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Old 28th September 2015, 03:18 PM   #41
dudalb
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
New York is full of guys like Donald Trump. They spell "belief" with an 'o' as in o-p-p-o-r-t-u-n-i-t-y. Like a former boss of mine once said, referring to charges and counter-charges being hurled between warring departments (within the same company): "We believe what we need to believe when we need to believe it. When the situation changes, we believe something else." This was his response after I objected (in private) to a statement he had made about another department. He said they had done x-y-z and it just about destroyed a business project we were involved in. I said to him, "But Boss...ummm, I don't think they really did that." First words out of his mouth were, spoken with a big grin, "That doesn't matter. We believe they did it." Then he winked and explained to me, "We believe what we need to believe yada-yada-yada"

Donald Trump is from the same corporate culture. Even worse actually because he's a New York real estate developer. They are the absolute worst when it comes to ethics or integrity.
Trump reminds me more then a little of Professor Harold Hill trying to unload cheap band instruments and uniforms on a Small Iowa Town....
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Old 28th September 2015, 04:35 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Trump reminds me more then a little of Professor Harold Hill trying to unload cheap band instruments and uniforms on a Small Iowa Town....
Oh, come now, Dudalb.
Harold Hill, the main character from the Music Man, is a well-dressed, fast-talking, out-of-town chisler who becomes popular by emphasizing trouble while promising to cure it with a return to traditional values. He lies about his qualifications and when caught in these lies he either distracts people or tells even bigger lies. On the other hand, Donald Trump is... is....

Um, how does the post-delete function work, again?
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Old 28th September 2015, 05:06 PM   #43
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If it wasn't for all the hot air Trump would just be an empty suit.
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Old 23rd October 2015, 04:34 AM   #44
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Second Iowa poll (Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics) confirms Carson's big lead over Trump from prior poll (Quinnipiac).

This is the moment this thread has been waiting for. I'm not saying that Trump is entering his tailspin phase, but the dominance may finally be in wane. The real test is will there be someone other than Carson to put a chink in the Trump armor.
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Old 23rd October 2015, 04:42 AM   #45
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"This is the moment this thread has been waiting for"?

Hmmm, sounds familiar.
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Old 23rd October 2015, 05:08 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
"This is the moment this thread has been waiting for"?

Hmmm, sounds familiar.

Maybe, but something is different this time. Trump has led in every major poll since late June. Now he's getting clobbered in 2 successive Iowa polls. That's an unfamiliar circumstance.
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Old 23rd October 2015, 06:59 AM   #47
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Wow, I am ahead of the times, or what? Here's a Politico article about how 81% of GOP "insiders" think Trump is more likely now than one month ago to be the nominee.

I think they're just becoming accustomed to the idea that he's been the consistent and uncontested leader for lo these many months. They're not thinking about the pendulum swings to come.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...-likely-215087
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Old 23rd October 2015, 09:13 AM   #48
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Reality is landing on Trump, mussing up his hair.

Trump super PAC is shutting down, amidst evidence of cooperation with Trump campaign.

Quote:
Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s campaign manager, has insisted that Trump has never blessed or worked with a super PAC, although recent FEC filings revealed that the campaign directed hard dollars to two Colorado-based companies both affiliated with Ciletti.
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Old 23rd October 2015, 09:52 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by hgc View Post
Maybe, but something is different this time. Trump has led in every major poll since late June. Now he's getting clobbered in 2 successive Iowa polls. That's an unfamiliar circumstance.
Maybe. The problem is that Trump, in contrast to candidates like Carson and Fiorina (and Bernie Sanders on the Dem side) has virtually unlimited financial resources to draw from. He apparently also has already built out a solid campaign infrastructure at the primary and caucus level. I can't really see a non-establishment candidate competing with that. Either Bush or Rubio catch fire, and they're running out of time, or Trump is going to be the nominee.
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Old 23rd October 2015, 11:00 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by sunmaster14 View Post
Maybe. The problem is that Trump, in contrast to candidates like Carson and Fiorina (and Bernie Sanders on the Dem side) has virtually unlimited financial resources to draw from. He apparently also has already built out a solid campaign infrastructure at the primary and caucus level. I can't really see a non-establishment candidate competing with that. Either Bush or Rubio catch fire, and they're running out of time, or Trump is going to be the nominee.

