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Old 22nd May 2012, 07:36 AM   #1
derchin
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The Economic Collapse

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

Keeps everyone up to date with the latest news on the national (U.S) and global economy.

Tilts to the "doomsday" spectrum, in my opinion.
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Old 22nd May 2012, 08:11 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by derchin View Post
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

Keeps everyone up to date with the latest news on the national (U.S) and global economy.

Tilts to the "doomsday" spectrum, in my opinion.
A site called The Economic Collapse Blog has a pessimistic outlook? Do tell.
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Old 22nd May 2012, 08:15 AM   #3
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Tilts to the nutty spectrum, in my opinion.
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Old 22nd May 2012, 11:35 AM   #4
derchin
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Originally Posted by paiute View Post
A site called The Economic Collapse Blog has a pessimistic outlook? Do tell.
I see what I did wrong. My mistake.
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Old 22nd May 2012, 08:48 PM   #5
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I didn't read it all, the first paragraph was full of propaganda. Obama stole 5 trillion.

You can often say to people who write those things, ever hear of Keynesian economics? or macro economics? Or debt load versus GDP and M1 and M2 capital.

The response is often Huh?

The big cheese's who run this freak show only care about percentages. It's all that matters, media loves big ugly numbers though.
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Old 22nd May 2012, 09:02 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by derchin View Post
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

Keeps everyone up to date with the latest news on the national (U.S) and global economy.

Tilts to the "doomsday" spectrum, in my opinion.
I think you meant to say "news".
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Old 22nd May 2012, 11:49 PM   #7
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I think GFC2 is definitely here, but the question is whether it will be as bad as GFC1.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 07:52 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Demografix View Post
I think GFC2 is definitely here, but the question is whether it will be as bad as GFC1.
Looking at Google gdp charts, USA was packing on about a trillion $$$ every 4 years going back 2 decades,
then when the recession started, the losses versus rebound from 2008 to now if following the trend means America lost 1 year worth of annual growth of roughly 2% to 3%.
And America added on how many trillions in debt.
Add on the fact gdp growth is still behind another half trillion or so dollars, add on the additional debt.
it wouldn't be unfair to say the recession has just come to a end finally and it likely punched a 4% to 6% hole in the country balance sheets on all levels of budgeting.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 09:15 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
it wouldn't be unfair to say the recession has just come to a end finally and it likely punched a 4% to 6% hole in the country balance sheets on all levels of budgeting.
*coughing and spluttering* ..do what? is this what you really believe? then I believe you are in for a big shock imminently.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 11:23 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
*coughing and spluttering* ..do what? is this what you really believe? then I believe you are in for a big shock imminently.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 12:09 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
always a pleasure to see my favourite dumb dog put in an appearance

here's a more picture more relevant to the thread.

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Last edited by kevsta; 23rd May 2012 at 12:13 PM.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 12:23 PM   #12
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I liked the colors, even though I didn't bother reading it.

But whatever calamity it predicts, I bet it's gonna happen Any Day Now(tm)!!!111!!11!!
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Old 23rd May 2012, 01:09 PM   #13
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it's ok, don't worry, you're more of a visual person than a Conceptualizer (TM) anyway aren't you?

its funny you should show up actually, I thought of you today when I read this.

look what those evil spectators are doing with your favourite crony capitalist
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Old 23rd May 2012, 01:24 PM   #14
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'Crash Alert'

By Mike Whitney

"""May 23, 2012 -- As you might have noticed, the stock market is falling like a stone. As of 9 AM PST, the Dow Jones has dropped 172 points while all the other indices are down sharply. German 2-year debt (bund) has dipped below 0% this morning at auction, signalling an acceleration in the bank run taking place in southern Europe. Depositors in Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc would rather take a loss on their investment, then risk not their money back at all. The European Central Bank (ECB) does not guarantee deposits, so people are withdrawing their money en masse and getting out of Dodge pronto. What we're seeing is a real-time panic.

