How Long Will Theresa May Last as Prime Minister (UK)

[Vixen]

So, how long WILL Theresa May last as Prime Minister?

[Matthew Best]

I don't know but I will say this: her days are numbered.

[Matthew Best]

One might even say "(very) numbered".

[angrysoba]

You missed the opportunity of having "June will be the end of May" as an option?

[SusanB-M1]

After hearing the news today about the resignation, i.e. pretty much enforced resignation, of her long-term advisers who were
apparently disliked by many MPs, I think she will remain as PM for quite a while, regardless of how much her power and influence are diminished. So I did not vote as this option wasn't there.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by SusanB-M1

After hearing the news today about the resignation, i.e. pretty much enforced resignation, of her long-term advisers who were
apparently disliked by many MPs, I think she will remain as PM for quite a while, regardless of how much her power and influence are diminished. So I did not vote as this option wasn't there.

Great! And if she makes a pig's ear of Brexit she can sack the people she appointed to advise her on that as well.

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

My suspicion is they will let her carry the can for the upcoming Brexit shambles then boot her.

[MikeG]

Autumn. The Tories get the summer recess to quietly line up the candidates, and then away we go. The fact is that they'll never let her near another election, so there is absolutely zero chance of her surviving 5 years. Two thirds of Conservative members polled at Conservative Home want her gone now, but wiser heads are probably trying to get the Brexit negotiations going first.

[Oystein]

She's lost the mandate to negotiate the Brexit. She'll have to eat dirt to get majorities nationally, she'll meet with plenty of grinning faces in Brussels.

If she has any self respect, she'll try all possible routes out of this mess, discover they are all very short, and resign in short order.

Two weeks is my vote - enough time to exhaust all options.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by MikeG

Autumn. The Tories get the summer recess to quietly line up the candidates, and then away we go. The fact is that they'll never let her near another election, so there is absolutely zero chance of her surviving 5 years. Two thirds of Conservative members polled at Conservative Home want her gone now, but wiser heads are probably trying to get the Brexit negotiations going first.

Only problem is, the DUP-Conservative agreement is fraught with difficulties.

a) It is likely to seriously undermine the Good Friday Agreement (the government brokering the reconciliation of divided communities in Norn).

b) The Sinn Fein and Democratic Unionists are in the midst of a major feud, one of many.

c) Already apx 535,000 people have signed a petition protesting against the alliance within a single day.

d) As you say, two thirds of Conservative Party members want her out now.


Given the ridicule and mocking in foreign newspapers - especially in EU papers (for example DAS BILD's 'Der Eirende Lady [i.e., the weak wobbly Lady {cf. Iron Lady Thatcher}]) - one wonders whether there is any confidence in May spearheading the Brexit deal, given the mass rejection by British voters.

The Tories are said to have spent £143million on their election campaign. Will the Conservative party want to throw good money after bad?

Notwithstanding she cannot resign before the Queen's speech without handing over power to Jeremy Corbyn.

No wonder Conservatives in the media can be seen to be frothing at the mouth today.

Can they afford to wait until the autumn conference?

[Degeneve]

A Belgian newspaper published a little more than one hour ago that five ministers have asked Boris Johnson to replace Theresa May.

Do they really think it would be fun for the Brits to have their home made version of Donald Trump at the 10 Downing Street ?

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Degeneve

A Belgian newspaper published a little more than one hour ago that five ministers have asked Boris Johnson to replace Theresa May.

Do they really think it would be fun for the Brits to have their home made version of Donald Trump at the 10 Downing Street ?

Fun, yes. Smart, no.

[Agatha]

Before this morning's resignations, I'd have said she'd limp along to the summer recess and then resign in October.

But as she's shown herself vulnerable to ultimatums, I reckon she'll be gone by the end of July at the longest.

Yesterday she was told "sack the advisers or face a leadership challenge", and bingo, the advisers resigned. Now she has even fewer bargaining chips available to see off the next ultimatum.

By making a pact with the loathsome DUP she's put the NI peace process in jeopardy and risked the Scottish Tories breaking away to form their own party. I suspect every one of her MPs is facing a barrage of tweets and emails from constituents objecting to this pact.

