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Tags Brexit , Theresa May , uk elections , uk politics

View Poll Results: How long will UK Prime Minister Theresa May Last?
She'll last a month at most 8 17.78%
She won't last out the week 3 6.67%
She'll last for two weeks 2 4.44%
She'll last until the next Tory Conference in October 2017 20 44.44%
She'll last until the next General Election 8 17.78%
She'll ride out the storm and serve the full term 2 4.44%
Who cares <shrug>? 2 4.44%
Voters: 45. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 5th February 2018, 12:06 PM   #321
Mid
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Originally Posted by Mid View Post
Well today I had people knocking at my door canvassing for Labour in the upcoming May elections. It would appear they're throwing people at taking the Tory London boroughs (the person I spoke to was a councillor shipped in from Rotherham to do the canvasing), as three months before the election is quite early to be calling.

So I thought I'd bump this thread rather than start a local elections thread, not that I think the possible looming cull of Tory councillors will end May's PMship but it may add to the overall sense of decay around the government.
And tonight we were visited by the Tories, I hope this isn't a sign of the coming 3 months
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Old 5th February 2018, 12:36 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by Mid View Post
And tonight we were visited by the Tories, I hope this isn't a sign of the coming 3 months

Well of course they came under the cover of darkness, afraid of being identified.
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Old 5th February 2018, 12:43 PM   #323
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Well of course they came under the cover of darkness, afraid of being identified.


Although given the stories about Tory party membership numbers I was surprised to see any still exist out in the wild
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Old 29th April 2018, 09:57 AM   #324
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We actually had a real live Tory come canvasing around here today they must be getting worried. Still it proves there's still some actual members alive in the wild.

Admittedly this compare to the about 20 Labour people that were out and about yesterday, not to mention the stall Labour had out on Balham High St last week.
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Old 29th April 2018, 02:41 PM   #325
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Home Secretary (-ex) Amber Rudd has gone. As a remainer on the back benches, she's free to throw spanners into May's Brexit plans.
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Old 30th April 2018, 12:44 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Home Secretary (-ex) Amber Rudd has gone. As a remainer on the back benches, she's free to throw spanners into May's Brexit plans.
Will she be replaced by a brexiteer though?

So far May has been careful to keep the cabinet balanced.
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Old 30th April 2018, 01:28 AM   #327
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Originally Posted by Mid View Post


Although given the stories about Tory party membership numbers I was surprised to see any still exist out in the wild
And yet they are still ahead of Labour in the polls.
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Old 30th April 2018, 01:31 AM   #328
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Will she be replaced by a brexiteer though?

So far May has been careful to keep the cabinet balanced.
I wonder if she might see this poisoned chalice as a way of keeping her political enemies neutered. Jacob Rees-Mogg bogged down in an unmanageable department, firefighting, but also bound by cabinet responsibility....I'm sure the thought must have crossed her mind.

Look out for James Cleverly in this reshuffle. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the cabinet.
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Old 30th April 2018, 01:56 AM   #329
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
And yet they are still ahead of Labour in the polls.
Well it doesn't take much to be better than J Corbyn
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Old 30th April 2018, 02:33 AM   #330
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Sajid Javid named as new Home Secretary. Not a major surprise, but a big step up.
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Old 30th April 2018, 06:07 AM   #331
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So Amber Rudd, she of the creepy conference speech about requiring UK firms to keep lists of foreign workers is gone, to be replaced by Sajid Javid, he who presided over the Grenfell Tower aftermath with such aplomb that everybody in London hates him.

And Sajid Javid is replaced as Housing Minister by James Brokenshire who, apart from being universally hated in Ireland is also guilty of signing a letter approving the deportation of a Windrush immigrant and then denying he ever saw the letter.

Has there ever been a worse British government than this one in modern times?
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Old 30th April 2018, 07:01 AM   #332
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
Has there ever been a worse British government than this one in modern times?
How quickly people forget. Every government behaves in the same way when in power, regardless of their politics. It's shortsighted to pick on the latest foul-up and pretend that things like this have never happened before, or take a dislike to an MP and call them the worst politician ever. Much of it isn't even their fault, it's the political system which means they have to behave like this in order to survive. Lying, corruption, conniving and cheating are the baseline of every government, on top of which policies are declared and enacted, for good or ill.
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Old 30th April 2018, 07:09 AM   #333
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
How quickly people forget. Every government behaves in the same way when in power, regardless of their politics. It's shortsighted to pick on the latest foul-up and pretend that things like this have never happened before, or take a dislike to an MP and call them the worst politician ever. Much of it isn't even their fault, it's the political system which means they have to behave like this in order to survive. Lying, corruption, conniving and cheating are the baseline of every government, on top of which policies are declared and enacted, for good or ill.
True, but the current government does have some absolute peaches in BoJo, Fox and Davis in charge of the most important thing affecting the UK since the war IMO, the current and last two home secretaries, Hunt and so on....
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Old 30th April 2018, 07:14 AM   #334
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
How quickly people forget. Every government behaves in the same way when in power, regardless of their politics. It's shortsighted to pick on the latest foul-up and pretend that things like this have never happened before, or take a dislike to an MP and call them the worst politician ever. Much of it isn't even their fault, it's the political system which means they have to behave like this in order to survive. Lying, corruption, conniving and cheating are the baseline of every government, on top of which policies are declared and enacted, for good or ill.
Can you name me any Home Secretary in the modern era who publically declared an intention to require British employers to keep lists of foreign workers?

