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Old 9th February 2017, 02:37 AM   #41
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
The Scottish independence referendum was on remaining in the UK it was not on whether the UK was or was not in the EU.
Remaining in the EU was a major driver for the campaign to remain a part of the UK. Scotland voted on it's independence on the understanding that being a part of the UK also meant remaining in the EU and independence meaning an uncertain future, especially as far as EU is concerned.

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If a Scottish referendum on independence was successful on the basis that Scotland would be part of the EU then could not join would that invalidate the independence referendum?
No, but it could be a basis for another referendum to re-join UK.

Polls show a hard Brexit has increased support for Scottish independence. Support for either is now within the margin of error. Given how incompetent the British cabinet is, a successful independence referendum is not out of the question.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUSKBN15N061

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Old 9th February 2017, 04:23 AM   #42
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Partitioning isn't always a disaster. The Czech Republic and Slovakia seem to have separated peacefully and successfully. Other partitioning may not have resulted in peace and cooperation but was probably more peaceful than the alternatives (e.g. Cyprus).

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Old 9th February 2017, 04:39 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Partitioning isn't always a disaster. The Czech Republic and Slovakia seem to have separated peacefully and successfully. Other partitioning may not have resulted in peace and cooperation but was probably more peaceful than the alternatives (e.g. Cyprus).
Funny you mention it. Czech-Slovakia partitioning was also made on lies and deception. Like Brexit...
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Old 9th February 2017, 04:40 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Partitioning isn't always a disaster. The Czech Republic and Slovakia seem to have separated peacefully and successfully.
True, but Czechoslovakia wasn't a part of any transnational organization that would impact it significantly. UK is.

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Old 9th February 2017, 04:46 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Partitioning isn't always a disaster. The Czech Republic and Slovakia seem to have separated peacefully and successfully. Other partitioning may not have resulted in peace and cooperation but was probably more peaceful than the alternatives (e.g. Cyprus).
The Czech and Slovak parts of the unified state were a federation. It separated, just as Scotland and England may separate, into its constituent components, but the Czechs didn't pull Slovakia to bits when it left the federation, on the pretext, for example, that parts of Slovakia have an ethnic Hungarian majority.

The Northern Islands are part of Scotland, and have been throughout the History of Great Britain; and their relationship with the rest of Scotland will be decided, in the event of Scottish independence, by their people, and by the Scottish people and government.

To find a current example of imperialist partition, look at Russia's treatment of Ukraine. Annexing Crimea and inciting separatism in Donetsk and Lugansk.

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Old 9th February 2017, 05:12 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I am not recommending it. I am warning that the suggestion of UDI as is suggested by some pro-independence campaigners my have unintended consequences. Some parts of the present UK may not wish to be part of an independent Scotland, the proposal seems to have been accepted that a sub part of referendum can be separately argued. If there is a case for Scotland not having voted to leave the EU; the case could be argued that other parts did not vote for leaving the UK.

The Scottish independence referendum was on remaining in the UK it was not on whether the UK was or was not in the EU.

If a Scottish referendum on independence was successful on the basis that Scotland would be part of the EU then could not join would that invalidate the independence referendum?
Always amazed at how quickly this red herring comes up in these conversations.

The people of the Northern Isles have never expressed any desire to leave Scotland nor is any such thing seriously proposed.

If they did express such a wish then they like any other people would be able to pursue UDI but I doubt they would want to.

There's no mechanism by which regions of Scotland get to opt out/in to independence.
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Old 9th February 2017, 10:14 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Always amazed at how quickly this red herring comes up in these conversations.

The people of the Northern Isles have never expressed any desire to leave Scotland nor is any such thing seriously proposed.

If they did express such a wish then they like any other people would be able to pursue UDI but I doubt they would want to.

There's no mechanism by which regions of Scotland get to opt out/in to independence.
Nor have they expressed any desire to leave the UK. The question is should they be forced to leave the UK if they vote to remain?

