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Tags hurricanes , weather incidents

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Old 10th September 2017, 06:41 AM   #241
Argumemnon
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
In the Weather Channel report I linked they explained why the computer models -- which are usually pretty accurate -- predicted the storm track would become northerly. As the storm approaches Florida a huge high pressure system to the northeast will pull Irma from a NW track to a more northerly track.

Meanwhile, the eye passed over the Florida Keys about an hour ago, upgraded to a Cat 4, with 130-mph winds. The storm is now tracking further west then originally predicted.


.
If it stays longer over water does that mean it's likely to get stronger before it hits the mainland?
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Old 10th September 2017, 06:44 AM   #242
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
The eye of the storm looks to be heading almost directly for Key West

https://www.cyclocane.com/irma-storm-tracker/#section_2
I've already seen what Kirk Cameron said about God sending the hurricane in general, but it didn't have anything specific about Key West because that had not been determined yet. I'm sure the asshope can come up with a justification for it.
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Old 10th September 2017, 06:57 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Got that. My question is why release a few brazillion gallons all at once, if that's what they did?
The water was already going over the spillways. The danger was that the amount of water coming in was so great that there was danger of over-topping the dam (more coming in than the spillway could handle).
Since those are mostly earthen dams, that is a HUGE problem

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Old 10th September 2017, 07:14 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
If it stays longer over water does that mean it's likely to get stronger before it hits the mainland?
I think that's a pretty good concern. According to CNN, in Tampa as of last night the eye was expected to pass a bit to the west. This morning the track looks like it will be about two miles west of Tampa, over the Gulf of Mexico and gathering strength. The storm is cyclical, rotating counter-clockwise, with some of the most severe affects to areas NE of the leading edge of the eye. Tampa is now in that zone.

The good news is, the storm has lost strength, the prediction for Tampa is a Cat 2, but it may build back up to a Cat 3 as it passes over the Gulf. This is the forecast from the National Weather service for the Tampa area:
Quote:
Tampa - Apollo Beach - Westchase * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 2 Hurricane force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 80-100 mph with gusts to 125 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Monday afternoon - Window for Hurricane force winds: early this evening until early Monday morning - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Remain braced against the reasonable threat for major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher. Link.
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Old 10th September 2017, 07:54 AM   #245
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Heavy rains have started here already. Irma is huge.... Not much wind yet, though we did lose one tree already. NW part of town is without power due to a downed tree, though that should be restored soon.
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:00 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by rwguinn View Post
The water was already going over the spillways. The danger was that the amount of water coming in was so great that there was danger of over-topping the dam (more coming in than the spillway could handle).
Since those are mostly earthen dams, that is a HUGE problem

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Thanks. I'm thinking great huge cement dams and channels for the spillways. I didn't think of our own reservoirs here - chiefly man-made lakes with earthen or natural barriers. File it away under B for brainfart.
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:15 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by foophil View Post
Heavy rains have started here already. Irma is huge.... Not much wind yet, though we did lose one tree already. NW part of town is without power due to a downed tree, though that should be restored soon.
I heard it was a light rain.
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:23 AM   #248
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I live in North Georgia. This morning (Sunday, local time 11:20) we have clear skies and cool winds at about 20 mph, with occasional much higher gusts. I've had to take in our porch furniture because the chairs blew over. Our bird feeder has gone elsewhere, and the shepherd's crook it hung on is now at a fifty-degree angle.
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:49 AM   #249
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Tampa here. Already in the out rain bands. No wind yet.
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:55 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
There is more to it than just wind speed (which is what the hurricane categories are graded on). Remember, Harvey landed as a category 1, by the time it reached Houston. Its big hazard was remaining in the same place and dumping 40 inches of rain in a few days. There are also deadly storm surges. Florida is expecting 3 - 10 feet and yet Miami beach is just 3 feet above sea level.

In addition, according to weather expert John Morales of NBC6:



So, we saw Antigua escape major damage, whilst its sister island, Barbuda 95 miles to the North, was flattened, as it was bang in the eye of the storm.

Another hazard are those to nuclear reactors on the shore. Remember Fukushima, after the tsunami in 2004?

Trust the POTUS to call it 'epic'.