[Vixen]

There is a petition against the DUP-Conservative government alliance here.

There are over 630,000 signatures already.

[Vixen]

Remember how the ruthless conservatives had to drag Maggie Thatcher out of No.10 shouting and screaming...? Or the time an outgoing PM hid in the garden...?

History shows it is probably better to resign straight away and retain one's dignity.

Quote:

In April 2010, Brown asked the Queen to dissolve Parliament. The General Election campaign included the first televised leadership debates in Britain. The result of the election on 6 May was a hung parliament.[126] Brown was re-elected as MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath with 29,559 votes.

Brown announced on 10 May 2010 that he would stand down as Labour Leader, with a view to a successor being chosen before the next Labour Party Conference in September 2010.[129] The following day, negotiations between the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats to form a coalition government failed. During the evening, Brown visited Buckingham Palace to tender his resignation as Prime Minister to Queen Elizabeth II and to recommend that she invite the Leader of the Opposition, David Cameron, to form a government.[130] He resigned as leader of the Labour Party with immediate effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Brown


Maybe wiki will soon read as follows:

'May announced on **/**/2017 that she would stand down as Conservative Party Leader, with a view to a successor being chosen before the next Conservative Party Conference in October 2017. The following day, negotiations between the Conservative Party and the Democratic Unionists to form a coalition government failed. During the evening, May visited Buckingham Palace to tender her resignation as Prime Minister to Queen Elizabeth II and to recommend that she invite the Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, to form a government. She resigned as leader of the Conservative Party with immediate effect.'

[dudalb]

A lot of the political anaylists are saying that the only thing that kept the 1922 Committee (The Tory Party Tribal Elders.) from sacking May on Friday was they felt it was important to start the Britex negotations on time. and that would have been impossible with a leadership crisis over who would be the next PM.May might well be functioning as a caretaker until the Tribal Elders decide on who would be a good replacement.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by dudalb

A lot of the political anaylists are saying that the only thing that kept the 1922 Committee (The Tory Party Tribal Elders.)

The 1922 Committee is not really the Tory Party Tribal Elders - it is a group of backbench MPs (i.e non-Cabinet MPs).

[Puppycow]

I have a crazy idea; I wonder what Britons think of this:

A 'grand coalition' between the Conservatives and Labour, which would last until the Brexit process is complete, on the understanding that new elections would be called after Brexit. Each side agrees not to push for any drastic changes to domestic policies in the meantime (unless both parties agree). Could partisan disagreements be set aside temporarily for the good of the country?

[ddt]

Originally Posted by Matthew Best

I don't know but I will say this: her days are numbered.

Mene mene tekel upharsin.

Quote:

Daniel read it "Mene, mene, tekel, upharsin" and explained it to mean that God had "numbered" the kingdom of Belshazzar and brought it to an end; that the king had been weighed and found wanting; and that his kingdom was divided and given to the Medes and Persians (Dan. v. 1-28).

I don't know who the Medes and Persians are in this case, though.

[ddt]

Originally Posted by Degeneve

A Belgian newspaper published a little more than one hour ago that five ministers have asked Boris Johnson to replace Theresa May.

Do they really think it would be fun for the Brits to have their home made version of Donald Trump at the 10 Downing Street ?

It would be lots of fun. Boris might even manage at a Brexit meeting to insult less than 20 EU member states. Once.

Lots of fun, but not for the Brits, I think.

[ddt]

Originally Posted by Vixen

'May announced on **/**/2017 that she would stand down as Conservative Party Leader, with a view to a successor being chosen before the next Conservative Party Conference in October 2017. The following day, negotiations between the Conservative Party and the Democratic Unionists to form a coalition government failed. During the evening, May visited Buckingham Palace to tender her resignation as Prime Minister to Queen Elizabeth II and to recommend that she invite the Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, to form a government. She resigned as leader of the Conservative Party with immediate effect.'

However, Corbyn does not get a majority coalition. He'd need the DUP for that too.