This is essentially the same argument as Scotland voted to remain in the EU, it is being removed against its will so a re-vote on independence is justified.

The Northern Isles have been part of a United Kingdom for longer than they have been part of a Scottish Kingdom to which they were transferred from Norway.

A mechanism could easily be created to allow regions of Scotland to opt in / out that is just a matter of political will.

It is always amusing to see what flags fly in Kirkwall when Nicola visits!



FWIW I voted on the losing side in both referenda. With the collapse in the oil price I would not vote for Scottish independence a second time, and I think Scotland in the EU and the rest of the island of Britain out is not a recipe for a successful Scottish economy. The concept of Brexit was not unheard of at the time of the Scottish referendum - UKIP existed. Certainly if there is another referendum I think it needs to be agreed that no further referenda on independence should be undertaken for e.g. 25 years, We are just facing a neverendum, I am sure that if the next referendum is lost within five years another excuse for a re-run will heard.

Get over it. The nation voted in a once in a generation vote to remain in the UK. This is what democracy is. The UK voted to leave the EU.

I want the Scottish government to concentrate on Scotland, sort out the schools etc. The SNP lost the referendum, they are a minority government they have no mandate to continually re-run the referendum until they get the vote they like.
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Old 9th February 2017, 10:41 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Get over it. The nation voted in a once in a generation vote to remain in the UK. This is what democracy is. The UK voted to leave the EU.

I want the Scottish government to concentrate on Scotland, sort out the schools etc. The SNP lost the referendum, they are a minority government they have no mandate to continually re-run the referendum until they get the vote they like.
That's pretty standard right wing unionist stuff. Be content with it. There's no need to add drivel about the Northern Isles. If there's to be no further referenda, it doesn't matter what the Shetlanders think, does it?
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Old 9th February 2017, 11:00 AM   #49
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Westminster lied to Scotland to get them to vote to remain in the Union. Just like the Leavers lied abiut Brexit.
What was worse about the Scottish Referendum was that promises were made by Cameron concerning autonomy, finance and tax that have been walked back on.
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Old 9th February 2017, 11:27 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
That's pretty standard right wing unionist stuff. Be content with it. There's no need to add drivel about the Northern Isles. If there's to be no further referenda, it doesn't matter what the Shetlanders think, does it?
How often do you think there should be a referendum?
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Old 9th February 2017, 11:35 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Nor have they expressed any desire to leave the UK. The question is should they be forced to leave the UK if they vote to remain?

This is essentially the same argument as Scotland voted to remain in the EU, it is being removed against its will so a re-vote on independence is justified.
No, it's a different question. What you are suggesting would be akin to Scotland becoming a part of Germany in order to stay in the UK (or maybe more realistically Gibraltar becoming part of Spain).

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The Northern Isles have been part of a United Kingdom for longer than they have been part of a Scottish Kingdom to which they were transferred from Norway.
Completely irrelevant

Quote:
A mechanism could easily be created to allow regions of Scotland to opt in / out that is just a matter of political will.
No, it couldn't.

Quote:
It is always amusing to see what flags fly in Kirkwall when Nicola visits!

FWIW I voted on the losing side in both referenda. With the collapse in the oil price I would not vote for Scottish independence a second time, and I think Scotland in the EU and the rest of the island of Britain out is not a recipe for a successful Scottish economy. The concept of Brexit was not unheard of at the time of the Scottish referendum - UKIP existed. Certainly if there is another referendum I think it needs to be agreed that no further referenda on independence should be undertaken for e.g. 25 years, We are just facing a neverendum, I am sure that if the next referendum is lost within five years another excuse for a re-run will heard.

Get over it. The nation voted in a once in a generation vote to remain in the UK. This is what democracy is. The UK voted to leave the EU.

I want the Scottish government to concentrate on Scotland, sort out the schools etc. The SNP lost the referendum, they are a minority government they have no mandate to continually re-run the referendum until they get the vote they like.
That you supported independence as long as the oil price is high is amusing.

The concept of Brexit wasn't unheard of. But nor is the concept of living on Mars. However, the situation has changed.

