Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

Nov 4 place your bets

  • Trump will win, 100%

    Votes: 42 16.9%

  • Hilary will win, 100%

    Votes: 82 32.9%

  • Trump will win, but I'm worried Hil might triumph

    Votes: 9 3.6%

  • Hilary will win, but I'm scared the chances.

    Votes: 116 46.6%
  • Total voters
    249

Joey McGee

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Joey McGee
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Feb 17, 2011
Messages
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I keep having protracted arguments with friends, people on the subway, the cops on the way to the drunk tank, is it actually a real thing that Trump could beat Hilary in the GE? I say no. Three reasons.

1. Obama beat McCain and Romney; Drumpf has trashed both of them and they've both trashed him, how many voters can take that insult/turn on a dime?

2. General polls show Hilary with a 4 point win, par for the course margin.

3. More people believe in global warming than they did when the last two elections happened and Drumpf says it was a hoax by the Chinese.

Therefore there is a .000001 chance he will win, and I mean each and every one of those *********** zeros.

Am I a delusional optimist?

I have read those "Trump could win" articles too. I'm looking for real conviction and fear here.

Go Hilary 2016

"Almost as cool as Obama"
 
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There is some chance but it is very small. He is disliked by a huge majority of the country (he will be the most disliked candidate probably ever). People will be motivated to vote just to make sure he doesn't become President.

Maybe he thinks he can pivot away from all the crap he's said during primary season but no way. It has all been recorded and will be used against him mercilessly. And it might backfire by angering his supporters if he tried anyway.

Hillary will also have two people that have won two Presidential elections each doing everything they can to make sure she wins. Bernie Sanders too, probably. Who has Trump got?

Trump is very likely going to lose. Probably badly.
 
I voted that Hillary will win, but I'm still scared of the chances. I never thought Trump would get this far, and never cease to be surprised by the craziness in this election.

I should mention that we are making a fairly reasonable assumption, but not a foregone one, in leaving Bernie out of the mix as well as assuming Trump will get the nomination. It seems likely that it will be Hillary versus Trump, but it has not happened yet.
 
Reason say Hillary will win, but this being an American election I worry that Trump wins.
 
bruto said:
I voted that Hillary will win, but I'm still scared of the chances. I never thought Trump would get this far, and never cease to be surprised by the craziness in this election.

I should mention that we are making a fairly reasonable assumption, but not a foregone one, in leaving Bernie out of the mix as well as assuming Trump will get the nomination. It seems likely that it will be Hillary versus Trump, but it has not happened yet.
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I'm glad he is the probable nominee. He is pretty much unelectable and Cruz is worse anyway.
 
Joey McGee said:
I keep having protracted arguments with friends, people on the subway, the cops on the way to the drunk tank, is it actually a real thing that Trump could beat Hilary in the GE? I say no. Three reasons.

1. Obama beat McCain and Romney; Drumpf has trashed both of them and they've both trashed him, how many voters can take that insult/turn on a dime?

2. General polls show Hilary with a 4 point win, par for the course margin.

3. More people believe in global warming than they did when the last two elections happened and Drumpf says it was a hoax by the Chinese.

Therefore there is a .000001 chance he will win, and I mean each and every one of those *********** zeros.

Am I a delusional optimist?

I have read those "Trump could win" articles too. I'm looking for real conviction and fear here.

Go Hilary 2016

"Almost as cool as Obama"
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Several points:

1.) Carrying a third term for either party is very rare. It's happened only twice since WWII. That's acting against her already

2.) There's a strong anti establishment mentality that's been in play on both parties. Trump for the repubs, and Sanders for the Dems. Hillary has to deal with her "establishment" roots in the public's perception

3.) Individual Polls have already deviated from actual results in the primaries. Look at actual trends to make that judgement is my opinion.

4.) Turn out rate for voters is high for republicans and low for democrats in the primaries. Does this translate to the generals or not?

Trump could lose... But hillary has a number of stigmas to overcome as well.
The last few elections were very often near dead heat as far as the popular vote is concerned
 
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Joey McGee said:
3. More people believe in global warming than they did when the last two elections happened and Drumpf says it was a hoax by the Chinese.
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While you and I look for truthful, objective, and consistent statements from candidates, there are millions of voters that just don't care. Trump said he doesn't believe in climate change, then he said that he does believe and that he was just joking. I think he has gone back to calling it a hoax.

The US now uses a more fluid definition of truth evaluating candidates. Trump's positions on climate change are not going to cause a notable shift in the number of Trump's supporters or detractors. If you like him, then you can overlook what many, many people think is a minor issue. If you are against him, then this just reinforces your disdain and contempt.

