is not perfect, it's just the best we have. And to abandon it with its skeptical protocols is the pathway to a dark age." -Carl Sagan "They say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but it's not one half so bad as a lot of ignorance."-Terry Pratchett |
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#3 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2004
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Actually, I rarely ever see the ball lightning or plasma explanation. Sprites are a recent discovery and might explain some sightings. It is all a matter of probabilities and the circumstances of the event.
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#4 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2008
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"The method of science is tried and true. It is not perfect, it's just the best we have. And to abandon it with its skeptical protocols is the pathway to a dark age." -Carl Sagan "They say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but it's not one half so bad as a lot of ignorance."-Terry Pratchett |
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#5 |
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#6 |
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#7 |
Banned
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#9 |
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"I would give my right arm to be ambidextrous" - My Mate Dave " How do you expect me to use my initiative if you wont tell me what to do?" - Dave again |
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#10 |
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"I would give my right arm to be ambidextrous" - My Mate Dave " How do you expect me to use my initiative if you wont tell me what to do?" - Dave again |
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#11 |
Banned
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#12 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 22,634
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I will say that Phillip Klass did include some interesting explainations for UFOs. His electrical line theory is still debated. Ball lightening is rare, but I think if it's real it is usually just seen as whacky lightening.
THere are so many variables for UFOs. Most people are unfamiliar with what the night sky looks like. Rarely do amatuer astronomers see UFOs that they go "oh aliens!" Think of the thousands and thousands of amateur astronomers out there. Heck anyone can buy a telescope. I always tell people that see UFOs a lot to join the local amateur astronomy club. Most towns have one. If you go out on a clear night and just really LOOK for 20 minutes you'll usually see something that makes you go "ok WHAT is THAT". ALso big jump from UFO to alien traveller from outerspace. That's the problem. Aliens hyperjumping through worm holes to reach us hasn't been proven anymore than unicorns. Could by flying unicorns in those things (there is much historical evidence for unicorns as opposed to say aliens). People that know the sky, don't see aliens flying around. |
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#13 |
Fait Accompli
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Rain City
Posts: 2,181
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there are many people who 'know the sky' do see unexplainable sightings, that's why the amateur astronomer explanation is weak. There have been many examples of pilots at all levels of skill and experience that have reported seeing UFOs. Also, there are planes of some sort in the air 24/7 that are flying at or near the approximate heights that UFOs do. They also have a much wider field of vision than astronomers do. But to you their word seems to mean nothing. But at the same time you will accept anecdotal evidence from amateur astronomers as being golden, as in the Phoenix Lights situation. Here’s what I find ironic; if an amateur astronomer came to you and said they had seen a UFO, you would immediately go into the debunking mode and say something to this effect, “Well, he is an amateur after all. He can only look to the heavens for 8 hrs. max out of the day. And odds are high they haven’t received training in aircraft silhouette identification, etc.“ That’s a double standard. It’s like you’re making up two different sets of rules that benefit you and not the other guy. Here are the typical rationalizations that a CSIOPtic will give for UFO sightings: 1. ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENON 2. BALL LIGHTNING 3. SWAMP GAS 4. METEORS 5. MASS HALLUCINATION: 6. HOAX 7. WEATHER BALLOONS 8. FLARES (the new weather balloons) 9. FLOCK OF BIRDS 10. LIE 11. (anything I might have missed) I always get a chuckle out of the James Randi style of debunking when it comes to UFOs (or anything, for that matter). You will never hear them say that it could also be a ‘for real’ alien UFO. It’s like trying to pull the eye teeth out of an angry gorilla’s mouth. A truly objective skeptic will say, “And, yes, folks, we can’t rule out the possibility that it was of alien origin.” In other words, the simplest explanation is not always the best. |
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#14 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: May 2009
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Suddenly the burden of proof has shifted to the skeptics?
