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Tags airplane incidents , flight 370 , Malaysia incidents , Russia-Ukraine relations

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Old 17th July 2014, 08:31 AM   #1
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New Malaysian airlines crash

Amsterdam to KL Boeing 777 has reportedly crashed in Ukraine near the russian border. 280 passengers and 15 crew.

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Old 17th July 2014, 08:38 AM   #2
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Possibly shot down...
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Old 17th July 2014, 08:47 AM   #3
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Ooh boy. This could be very ugly.
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Old 17th July 2014, 08:51 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Possibly shot down...
yes, Interfax reported that. Early still, so I'll put it in the rumour category. Seems awfully coincidental though

ETA from BBC: An advisor to the Ukrainian interior minister, Anton Gerashenko, says the plane was flying at an altitude of 10,000 metres (33,000 feet) when it was "hit by a missile fired from a Buk launcher", in a post on his Facebook page, according to the Associated Press.
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Old 17th July 2014, 08:51 AM   #5
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This is the news story on Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0FM1TU20140717


Edit:

This story on business insider claims it was shot down and by what.

http://www.businessinsider.com/malay...#ixzz37k08Tj8I

Last edited by Daald; 17th July 2014 at 08:53 AM.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:10 AM   #6
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Could get very interesting. Ukraine has claimed a transport shot down yesterday was shotdown from Russian territory. Russians have denied it of course, but there is youtube video of surface to surface rocket launches from Russia in to Ukraine in the same area the plane went down
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:20 AM   #7
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BBC Livetext:
Quote:
17:15: [BST =GMT+1]
Interfax news agency quotes the Ukrainian presidential press service as saying that the Ukrainian armed forces were not involved in the Malaysian passenger plane "being brought down".
17:14
A Reuters reporter has reached the scene and has described seeing burning wreckage of the airplane, with bodies on the ground, the agency reports.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-28354787
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:24 AM   #8
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From Reuter, separatists claim Ukrainian forces shot it down.

As they would. US satellite monitoring should be able see any missile that can go to 10000m

BBC talking head expert says the rebels have the equipment to shoot one down - but probably not the equipment to identify what the plane was before shooting.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:28 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
From Reuter, separatists claim Ukrainian forces shot it down.

As they would. US satellite monitoring should be able see any missile that can go to 10000m

BBC talking head expert says the rebels have the equipment to shoot one down - but probably not the equipment to identify what the plane was before shooting.
No binoculars?!!?
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:29 AM   #10
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Cue John McCain blaming Obama in 3, 2 ... oops he already has.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:37 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
No binoculars?!!?
I think you'd need a deal of expertise to identify the difference between a military plane and a civilian plane at >10km with a pair of binoculars.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:38 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Cue John McCain blaming Obama in 3, 2 ... oops he already has.
seriously?
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:44 AM   #13
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The Buk air defense system goes by the NATO designations SA-11 Gadfly or SA-17 Grizzly, according to variant. It uses radar aquisition, semi-active radar guidance and some variants have an active radar terminal guidance. Semi-active radar uses a ground based transmitter to illuminate the target and a receiver in the missile to calculate the intercept. The range is in the order of 50km with a ceiling of 150,000 feet - medium range, high altitutde. The system is vehicle portable with good set up times - like 5-10 minutes.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:46 AM   #14
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Photos starting to come out on Russia Today twitter. Certainly suggest midair breakup. Some include bodies that are likely identifiable by friends and relatives, so caution advised.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:47 AM   #15
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My father is watching noted military expert Geraldo Rivera on Fox explaining weapons systems. I think I'll keep away from all news for a few hours till somebody actually has some news to report. The media is in full blather mode.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:48 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Travis View Post
Ooh boy. This could be very ugly.
The propaganda will be thick...

The flight originated in Amsterdam and was apparently full of Westerners.

My guess is that one side thought it was shooting down a plane from the other side and couldn't tell the difference.

Or the 777 was flying in the vicinity of the intended target.

An A380 was apparently behind the 777. The route is a well used A380 path.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:49 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
seriously?
Seriously.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:49 AM   #18
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Flying along and suddenly the airplane you're in is torn apart. The lucky ones die instantly while the rest plummet 33,000 feet into the ground.

What a horrible way to die.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:52 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
The propaganda will be thick...

The flight originated in Amsterdam and was apparently full of Westerners.

My guess is that one side thought it was shooting down a plane from the other side and couldn't tell the difference.

Or the 777 was flying in the vicinity of the intended target.

An A380 was apparently behind the 777. The route is a well used A380 path.
Yes, it's a standard international air corrider. Flown it myself.

It's been pointed out that the rebels have not (yet) had planes in the air, so doesn't make sense for the Ukrainians to shoot it down - especially when it's flying west to east.

Looking at pics from the scene it was definitely not a crash, wreckage and bodies spread over 15km, so definitely a mid-air explosion.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:53 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Seriously.
wow

got a link so I can be further disillusioned in humanity?
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:54 AM   #21
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Well, we can take photos from the ground, of planes at 10KM, with civilian cameras, and they are clearly identifiable. So, I'm not sure why the military couldn't identify a 777.

http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviatio.../3/2443380.jpg

http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviatio.../4/2446440.jpg

http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviatio.../1/2452164.jpg
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:56 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
BBC talking head expert says the rebels have the equipment to shoot one down - but probably not the equipment to identify what the plane was before shooting.
OK -- I see what they're saying here.