Also, I suspect that after the primaries Trump will have an entirely new political platform. When asked about previous statements, he will either (1) ignore the question and repeatedly state his current opinion, (2) say that he had to say those things just to get nominated, (3) deny he ever said that statesment, or (4) accuse the interviewer being both biased and hostile.

ETA
About your .000001 chance of winning. Betting in Britain has produced these odds

Hillary 8/15
Trump 10/3 (or 50/15)
 
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Yeah, yeah, yeah, Trumpanzees are dumb, out of touch with reality. True, but their leader could win if there's a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil or if the economy experiences a 2008-style melt-down.
 
A small but significant percentage of the American people actually pay attention to what the candidates say. Trump's ability to tap into the disaffected conservative angst isn't going to save him from the puerile crap he continuously spews.
 
Though I voted Hilary would win, Trump scares me. I really believed, for a long time, that Trump would make a splash but eventually say something that would change the tide against him. He has said and done plenty, and people have smiled or yawned.
 
wasapi said:
Though I voted Hilary would win, Trump scares me. I really believed, for a long time, that Trump would make a splash but eventually say something that would change the tide against him. He has said and done plenty, and people have smiled or yawned.
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He's got the support of a plurality of Republican primary voters. But the vast majority of the country hates him.
 
Trump will win because whenever he says something outrageous it increases his base.

By the time this election is over the outrage factor will be so high that heads will literally explode. I predict the population will drop 25% due to exploding heads - a prospect I relish, because I hate America!

Still, I worry that Clinton (or Sanders) might win. Though this would also cause plenty of outrage, there's a chance they might actually do some good for the country - despite constant assurances to the contrary. Such an outcome is totally unacceptable...
 
Grizzly Bear said:
The last few elections were very often near dead heat as far as the popular vote is concerned
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And this one probably will too. One thing I worry about though:-

In previous elections, electronic voting machines boosted the republican tally. But can we be sure they will do the same this year? What if Republicans don't want Trump to win? What if they lay off the voter suppression because they can't be bothered? And what if democrats decide to actually vote? That scares me...
 
So, why is this 2016 election thread not in the 2016 election forum?
 
Jeesh—I'm worried ANY of the candidates will get elected. Its a very bad election all the way around. I don't want to be responsible for helping elect ANY of them in.

As for Trump, I think the appeal is that there are probably more people out there that are sick of the abundance of politically correctness. It is getting ridiculous and will only get worse as people will find more and more and more…and more…to be offended by. As a society, a society built on freedom of speech, there is a threshold and I think Trump taps into that—and I think more people are on his side than we realize because of that, but will not speak up because anybody who does, is prematurely labeled a sexist, racist, [insert insult].
 
Arg9 said:
Jeesh—I'm worried ANY of the candidates will get elected. Its a very bad election all the way around. I don't want to be responsible for helping elect ANY of them in.

As for Trump, I think the appeal is that there are probably more people out there that are sick of the abundance of politically correctness. It is getting ridiculous and will only get worse as people will find more and more and more…and more…to be offended by. As a society, a society built on freedom of speech, there is a threshold and I think Trump taps into that—and I think more people are on his side than we realize because of that, but will not speak up because anybody who does, is prematurely labeled a sexist, racist, [insert insult].
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Freedom of speech doesn't mean that you can say whatever you want without being criticized for it. In fact, freedom of speech means that others have exactly as much right to criticize what you say as you have to say it.
 
Trump might win because both party establishments are the same. I thought Bern would have the same shot but it looks like dems love their establishment.
 
logger said:
Trump might win because both party establishments are the same. I thought Bern would have the same shot but it looks like dems love their establishment.
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He might have a shot if he wasn't such an openly low life piece of crap. The vast majority of the country hates him. He's going to lose and bring your pathetic party down with him.
 
Tony Stark said:
He might have a shot if he wasn't such an openly low life piece of crap. The vast majority of the country hates him. He's going to lose and bring your pathetic party down with him.
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Possibly, but things are set in motion now where I think society is going to get a lot worse. Only people with assets and power will fare well. ;)
 
I just watched the guy rush the stage, Trump handled it well. Situations like that are going to reinforce his inevitable presidency.

Tony at least he hasn't gotten anyone killed like Hillary has.
 