The ostensible trigger for the panic is known, but you won't read about it in the financial media where the news is dumbed down to the point of incoherence. What's really going on is that the German central bank (The Bundesbank) has indicated that it's ready to pull the plug on Greece which means that future bailouts will probably not be forthcoming. That's bad. It means that Greece will run out of money some time in June; their banking system will implode, and the "birthplace of democracy" will be reduced to 3rd world status overnight. Here's a blurb from the Bundesbank's communique:

"Current developments in Greece are extremely worrying. Greece is threatening not to implement the reform and consolidation measures that were agreed in return for the large-scale aid programmes.

This jeopardises the continued provision of assistance. Greece would have to bear the consequences of such a scenario. ...
"""
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Old 23rd May 2012, 01:26 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
I didn't read it all, the first paragraph was full of propaganda. Obama stole 5 trillion.
Yeah, and elsewhere they whine about the dollar losing 95% (or whatever) of its purchasing power since the Fed was created. If that doesn't set off your kook detector, it's broken.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 01:28 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
*coughing and spluttering* ..do what? is this what you really believe? then I believe you are in for a big shock imminently.
I said come to a end, I didn't say there was growth. I'm saying the massive losses in north america has stopped.

Still doesn't mean in 2 months round 2 starts due to europe.

You may notice I said the 2 to 3% growth is rather pathetic.(somehwere on here lol)

Last edited by KevinCanada; 23rd May 2012 at 01:39 PM.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 01:39 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
Yeah, and elsewhere they whine about the dollar losing 95% (or whatever) of its purchasing power since the Fed was created. If that doesn't set off your kook detector, it's broken.
Yeah, the ones who make that argument while it's true it has devalued 95% or whatever. They always forget to mention, that we have 95 times more dollars (pulled that number out thin air but hey ) to spend which makes up for it.

Things may cost more, but we are paid more. Now if our average wage was still $3.00 a week or whatever it was when the federal reserve first started, then ya the 95% devalue argument would be true, as you could only buy 2 bottles of soda for that.

If you go back to when a dollar was worth a dollar, how many people had clean drinking water, and big houses. more like they lived in shack, now everyone has access to clean drinking water, better education.

The dollar mongers (ron paul) never do a quality of life comparison versus dollar value.

Last edited by KevinCanada; 23rd May 2012 at 01:40 PM.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 01:44 PM   #18
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Yeah, it may well be true, but it has no real-world relevance whatsoever. Except maybe among those who think hiding money under a mattress should be a viable investment strategy.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 02:05 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
Yeah, and elsewhere they whine about the dollar losing 95% (or whatever) of its purchasing power since the Fed was created. If that doesn't set off your kook detector, it's broken.
The dollar has also lost 95% (or whatever) of its purchasing power since the Model T came out. It's lost 50% (or whatever) since television was invented. It's lost 20% (or whatever) since the first Space Shuttle went into orbit.

All equally as relevant. But for kooks, there are connections to be made!
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Old 23rd May 2012, 02:06 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
it's ok, don't worry, you're more of a visual person than a Conceptualizer (TM) anyway aren't you?

its funny you should show up actually, I thought of you today when I read this.

look what those evil spectators are doing with your favourite crony capitalist
zh;dr
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Old 23rd May 2012, 02:17 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
I didn't read it all, the first paragraph was full of propaganda. Obama stole 5 trillion.
If it's the same article - then it actually says 'Obama lies' when he suggests the economy is improving as it's being propped up by a $5trl of stimulus (tho' that's actually the increased debt figure). So you seem to have misread the article.


Quote:
You can often say to people who write those things, ever hear of Keynesian economics? or macro economics? Or debt load versus GDP and M1 and M2 capital.

The response is often Huh?
WTF ? The article ASSUMES agreement with modern Keynesian policy. It assumes that government spending is stimulative and that that decreased gov spending is recessionary.

Yes the website selects negative news and then exaggerates it. It's childish and distorted. However your biased misinterpretations are at least as ridiculous.


Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
Looking at Google gdp charts, USA was packing on about a trillion $$$ every 4 years going back 2 decades,
then when the recession started, the losses versus rebound from 2008 to now if following the trend means America lost 1 year worth of annual growth of roughly 2% to 3%.
And America added on how many trillions in debt.
Add on the fact gdp growth is still behind another half trillion or so dollars, add on the additional debt.

it wouldn't be unfair to say the recession has just come to a end finally and it likely punched a 4% to 6% hole in the country balance sheets on all levels of budgeting.
Roughly true - except that many factors especially including Keynesian policy drove the Federal debt from ~10Trl to 15Trl in under 4 years and that is NOT a 4-6% change. It's a 50% change.

Bond yields are at near historic lows. A rational policy would be for the fed to buy up ST&Intermediate (~<10yr ) term bonds and re-issue 30yr debt to lock in today's low rates. The problem is that's too expensive, with 105% of GDP as debt and growing at 6% of GDP for the foreseeable future, interest payments on our (~5yr avg maturity, ~0.8% yield) debt only shaves off <1% from any potential growth. If all that debt was switched to 30yr (~2.8%yield) we lose ~2.9% annual of GDP growth - which is about all the growth we might reasonably expect on average.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 02:47 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
I said come to a end, I didn't say there was growth. I'm saying the massive losses in north america has stopped.
so not up to another 20% off housing this year with possibly 35% to come still?

Mr Schiller (and me) disagree.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/93205...t-in-2012.html
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Old 23rd May 2012, 02:51 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
zh;dr
shame, its just about the only thing I've ever read about him that I was interested in.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 04:21 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by stevea View Post
If it's the same article - then it actually says 'Obama lies' when he suggests the economy is improving as it's being propped up by a $5trl of stimulus (tho' that's actually the increased debt figure). So you seem to have misread the article.




WTF ? The article ASSUMES agreement with modern Keynesian policy. It assumes that government spending is stimulative and that that decreased gov spending is recessionary.

Yes the website selects negative news and then exaggerates it. It's childish and distorted. However your biased misinterpretations are at least as ridiculous.




Roughly true - except that many factors especially including Keynesian policy drove the Federal debt from ~10Trl to 15Trl in under 4 years and that is NOT a 4-6% change. It's a 50% change.

Bond yields are at near historic lows. A rational policy would be for the fed to buy up ST&Intermediate (~<10yr ) term bonds and re-issue 30yr debt to lock in today's low rates. The problem is that's too expensive, with 105% of GDP as debt and growing at 6% of GDP for the foreseeable future, interest payments on our (~5yr avg maturity, ~0.8% yield) debt only shaves off <1% from any potential growth. If all that debt was switched to 30yr (~2.8%yield) we lose ~2.9% annual of GDP growth - which is about all the growth we might reasonably expect on average.
I did not say debt grew 4 to 6 percent. I said it appears that the difference in what was versus what should of been growth wise was I felt probably around a 4% to 6% hole as capital for the country as a whole versus what it should of been over the same time period. In the form of GDP it would likely translate into several trillion dollars.

You have also missed were I said "I did not read the article" because the first paragraph was propaganda.

Furthermore The fed has also been doing behind the scenes quantitative easing which throws all the numbers off.

It is posted on their website I will see if I can find it in bit and will post again regarding it.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 04:30 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
so not up to another 20% off housing this year with possibly 35% to come still?

Mr Schiller (and me) disagree.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/93205...t-in-2012.html
Haven't viewed the article yet. I'm speaking regarding the country as a whole, not one sector. If my memory serves me correctly the housing fallout was a 2 phase situation. phase 1 was the immediate defaults which we are all familiar with.

phase 2, were defaults that were to happen several years in the future (which is now). Reason for the 2nd wave of defaults was people had locked in with teaser rates for X number of years, then they see a big interest spike as per their contractual agreement. When the jump in interest rates hit a 2nd wave of defaults is expected to occur.

Which will obviously hurt housing prices again. after phase two is done then there should be some normalization.

Now this part is rumour, apparently banks are still sitting on properties hence the lingering dips in prices.
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Old 23rd May 2012, 04:40 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
Haven't viewed the article yet. I'm speaking regarding the country as a whole, not one sector. If my memory serves me correctly the housing fallout was a 2 phase situation. phase 1 was the immediate defaults which we are all familiar with.

phase 2, were defaults that were to happen several years in the future (which is now). Reason for the 2nd wave of defaults was people had locked in with teaser rates for X number of years, then they see a big interest spike as per their contractual agreement. When the jump in interest rates hit a 2nd wave of defaults is expected to occur.

