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#1 |
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Identification of the Toshiba radio from PA103
Staring with this post in the MST-13 timer thread, the subject of the radio in which the bomb was housed was raised.
This is a separate topic, really, and very interesting in its own right, so I thought it could do with a new thread. A few basic points. Khreesat was using (among other things) Toshiba Bombeat radio-cassette reconders to make his bombs in Neuss, however the only one that was recovered used a mono radio. Abu Talb, I believe, said the PFLP-GC never used stereo models, I think because there wasn't so much room for the explosives. After Lockerbie, bits of a radio-cassette player began to be discovered, and a small piece of printed circuit board found blasted into the luggage container was identified as part of Toshiba Bombeat - but a stereo model. Exact identity of the model depended on parts of the manual which were apparently packed with the bomb radio, and enough of which were recovered to identify it. One version does this entirely from very small scraps that were blasted into parts of the clothes in the bomb suitcase, but in another version the nearly-intact manual, or at least a page of it, was recovered many miles away in Northumberland. How a page-sized part of a paper manual could have survived that explosion is unclear. Various conclusions seem to be drawn as to the exact identity of the radio, and sometimes it's white but then there's black plastic as well. In the end it is decided that it's part of a batch that was only supplied to Libya - another solid brick in the wall incriminating Libya. I'd like to figure out how well-founded the conclusion about the radio being the model it was said to be, and traceable to Libya, actually is. Sorry, some people might have to re-post some stuff. Here's the relevant part from the court judgement, which presumably summarises the salient points the prosecution relied on.
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Rolfe. |
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#2 |
Illuminator
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I've been slow to come around on the radio itself issue. This thread would be a good spot to to discuss the radio model and what it means for the case.
On the white plastic I had this jotted down
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#3 |
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#4 |
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According to the court judgement, the bits of radio manual used to make the identification were small scraps recovered from four different items of cloth found on the ground. The paper seemed to have been blasted into the fabric by the explosion. This is just about credible, assuming the scraps were propelled into the cloth by something hard, which also shielded them as they moved at great speed away from the centre of the explosion. What is less credible is that enough remained to determine exactly which model of radio the manual referred to, given the amount of standard, repeated text on most of these things.
However, Mrs. Horton's find is different. She said she handed in a fairly substantial piece of paper to the police, either the intact manual or an intact page (possibly the cover?). She found this in her garden, the day after the crash. Her gripe was that at the time of the trial she was asked to confirm the identity of that exhibit, and she believed it had been tampered with - she said it was damaged and burned, which it hadn't been when she picked it up. The police line was that it had been damaged during forensic testing. This is weird. First, while it's just conceivable that small scraps might have survived embedded in the cloth, as described, the chances of the intact manual or even an intact page surviving that explosion are lower than the proverbial snowball in hell. Second, if there were four separate punched-out scraps recovered, how exactly could the manual or even a page of it be recovered virtually intact? Caustic Logic made an interesting suggestion. Suppose Mrs. Horton picked up some random piece of litter from her garden 60 or 70 miles away. Maybe it was a manual for a radio or something like that, they're not exactly uncommon. Maybe it was something that came down from PA103, or maybe not. But it can't have been something that was inches from that explosion! She didn't photocopy it, did she even take a note of what was written on it? She just handed it in. Is it possible that during the investigation a page of the manual the authorities wanted it to be was substituted for whatever she handed in? And singed a bit to make it look as if it had indeed been near the explosion? I'd have thought that would have been shot down in court - that it would be obvious such a large piece couldn't survive. And indeed the court doesn't seem to have relied on it for identification. But then we have the Crown Office even NOW declaring that Mrs. Horton's page was indeed the same manual. I'm also intrigued by the comment that the compacted fragments found in the shirt (five leaves compacted together) came from the same page. How could that happen? I'd have assumed these leaves would have been consecutive pages. Did the hard object flying off the explosion fold and corrugate one page then? It's all very peculiar. Rolfe. |
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#5 |
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Sorry, I meant to move those posts I made yesterday into this thread earlier. Thanks Rolfe.
I must admit, the Toshiba radio and the inconsistencies surrounding it's discovery and identification, is something I haven't looked at too much. Not because I'd never heard or thought of it's significance, but simply because of the sheer amount of reading, double-checking and learning process that is involved in some of the other aspects of the 103 bombing, investigation and trial. Are the scraps identified by Hayes/Feraday part of one and the same manual of a relatively undamaged page found in Northumberland? It would seem that that is the position of both the prosecution and the Crown Office themselves. The scorched, compacted pieces as shown in the prosecutions production PP8932 claimed to wrapped around the bomb, also allowed one full page to escape from the initial Toshiba bomb, out of the suitcase, exit the baggage container and make it's way 60miles and 31,000 feet almost unscathed. Surely, if not a piece of the same apparent manual, then why would it be presented in court? It was Libya who had (just like the timer fragment) made a specific order of these models of Toshiba, and therefore could not be a manual of UK model. So this sheet of the manual discovered by Mrs Horton, must've been of the model RT-SF16. However, as she herself claimed at Zeist, it had been severly damaged since she had found it, and it was now almost unrecognizable. Link to the Horton's story - http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/nort...9310-21640187/ |
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#6 |
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Oh, thanks, I hadn't seen that. So the Hortons were finding quite a bit of debris from the crash, because of the high wind - Christmas cards and so on. This sets the scene a bit better. And among this stuff was ....
