[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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Jabba

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Jabba
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Feb 23, 2012
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- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba
 
Jabba said:
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba
Click to expand...

I could probably construct a logically sound argument that city buses do not exist.

Would you then walk in front of one?
 
Jabba said:
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba
Click to expand...

Prior evidence of anybody being immortal = 0
Evidence that we are bound to die , if only because of the way DNA reproduce during cell division = pretty much all we know on biology
Evidence that the universe will die a "heat death" and be unable to support life = plenty

*twiddle thumb* now I am waiting impatiently for your mathematical proof of immortality.
 
Good to see that your posting habits haven't changed, Jabba. You create a brand new thread and in the OP, rather than saying what you created the thread to say, you tell everybody that you will, at some indeterminate point in the future, post something connected to what it is that you want to say.

I wait your next post, in which you give us a bullet-pointed list as to why you're not saying what you want to say, but will any day now, honest, with baited breath.
 
Jabba said:
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.--- Jabba
Click to expand...


I hope you're not going to pretend this is some kind of courtroom in this thread too.

Statisticians will not be happy.
 
Go on then, Jabba, present your proof.

I don't know if you've noticed that nobody actually *is* immortal, though.
 
Even money on the Wandering Jew, he will be around until the second coming, therefore immortal.
 
It wouldn't surprise me, Dafydd. Mind you, the thread was started over an hour ago and Jabba hasn't posted what ought to have been the opening post yet.
 
Agatha said:
It wouldn't surprise me, Dafydd. Mind you, the thread was started over an hour ago and Jabba hasn't posted what ought to have been the opening post yet.
Click to expand...

Don't worry, he will be back to tell us that he will be telling us that he will be posting the proof, sometime. This is just to distract our attention from his failed shroud thread.
 
Jabba said:
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba
Click to expand...


The one at

Jabba said:
Resume,
- Obviously, this will only meet with derision, but I can't resist pointing it out anyway -- I'm actually a certified Statistician, and LOVE probability. Take a look at
...messiahornot.com/ACT2Scene1.ph,
...messiahornot.com/Act2Scene2.ph and
...messiahornot.com/Virtually1.php
-- if you dare.
--- Jabba
Click to expand...


You could start by answering the question I asked in the shroud thread:

Humots said:
By the way, if you are actually using Bayes' Theorem in your argument, shouldn't the initial formula for your probability be (assuming P(NR) + P(R) = 1.0)

P(NR|me & k) = P(me & k|NR)P(NR) / (P(me & k|NR)P(NR) + P(me & k|R)P(R))?
Click to expand...


If so, how do you get from that expression to the one in your argument:

P(NR|me & k) = P(me|NR)P(NR|k) / (P(me|NR)P(NR|k) + P(me|R)P(R|k))

Also, can you tell us a bit about being a certified Statistician? Like what courses are required, and what organization does the certifying?
 
Humots said:
The one at




You could start by answering the question I asked in the shroud thread:




If so, how do you get from that expression to the one in your argument:

P(NR|me & k) = P(me|NR)P(NR|k) / (P(me|NR)P(NR|k) + P(me|R)P(R|k))

Also, can you tell us a bit about being a certified Statistician? Like what courses are required, and what organization does the certifying?
Click to expand...

Silence, while frantic googling takes place.
 
I will give it a shot:

I'z= B

You'z= A

Them'z=C

We'z=O

Us'z = N

Bacon is delicious hence people are immortal
 
Fantastic, Jabba.
I'm looking forward to seeing your definition of immortality.
 
StankApe said:
I will give it a shot:

I'z= B

You'z= A

Them'z=C

We'z=O

Us'z = N

Bacon is delicious hence people are immortal
Click to expand...

No, no, no, no, no.

A for horses.
B for mutton.
C for yourself.
D for dumb.
E for brick.
F for vescent.
G for police.
H for consent.
I for 1.
J for oranges.
K for resteraunt.
L for leather.
M for sis.
N for lope.
O for the wings of a dove.
P for relief.
Q for the loos.
R for mo.
S for you, bog off.
T for 2.
U for mism.
V for Espania.
W for a quid.
X for breakfast.
Y for mistress.
Z for wind.

I'm not sure of the formula, or the answer, but that's the definition of the terms.
 
Jabba said:
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba
Click to expand...

Okay,so do it.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
No, no, no, no, no.

