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Old 3rd August 2016, 04:39 PM   #281
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Originally Posted by Armitage72 View Post
He also threw a group of AARP members out of his recent rally because they were conducting a silent protest. A Republican candidate who sufficiently alienates senior citizens is all but dead in the water.
Any candidate who alienates the AARP does so at his peril. AARP is, by far, the largest advocacy group in the country (23 million members; half again as big as the NRA). And they vote.
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Old 3rd August 2016, 04:39 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
And for well over a year Trumps' fortunes have been on the rise.
Why would he have changed a thing over the last year as he won primaries, and climbed in the polls?
Now his campaign is faced with a downturn, is it entirely unreasonable to expect that the campaign was waiting to get negative results before altering strategy
I suppose that is possible.
However, I put no stock in it. If Trump has more than one style and he hasn't started using the new style yet, I am doubtful he ever will. No, the way I look at the body of evidence, Trump cannot pivot. I will be amazed to the point of speechlessness if Trump displays a new style, approach, or message by the end of August.

But, different viewpoints of the same events are what keeps this sub-forum humming.
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Old 3rd August 2016, 05:13 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
They're taking advantage of his need to hit back with that ad as it also features his comments on Megyn Kelly from the debates. Guess what he'd been re-litigating at every rally? Those incidents which puts them back in the news. It interesting that he insists on helping them get their message out. Wait to the ads featuring his attacks on the Khans start airing.
How the hell did this guy make so much money? Who in their right minds think any of this is smart.

The guy has diarrhea of the mouth and absolutely doesn't understand the effectiveness of good negative ads. He is giving the Clinton campaign a gold mine of material to work with.

I have always felt that Hillary would win but it would be a horse race. Trump has to find a way to get with 5 points of Hillary within 14 days or its over and it's going the other way. The press stories right now are all about disarray in the party and with his campaign, none of which helps.

Trump no longer can afford to dodge the debates. He needs something in his favor or else it's just running out the clock. Hillary would just say "fine, if Trump is such a coward, cancel them. I have better things to do with with my time than debating a loon."
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Old 3rd August 2016, 07:50 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
They're taking advantage of his need to hit back with that ad as it also features his comments on Megyn Kelly from the debates. Guess what he'd been re-litigating at every rally? Those incidents which puts them back in the news. It interesting that he insists on helping them get their message out. Wait to the ads featuring his attacks on the Khans start airing.
A reporter commented just Monday that in their recent "one-on-one" interview, Trump shushed him three different times so he could catch something on TV news. He's obsessed with the coverage he gets and has to strike back. If he doesn't hit Facebook or Twitter, he works it into his routine.

He did the re-cap again in Orlando yesterday, bringing up the Kelly fiasco, the dancing muslims, and the follow up to that, the reporter he mocked. Fox, even, reporting on this, asked the rhetorical question, "Do you really have to give them new material every day?" When you see O'Reilly, Kelly, et al looking bemused and shrugging, you've got a problem.

My question is which Fox anchor/star is going to be the first to actually disown Trump on the air. I'd think that O'Reilly, whose show has turned into a cottage industry of Bill O'Reilly, Inc., could take his show to any network willing to give him the time and I'd bet that MSNBC or CNN would give him a slot. I could also see Megyn Kelly becoming a big bucks host for one of the broadcast networks' morning shows. Her street cred with moderate viewers has improved immensely since the Trump Wars.

Whomever.... I think it likely that one or the other makes headlines by actually dumping Trump on air, or taking a new job because they disagree with the network's blind vision. I can't imagine Hannity or Greta doing so. Hannity because he's too busy holding up Trump photos with one hand, and Greta because I don't think she has the following to take her act on the road.
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Old 3rd August 2016, 08:17 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
A reporter commented just Monday that in their recent "one-on-one" interview, Trump shushed him three different times so he could catch something on TV news. He's obsessed with the coverage he gets and has to strike back. If he doesn't hit Facebook or Twitter, he works it into his routine.
This is biggest problem at the moment. Trump is reacting, instead of setting his own path. The Clinton camp is going to bait him until he can show he has the discipline not to react. What's more the Clinton camp at the moment doesn't have to. The media is doing it for them.