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"part of a radio cassette manual with the word Toshiba clearly visible." How on earth is that supposed to have survived that explosion? Supposedly being right beside the radio when it exploded. It's ridiculous. As others have said, radio-cassette players were common Christmas presents. It's perfectly possible there could have been others, boxed with their manuals, on that plane. Far enough away from the bomb to escape incineration and come down along with Christmas cards. Mrs. Horton doesn't know the exact model number the piece she found referred to. She only knows it said "Toshiba". (God, the things were everywhere at that time! "Hey, Tosh, got a Toshiba?" was one of the most irritating adverts of all time.) And it sounds as if "Toshiba" was about all that was left legible by the time of the trial. Suppose you have a bit of a random Toshiba manual that came down in Northumberland with the Christmas cards. And you want a particular Toshiba model, that was only supplied to Libya, to be implicated in this bombing. Maybe you do get a manual for the model in question and substitute a page of that for Mrs. Horton's page. Then you damage it a bit, partly to make it more plausible it was close to the explosion, and partly to obscure anything else she might have remembered about it that might lead to a suspicion it wasn't the same bit of paper. It's at least as plausible a story as the idea that the same manual simultaneously had a few small scraps blasted hard into some of the clothes that were around the bomb, and yet at the same time one page survived "almost intact" to be blown over 60 miles in a 90mph gale, and come down just "a bit tatty round the edges". Never mind how the fibreglass timer fragment couldn't have survived the explosion, how did a sheet of paper pull off that trick? Rolfe. |
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#7 |
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Originally Posted by Buncrana
Indeed, that is an important point. Consider the disadvantage Megrahi was under. He didn't just have a team of prosecution lawyers ranges against him, he had a huge investigation effort - Scottish and English and FBI and everything - all dedicated to constructing a case against him. This happens quite a lot. The police get an idea into their heads and run with it.They work with the prosecution to try to prove the case in court. The defence team have to make them prove it, or else the case falls. Theoretically. The defence team aren't just expected to be legal defence, they pretty much have to be their own detectives to try to find out how the police have got it wrong. Sometimes, though, this does lead to a miscarriage of justice. This was a particularly hard one, because of the sheer complexity and amount of evidence to make sense of. Also, it's far harder to figure things out if the investigators are falsifying evidence, as might have been the case. Did Megrahi's defence team have a realistic chance of figuring out the flaws in the prosecution, in the time available? I don't think so. I think they concentrated on the most obvious things, like the Gauci identification, and on trying to make the prosecution prove their case rather than on explaining what Megrahi was really up to with that coded passport that day. Nobody really predicted the Internet would give many people who are just interested the chance to look in detail at the evidence, at their leisure, and chew over the snags. Rolfe. |
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#8 |
Illuminator
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Okay, on the radio model, the first I heard of a significance vis-a-vis guilt was from R. Marquise:
Quote:
The second part is the clue I need to name the official. The source for that is Giaka. As I just typed up elsewhere, as part of Giaka's qualifications as star witness:
Quote:
Okay, so it was Said Rashid, head of JSO operations section, who made some major order for the RT-SF16 model, to make sure people would guess it was probably theirs if they found one, then packed it with the highly unique identifiable timers he bought, apparently way too little explosive, and had it set to all blow up over land and leave the clues everywhere? Does anyone happen to know what basis Mr. Marquise might have for claiming the JSO cornered the market on that model? Feraday? ETA:
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#9 |
Critical Thinker
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Well, quite. According the recent tests carried out by Wyatt, not only was the survival of the fragment "unbelievable", but all trace of the timer and circuit board was "obliterated", and yet we have the Crown themselves supporting the Hayes/Feraday theory that the page found by the Horton's was part of the very same Toshiba manual contained around the bomb.
I agree with your suggestion about the manual, and it's plausible given the other anomalies surrounding the identification of the fragment and indeed the operation and housing of the bomb. However, as you rightly point out, Toshiba radio cassettes were widely used during the 80's. So the page found by the Horton's could quite easily have been an innocent radio which had been carried by one of the passengers or crew. Surely, even the bungling Hayes/Feraday combo wouldn't have us believe that it came from the original device, when found 'almost intact' by the Horton's, together with the hope they wouldn't have remembered some of the other details noted aside from the make Toshiba? If however, it was part of the housing of the actual bomb, and as impalusible as it seems, did somehow become blown out with the resulting explosion, and landed in the Horton's garden with the other debris they recovered. However, to the horror of the FBI, MI6 AND BKA, it showed a particular model (ie. Bombeat 453, as found by the BKA in Neuss) which they definitely did not want associated with the bombing, then that would also be good reason to have it damaged beyond recognition, and used as evidence that this was part of the bomb and was assigned to the Toshiba models apperently specifically ordered by Libya. Both are possible I suppose, and I am thinking aloud here, but your scenario is certainly more plausible. As it is, here is the photo (often wrongly referred to as the fragment of timer) of the initial chip, given reference AG145 - ![]() |
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#10 |
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I just can't swallow it. I'm prepared to consider that the timer fragment might have survived, despite Wyatt's tests, and even that the few, small scraps of manual might also have survived, blasted into pieces of cloth. I don't know enough about explosives to declare these to be impossible. However, the idea that a complete page of the manual could survive, pretty much intact, and blowing free on the wind? Pull the other one! This becomes even more incredible when you consider these scraps that were blasted into the cloth. How did one page survive intact while other pages were mutilated to that extent? It's ridiculous. I'm also very dubious that the exact model of radio could be deduced solely from the scraps recovered from the cloth, even if they were entirely genuine finds. Altogether, I find identification evidence which relies on the manual to be highly suspect. Rolfe. |
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#11 |
Critical Thinker
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I agree, the discovery by the Horton's quite simply could not possibly have been a page from the same manual we're led to believe concealed the bomb. It's simply inconceivable.