He has the money, absolutely. The question is: Is he willing to spend it?

The other thing is -- the GOP establishment (the donor class) are not at all thrilled with his ideas about the carried interest exemption. Only Club for Growth has been running attack ads against Trump so far. Wait until they all start coming after him. They'll blanket the airwaves in Iowa and New Hampshire, defining him with a host of negatives -- and they don't even have to make up a bunch of lies either.

I'm not saying that Trump can't be the nominee, but I do still think it's less than likely.
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Old 23rd October 2015, 12:27 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by hgc View Post
He has the money, absolutely. The question is: Is he willing to spend it?

The other thing is -- the GOP establishment (the donor class) are not at all thrilled with his ideas about the carried interest exemption. Only Club for Growth has been running attack ads against Trump so far. Wait until they all start coming after him. They'll blanket the airwaves in Iowa and New Hampshire, defining him with a host of negatives -- and they don't even have to make up a bunch of lies either.

I'm not saying that Trump can't be the nominee, but I do still think it's less than likely.
I think the Donor class has been holding off out of hope that Trump would self destruct without the need for the PTB in the GOP taking a active role. Reason for this concern that if Trump felt he had not been treated "fairly" by the GOP he would run an an independent. (The Donor class thinking that Trump's pledge not to do that is not worth the paper it is written on....and IMHO they are 1000% right to think that).
But I think the Donor class is coming to think that if Trump does not get the nomination he will run and an Indy regardless of circumstances, and in the next couple of weeks they will really open fire.
ANd, in the end, they can simply point to the polls...nominatng Trump almost guarntees a Democratic win next November.
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Old 27th October 2015, 06:42 PM   #52
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Slowly, slowly the raison d'être of this thread picks up steam. Now a national poll puts Ben Carson on top, putting Make America Great Again into second place. It's the CNN/New York Times poll, and it has the kooky doctor up 26 - 22 over Mr. Trump. This, on top of 4 straight Iowa polls with similar positions.

Now Trump is begging his Iowa audiences: "Can we get these numbers up, please?"

My favorite though: As I was torturing myself with Morning Joe this morning, I decided to stick with it as Trump made his regular call-in. He was asked by Mark Halperin about the inconsistency of citing of polls where he's ahead and ragging on polls where he's behind. The answer is a study in blustery gibberish.

Quote:
Halperin: "... When you're ahead in the polls, you cite them; you act like they're scientific gospel. When we see polls where you're behind, sometimes .. often you'll challenge the pollster, the organization, the methodology, the legitimacy of the poll. So, how do you determine.. how do you justify or explain attacking polls where you're behind and celebrating polls where you're ahead.

Trump: "Well, I think you have to understand polls. And when I was at school.. when I was at Wharton we actually had a case on polls, we had a one month study of polls.. and I believe in polls.. I generally believe in polls. The thing with these polls they're all so different, they're coming from all over the lot, where one guy's up here, another guy's up there. You see swings of 10 and 12 points, you know, like, immediately, even the same day. So right now, it's not very scientific. It's very had when you have this many. Overall, Mark, I am a believer in polls. They say something, at least they spot a trend.
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I AGREE


Got that? Some time in the 60's, Trump had a business school case on polls. So, when he dismisses polls that have him down, he's an expert!

I'm spotting a polling trend -- passing peak Trump. If you thought the swift climb and the long-held perch was entertaining, you're going to love the tumble. Am I wrong?

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Old 27th October 2015, 07:08 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by hgc View Post
Slowly, slowly the raison d'être of this thread picks up steam. Now a national poll puts Ben Carson on top, putting Make America Great Again into second place. It's the CNN/New York Times poll, and it has the kooky doctor up 26 - 22 over Mr. Trump. This, on top of 4 straight Iowa polls with similar positions.

