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Tags hurricanes , weather incidents

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Old 7th September 2017, 02:45 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by SusanB-M1 View Post
A friend just phoned to say she had been watching pictures on TV. If nearly all the buildings are gone, I wonder where the people were during the storm to be safe? If their houses were falling down around them, how did they manage to stay safe? Do you happen to know?
I think they had several sturdy structures for shelter.

I am trying to figure out the maths. If 90% of buildings are demolished and 60% of the population are now homeless, that means 40% of the population live in 10% of the houses and the remaining 60% in 90%.

As the sturdier homes are the more affluent ones, these figures from the Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, Gaveston Browne, simply do not add up.

I could only see about 16 residents standing around when the PM arrived.

So where are the rest...?
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Old 7th September 2017, 02:46 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Barbuda only has about 1,600 inhabitants, which is about the same as the village where I live. If the island is really uninhabitable and it's possible to get the logistics organised, you'd think it would be possible to evacuate that number temporarily until clean-up and rebuilding squads can get to work. But there are other larger communities also badly hit and it all sounds extremely worrying.
Now they are expecting José, the PM did say he was going to evacuate the residents.
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Old 7th September 2017, 02:52 PM   #123
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If 90% of buildings are demolished and 60% of the population are now homeless, does that means 40% of the population live in 10% of the houses and the remaining 60% in 90%? I think you also need to know what percentage of the buildings destroyed were residences.
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Old 7th September 2017, 03:19 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
If 90% of buildings are demolished and 60% of the population are now homeless, does that means 40% of the population live in 10% of the houses and the remaining 60% in 90%?
There's a 50% chance you are correct.
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Old 7th September 2017, 04:12 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Been reading quite few reports and the like on social media and I'm struck by the number of comments asking god to protect them, keep them safe etc. (Don't read much directly on social media so this may be nothing unusual - just unusual for me to read it.)

I think many have their faith in the wrong place.

Yes, if Irma is here to wash away the sins of man, then I may not be posting for much longer.
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Old 7th September 2017, 05:28 PM   #126
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Surprisingly, I haven't seen anyone in the media calling it "Irmageddon" yet. (Only Vixen in another thread.)
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Old 7th September 2017, 06:44 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
"Irmageddon"
Now you've done it. Thanks a lot.
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Old 7th September 2017, 07:29 PM   #128
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I just watched the local news report on the CBS-TV station in Miami. The weather reporter said Friday will be a fairly normal day weather-wise, but Saturday will be windy and squally and Sunday Irma will arrive. The track as of now is almost due north/south through the middle of Florida. It was very sobering to watch. To listen as the forecaster explained about the storm surge and warned: "We can survive the high winds, we can't survive the storm surge."

This is from a report in the Miami Herald:
Quote:
Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez expanded evacuation orders Thursday to the county’s coast and other inland areas as Hurricane Irma threatened to bring severe flooding to South Florida.

“I’ve been here 60 years. I’ve never heard of this kind of evacuation,” Gimenez, a former Miami fire chief, told reporters Thursday...He said he decided to expand the orders after studying storm-surge maps provided Thursday morning by the National Hurricane Center after it issued a hurricane watch for South Florida...With his expanded order, Gimenez has now instructed more than 650,000 people to flee their homes in advance of a Category 5 hurricane expected to bring tropical-storm winds Saturday before potentially making landfall Sunday. Link
I have family in the Fort Lauderdale area and I am very worried. This is scary stuff.

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Old 7th September 2017, 07:35 PM   #129
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
There's a 50% chance you are correct.
And there's a 50% chance you are correct.

I'd take announcements made while stepping over rubble, well, with a grain of salt if you can find any. It'll probably turn out to be different percentages anyway but is that 90% by square footage or 90% by number of edifices.
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Old 7th September 2017, 07:40 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by marplots View Post
My impression is that Cuba, as a soon to be scrubbed island, is being under-reported.

Maybe it's a conspiracy of some sort in an anti-Castro holdover, or maybe just the lack of a good B-roll.
I think it's more about the ratings. If a storm approaches Cuba from the south, it'll get a lot of "Cuba to be slammed by Hurricane Wally" headlines. There are enough Cuban-Americans that it's an interesting draw in Florida and in Tri-State NJ/NY/CT.

But if the action's to the north, do you make headlines about Cuba getting bashed or about OMG Irma Going To Destroy Florida? The latter sells more soap flakes.
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Old 7th September 2017, 07:43 PM   #131
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
You just know that there's going to be a scandal when Trump uses relief funds to rebuild the place.
We can only hope!
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Old 7th September 2017, 08:04 PM   #132
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The latest news report from Miami actually made me gasp. Police are escorting tanker trucks so they can make it to the gas stations.

Reminds me uncomfortably of a movie...
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Old 7th September 2017, 08:15 PM   #133
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It kills me to say so, but where Bush and his people screwed up Katrina, Trump and co. seem to be on top of Harvey and Irma. If Bush deserved blame, Trump deserves praise. Now pardon me while I go get drunk.

