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Old 21st November 2012, 01:29 PM   #1
Jabba
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[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba
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Old 21st November 2012, 01:34 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
No, you can't. Humans are not immortal. They die, you may not have noticed that, but they do.
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Old 21st November 2012, 01:48 PM   #3
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Quote:
....essentially prove....
That's kind of like sort of claim.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:01 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba
I could probably construct a logically sound argument that city buses do not exist.

Would you then walk in front of one?
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:06 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Resume View Post
I could probably construct a logically sound argument that city buses do not exist.

Would you then walk in front of one?
Only if dressed in a shroud.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:07 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba
Prior evidence of anybody being immortal = 0
Evidence that we are bound to die , if only because of the way DNA reproduce during cell division = pretty much all we know on biology
Evidence that the universe will die a "heat death" and be unable to support life = plenty

*twiddle thumb* now I am waiting impatiently for your mathematical proof of immortality.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:11 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post

*twiddle thumb* now I am waiting impatiently for your mathematical proof of immortality.
What's the betting that it will involve fake bloodstains?
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:13 PM   #8
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Good to see that your posting habits haven't changed, Jabba. You create a brand new thread and in the OP, rather than saying what you created the thread to say, you tell everybody that you will, at some indeterminate point in the future, post something connected to what it is that you want to say.

I wait your next post, in which you give us a bullet-pointed list as to why you're not saying what you want to say, but will any day now, honest, with baited breath.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:15 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba

I hope you're not going to pretend this is some kind of courtroom in this thread too.

Statisticians will not be happy.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:16 PM   #10
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Go on then, Jabba, present your proof.

I don't know if you've noticed that nobody actually *is* immortal, though.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:17 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
....with baited breath.
Bated breath. Unless you've been eating worms, maggots or other baits, in which case baited would be appropriate.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:18 PM   #12
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Even money on the Wandering Jew, he will be around until the second coming, therefore immortal.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:24 PM   #13
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It wouldn't surprise me, Dafydd. Mind you, the thread was started over an hour ago and Jabba hasn't posted what ought to have been the opening post yet.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:25 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
It wouldn't surprise me, Dafydd. Mind you, the thread was started over an hour ago and Jabba hasn't posted what ought to have been the opening post yet.
Don't worry, he will be back to tell us that he will be telling us that he will be posting the proof, sometime. This is just to distract our attention from his failed shroud thread.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:34 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba

The one at

Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Resume,
- Obviously, this will only meet with derision, but I can't resist pointing it out anyway -- I'm actually a certified Statistician, and LOVE probability. Take a look at
...messiahornot.com/ACT2Scene1.ph,
...messiahornot.com/Act2Scene2.ph and
...messiahornot.com/Virtually1.php
-- if you dare.
--- Jabba

You could start by answering the question I asked in the shroud thread:

Originally Posted by Humots View Post
By the way, if you are actually using Bayes' Theorem in your argument, shouldn't the initial formula for your probability be (assuming P(NR) + P(R) = 1.0)

P(NR|me & k) = P(me & k|NR)P(NR) / (P(me & k|NR)P(NR) + P(me & k|R)P(R))?

If so, how do you get from that expression to the one in your argument:

P(NR|me & k) = P(me|NR)P(NR|k) / (P(me|NR)P(NR|k) + P(me|R)P(R|k))

Also, can you tell us a bit about being a certified Statistician? Like what courses are required, and what organization does the certifying?
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:36 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Humots View Post
The one at




You could start by answering the question I asked in the shroud thread:




If so, how do you get from that expression to the one in your argument:

P(NR|me & k) = P(me|NR)P(NR|k) / (P(me|NR)P(NR|k) + P(me|R)P(R|k))

Also, can you tell us a bit about being a certified Statistician? Like what courses are required, and what organization does the certifying?
Silence, while frantic googling takes place.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:44 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
Bated breath. Unless you've been eating worms, maggots or other baits, in which case baited would be appropriate.
I DID enjoy some sour cream and onion crickets at a Halloween party. Not bad!
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:45 PM   #18
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I will give it a shot:

I'z= B

You'z= A

Them'z=C

We'z=O

Us'z = N

Bacon is delicious hence people are immortal
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:47 PM   #19
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Jokes about immortality never get old.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:56 PM   #20
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Fantastic, Jabba.
I'm looking forward to seeing your definition of immortality.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:58 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Olowkow View Post
That's kind of like sort of claim.
Almost pregnant.
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Old 21st November 2012, 02:59 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by StankApe View Post
I will give it a shot:

I'z= B

You'z= A

Them'z=C

We'z=O

Us'z = N

Bacon is delicious hence people are immortal
No, no, no, no, no.

A for horses.
B for mutton.
C for yourself.
D for dumb.
E for brick.
F for vescent.
G for police.
H for consent.
I for 1.
J for oranges.
K for resteraunt.
L for leather.
M for sis.
N for lope.
O for the wings of a dove.
P for relief.
Q for the loos.
R for mo.
S for you, bog off.
T for 2.
U for mism.
V for Espania.
W for a quid.
X for breakfast.
Y for mistress.
Z for wind.

I'm not sure of the formula, or the answer, but that's the definition of the terms.
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Old 21st November 2012, 03:03 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
- If this belongs in a different thread, or has already been done, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll present my case here.
--- Jabba
Okay,so do it.
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Old 21st November 2012, 03:18 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
No, no, no, no, no.

A for horses.
B for mutton.
C for yourself.
D for dumb.
E for brick.
F for vescent.
G for police.
H for consent.
I for 1.
J for oranges.
K for resteraunt.
L for leather.
M for sis.
N for lope.
O for the wings of a dove.
P for relief.
Q for the loos.
R for mo.
S for you, bog off.
T for 2.
U for mism.
V for Espania.
W for a quid.
X for breakfast.
Y for mistress.
Z for wind.

I'm not sure of the formula, or the answer, but that's the definition of the terms.
I know that as the Cockney alphabet. It should be read out loud.
A for horses
B for honey
C for ships
D for Baghdad
E for brick
F for vescent
G of police
H 'for beauty
I for Novello
J for oranges
K for tonight
L for leather
M for cream
N for a penny
O for the rainbow
P for relief
Q for the bus
R for minute
S for you
T for two
U for cheek
V for la France
W for it
X for breakfast
Y for gawd's sake
Z for breezes
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Old 21st November 2012, 03:22 PM   #25
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I think you can prove anything using statistics.
In fact I have the data to prove it.
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Old 21st November 2012, 03:37 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Soapy Sam View Post
I think you can prove anything using statistics.
In fact I have the data to prove it.
Yeah, but 67.25% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
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Old 21st November 2012, 03:38 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by dafydd View Post
D for Baghdad
Shouldn't that be T for Baghdad?

Quote:
I for Novello
Not heard that one before. Very funny.

Quote:
K for tonight
I don't get this one.

Quote:
M for cream
Or this.

Quote:
N for a penny
That's the one my mum always used to say. But my granddad said N for lope, and that always struck me as funnier.

Quote:
O for the rainbow
That's probably better than my one, although mine is more cockney.
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Old 21st November 2012, 03:42 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post


I don't get this one.



Or this.


'Kay for tonight (ok for tonight?]
M for cream-= Emva Cream sherry
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Emva-Cream-C.../dp/B0060MCDKC

There was a time when if you ordered a sherry in a London pub you would get Emva Cream.
It has to be deif of Baghdad to the leave the T for T for two.

Last edited by dafydd; 21st November 2012 at 03:48 PM.
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Old 21st November 2012, 03:53 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
No, no, no, no, no.

