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Tags | Brexit , Theresa May , uk elections , uk politics |
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View Poll Results: How long will UK Prime Minister Theresa May Last? | ![]() |
She'll last a month at most |
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8 | 17.78% |
She won't last out the week |
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3 | 6.67% |
She'll last for two weeks |
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2 | 4.44% |
She'll last until the next Tory Conference in October 2017 |
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20 | 44.44% |
She'll last until the next General Election |
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8 | 17.78% |
She'll ride out the storm and serve the full term |
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2 | 4.44% |
Who cares <shrug>? |
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2 | 4.44% |
Voters: 45. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Moomin Valley
Posts: 14,924
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How Long Will Theresa May Last as Prime Minister (UK)
So, how long WILL Theresa May last as Prime Minister?
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If man has no tea in him, he is incapable of understanding truth and beauty. ~ Japanese Proverb |
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#2 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Leicester Square, London
Posts: 6,463
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I don't know but I will say this: her days are numbered.
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#3 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Leicester Square, London
Posts: 6,463
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One might even say "(very) numbered".
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#4 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,424
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You missed the opportunity of having "June will be the end of May" as an option?
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#5 |
Incurable Optimist
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 3,575
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After hearing the news today about the resignation, i.e. pretty much enforced resignation, of her long-term advisers who were
apparently disliked by many MPs, I think she will remain as PM for quite a while, regardless of how much her power and influence are diminished. So I did not vote as this option wasn't there. |
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#6 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,424
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#7 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 5,345
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My suspicion is they will let her carry the can for the upcoming Brexit shambles then boot her.
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"I love sex and drugs and sausage rolls But nothing compares to Archie Gemmill's goal" |
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#8 |
Now. Do it now.
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 24,804
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Autumn. The Tories get the summer recess to quietly line up the candidates, and then away we go. The fact is that they'll never let her near another election, so there is absolutely zero chance of her surviving 5 years. Two thirds of Conservative members polled at Conservative Home want her gone now, but wiser heads are probably trying to get the Brexit negotiations going first.
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"The Conservatives want to keep wogs out and march boldly back to the 1950s when Britain still had an Empire and blacks, women, poofs and Irish knew their place." The Don That's what we've sunk to here. |
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#9 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 16,309
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She's lost the mandate to negotiate the Brexit. She'll have to eat dirt to get majorities nationally, she'll meet with plenty of grinning faces in Brussels.
If she has any self respect, she'll try all possible routes out of this mess, discover they are all very short, and resign in short order. Two weeks is my vote - enough time to exhaust all options. |
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) |
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#10 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Moomin Valley
Posts: 14,924
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Only problem is, the DUP-Conservative agreement is fraught with difficulties.
a) It is likely to seriously undermine the Good Friday Agreement (the government brokering the reconciliation of divided communities in Norn). b) The Sinn Fein and Democratic Unionists are in the midst of a major feud, one of many. c) Already apx 535,000 people have signed a petition protesting against the alliance within a single day. d) As you say, two thirds of Conservative Party members want her out now. Given the ridicule and mocking in foreign newspapers - especially in EU papers (for example DAS BILD's 'Der Eirende Lady [i.e., the weak wobbly Lady {cf. Iron Lady Thatcher}]) - one wonders whether there is any confidence in May spearheading the Brexit deal, given the mass rejection by British voters. The Tories are said to have spent £143million on their election campaign. Will the Conservative party want to throw good money after bad? Notwithstanding she cannot resign before the Queen's speech without handing over power to Jeremy Corbyn. No wonder Conservatives in the media can be seen to be frothing at the mouth today. Can they afford to wait until the autumn conference? |
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If man has no tea in him, he is incapable of understanding truth and beauty. ~ Japanese Proverb |
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#11 |
Muse
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 867
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A Belgian newspaper published a little more than one hour ago that five ministers have asked Boris Johnson to replace Theresa May.
Do they really think it would be fun for the Brits to have their home made version of Donald Trump at the 10 Downing Street ? |
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#12 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,424
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__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#13 |
Winking at the Moon
Moderator Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 12,698
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Before this morning's resignations, I'd have said she'd limp along to the summer recess and then resign in October.
But as she's shown herself vulnerable to ultimatums, I reckon she'll be gone by the end of July at the longest. Yesterday she was told "sack the advisers or face a leadership challenge", and bingo, the advisers resigned. Now she has even fewer bargaining chips available to see off the next ultimatum. By making a pact with the loathsome DUP she's put the NI peace process in jeopardy and risked the Scottish Tories breaking away to form their own party. I suspect every one of her MPs is facing a barrage of tweets and emails from constituents objecting to this pact. |
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Why can't you be more like Agatha? - Loss Leader |
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#14 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Moomin Valley
Posts: 14,924
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There is a petition against the DUP-Conservative government alliance here.
There are over 630,000 signatures already. |
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If man has no tea in him, he is incapable of understanding truth and beauty. ~ Japanese Proverb |
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#15 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Moomin Valley
Posts: 14,924
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Remember how the ruthless conservatives had to drag Maggie Thatcher out of No.10 shouting and screaming...? Or the time an outgoing PM hid in the garden...?
History shows it is probably better to resign straight away and retain one's dignity.
