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Old 18th October 2017, 08:19 AM   #3481
The Don
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Originally Posted by Henri McPhee View Post
One of my sisters is now complaining about bloody Boris Johnson with regard to Brexit.
...sounds about right.
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Old 19th October 2017, 09:04 AM   #3482
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I have two sisters who are opposed to Brexit and two brothers who seem to broadly support Brexit. I have another brother who I don't know about his opinions on Brexit. He may not have any opinions on Brexit.

I voted in 1975 for a competitive common market. My father was all for it at the time. I didn't vote in the 2016 referendum. I don't want the UK to be an EU province in a European Political Union. Either way the interests of the extremely rich will be safeguarded, while I think people who are not extremely rich will be expected to live on air with cuts and closures to public spending and industries moving to Europe.
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Old 20th October 2017, 12:37 AM   #3483
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Several interesting updates:

The Bombardier trade dispute may be fixed by coming to a deal with Airbus and thus coming under the protection of the EU in the future:

Quote:
Airbus will get a 50.01% stake in the CSeries, and in exchange, it will help get the plane to markets around the world.

The wings will still be made in Northern Ireland, but planes bound for US markets will be assembled at Airbus' US plant in Alabama, which could help the companies avoid US duties.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-41656158

Whether such a deal would have been struck if the UK was out of the EU is a good question.

Meanwhile in the financial services sector, the predictions of "Project Fear" look like they're in the process of coming about:

Quote:
Goldman Sachs boss Lloyd Blankfein has delivered a hint that Frankfurt will become a key European base for the Wall Street giant post-Brexit.

He tweeted: "Just left Frankfurt. Great meetings, great weather, really enjoyed it. Good, because I'll be spending a lot more time there. #Brexit".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41677332

I suppose this will mean less reliance on the Financial Services Sector in the future

Meanwhile Theresa May is urging EU leaders to do more

Quote:
Theresa May has urged EU leaders to create a "dynamic" in Brexit talks that "enables us to move forward together", at a working dinner in Brussels.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41684111

She's also bullish about progress, despite not being in the meeting

Quote:
Mrs May, excluded from Friday's meeting, told leaders on Thursday that "firm progress" was being made.
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Old 20th October 2017, 12:41 AM   #3484
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Dupe

Last edited by The Don; 20th October 2017 at 12:43 AM.
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Old 20th October 2017, 12:58 AM   #3485
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I suppose this will mean less reliance on the Financial Services Sector in the future
In the same way that cutting the cords means I have less reliance on my parachute as I'm sky diving...
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Old 20th October 2017, 06:46 AM   #3486
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Dupe
Are we still talking about Theresa...?
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Old 20th October 2017, 07:57 AM   #3487
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http://www.politico.eu/article/brexi...eal-departure/

immediate consequences of a no deql Brexit
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Old 20th October 2017, 08:16 AM   #3488
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
http://www.politico.eu/article/brexi...eal-departure/

immediate consequences of a no deql Brexit
A rather uncomfortable read. I note that the UK government is making contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit but find it quite frankly alarming that there is literally no set of circumstances that would have them reconsider the wisdom of the Brexit process in-toto.
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Old 20th October 2017, 08:45 AM   #3489
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
A rather uncomfortable read. I note that the UK government is making contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit but find it quite frankly alarming that there is literally no set of circumstances that would have them reconsider the wisdom of the Brexit process in-toto.
Really, they aren't.

They are making a slight pretence of doing so, but its not going to fool anyone.

Preparations for a no deal would include vast new physical infrastructure and new IT systems at the channel ports, as well as passing new primary legislation to found a whole swathe of new regulatory authorities, recruiting and training the staff, procuring premises, and building the new bespoke IT solutions they would require.

All of this would take many years and cost tens of £bns. Maybe hundreds of £bns.

'tis more likely that Boris Johnson will fit through the eye of a needle than preparation for a no deal can be in place on time.
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Old 20th October 2017, 09:15 AM   #3490
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Originally Posted by Hubert Cumberdale View Post
Really, they aren't.