The Tories simply have to drink out this cup they've served themselves. The other minor parties that could give them a majority - LibDem, SNP - are both anti-Brexit, no way they'll affix their name to that. A grand coalition with Labour seems unthinkable in this polarized climate. So, it's either a Tory minority government, or a toxic coalition with the DUP, or new elections - well that's fun

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I have a crazy idea; I wonder what Britons think of this:

A 'grand coalition' between the Conservatives and Labour, which would last until the Brexit process is complete, on the understanding that new elections would be called after Brexit. Each side agrees not to push for any drastic changes to domestic policies in the meantime (unless both parties agree). Could partisan disagreements be set aside temporarily for the good of the country?

At least that would have the advantage of each party being able to blame the other when it goes tits up.

But, no, it wouldn't fly for a number of reasons.

Both main parties apparently have very different ideas about what Brexit should look like. Though how they disagree is not really clear.

But secondly, you cannot set aside domestic politics for years when you have to create budgets which involves important questions about spending on health and education, and taxation.

[Craig B]

Originally Posted by ddt

Mene mene tekel upharsin.



I don't know who the Medes and Persians are in this case, though.

They must be the French and Germans of the EU, who will take over the United Kingdom and divide it, by letting the Scots and Welsh set up pseudo-independent vassal states within the EU, give Loyal Ulster to the Republic of Ireland, and Gibraltar to Spain.

This is the nightmare of the unionists. Perhaps the DUP will save the British Union from this horrid fate.

[Garrison]

Is anyone else really mad enough to want the job right now? Dealing with the DUP, trying to negotiate a brexit deal that won't split the Conservative party and of course being at the mercy of any handful of backbenchers with a pet cause they want to advance.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by ddt

Boris might even manage at a Brexit meeting to insult less than 20 EU member states.

Only because he'd insult four or five and forget who the rest are.

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Originally Posted by Agatha

Before this morning's resignations, I'd have said she'd limp along to the summer recess and then resign in October.

But as she's shown herself vulnerable to ultimatums, I reckon she'll be gone by the end of July at the longest.

Yesterday she was told "sack the advisers or face a leadership challenge", and bingo, the advisers resigned. Now she has even fewer bargaining chips available to see off the next ultimatum.

By making a pact with the loathsome DUP she's put the NI peace process in jeopardy and risked the Scottish Tories breaking away to form their own party. I suspect every one of her MPs is facing a barrage of tweets and emails from constituents objecting to this pact.

Not sure where this idea of Scottish Tories being opposed to the DUP came from. Their leader might not be a fan because of her personal situation but a sizeable chunk of their support in scotland came from the very same sash wearing flute blowing knuckledraggers that make up the DUP. Many Scots Tory voters will be delighted with this outcome.

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Originally Posted by ddt

However, Corbyn does not get a majority coalition. He'd need the DUP for that too.

The Tories simply have to drink out this cup they've served themselves. The other minor parties that could give them a majority - LibDem, SNP - are both anti-Brexit, no way they'll affix their name to that. A grand coalition with Labour seems unthinkable in this polarized climate. So, it's either a Tory minority government, or a toxic coalition with the DUP, or new elections - well that's fun

The SNP have said they would work with Labour but I think they would be looking for a commitment to keep Scotland in the single market (which probably means keeping the uk in as a whole). Lib Dems have only ever wanted another referendum to ratify the deal which I think labour could accommodate too. I reckon the SNP would also demand some further powers devolved probably including constitutional ones. Ie the right to hold further binding referenda on independence

Of course that still just gets you at best a just about viable minority government

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Originally Posted by Garrison

Is anyone else really mad enough to want the job right now? Dealing with the DUP, trying to negotiate a brexit deal that won't split the Conservative party and of course being at the mercy of any handful of backbenchers with a pet cause they want to advance.

This is more or less my thought as well. Whoever takes over probably isn't going to make it to the next election let alone beyond that. It's only surely attractive to someone who would normally have no chance which is precisely the kind of person you don't want in the job.

[Craig B]

Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal

Not sure where this idea of Scottish Tories being opposed to the DUP came from. Their leader might not be a fan because of her personal situation but a sizeable chunk of their support in scotland came from the very same sash wearing flute blowing knuckledraggers that make up the DUP. Many Scots Tory voters will be delighted with this outcome.

