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Tags hurricanes , weather incidents

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Old 8th September 2017, 11:00 PM   #201
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
I hadn't really thought about them checking records of those at the shelter but if I went with my 9yo daughter I'd like to think convicted child sex offenders are weeded out, with or without any warrants. They know they arent allowed and it's a violation (isn't it?) so perhaps they find somewhere else to go.
Got any sources reporting child molesters are a problem in disaster shelters?

Seems like an odd concern.
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Old 8th September 2017, 11:09 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Got any sources reporting child molesters are a problem in disaster shelters?

Seems like an odd concern.
Nope. Like I said, I had not thought about it. That we do not hear of it likely means it isn't an issue. However, if I were checking for something, that would be high on my list, not warrants for crimes as yet unproven.
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Old 8th September 2017, 11:51 PM   #203
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Got any sources reporting child molesters are a problem in disaster shelters?

Seems like an odd concern.
Given the number of kids there with their family and family friends it means quite a few child abusers in the shelters. If this is a genuine and actual concern perhaps they need to separate kids from their families in the shelters?
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Old 9th September 2017, 12:50 AM   #204
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
There's a lot of room between "anyone with a warrant will be arrested if they come to a shelter" and "free room and board for rapists."
Yes.

Not checking papers at that time is the right thing to do. It'll be ineffective and cause delays. As well as discouraging people who might only hav failed to pay a fine (in Ferguson these were often pretty much trumped-up charges, and a way of revenue collection).
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Old 9th September 2017, 02:11 AM   #205
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Yes.

Not checking papers at that time is the right thing to do. It'll be ineffective and cause delays. As well as discouraging people who might only hav failed to pay a fine (in Ferguson these were often pretty much trumped-up charges, and a way of revenue collection).
Agreed. If you're really (he isn't) worried about a criminal element in the shelters, the fifteen LEOs you'll have pushing papers and looking up warrants would be better deployed simply patrolling the shelters and frisking for weapons.

The linked-to WaPo article above cites the same problems. The majority of warrants in the country are for not paying fines or not showing for your hearing where they were going to tell you to pay said fine plus court costs. Dog The Bounty Hunter ain't chasing down misdemeanor scofflaws. They only get caught when they do some minor infraction, again.

This is just a clown posturing for the voters. Y'all do know what color those people coming up are likely to be, right?
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Old 9th September 2017, 03:03 AM   #206
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
As I mentioned, I have family in the Fort Lauderdale area, that includes two daughters, their husbands, some grandkids, and they're not leaving either. I really really hope everybody down there comes through this okay. Evacuating seems to me to be a tough call. Where do you go? The whole state seems to be at risk, so do you have to evacuate outside Florida? To where?

Georgia isn't looking too promising right now, and South Carolina seems kinda chancy as well.

Our local news (Raleigh, NC station) yesterday did a short piece on a motel off I-95 in Lumberton, NC which was already filled with Irma refugees.

The rooms which weren't still occupied by Matthew victims from last fall who still had no home to return to, that is.
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Old 9th September 2017, 03:18 AM   #207
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Filing this under "things which are not helpful in this situation."

Florida Sheriff Plans to Check for Warrants at Hurricane Shelters
Don't worry, it gets worse:

In Florida, no law shields workers from being fired for evacuating.

Quote:
In Florida, a right-to-work state with a long history of evacuations from hurricanes and other natural disasters, there is no blanket law protecting fleeing employees from dismissal for job abandonment, said Ben Yormak, a Bonita Springs employment lawyer.

“Florida just doesn’t have a specific law that says if there’s a hurricane, you’ve got to let people go,” Yormak said.

...

Some employees — first responders, emergency room doctors, utility workers — are essential to the public and likely have few opportunities to leave. Government and nonprofit employees also likely have fewer protections, Yormak said.
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Old 9th September 2017, 04:12 AM   #208
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I have family in South Florida and none are evacuating. The waiting is the worst part, for now anyway. The storm hit parts of Cuba last night, after intensifying back to Cat 5 status. Hurricanes gain strength as they travel over water, don't they? That's what worries me about the storm approaching the Keys and South Florida, that it may be a Cat 5 when it makes landfall.