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Old 7th September 2017, 08:41 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by Beady View Post
It kills me to say so, but where Bush and his people screwed up Katrina, Trump and co. seem to be on top of Harvey and Irma. If Bush deserved blame, Trump deserves praise.

Not necessarily. First, a lot of the emergency efforts being put in now are automatic and only depend upon the governor or president to declare a state of emergency.

Second, a lot of the infrastructure needed to mitigate such an event was never built - here, New Jersey, Texas, Louisiana or anywhere else. I'll side with the president who gets preventative infrastructure built (and who admints that humans are the cause of global climate instability). So far, that's no one.
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Old 7th September 2017, 08:48 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
Not necessarily. First, a lot of the emergency efforts being put in now are automatic and only depend upon the governor or president to declare a state of emergency.

Second, a lot of the infrastructure needed to mitigate such an event was never built - here, New Jersey, Texas, Louisiana or anywhere else. I'll side with the president who gets preventative infrastructure built (and who admints that humans are the cause of global climate instability). So far, that's no one.
YMMV, but I am very impressed with the way the military has been deployed, and there is absolutely no comparison with FEMA's performance, Bush and Trump.

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Old 7th September 2017, 09:02 PM   #136
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He is dealing with scandals not of his creation better than I imagined.

Too bad his scandals outnumber natural ones like 18-2
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Old 7th September 2017, 09:50 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
He is dealing with scandals not of his creation better than I imagined.

Too bad his scandals outnumber natural ones like 18-2

He isn't getting in the way of the systems in place. That's the best I can say about him.
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Old 7th September 2017, 10:53 PM   #138
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Vixen

Thank you for your reply.
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Old 7th September 2017, 11:23 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by Beady View Post
It kills me to say so, but where Bush and his people screwed up Katrina, Trump and co. seem to be on top of Harvey and Irma. If Bush deserved blame, Trump deserves praise. Now pardon me while I go get drunk.

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I expected he would be good at disaster response. Running a tight supply chain and expediting changes to get his buildings up on time was something he actually did well.
I would guess he is enjoying this rare burst of fast paced productivity.
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Old 7th September 2017, 11:54 PM   #140
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Now all we need is an earthquake and a tsunami.

(Damn. I wish I'd posted this yesterday when I thought of it. I didn't really want one! But it was in Mexico, so who (in the current administration) cares!)
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Old 7th September 2017, 11:56 PM   #141
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This is the way the world ends. (This weekend, by my guess.)

Definitely with a goddamn "BANG!"
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Old 8th September 2017, 02:05 AM   #142
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Old 8th September 2017, 05:28 AM   #143
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
We've decided to hunker down here in inland Palm Beach County. Tomorrow, we'll be hoarding water and looking to fill in some gaps - OTC meds, cell-phone chargers, etc. We're preparing for 5 days without power or safe water. After that ...
One thing about Irma is, it seems to be a fairly quick-moving storm. The NHC is projecting the main part of the storm will make landfall in South Florida around 2AM on Sunday and move through the area in a few hours. Unlike Harvey in the Houston area where the intense rainfall seemed to last for over 24-hours. Irma is not supposed to produce the amount of rainfall Harvey did either. Weather scientists seem to believe one of the reasons for Harvey's record rainfall, over four feet in some areas, was from Harvey picking up huge amounts of moisture from a Gulf that is much warmer than normal even for this time of year. I've read water temperatures were about seven degrees warmer than average.

As the chart below shows, Irma may not come up the East Coast as originally predicted, but move further west, impacting inland areas. In fact, I keep wondering, the projections show Irma, after hitting Cuba and approaching the Florida Keys, making a right and moving into Florida. What are the chances, I wonder, of the storm continuing on the track to the northwest and crossing the Gulf not Florida. But then I guess New Orleans would be in the path.

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Old 8th September 2017, 05:41 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
He isn't getting in the way of the systems in place. That's the best I can say about him.
He accidently picked a FEMA director with experience responding to hurricanes.

I finished buying food and water and going to ride it out. I'm far enough away from the bay and at 27 feet of elevation (high for Florida) so that I'm not in a flood zone.
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Old 8th September 2017, 05:58 AM   #145
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
We've decided to hunker down here in inland Palm Beach County. Tomorrow, we'll be hoarding water and looking to fill in some gaps - OTC meds, cell-phone chargers, etc. We're preparing for 5 days without power or safe water. After that ...
Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
...I finished buying food and water and going to ride it out. I'm far enough away from the bay and at 27 feet of elevation (high for Florida) so that I'm not in a flood zone.
As I mentioned, I have family in the Fort Lauderdale area, that includes two daughters, their husbands, some grandkids, and they're not leaving either. I really really hope everybody down there comes through this okay. Evacuating seems to me to be a tough call. Where do you go? The whole state seems to be at risk, so do you have to evacuate outside Florida? To where?
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Old 8th September 2017, 06:16 AM   #146
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I suppose there's one relatively encouraging feature of the information coming out of the Caribbean islands and that is that while property damage has been horrendous the death toll is relatively small. Not even into three figures. It seems that with proper preparations it's possible to live through the storm.