Which will obviously hurt housing prices again. after phase two is done then there should be some normalization.

Now this part is rumour, apparently banks are still sitting on properties hence the lingering dips in prices.
its not rumour, 2.5 million excess inventory above normal. that's what the interview is about, Schiller compiles the figures.

this was the full interview with Schiller debating a Pimco boss about housing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/93207...-shilling.html
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Old 23rd May 2012, 06:48 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
its not rumour, 2.5 million excess inventory above normal. that's what the interview is about, Schiller compiles the figures.

this was the full interview with Schiller debating a Pimco boss about housing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/93207...-shilling.html
They both have good arguments. They both did not address that the banks do not have to release these extra houses at the discounts they were discussing.
I think the bigger picture would be how much capital the banks have in reserve would determine what they are willing to let the properties go at. Also building permits and loans for the construction of new houses also plays a role. No way of denying the bank holds a few cards in this. To bad it was not addressed.

Keisel also said as I stated earlier (the economy is not in recession) Don't get me wrong, this does not mean growth or the elimination of bad pockets.
He also went on to say the Fed is gearing up to re-inflate. First I heard of it although I am not surprised it is possible they are expecting fallout from Europe and wish to shore up the defenses some.

Canada has announced they are expecting damage from Europe also this week.

Last edited by KevinCanada; 23rd May 2012 at 07:09 PM. Reason: typo
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Old 23rd May 2012, 07:05 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
Yeah, and elsewhere they whine about the dollar losing 95% (or whatever) of its purchasing power since the Fed was created. If that doesn't set off your kook detector, it's broken.

Your kook-detector detector seems to be broken ...

Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahaha!
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Old 23rd May 2012, 07:07 PM   #29
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As for the other data I said I try and find, I'm having some difficulty navigating the Federal Reserve website. I'll have to go off memory here.

For the recession in general they purchased 1 to 2 trillion $$$ in treasuries
They shored up the American banks capital by 2 trillion $$$
They did some form of debt or interest forgiveness to the sum of 1 trillion $$$ to Europe
They shored up banks around the world to the tune of 14 to 16 trillion $$$

This goes above and beyond the Federal Government bailout packages. The idea was to create a back stop to prevent further economic collapses from the housing damage and also to stop more banks from collapsing when they had to absorb the bad loans. Then the second reason for so much credit being added was to further fortify the banks bottom line to help promote the banks to loan more money. Ironically the solution to the cheap credit disaster (housing) was more cheap credit lol

Unfortunately with the numbers as big as they are, and they are HUGE! It still was not quite enough to really get things rolling again. Even though the banks were secured, there is still a lot of bad credit ratings out there stopping them from loaning. Now they are looking at round 3 of quantitative easing.

I blame half of it on greed and poor loan policies, I blame the other half on trade policies. Every dollar lost to china is a dollar against Americans credit rating. My belief is they need to bring the jobs back to truly stabilize.

Last edited by KevinCanada; 23rd May 2012 at 08:21 PM.
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Old 24th May 2012, 01:38 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
They both have good arguments. They both did not address that the banks do not have to release these extra houses at the discounts they were discussing.

I think the bigger picture would be how much capital the banks have in reserve would determine what they are willing to let the properties go at.
?? unless they go into the rentals business, when they have to sell them, they will be sold at prices the market will pay?

supply demand & the market will set the price as always
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Old 24th May 2012, 06:08 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
?? unless they go into the rentals business, when they have to sell them, they will be sold at prices the market will pay?

supply demand & the market will set the price as always
Yes. I'm in Canada and I work in housing. I know the banks here will sit on properties and to manipulate the price higher.

If the banks pull forsale signs on the a portion of the properties and only replenish the ones that are for sale as they are bought up. They now create a artificial demand and raise the price.
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Old 25th May 2012, 11:12 AM   #32
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Mark Faber - sees 100% probability of a global recession starting Q4 2012 / 2013

Quote:
"whenever everybody focuses on just one thing - Greece and Europe in this case - there are other things that are far more important - such as a meaningful slowdown in India and China - going on that are being ignored".