A for horses.
B for mutton.
C for yourself.
D for dumb.
E for brick.
F for vescent.
G for police.
H for consent.
I for 1.
J for oranges.
K for resteraunt.
L for leather.
M for sis.
N for lope.
O for the wings of a dove.
P for relief.
Q for the loos.
R for mo.
S for you, bog off.
T for 2.
U for mism.
V for Espania.
W for a quid.
X for breakfast.
Y for mistress.
Z for wind.

I'm not sure of the formula, or the answer, but that's the definition of the terms.
Click to expand...
I know that as the Cockney alphabet. It should be read out loud.
A for horses
B for honey
C for ships
D for Baghdad
E for brick
F for vescent
G of police
H 'for beauty
I for Novello
J for oranges
K for tonight
L for leather
M for cream
N for a penny
O for the rainbow
P for relief
Q for the bus
R for minute
S for you
T for two
U for cheek
V for la France
W for it
X for breakfast
Y for gawd's sake
Z for breezes
 
I think you can prove anything using statistics.
In fact I have the data to prove it.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
No, no, no, no, no.

A for horses.
B for mutton.
C for yourself.
D for dumb.
E for brick.
F for vescent.
G for police.
H for consent.
I for 1.
J for oranges.
K for resteraunt.
L for leather.
M for sis.
N for lope.
O for the wings of a dove.
P for relief.
Q for the loos.
R for mo.
S for you, bog off.
T for 2.
U for mism.
V for Espania.
W for a quid.
X for breakfast.
Y for mistress.
Z for wind.

I'm not sure of the formula, or the answer, but that's the definition of the terms.
Click to expand...

I don't like spelling bacon that way at all. It makes me feel small and dumb and unimportant so it must be absolute tripe!
 
Since I last posted on this 'ere thread, I've:
  • Made some salted caramel (for ice cream, I'll make the custard tomorrow)
  • Been to fetch my youngest (17) from the local theatre, where he's been providing first-aid cover with the St John Ambulance
  • Watched the end of Crimewatch
  • Watched yesterday's episode of Elementary
  • Enjoyed a glass and a half of NZ Sauvignon Blanc
  • Stacked the dishwasher
  • Put the compost bin out for collection

Knock, knock! Jabba! Is this thing on? Where's that 'proof' you should have posted in your OP, three hours ago?
 
Agatha said:
Since I last posted on this 'ere thread, I've:
  • Made some salted caramel (for ice cream, I'll make the custard tomorrow)
  • Been to fetch my youngest (17) from the local theatre, where he's been providing first-aid cover with the St John Ambulance
  • Watched the end of Crimewatch
  • Watched yesterday's episode of Elementary
  • Enjoyed a glass and a half of NZ Sauvignon Blanc
  • Stacked the dishwasher
  • Put the compost bin out for collection

Knock, knock! Jabba! Is this thing on? Where's that 'proof' you should have posted in your OP, three hours ago?
Click to expand...

Hit and run post, he won't be back. or if he does grace us with his presence then you can be sure that his appearance will not be accompanied by any proof.
 
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P'raps he's found an error in his proofs and is rechecking them.

P'raps he's crafting a devastating argument.

P'raps you're right. :D

We may as well chat amongst ourselves.
 
Agatha said:
P'raps he's found an error in his proofs and is rechecking them.

P'raps he's crafting a devastating argument.

P'raps you're right. :D

We may as well chat amongst ourselves.
Click to expand...

If all goes according to the form book he will come back and tell us that he still has to collect the evidence, despite having worked on it for twenty years.
 
Agatha said:
Since I last posted on this 'ere thread, I've:
  • Made some salted caramel (for ice cream, I'll make the custard tomorrow)
  • Been to fetch my youngest (17) from the local theatre, where he's been providing first-aid cover with the St John Ambulance
  • Watched the end of Crimewatch
  • Watched yesterday's episode of Elementary
  • Enjoyed a glass and a half of NZ Sauvignon Blanc
  • Stacked the dishwasher
  • Put the compost bin out for collection

Knock, knock! Jabba! Is this thing on? Where's that 'proof' you should have posted in your OP, three hours ago?
Click to expand...

If he's right he has all eternity to post it.
 
TimCallahan said:
Okay,so do it.
Click to expand...


I think Jabba is going to present the argument he makes in the pages he linked to in post #3999 of the Shroud thread. See

forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=8757747#post8757747

Perhaps he has improved on this argument.
 
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I believe immortality would be more boring than waiting for Jabba to prove immortality.
 
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