Not because they are taking sides but because a train wreck makes good copy.
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Old 4th August 2016, 12:17 PM   #286
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
I suppose that is possible.
However, I put no stock in it. If Trump has more than one style and he hasn't started using the new style yet, I am doubtful he ever will. No, the way I look at the body of evidence, Trump cannot pivot. I will be amazed to the point of speechlessness if Trump displays a new style, approach, or message by the end of August.

But, different viewpoints of the same events are what keeps this sub-forum humming.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...-hours-n622216


let the Pence campaign begin?
If intervention is successful, I think we are about to get inundated with anti-Hillary messages to extents only dreamed of in Talk-radio land.
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Old 4th August 2016, 12:21 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...-hours-n622216


let the Pence campaign begin?
If intervention is successful, I think we are about to get inundated with anti-Hillary messages to extents only dreamed of in Talk-radio land.
But now they are denying there was ever a Intervention planned...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...vention-226661

Man the GOP circular firing squad just keeps getting better. It is pretty clear that Giulaini hates Gingrich's guts,and I am betting the feeling is mutual.
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Old 4th August 2016, 06:37 PM   #288
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Rudi could have just said "we're not doing that" without throwing Gingrich under the bus.

We begin to see the stress: infighting, blame throwing, poor message control. The GOP has lost the plot.
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Old 4th August 2016, 09:02 PM   #289
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
Any candidate who alienates the AARP does so at his peril. AARP is, by far, the largest advocacy group in the country (23 million members; half again as big as the NRA). And they vote.
In 2013 NRA membership was given at 4.5M members. Don't know how many have joined since them, but I think AARP might have a bigger advantage than you indicate.
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Old 4th August 2016, 09:28 PM   #290
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A substantial portion of NRA "members" on their rolls are honorary, like George Zimmerman, paying no dues and taking no benefit from membership.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...a2e2_blog.html
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Old 4th August 2016, 11:25 PM   #291
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Fine.
Of course there is a chance that Trump will be bothered by Pence getting more screen time and more column-inches. And even if that doesn't bother Trump, he is going to negate almost everything Pence says. That is how it has worked up until now.
Quote:
If intervention is successful, I think we are about to get inundated with anti-Hillary messages to extents only dreamed of in Talk-radio land.
OK.
Interventions are successful only if the person has the desire and the power to change. I assert Trump has neither.

Trump can run all the anti-Hillary ads he wants (or more precisely, can run all the anti-Hillary ads he can afford), Clinton has a ground game and is using poll data to target voters very precisely. Trump, however, wants to run his campaign and Trump is against using data, he believes rallies are the key to victory. Also, Clinton can outspend him.

As I said, if we see a new Trump I will gladly admit to being wrong and will not whine if you say "I told you so."
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Old 5th August 2016, 12:48 AM   #292
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Mandatory Clock Disclaimer: My morning here is your "night before". I am 11 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time.

This morning, your Thursday night, the lead story on Megyn Kelly's show on the All Trump Network. "Trump stays on message for one speech.... but can it continue."

The ironic thing is that Fox has been lambasting the media for all the negative coverage of Trump's repeated slip-ups, but whether they have someone on to do a segment about the economy, the money to Iran, Hillary's liberties with the interpretation of Comey's comments,.... each and every guest is asked to comment about the unfair treatment in the mainstream [read: Librul] media and each then does more time discussing the same stories than they give to whatever issue they were invited on to discuss.

They even gave time to "discrediting" the Melanija/Illegal Immigrant story, but repeated the story and all the evidence and then editorialized that it was shameless, but gave their editorializing less time than they gave the story.
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Old 5th August 2016, 03:25 AM   #293
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
Fine.
Of course there is a chance that Trump will be bothered by Pence getting more screen time and more column-inches. And even if that doesn't bother Trump, he is going to negate almost everything Pence says. That is how it has worked up until now.


OK.
Interventions are successful only if the person has the desire and the power to change. I assert Trump has neither.

Trump can run all the anti-Hillary ads he wants (or more precisely, can run all the anti-Hillary ads he can afford), Clinton has a ground game and is using poll data to target voters very precisely. Trump, however, wants to run his campaign and Trump is against using data, he believes rallies are the key to victory. Also, Clinton can outspend him.