Note - not illegal immigrants, just workers from outside the UK.
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Old 30th April 2018, 07:56 AM   #335
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
How quickly people forget. Every government behaves in the same way when in power, regardless of their politics. It's shortsighted to pick on the latest foul-up and pretend that things like this have never happened before, or take a dislike to an MP and call them the worst politician ever. Much of it isn't even their fault, it's the political system which means they have to behave like this in order to survive. Lying, corruption, conniving and cheating are the baseline of every government, on top of which policies are declared and enacted, for good or ill.

Of course it's their fault. They are a bunch of ignorant, bigoted, over privileged incompetents.

How quickly we forget indeed.
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Old 30th April 2018, 09:05 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
......James Brokenshire who..... is also guilty of signing a letter approving the deportation of a Windrush immigrant.....
Can you back this up? I haven't seen any evidence yet that any Windrush immigrants have been deported. I know this isn't what you are claiming, but it's part of the way there.
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Old 30th April 2018, 10:03 AM   #337
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Can you back this up? I haven't seen any evidence yet that any Windrush immigrants have been deported. I know this isn't what you are claiming, but it's part of the way there.
I think this Guardian article backs up Strawberry's claims. The victim in question has a brother who wasn't allowed back in when he flew to Jamaica for his father's funeral in 2001 and hasn't seen his daughter since.
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Old 30th April 2018, 10:08 AM   #338
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
I think this Guardian article backs up Strawberry's claims. The victim in question has a brother who wasn't allowed back in when he flew to Jamaica for his father's funeral in 2001 and hasn't seen his daughter since.
That's what I was indeed referring to, thank you.
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Old 30th April 2018, 11:27 AM   #339
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Thanks. That is a different thing from the claim, though, He wasn't removed from the country, just found to not have the paperwork to come home. And that letter wasn't a letter authorising deportation, or anything like it, but a letter to another MP simply listing all the facts of the case. Again, very different from the claim.
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Old 30th April 2018, 11:29 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Thanks. That is a different thing from the claim, though, He wasn't removed from the country, just found to not have the paperwork to come home. And that letter wasn't a letter authorising deportation, or anything like it, but a letter to another MP simply listing all the facts of the case. Again, very different from the claim.
A letter that he denied having seen despite signing it.
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Old 30th April 2018, 12:02 PM   #341
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But a letter which doesn't say what you claimed it said, about someone who wasn't ordered to be deported as you claimed. I'm not defending him, but you aren't doing a good job of backing up your misleading claim.
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Old 30th April 2018, 12:24 PM   #342
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
But a letter which doesn't say what you claimed it said, about someone who wasn't ordered to be deported as you claimed. I'm not defending him, but you aren't doing a good job of backing up your misleading claim.
I was working from memory. But the inaccuracies of my memory don't explain away his denial of seeing a letter that he signed. Did he forget? Did he lie?
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Old 30th April 2018, 12:40 PM   #343
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
I was working from memory. But the inaccuracies of my memory don't explain away his denial of seeing a letter that he signed. Did he forget? Did he lie?
He lied. he's a Tory Minister. They are like Trump, they lie without thinking.
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Old 30th April 2018, 01:51 PM   #344
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Can you imagine how many letters are put in front of a minister every single day for signature?
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Old 30th April 2018, 01:56 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Can you imagine how many letters are put in front of a minister every single day for signature?
And they bear full responsibility for knowing the contents of those letters before they sign. Otherwise not one of those signatures has any validity.
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Old 30th April 2018, 02:29 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Thanks. That is a different thing from the claim, though, He wasn't removed from the country, just found to not have the paperwork to come home. And that letter wasn't a letter authorising deportation, or anything like it, but a letter to another MP simply listing all the facts of the case. Again, very different from the claim.
I think you're confusing the two brothers here. Desmond has not been allowed to return to Britain since he attended his father's funeral in Jamaica. Trevor is still in Britain and has been declared an illegal alien, and he's the one the letter is about.

You're right that Strawberry oversold their claim, but what is the line between declaring someone to be an illegal alien and a deportation order? Isn't the first a setup for the second, especially in the Home Office of May and Rudd?

