General Election in South Africa

To take a rest from US politics it might be interesting and useful for some to take a look at what's happening elsewhere on this planet.

It appears that the ANC is about to be defeated in the Republic of South Africa and replaced in power by what looks like a centre moderate party.

It looks as if democracy can work in some places. I was amazed, but overjoyed, that SA made the transition from Apartheid to a multi-racial country that more or less worked. Things are continuing.

JOHANNESBURG—With 95 per cent of votes counted Friday in municipal elections, South Africa’s ruling party appears to be headed for its biggest electoral blow since it won power at the end of apartheid 22 years ago.

The results remained too close to call in the country’s largest city, Johannesburg, and the Tshwane metropolitan area around the capital, Pretoria. The opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) was challenging the African National Congress (ANC) in both municipalities. Neither party appeared to be winning a majority in those two cities that would allow it to govern alone, raising the possibility of coalition governments.

Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa told reporters it was too early to analyze the election results, saying it would be like reading “somebody’s tombstone before they die.”

The ANC lost a key municipality named after its star, Nelson Mandela Bay, to the Democratic Alliance. The DA already runs the city of Cape Town, the only major South African city where black people are not in the majority, and has been pushing hard to win supporters in other regions.

The ANC, formerly the main anti-apartheid movement, has lost some support from people who say their hopes for economic opportunities have not been fulfilled since the end of white minority rule. The South African economy has stagnated since the global financial crisis in 2008.

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https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/08/05/south-africas-ruling-party-poised-for-major-loss.html

Description of the Democratic_Alliance_(South_Africa)^WP.

It's not a general election which isn't for another three years; it's local/municipal, which (as in most places) gives rise to a greater opposition vote.

Gord_in_Toronto said:

It appears that the ANC is about to be defeated in the Republic of South Africa and replaced in power by what looks like a centre moderate party.

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I visited just over a year ago and nobody, including the DA (I spoke to three of their MPs all from Western Cape, the party had only just elected its current leader) thought the ANC would lose 2019 or probably the national election after that. IIRC their share of the vote peaked in 2004 which was the third post-apartheid election. Zuma gets replaced in the next year or two, nobody knew who the replacement was likely to be. Ramaphosa was not thought to have enough support in the ANC, though is (relatively speaking) in the safe-pair-of-hands / establishment category.

Winning Port Elizabeth (the big city in Nelson Mandela Bay region) is the DA's main prize in this election. Not that it has won outright but has beaten the ANC and won't need them in a coalition. The ANC losing Jozi would be a very large upset, nobody thought that would happen a year ago. Losing Pretoria would be significant too. I guess the ANC is falling from grace a bit faster than previously thought (this is a good thing).

I was amazed, but overjoyed, that SA made the transition from Apartheid to a multi-racial country that more or less worked.

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I think it just worked less badly than almost all fears. (That was a huge accomplishment though). BTW the National Party that previously governed under apartheid (and in a unity government with the ANC from 1994-6-ish) is technically somewhere part of the DA, but it has virtually disappeared.

Francesca R said:

It's not a general election which isn't for another three years; it's local/municipal, which (as in most places) gives rise to a greater opposition vote.

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My bad. I did not see the words "general election" and just jumped to the conclusion it was.

I visited just over a year ago and nobody, including the DA (I spoke to three of their MPs all from Western Cape, the party had only just elected its current leader) thought the ANC would lose 2019 or probably the national election after that. IIRC their share of the vote peaked in 2004 which was the third post-apartheid election. Zuma gets replaced in the next year or two, nobody knew who the replacement was likely to be. Ramaphosa was not thought to have enough support in the ANC, though is (relatively speaking) in the safe-pair-of-hands / establishment category.

Winning Port Elizabeth (the big city in Nelson Mandela Bay region) is the DA's main prize in this election. Not that it has won outright but has beaten the ANC and won't need them in a coalition. The ANC losing Jozi would be a very large upset, nobody thought that would happen a year ago. Losing Pretoria would be significant too. I guess the ANC is falling from grace a bit faster than previously thought (this is a good thing).

I think it just worked less badly than almost all fears. (That was a huge accomplishment though). BTW the National Party that previously governed under apartheid (and in a unity government with the ANC from 1994-6-ish) is technically somewhere part of the DA, but it has virtually disappeared.

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Thanks for the greater nuance of this response.

The recent General Election in Canada also gives hope for the future.

The Democratic Alliance has won Tshwane (Pretoria) as well now (not a majority) so it is surely better than expectations for them.

ANC dominance nationally is not a surprise given so many decades of overtly racist rule by the former National Party voted in repeatedly by a small minority. Nor is it a surprise that one party rule (even if democratic by universal participation) becomes ossified and corrupt (including in the realm of racially selective policies like BEE). The hand over of power (NP essentially signing its own death warrant under Frederik De Klerk in 1989, and working alongside Mandela in later years) was unusually bloodless in common with a few other huge geopolitical shifts that happened around that time (Berlin Wall, USSR), but it rarely happens like that.

Gord_in_Toronto said:

The recent General Election in Canada also gives hope for the future.