Quote:
Hurricane Irma smashed into Cuba and the Bahamas as it drove toward Florida on Saturday after hitting the eastern Caribbean with its devastatingly high winds, killing at least 23 people and leaving catastrophic destruction in its wake. It made landfall on Cuba late on Friday night, regaining its maximum intensity as a Category 5 storm, striking the Camaguey Archipelago with 160 mph (260 kph) winds. Link
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Old 9th September 2017, 04:15 AM   #209
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
By the way, what's Katia? By the naming convention it should be behind Jose, but maps are showing it as being in front of Irma.
Originally Posted by Beady View Post
Katia formed after Jose was named.

Katia is a bit unusual in that we are used to the newsworthy storms at this point in the hurricane season tending to form in the eastern Atlantic and moving west toward the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Not only did Katia reach named storm status after Jose, it also formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, so it didn't take a spot in the line of storms we are used to seeing on the news this time of year.

It is a line crasher. A queue jumper.

Very rude.
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Old 9th September 2017, 04:16 AM   #210
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Yeah but it's in Mexico and it's mostly rapists down there, so...

And murderers. Don't forget murderers.

Although some of them might be good people.

...

...


I suppose.
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Old 9th September 2017, 08:42 AM   #211
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Looks like Irma's track has moved west again.
From the expected timeline, the SW area near Naples will get the worst side of the storm approaching them as they hit high tide ...4pm tomorrow.
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Old 9th September 2017, 09:07 AM   #212
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Hurricanes gain strength as they travel over water, don't they?
Yes, it is warm ocean water which generates the energy by way of evaporation. Irma will leave Cuba and then be over warm ocean before entering Florida, but there is not much ocean between those lands. Right now it is at Cat 4, down from 5. Irma could regain 5 before reaching Florida, or remain steady at 4.

If Irma were to continue tracking westward (beyond predictions) the eye may entirely miss Florida and build strength to Cat 5 as it moves through the Gulf towards New Orleans.
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Old 9th September 2017, 10:00 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Not only did Katia reach named storm status after Jose, it also formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, so it didn't take a spot in the line of storms we are used to seeing on the news this time of year. It is a line crasher. A queue jumper. Very rude.
Concur.
Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
And murderers. Don't forget murderers. Although some of them might be good people.
The good mix with the bad, as in most places, and a lot of people crossing our border are from south of Mexico. Their first challenge is to cross through the very unforgiving, albeit corrupt, Mexican system.

As to Hurricane's gaining strength over water: over warm water, yes.
That's how Harvey got to be such a beast. It's called 'the chimney effect' and happens when the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico (or other warm body of water) feed energy into the system via evaporated warm water. If Irma heads a bit further west, she'll have an energy sump of the Western Gulf of Mexico to feed her and make her strong and healthy. Good news for Irma's self esteem, bad news for human beings in Florida and the northern gulf coast.
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Old 9th September 2017, 10:34 AM   #214
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Nope. Like I said, I had not thought about it. That we do not hear of it likely means it isn't an issue. However, if I were checking for something, that would be high on my list, not warrants for crimes as yet unproven.
Oh, I misunderstood you to be saying checking for warrants was a good idea. My apologies.

In that case, it makes some sense, but I just don't think a shelter is the place a molester is going to be acting on their urges.
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Old 9th September 2017, 10:45 AM   #215
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Do Irma and Jose affect each other at their current distance?

If Irma keeps moving west, does it give Jose room to move as well? Is there a push/pull thing that can happen?
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Old 9th September 2017, 10:52 AM   #216
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Do Irma and Jose affect each other at their current distance?