Brokenshire's comment that "We did, as a Home Office, look compassionately over a number of individual cases" rings quite hollow when you see him reiterate in the letter that Mr. Johnson could not prove British residency for three pairs of subsequent years out of over 40 years, especially as we now know that the Home Office required four pieces of evidence per year.
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Old 30th April 2018, 02:36 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Can you imagine how many letters are put in front of a minister every single day for signature?
Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
And they bear full responsibility for knowing the contents of those letters before they sign. Otherwise not one of those signatures has any validity.
This.

And, according to the Guardian article, he claimed he hadn't seen the letter before. That's belied by his signature. He could have tried "I don't remember". Which still doesn't cut it, he still bears responsibility for what he signed, and he obviously lied about the "compassionate" bit with what we now know of Home Office policy.
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Old 4th May 2018, 04:46 AM   #348
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Can you imagine how many letters are put in front of a minister every single day for signature?

The thought of a Member of Parliament simply signing everything put in front of them without reading it terrifies me, to be honest. It doesn't surprise me, but it's bloody terrifying.
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Old 9th July 2018, 07:23 AM   #349
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How long has Theresa May got, Peeps?
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Old 9th July 2018, 07:37 AM   #350
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
How long has Theresa May got, Peeps?
Difficult to say.

Any of the apparent front runners, Rees-Mogg, BoJo, DD, Gove may have their fan clubs within the Conservative Party, but they also have large numbers of Tory MPs who simply cannot stand them. Throwing over the PM for a successor who may be even less popular isn't necessarily a great idea.

There's also the spectre of Corbyn lurking in the background.
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Old 9th July 2018, 08:04 AM   #351
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Difficult to say.

Any of the apparent front runners, Rees-Mogg, BoJo, DD, Gove may have their fan clubs within the Conservative Party, but they also have large numbers of Tory MPs who simply cannot stand them. Throwing over the PM for a successor who may be even less popular isn't necessarily a great idea.

There's also the spectre of Corbyn lurking in the background.
Out of curiosity: if the Labour party leader was someone like, say, one of the Miliband brothers, would that, in your opinion, increase or decrease the likelihood of early elections?
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Old 9th July 2018, 08:11 AM   #352
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Out of curiosity: if the Labour party leader was someone like, say, one of the Miliband brothers, would that, in your opinion, increase or decrease the likelihood of early elections?
Excellent question. The following is IMO and unscientific.

Ed Miliband now has a bit of a fan following post-defeat that he didn't have beforehand. Pre-loss Ed would have a greater likelihood of an election, they'd likely beat him easily. Post-loss Ed, I'm not so sure about.

I think they'd run scared of David.
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Old 9th July 2018, 08:13 AM   #353
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May would be long gone if being the Prime Minister was a desirable position now.
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Old 9th July 2018, 08:15 AM   #354
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Excellent question. The following is IMO and unscientific.

Ed Miliband now has a bit of a fan following post-defeat that he didn't have beforehand. Pre-loss Ed would have a greater likelihood of an election, they'd likely beat him easily. Post-loss Ed, I'm not so sure about.

I think they'd run scared of David.
Thanks.

Such a shame, there are quite a few great people in the Labour party, and then the leader is Corbyn.
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Old 9th July 2018, 08:55 AM   #355
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
May would be long gone if being the Prime Minister was a desirable position now.
I agree that being the leader of a deeply divided Conservative Party at a time when that person also has to negotiate through the most critical (and IMO pointless) national crisis in my lifetime isn't really a great prize. I suspect they want Theresa May to see us though a miserable failure of a Brexit, blame her, and then pick up the pieces.
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Old 9th July 2018, 10:18 AM   #356
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post

I think they'd run scared of David.
The one who signed the Lisbon treaty...
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Old 9th July 2018, 02:00 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
May would be long gone if being the Prime Minister was a desirable position now.
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I agree that being the leader of a deeply divided Conservative Party at a time when that person also has to negotiate through the most critical (and IMO pointless) national crisis in my lifetime isn't really a great prize. I suspect they want Theresa May to see us though a miserable failure of a Brexit, blame her, and then pick up the pieces.
Which is why May should have used that to her advantage as she at least has seems to have some idea of the economic costs of a hard Brexit
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Old 9th July 2018, 03:40 PM   #358
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
The one who signed the Lisbon treaty...
What's wrong with the Lisbon treaty?
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Old 9th July 2018, 03:45 PM   #359
fromdownunder
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May still seems to be OK as PM for the moment, the life of a Cabinet Minister since last years election, not so much. Eight gone in a year.





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Old 9th July 2018, 03:55 PM   #360
Captain_Swoop
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David Cameron Tweet from 2015

"Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband"

How did that work out Dave?
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