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Old 10th September 2017, 09:32 PM   #281
Delphic Oracle
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Is it too late to buy orange juice futures? Irma seems to be going right up through central Florida, which is where I believe the orange groves are, and I doubt orange trees are as resistant to wind damage as the palms that are shown bending with the wind. With tropical storm force winds covering the entire state, and hurricane force winds in much of the center, I would have to believe there will be a lot of damage.

But.....they do grow the things in Florida. They have to be at least somewhat resilient. It's not like hurricanes haven't gone through before. They just don't normally cover the entire state.


ETA: Yes, OJ futures have spiked, although only 10% or so, but that is apparently very large.
https://slate.com/business/2017/09/h...e-futures.html
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Old 10th September 2017, 09:37 PM   #282
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Power is still on here, though the winds are only just starting to hammer us. I'm going to try and sleep some. Hard with stuff hitting the house occasionally, and the wind blowing so loudly.

Regarding orange trees, they are pretty hardy things. They have a good root base and don't grow really tall (and therefore top heavy). The fruit is all small and green, so it won't all fall off from the winds. I have both a mature sour orange tree, a mature grapefruit tree, and a young tangerine tree.
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Old 11th September 2017, 03:23 AM   #283
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MSNBC was going on (and on and on...) last night about how the reduced storm surge was a blessing, but might cause some to question the NHC's forecasting abilities and doubt evacuation orders in future storms. My Verizon FIOS doesn't carry The Weather Channel, or we would have watched that instead.
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Old 11th September 2017, 03:34 AM   #284
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This morning another Weather Channel guy was standing in Jacksonville. The wind was 31 mph with gusts to 42 in Jacksonville, according to the data on the screen. He was going on and on about how bad it was there, as if he were standing in the middle of the end of the world.

I have no doubt that there was a lot of damage from Irma, but I hope I am right and it was far less than expected.
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Old 11th September 2017, 04:06 AM   #285
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Originally Posted by foophil View Post
Power is still on here, though the winds are only just starting to hammer us. I'm going to try and sleep some. Hard with stuff hitting the house occasionally, and the wind blowing so loudly.

Regarding orange trees, they are pretty hardy things. They have a good root base and don't grow really tall (and therefore top heavy). The fruit is all small and green, so it won't all fall off from the winds. I have both a mature sour orange tree, a mature grapefruit tree, and a young tangerine tree.
I lost power a few times last night but it came back on. Haven't been out to survey the damage yet though.
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Old 11th September 2017, 04:58 AM   #286
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
This morning another Weather Channel guy was standing in Jacksonville. The wind was 31 mph with gusts to 42 in Jacksonville, according to the data on the screen. He was going on and on about how bad it was there, as if he were standing in the middle of the end of the world.

I have no doubt that there was a lot of damage from Irma, but I hope I am right and it was far less than expected.
Yes, i think the damage is FAR FAR less, in Florida, than the news reporters were hoping for.

The main question is, that it seemed government pulled out all the stops to get everyone to leave for this storm, THE BIGGEST STORM EVER, what are they going to do when that next Category 3 storm makes a direct hit? No one is going to leave for a little storm like that.

Oh and ThanksTrump, for saving Florida by using that weather technology to reduce it to 120mph and Cat 3 before it hit.


Is there a James Randi Challenge for weather predictions? I pretty much nailed this one earlier in the thread.
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Old 11th September 2017, 05:11 AM   #287
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Yes, i think the damage is FAR FAR less, in Florida, than the news reporters were hoping for.

The main question is, that it seemed government pulled out all the stops to get everyone to leave for this storm, THE BIGGEST STORM EVER, what are they going to do when that next Category 3 storm makes a direct hit? No one is going to leave for a little storm like that.

Oh and ThanksTrump, for saving Florida by using that weather technology to reduce it to 120mph and Cat 3 before it hit.


Is there a James Randi Challenge for weather predictions? I pretty much nailed this one earlier in the thread.
Well, it was a Cat 4 at US landfall, actually. I didn't know that they counted the keys as landfall, but they do. Thus this is the first time on record that two Cat 4 hurricanes hit the US in one year.
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Old 11th September 2017, 05:14 AM   #288
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I find it amazing that power crews were able to work in those conditions and restore people's power. My daughter and her family's power went off Saturday afternoon but was restored by evening. Unfortunately it went off again Sunday morning, and the last I heard, was still off on Sunday evening. It's very hot and humid in south Florida. Already 81 degrees at 8AM in Miami and expected to reach 90.

