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Astrology test protocol in progress..

Kuko 4000

Graduate Poster
Kuko 4000
Joined
Mar 2, 2008
Messages
1,586
My friend is a big time believer in astrology. He is also an Ayurvedic consult and a Yoga teacher. He has now started to study astrology and is willing to participate in a test of its effectiveness.

First of all:

If you want to participate in this test please do NOT post your birth details here or even that you would like to participate, instead contact me via PM when the protocol is ready-ish.

Ok, I suggested the following protocol:

The birth details of 10 persons (date, time, and coordinates) will be sent to the astrologer.

He will write a personality essay for each of the dates.

He will send the essays back to me.

I will send all of the essays forward to all of the persons.

They will pick what is most like their own personality.

Analysis of the results.
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The problem is, when I suggested this as a work-in-progress protocol, he started backpedalling a bit. He said that this would be a lot of trouble and hard work for the participants (which I don't think is a problem) and for him too (which is a problem), he said it takes about an hour for one profile. And he is leaving to the States soon. I asked how many essays would he be able to write and he said how about 4.

So, any suggestions for a good online astrology test with only 1-4 personality essays from the astrologer? I wouldn't want to make any noob mistake here.
 
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Collect the birth data for 10 people and label those 1-10. Have your astrologer use some randomization device, such as a 10-sided die, to pick a number. Send him the birth details that correspond to that number and have him write an essay for only that person. Check the essay to make sure that it doesn't have any obvious clues (references to age, etc.). Send the same essay to all 10 people and have all of them rate it as if it were their own. The highest rating should match the person for whom the essay was written.

To make the test even more exacting, have the astrologer do two or three essays and all of the participants rate all two or three. If the highest rating for each matches in all three cases, I would be impressed.

ETA: Your astrologer should be warned that he should use very distinct features and descriptions in his essays. Vague language will not be rated very well by a bunch of skeptics!
 
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Thanks Hoku :)

Hokulele said:
ETA: Your astrologer should be warned that he should use very distinct features and descriptions in his essays. Vague language will not be rated very well by a bunch of skeptics!
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Yes, I gave him a Wiki-link to the Forer-effect. This is the part where I see problems emerging. Your suggestion was exactly what I was after, I'm gonna think about it for a while.
 
"The astrologer" has agreed to the protocol that Hokulele suggested. He also agreed to make 3 profiles. It looks like we are proceeding with this. Now would be a good time to contact me via PM if you wish to volunteer. Please read the bolded part in the OP before posting anything.

The current work-in-progress protocol:

I will collect 10 birth details and number them randomly.

The astrologer will send me three numbers from 1-10.

I will send him the birth details that match the numbers.

He comes up with the profiles and sends them back to me.

I will send the profiles to all 10 volunteers and they will rate each of them from 0-10.

0 being a total opposite and 10 being a perfect match.

Final analysis of the matches.
Click to expand...


Problems, ideas, suggestions?
 
Kuko 4000 said:
What's your point Bubble? That I should know the perfect protocol by now or that there is no reason for tests like this anymore?

Problems, ideas, suggestions?
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"Problems, ideas, suggestions?" That's my point - you'll get plenty from the linked thread. I did not intend to discourage you from going ahead with your tests - quite the contrary ;)
 
Blue Bubble said:
"Problems, ideas, suggestions?" That's my point - you'll get plenty from the linked thread. I did not intend to discourage you from going ahead with your tests - quite the contrary ;)
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Thanks for your input, it's just way more efficient to have someone like Hokulele offer a solid protocol in this thread than it is for me to browse through an old 10 page thread. I followed (and maybe also posted in) the Marrena-thread in real time and still can't remember the details that well, memory, it's my weakness. As is laziness. I'm trying to get better!

It's also good to have threads like this out in the open, people might get inspired, I know I did.
 
One more thing, as a reply to few of the PM's I've received, I don't know the details yet, but "the astrologer" wants an accurate time of birth. We are talking minutes here, so anyone who wishes to take part should have their birth certificate at hand (he might also require this as a proof), otherwise it just doesn't serve the purpose. Keep them coming though, I will get a good idea of the amount of available volunteers I can reach from this forum and will PM and post the details as soon as I have them.
 
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Kuko 4000 said:
One more thing, as a reply to few of the PM's I've received, I don't know the details yet, but "the astrologer" wants an accurate time of birth. We are talking minutes here, so anyone who wishes to take part should have their birth certificate at hand (he might also require this as a proof), otherwise it just doesn't serve the purpose.
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That will severely limit your pool of potential volunteers. Many countries don't include time of birth on birth certificates, or at least only started doing so fairly recently. My birth certificate certainly doesn't include it.
 
Pixel42 said:
That will severely limit your pool of potential volunteers. Many countries don't include time of birth on birth certificates, or at least only started doing so fairly recently. My birth certificate certainly doesn't include it.
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True, I'm willing to dance with "the astrologer" this time, I don't see the point otherwise. If he needs an accurate (I know, I know :boggled:) time of birth to perform his magic, I will do my best to make him happy.
 
Kuko,

May I humbly suggest that, since the astrologer being tested is a friend of yours, you should not be intermediary. Too much chance for info leakage, or even outright fraud. Find a third party who does not know the astrolger to do this.