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Agree but like the brief "End of History" of 1989-91 it is the exeption not the rule. Moderate centrists have very little going for them. With Canada's Liberals IMO you are in one of the lucky countries right now long may it last.

Francesca R said:

The Democratic Alliance has won Tshwane (Pretoria) as well now (not a majority) so it is surely better than expectations for them.

ANC dominance nationally is not a surprise given so many decades of overtly racist rule by the former National Party voted in repeatedly by a small minority. Nor is it a surprise that one party rule (even if democratic by universal participation) becomes ossified and corrupt (including in the realm of racially selective policies like BEE). The hand over of power (NP essentially signing its own death warrant under Frederik De Klerk in 1989, and working alongside Mandela in later years) was unusually bloodless in common with a few other huge geopolitical shifts that happened around that time (Berlin Wall, USSR), but it rarely happens like that.

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I caught the results and an analysis on Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-as-discontent-boosts-south-africa-opposition

The African National Congress lost its stranglehold on South African politics as voter discontent over a struggling economy, a scarcity of jobs and scandals surrounding President Jacob Zuma handed it the worst performance in an election since Nelson Mandela swept it to power in 1994.

The ANC’s support dropped to 54.5 percent in an Aug. 3 local government election from 62.2 percent in a national vote two years ago. It was relegated to the second-biggest party in the capital, Pretoria, and southern city of Port Elizabeth, and gave up outright majorities in financial center, Johannesburg, and its industrial hub neighbor Ekurhuleni. The party now controls by itself only three of the country’s eight metropolitan areas.

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Francesca R said:

Agree but like the brief "End of History" of 1989-91 it is the exeption not the rule. Moderate centrists have very little going for them. With Canada's Liberals IMO you are in one of the lucky countries right now long may it last.

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Understanding how Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party defeated Harper and the Conservative Party would be useful information for any modern centre/liberal party because in this election the Liberals successfully countered the same Conservative strategy that gave them their prior two successes. I'm not personally going to try to discuss this in this forum because I'm not prepared to spend the time countering the noise level that results.

Francesca R said:

ANC dominance nationally is not a surprise given so many decades of overtly racist rule by the former National Party voted in repeatedly by a small minority. Nor is it a surprise that one party rule (even if democratic by universal participation) becomes ossified and corrupt (including in the realm of racially selective policies like BEE). The hand over of power (NP essentially signing its own death warrant under Frederik De Klerk in 1989, and working alongside Mandela in later years) was unusually bloodless in common with a few other huge geopolitical shifts that happened around that time (Berlin Wall, USSR), but it rarely happens like that.

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I think those two facts are linked. De Klerk saw the writing on the wall. The apartheid regime was despised throughout the world. The whole word had imposed cultural and sport sanctions, and many states had imposed economic sanctions on South Africa. In the Netherlands, there were even terrorist attacks (never solved) against companies that traded with/in SA. With the fall of the Soviet bloc, no western nation had any reason anymore to support SA overtly or covertly. Its only remaining ally was Israel.

I'm not surprised that the ANC ossified and has rampant corruption. I am glad, though, that they uphold democratic principles and that after 22 years of ANC rule, the country still has fair and regular elections and that there's a chance of a change of government. Most liberation movements can't resist the opportunity to switch to dictatorship.

ddt said:

I'm not surprised that the ANC ossified and has rampant corruption. I am glad, though, that they uphold democratic principles and that after 22 years of ANC rule, the country still has fair and regular elections and that there's a chance of a change of government.

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Some point out that the ANC has never had any need to suspend democratic rule since it has been untroubled by opposition. In view of that the coming period will be more of a test. But SA has the benefit of what is quite widely regarded as the best constitution in the world for limiting potential damage. It's central bank is independent constitutionally for example, unlike the Federal Reserve or others. And the white minority did leave behind some robust institutions including the judicuary in Bloemfontein (according to some companies I have spoken to it is still pretty easy to take the government to court and win), and the National Treasury (although Zuma appointed a pal as finance minister this year which frightened markets and got SA debt downgraded before he relented and appointed Pravin Gordhan back there instead)

Most liberation movements can't resist the opportunity to switch to dictatorship.

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Yes. Well the ANC had one of last century's few saints leading it.

Francesca R said:

Some point out that the ANC has never had any need to suspend democratic rule since it has been untroubled by opposition. In view of that the coming period will be more of a test. But SA has the benefit of what is quite widely regarded as the best constitution in the world for limiting potential damage. It's central bank is independent constitutionally for example, unlike the Federal Reserve or others. And the white minority did leave behind some robust institutions including the judicuary in Bloemfontein (according to some companies I have spoken to it is still pretty easy to take the government to court and win), and the National Treasury (although Zuma appointed a pal as finance minister this year which frightened markets and got SA debt downgraded before he relented and appointed Pravin Gordhan back there instead)

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The moment the ruling party decides not to play anymore by the democratic rules, the value of a constitution is not more than that of the paper it´s written on. But with the second part, I agree: unlike in other countries with liberation movements, there was of course in SA a robust court system, albeit one "slegs vir blanke".

Francesca R said:

Yes. Well the ANC had one of last century's few saints leading it.

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Fair enough, though Mandela, of course, only oversaw a few years of the change-over from apartheid to the current system.