(asked) "You're not looking for a recession in the US are you?" Faber, in his calm, thoughtful way responds, "I think we will have a global recession late this year, early next year", to which a stunned Wapner asks for odds (surely 30%, 50%?) of this recession - "100% certainty"
.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000092487&play=1

I'm in agreement with him on most things. that flock of black swans on the horizon probably wont be the trigger, it will more likely be something out of the leftfield nobody's focused on.
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Old 25th May 2012, 08:59 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
Mark Faber - sees 100% probability of a global recession starting Q4 2012 / 2013

And what's his track record in terms of the accuracy of his past predictions? 75%? 50%? 25%? Anyone can make a prediction. So unless he has a track record of his predictions coming true to some statistically significant degree, then his predictions are no better than random guesses.
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Old 25th May 2012, 09:22 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Corsair 115 View Post
And what's his track record in terms of the accuracy of his past predictions? 75%? 50%? 25%? Anyone can make a prediction. So unless he has a track record of his predictions coming true to some statistically significant degree, then his predictions are no better than random guesses.
He told everyone in error to get out of the stock-market, one week before it collapsed in October 1987. He is someone to be listened to.
Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Faber

Mind you, he did get one wrong - have the USA started any wars in the last 3 years or so? Faber says that the USA will start a war to distract from the economy. That was in 2009 Ref http://georgewashington2.blogspot.co...r-to-help.html. Maybe he is talking about the USA threatening to attack Iran.

Earler this year he said
Quote:
"I think investors should start to think what investments will go down the least when there is massive wealth destruction," Faber says in the attached video clip from his office in Thailand. "I happen to believe that home prices in the south of the U.S., in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and so fourth, are relatively inexpensive compared to other asset prices."
Ref: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/break...183510307.html
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Old 25th May 2012, 11:15 PM   #35
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I highly doubt we will see a recession this year. maybe stagnant or pitiful growth, a full blown recession. I have to say unlikely. I am basing this on that all other recessions had triggers associated with them.

- The bursting of a bubble economy in a sector(s).
- Banking policy's that failed and restricted the circulation of money
- War

None of the major recession triggers exist presently that I can see. Europe is problematic, It's been problematic for sometime. Not like we can get much more in the terms of worse news from them. China slowing i believe is actually a positive for the American and Canadian economies. Raise there currency value and bring those jobs back home.

All the opposite is true. Wars are coming to a end. Banking policies improved. Banks and corporations are full of flush cash that is burning holes in their pockets. There is no sectors in a bubble presently. Well there is the Facebook IPO. Umm lets not go there
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Old 26th May 2012, 12:34 AM   #36
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isnt it strange how 2 people can look at the same situation and see completely different things. working through your post point by point..

Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
I highly doubt we will see a recession this year. maybe stagnant or pitiful growth, a full blown recession. I have to say unlikely. I am basing this on that all other recessions had triggers associated with them.

- The bursting of a bubble economy in a sector(s).
- Banking policy's that failed and restricted the circulation of money
- War

None of the major recession triggers exist presently that I can see.
there are housing bubbles all over the world, just looking for a pin.

tech (and equities in general) are in a major bubble inflated by QE - FB will be looked back as the peak of this one, ala Pets.com in 2000

banking policies are no different, nothing has been fixed, the TBTFs just got bigger and more dangerous and added another 100 trillion in Derivatives globally

war is omnipresent, the US will never stop warmongering through choice. the military budget is set to grow into perpetuity, or until it just cant anymore.

Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
Europe is problematic, It's been problematic for sometime. Not like we can get much more in the terms of worse news from them.
lol. oh yes you can. Greece is tiny, wait until Spain & Italy start to teeter. the world is so interconnected now there will be banks blowing up all over the place if Europe doesnt get to grips with itself shortly (and it doesnt look likely anyone can do anything about it)

Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
China slowing i believe is actually a positive for the American and Canadian economies. Raise there currency value and bring those jobs back home.
Are Canada & Aus not very dependent on mining revenue from the booming Chinese? and you are deluding yourself if you think China are going to raise exchange rates as they grind into a housing crunch and bubble pop over there.

they will devalue, not the other way around. this is how currency wars play out, everybody takes turns to devalue, nobody wins.