If Irma keeps moving west, does it give Jose room to move as well? Is there a push/pull thing that can happen?
The NHC has Jose turning north, then southeast. Seems after its done with St. Maarten and the northern leewards, it's going to annoy the fishes.
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Old 9th September 2017, 11:00 AM   #217
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My daughter in South Florida spoke with my wife this morning. In the Miami area they are already getting rain squalls and winds gusting to about 50 mph. They have boarded up all their windows, stocked in supplies (they paid $20 a pack for bottled water that is usually about $12) and are ready to ride it out.

Weather Channel says the storm was downgraded to Cat 3 as it moved over Cuba but is expected to pick up strength as it heads over open water to Florida -- the water temperature in the Straits of Florida is very warm at this time of year, 90 degrees -- and intensify back to a Cat 4 storm. The storm is expected to hit somewhat west of dead center on South Florida. The Miami area will still see winds gusting over 100 mph and upwards of 18-24 inches of rain over an approximately 30 hour period.

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Old 9th September 2017, 12:50 PM   #218
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I'm just wondering how several million (I'm reading 6.3m) are being evacuated from the most endangered parts of Florida while such a thing was deemed impossible for the Houston area.

The strength, the length of the warning, the predictability of the storm's path, the local geography?
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Old 9th September 2017, 03:50 PM   #219
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
I'm just wondering how several million (I'm reading 6.3m) are being evacuated from the most endangered parts of Florida while such a thing was deemed impossible for the Houston area.

The strength, the length of the warning, the predictability of the storm's path, the local geography?
Moreover since they are calling on everyone to evacuate then i presume they have actually set up simple but sufficient lodging for evacuees to reside in until it becomes feasible to return, right?

I mean they aren't actually calling on everyone to escape on their own without any assistance, right? Considering that it's quite likely many cannot afford such expenses it would be tantamount to leaving those people to their fate, although it would also explain why so many poor people cannot afford nor see any reason to evacuate.

Edit: I mean they must at least have organized buss transportation that move people out free of charge, right?
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Old 9th September 2017, 06:05 PM   #220
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Nope. The bus drivers need to evacuate too.
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Old 9th September 2017, 06:20 PM   #221
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Our daughter (and son-in-law) in South Florida called us again a few minutes ago. It is raining pretty hard and pretty steadily. The winds have picked up and already some trees have come down. Now the part I find hard to believe.

Around 5:30PM-6:00PM EDST they lost power.

About thirty minutes ago it was restored!

No guarantee it will stay on but we had figured they would be without power until Monday afternoon at the earliest. You have to give some credit to the people who work for the utility companies. They're the ones who have to leave their families alone while they go out and work long exhausting hours in the wind and rain, terrible conditions.

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Old 9th September 2017, 06:30 PM   #222
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
I'm just wondering how several million (I'm reading 6.3m) are being evacuated from the most endangered parts of Florida while such a thing was deemed impossible for the Houston area.

The strength, the length of the warning, the predictability of the storm's path, the local geography?
The warning. Also, having seen what it already did probably spooked a lot of people.
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Old 9th September 2017, 07:11 PM   #223
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The issue about evacuations is interesting. In most if not all counties in Florida they have set up shelters. Many of them are in publicly-owned buildings that are of recent construction meaning they were required to be built to standards which should make them fairly safe even in a hurricane. (Btw Donnie recently signed an exec order that will allow officials to waive these standards for new construction in the future. Too expensive.)

Many if not all local transit systems provided service to these shelters so people without a car or without access to a car could get to them.

The other issue is, unless you live in one of the areas, meaning you live in Florida, your local news station is not going to provide detailed reports on where and how to seek shelter if you need it. That's only going to be provided by local newscasts. A TV news report in, say Cleveland, is not going to waste airtime instructing people who need shelter in Tampa on a) where the public shelters are or b) how to get to them. Why would they?

This was posted on the Miami-Dade dot gov Twitter account:

.
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Old 9th September 2017, 07:42 PM   #224
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
The warning. Also, having seen what it already did probably spooked a lot of people.
I think Florida is lower than Houston by the sounds of it. Miami is already experiencing tidal flooding quite apart from Hurricane floods.
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Old 9th September 2017, 08:16 PM   #225
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
The issue about evacuations is interesting. In most if not all counties in Florida they have set up shelters. Many of them are in publicly-owned buildings that are of recent construction meaning they were required to be built to standards which should make them fairly safe even in a hurricane. (Btw Donnie recently signed an exec order that will allow officials to waive these standards for new construction in the future. Too expensive.)