They are making a slight pretence of doing so, but its not going to fool anyone.

Preparations for a no deal would include vast new physical infrastructure and new IT systems at the channel ports, as well as passing new primary legislation to found a whole swathe of new regulatory authorities, recruiting and training the staff, procuring premises, and building the new bespoke IT solutions they would require.

All of this would take many years and cost tens of £bns. Maybe hundreds of £bns.

'tis more likely that Boris Johnson will fit through the eye of a needle than preparation for a no deal can be in place on time.
Good points.

I guess it is more accurate to say that the UK Government is publicly accepting that there is a significant chance that the UK could end up leaving the EU with no deal in place and revert to WTO terms (with the chaos and economic turmoil that would result) - and they're more fine about that than the prospect of knocking Brexit on the head or entering a "permanent transitional arrangement".

Last edited by The Don; 20th October 2017 at 09:18 AM.
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Old 20th October 2017, 11:35 AM   #3491
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You're still not living in the real world. Why should any government be able to 'knock something on the head' after they have held a referendum to decide the matter and then subsequently themselves voted overwhelmingly to accept the verdict of that referendum?
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Old 20th October 2017, 11:49 AM   #3492
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You're still not living in the real world. Why should any government be able to 'knock something on the head' after they have held a referendum to decide the matter and then subsequently themselves voted overwhelmingly to accept the verdict of that referendum?
Because they have the right to do so? As you've already conceded the referendum was purely advisory and Theresa May is apparently in receipt of legal advice that the government is entitled to revoke article 50. So if the deal on offer is clearly worse than continued membership why on Earth would they go ahead with it?
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Old 20th October 2017, 11:57 AM   #3493
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So, we're all stood at the top of the waterslide, we've had a vote and a little discussion and we're all going down the waterslide, it'll be fun.

Later, we discover that, at the bottom of the waterslide, there's a fifty foot drop onto a spike.

Ceptimus decides, as we've had a vote, he's going down the slide.
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Old 20th October 2017, 10:59 PM   #3494
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
So, we're all stood at the top of the waterslide, we've had a vote and a little discussion and we're all going down the waterslide, it'll be fun.

Later, we discover that, at the bottom of the waterslide, there's a fifty foot drop onto a spike.

Ceptimus decides, as we've had a vote, he's going down the slide.
....and that we all have to come with him.
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Old 20th October 2017, 11:58 PM   #3495
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Poor analogy choice as it implies that some could go down the slide while some remain behind.

This was a group choice. Of those that chose to vote, the majority of the group were in favour and the group leaders subsequently announced that they agreed with the decision and were determined to carry it out. The attitude of most of the group remains, "Just get on with it!" A vocal minority are still trying to reverse the decision by any and all means possible.
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Old 21st October 2017, 12:00 AM   #3496
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What's with all these duplicate-posts lately? I suppose we can blame that on Brexit too.

Last edited by ceptimus; 21st October 2017 at 12:09 AM.
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Old 21st October 2017, 12:14 AM   #3497
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
What's with all these duplicate-posts lately? I suppose we can blame that on Brexit too.
I know it was just joke, but quick answer is: Some of other threads on forum are getting too big for forum SW to handle. (Duplicate posts are one of main symptoms)
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Old 21st October 2017, 12:25 AM   #3498
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Poor analogy choice as it implies that some could go down the slide while some remain behind.

This was a group choice. Of those that chose to vote, the majority of the group were in favour and the group leaders subsequently announced that they agreed with the decision and were determined to carry it out. The attitude of most of the group remains, "Just get on with it!" A vocal minority are still trying to reverse the decision by any and all means possible.
But they didn't know about the spike, did they? Being able to take in new information, change one's mind and admit error is the way adults are supposed to behave, not least when the future of the entire country is in peril.
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Old 21st October 2017, 04:37 AM   #3499
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In terms of your analogy, I think there isn't a spike. Project Fear was warning of knives, rotating blades, boiling oil, demons, and so on - even before the vote was taken. After the result went against their personal preference they've continued to invent other imagined hazards to try to get people to change their minds.