IXP
 
IXP said:
Kuko,

May I humbly suggest that, since the astrologer being tested is a friend of yours, you should not be intermediary. Too much chance for info leakage, or even outright fraud. Find a third party who does not know the astrolger to do this.

IXP
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Thanks IXP, but I don't think that's necessary here unless you think there's a danger for something other than deliberate info leakage or fraud that is somehow connected to me, and only me. I'm open to the possibility, but just can't think of anything that would compromise the test. We just need to make sure everything goes according to keikaku.

That is an interesting point though, but who is to say that the person I choose or trust to be chosen is not "in it" as well. Maybe you are my partner in crime IXP! Also, how can "the astrologer" be sure that no one is messing up the results afterwards? (EDIT: I guess if the volunteers would send their answers straight to "the astrologer", that's how.)

If anyone here would like to volunteer for the job I'm all for it though, feel free to PM, I'd appreciate it. I just need to cross check your woo-record first!
 
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You might consider the extent to which the astrologer is taking this seriously. If he's stating an hour to prepare each profile, and the original idea was ten, then that's no more than a busy day's work, or two if he's spreading it out. Presumably this is what he does for a living? I'd put in ten hours work for a chance to prove the validity of what I did for a living. There's not a lot that can be done with four profiles. It'll give a rough indicator, but only a rough one. You're saying that each person will be provided with all four, and they should try and pick their own out? With ten profiles and ten people receiving them, if everyone was able to clearly pick their own that would be damn near conclusive, barring other sources of information leakage. Four profiles, not so much.

A.
 
Kuko 4000 said:
"The astrologer" has agreed to the protocol that Hokulele suggested. He also agreed to make 3 profiles. It looks like we are proceeding with this. Now would be a good time to contact me via PM if you wish to volunteer. Please read the bolded part in the OP before posting anything.

The current work-in-progress protocol:

I will collect 10 birth details and number them randomly.

The astrologer will send me three numbers from 1-10.

I will send him the birth details that match the numbers.

He comes up with the profiles and sends them back to me.

I will send the profiles to all 10 volunteers and they will rate each of them from 0-10.

0 being a total opposite and 10 being a perfect match.

Final analysis of the matches.
Click to expand...


Problems, ideas, suggestions?
Click to expand...


I suggest that the volunteers use a weighted system of assessment, grading each claim line by line, as it were, rather than a simple rating from 1 to 10.

A general assessment runs the risk of having "cold reading" tactics and problems with self-reporting influence the results. The requirement to rate the prediction of specific events, responses and behaviors of the person represented by the interpretation of the birth chart would help to better quantify the overall accuracy.
 
Andrew Wiggin said:
You might consider the extent to which the astrologer is taking this seriously. If he's stating an hour to prepare each profile, and the original idea was ten, then that's no more than a busy day's work, or two if he's spreading it out. Presumably this is what he does for a living? I'd put in ten hours work for a chance to prove the validity of what I did for a living. There's not a lot that can be done with four profiles. It'll give a rough indicator, but only a rough one. You're saying that each person will be provided with all four, and they should try and pick their own out? With ten profiles and ten people receiving them, if everyone was able to clearly pick their own that would be damn near conclusive, barring other sources of information leakage. Four profiles, not so much.

A.
Click to expand...


Like I said in the OP, he is not an astrologer, he is only a firm believer in astrology and is studying it. He does not do this for a living. He did not accept the protocol in the OP. He did agree to the protocol that Hokulele suggested in post #2, and that's what we're going to use.
 
leonAzul said:
I suggest that the volunteers use a weighted system of assessment, grading each claim line by line, as it were, rather than a simple rating from 1 to 10.

A general assessment runs the risk of having "cold reading" tactics and problems with self-reporting influence the results. The requirement to rate the prediction of specific events, responses and behaviors of the person represented by the interpretation of the birth chart would help to better quantify the overall accuracy.
Click to expand...


This is something that needs to be clear before anything happens. I agree that a more detailed claim by claim grading sounds more precise than a general number at the end of the paper. Maybe the volunteers could count "hits" and "misses" per paper.
 
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Clearly this guy is looking at Vedic astrology, not traditional western astrology. I'm open to there being something show up actually, for the reason that what they do is based on precise time and place of birth and doesn't really get into prediction, rather just descriptions.

There is scientific reason to believe that when and where you are born can have an effect on personality and other aspects of life, such as health. Whether it be the effect of seasonal diets, weather including temperature, cultural effects, whatever. Still, I'd be surprised if the effects were large enough to show up in anything other than large samples.
 
He needs three pieces of info.

Date: (DD.MM.YYYY)

Time: (24h)

Hometown and country: Include coordinates if possible.

He is ok with the protocol that Hokulele suggested on post #2.

He is ok with the "hit and miss" grading.

I'm away for a couple of days, but will be back on friday! Keep the PM's coming if you wish to participate, thanks for everything so far. I'll contact everyone via PM when the action heats up.
 
My wife, who can do a star chart in her head, but doesn't believe in it, claims to be an Orion because, after several thousand years, the constellations have moved enough that the Sun spends a couple hours in Orion as it passes from Gemini to Cancer. :rolleyes:

Her abilities do come in handy when I come in from outside and ask, "Was that Mars about 30 degrees up and a bit northwest?" and she pauses for a moment before saying, "No, that was Jupiter."
 
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