Your proposal on 'no more referenda' is a bit pointless. No administration can tie the hands of a future one in that way. Nor should they be able to.

The SNP has EVERY mandate to implement its policy. If people don't like it they can vote for someone else.
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Old 9th February 2017, 11:37 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Westminster lied to Scotland to get them to vote to remain in the Union. Just like the Leavers lied abiut Brexit.
What was worse about the Scottish Referendum was that promises were made by Cameron concerning autonomy, finance and tax that have been walked back on.
Exactly. What the SNP would be doing would be holding those who lied to account for their lies. The alternative is to concede that lying is the preferred tactic as long as it gets the result you want. It shouldn't be forgotten that Cameron was on TV walking back everything he had said in the Indyref campaign before the last votes were even counted.
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Old 9th February 2017, 11:38 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
How often do you think there should be a referendum?
As often as the people of Scotland want one. How often do you think there should be one?
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Old 9th February 2017, 11:45 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
As often as the people of Scotland want one. How often do you think there should be one?

I'm not sure.


How do you know when enough people, say 50% want one? Some sort of formal poll?


How often do you think there should be a formal poll to establish if enough of the people of Scotland want a referendum?


Edit - how much do they cost? How often could Scotland afford to have a referendum?
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Old 9th February 2017, 11:50 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
I'm not sure.

How do you know when enough people, say 50% want one? Some sort of formal poll?

How often do you think there should be a formal poll to establish if enough of the people of Scotland want a referendum?

Edit - how much do they cost? How often could Scotland afford to have a referendum?
They vote for a party in the Scottish elections with 'hold a referendum' in their manifesto.

Let's face it if you elect an SNP government they are going to rightly push their agenda of Scottish independence. If you are tired of that then the answer is to vote Labour, Lib Dem or Tory in the Scottish elections.
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Old 9th February 2017, 11:53 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
As often as the people of Scotland want one. How often do you think there should be one?
1. If the referendum is the people of Scotland's wish, and only Scots get to vote in it, then who do you think should pay for it?

2. If the Scots get independence, how often should they subsequently hold referendums on whether or not they wish to rejoin the UK?
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Old 9th February 2017, 11:58 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
1. If the referendum is the people of Scotland's wish, and only Scots get to vote in it, then who do you think should pay for it?
I don't particularly care who pays for it.

Quote:
2. If the Scots get independence, how often should they subsequently hold referendums on whether or not they wish to rejoin the UK?
As often as the people of Scotland elect a party with that as their manifesto pledge. What an odd question.
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Old 9th February 2017, 12:00 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
They vote for a party in the Scottish elections with 'hold a referendum' in their manifesto.

Let's face it if you elect an SNP government they are going to rightly push their agenda of Scottish independence. If you are tired of that then the answer is to vote Labour, Lib Dem or Tory in the Scottish elections.

Once every four years at most then?
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Old 9th February 2017, 12:01 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I don't particularly care who pays for it.
I think it's an important question. If Scotland cant afford a referendum and can't persuade anyone else to pay for it it's a question that you need to answer prior to actually having any referenda.


Quote:
As often as the people of Scotland elect a party with that as their manifesto pledge. What an odd question.

So, er, once every four years at most?
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Old 9th February 2017, 12:08 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Once every four years at most then?
Well it could be less than four depending on at what point in the cycle both were held.

Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
I think it's an important question. If Scotland cant afford a referendum and can't persuade anyone else to pay for it it's a question that you need to answer prior to actually having any referenda.
The cost was apparently £15m. It's nothing in the big scheme of things. Less than a twentieth of 1 percent of the total budget.

[quote
So, er, once every four years at most?[/quote]

As above.
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Old 9th February 2017, 12:13 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Well it could be less than four depending on at what point in the cycle both were held.
More specifically, after each election where an independence party (or coalition thereof) has won a majority in the Scottish house?

If there is a small majority, which achieves independence, would you then advocate a referendum after any subsequent elections in which a unionist party held the majority?