This an aspect that I'm astounded was not made more of by Megrahi's defense during the trial. Even accepting that it was from the page found by the Horton's, (as the court seemingly did!) why would such evidence be subjected to such 'tests' resulting in it being so dramatically changed from it's original state and then presented to a witness for them to confirm that this was their discovery? I can understand and appreciate some tests and an evaluation of particular items of evidence found, but to the extent that the evidence then becomes altered beyond recognition? The page, and the claims made about it becoming altered due to the scientific and/or explosive testing, parallels the claims made by Bollier re:the fragment. |
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#12 |
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Altered by testing or not, I simply can't see how an item of that description could have survived.
I note the actual judgement only mentions the scraps found in the cloth, not the Horton page. I don't know if anything can be deduced from that. I do know Megrahi's defence missed quite a few tricks though, by accident or design. Rolfe. |
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#13 |
Illuminator
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Great discussion! Sorry I haven't been involved more, but I like where you guys are taking it. If you have the transcripts handy, Feraday is quizzed about the Horton page. If I read it right, he says that page was received at RARDE May 11 1989. Isn't that the day before those other bits of manual were found inside PI/995?
Sorry, that's Day 18. Do a word search for "HIBA" with quotes. |
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#14 |
Illuminator
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Some interesting stuff put together here
http://lockerbiedivide.blogspot.com/...rs-manual.html What's up with the winning streak from mid-May to June 1? It starts with PT/2, found in clothes perchance the day after they ingested (at request I'd guess) the previously known manual fragment PK/689 ![]() 3hundred whatever grams of semtex, dude. May 16, I guess that's the exam of that one. In the meantime tho, on May 12, Hayes find PT/2 inside clothing, perfectly matching their control manual PT/1. Another found on May 18, 22, and June 1, each time in blast-damaged clothing later traced to Malta. The latter two were from the curiously symbolic blue babygro. There's probably others, but that's a partial list. |
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#15 |
Critical Thinker
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Okay, I've managed to track down the exact details of the fragments of the Toshiba Manual presented at Zeist. The portion(s) extracted by Hayes embedded in the Slalom shirt collar (PP 8932/PI 995) and that of Mrs Horton, found in her garden on 22 December.
So far I've only managed to find 3 references to the Manual. The two productions Hayes and Mrs Horton's discoveries, and another extracted by Hayes from the Blue Babygrow determined to be in the primary suitcase.
Originally Posted by Rolfe
So, Mrs Horton finally concedes, under some protest and clearly perplexed, that she does "recognise the Item? yes, uh-huh."
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So, astoundingly, the Judges fully accept that Mrs Horton's find of an almost intact and recognisable page found about 60 miles east from Lockerbie, forms part of the same page of the manual that was extracted from a badly burned and damaged shirt collar found and logged by Gilchrist and McColm. Although, I'need to double-check the labels assigned to different photo's and evidence, I think the details and photo of the page of manual are on Caustic's post above and on the Lockerbie Divide site this morning. |
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#16 |
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Thanks for all that, Buncrana. That is Completely. Bloody. Insane. I've been prepared to believe it possible that a small piece of timer circuit board could have survived the "brisant explosion" by being blasted into fabric and blown rapidly away from the explosion. I've even been prepared to believe that a fragment or two of the paper manual might have been preserved in the same way, if a hard object had shielded them from the main blast. I call total argument from incredulity on the concept that a free sheet of paper could have survived that lot, to show up on the ground 60+ miles away. And double incredulity that the five-fold fragment in the collar came from the same sheet of paper as the free section. It's BARKING. Either this is a complete incompetent muddle, with items not in the bomb bag being erroneously identified as being in the bag - and frankly once you get into that where does it stop, is the whole thing a complete mistake and the bomb never was in the Samsonite suitcase at all, was Gauci's mystery shopper just an innocent Lockerbie victim and so on - or somebody has been manipulating the findings. Rolfe. |
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#17 |
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And talking of the blue babygro, remember the mountain rescue squad swore they'd found it intact....
Rolfe. |
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#18 |
Illuminator
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I do think the statement about the two find being from the same page is some kind of confusion. The details of each don't support that. One is most of a page, the other small bits of several pages.