Quote:
Maybe wiki will soon read as follows: 'May announced on **/**/2017 that she would stand down as Conservative Party Leader, with a view to a successor being chosen before the next Conservative Party Conference in October 2017. The following day, negotiations between the Conservative Party and the Democratic Unionists to form a coalition government failed. During the evening, May visited Buckingham Palace to tender her resignation as Prime Minister to Queen Elizabeth II and to recommend that she invite the Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, to form a government. She resigned as leader of the Conservative Party with immediate effect.' |
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If man has no tea in him, he is incapable of understanding truth and beauty. ~ Japanese Proverb |
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#16 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 42,555
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A lot of the political anaylists are saying that the only thing that kept the 1922 Committee (The Tory Party Tribal Elders.) from sacking May on Friday was they felt it was important to start the Britex negotations on time. and that would have been impossible with a leadership crisis over who would be the next PM.May might well be functioning as a caretaker until the Tribal Elders decide on who would be a good replacement.
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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#17 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,424
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__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#18 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 22,987
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I have a crazy idea; I wonder what Britons think of this:
A 'grand coalition' between the Conservatives and Labour, which would last until the Brexit process is complete, on the understanding that new elections would be called after Brexit. Each side agrees not to push for any drastic changes to domestic policies in the meantime (unless both parties agree). Could partisan disagreements be set aside temporarily for the good of the country? |
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A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare |
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#19 |
Mafia Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 19,576
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__________________
"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
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#20 |
Mafia Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 19,576
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"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
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#21 |
Mafia Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 19,576
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However, Corbyn does not get a majority coalition. He'd need the DUP for that too.
The Tories simply have to drink out this cup they've served themselves. The other minor parties that could give them a majority - LibDem, SNP - are both anti-Brexit, no way they'll affix their name to that. A grand coalition with Labour seems unthinkable in this polarized climate. So, it's either a Tory minority government, or a toxic coalition with the DUP, or new elections - well that's fun ![]() |
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"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
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#22 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,424
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At least that would have the advantage of each party being able to blame the other when it goes tits up.
But, no, it wouldn't fly for a number of reasons. Both main parties apparently have very different ideas about what Brexit should look like. Though how they disagree is not really clear. But secondly, you cannot set aside domestic politics for years when you have to create budgets which involves important questions about spending on health and education, and taxation. |
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#23 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,620
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They must be the French and Germans of the EU, who will take over the United Kingdom and divide it, by letting the Scots and Welsh set up pseudo-independent vassal states within the EU, give Loyal Ulster to the Republic of Ireland, and Gibraltar to Spain.
This is the nightmare of the unionists. Perhaps the DUP will save the British Union from this horrid fate. |
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#24 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,590
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Is anyone else really mad enough to want the job right now? Dealing with the DUP, trying to negotiate a brexit deal that won't split the Conservative party and of course being at the mercy of any handful of backbenchers with a pet cause they want to advance.
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So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/ And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX |
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#25 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 5,095
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#26 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 5,345
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Not sure where this idea of Scottish Tories being opposed to the DUP came from. Their leader might not be a fan because of her personal situation but a sizeable chunk of their support in scotland came from the very same sash wearing flute blowing knuckledraggers that make up the DUP. Many Scots Tory voters will be delighted with this outcome.
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"I love sex and drugs and sausage rolls But nothing compares to Archie Gemmill's goal" |
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#27 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 5,345
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The SNP have said they would work with Labour but I think they would be looking for a commitment to keep Scotland in the single market (which probably means keeping the uk in as a whole). Lib Dems have only ever wanted another referendum to ratify the deal which I think labour could accommodate too. I reckon the SNP would also demand some further powers devolved probably including constitutional ones. Ie the right to hold further binding referenda on independence
Of course that still just gets you at best a just about viable minority government |
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"I love sex and drugs and sausage rolls But nothing compares to Archie Gemmill's goal" |
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#28 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 5,345
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This is more or less my thought as well. Whoever takes over probably isn't going to make it to the next election let alone beyond that. It's only surely attractive to someone who would normally have no chance which is precisely the kind of person you don't want in the job.
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"I love sex and drugs and sausage rolls But nothing compares to Archie Gemmill's goal" |
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#29 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,620
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#30 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 30,758
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"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
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#31 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Leicester Square, London
Posts: 6,463
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The Observer verdict on May:
Quote:
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#32 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 5,345
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I don't disagree with this but the alternatives seem just as bad or worse. Labour did worse in the election so have even less authority or credibility. Another Tory leader will have the same problems plus not having been elected by the public.
May really has to reach out to all parties to try to cobble together some consensus on Brexit rather than focus on her narrow view of what it means. I think that's the only way forward now. |
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"I love sex and drugs and sausage rolls But nothing compares to Archie Gemmill's goal" |
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#33 |
Mafia Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 19,576
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__________________
"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
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#34 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,092
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I think she will last until Brexit negotiations have concluded and will be unable to get the legislation through parliament and we will have another general election.
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Long time lurker |
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#35 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,424
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True enough. He might cheer people up by becoming PM because of his charmingly disheveled tomfoolery. But maybe as mentioned above it will be someone who would otherwise be seen as no hopers in normal times. The next Tory leader could be anyone then. Maybe the Tory equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn.
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__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#36 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,620
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#37 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,092
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Long time lurker |
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#38 |
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 39,634
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Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes |
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#39 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Moomin Valley
Posts: 14,924
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Rolling about laughing to see sacked ex-Chancellor, now EVENING STANDARD Editor, George Osborne, continuing to stick the knife in May, calling her a, 'Dead Woman Walking' and 'on Death Row', whilst smiling gleefully.
He is having enormous fun, putting out a headline on Friday, 'Hung Out to Dry', over a picture of a gurning Theresa May. |
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If man has no tea in him, he is incapable of understanding truth and beauty. ~ Japanese Proverb |
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#40 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,590
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Apparently even he isn't that insane:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40231623
Quote:
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__________________
So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/ And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX |
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