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The cost was apparently £15m. It's nothing in the big scheme of things. Less than a twentieth of 1 percent of the total budget.
That's much less than I thought it would be. Hardly a dent in the budget. It does tend to interrupt the business of government though. Some would say that's not a bad thing.
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Old 9th February 2017, 12:26 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
More specifically, after each election where an independence party (or coalition thereof) has won a majority in the Scottish house?

If there is a small majority, which achieves independence, would you then advocate a referendum after any subsequent elections in which a unionist party held the majority?
I think any government should be able to hold a referendum on any topic they like as part of being in government. Whether thats a good move or not or whether I support that move is a separate issue.

I wouldn't 'advocate' for a union referendum but if it was in their manifesto or a clearly stated main aim of the party and they got elected they would be well within their rights to hold one. Regardless of the size of the majority for independence.

It's pretty much a non-issue (as are so many of the red herring talking points in this debate) because these scenarios are incredibly unlikely.

Quote:
That's much less than I thought it would be. Hardly a dent in the budget. It does tend to interrupt the business of government though. Some would say that's not a bad thing.
That's the cost to run the election that were incurred by the government apparently. No doubt there are other costs - not least of all the campaigning.

I imagine you could reduce it even further if you really wanted to - perhaps have the referendum on the same day as another election (local councils or whatever)
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Old 9th February 2017, 12:32 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
How often do you think there should be a referendum?
That is not the question. How often should the Scots be told that to be in the European Union they must remain in the British Union, and then be told the opposite? As often as that happens there may well be a referendum.
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Old 9th February 2017, 12:34 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I think any government should be able to hold a referendum on any topic they like as part of being in government.
Recent events have led me to believe that they are, in the main, not a good tool for government. They require a voting base that understands the issues being debated. I have a vague notion that the Scottish voting public is more informed than the English, but this could be total bobbins.



Quote:
Whether thats a good move or not or whether I support that move is a separate issue.

I wouldn't 'advocate' for a union referendum but if it was in their manifesto or a clearly stated main aim of the party and they got elected they would be well within their rights to hold one. Regardless of the size of the majority for independence.

It's pretty much a non-issue (as are so many of the red herring talking points in this debate) because these scenarios are incredibly unlikely.
I don't think it's a non-issue. Until you have a broad general agreement, which there currently isn't in Scotland, then there's always going to be the fact that those opposed come out in force mostly after they've lost a referendum. Those who are staunchly unionist are far more likely to mobilise if independence is agreed. I think that the business of the Scottish parliament should not be reduced to a constant question of independence.





Quote:
That's the cost to run the election that were incurred by the government apparently. No doubt there are other costs - not least of all the campaigning.
The cost of campaigning is not something that has to be borne by the taxpayer so is less of an issue.

Quote:
I imagine you could reduce it even further if you really wanted to - perhaps have the referendum on the same day as another election (local councils or whatever)
I don't think the cost is prohibitive. I think political fatigue would set in after a few cycles.
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Old 9th February 2017, 12:51 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
1. If the referendum is the people of Scotland's wish, and only Scots get to vote in it, then who do you think should pay for it?

2. If the Scots get independence, how often should they subsequently hold referendums on whether or not they wish to rejoin the UK?
Never. The British government made it clear that if Scotland leaves they are never, ever allowed to come back, so a referendum to rejoin the UK would be a waste of time.
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Old 9th February 2017, 01:00 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
Never. The British government made it clear that if Scotland leaves they are never, ever allowed to come back, so a referendum to rejoin the UK would be a waste of time.

Never is a long time.

One of her majesty's governments, once, said Scotland would not be allowed to reform the union.

Another of her governments, at a different time, with a different political climate would not consider themselves to be held to this.
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Old 9th February 2017, 01:02 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Never is a long time.

One of her majesty's governments, once, said Scotland would not be allowed to reform the union.