Originally Posted by Rolfe
Quote:
If it made more sense, then they'd have to dismiss it as not clear enough to become cartoonishly obvious clue against Libya #473. In retrospect they should have left the exact model uncertain. Dumbasses. Sorry, I just can't help it sometimes. |
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#19 |
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Yes, that's what I thought. But then we have several statements that the five small pieces were all from a single page. Except that seems close to impossible to me. Can you locate the actual quotes? I'm going to bed. I have a tennis match to watch at 8 o'clock in the morning! Indeedy. But the opinion of the court only lists four fragments found embedded in clothes as regards the manual fragments, not the Horton piece. So I wonder whether the story is that the manual could be identified from the small fragments teased out of the cloth, or if the Horton page was pivotal to the identification? Then again, was it white or was it black? If the entire tale that the radio was of a model which was (almost?) exclusively sold to Libya is based on the Horton fragment, then sorry, I call BS. I cannot possibly wrap my brain round the idea that that page survived a bang made by 450g Semtex only inches away. This is far more pivotal than questioning the plausibilily that the timer fragment might have survived. Either some other passenger on that plane was coincidentally carrying a manual for one of the Libyan batch of radios, or that bloody thing is a plant. A much more obvious plant than the timer fragment. Let's examine where that page might have come from if the whole story is legit - because it sure as hell didn't come from the bomb suitcase. Maybe someone in Northumberland had one of the Libyan batch of radios, and threw away the manual, and a page just happened to get mixed in wth the Lockerbie debris. Yeah, right. Maybe another passenger on the plane was carrying a manual for one of the Libyan batch of radios, and it fell free during the crash and a page came down in Northumberland with the Christmas cards. Yes, maybe. But if so, WHERE WAS THE RADIO? It's unlikely a manual on its own would be in someone's luggage, it would have been carried with the radio itself, probably wrapped as a gift. If something like that came apart to the point where the manual was blowing free, the radio would be in bits on the ground. Is it possible that might have been unremarked by the investigators? I'm seriously calling plant on this, unless someone can come up with a more plausible explanation. I think the Hortons picked up a page of a Toshiba manual all right, either from the crashed plane or just local litter, but it was nothing to do with Libya. Or the IED. Later, this was substituted with a page of a manual relating to the Libya-only model, and beat up a bit so that Mrs. Horton wouldn't be able to be certain it wasn't the same thing. Sure, there could have been other ways of getting that evidence in. But if you're a bent scientist combing the evidence, and you're aware of the page picked up in Northunberland, what better way to get your evidence in but to tie it to a real find by a real person who is perfectly on the level? It's Hayes again, of course. I'm beginning to realise the suspect PI995 isn't the only bit of shenenigans he might be associated with. What else came up (apparently) in that fortninght in May when he was finding these great clues? Rolfe. |
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#20 |
Illuminator
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True - somehow that picture (btw sorry it was so big) just sticks as "the manual" and I'm seeing them nodding their wigs on seeing it. THAT they can grasp... But as they say:
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So I still think the whole manual thing was faked and hard to believe. This page is just the icing on the cake of stupid. The long middle of your post is too good to add much to. My thoughts but better. This thing screams plant. The actual radio bits seem borderline plausible, but the paper manual, would you believe it? No, sir. No I wouldn't. From what Buncrana shared, regarding debris across all the area, I'm presuming a manual page came from the plane. It was a PAGE, which means, not primary suitcase. Probably NOT RT-SF16, not neccessarily even a radio. Mrs. Horton remembered Toshiba. She was on record. They love the vox populi touch for public cases - real people who recall OOPS not quite the same thing, but... This seems a compromise between "intact page found" and "damaged by farking bomb" - problem is, explicitly, the claim is "intact page damaged by bomb, subsequently damaged in forensics, examined as if all damage was from the bomb." It really does look like no damage was added, a bomb's worth of tearing, or even a bit less.
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uh... This issue was already decided unanimously by three judges yadda yadda? |
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#21 |
Illuminator
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Certainly, I've got a little more of a run at it now.
day 20 3099-
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And you get one guess what that fragment was that tore em out! Do Libyan manual bits surviving get more plausible if they're rushed off by bits of Libyan timer that survived? Can they include anything in this mix that's not Libyan? |
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#22 |
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This makes better sense than some of the other versions I've read. Actually, a lot of these manuals are many-folded blocks of paper made from a single large sheet with instructions in several languages. But it sounds as if this one wasn't like that, and six pages (probably three pages folded and stapled) is probably what they're describing. So, the front cover flies free and more or less unpunctured, to be picked up in Northumberland, while the remaining five sheets are subjected to multiple punched-out holes caused by small hard objects being propelled against the manual. (I think it's the back cover that's blank.) Does this sound likely to you? It's only possible if the manual has been packed with the front cover open, which isn't all that likely to start with. And even if that had been the case, the chances of that sheet of paper surviving make the proverbial snowball in hell look like a good bet. However, I don't think it was the timer fragment that was supposed to have preserved the bit in the shirt collar - I seem to remember they were in separate holes in the cloth - according to Hayes, that is. Actually, I'm still wondering what the intact comparison manuals looked like for this radio - there's supposed to be a photo somewhere but I don't understand the court numbering reference system used in a lot of the posts. All the references to "same page" make me wonder if it might indeed have been one of these many-folded one-sheet things. Which would make the detaching of the front cover even more implausible. Rolfe. |
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#23 |
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extracts of Feradays testimony Day 18 about the identification of the Toshiba radio:
Originally Posted by Allen Feraday Trial evidence
Invstigators looked at Khreesats bomb with the icecube timer recovered by the initial Autumn Leaves raid, they note it's radio was called "BomBeat". One radio the RT-SF16 was also called "BomBeat" although a different style.