Now Trump is begging his Iowa audiences: "Can we get these numbers up, please?"
Going after Carson on religion was a mistake. He's losing evangelicals I'll wager.

Trump is constitutionally incapable of not responding to criticism with insults. Point Carson.
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Old 27th October 2015, 07:55 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Going after Carson on religion was a mistake. He's losing evangelicals I'll wager.

I love to watch the process of how common cause political religion works to subsume old bigotries. First the fundamentalists started to accept the Popists into their midst, then the Mormons got a pass. Now it's the Saturday worshipers? Do you know how much the 7th dayers were, until recently, despised by Southern Baptist types?

No, I don't think the attacks on Carson's religion is Trump's problem. I have said all along that Trump will fade when his shtick loses its freshness, and people start looking for new entertainment. Part of his magic is that he has been able to come up with new material on an almost daily basis. But even a genius for invention like Trump has his creative limits.
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Old 28th October 2015, 09:47 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by hgc View Post
I love to watch the process of how common cause political religion works to subsume old bigotries. First the fundamentalists started to accept the Popists into their midst, then the Mormons got a pass. Now it's the Saturday worshipers? Do you know how much the 7th dayers were, until recently, despised by Southern Baptist types?

No, I don't think the attacks on Carson's religion is Trump's problem. I have said all along that Trump will fade when his shtick loses its freshness, and people start looking for new entertainment. Part of his magic is that he has been able to come up with new material on an almost daily basis. But even a genius for invention like Trump has his creative limits.
It's hard to prove either theory, but it looks like at least in Iowa that Carson does better among evangelicals than Trump:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...-trump/412738/

Quote:
A Quinnipiac poll released last week found neurosurgeon and Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson ahead of Trump by eight percentage points in Iowa. The split among Iowa’s white evangelicals is notable: 36 percent favor Carson, compared to just 17 percent for Trump.
So Carson is ahead of Trump by 8 points overall, but 19 points among evangelicals. I'm not sure the Carson attacks have had time yet to show up in the polls, but I don't think Trump is helping himself by attacking Carson's faith.
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Old 28th October 2015, 11:27 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
It's hard to prove either theory, but it looks like at least in Iowa that Carson does better among evangelicals than Trump:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...-trump/412738/



So Carson is ahead of Trump by 8 points overall, but 19 points among evangelicals. I'm not sure the Carson attacks have had time yet to show up in the polls, but I don't think Trump is helping himself by attacking Carson's faith.
That's not surprising. Trump's "faith" is so obviously phony that even people who are routinely taken in by televangelists can see through him.
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Old 28th October 2015, 12:08 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
That's not surprising. Trump's "faith" is so obviously phony that even people who are routinely taken in by televangelists can see through him.
I really think that many of evangelicals would be, and have been, willing to give that a pass, because what they really care about is not Trump's actual beliefs, but his willingness to propel their political agenda -- which is more than apparent -- and his rambunctious assholeishness.

Are they migrating toward Sleepy Ben? Sure, because he's also bringing the goods.

This point of this is that sincere beliefs are of no consequence. They really couldn't give a rat's ass. And I can understand -- I happen to think that a lot of "evangelicals" are pretenders too, and they're in it for the political agenda.

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Old 28th October 2015, 12:16 PM   #58
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Carson will not get the nomination, because we all know there are quite a few GOPers who will simply not vote for a black guy,no matter what his politicis.
It will come down to Jeb or Mario.
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Old 28th October 2015, 02:38 PM   #59
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I feel the need to take a trump - oops, a dump - either way it's feces all the way!!!
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Old 12th November 2015, 08:19 PM   #60
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Google searches on Trump are down:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog...pdate-10421355
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Old 12th November 2015, 08:49 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Google searches on Trump are down:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog...pdate-10421355
Polls trending that way on average as well since his peak in September:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tion-3823.html
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Old 12th November 2015, 09:57 PM   #62
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And look at this now:

Donald Trump’s 95-minute rant: ‘How stupid are the people of the country?’

