1 in 6 women will be sexually assaulted in her lifetime

I wanted to focus on a couple of specific factual claims that came up in another thread

One in every six American women will be sexually assaulted in her lifetime.

Click to expand...

1 in 4 college women have either been raped or suffered attempted rape.

Click to expand...

Do you believe these figures?
Do you know what the methodology is behind these figures?

What if I told you that 1 in 7 Americans surveyed report some kind of UFO sighting?

See also the entry on false memories in the Skeptic's Dictionary.

Now, surely some number rapes do actually occur, but I don't think you can trust any number that's based on a survey.

Is there a better method? What do you think the true number is?

A guy with Down's once (presumably) thought I was a girl, sat down next to me and pushed himself a bit against me, and talked to me, and stroked my hair. When he realized I was a man, he ran away.

Does this count as a sexual assault?

Puppycow said:

What do you think the true number is?

Click to expand...

42

Puppycow said:

I wanted to focus on a couple of specific factual claims that came up in another thread





Do you believe these figures?
Do you know what the methodology is behind these figures?

What if I told you that 1 in 7 Americans surveyed report some kind of UFO sighting?

See also the entry on false memories in the Skeptic's Dictionary.

Now, surely some number rapes do actually occur, but I don't think you can trust any number that's based on a survey.

Is there a better method? What do you think the true number is?

Click to expand...

I think we cannot trust at all.

Well, were are figures to men?

In my personal opinion, research like this do not tell us anything, except: "Oh, look, the savage man will become even more and more savage" for a bunch of radical feminists.

I would be quite happy if was a research to show us the number of men which will become cuckolds in the next decade.

1 in 6 women....

Is it just the rates of sexual assaults that you doubt? Which of the statistics in the following report (chapter 3 is based on self report) do you doubt?

http://rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/sexoffend1.html (second report down in the publications list - I can't seem to get a direct link to work)

ETA - I think this is a good report in that is seperates out different types of experience so that, for example, while it shows that about one in four women have experienced some sort of sexual assault since the age of sixteen, most of these are made up of "less serious" offences such as unwanted touching. Serious sexual assaults (including attempted) had been experienced by about one woman in twenty.

I posted this in the other thread but it belongs here:

I did another check and Wiki rapes stats says 32.99 rape cases per 100 000 people. Assuming 16% go unreported that's 206/100 000 or 0.2% or women. (Wiki doesn't clarify if this is male and female or just females)

The Colorado Coaltion Against Sexual Assault reports:

"24% (1 in 4) of Colorado women and 6% (1 in 17) Colorado men have experienced a completed or attempted sexual assault in their lifetime"

But they then report in the very next line:

"1,794 rapes were reported to Colorado law enforcement in 1997. If compared to the 1998 Statewide Survey, these reports constitute only 16% of sexual assaults."

If you crunch the numbers from the same CCASA page, 1.7% of women between the ages of 15-24 are victimized every year. Beyond the age of 24 the chance of getting raped drops off dramatically. 22.2% of rape victims are 18-24, while only 16.2% are +24 years old. That means adult female victims are 38.4% of the total cases.

On top of that only 20% of all rapes occur in what could be considered "public" places, parties, cars, outside and in bars.

Only 26% of those incidents were committed by a stranger.

All said and done, it is extremely unlikely that an adult female will encounter a rapist or will ever be in serious jeopardy of being raped by a man striking up a conversation.

Puppycow said:

I wanted to focus on a couple of specific factual claims that came up in another thread

Do you believe these figures?
Do you know what the methodology is behind these figures?

Click to expand...

Without a very clear definition of what constitutes sexual assault, yes these figures are meaningless. I would want to know exactly what questions were asked in the survey and how those surveyed were asked to judge what could be defined as assault for the purposes of that survey.

Puppycow said:

What if I told you that 1 in 7 Americans surveyed report some kind of UFO sighting?

Click to expand...

That's nothing. 1 in 5 think the aliens are already here and walk amoung us

I'm extremely skeptical of the 1 in 4 figure and even the 1 in 6 figure. Wouldn't that would make rape (one of our societies most heinous crimes just after murder) vastly more prevalent than any other crime both violent and petty? What other crime has a per capita victimization rate anywhere close to 12% of the population as a whole? How has this massive epidemic of rape gone unnoticed in our society?

I got this from another forum discussing this very topic right now:

http://www.city-journal.org/2008/18_1_campus_rape.html

The author of this piece is obviously coming from a extremely conservative perspective (and some of her language is just ridiculous) but still manages to make a number of very good points about this movement propagating the notion that there is this insane amount of rape occurring in our society.

Professor Yaffle said:

ETA - I think this is a good report in that is seperates out different types of experience so that, for example, while it shows that about one in four women have experienced some sort of sexual assault since the age of sixteen, most of these are made up of "less serious" offences such as unwanted touching. Serious sexual assaults (including attempted) had been experienced by about one woman in twenty.

Click to expand...

there has to be a better way of saying that. how is sexual abuse involving penetration more serious than sexual abuse that doesn't?

I don't know if it's a problem in the UK, but the American fixation on penetrative rape has an unfortunate tendency towards rape victims (especially those abused by women) being turned away from shelters and being called liars.

One of the primary fears among victims of sexual abuse is that no one will believe them. I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage of unreported sexual abuse is considerably higher than 16.

†= Crap! said:

I'm extremely skeptical of the 1 in 4 figure and even the 1 in 6 figure. Wouldn't that would make rape (one of our societies most heinous crimes just after murder) vastly more prevalent than any other crime both violent and petty? What other crime has a per capita victimization rate anywhere close to 12% of the population as a whole? How has this massive epidemic of rape gone unnoticed in our society?