Another of her governments, at a different time, with a different political climate would not consider themselves to be held to this.
Never is the amount of time so far that every other country which gained its independence from some other country has waited to have a referendum about going back. None have ever gone back, so why should Scotland be any different?
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Old 9th February 2017, 01:39 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Never is a long time.

One of her majesty's governments, once, said Scotland would not be allowed to reform the union.

Another of her governments, at a different time, with a different political climate would not consider themselves to be held to this.
I would think a sensible precondition of such a referendum would be that the Ruk government expresses their willingness to accept such an outcome
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Old 9th February 2017, 01:40 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Recent events have led me to believe that they are, in the main, not a good tool for government. They require a voting base that understands the issues being debated. I have a vague notion that the Scottish voting public is more informed than the English, but this could be total bobbins.





I don't think it's a non-issue. Until you have a broad general agreement, which there currently isn't in Scotland, then there's always going to be the fact that those opposed come out in force mostly after they've lost a referendum. Those who are staunchly unionist are far more likely to mobilise if independence is agreed. I think that the business of the Scottish parliament should not be reduced to a constant question of independence.







The cost of campaigning is not something that has to be borne by the taxpayer so is less of an issue.



I don't think the cost is prohibitive. I think political fatigue would set in after a few cycles.
I don't like referenda either but it seems a necessary evil in this case.
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Old 9th February 2017, 01:45 PM   #70
Craig B
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
Never is the amount of time so far that every other country which gained its independence from some other country has waited to have a referendum about going back. None have ever gone back, so why should Scotland be any different?
Yes, for all the troubles that Ireland has confronted I have never heard of any political organisation being set up to promote the return of British rule. Likewise in India or any other ex-imperial possession. Independence must be an intoxicating beverage.
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Old 9th February 2017, 02:14 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
Never. The British government made it clear that if Scotland leaves they are never, ever allowed to come back, so a referendum to rejoin the UK would be a waste of time.
That's irrelevant.

We know the Scots won't be allowed to remain in, or join, the EU - but that doesn't stop the SNP from making that the excuse to hold an independence referendum.

So the fact that Scotland wouldn't be allowed back into the UK should be no barrier to a Scottish unionist party holding a referendum to rejoin.

It's clear that Scottish referendums are just about what Scots would like to happen - whether or not those things are achievable in reality is apparently unimportant.
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Old 9th February 2017, 02:34 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
That's irrelevant.

We know the Scots won't be allowed to remain in, or join, the EU - but that doesn't stop the SNP from making that the excuse to hold an independence referendum.

So the fact that Scotland wouldn't be allowed back into the UK should be no barrier to a Scottish unionist party holding a referendum to rejoin.

It's clear that Scottish referendums are just about what Scots would like to happen - whether or not those things are achievable in reality is apparently unimportant.
Nonsense. Of course Scotland could join the EU, there might be a bit of a wait but there's no doubt they would be allowed back in.
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Old 9th February 2017, 04:26 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post

We know the Scots won't be allowed to remain in, or join, the EU.
You know that do you?

Get back to finding that 350m you owe the NHS
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Old 9th February 2017, 05:16 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
Nonsense. Of course Scotland could join the EU, there might be a bit of a wait but there's no doubt they would be allowed back in.
EU officials and ministers of several EU member countries have repeatedly stated that Scotland won't be allowed to join, but I accept they may change their minds once the UK has completed Brexit - providing, of course, that an independent Scotland is able to meet the required economic standards.
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Old 9th February 2017, 05:24 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
EU officials and ministers of several EU member countries have repeatedly stated that Scotland won't be allowed to join, but I accept they may change their minds once the UK has completed Brexit - providing, of course, that an independent Scotland is able to meet the required economic standards.
No they haven't. The likes of Barroso and Quinn - who are Portuguese and Irish respectively - were pontificating during the last referendum that Spain and Belgium would veto them. Given that neither of those two have any power to speak for Spain or Belgium they can be safely ignored.