Evacuating isn't going to prevent your property from being damaged. You can't evacuate a house or a shop. You can't even evacuate much of your personal possessions. And given the sheer extent of the possible affected area and the number of people living there, how feasible is mass evacuation anyway?

I can see the point of getting the very elderly and infirm out. But maybe for other people it's better to arrange to ride out the storm somewhere that's well enough protected, and have enough provisions to manage for a week or so afterwards without any normal services.

One of the things that struck me about the post-Katrina situation was the lovely weather being shown along with all the film of overtopped levees and flooded houses. It was the property and infrastructure damage that was the problem.

Mind you, if Jose is coming behind to hit the same places, that's bad. I see they're talking about completely evacuating Barbuda if Jose looks like it's going to hit. Feasible, because that's not so many people. What to do if the Florida infrastructure and built environment is trashed by Irma and Jose is then heading the same place? Nobody is going to have resources to ride out two in a row, but there are so many people, where could they go?
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Old 8th September 2017, 06:17 AM   #147
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By the way, what's Katia? By the naming convention it should be behind Jose, but maps are showing it as being in front of Irma.
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Old 8th September 2017, 06:28 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
By the way, what's Katia? By the naming convention it should be behind Jose, but maps are showing it as being in front of Irma.
Katia formed after Jose was named.

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Old 8th September 2017, 06:54 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Evacuating seems to me to be a tough call. Where do you go? The whole state seems to be at risk, so do you have to evacuate outside Florida? To where?
I find it quite odd and ironic that the safest place to be during Hurricane Irma appears to be "on a boat".
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Old 8th September 2017, 07:16 AM   #150
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USA Today has a story about the evacuation.
Quote:
Hurricane Irma has proven a unique challenge for Floridians trying to escape. Such storms usually hit the Sunshine State from the east or west, allowing residents to flee north or south to avoid the damage. But with Irma projected to make an unusual landfall from the south, the Category 5 behemoth could envelop the entire Florida peninsula. That has forced evacuees to drive farther and farther north, creating an evacuation route longer than any storm in recent history.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott said his office is working with fuel suppliers to ensure that gas stations along the Florida Turnpike, I-95 and I-75 — the main highways leading out of South Florida — are kept open and stocked to accommodate the thousands of cars heading north...The governor ordered the Florida Highway Patrol to escort fuel trucks along the entire evacuation route, and was working with the Department of Defense to arrange a military escort for a fuel tanker headed toward the Port Tampa Bay. "For gas stations in evacuation zones: we need you to stay open as long as possible so people can get out," Scott said. Link
I watched a local news show from Miami last night, and the weather forecaster explained the greatest risk for Floridians is the storm surge in coastal areas. Those are the areas that are getting the mandatory evacuation orders.
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Old 8th September 2017, 07:45 AM   #151
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Isn't Irma cat. 4 by now?
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Old 8th September 2017, 07:50 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Isn't Irma cat. 4 by now?
As of 8AM it was 150mph, Cat. 4, yes.
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Old 8th September 2017, 07:55 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
As of 8AM it was 150mph, Cat. 4, yes.
Hopefully it won't rev up to 5 again as it paddles up to Florida.
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Old 8th September 2017, 08:01 AM   #154
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Splendid. Jose upgraded to a Category 4 with 150mph winds as well. Looks like it may turn away from the US but Bermuda is in the crosshairs, as is Barbuda, St. Thomas and St. Maarten. Again. There may be time yet for it to go north of those locations though, so hopefully for their sake it does.
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Old 8th September 2017, 08:08 AM   #155
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Well, Katia's not coming towards the US so that's a plus.
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渦巻く暗雲天を殺し 現る凶事のうなりか

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Old 8th September 2017, 08:19 AM   #156
GlennB
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Well, Katia's not coming towards the US so that's a plus.
Unless you're in the place it is going towards, in which case it's a minus.
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Old 8th September 2017, 08:20 AM   #157
Argumemnon
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Unless you're in the place it is going towards, in which case it's a minus.
Yeah but it's in Mexico and it's mostly rapists down there, so...
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渦巻く暗雲天を殺し 現る凶事のうなりか

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Old 8th September 2017, 08:37 AM   #158
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Looking now at Ventusky.

Eye is going to pass just west of Lake Okeechobee Sunday night, around 10 pm.

The northward turn has been moving more and more west each day.
By the time it does turn north (as expected) it might skirt the Gulf Coast.
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Old 8th September 2017, 09:21 AM   #159
Craig4
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Originally Posted by C_Felix View Post
Looking now at Ventusky.

Eye is going to pass just west of Lake Okeechobee Sunday night, around 10 pm.

The northward turn has been moving more and more west each day.
By the time it does turn north (as expected) it might skirt the Gulf Coast.
Well, it was nice knowing all of you.
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Old 8th September 2017, 09:43 AM   #160
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Been reading quite few reports and the like on social media and I'm struck by the number of comments asking god to protect them, keep them safe etc. (Don't read much directly on social media so this may be nothing unusual - just unusual for me to read it.)

I think many have their faith in the wrong place.
If you survive, God saved you. If you die, no one hears about your complaint that he didn't. Makes it look like God saves people.
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