Originally Posted by Feraday evidence
Originally Posted by Feraday evidence
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#24 |
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couple of things that jump out at me here:
i) People are creatures of habit. If we accept that the RTF-16 radio was the correct model, like the Khreesat bomb, it was named "BomBeat" Is it more likely that the same terrorist group will use a similar MO when they carry out attacks, and so the name "BomBeat" in the radios description points to the same perpetrators? Or is it more likely that the name is yet another coincidence, perhaps pointing to nothing more than the fact that terrorists share a twisted sense of wordplay. ii) The *crucial* piece of manual PK/689 just happens to be examined on the day after the most crucial piece of evidence in the entire case is also examined by the same examiner?! 15th May, apparently, Hayes discovers the MST-13 fragment - the next day he examines PK/689, thats a hell of a 2 days, yet another coincidence? They're stacking up. Finally of PK/689 on the 16th Hayes notes state that it was photographed. If this item was photographed, then PI/995 ought to have been as well, where are those photos? |
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#25 |
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Originally Posted by Feraday Trail evidence Day 20
Originally Posted by Feraday Trial evidence
If Mrs Horton is right and she found a whole page of manual which was actually the first 2 pages,(1,2,3 & 4) then the fragments from PI/995 which are
Originally Posted by Feraday Evidence
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#26 |
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A couple of quick points.
The Slalom shirt collar was examined on 12th May, not 15th (you may be mixing this up with 15th September, the date of the Feraday/Williamson memo). 12th May was a Friday, so the manual examination you refer to above was done the following Tuesday. Still a helluva few days. I'm still not convinced anything actually happened on these days though. Khreesat's electronics stash. I don't put too much emphasis on this "BomBeat" thing. Khreesat was using a variety of electronics items for his bomb-making. There were a hi-fi tuner and a couple of VDUs as well as the radio-cassete player that was recovered. (Sorry, I don't know where to find the list of stuff right now, but it is available.) He didn't have a production run of identical IEDs. I believe Abu Talb, at Camp Zeist, said he would never have used a stereo player because there wasn't enough room inside the casing to get enough explosive in. But do we actually believe a word Abu Talb says? And if the Lockerbie evidence is at all to be believed (which may be a bit of an "if"), then it self-evidently was possible to get enough explosive into a stereo player. It seems to me that Khreesat was using an assortment of electronics products, so just about anything might have turned up in an incident. It's just this whole tenuous trail of a particular Toshiba model sold almost exclusively to Libya (to match the particular timer model sold exclusively to Libya) that is held to be so significant as far as the indictment goes. Rolfe. |
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#27 |
Adult human female
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That extract from the evidence absolutely clarifies the structure of the manual - it really was a stapled booklet, not a folded wad. Stuff the centimetres, let's get this straight in inches.
It's now clear that the piece of manual alleged to have been found by Mrs. Horton wasn't just one sheet but two, the first two of the six. Supposedly punched out of the middle of the manual by the explosion, presumably by something about 5 or 6 inches square being slammed into it. I'm guessing a chunk of the plastic casing of the radio, a circuit board from inside it, or maybe the tape transport if that was still in it. Presumably all 6 pages were punched out, but the other four became detached and were not recovered. I totally don't buy it. That should have been incinerated. Then we have the other much smaller fragments that were found in items of clothing. I find these a bit easier to swallow as regards actual survival. However, at least one of these finds was five sheets thick, thus implying that at least one of the two Horton pages was also represented in that compacted wad. We can only account for that by assuming the area in question belonged to a part of the manual outwith the 5˝ x 5 inch Horton fragment. So, one very big fragment, of which two leaves are recovered in a legible condition, and at least four much smaller fragments from elsewhere in the manual, compacted so that most of the leaves remained stuck together, heavily explosion-damaged. All surviving and identifiable, having been right up close and personal with 450g of Semtex when it blew up. Oh come on. Do they think the judges came up the Clyde on a banana boat? Apparently so. ![]() Rolfe. |
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#28 |
Good of the Fods
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I'm conflating dates on re-numbered pages actually. Yes my mistake.
12th May (Friday) Hayes examines PI/995, notes for this examination is pg 51. 15th May (Monday) pages 52-56 are about a different examination of evidence, these pages were previously numbered 51-55 and were renumbered for reasons never explained. 16th May (Tuesday) Hayes examines PK/689. evidence number PI/991 is detailed on pg 49 of Hayes notes, dated 15th May 1989. evidence number PT/30 was noted on page 90 of Hayes notes, 8th June 1989, and is both dated later than PT/35 and has a lower evidence number. |
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#29 |
Good of the Fods
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I don't have a problem with bits of manual surviving an explosion. If you lookat pictures of impacts on 9/11 we see paper raining down into the streets. A passport survived enough to be identified later. Granted those were low pressure cooler deflagrations rather than explosions, but who knows what random things might well survive.