Poor choice of words, yet again, as though he's talking about a Hollywood disaster movie.
Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
In the Weather Channel report I linked they explained why the computer models -- which are usually pretty accurate -- predicted the storm track would become northerly. As the storm approaches Florida a huge high pressure system to the northeast will pull Irma from a NW track to a more northerly track.

Meanwhile, the eye passed over the Florida Keys about an hour ago, upgraded to a Cat 4, with 130-mph winds. The storm is now tracking further west then originally predicted.


.
Another interesting write up about models:
US forecast models have been pretty terrible during Hurricane Irma
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:59 AM   #251
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Tampa here. Already in the out rain bands. No wind yet.
Watch out for your neighbor! I'm sure Florida Man is going to be the equivalent of the guy(s) in every typhoon that hit Taiwan when I was there.... We had a pool on how many people would die because they "went down to the shore or fishing boat pier to watch the typhoon come in". It was like clockwork.

I'm quite sure that by Monday, we'll see a "Florida Man Lost in the Gulf After Hurricane Party on the Beach" headline or two.
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Old 10th September 2017, 09:01 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Watch out for your neighbor! I'm sure Florida Man is going to be the equivalent of the guy(s) in every typhoon that hit Taiwan when I was there.... We had a pool on how many people would die because they "went down to the shore or fishing boat pier to watch the typhoon come in". It was like clockwork.

I'm quite sure that by Monday, we'll see a "Florida Man Lost in the Gulf After Hurricane Party on the Beach" headline or two.
Already one teenage pro-surfer killed. One near miss with man knocked down by wave whilst filming it.
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Old 10th September 2017, 09:34 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Watch out for your neighbor! I'm sure Florida Man is going to be the equivalent of the guy(s) in every typhoon that hit Taiwan when I was there.... We had a pool on how many people would die because they "went down to the shore or fishing boat pier to watch the typhoon come in". It was like clockwork.

I'm quite sure that by Monday, we'll see a "Florida Man Lost in the Gulf After Hurricane Party on the Beach" headline or two.
You ain't kidding. I was at Bass Pro Shops on Friday. Although the camping supplies area was sensibly crowded, there was a brisk business at the gun counter too. Just what Florida needs, more untrained twitchy people with guns.
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Old 10th September 2017, 10:27 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
You ain't kidding. I was at Bass Pro Shops on Friday. Although the camping supplies area was sensibly crowded, there was a brisk business at the gun counter too. Just what Florida needs, more untrained twitchy people with guns.
Funny you should mention that. From the Pasco Sheriff:

To clarify, DO NOT shoot weapons @ #Irma. You won't make it turn around & it will have very dangerous side effects
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Old 10th September 2017, 10:34 AM   #255
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A TV reporter in Miami for the local NBC affiliate, Channel 6, is out on Brickell Avenue, one of the major thoroughfares and the one closest to Biscayne Bay. It is beginning to flood. The screen cap below was taken as he began to walk east on SE 12th Street towards the Bay.

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Old 10th September 2017, 10:53 AM   #256
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The reporter, Jose Diaz-Balart, is walking east on SE 12th Street towards Biscayne Bay. He reports he can see the waves off the Bay breaking over the retaining wall. At SE 12th and Brickell Bay Drive the water is already knee deep.

.
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Old 10th September 2017, 10:57 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
I so can't wait to move.
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Old 10th September 2017, 11:10 AM   #258
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BTW: There is one brutal coincidence:
Did Czech calendar foretell the arrival of Hurricane Irma?

Darkly funny...
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Old 10th September 2017, 01:01 PM   #259
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
A TV reporter in Miami for the local NBC affiliate, Channel 6, is out on Brickell Avenue, one of the major thoroughfares and the one closest to Biscayne Bay. It is beginning to flood. The screen cap below was taken as he began to walk east on SE 12th Street towards the Bay.

Link
Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
The reporter, Jose Diaz-Balart, is walking east on SE 12th Street towards Biscayne Bay. He reports he can see the waves off the Bay breaking over the retaining wall. At SE 12th and Brickell Bay Drive the water is already knee deep.