Quote:
FORT DODGE, Iowa -- For an hour and 35 minutes, Republican front-runner Donald Trump vented about everything that's wrong with this country and this election.

He said he would "bomb the s---" out of areas controlled by the Islamic State that are rich with oil and claimed to know more about the terrorist group than U.S. military generals. He ranted about how everyone else is wrong on illegal immigration and how even the "geniuses at Harvard" have now backed his way of thinking. He accused Hillary Rodham Clinton of playing the "woman's card," and said Marco Rubio is "weak like a baby." He signed a book for an audience member and then threw it off the stage. He forgot to take questions like he promised. And he spent more than 10 minutes angrily attacking his chief rival, Ben Carson, at one point calling him "pathological, damaged."

Gone was the candidate's recent bout of composure and control on the campaign trail. As Trump ranted on and on, campaign staffers with microphones who were supposed to take questions from the audience instead took a seat, trying to cheer their boss here and there. The audience laughed at times and clapped for many of Trump's sharp insults. But an hour and 20 minutes into the speech, people who were standing on risers on the stage behind Trump sat down. The applause came less often and less loud. As Trump skewered Carson in deeply personal language, a sense of discomfort settled on the crowd of roughly 1,500. Several people shook their heads or whispered to their neighbors.
And it seems Trump is very much a belt-buckle truther. A very import issue for Americans!

Quote:
Carson wrote in his autobiography that as a young man he had a "pathological temper" that caused him to violently attack others -- going after his mother with a hammer and trying to stab a friend, only to have the blade stopped and broken by the friend's belt buckle. In recent days, those accounts have come under scrutiny, and Carson has had to clarify or correct some of the details.

Trump said he doesn't believe Carson is telling the truth and questioned how a belt buckle could stop a blade. He stepped away from the podium and acted out how he imagined such an attack would happen, with his own belt buckle flopping around. He asked if anyone in the audience had a knife to try out his theory. His Secret Service agents, who just joined his detail this week, stood guard.

"Carson is an enigma to me," Trump said. "He said that he's 'pathological' and that he's got, basically, pathological disease... I don't want a person that's got pathological disease."
Trump may help take down Carson with him as he self-destructs. Carson may be even more dangerous than Trump as he is so deluded about so many things. Both are Narcissists of one sort or another. Inside of Carson's house looks like a shrine to himself.
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Old 13th November 2015, 09:20 AM   #63
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The downside is that as Trump and Carson self-destruct, support will shift to Ted Cruz who is equally crazy but far more dangerous.
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Old 13th November 2015, 09:29 AM   #64
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Speech that MSNBC is calling a "rant" and breakdown. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apaToLjdRp4

I admit I jumped to about half way to see how crazy it gets.

Edit to add: It's not until 1:27 where he compares Carson to a child molester - sort of. (That's not a minute and 27 seconds, it's an hour and 27 minutes. Shades of Castro...)

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Old 13th November 2015, 10:40 AM   #65
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I think he finally went full retard.
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Old 13th November 2015, 10:59 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by marplots View Post
Speech that MSNBC is calling a "rant" and breakdown. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apaToLjdRp4

I admit I jumped to about half way to see how crazy it gets.

Edit to add: It's not until 1:27 where he compares Carson to a child molester - sort of.
WTF? He's really starting to sound like someone off his meds.
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Old 13th November 2015, 12:21 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by marplots View Post
Speech that MSNBC is calling a "rant" and breakdown. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apaToLjdRp4

I admit I jumped to about half way to see how crazy it gets.

Edit to add: It's not until 1:27 where he compares Carson to a child molester - sort of. (That's not a minute and 27 seconds, it's an hour and 27 minutes. Shades of Castro...)
Trump's followers in the comments section of that site are truly scary;they blindly worship the guy.
And the whole "Trump will get things done" is frightening; no different the "But he made the trains run on time" for Mussolini.
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Old 13th November 2015, 01:26 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
The downside is that as Trump and Carson self-destruct, support will shift to Ted Cruz who is equally crazy but far more dangerous.
Agreed.