Many if not all local transit systems provided service to these shelters so people without a car or without access to a car could get to them.

The other issue is, unless you live in one of the areas, meaning you live in Florida, your local news station is not going to provide detailed reports on where and how to seek shelter if you need it. That's only going to be provided by local newscasts. A TV news report in, say Cleveland, is not going to waste airtime instructing people who need shelter in Tampa on a) where the public shelters are or b) how to get to them. Why would they?

This was posted on the Miami-Dade dot gov Twitter account:

.
Makes one wonder what's wrong with Houston.

I suggested in another forum that Houston could have at least mapped out the higher ground people might have saved their cars in. A whole bunch of people
posted how stupid I was because people who lived there knew there was no higher ground. But some peoples' houses didn't flood.

So I posted an elevation map of where there was flood water and where there wasn't and another whole bunch of people reported my post and a mod deleted it with the comment, "give it a rest"! Seriously.

Whatever.

So, Houston, dangerous to evacuate. I get that. But just wait to see whose houses flood and send in the boats? Something's wrong with this picture.

And that's not even getting into the detailed report long before the flooding warning of the pending disaster that was completely ignored. Echoes of NOLA for sure.
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Old 9th September 2017, 08:18 PM   #226
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I think Florida is lower than Houston by the sounds of it. Miami is already experiencing tidal flooding quite apart from Hurricane floods.
Don't think so. Even maybe. Houston was built by paving over a swamp or something.
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Old 9th September 2017, 08:37 PM   #227
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Don't think so. Even maybe. Houston was built by paving over a swamp or something.
Isn't that pretty much Florida as well? Just thinking about Miami now flooding just with a high tide.
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Old 9th September 2017, 08:46 PM   #228
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Don't think so. Even maybe. Houston was built by paving over a swamp or something.
Most of that area was originally wetlands. So pretty close. What caused the worst of the flooding was releasing water at the reservoirs. They could not keep up with the amount of rainfall Houston got.
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Old 9th September 2017, 09:27 PM   #229
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Ernest Borgnine decides to ride it out in Key West.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weat...172226042.html
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Old 9th September 2017, 10:35 PM   #230
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Originally Posted by KatieG View Post
Most of that area was originally wetlands. So pretty close. What caused the worst of the flooding was releasing water at the reservoirs. They could not keep up with the amount of rainfall Houston got.
Is there an engineer in the house? Rather than releasing a few million gallons in one fell swoop, why not just let the reservoirs overflow to the tune of the amount of rain that's falling? Are the reservoirs located so precariously that it's better to not let them overflow?

Or were they unable to bear the weight of a full load? (That's why I asked if there's an engineer in the house.)
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Old 9th September 2017, 11:02 PM   #231
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Is there an engineer in the house? Rather than releasing a few million gallons in one fell swoop, why not just let the reservoirs overflow to the tune of the amount of rain that's falling? Are the reservoirs located so precariously that it's better to not let them overflow?

Or were they unable to bear the weight of a full load? (That's why I asked if there's an engineer in the house.)
There was over 50" of water falling in some locations. That is an enormous amount of water, especially given the area.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...ter-visualized

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.89bf2adc945f

8 cubic miles falling until midnight on the Sunday in Texas and Louisiana

I don't think that there is much you can do to store water with that intense rainfall.
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Old 9th September 2017, 11:31 PM   #232
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Is there an engineer in the house? Rather than releasing a few million gallons in one fell swoop, why not just let the reservoirs overflow to the tune of the amount of rain that's falling? Are the reservoirs located so precariously that it's better to not let them overflow?