I was thinking about starting a thread on a similar topic but I see I got beaten to the punch.
Ladewig said:
ETA
About your .000001 chance of winning. Betting in Britain has produced these odds

Hillary 8/15
Trump 10/3 (or 50/15)
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How do those odds translate into percentages?
But . . . I take betting odds with a grain of salt: I think the betting odds were very high that Hillary would win the Michigan primary, but she didn't. What the odds actually reflect is simply conventional wisdom in the UK. And conventional wisdom is not a crystal ball, not by a long shot. Conventional wisdom was that Jeb Bush would be the nominee, or maybe Scott Walker.

Cain said:
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Trumpanzees are dumb, out of touch with reality. True, but their leader could win if there's a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil or if the economy experiences a 2008-style melt-down.
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And this is why 100% certainty or even 99.9999% certainty is foolish. People are fickle. There's a lot of time between now and November. There actually are signs that a recession could be coming: stock markets are down, many economic indicators have been negative for months. And those are just two possible events; there are others (black swans) that nobody has thought of.



Anyway, my own predictive powers are no better than anyone else's but here are my thoughts:

Most likely scenario is that Trump loses, probably badly. If you go to a site like Polling Report you can look at the "favorability ratings" for each major candidate and Trump's are more negative than anyone else's. In the primaries he can with with a plurality of votes, as long as the other votes are split among his rivals. Not so in the general.

But, as I mentioned above, people are fickle so maybe he can change people's minds by November. Or maybe he can change how people see Hillary Clinton. I doubt it, but you can't be sure.

FWIW, here's Trump's latest favorability ratings:
http://www.pollingreport.com/S-Z.htm#Trump

At latest count 67% of US adults had an unfavorable view of him, and 30% had a positive view.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16.htm
In another poll 69% said he was "not trustworthy"; the same poll has 59% say Hillary Clinton is not trustworthy though. On other questions though, she rates much better than Trump:
66% say she has the right experience and 58% say she has the right personality and temperament to be president whereas only 26% and 25% say those things about Trump.

As a percentage I'd still give Trump about a 10% chance of winning if he's the nominee. But I think it's more likely he will lose, maybe in a landslide.
 
Toke said:
Reason say Hillary will win, but this being an American election I worry that Trump wins.
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Honestly, Trump vs. Hillary strikes me as not being much different than Kang vs. Kodos. Either way, your planet is doomed! Doomed!
 
Nobody has a 100% chance of winning, but Trump has significantly greater than 0% as well.

I would put a Trump victory in the region of 40%.

Why? Because most, if not all, Republicans will vote Trump because he's a Republican. Even those who say they are against him.

I also think we can't discount those who think it will be a laugh to elect him, and those who are so put off by the Democrat candidate (whoever that may be) that they don't vote, or vote for a third party.

McCain and Romney were pretty wishy washy candidates. They weren't the types to excite people who may have had better things to do that day than vote.
 
angrysoba said:
Nobody has a 100% chance of winning, but Trump has significantly greater than 0% as well.

I would put a Trump victory in the region of 40%.

Why? Because most, if not all, Republicans will vote Trump because he's a Republican. Even those who say they are against him.

I also think we can't discount those who think it will be a laugh to elect him, and those who are so put off by the Democrat candidate (whoever that may be) that they don't vote, or vote for a third party.

McCain and Romney were pretty wishy washy candidates. They weren't the types to excite people who may have had better things to do that day than vote.
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They also weren't hated by 2/3 of the country.
 
Arg9 said:
Jeesh—I'm worried ANY of the candidates will get elected. Its a very bad election all the way around. I don't want to be responsible for helping elect ANY of them in.

As for Trump, I think the appeal is that there are probably more people out there that are sick of the abundance of politically correctness. It is getting ridiculous and will only get worse as people will find more and more and more…and more…to be offended by. As a society, a society built on freedom of speech, there is a threshold and I think Trump taps into that—and I think more people are on his side than we realize
because of that, but will not speak up because anybody who does, is prematurely labeled a sexist, racist, [insert insult].
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Sorry, I don't recall where I read it, it may have been here, but it was stated that some difficulty was caused in ascertaining accurate public polls. The reason given was that a number of people who would vote for Trump would not publicly announce it for suspected backlash from peers.

Whatever. This time around the entire presidential campaign has simply left me having to shrug and alternately grind my teeth. It's a lose/lose situation. There is just no one . . .
 
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bruto said:
I voted that Hillary will win, but I'm still scared of the chances. I never thought Trump would get this far, and never cease to be surprised by the craziness in this election.

I should mention that we are making a fairly reasonable assumption, but not a foregone one, in leaving Bernie out of the mix as well as assuming Trump will get the nomination. It seems likely that it will be Hillary versus Trump, but it has not happened yet.
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Seconded.