I read on another message board that a long convoy of utility trucks was spotted on I95 heading south from the Northeast so they will be getting plenty of help in the days ahead.
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Old 11th September 2017, 05:25 AM   #289
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No serious damage to our home near Orlando. But, there is no doubt that we had a hurricane come through. We have limbs and downed trees throughout our yard. A neighbor's utility lines are down along one of our fences. Our road is covered with trees and limbs. I didn't see any downed power lines in the road, but I did see twisted and dangling lines. We probably won't have power restored for days.
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Old 11th September 2017, 05:35 AM   #290
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We'll need to clear the roads in my subdivision before anyone can get out in a car. The main road to my south is blocked by flooding.
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Old 11th September 2017, 05:35 AM   #291
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Originally Posted by jadebox View Post
...We probably won't have power restored for days.
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Old 11th September 2017, 05:49 AM   #292
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Yes, i think the damage is FAR FAR less, in Florida, than the news reporters were hoping for.

The main question is, that it seemed government pulled out all the stops to get everyone to leave for this storm, THE BIGGEST STORM EVER, what are they going to do when that next Category 3 storm makes a direct hit? No one is going to leave for a little storm like that.

Oh and ThanksTrump, for saving Florida by using that weather technology to reduce it to 120mph and Cat 3 before it hit.


Is there a James Randi Challenge for weather predictions? I pretty much nailed this one earlier in the thread.
Something that isn't obvious from the news reporting is that Cuba took the hardest hit, and softened it up a bit for us Americans. That slight miss on the westward track of the storm both reduced the winds and reduced the size of the population center that took the big hit.
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Old 11th September 2017, 06:10 AM   #293
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On weather related message boards the storm striking Cuba -- traveling over land -- reducing Irma's intensity has been discussed. The projected track was also off about 25 miles from the actual track and that made a huge difference, especially for South Florida.
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Old 11th September 2017, 06:30 AM   #294
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Reports of damage along the east coast of Florida sound worse than we get from storms that actually hit the east coast. Jacksonville had record storm surge and it is pretty much as far from where Irma made landfall on the Florida peninsula as you can get and still be in Florida.
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Old 11th September 2017, 06:42 AM   #295
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The Weather Channel guy said the Westward travel allowed dry air to affect Irma more than they expected.
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Old 11th September 2017, 07:39 AM   #296
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We've gone from hoping we'll still have a house to hoping we still have a pool cage.
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Old 11th September 2017, 08:09 AM   #297
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There was a lot of damage done to the screen on my pool cage by the debris.
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Old 11th September 2017, 08:15 AM   #298
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Originally Posted by Modified View Post
We've gone from hoping we'll still have a house to hoping we still have a pool cage.

Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
There was a lot of damage done to the screen on my pool cage by the debris.

I just hope neither of your pools escaped. They can be difficult to recapture, especially since most of them aren't trained to come on command.

(I know there are some people who deliberately let their pools run free, but keeping them caged is actually more humane, and better for the surrounding wildlife too.)
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Old 11th September 2017, 08:17 AM   #299
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
I just hope neither of your pools escaped. They can be difficult to recapture, especially since most of them aren't trained to come on command.

(I know there are some people who deliberately let their pools run free, but keeping them caged is actually more humane, and better for the surrounding wildlife too.)
And no matter what the so-called "responsible" pool owners say they are deadly!
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Old 11th September 2017, 08:19 AM   #300
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
I just hope neither of your pools escaped. They can be difficult to recapture, especially since most of them aren't trained to come on command.
See, that's the real problem. Not pools that drown children, but pool owners who don't train their pools properly.

You should all be ashamed of yourselves.
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Old 11th September 2017, 08:37 AM   #301
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It looks like widespread power outages that will take a long time to fix are going to be the major story of Irma's impact. Except on the Keys, where we don't know yet what the impacts have been.

(I've been fooled before in the first 48 hours after tsunamis, earthquakes, hurricanes and so forth in thinking "it must not have been so bad," because it takes at least that long for news of the worst impacts to come to light.)

There will be some backlash against the evacuations. I've already heard some people predicting that some future hurricane will have more casualties, because people will remember being "unnecessarily" stuck on highways, having to abandon their cars, etc. due to the uncertainty of the forecast, and stay put instead.

However, I think nowadays, so many people have no clue about how to meet their basic needs without electricity that the power outages alone will make most of the evacuations worthwhile in the balance.