Originally Posted by KevinCanada View Post
All the opposite is true. Wars are coming to a end. Banking policies improved.

Banks and corporations are full of flush cash that is burning holes in their pockets. There is no sectors in a bubble presently. Well there is the Facebook IPO. Umm lets not go there
would you mind telling me which wars are ending and banking policies are improved?

all I see bond market and USD bubbles, a tech bubble, global housing bubbles the global economy is on life support (ZIRP) and would croak immediately we remove it.

I made a predictions thread in Jan going into more details.

from it:

Quote:
So in essence, I think 2012 will be the year that the wheels properly come off the central planners carts and everybody can finally see and accept:

That we (the global economy) are not recovering, and are not likely to before taking some real hardship.

That we are in fact now in year 4 of what will eventually be known as "The Greater Depression" - Schiff has been saying this for at least 18 months now, and even Krugman finally caught on a few weeks ago, this year the pretence will end for everyone else too.

That we are in a massive and unavoidable debt bubble collapse and de-leveraging, and an ongoing implosion of the western world shadow banking system, and trillions in debt writedowns of one form or another are the only real way out of it.

That housing is still overvalued in many places - http://www.economist.com/node/21540231

Quote:
Quote:
Based on the average of the two measures, home prices are overvalued by about 25% or more in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, New Zealand, Britain, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden
Europe will not hold together "as-is" - that which is not sustainable, will not be sustained. Greece & Portugal cannot remain in the current system as-is.

There will be real defaults, as there is a €4-6 Trillion hole in the European balance sheet. This will cross the Atlantic and infect the US banking system again via the Trillions of exposure in derivatives, making it absolutely clear to the US that they cannot and will not be "decoupling" from Europe's problems and growing their way out of anything just yet.

In a nutshell, it all has to get much worse, before it can even think about starting to recover.
and I dont see anything that fails to confirm any of this, it looks more certain to me by the day.
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Old 26th May 2012, 01:23 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
He told everyone in error to get out of the stock-market, one week before it collapsed in October 1987. He is someone to be listened to.
Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Faber
So did Robert Prechter. Anyone is a guru if you only count hits, and since Faber has been all over the place the last few years, he's bound to score some.
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Old 26th May 2012, 01:34 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
He told everyone in error to get out of the stock-market, one week before it collapsed in October 1987.
A good call, but how did he know that the market was going to collapse right then? Many people knew that the market was unsustainable and a correction would occur sooner or later, but few were willing to put a date on it. So did he have inside information, a better method of predicting crashes, or did he just get lucky?

I am not so much interested in what he is predicting, as in how he is doing it. If he is serious then I presume he has some method of analyzing the market which gives very specific results. But if it involves the equivalent of examining chicken entrails, or if he just 'believes' that certain catastrophic things will happen, then he should not be listened to.

Quote:
Faber, in his calm, thoughtful way responds, "I think we will have a global recession late this year, early next year", to which a stunned Wapner asks for odds (surely 30%, 50%?) of this recession - "100% certainty"
100% certainty? Yeah right!

Originally Posted by kevsta
I made a prediction... That we are in fact now in year 4 of what will eventually be known as "The Greater Depression"
Things will have to get a hell of a lot worse before they get as bad as the Great Depression, so what do you mean by "The Greater Depression". Do you think it will be worse, or just in some way comparable to the 1930's?

Quote:
I dont see anything that fails to confirm any of this, it looks more certain to me by the day.
When do think it will reach bottom, and just how bad do you think it will get (eg. compared to the Great Depression)?
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Old 26th May 2012, 02:02 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
So did Robert Prechter. Anyone is a guru if you only count hits, and since Faber has been all over the place the last few years, he's bound to score some.
haha, true, and Prechter has been wrong ever since.