A professional air defese crew working within an IADS (such as Russian or Ukraine would have the ability to discriminate but a group of rebel forces may not have the training, infrastructure and experience. I would suggest that the IFF receiver even in a stand-alone system would be albe to detect a regular commercial airliner, but I can't really confirm that.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:57 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Polaris View Post
Flying along and suddenly the airplane you're in is torn apart. The lucky ones die instantly while the rest plummet 33,000 feet into the ground.

What a horrible way to die.

Don't start me.

This sounds horribly like the IR655 incident over the Straits of Hormuz in July 1988.

Rolfe.
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Old 17th July 2014, 09:59 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Well, we can take photos from the ground, of planes at 10KM, with civilian cameras, and they are clearly identifiable. So, I'm not sure why the military couldn't identify a 777.

http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviatio.../3/2443380.jpg

http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviatio.../4/2446440.jpg

http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviatio.../1/2452164.jpg
Because if it was the rebels with a shiny new SAM Launcher they will have tracked an aircraft coming in from the West and decided to have a shot. They won't have actually had a look at it.
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:00 AM   #25
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BBC reports on a report that the rebels do have fighter planes flown from Crimea and that that shouldn't be an excluded possibility.
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:01 AM   #26
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Quote:
A similar launcher was seen by AP journalists near the eastern Ukrainian town of Snizhne earlier Thursday.
That is apparently a reference to the AP reporting the presence of a missile launcher, presumably a buk launcher.

I can't find any more on that, though.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:01 AM   #27
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Commercial flights are now avoiding the area. Given 3 planes shot down in the area the week before, this should have already happened
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:02 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
I think you'd need a deal of expertise to identify the difference between a military plane and a civilian plane at >10km with a pair of binoculars.
It is pretty easy to distinguish different kinds of planes at cruising altitude with a pair of binoculars during the day with no clouds. Of course, it looks like the weather was partly cloudy today over the Donetsk region.
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:05 AM   #29
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Russian rebel leader apparently bragged about shooting down the plane - probably before knowing it was commercial -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bswg7UGCQAAtv47.jpg:large


Edited by LashL:  Changed hotlinked image to regular link. Please see Rule 5.
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:06 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Don't start me.

This sounds horribly like the IR655 incident over the Straits of Hormuz in July 1988.

Rolfe.
Well, the Aegis system correctly identified IR655 as a civilian plane by it's flight path and it correctly identified it's civilian beacon. It was the crew who decided Aegis was wrong...
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:07 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
Russian rebel leader apparently bragged about shooting down the plane - probably before knowing it was commercial -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bswg7UGCQAAtv47.jpg:large
Perhaps he just took credit for something he saw happen?
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:08 AM   #32
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Is there a translation of that, Icerat?
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:09 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
BBC reports on a report that the rebels do have fighter planes flown from Crimea and that that shouldn't be an excluded possibility.
Which would make it sound horribly like Korean Air 007 rather than IR655.

ETA: Here's the BBC feed: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-28354787
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:09 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by Newtons Bit View Post
Is there a translation of that, Icerat?
yeah, getting one.

ETA:

news from Strelkov Igor "We have just shot down AN-26 plane in Torez area, it is there somewhere behind "progress" mine. We have warned - "Do not fly in our sky!" Here is video that proves another "bird falling down". It fell down behind terricon (some artificial hill made of mining leftovers) and didn't hurt any civilians."
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:12 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
That is apparently a reference to the AP reporting the presence of a missile launcher, presumably a buk launcher.

I can't find any more on that, though.
NATO will have known about the acquisition radar in the past and seen the targeting radar turn on (and probably then the launch signature), as well as Russia and the Ukraine so I suggest there is little official doubt about the system origin. They may have to sort through some data since they are probably in an active EM enviornment. Getting the actual information released is another matter.
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:13 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Perhaps he just took credit for something he saw happen?
They've shot down 3 planes in the last week, AP journalists have seen them with the equipment to shoot a jet that high, and they brag about shooting down another one - what do you really think?
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:17 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
I think you'd need a deal of expertise to identify the difference between a military plane and a civilian plane at >10km with a pair of binoculars.
I agree. But if you can't tell the difference, don't shoot!
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:19 AM   #38
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The rebels may have known exactly what they were shooting at and succeeded.
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:19 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
They've shot down 3 planes in the last week, AP journalists have seen them with the equipment to shoot a jet that high, and they brag about shooting down another one - what do you really think?
I think, as I posted earlier, that I still want to find that report from AP journalists about the buk launcher they saw...
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 17th July 2014, 10:20 AM   #40
icerat
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
The rebels may have known exactly what they were shooting at and succeeded.
The tweet indicates they thought they'd shot down a military jet


Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
I think, as I posted earlier, that I still want to find that report from AP journalists about the buk launcher they saw...
oh sorry - found it but didn't keep it. June 29 they captured a BUK if I recall

ETA: Here you go, rebels bragged about that too.
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Last edited by icerat; 17th July 2014 at 10:21 AM.
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