Click to expand...

Uh, how exactly do you define rape?

†= Crap! said:

I'm extremely skeptical of the 1 in 4 figure and even the 1 in 6 figure. Wouldn't that would make rape (one of our societies most heinous crimes just after murder) vastly more prevalent than any other crime both violent and petty? What other crime has a per capita victimization rate anywhere close to 12% of the population as a whole? How has this massive epidemic of rape gone unnoticed in our society?

I got this from another forum discussing this very topic right now:

http://www.city-journal.org/2008/18_1_campus_rape.html

The author of this piece is obviously coming from a extremely conservative perspective (and some of her language is just ridiculous) but still manages to make a number of very good points about this movement propagating the notion that there is this insane amount of rape occurring in our society.

Click to expand...

Rape is now a disease?

In criminal law, rape is an assault by a person involving sexual intercourse with another person without that person's consent. Outside of law, the term is often used interchangeably with sexual assault, a closely related (but in most jurisdictions technically distinct) form of assault typically including rape and other forms of non-consensual sexual activity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape

So is that just heterosexual intercourse then?
(In criminal law)

Puppycow said:

Do you believe these figures?
Do you know what the methodology is behind these figures?

Click to expand...

It's hard to say because most of the research is behind pay walls but it looks like a study on childhood sexual abuse kind of got spun into the claim of rape.

It appears however there is a surprising amount of research that suggests 32% of women have experienced what constitutes sexual abuse.

The research spans several decades and include 21 countries. The random surveys were completed by telephone and mailings, many of which were incomplete. I wasn't able to find the actual questions or responses.

Sexual assault does not necessarily mean rape. It is any touching of a sexual nature without consent.

SnakeTongue said:

I would be quite happy if was a research to show us the number of men which will become cuckolds in the next decade.

Click to expand...

I dunno of a research, but in spiegel (or was it stern) there was a touted statistic of 20% of child being cuckolds.

If you look anyway at reported rape statistic in another thread of 0.2% and assume only 1 in 6 are reported (16% from the otehr thread), one still don't come to the number by a factor of magnitude.

I assume that to get to 1 in 6 (or 1 in 4 for college girl in teh other thread) sexual assault is conflated with something else.

3bodyproblem said:

Only 26% of those incidents were committed by a stranger.

All said and done, it is extremely unlikely that an adult female will encounter a rapist or will ever be in serious jeopardy of being raped by a man striking up a conversation.

Click to expand...

Oh, here a number that tell me something about my personal experience.

Generally speaking, many times a woman accept sleep with a man just because she want provoke someone or because she cannot find what fit her definition of "alpha male".

Of course, this guy is already an well know person in her life.

But sometimes, the woman wake up in the next day and feel some kind of regret, which give her a reason to believe that she was raped.

I am not surprised that the law in UK was changed after many judges discover the whole details of the rape allegations:

- Oh, he had bang me without my consent...
- But we have evidence which show that you left the bar with the accused.
- Yes, yes, I was there drinking with my friends. So, Joe came and he... And he touched my body while I was dancing...
- We also have evidence from the security staff which show you had allow other men touch you...
- Really? My friends and me like to feel some male hands while dancing, you know?
- No, I do not know... And after you left the bar, what happened?
- I ask him to call a taxi and bring me to his home, because was closer.
- So the accused had forced you to have sex with him in his home after you had agree to go there?
- Yes, no, yes... Well, we had sex, but...
- But?
- He was trying to do few things I did not like...
- Like what?
- He was doing too much noise...
- Noise?
- (Judge extremely upset) This court is in recess and I wish to speak with the solicitors in my private room.

Puppycow said:

What do you think the true number is?

Click to expand...

Puppycow said:

I wanted to focus on a couple of specific factual claims that came up in another thread





Do you believe these figures?
Do you know what the methodology is behind these figures?

What if I told you that 1 in 7 Americans surveyed report some kind of UFO sighting?

See also the entry on false memories in the Skeptic's Dictionary.

Now, surely some number rapes do actually occur, but I don't think you can trust any number that's based on a survey.

Is there a better method? What do you think the true number is?

Click to expand...

The main problem with a survey method is whether women who have been sexually assaulted are more likely to respond. You would need to know something about the return rate to judge the extent of the problem.

Elaedith said:

The main problem with a survey method is whether women who have been sexually assaulted are more likely to respond. You would need to know something about the return rate to judge the extent of the problem.

Click to expand...

The one I saw was 67.5% complete enough to be considered. That was a survey that was mailed out. The study that's cited was a phone survey and I didn't see any reference to how many people responded to the question or how it was even conducted.

ETA: 935/1442 or 64.8% to be exact

ETAA: This was a study on childhood abuse and neglect, not rape. I'm sorry if I was being misleading, I'm trying to figure out how these sexual abuse centers got the 1 in 4 figure and it's not very clear.

The British crime survey I linked to above gives their definitions. Less serious assaults include indecent exposure, unwanted touching and sexual threats and serious assaults include rape and assault by penetration (actual or attempted). Considering the number of people I know who have been flashed at or been groped, the one in four figure seems very reasonable to me. And I have no reason to believe that one in twenty is too far from the truth.

And with sexual offences the problem is not that the crime rates get over inflated, but usually the opposite. The BCS brought in the self completion option for this part of the survey because people were much less likely to disclose an assault in a face to face interview.

Info on the methodology of the BCS can be found here:

http://rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/bcs-methodological.html