Mark is on my list of "listen to" analysts and managers, nobody is right all the time, and as he says, market timing is very difficult, but when he says 100% probability - that's a pretty big call to make if it isn't certain isn't it? you rarely hear analysts say 100% probability of anything.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
A good call, but how did he know that the market was going to collapse right then? Many people knew that the market was unsustainable and a correction would occur sooner or later, but few were willing to put a date on it. So did he have inside information, a better method of predicting crashes, or did he just get lucky?
his wiki entry quotes him as attributing it to luck.

Quote:
Faber is famous for advising his clients to get out of the stock market one week before the October 1987 crash.[11][12] However Faber said that this prediction was "accidental". He lost money shorting US stocks in 1999 although his call was later vindicated. He admits that market timing is very difficult. Nevertheless, his market advice since 2000 is quite accurate. Faber predicted the rise of oil, precious metals, other commodities, emerging markets, and especially China in his book Tomorrow's Gold: Asia's Age of Discovery. He also correctly predicted the slide of the U.S. dollar since 2002[13] and the 5/06 and 2/07 mini-corrections. He stated that there are few value investments available, except for farmland and real estate in some emerging markets like Russia, Paraguay, and Uruguay.[9] He believed in early 2007 that a major market correction was "imminent." (Fox News, 2-2007); however, by 5/2007 he was saying that U.S. equities were moderately overvalued — less so than those of emerging markets.
Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
I am not so much interested in what he is predicting, as in how he is doing it. If he is serious then I presume he has some method of analyzing the market which gives very specific results. But if it involves the equivalent of examining chicken entrails, or if he just 'believes' that certain catastrophic things will happen, then he should not be listened to.

100% certainty? Yeah right!
I would say that ultimately the real debt bubble collapse (as opposed to the warm up in 08/09) is a 100% mathematical certainty, but I wouldn't want to put a date on that, 5, 10 years, who knows how long the bubble blowers can keep pumping more hopium (unpayable debt) into the still twitching body.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Things will have to get a hell of a lot worse before they get as bad as the Great Depression, so what do you mean by "The Greater Depression". Do you think it will be worse, or just in some way comparable to the 1930's?

When do think it will reach bottom, and just how bad do you think it will get (eg. compared to the Great Depression)?
I think it will play out for the best part of the next decade. think of 2008 as 1929. 4 years after the start of the crisis we now have systemic insolvency in almost every major government around the world, and the banking system have gambled 000's of times the GDP of their host countries with each other in imaginary wealth, that will one day not be paid.

we are surrounded by a massive flock of circling black swans and a potential perfect storm, the markets threaten to collapse (and surge again) daily based on the latest QE rumours, the valuations are not real.

if I were religious, I would actually be praying.
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Old 26th May 2012, 03:11 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
think of 2008 as 1929. 4 years after the start of the crisis
So we are now in 1933? That was when the Great Depression hit rock bottom, with US unemployment at 25%, over 5000 failed banks, and hundreds of thousands of homeless people living in shanty towns.

I see signs of recovery now, so I guess that means that we have also hit rock bottom. But where is the massive unemployment, the collapsed banking system, industrial output down 46%, foreign trade down 70%, millions of people starving? Are these things still to come, or is it not going to get that bad?

Quote:
we now have systemic insolvency in almost every major government around the world, and the banking system have gambled 000's of times the GDP
Which countries have banks trading "000's of times" their GDP, and why is this a problem?

Quote:
we are surrounded by a massive flock of circling black swans and a potential perfect storm, the markets threaten to collapse (and surge again) daily based on the latest QE rumours, the valuations are not real.
I don't think it's as bad as you are making out. The difference between the 1930's and now is that we are much more aware of what is happening globally, governments are being more proactive, and markets are able to respond more accurately. This does make for greater short-term volatility, but it's easier to weather a lot of brief storms than one big long one. I think it will take several years for the markets to sort themselves out, but the worst is over, and it's not nearly as bad as some people are trying to suggest.

My father grew up during the 1930's, and what he described was way worse than anything I have experienced, living in the same city today. In fact, if it wasn't for the news media constantly reminding us how bad everything is, I wouldn't have even noticed that there was a problem!
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