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#15 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 4,198
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Got that, folks? When you hear about a UFO sighting, especially from a pilot, remember: Aliens first, simple explanations second.
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#16 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 18,590
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Of course, that doesn't actually address what Kitty said at all. No-one claimed that they don't see things they may not be able to explain, she simply said they don't see aliens. This is because people who know what they're talking about know that there are always going to be plenty of mundane things that it's not possible to identify due to lack of information. For example, if you see a bright light in the sky but don't look any closer at the time or note where and when it was, you will never know what it actually was. That doesn't mean it was an alien, it simply means you don't have enough information.
That's the important difference between believers and sensible people. One will say "I saw something in the sky, but I don't have enough information to work out what it was.", the other will say "I saw something in the sky, and since I couldn't immediately tell what it was it can't possibly be anything normal and must have been an alien.". On a related note, I think I actually saw my first weather balloon the other day. Fortunately we had binoculars handy and could make out an orange blob with a shiny thing underneath it, but it did look very strange to the naked eye since it was a very bright light in the middle of the day that couldn't be any astronomical phenomenon but didn't behave at all like an aircraft. |
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#17 |
Watching . . . always watching.
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Southeastern USA
Posts: 1,901
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One evening on the local college campus a clump of students staring at the sky attracted my attention. They were staring at a bright UFO and were dazzled by the aerobatics it was doing--swooping and swaying and swinging.
I couldn't see the movements the students thought they saw. Fortunately, a physics teacher came strolling up and identified the UFO: it was Venus. Not swooping, swaying, or swinging at all--just very bright in the evening sky. The students didn't believe him, so he led us all to the physics building, broke out a four-inch telescope, and let us have turns looking at the planet (it was crescent-shaped). Even after that, some of the students were still insisting that the planet HAD been swooping around in the sky. |
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#18 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 8,457
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I suggest that you read the Condon Report.
Below are a few introductory paragraphs, "As indicated by its title, the emphasis of this study has been on attempting to learn from UFO reports anything that could be considered as adding to scientific knowledge. Our general conclusion is that nothing has come from the study of UFOs in the past 21 years that has added to scientific knowledge. Careful consideration of the record as it is available to us leads us to conclude that further extensive study of UFOs probably cannot be justified in the expectation that science will be advanced thereby. It has been argued that this lack of contribution to science is due to the fact that very little scientific effort has been put on the subject. We do not agree. We feel that the reason that there has been very little scientific study of the subject is that those scientists who are most directly concerned, astronomers, atmospheric physicists, chemists, and psychologists, having had ample opportunity to look into the matter, have individually decided that UFO phenomena do not offer a fruitful field in which to look for major scientific discoveries. This conclusion is so important, and the public seems in general to have so little understanding of how scientists work, that some more comment on it seems desirable...." Take especial note of the second paragraph. It applies just as well to other "woo" subjects as it does to this one. |
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#19 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2004
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Yes, and there are plenty of pilots who have caused plane crashes because of pilot error. Pilots and astronomers can make errors in observations. Astronomers DO report UFOs but most of the reports presented by EXPERIENCED amateurs and pros are usually lights of an unknown nature and nothing like the reports you read on the internet. Often they turn out to be something mundane like a rocket launch, a fuel dump of a rocket in orbit, a low earth orbit satellite (or a very high orbit), etc. etc. I can give dozens of examples but you probably will not listen anyway.