And Cruz scares me because he is both smart and crazy. I can't tell if he believes his schtick, but I don't think that really matters. If he wins he will follow through.
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Old 13th November 2015, 01:35 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Agreed.

And Cruz scares me because he is both smart and crazy. I can't tell if he believes his schtick, but I don't think that really matters. If he wins he will follow through.
Which is why he won't win. He is so far to right that he cannot move back into the center enough to be electable.
EIther,Trump,Carson or Cruz is handing the election giftwrapped to Hilary. And the Powers that Be in the GOP know it.
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Old 13th November 2015, 02:01 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
The downside is that as Trump and Carson self-destruct, support will shift to Ted Cruz who is equally crazy but far more dangerous.
No, I don't think so. Crazy Cruz and Crazy Carson are not sustainable candidates. All it takes is the media paying attention to their cray-cray.

What I found interesting about the latest Trump speech, besides the fact the news media is wasting way too much time on it, is that he sounded so angry at not being on the top. It was an interesting study in narcissism. He chastised people who would support Carson over him. And it was so annoying to him he went on for 90 minutes to a clearly bored audience.
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Old 13th November 2015, 02:05 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which is why he won't win. He is so far to right that he cannot move back into the center enough to be electable.
EIther,Trump,Carson or Cruz is handing the election giftwrapped to Hilary. And the Powers that Be in the GOP know it.
That is what I tell myself. And I hope we are right.
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Old 13th November 2015, 02:28 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
What I found interesting about the latest Trump speech, besides the fact the news media is wasting way too much time on it, is that he sounded so angry at not being on the top. It was an interesting study in narcissism. He chastised people who would support Carson over him. And it was so annoying to him he went on for 90 minutes to a clearly bored audience.
Anybody who knows a toddler recognizes the signs. It's time Trump went down for a nap, possibly after a diaper change.
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Old 13th November 2015, 05:25 PM   #73
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How long until this piece of garbage blames "weak" France on the attacks?
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Old 13th November 2015, 05:40 PM   #74
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So far, just praying for them. Like all the other candidates.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2016-...ry?id=35187811
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Old 13th November 2015, 08:01 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
...no different the [sic] "But he made the trains run on time" for Mussolini.
I thought that was Hitler.
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Old 14th November 2015, 01:47 AM   #76
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And meanwhile, Trump is polling at 42%. But sure...his Iowa speech will FINALLY be the thing to take him down. Please. You guys are starting to sound delusional.
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Old 14th November 2015, 02:13 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
I thought that was Hitler.
No, it's a factoidal saying about Mussolini. The equivalent saying of Hitler would be something about the Autobahn I guess.
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Old 14th November 2015, 07:32 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
And meanwhile, Trump is polling at 42%. But sure...his Iowa speech will FINALLY be the thing to take him down. Please. You guys are starting to sound delusional.
Which poll was that? None of the major national polls tracked by RCP.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tion-3823.html


If his Iowa speech has an effect, we probably won't see a poll that reflects that for at least a week.
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Old 14th November 2015, 07:50 AM   #79
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Quote:
He said he would "bomb the s---" out of areas controlled by the Islamic State

What exactly would he bomb? They don't have air force bases or aircraft carriers. He'd have to carpet bomb entire towns to get rid of them.

Steve S
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Old 14th November 2015, 07:56 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Which poll was that? None of the major national polls tracked by RCP.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tion-3823.html


If his Iowa speech has an effect, we probably won't see a poll that reflects that for at least a week.
This one...it's a Reuters/Ipsos poll:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0T22HB20151113

And nobody gives a damn about his Iowa speech. It will have zero impact, or it will help him. The only people making an issue of it are those still laboring under the delusion that Trump is going to "self destruct".

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