As I said, if we see a new Trump I will gladly admit to being wrong and will not whine if you say "I told you so."
I am not suggesting we will start seeing a "new" Trump. Rather, we may start seeing/hearing much less from the old Trump. His team must surely realize that the only path left is to make this election a lot less about him- and a lot more about Hillary.
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Old 5th August 2016, 03:51 AM   #294
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
His team must surely realize that the only path left is to make this election a lot less about him- and a lot more about Hillary.
His team may realize that, but what good will that do? Trump would have to not focus on himself and not respond to bait from anyone. I'd give that lower chances than his getting elected.
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Old 5th August 2016, 06:55 AM   #295
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I am not suggesting we will start seeing a "new" Trump. Rather, we may start seeing/hearing much less from the old Trump. His team must surely realize that the only path left is to make this election a lot less about him- and a lot more about Hillary.
Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
His team may realize that, but what good will that do? Trump would have to not focus on himself and not respond to bait from anyone. I'd give that lower chances than his getting elected.
Agreed.
Team Trump figured that out over 10 months ago. After individuals pointed it out, they either chose to leave or were asked to leave. To put it more metaphorically, all the mice might agree that putting a bell around the cat's neck would help everyone. But no mouse wants to volunteer for that job.

In short, if he irrationally and publicly attacks Republicans who have influence and who can help his campaign, imagine how irrationally he must attack campaign workers behind the scenes.
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Old 5th August 2016, 08:47 AM   #296
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I can't be the first to wonder if his family, advisors, Republican colleagues and the like have made an impression and what we've been seeing for awhile is the tempered, reserved, modest Trump. If so, what must he be like if fully turned loose?
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Old 5th August 2016, 08:52 AM   #297
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You know things are bad ...(good?) when Republicans are making a movie about Trump called "The Sociopath"
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Old 6th August 2016, 06:32 AM   #298
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
Agreed.
Team Trump figured that out over 10 months ago. After individuals pointed it out, they either chose to leave or were asked to leave. To put it more metaphorically, all the mice might agree that putting a bell around the cat's neck would help everyone. But no mouse wants to volunteer for that job.

In short, if he irrationally and publicly attacks Republicans who have influence and who can help his campaign, imagine how irrationally he must attack campaign workers behind the scenes.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/05/politi...rse-paul-ryan/

And here comes the pivot.

A Donald Trump presidency would likely be disastrous but it is far from inconceivable at this point.
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Old 6th August 2016, 06:44 AM   #299
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
You know things are bad ...(good?) when Republicans are making a movie about Trump called "The Sociopath"
I thought you were joking.

https://www.gofundme.com/thesociopath
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Old 6th August 2016, 06:50 AM   #300
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Originally Posted by steve s View Post
I thought you were joking.

https://www.gofundme.com/thesociopath
Funny, isn't it?
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Old 6th August 2016, 07:20 AM   #301
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The remarks about the Japanese 'sitting in front of their Sony TVs' if the USA was attacked suggested any intervention by his campaign was short-lived in its effect. The stupidity of the comments is epic. He doesn't understand the historic reasons for the limits on the Japanese military, or the destabilizing effects on the Asia-Pacific region if they did change their constitution.
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Old 6th August 2016, 09:48 PM   #302
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^Yep. But the American people after ~80 years are forgetting what happens when the Japanese rotweiller gets of it's leash.
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Old 7th August 2016, 05:01 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/05/politi...rse-paul-ryan/

And here comes the pivot.

A Donald Trump presidency would likely be disastrous but it is far from inconceivable at this point.
We'll see, but it may be too little, too late, presuming the McCain and Ryan even want Trump's endorsement at this point. *shrug*

Trump winning may not be inconceivable, but it appears to be very unlikely and might require Donald Trump to not act like Donald Trump. This is Clinton's race to lose, at this point, and I'm not honestly sure what she'd have to do to look worse than Trump.
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Old 7th August 2016, 05:02 AM   #304
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Why's this phase so damaging? After Dems spent convention week saying bad things about Trump, Trump spent the next week demonstrating them.
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Old 7th August 2016, 05:05 AM   #305
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Which phrase is that?
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Old 7th August 2016, 05:07 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Which phrase is that?
Phase not phrase.
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Old 7th August 2016, 05:18 AM   #307
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Phase not phrase.
Derpity derp.
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Old 7th August 2016, 05:28 AM   #308
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
Any candidate who alienates the AARP does so at his peril. AARP is, by far, the largest advocacy group in the country (23 million members; half again as big as the NRA). And they vote.
Well, that's Florida lost for him. There's 29 electoral votes worth of immigrants and old people down here.
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Old 2nd February 2017, 12:01 PM   #309
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Are we past Peak Trump now?
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Old 2nd February 2017, 12:44 PM   #310
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Oh man. This thread is a gold mine of armchair quarterbacking. My favorite so far:

Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
Clinton has a ground game and is using poll data to target voters very precisely. Trump, however, wants to run his campaign and Trump is against using data, he believes rallies are the key to victory. Also, Clinton can outspend him.
Although, to be fair to Ladewig:

Quote:
As I said, if we see a new Trump I will gladly admit to being wrong and will not whine if you say "I told you so."
I won't say "I told you so", because I didn't. I didn't even see the Trump win coming, until it actually happened.

I never put much weight in the "outspend" argument in political campaigns. It seems like once you have enough money to clear the barrier to entry into the campaign, diminishing returns set in very quickly. By August, it was clear that Trump was getting all the publicity and coverage he needed, at a fraction of what Hillary was spending.

What I don't think any of us knew until after the election was over, was that the Clinton team didn't have a ground game, and that their reliance on targeting models was fatally misguided.
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Old 2nd February 2017, 01:02 PM   #311
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Are we past Peak Trump now?
Just about.
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Old 5th February 2017, 05:36 PM   #312
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While I agree that Clinton's ground game (really the Neo-liberal ground game in general) had a fatal flaw (namely writing off whites, working class, and men) that had a powerful impact on the outcome, I feel constrained to point out that even with Papa Putin pulling every string he could that Clinton won the popular outright and only lost the EC by around 100,000 votes across 3-5 states. Everyone is buying into the Big Red Map and only seeing win/loss and not margin.
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Old 18th May 2017, 06:55 AM   #313
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Just about.
How about now?
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Old 18th May 2017, 07:33 AM   #314
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
How about now?
Yes, absolutely.
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Old 18th May 2017, 08:55 AM   #315
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
How about now?
I wanted to bump this thread.
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Old 18th May 2017, 09:21 AM   #316
Beelzebuddy
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Peak Trump happened just before his first executive order was shot down.

Despite his japes and buffoonery, we had elected a clown to the highest office in the land. That first week of office brought a general indrawing of breath, as he squatted out toxic EOs like a chimp with the runs. We began to worry that maybe he was the evil kind of clown, the kind with the menacing and the homicide.

Then he started hitting himself in the face with pies.
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Old 18th May 2017, 09:23 AM   #317
Belz...
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
Then he started hitting himself in the face with pies.
Reminds me of the monks in Monty Python and the Holy Grail who hit themselves in the face with planks, but funnier.
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Old 18th May 2017, 10:16 AM   #318
dudalb
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
Peak Trump happened just before his first executive order was shot down.

Despite his japes and buffoonery, we had elected a clown to the highest office in the land. That first week of office brought a general indrawing of breath, as he squatted out toxic EOs like a chimp with the runs. We began to worry that maybe he was the evil kind of clown, the kind with the menacing and the homicide.

Then he started hitting himself in the face with pies.
Yeah, he has gone from the Joker to Crusty the Clown.
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Old 4th December 2017, 11:27 AM   #319
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Originally Posted by hgc View Post
First of all, yes this topic needs its own thread. This is about the long-term trend in Donald Trump's position in this race relative to the competition for the GOP nomination.

The thread title is inspired by an event that Trump did yesterday in South Carolina where the room was not even half filled and the cable news networks gave scant live coverage. The purpose of this thread is to track Trump's progress in poll standings and speculate on his evolving chances of being the nominee.

I'm not saying that Trump is definitely not going to win this nomination. But if he's not going to win it, then we will see a slide somewhere, sometime. Has that slide started now? Trump is a creature of the obsessive coverage by the political and entertainment media, which is a milieu where he generally is the most capable exploiter of the features of the landscape. But when the media coverage starts to slacken, if for no other reason than that the entertainment gets stale, he's probably going to suffer in his popularity.

Thoughts?

I don't think we've passed Peak Trump yet
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Old 4th December 2017, 11:47 AM   #320
WilliamSeger
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
I don't think we've passed Peak Trump yet
Sure looks like he's tobogganing down the backside to me. Listen for screaming when he hits the treeline.
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