When Feraday goes through all this at the trial he has a series of photographs pointing out exactly where each fragment came from, one wonders if Mrs Hortons memory is accurate whether the prosecution needed to cut bits of PK/689 off in order to account for these other much smaller scraps of manual found in the babygro and the Yorkie trousers etc. Another point I thought about was this. We know that the radio itself could not be identified were it not for the manual. The innards of the radio could have come from 7 possible sources. How much of the manual is the same for each of those 7 radios? Do Toshiba write a whole new manual for each one? Do they just print alternative covers and keep the body of the manual the same? Was it ever established that the manual as found could *only* have come from this particular model, if say we discount PK/689 as possibly coming from a n other radio in someone elses luggage? Was enough of the manual recovered in the tiny fragments that are almost certainly in the IED case, blasted into bits of clothing to positively ID it as a RTF-16 and *only* an RTF-16 manual? |
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#30 |
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I don't see "9/11" as being comparable. Of course bits of paper were raining down. A couple of planes crashed into a couple of office blocks full of filing cabinets and desks covered in clutter and so on. The planes themselves were intact until they hit the buildings, and the fires were started by the engiges and fuel tanks - the fuselages themselves (where the passport and other paper would have been) didn't necessarily explode as such. I don't doubt Mrs. Horton's description of what she saw in the Northumberland countryside after Lockerbie either. That included Christmas cards raining down. The actual explosion only damaged a relatively small number of suitcases, a couple of baggage containers and the outer skin of the aircraft. Paper in suitcases that came apart as the plane came apart, and paper in the cabin, would have blown all over the place. I'm not even discounting the possibility that the small, compacted fragments might have survived, blasted into cloth as described. But once you start telling me that a 5" x 5" piece of two pages survived from the close vicinity of that explosion, blowing free in the wind, I baulk. We don't know of any paper on 9/11 that was so close to an explosion and survived, still legible. Oh wait, there weren't any explosives involved on 9/11. I haven't seen the photographs, but I'm sure they were plausible to a degree. I'm assuming the four smaller fragments were from parts of the manual elsewhere than the Horton fragment. I don't believe that what Mrs. Horton found was ever within inches of 450g of Semtex when it exploded. So I don't think it's a question of cutting anything off what she found, I think it's a question of tailoring a fragment of that manual (I imagine the police could have had as many copies as they wanted from Toshiba) so that it contained enough information to identify the exact model of radio (you know, this one model fortuitously sold only to Libya), and yet allowed for the other scraps still to have come from the same item. Mrs. Horton picked up quite a few bits and pieces and handed them in to the police in a carrier bag. Obviously these included some sort of piece of paper that could plausibly be represented as that large fragment, ten years on, to a lady who probably hadn't looked at it all that closely at the time and certainly hadn't kept a copy. I think it could be that simple. I had exactly the same thoughts, but I'm now wondering whether it actually matters. If the large Horton fragment was fabricated, then why bother sticking to the real fragments for the rest of the finds? Assuming there were any scraps of manual recovered from cloth actually picked up in Scotland in the first place. We're already very suspicious that PI995 is a plant, and that seems to contain the biggest of the scraps as well as the timer fragment. I don't know whether we have enough on the other scraps to assess whether they might also have been slipped in retrospectively late in 1989, but if they were that small, I wouldn't be surprised. I very much doubt that these tiny scraps could identify the manual as coming from one particular model. As you say, these things tend to be a bit repetitve. Their presence within the Maltese clothing does however associate the manual definitely with the bomb suitcase, rather than having it originate from elsewhere in the plane. But we can hardly get a 5x5 chunk saying "... hiba ... o cassette recorder ... SF16 ... BomBeat SF16" into a shirt collar. So we really need that bigger piece to turn up separately - not so clearly associated with the explosion as it stands, but able to be tied in with the rest once you have the template of the sample manual. Rolfe. |
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#31 |
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It occurs to me that the model of radio, in just the same way as the MST-13, doesn't in any way rule out Khreesat even if all this singularly implausible evidence is entirely genuine. We know Khreesat used a variety of electronics items for his bombs. We only have Abu Talb's word for it that the group never used a stereo radio-cassette recorder, and in the immortal words of Mandy Rice-Davis, "he would say that, wouldn't he?"
The thing the investigators loved about this radio, just as they loved the same thing about the MST-13, was that it was supplied to Libya. Well, the PFLP-GC people were Arab. They travelled around in the Middle East. One of the Lockerbie commentators places Jibril in Libya itself at the relevant time. No great reason they couldn't have picked up one of these radios, really. Just as there's no great reason they couldn't have got hold of an MST-13 from Libya to "make the medicine better, stronger". It's just that the radio identification depends on the manual, and the survival of the manual, much more so than the survival of the MST-13 fragment, really does seem extremely implausible. I suppose I'm having my cake and eating it here. If we decide that the manual and the timer fragment were planted, then we really are in the territory of dirty work at the crossroads, full-blown conspiracy and all. But on the other hand if we decide these items are really and honestly kosher, then I still think this was Khreesat's work anyway. It was just really, really convenient he utilised two vital components for his IED that it just so happened were closely traceable to Libya. But look at what was in that IED.
I think the manual is more likely to be a plant than the timer fragment, based on survivability (or not) of the explosion. I do so wish Wyatt had considered that aspect in his tests. And if the manual is a plant, then it follows pretty closely that the probability of the timer fragment also being a plant is very high. Rolfe. |
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#32 |
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Another vague thought. Feraday originally thought the radio was white. There were white pieces of plastic recorded. Then he changed his mind. The bits of plastic in PI995 were black.
I wonder where the other bits of black plastic were that helped change his mind? I wonder which of the seven possible models of radio was available in white, and where they were sold? Rolfe. |
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#33 |
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The SF 8016 was white, but otherwise looks like the same exact model. You re-posted the pics in post 3. That was the original lead with the Toshiba corp, and Feraday did report white plastics in Feb 89 IIRC as showing clearly a definitely white radio. I don't know yet what this was supposed to mean.