Yes, and the DUP regard her as a "hero of the Union". Davidson is above all a unionist, but she's not a fascist, or a social reactionary, or a religious bigot. We'll see how she gets on with her admirers in Belfast.

[Mojo]

Originally Posted by Degeneve

A Belgian newspaper published a little more than one hour ago that five ministers have asked Boris Johnson to replace Theresa May.

Do they really think it would be fun for the Brits to have their home made version of Donald Trump at the 10 Downing Street ?

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Fun, yes. Smart, no.

Boris is, for some reason, popular with quite a lot of the electorate. Whether it's smart for the UK may not enter into it.

[Matthew Best]

The Observer verdict on May:

Quote:

Discredited, humiliated, diminished: May has lost credibility and leverage in her party, her country and across Europe. Where there was respect, there is ridicule; where there was strength, there is weakness; where there was self-assurance, there is doubt. She looks too weak to deliver her manifesto, too vulnerable to tackle dissent and too enfeebled to lead Britain. It is impossible to see her having the influence, authority or credibility to serve her country.

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Originally Posted by Matthew Best

The Observer verdict on May:

I don't disagree with this but the alternatives seem just as bad or worse. Labour did worse in the election so have even less authority or credibility. Another Tory leader will have the same problems plus not having been elected by the public.

May really has to reach out to all parties to try to cobble together some consensus on Brexit rather than focus on her narrow view of what it means. I think that's the only way forward now.

[ddt]

Originally Posted by Mojo

Boris is, for some reason, popular with quite a lot of the electorate. Whether it's smart for the UK may not enter into it.

If BoJo becomes the Tory leader, the BBC should turn "Have I Got News for You" into a live programme and coordinate their schedule with Donald Tusk.

[ohms]

I think she will last until Brexit negotiations have concluded and will be unable to get the legislation through parliament and we will have another general election.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Mojo

Boris is, for some reason, popular with quite a lot of the electorate. Whether it's smart for the UK may not enter into it.

True enough. He might cheer people up by becoming PM because of his charmingly disheveled tomfoolery. But maybe as mentioned above it will be someone who would otherwise be seen as no hopers in normal times. The next Tory leader could be anyone then. Maybe the Tory equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn.

[Craig B]

Originally Posted by ohms

I think she will last until Brexit negotiations have concluded and will be unable to get the legislation through parliament and we will have another general election.

You mean she will last for the 2 years period set by Article 50?

[ohms]

Originally Posted by Craig B

You mean she will last for the 2 years period set by Article 50?

Yes I think she will cling on that long, only because there doesn't currently seem to be anyone else the Tory party will unite behind.

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by Garrison

Is anyone else really mad enough to want the job right now? Dealing with the DUP, trying to negotiate a brexit deal that won't split the Conservative party and of course being at the mercy of any handful of backbenchers with a pet cause they want to advance.

You want mad? I present you with Boris.

[Vixen]

Rolling about laughing to see sacked ex-Chancellor, now EVENING STANDARD Editor, George Osborne, continuing to stick the knife in May, calling her a, 'Dead Woman Walking' and 'on Death Row', whilst smiling gleefully.

He is having enormous fun, putting out a headline on Friday, 'Hung Out to Dry', over a picture of a gurning Theresa May.

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

You want mad? I present you with Boris.

Apparently even he isn't that insane:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40231623

Quote:

12:56
Media strategist Jo Tanner, who has worked with Boris Johnson, says he's not in a position to mount a Conservative leadership bid, because he has baggage from last year's Brexit referendum and Vote Leave's claims about how much the UK sends to the EU.
Speaking on Pienaar's Politics, she said: "We all know Boris has wanted the job, but he has to neutralise the £350m. That's still something that follows him around."
She said the Foreign Secretary was "really bruised by what happened last year", adding: "You don't want to be seen as opportunistic."

There's also the problem that while Boris is amusing in small doses under the glare of an election campaign he's going to make gaffe after gaffe and the joke is going to start wearing thin.