Or were they unable to bear the weight of a full load? (That's why I asked if there's an engineer in the house.)
I suppose a random overflow could damage the structure in a way that a controlled release doesn't. Erosion of soil, and the like.

Here's a (the?) spillway on the Addicks reservoir. If water gushes over the top it could maybe wash away the soil surrounding the concrete structure. Perhaps they waited until their hand was forced, hoping the rain would ease?

http://media.click2houston.com/photo...0_1280_720.jpg

Factoid: dams don't care about 'the weight' of water they're holding back. The water could extend back 60" or 60 miles and the dam wouldn't know the difference. It's the water pressure they resist, and that's a function of the depth of the water.
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Old 9th September 2017, 11:33 PM   #233
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
There was over 50" of water falling in some locations. That is an enormous amount of water, especially given the area.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...ter-visualized

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.89bf2adc945f

8 cubic miles falling until midnight on the Sunday in Texas and Louisiana

I don't think that there is much you can do to store water with that intense rainfall.
Got that. My question is why release a few brazillion gallons all at once, if that's what they did?
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Old 10th September 2017, 12:44 AM   #234
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Got that. My question is why release a few brazillion gallons all at once, if that's what they did?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oroville_Dam_crisis

I think that by the time Harvey hit, they had no option. They might have had to open the overflow even if the dam had been nearly empty beforehand.

I have no idea what the capacity was, and how quickly they could have emptied the reservoir without causing flooding when they knew Harvey was going to hit.

If they kept the reservoir sufficiently empty to not cause a problem when Harvey hit, I suspect that there would be water shortages whenever it didn't hit.

What threshold do you start emptying it? 80% chance of a major storm hitting? 50%? 10%? What constitutes a major storm?
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Old 10th September 2017, 01:25 AM   #235
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Meanwhile, the Global Severe Weather site and National Hurricane Whatchamacallit, still seem to be banking on a right turn. She's been heading NW for about 15 hours and Rita is history, so no huge weather system out thataway to make Irma turn, from what I see. (But I ain't a meteorologist.)

A right turn is really gonna need to be a right turn and not your usual hurricane swerve if it's going to make any of the predicted landfalls. I'd bet more on the FL panhandle and AL/MS gulf coast. Sharp right turns are not very common for hurricanes.

ETA: All the written reports, including the 2:00 AM updates say "moving NW a 6 mph". But some of those same sources have satellite imagery at that same time and the eye seems to be more towards NNW, so the "sharp" right turn may not be needed. Maintaining the visible track of the eye would take it right up the west coast of FL.
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Old 10th September 2017, 01:38 AM   #236
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The eye of the storm looks to be heading almost directly for Key West

https://www.cyclocane.com/irma-storm-tracker/#section_2
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Old 10th September 2017, 04:57 AM   #237
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Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
One can make a much more solid prediction that every hurricane will be exaggerated at the feet of AGW rather than the reality that a few percent increase in temperature yields a few extra hurricanes every century and a few percent stronger on average. Not a sudden massive increase in every-500-year storms.
Global warming has nothing to do with the number of tropical cyclones (Hurricanes/Typhoons), but it will increase the odds of more severe storms in the future.
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Old 10th September 2017, 05:10 AM   #238
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In the Weather Channel report I linked they explained why the computer models -- which are usually pretty accurate -- predicted the storm track would become northerly. As the storm approaches Florida a huge high pressure system to the northeast will pull Irma from a NW track to a more northerly track.

Meanwhile, the eye passed over the Florida Keys about an hour ago, upgraded to a Cat 4, with 130-mph winds. The storm is now tracking further west then originally predicted.


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Old 10th September 2017, 05:25 AM   #239
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The NOAA site is interesting to see how they developed

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtw...n=atlc&fdays=5
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US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
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Old 10th September 2017, 06:13 AM   #240
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Simon Brewer, a meteorologist and extreme weather journalist, is in the Keys right now as Irma's eye passes through. He's been taking wind readings with a handheld device -- I think the highest he got so far was 117 mph -- and it is wild, with knock-you-off-your feet gusts.

Segment
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