Not exactly. In the Phoenix situation (and lets not rehash the particulars in this thread), the testimony of Mitch Stanley agreed with what most of the eyewitnesses reported in the raw reports in the NUFORC database. There was also supporting testimony from others to indicate his observations were accurate. Since this was the case, it is far more likely that the Phoenix event had to do with a formation of aircraft than a huge wedge shaped object flying over the city with lights that turned invisible when it passed in front of the moon. How do you know how I would treat such a report? I have been listening to these UFO stories for years.The first thing I would do is get the particulars (time, date, direction of travel, angular speed, angles of elevation, magnitude, etc.) and see if I could offer an explanation. If I could not, I certainly would not suggest swamp gas. Sometimes I can offer an explanation and sometimes I can not. If I can not, it remain "unidentified" (not alien spaceship) because I was not there or don't have enough information to resolve it. Feel free to keep that mind closed to possibilities. While you are at it, watch this video:http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8u...indedness_tech |
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#20 |
Fait Accompli
Join Date: Feb 2009
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Posts: 2,181
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I did not state that the burden of proof has shifted at all, I don't know how you got that out of my post
I am saying there is a tendency for CSIOPtics to have double standards. They have accepted that the antecdotal evidence of ameuter astronomers as part of the 'proof positive' because it gives them the 'evidence' for the Phoenix Lights. But if someone on the other side of the fence presents antecdotal evidence then it's some kind of fallacy...that's double standards. I notice that nobody addressed my list of CSIOPtic explanations for UFO sightings. That must mean it pretty much covers all of the that you are willing to condiser. The point is that when these pat answers are given they always leave out one of the obvious...alien technology. Occam's Razor is a great tool as a starting poin but it is not necessarily always the right solution/explanation. Example: If a man's wife is murdered they look at the husband because of the statics. If the husband has an iron clad albi, they know one thing for sure; the husband didn't physically do it. That, in and of itself, does not rule out that the husband didn't hire someone to do it. That line of inquiry remains open. After the husband they look at immediate famly, friends, co-workers, etc. Then it becomes: Was she getting threatening phone calls, were there a strange man hanging around, etc. But in some cases the least likely answer is the correct one. Example: it could be a tragic coincidence like Bill Cosby's son or Michael Jordan's father. Here is a perfect example of what I mean. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwvEPeGPxeU. The link is a History Channel program on Human Levitation. Go to about 1 minute 15 seconds and watch one of your guys step on his dick and screw the pooch at the same time. You cannot open mindly dismiss or ignore an obvious possibility and consider yourself a True Skeptic. |
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#21 |
Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 224
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I live in central Florida. Several times I've seen a huge flame rising into the sky. I, of course, immediately assumed it was the second coming Jesus and started with my emergency "last minute prayer of forgiveness and acceptance of Jesus" I have memorized in case of my own death or His second coming. It's good to have these kind of things planned out just in case.
Turns out I live near Kennedy space Center and they launch rockets and shuttles. So, that explains why there wasn't any Jesus in those flames. I still say my prayer when I see them. Sure, the Space center theory explains every other sighting I've had but the next one could be Jesus. That could be a Boeing Delta II rocket, or it could be Jesus. Just seeing the light, you don't have enough data to say which. So it's better to be safe and pray. Edit: The image didn't post, so here's the link: link. |
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#22 |
Fortean
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 1,881
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I'm fascinated by UFOs, but in order to research them properly I'd have to learn about astronomy and meteorology and that's an awful lot of work. Especially seeing the paucity of most of the evidence out there.
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"Once a man admits complete and unshakeable faith in his own integrity, he is in an excellent frame of mind to be approached by con men." David W. Maurer, "The Big Con" |
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#23 |
Fait Accompli
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#24 |
Pith Artist
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The '80s
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With extraordinary few exceptions no educated person in the history of Western Civilization from the third century B.C. onward believed that the earth was flat. - Jeffrey Burton Russell It is obvious to any scientist that the bumblebee can fly because experiment proves it. - Zetie 1996 |
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#25 |
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#26 |
Fait Accompli
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#27 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 18,590
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There are two points here. Firstly, the quote function really isn't difficult to use. Secondly, "CSIOPtic" is not a real word and I have no idea what you think it means. If you want to have a sensible conversation, you need to use the same language as the rest of us. In case you were wondering, that would be English.