Besides, that was pre-Brexit, when they were trying to do a favour for their friend Dave. Post Brexit, even Barroso and Quinn have gone quiet.
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Old 9th February 2017, 06:08 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Partitioning isn't always a disaster. The Czech Republic and Slovakia seem to have separated peacefully and successfully.
That was only because the German army juggernaut was looking over it. You are referring to the separation in 1939, aren't you?

But the Czech/Slovak divorce in 1993 is really the only case in history which I can think of where a state peacefully split into two parts.
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Old 9th February 2017, 06:27 PM   #77
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The brave brexiteers hopes to stop johnny foreigner coming over appear to be dashed.

Meanwhile, trumps pick to be ambassador to the EU who not only wants to break the EU, comparing it to communism, somehow, enjoys talking bulshi sorry alternate facts too.
Bring in the clowns.
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Old 10th February 2017, 12:43 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I don't particularly care who pays for it.



As often as the people of Scotland elect a party with that as their manifesto pledge. What an odd question.
So you accept that since the SNP are a minority government they have no mandate for a further referendum. The people of Scoitland voted against independence in the referendum, then the SNP went from a majority to a minority party. Seems to me two successive votes giving a message about the will of the Scottish people.

So was it a lie about the referenda being a once in a generation vote? Was it a lie about Scotland being able to remain in the EU.

I put a lot of time and worry into my once in a lifetime vote. I resent that sore losers want to waste that effort.

Perhaps it would be easier on us all if there could just be a referendum on having a referendum. Then we could just vote on whether we wanted a year of campaigning every four years when we had an election, just add a question to the ballot, Do you authorise the government to hold an independence referendum in the next four years.

The problem about mandate arguments is that one may vote for the SNP but not vote for independence. As it happens the SNP did not commit to a repeat referendum in their election manifesto so they cannot claim that as justification. So the current SNP government is a minority government without a clear commitment to a repeat referendum in their manifesto.

At least we have some honesty, that for some people the plan is a referendum every four years until they get the decision they want then never again. Statistically a very dubious process.
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Old 10th February 2017, 01:57 AM   #79
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I imagine that privately, Germans are very pleased by the disastrous British approach to Brexit.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38925440

One of the biggest EU-focused businesses in the UK is euro-denominated clearing - insurance products called derivatives, which allow companies to protect themselves from movements in currencies, interest rates and inflation.

Three-quarters of the multi-trillion-pounds-a-day market is executed in London and a recent report from the accountancy firm EY estimated that nearly 83,000 jobs could be lost in Britain over the next seven years if clearing has to move to an EU member state following Brexit.


Note, that's just the largest segment of the Euro-denominated part of business made in London City. Some of other other stuff is bound to relocate as well. 83,000 jobs, assuming they're just making average wage (most likely wildly false) and jobs are the only thing that is lost (false) is already 43 million pounds per week in lost gross national income to UK. To put it in perspective, that's almost half the net British contribution to EU.

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Old 10th February 2017, 02:03 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
So you accept that since the SNP are a minority government they have no mandate for a further referendum. The people of Scoitland voted against independence in the referendum, then the SNP went from a majority to a minority party. Seems to me two successive votes giving a message about the will of the Scottish people.
The next vote after the referendum, and the one that reflects the view of Westminster yielded this result
Labour loses 40 seats as the party is crushed by the SNP, while the Lib Dems lose 10 of their 11 seats to Nicola Sturgeon's party.
You didn't mention that, which may be the most comprehensive victory ever gained in a democratic election in a European country in living memory, if not ever. The Scottish election produced this
The Scottish National Party won the election and a third term in government, but fell two seats short of securing a second consecutive overall majority. The Conservatives saw a significant increase in support and displaced the Labour Party as the second largest party at the Scottish Parliament.
So your post is the usual unionist propaganda,

Quote:
I put a lot of time and worry into my once in a lifetime vote. I resent that sore losers want to waste that effort.
I'm sorry you find democracy so onerous. If the alt right gets its way, you won't be troubled by having to get out of your bed so often. You'll be having a "never in a lifetime" vote.
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