I hope meteorologists will carefully study why the various models were so consistently off in the same direction, and learn from that. I understand that input data is uncertain and incomplete, and the granularity of the models and the inherent chaotic nature of weather systems introduces more uncertainty. But in this case the models were in agreement with each other, but wrong, over and over, even about what was going to happen in the next six hours. It seems as though some significant variable is being overlooked.
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Old 11th September 2017, 08:53 AM   #302
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
It looks like widespread power outages that will take a long time to fix are going to be the major story of Irma's impact. Except on the Keys, where we don't know yet what the impacts have been.

(I've been fooled before in the first 48 hours after tsunamis, earthquakes, hurricanes and so forth in thinking "it must not have been so bad," because it takes at least that long for news of the worst impacts to come to light.)

There will be some backlash against the evacuations. I've already heard some people predicting that some future hurricane will have more casualties, because people will remember being "unnecessarily" stuck on highways, having to abandon their cars, etc. due to the uncertainty of the forecast, and stay put instead.

However, I think nowadays, so many people have no clue about how to meet their basic needs without electricity that the power outages alone will make most of the evacuations worthwhile in the balance.

I hope meteorologists will carefully study why the various models were so consistently off in the same direction, and learn from that. I understand that input data is uncertain and incomplete, and the granularity of the models and the inherent chaotic nature of weather systems introduces more uncertainty. But in this case the models were in agreement with each other, but wrong, over and over, even about what was going to happen in the next six hours. It seems as though some significant variable is being overlooked.
Not all models were wrong. ECMWF: European global model got it right.

Links:
US forecast models have been pretty terrible during Hurricane Irma
Here’s what the world’s most accurate weather model predicts for Irma
Quote:
Now, you may be wondering, "Why is the official forecast so far to the left, when all of the other models had moved east?" The answer is the European model. This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations. But more importantly, it has a method by which it better assimilates real-world data—observations from weather networks around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and much more—into its calculations.
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Old 11th September 2017, 08:55 AM   #303
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I am very happy that ISF members appear to have weathered Irma in comparatively fair shape (and I do realize coastal areas may yet experience the full storm surge).

Oddly I am now expecting (and perhaps it has already happened) the inevitable whining by many others that Irma was not as deadly in the major metropolitan areas of Florida as the warnings indicated it might be. That they bought all those supplies, or even evacuated their homes, only to find that they are still alive and their homes, although damaged, are still standing. Those damn wimpy scientists- what do they know- just frightening everyone... Cue Rush again, right?

It must be tremendously disappointing to find out that that you were relatively lucky and although hit by a massive storm with major wind and flooding damage, you didn't wake up dead, or to find that the hurricane didn't wipe your community out to the bare ground, as it did parts of the Caribbean (and I imagine) in the Florida Keys.

Obviously predicting paths of hurricanes in detail is famously difficult to do. Nonetheless prior to improved methods of prediction, many thousands of people died in hurricanes that they could not adequately anticipate nor plan for.


People are funny creatures. The reverse recently happened in Italy where scientists were convicted of manslaughter because they failed to predict an earthquake and their statements (at least as quoted by politicians) were viewed as too reassuring. Since overturned.
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Old 11th September 2017, 09:12 AM   #304
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I'm becoming more and more annoyed with the lack of reporting (on CNN, because that's what my wife has on) of what has happened in the keys.
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Old 11th September 2017, 09:17 AM   #305
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I'm becoming more and more annoyed with the lack of reporting (on CNN, because that's what my wife has on) of what has happened in the keys.

The reporters have to find them first.
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Old 11th September 2017, 09:32 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I'm becoming more and more annoyed with the lack of reporting (on CNN, because that's what my wife has on) of what has happened in the keys.
None of the other 24 hour channels or the local Florida channels have much on the Keys.
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Old 11th September 2017, 09:33 AM   #307
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
There was a lot of damage done to the screen on my pool cage by the debris.
Just heard from my neighbors. We lost a few screens and a fence gate - nothing else obvious. Power is already restored in our neighborhood.

My sister has a condo near the water in Naples though. That could be bad.
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Old 11th September 2017, 09:42 AM   #308
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I'm becoming more and more annoyed with the lack of reporting (on CNN, because that's what my wife has on) of what has happened in the keys.
CNN had a reporter on Key Largo saying everything is gone (it won't be) and that a restaurant he ate at two nights prior is demolished. The video should still be there. Then they had video from Big Pine Key with seawater everywhere. There is probably even some footage from Key West where I think was the worst hit.

As you probably know, Key Largo is the furthest Key from Key West and yet still was heavily damaged. All of those islands are only a few feet above sea level.