A for horses.
B for mutton.
C for yourself.
D for dumb.
E for brick.
F for vescent.
G for police.
H for consent.
I for 1.
J for oranges.
K for resteraunt.
L for leather.
M for sis.
N for lope.
O for the wings of a dove.
P for relief.
Q for the loos.
R for mo.
S for you, bog off.
T for 2.
U for mism.
V for Espania.
W for a quid.
X for breakfast.
Y for mistress.
Z for wind.

I'm not sure of the formula, or the answer, but that's the definition of the terms.
I don't like spelling bacon that way at all. It makes me feel small and dumb and unimportant so it must be absolute tripe!
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Old 21st November 2012, 03:54 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- I think that I can essentially prove immortality using Bayesian statistics.
I will bet you any amount of money that you cannot.
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Old 21st November 2012, 04:21 PM   #31
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Since I last posted on this 'ere thread, I've:
  • Made some salted caramel (for ice cream, I'll make the custard tomorrow)
  • Been to fetch my youngest (17) from the local theatre, where he's been providing first-aid cover with the St John Ambulance
  • Watched the end of Crimewatch
  • Watched yesterday's episode of Elementary
  • Enjoyed a glass and a half of NZ Sauvignon Blanc
  • Stacked the dishwasher
  • Put the compost bin out for collection

Knock, knock! Jabba! Is this thing on? Where's that 'proof' you should have posted in your OP, three hours ago?
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Old 21st November 2012, 04:22 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
Since I last posted on this 'ere thread, I've:
  • Made some salted caramel (for ice cream, I'll make the custard tomorrow)
  • Been to fetch my youngest (17) from the local theatre, where he's been providing first-aid cover with the St John Ambulance
  • Watched the end of Crimewatch
  • Watched yesterday's episode of Elementary
  • Enjoyed a glass and a half of NZ Sauvignon Blanc
  • Stacked the dishwasher
  • Put the compost bin out for collection

Knock, knock! Jabba! Is this thing on? Where's that 'proof' you should have posted in your OP, three hours ago?
Hit and run post, he won't be back. or if he does grace us with his presence then you can be sure that his appearance will not be accompanied by any proof.

Last edited by dafydd; 21st November 2012 at 04:23 PM.
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Old 21st November 2012, 04:31 PM   #33
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P'raps he's found an error in his proofs and is rechecking them.

P'raps he's crafting a devastating argument.

P'raps you're right.

We may as well chat amongst ourselves.
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Old 21st November 2012, 04:36 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
P'raps he's found an error in his proofs and is rechecking them.

P'raps he's crafting a devastating argument.

P'raps you're right.

We may as well chat amongst ourselves.
If all goes according to the form book he will come back and tell us that he still has to collect the evidence, despite having worked on it for twenty years.
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Old 21st November 2012, 05:42 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
Since I last posted on this 'ere thread, I've:
  • Made some salted caramel (for ice cream, I'll make the custard tomorrow)
  • Been to fetch my youngest (17) from the local theatre, where he's been providing first-aid cover with the St John Ambulance
  • Watched the end of Crimewatch
  • Watched yesterday's episode of Elementary
  • Enjoyed a glass and a half of NZ Sauvignon Blanc
  • Stacked the dishwasher
  • Put the compost bin out for collection

Knock, knock! Jabba! Is this thing on? Where's that 'proof' you should have posted in your OP, three hours ago?
If he's right he has all eternity to post it.
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Old 21st November 2012, 06:03 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by TimCallahan View Post
Okay,so do it.

I think Jabba is going to present the argument he makes in the pages he linked to in post #3999 of the Shroud thread. See

forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=8757747#post8757747

Perhaps he has improved on this argument.

Last edited by Humots; 21st November 2012 at 06:06 PM. Reason: Add Smiley
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Old 21st November 2012, 06:04 PM   #37
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Old 21st November 2012, 06:06 PM   #38
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Old 21st November 2012, 06:08 PM   #39
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Sorry, can't get the smiley right.
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Old 21st November 2012, 06:08 PM   #40
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I believe immortality would be more boring than waiting for Jabba to prove immortality.
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