Then it was black, and I haven't yet seen how these two leads were ever reconciled. And it was also clearly the SF16, which is black and as we've seen indicates Libyan guilt, softly. By May 16 (says the papers) that info was available without the long process that it took to ID PT/35(b) and its links to Libya. DeBraeckeleer has a good article on this issue. Bobby Ingram's story is sounding more relevant all the time, eh? I think one issue we'll want to get at here is the collection of AG/145. Its bits were consistent with either model, and it was found with (including?) white plastic, found not in Maltese clothes but in the info plate from container AVE4041. So one wonders if the actual bomb was a white 8016? But I hear there are peculiarities about that too, like the deflection angle required for projectiles to have gotten in there. It may have been one plant job replaced with another, for all I know at his point. Sorry to be so vague, but I don't even remember where quite I saw that. But I will run across it again and the question is worth looking at.
Originally Posted by Rolfe
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#34 |
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Feradays testimony (reading from his own report) specifically states
Originally Posted by Feraday
I used to have a Toshiba casette radio very similar to the one used in the Lockerbie bomb. I also used to enjoy taking electronic stuff apart for no good reason when I was younger. There is a bunch of black plastic used in the internal construction of those radios regardless of the colour of the outside casing. You can see this in the photo of the Toshiba radio taken apart, internal constuction contains black plastics.
Quote:
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#35 |
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And were they even examined in May? One of the things I've been trying to get a feel for is the time period of the switch in the investigation from honest assessment of the evidence as it came up, to trying to make it point a certain way. I was about to post, assuming that happened, because I still entertain the possibility that no evidence was fabricated, and what actually happened was cumulative misinterpretation and misdirection until they were all baying after Libya and Megrahi with blinkers on. However, I stopped mid-sentence, because I think the details of the Horton fragment are close to convincing me that that had to have been fabricated. I started looking at the timer fragment, because that's the one everybody gets excited about, and the thing people make documentaries about and so on. Mrs. Horton is a bit of a throwaway line in the only documentary she appears in, and the significance of what she's supposed to have found isn't really explored. But really, it's the alleged survival of that 5-inch square piece of paper, and its almost equally strong trail back to Libya, that's turning out to be the killer point for me. Of course, we don't have the same provenance difficulties with the Horton fragment as with the timer fragment. Mrs. Horton found something, she remembers doing that, and she handed it in. Switching that something for a rather similar but on the other hand altogether different piece of paper isn't much of a problem. So we don't have re-numbered pages and altered labels to get excited about. We just have a piece of paper that's supposed to have survived an explosion that Wyatt couldn't even get a fibreglass circuit board to survive. Right. So when, really, did the point come when fabricated evidence was being introduced into the investigation? I don't think it was May, because so much of the timer fragment evidence suggests its May provenance was retrospective. That, to me, suggests that other fabricated evidence that seems to come up in May was retrospectively introduced too. I haven't seen any suggestion that the paper fragment was described on an interpolated page, but I don't think that's important. It's surprising that Hayes messed it up once, you wouldn't expect him to leave trails all over the place. I appreciate your point about the Lambeth laboratory and the fingerprint testing, and you could be right about that. However, all the photography seems to have happened at RARDE (and we're getting a feel for their standards of photographic provenance), and I merely wonder whether in September or later (the point when I still think the fabrications were introduced), it was clear that a different piece of paper could be substituted without anyone at the Met being able (or willing, probably) to prove anything different. I was leaning to a point later in 1989 for the introduction of fabrications, however your information about Hayes's employment history tends to nudge it all to an earlier date. I'm thinking that indeed the 15th September memo may represent activity surrounding the introduction of whatever fabrications were created - I suggest the entirety of PI995, the substitution of the RTF-16 manual pages for whatever Mrs. Horton found, and the addition of a few tiny scraps of manual to three other evidence bags. (I still don't know what to make of the Gauci clothes, at all, so I'll continue to assume the bulk of these were not planted. It's hard to imagine how they could have been, as far as I can see.) The fact that they were already messing with the evidence examined in mid-May (the genuine Horton fragment) could explain why the same time period was chosen to insert the de novo PI995 item. However, while the Horton fragment could be accommodated simply by substituting a new page for whatever Hayes wrote at the time, it was necessary to make room for an entire new page to describe PI995. So, I still think this could fit a late summer 1989 decision to take active steps to implicate Libya rather than Iran, with the fabicated evidence being insinuated into the investigation, with retrospective provenance, in September. Or do you think the Lambeth involvement in June is enough to knock this idea on the head? Bearing in mind that the Met itself doesn't eactly have a reputation for the fearless and singleminded pursuit of truth in all its forms. Rolfe. |
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#36 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Oct 2009
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Just quickly coming back to Mrs Horton's testimony, and I meant to raise this when I forsted posted it, is the sheer lack of interest or inquiry made by Megrahi's defense team.
(my bold and emphasis)
Originally Posted by Zeist Transcripts
A witness makes claims of tampering of her discovery in open court, and they have "no questions for the witness"?? Utterly bizarre. |
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#37 |
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Hans Kochler is extremely critical of Megrahi's defence team in his report. There were manipulations there, of course. Someone left the team in protest over inteference by Libyan "advisors", and after that things are said to have gone downhill.