Roger Ramjets said:
You are right of course. There's always a chance that Trump will pull out - perhaps due to acute lead poisoning.
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Or dioxine, or polonium? :p
 
angrysoba said:
Doesn't matter. Only half the country votes anyway. If Trump wins a quarter of the electorate then he has a shot if he wins the big electoral college states.
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Of course it matters. It makes people much more likely to vote against him.

As for the big states, he has no chance to win California, New York, or Illinois. He would win Texas for sure but so did McCain and Romney. Florida is less certain but he would probably be the underdog. And he would basically need it to win. While Hillary could lose it (and a couple of other swing states Obama won twice) and still win.
 
ddt said:
Or dioxine, or polonium? :p
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Nah - we don't need poisons. This is America, where the right to bear an assassination device shall not be infringed!

The assassin will be a lone nutter who, according to 'his' Facebook page, has liberal leanings. Before capture he will commit suicide by shooting himself 15 times in the back.
 
Tony Stark said:
Freedom of speech doesn't mean that you can say whatever you want without being criticized for it. In fact, freedom of speech means that others have exactly as much right to criticize what you say as you have to say it.
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Exactly, as we've seen since the creation of this nation. The PC propaganda is used and will continue to be used as a form of censorship and many know this which was my point of why Trump is appealing to many more than we know.
 
Arg9 said:
Exactly, as we've seen since the creation of this nation. The PC propaganda is used and will continue to be used as a form of censorship and many know this which was my point of why Trump is appealing to many more than we know.
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So using your free speech to criticize others' free speech is censorship? Laughable nonsense. People (Donald Trump for example) have a right to say all the bigoted crap they want. And others have the right to call them scumbag bigots. If they don't like it, too bad for them.

Trump (assuming the GOP doesn't find some way to deny him the nomination) will be the most hated nominee ever.
 
wasapi said:

Sorry, I don't recall where I read it, it may have been here, but it was stated that some difficulty was caused in ascertaining accurate public polls. The reason given was that a number of people who would vote for Trump would not publicly announce it for suspected backlash from peers.
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Yeah, from what I've experienced first hand and witnessed is it is better to just keep quiet and vote (if we had worthy candidates). For many I've encountered, reasoning is not a possibility and logic is a fly's fart in the wind because name calling is easier and more fun.

wasapi said:
Whatever. This time around the entire presidential campaign has simply left me having to shrug and alternately grind my teeth. It's a lose/lose situation. There is just no one . . .
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It is bad. Easy to develop conspiracy theories on the matter because its so bad.
 
logger said:
I just watched the guy rush the stage, Trump handled it well. Situations like that are going to reinforce his inevitable presidency.
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Personally I can't wait for his first foreign policy move...

A cage match with Vladimir Putin.
 
Tony Stark said:
So using your free speech to criticize others' free speech is censorship? Laughable nonsense. People (Donald Trump for example) have a right to say all the bigoted crap they want. And others have the right to call them scumbag bigots. If they don't like it, too bad for them.

Trump (assuming the GOP doesn't find some way to deny him the nomination) will be the most hated nominee ever.
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Tony—stop and take a deep breath.

Political correctness can be used as a form of censorship. If a group is led to believe in a certain perspective, and that group has enough power or seduction to influence legislation (or a government that just doesn't care and just takes advantage of it for its own purposes), anyone who develops a unique opinion will be punished or publicly ridiculed leading to silence or fear of speaking a dissenting opinion. What is politically correct can change through time.
 
Arg9 said:
Tony—stop and take a deep breath.

Political correctness can be used as a form of censorship. If a group is led to believe in a certain perspective, and that group has enough power or seduction to influence legislation (or a government that just doesn't care and just takes advantage of it for its own purposes), anyone who develops a unique opinion will be punished or publicly ridiculed leading to silence or fear of speaking a dissenting opinion. What is politically correct can change through time.
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The government isn't punishing anyone for having a dissenting opinion (nor is it likely to with the 1st Amendment and all). Though if Trump had his way, people would be thrown in jail for protesting him. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-demands-that-police-arrest-rally-protesters/

Frankly what it sounds like to me like you're saying that people like Trump should be able to say whatever disgusting crap they want without people calling them on. BS, bigots like Trump can say whatever they want. Just the same, people can call them bigots for saying it. That's what free speech actually is in this country.
 
Solitaire said:
Personally I can't wait for his first foreign policy move...

A cage match with Vladimir Putin.
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Christ, you can't have followed the news. If anything it would be a banya session where they both take turns with the branches.

Mental pictures! ;)
 
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