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#28 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: The great American southeast
Posts: 8,859
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I've read that many UFO sightings come after tectonic activity such as an earthquake or a volcanic eruption and what we are seeing may be what scientists call plasma. I once saw a volcano near Mexico City have a minor eruption and perfect UFO'S came out of the dome. Then they went back in. Strange behaviour for a other worldly craft to be doing.
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#29 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 8,457
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Did you actually take the time to read the Condon report?
It addressed the topic of this thread "UFO'S: A possible explanation". If you have some issue with the content of the report regarding the OP's question wrt and the thread topic, I'll be happy to participate in a civilised conversation. And before you ask, no, I did not read your links. Feel free to discuss the paragraphs I quoted with your own objections to their content. |
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"A closed mouth gathers no feet" "Ignorance is a renewable resource" P.J.O'Rourke "It's all god's handiwork, there's little quality control applied", Fox26 reporter on Texas granite You can't make up anything anymore. The world itself is a satire. All you're doing is recording it. Art Buchwald |
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#30 |
Graduate Poster
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#31 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,155
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The example you give was backed up not only by "ameuter (sic) astronomers" but also by The US Air Force (namely the the 104th Fighter Squadron), conflicting eyewitness reports, and even a hoaxer (http://www.azcentral.com/community/p...ights0422.html). NEXT!
You are right that it would be a double standard. Skeptics typically do not do that. They tend to leave the outside chance that something really amazing is going on. I know I do. It would be amazing if the lights were Elvis. Or Aliens. Or Unicorns. But it's more likely that the null explanation- the explanation that nothing paranormal is going on- is the correct explanation. So the burden of proof rests solely on those that claim something paranormal is happening. Wanna know what I think? I think that a bunch of the UFO reports are really UFOs- stuff in the sky which I cannot tell you what it is. The US Airforce is cooking all kinds of crazy stuff out in the deserts back there. These claims do have interesting evidence, like contrails and funding for blackops and the like. Cool stuff. Check it out, if we're voting on visiting aliens then I am for it. But my emotions have nothing to do with the fact of the matter and the facts are is that nothing unexplainable has happened. Should we also consider the second coming of Jesus, Elvis, Joe Strummer, The Easter Bunny, Santa... I mean those lights could have been Santa doing a dry run. Elvis we know exists, aliens not so much. He's got one point up already and plus he was The King. Believe me man, if there was good solid evidence of actual extra-terrestrial contact no one would be more exited than I. True. So LGM's zipping around the jaw droppingly beautiful American Southwest is a likely explanation? How? Huh? Can't watch youtube because I'm in Iraq but if this is the same program that shows goofy ****nuts bouncing around claiming that they are levitating then one bumbling skeptic is not enough to convince me. Again, the burden of proof is on the claimant. By the way, what in holy hell do you mean by "your guys"? Sure, it's a possibility but so is Elvis. I dismiss Elvis for a number of reasons, does that make me any less of a skeptic? In any case, again, if there are aliens visiting Earth no one would be more excited than me. If it were up to a vote I am for it. |
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#32 |
Fait Accompli
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Rain City
Posts: 2,181
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[quote=Astrophotographer;4805817]Y
Quote:
What does that have to do with the color of the moon? We're talking about sightings and anecdotal evidence and the double standards that CSIOPtics use. Once again, you're saying that your anecdota levidence is righteous but the other guy's antecdotal evidence is bunk. Pilots and astronomers can make errors in observations. Astronomers DO report UFOs but most of the reports presented by EXPERIENCED amateurs and pros are usually lights of an unknown nature and nothing like the reports you read on the internet. Often they turn out to be something mundane like a rocket launch, a fuel dump of a rocket in orbit, a low earth orbit satellite (or a very high orbit), etc. etc. I can give dozens of examples but you probably will not listen anyway. Not exactly. In the Phoenix situation (and lets not rehash the particulars in this thread), the testimony of Mitch Stanley agreed with what most of the eyewitnesses reported in the raw reports in the NUFORC database. There was also supporting testimony from others to indicate his observations were accurate. Since this was the case, it is far more likely that the Phoenix event had to do with a formation of aircraft than a huge wedge shaped object flying over the city with lights that turned invisible when it passed in front of the moon.