I've got a few thoughts about it all. First, there was undoubtedly a lot of interference by Libyan lawyers, and I'm not convinced their objective was to get acquittals. It was all a fairly cosy arrangement; throw these two - or one of them at least - to the lions, pay up a few billion dollars, and then you get to play in the international community again. What would actually have happened to all that if Megrahi had also been acquitted? The other point as regards the Libyans is, I rather think they were extremely keen to avoid anything significant about what Megrahi was really doing on and around 21st December 1988, and indeed about his work in general, coming out in court. He was in Malta, travelling on a "coded" diplomatic passport. Not an illegal false passport, a legal passport with a false name, issued to him because he was an intelligence officer. One way to counter charges that he was there to smuggle a bomb on board KM180 would have been to explain, with evidence, what he was really doing. But they very definitely didn't go there. My impression was they'd rather let him be convicted than let that come out in court. Then again, the defence advocates and solicitors had one hell of a job. The prosecution had all the resources of the police at their disposal, to sift through the mountains of evidence and construct a case out of it all. The defence legal team have to to all the countering themselves - they have to be their own detectives, if you like. (This is why the Rumpole books are such fun - Rumpole is a barrister, but he's having to do the detective work to establish his clients' innocence, with both the police and the prosecution ranged against him.) But what defence advocates tend to do at that point, is to fall back on forcing the prosecution to prove their case. The defence doesn't have to prove what did happen, it just has to cast reasonable doubt on the prosecution version. Given the mountains of evidence and the complexities of this case, I think they fixed on a certain number of areas where they thought the prosecution case was vulnerable. Giaka, obviously, and they scored a spectacular victory with that one. (They may have thought they'd won when he was thrown out.) The Erac printout, where the defence advocate spent a couple of days trying to show that tray 8849 could have been a number of other things and didn't necessarily come off KM180. The timer fragment, with it's glaring problems of provenance. Gauci's identification. The Bedford suitcase (they weren't told about the Heathrow break-in of course, or they could have made more of that). I think they genuinely tried on these points, but they were only human, and they missed other tricks. The Horton pages being one of them. It's easy to concentrate on the timer and overlook the importance of the manual, as we've seen. I also think there's a big leap between casting doubt on provenance, and trying to show alternative non-incriminating explanations for the evidence, and outright accusations of fabrication on the part of the investigating authorities. We see the defence skirt this when they cast doubt on the provenance of the timer fragment, but they never throw propriety to the winds and go all-out to prove it was a deliberate fabrication. If they'd challenged the Horton fragment as it should have been challenged, they'd more or less have been forced to do that, and I suspect that's a bridge too far for many lawyers, especially in a high-profile political and international case like this, with the CIA sitting at the elbows of the prosecution. Rolfe. |
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#38 |
Good of the Fods
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The point I was trying to make earlier with the comparison to 9/11, is that what you are saying about the 5x5 piece of manual being unable to survive the explosion, is the same argument from incredulity that we hear truthers giving over say the passport of one of the hijackers.
I appreciate that we are talking here about a papr manual that was packed inside a case in which 400+g of high explosives detonated, and that no explosives detonated at ground zero, so the physics are very very different. FWIW I don't think it's possible the cover piece could have survived either, but I am not an explosives expert, I know almost nothing about explosives. My point is that Hayes & Feraday are both scientists, neither of them baulked at the idea that a fragile paper fragment could have survived the explosion. There were explosives guys at the AAIB, there have been any number of people since then looking through the evidence, and no-one with any explosives training has stated that a paper manual could not have survived, or was highly unlikely to have done. The defense team at the original trial and at the appeal do not seem to have made that argument. I'd guess that the reason the timer board should not have survived was it was in the radio and the manual was outside and might have been shielded from some of the forces involved in the explosion by the case of the radio as it was being blown apart. I think that if we are talking about when evidence was planted/tampered with/fabricated to point at Libya then we are talking about dates between May and September 1989. If we assume that PK/689 was a plant, it might well have been done to point to Khreesat, both radios called "Bombeat", PFLP-GC based in Libya, that kind of angle. |
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#39 |
Critical Thinker
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I completely appreciate what your saying, but it wasn't an entire page that was presented as evidence. It was, as Mrs Horton stated, "well, not in it's present state", when presented to her at Zeist by the prosecution.
The scraps extracted by Feraday, that being the compacted pieces found in the collar, is just about plausible at a stretch, but an entire intact page as Mrs Horton described, is a stretch too far, and no doubt would raise questions from other Scientific observers. However, Mrs Horton's adamant discovery of an entire page is simply glossed over and presumably put down to her jaded and confused memory, 11 years after the fact. The prosecution presented a badly scortched and frayed piece of manual (which no one has really questioned), and the judges simply accepted this was Mrs Hortons find (with some testing done) and just enough was legible to point towards Libya, thus Megrahi. Then my question is, if we're speculating that the manual was indeed a plant to help direct the judges, why take your plot outwith the confines of those intimately involved in the examining pieces? Do we require a corroborating source, and one outwith the primary investigators, or indeed better still, a member of the public who found something very similar many years ago could provide this corroboration? |
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#40 |
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I am not sure what you mean here.
I believe that investigators framed Libya in general and Megrahi/Fhimah in particular for the bombing of 103 for politically motivated reasons. I also believe that any conspiracy involved here will have had to have been a simple one involving as few people as possible. Other trial evidence that's pertinent to Mrs Horton.
Originally Posted by Trial evidence Day 6 pg967
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