Pretty soon Florida is going to smell horrible. I was in Homestead a couple weeks after Andrew and everywhere stank of rotting vegetation. The hurricane scours all the leaves from trees and kills lots of them and other foliage and then it all starts to decompose.
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Old 11th September 2017, 09:45 AM   #309
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CNN is streaming live from an aircraft flying over the Overseas Highway. Looks like the state troopers are letting people who live there back in. They've shows a couple of overturned semi trailers and some boats that got washed up onto land. Haven't seen any of the actual Keys yet.
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Old 11th September 2017, 09:50 AM   #310
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Quote:
Fury at the Keys as residents denied access

12:00 p.m.: Tensions ran high at the entrance to the Florida Keys late Monday morning as families waited in the heat to return home. Some still hadn't heard from friends and relatives who had stayed behind.

Officials from the Monroe County Sheriffs Office said they were only letting utilities companies and a few contractors from the Department of Transportation pass. But after two unmarked cars went through the checkpoint, Keys residents waiting at a RaceTrac gas station erupted in protest.

"That's ********!" a bearded Keys resident, who refused to give his name, shouted at the police. "Those people are tourists!"

When a deputy sheriff approached him, the man put his hands behind his back and dared the official to arrest him.

"People are dying in there. They're thirsty, they're hungry," he told the official.

"I say we all just get in the car and drive. What are they going to do? Shoot us?" another man yelled to the others waiting at the gas station.

"This stuff right here is the reason why next storm they aren't going to get people out of the Keys," said the man, who identified himself as a Cudjoe Key resident but did not want to give his name. "I've been in the Keys for 40 years. This is the first time I ever evacuated and it'll be my last."
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weat...172537476.html

IIRC, Cudjoe Key is where Irma made landfall as a cat 4.
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Old 11th September 2017, 10:07 AM   #311
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Some scenes from the Keys here...

http://www.cnn.com/videos/weather/20...-keys-weir.cnn
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Old 11th September 2017, 10:33 AM   #312
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I think there may be video from a rescue of two manatees. Here's an image...

http://www.wsbradio.com/rf/image/Wir...43cbb90175.jpg
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Old 11th September 2017, 11:49 AM   #313
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I think there may be video from a rescue of two manatees. Here's an image...

http://www.wsbradio.com/rf/image/Wir...43cbb90175.jpg
Oh, the huge manatee!

I do understand that the keys have been evacuated and it's tough to get the news out. I'd just like to know more. What's become of Hemingway's polydactyl cats?
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Old 11th September 2017, 12:00 PM   #314
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I read that the staff at the Hemingway house were staying put as they didn't think it was possible to evacuate so many cats safely. I haven't heard how they fared though.

ETA: I just googled. Multiple news articles saying they're safe, all nine lives intact.
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Old 11th September 2017, 12:03 PM   #315
William Parcher
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Won't anyone think of the chickens?
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Old 11th September 2017, 12:07 PM   #316
Faydra
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Every time I read the title of this thread, I hear it in my head like someone from "The Wire"..


Irma's coming, yo!
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Old 11th September 2017, 01:02 PM   #317
Checkmite
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Quote:
"This stuff right here is the reason why next storm they aren't going to get people out of the Keys," said the man, who identified himself as a Cudjoe Key resident but did not want to give his name. "I've been in the Keys for 40 years. This is the first time I ever evacuated and it'll be my last."
What a damn tool.

There's actual rescues and a hell of a lot of work going on to make the Keys safe for residents to return right now. You can wait just a little longer to get back to your house with no electricity or running water that's technically uninhabitable by human standards.
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Old 11th September 2017, 01:16 PM   #318
William Parcher
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The highway might be impassable in places preventing anyone from going far. You don't have roadway options in the Keys.
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Old 11th September 2017, 01:46 PM   #319
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These wind speeds and rainfalls are beyond my comprehension.
I hope you and your loved ones all are safe.

But Milo Y.'s house has been destroyed by this liberal hoax. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, he's previous been mocking hurricane victims.
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Old 11th September 2017, 02:14 PM   #320
Vixen
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Oh, the huge manatee!

I do understand that the keys have been evacuated and it's tough to get the news out. I'd just like to know more. What's become of Hemingway's polydactyl cats?
They survived. The house was unscathed.

It was wonderful, too, to see the endangered Key deer who survived, still skipping about along the highway. They were almost extinct in 1951 with just 25 of them, so have been carefully monitored since.

There is a video of them. See it here:

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/11...urricane-irma/
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