.
I'm really tired of watching these idiot reporters out doing what they just spent half the morning telling us what to do.
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Old 10th September 2017, 01:28 PM   #260
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I'm really tired of watching these idiot reporters out doing what they just spent half the morning telling us what to do.
Aye. It's the cult of flamboyance and it drives me nuts too.

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Old 10th September 2017, 01:36 PM   #261
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I'm really tired of watching these idiot reporters out doing what they just spent half the morning telling us what to do.
I'm of two minds on this. On the one hand, telling people to evacuate when the reporter is clearly not evacuating seems strange. On the other hand, If people in the path don't see how bad it is, there may be a danger of them not taking seriously.
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Old 10th September 2017, 02:34 PM   #262
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Looks kind of underwhelming so far for mainland Florida.

The keys took a Cat 4 hit, though.
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Old 10th September 2017, 02:39 PM   #263
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Looks kind of underwhelming so far for mainland Florida.

The keys took a Cat 4 hit, though.
Not from my vantage point.
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Old 10th September 2017, 02:42 PM   #264
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I'm of two minds on this. On the one hand, telling people to evacuate when the reporter is clearly not evacuating seems strange. On the other hand, If people in the path don't see how bad it is, there may be a danger of them not taking seriously.
Mmmm, but when "how bad it is" sees the reporter just about managing to stay on his feet then I'd say it's a very bad message to send.
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Old 10th September 2017, 03:21 PM   #265
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Isn't this what reporters have always done? Isn't it essentially their job? With family in South Florida I definitely value the extensive coverage. Been watching the networks and CNN on and off all day.
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Old 10th September 2017, 04:28 PM   #266
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Forget coming, the bitch is here.
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Old 10th September 2017, 05:16 PM   #267
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Finally some good news. The Mayor of Naples FL just told MSNBC that they have been told, the eye of the storm has dissipated and the wind circulation from west to east is not expected to produce the kind of storm surge as originally expected along Florida's Gulf coast.
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Old 10th September 2017, 05:39 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Finally some good news. The Mayor of Naples FL just told MSNBC that they have been told, the eye of the storm has dissipated and the wind circulation from west to east is not expected to produce the kind of storm surge as originally expected along Florida's Gulf coast.
Around 5:30 or so, the Weather Channel reporter was reporting live from Naples and he said he was in the eye. It was calm there. He said he was just waiting for the other side of the eyewall to reach him with the high winds and rain again. The guy on the desk said he likely would not see the other side of the eyewall come through as it had largely dissipated already.
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Old 10th September 2017, 06:26 PM   #269
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Here's supposedly some video from this morning looking out the windows of a home in Big Pine Key while it was in the eyewall of the storm. It's said in the video that this is before the eye had actually arrived and that the estimated storm surge at the time was about 7 feet.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...9&id=807759548

I was asked at the link to sign in to Facebook, but I was able to download the video without doing so by using the download program "youtube-dl." I don't really do Facebook myself.

ETA: Here's a picture by someone else of some boats on the road in Big Pine Key after the water had subsided. It looks like they're on the main road - Highway 1.

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/st...93196252745729

The same fellow has a picture of someone's roof on his driveway, too.

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Old 10th September 2017, 07:00 PM   #270
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I have been following some of the developments on a weather forum. A lot of the discussion is technical but everyone agrees, Irma is still a powerful and dangerous storm. One point some of the folks make is, we really don't know too much about the overall effects in places away from news reporting or some footage posted on a few social media sites.

Here's a radar scan from 9:30PM EDT tonight. Still a huge amount of water and energy in this storm. If I understand this (doubtful), the yellow-red bands in the lower left are the core of the storm; the eye has 'closed.' The dark area in the middle is the dry air flow Irma is picking up as she moves over land. That is what is weakening the storm. I think over the last couple of hours the storm has tracked further east-northeast than expected.

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Old 10th September 2017, 07:08 PM   #271
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Isn't this what reporters have always done? Isn't it essentially their job? With family in South Florida I definitely value the extensive coverage. Been watching the networks and CNN on and off all day.
One can have extensive coverage without stunts. A hotel room with a nice window or they have these fancy "green screen" contraptions. You can still throw in a guy wading in the water (maybe with a life preserver and a harness) as a demonstration. Preferably taped so there's no on-air horror show.