Quote:
all instances even being so bold as to include all of the alleged and/or multiple witness sightings since the beginning of time I have been listening to these UFO stories for years.The first thing I would do is get the particulars (time, date, direction of travel, angular speed, angles of elevation, magnitude, etc.) and see if I could offer an explanation. If I could not, I certainly would not suggest swamp gas. Sometimes I can offer an explanation and sometimes I can not. If I can not, it remain "unidentified" (not alien spaceship) because I was not there or don't have enough information to resolve it.
Quote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwvEPeGPxeU While you're at it, watch this video, it is a prime example of what I mean about the CSIOPtic version of debunking. It's one of your guys who already had his mind made up beforehand and bent and warped the scenario to conform to his reality map in order to maintain the structural integrity of his cognitive closure |
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#33 |
Fait Accompli
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#34 |
Fait Accompli
Join Date: Feb 2009
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I said at or near the approximate heights of planes. I didn't say anything about the 'average' height", you did. I believe that's either a Straw Man or a red herring. I know, it's a Straw Man fishing for a red herring.
It's like when airplanes have flown side by side with alleged UFOs. But you still won't give up the ghost and say one of the possibilities, although the least likely, is a UFO, will you? |
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#35 |
Fait Accompli
Join Date: Feb 2009
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Sorry, but when I hit the submit button it said something to the effect that I didn't have enough letters, so it wouldn't allow it.
CSIOPtic is a neologism, a phrase that I've coined. It's a politically correct way of saying psuedo-skeptic. I find it very ironic that you accuse me of not using a real world when you guys use the neologism, woo woo. That's not a real word either, but you hear it over and over on this site. So maybe you should take your own advise and start talking English. |
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#36 |
Graduate Poster
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#37 |
Fait Accompli
Join Date: Feb 2009
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Quote:
Come on, give it up. Occam's Razor says the simplest explanation is usually the best. But Occam's Beard (neologism) says, "The simplest insn't always the best." That's a tool any sefl-respecting skeptic would have in their tool box. I just want to hear you say it one time: A for real, UFO of alien origon is also a possibility, isn't it? |
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#38 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,155
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Then it wouldn't be a UFO then would it? It would be a SPACESHIP!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#39 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 10,696
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Looks like you don't even know what Occam's Razor is:
Quote:
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"The method of science is tried and true. It is not perfect, it's just the best we have. And to abandon it with its skeptical protocols is the pathway to a dark age." -Carl Sagan "They say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but it's not one half so bad as a lot of ignorance."-Terry Pratchett |
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#40 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,843
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Sigh...Pilots are just susceptible to errors in judgement for objects in the sky as anybody else. If a pilot can make a mistake flying a plane, he certainly can mistake a star, meteor, balloon for a UFO.
That's a load and you probably know this. List all UFO explanations ever given and show how they fit into these 11-12 cookie cutter templates. I will bust that line with the 2004 Mexican USAF FLIR footage. They were oil well fires. That is not in your list (unless you want the blanket other, which means there are a lot more than 11-12 potential explanations). I have yet to read a single UFO report that can be used as proof of an alien spaceship. Have you? I examine the actual evidence that is presented. Have you? I hear a UFO report and want to know more and not just accept that it is an alien spaceship? Do you? I would like to know what causes UFO reports? Do you? Are you blindly assuming every UFO report is an alien spaceship? Are you willing to dismiss an explanation because it contradicts what you want to believe? This is the definition of being close-minded. I at least look at possibilities. Like I said, just because a UFO report can not be readily identified does not mean it is an alien spaceship. I am not sure what this has to do with UFOs. |
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