To get back to the real issue, the problem is that the constant moaning by remainers isn't actually preventing the Brexit process - but by dangling the prospect of a non-Brexit in front of the negotiators (on both sides) it is allowing them to be more comfortable with their lack of progress - and this will ultimately benefit no one. It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.
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Old 21st October 2017, 04:56 AM   #3500
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
In terms of your analogy, I think there isn't a spike. Project Fear was warning of knives, rotating blades, boiling oil, demons, and so on - even before the vote was taken. After the result went against their personal preference they've continued to invent other imagined hazards to try to get people to change their minds.

To get back to the real issue, the problem is that the constant moaning by remainers isn't actually preventing the Brexit process - but by dangling the prospect of a non-Brexit in front of the negotiators (on both sides) it is allowing them to be more comfortable with their lack of progress - and this will ultimately benefit no one. It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.
The most that 'getting on board' could consist of would be saying nothing. I cannot be cheering it on because I don't believe that any form of it could be anything other than catastrophic, and I have seen no evidence that would suggest otherwise. But you think that when I (rightly or wrongly) see my country as being led into disaster, the right thing for me to do would be to encourage that?
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Old 21st October 2017, 05:05 AM   #3501
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Duplicate
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Last edited by Pixel42; 21st October 2017 at 05:28 AM.
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Old 21st October 2017, 05:09 AM   #3502
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Apparently the right thing to do if you're locked in a house with people who have just set fire to it is to help them burn it down.
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Old 21st October 2017, 05:11 AM   #3503
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
In terms of your analogy, I think there isn't a spike. Project Fear was warning of knives, rotating blades, boiling oil, demons, and so on - even before the vote was taken. After the result went against their personal preference they've continued to invent other imagined hazards to try to get people to change their minds.

To get back to the real issue, the problem is that the constant moaning by remainers isn't actually preventing the Brexit process - but by dangling the prospect of a non-Brexit in front of the negotiators (on both sides) it is allowing them to be more comfortable with their lack of progress - and this will ultimately benefit no one. It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.

Er, the problems with the UK leaving the EU will only happen once the UK has left the EU. All that happens beforehand is that people factor in the likely effects and, say the currency gets devalued, so that inflation rises.
to use the slide analogy, we've been on the slide since March 31, 2017 but the ride is only going to get bumpy after March 31, 2019. Pretending anything else is just silly.




As for the problems ahead:

Do you have any idea how many goods are transported between the UK and the EU? Do you have any idea hoe the UK customs are going to deal with this on April 1st 2019? Do you have any idea what is going to happen with flights to the EU27 on April 1st 2019? Do you have any idea what is going to happen with perishable foods travelling either direction on April 1st 2019?

If you do, please could you inform Theresa May. If you do, can you also explain how these are not going to be disasters?


Pretending that this is the fault of the people who are pointing this out is even sillier.

Pretending that Theresa May has a clear negotiating position is rubbish - she is being ambiguous, because as soon as she is clear on her position she'll lose support. However that is not tenable when we have until March 2019 to finalise everything.

ETA: and I have reported this thread for housekeeping as it's getting long
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Last edited by jimbob; 21st October 2017 at 05:38 AM.
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Old 21st October 2017, 05:12 AM   #3504
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.
Oh good. How? As a software engineer should I start work on the IT systems for HMRC to handle the WTO tariffs at ports? Perhaps I should hack into the Home Office systems and make them fit for purpose? Either should only take me a few decades. No other bugger seems to be doing it.

This is one of the sillier mantras from brexiteers - that if we all come together and sing Kumbaya all these nasty factsessss will just disappear and we'll begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure.
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Old 21st October 2017, 05:26 AM   #3505
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Another duplicate.

Time to split the thread?
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Last edited by Pixel42; 21st October 2017 at 05:31 AM.
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Old 21st October 2017, 05:36 AM   #3506
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I've just reported this thread for housekeeping
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US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
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Old 21st October 2017, 05:49 AM   #3507
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Mod Info This thread is getting long and unwieldy, so please head here to continue the conversation.
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