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Old 10th September 2017, 07:38 PM   #272
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Irma is heading closer to us near Orlando than expected earlier today. We have experienced heavy rain since early this afternoon. Around 5:30 in the afternoon, I posted on Facebook that we hadn't seen much wind. A few minutes later an incredible gust hit us. We saw trees bending. It was very brief, though. About the same time a Tornado Warning alert was issued for our area.

A few more hours passed before the wind picked up. It is now sustained around 30 mph, I think, with strong gusts every once in a while.

We lost power a couple of hours ago. We saw sparks through our front windows and heard a loud bang as a transformer blew up. We have a small generator outside that is powering a TV and fan.

Our front yard looked like a lake before the sun went down. I am confident that our house is high enough that we don't have to worry, but it is disconcerting that we can't see very well what is happening. We are hearing things hit the house occasionally.

The worst for us is still a few hours away.

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Old 10th September 2017, 07:59 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I'm really tired of watching these idiot reporters out doing what they just spent half the morning telling us what to do.
It's boring, stupid. I ended up watching Fox for a while because they had a little more info than CNN and MSNBC who both had their idiots standing out in the wind and rain trying to talk non-stop when they had nothing to say.
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:01 PM   #274
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Radar has picked up a lot of tornado activity in the storm. This is one of the problems mentioned about a very limited amount of information coming in. It will probably not be known until tomorrow whether or how much tornado damage might have been done.
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:02 PM   #275
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I'm of two minds on this. On the one hand, telling people to evacuate when the reporter is clearly not evacuating seems strange. On the other hand, If people in the path don't see how bad it is, there may be a danger of them not taking seriously.
I don't have an issue with reporters staying in the evacuated areas. They usually have some kind of safe place to be.

But 24 hour coverage of an idiot reporter standing in the wind, WTF, how is that supposed to be interesting? And then you always have the station reporter telling them to get inside, stay safe, whatever, are we supposed to believe they are risking their lives to get the story scoop?
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:17 PM   #276
newyorkguy
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Originally Posted by jadebox View Post
...Our front yard looked like a lake before the sun went down. I am confident that our house is high enough that we don't have to worry, but it is disconcerting that we can't see very well what is happening. We are hearing things hit the house occasionally.

The worst for us is still a few hours away.
Good luck!
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:32 PM   #277
Trebuchet
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Helmets. They could at least have helmets on those guys standing around amidst the flying debris they keep telling us about.
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Old 10th September 2017, 08:55 PM   #278
Delphic Oracle
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Helmets. They could at least have helmets on those guys standing around amidst the flying debris they keep telling us about.
I like where this is going :9.

Water-tight skin suit, life preserver and wading boots by Body Glove, to keep your core dry and prevent hypothermia.

PPE including helmet, eye protection, Skyhook™ Harness kit, and hi-viz vest by 3M, leading global industrial supplier, you can find these products and more at your local Grainger. Grainger: the ones who get it done!

There, you just indicated how dangerous the situation is if you aren't properly prepared and just got the network a few hundred thousand dollars in product placement.

This world is run by morons, I swear.

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Old 10th September 2017, 09:09 PM   #279
Foolmewunz
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Helmets. They could at least have helmets on those guys standing around amidst the flying debris they keep telling us about.
Was it Dan Rather who got his first national exposure covering one of the Gulf Coast hurricanes, 'lo those many years ago? It was one of the national anchors, I'm sure.
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Old 10th September 2017, 09:19 PM   #280
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Is it too late to buy orange juice futures? Irma seems to be going right up through central Florida, which is where I believe the orange groves are, and I doubt orange trees are as resistant to wind damage as the palms that are shown bending with the wind. With tropical storm force winds covering the entire state, and hurricane force winds in much of the center, I would have to believe there will be a lot of damage.

But.....they do grow the things in Florida. They have to be at least somewhat resilient. It's not like hurricanes haven't gone through before. They just don't normally cover the entire state.


ETA: Yes, OJ futures have spiked, although only 10% or so, but that is apparently very large.
https://slate.com/business/2017/09/h...e-futures.html

Last edited by Meadmaker; 10th September 2017 at 09:22 PM.
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