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Brexit: Now What? Part IV

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GlennB

Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
GlennB
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This is a continuation from here. As is usual, posters are free to copy & paste from previous iterations of the thread.
Posted By: Agatha



ceptimus said:
Poor analogy choice as it implies that some could go down the slide while some remain behind.

This was a group choice. Of those that chose to vote, the majority of the group were in favour and the group leaders subsequently announced that they agreed with the decision and were determined to carry it out. The attitude of most of the group remains, "Just get on with it!" A vocal minority are still trying to reverse the decision by any and all means possible.
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But they didn't know about the spike, did they? Being able to take in new information, change one's mind and admit error is the way adults are supposed to behave, not least when the future of the entire country is in peril.
 
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In terms of your analogy, I think there isn't a spike. Project Fear was warning of knives, rotating blades, boiling oil, demons, and so on - even before the vote was taken. After the result went against their personal preference they've continued to invent other imagined hazards to try to get people to change their minds.

To get back to the real issue, the problem is that the constant moaning by remainers isn't actually preventing the Brexit process - but by dangling the prospect of a non-Brexit in front of the negotiators (on both sides) it is allowing them to be more comfortable with their lack of progress - and this will ultimately benefit no one. It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.
 
ceptimus said:
In terms of your analogy, I think there isn't a spike. Project Fear was warning of knives, rotating blades, boiling oil, demons, and so on - even before the vote was taken. After the result went against their personal preference they've continued to invent other imagined hazards to try to get people to change their minds.

To get back to the real issue, the problem is that the constant moaning by remainers isn't actually preventing the Brexit process - but by dangling the prospect of a non-Brexit in front of the negotiators (on both sides) it is allowing them to be more comfortable with their lack of progress - and this will ultimately benefit no one. It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.
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The most that 'getting on board' could consist of would be saying nothing. I cannot be cheering it on because I don't believe that any form of it could be anything other than catastrophic, and I have seen no evidence that would suggest otherwise. But you think that when I (rightly or wrongly) see my country as being led into disaster, the right thing for me to do would be to encourage that?
 
Apparently the right thing to do if you're locked in a house with people who have just set fire to it is to help them burn it down.
 
ceptimus said:
In terms of your analogy, I think there isn't a spike. Project Fear was warning of knives, rotating blades, boiling oil, demons, and so on - even before the vote was taken. After the result went against their personal preference they've continued to invent other imagined hazards to try to get people to change their minds.

To get back to the real issue, the problem is that the constant moaning by remainers isn't actually preventing the Brexit process - but by dangling the prospect of a non-Brexit in front of the negotiators (on both sides) it is allowing them to be more comfortable with their lack of progress - and this will ultimately benefit no one. It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.
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Er, the problems with the UK leaving the EU will only happen once the UK has left the EU. All that happens beforehand is that people factor in the likely effects and, say the currency gets devalued, so that inflation rises.
to use the slide analogy, we've been on the slide since March 31, 2017 but the ride is only going to get bumpy after March 31, 2019. Pretending anything else is just silly.




As for the problems ahead:

Do you have any idea how many goods are transported between the UK and the EU? Do you have any idea hoe the UK customs are going to deal with this on April 1st 2019? Do you have any idea what is going to happen with flights to the EU27 on April 1st 2019? Do you have any idea what is going to happen with perishable foods travelling either direction on April 1st 2019?

If you do, please could you inform Theresa May. If you do, can you also explain how these are not going to be disasters?


Pretending that this is the fault of the people who are pointing this out is even sillier.

Pretending that Theresa May has a clear negotiating position is rubbish - she is being ambiguous, because as soon as she is clear on her position she'll lose support. However that is not tenable when we have until March 2019 to finalise everything.

ETA: and I have reported this thread for housekeeping as it's getting long
 
ceptimus said:
It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.
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Oh good. How? As a software engineer should I start work on the IT systems for HMRC to handle the WTO tariffs at ports? Perhaps I should hack into the Home Office systems and make them fit for purpose? Either should only take me a few decades. No other bugger seems to be doing it.

This is one of the sillier mantras from brexiteers - that if we all come together and sing Kumbaya all these nasty factsessss will just disappear and we'll begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure.
 
Pixel42 said:
Apparently the right thing to do if you're locked in a house with people who have sprinkled petrol around the house and have got some matches out, but haven't yet lit them is to avoid pointing out that this is a bad idea but that they needn't light the matches have just set fire to it is to help them burn it down.
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A slight modification, that makes it less pithy, but I think improves the analogy. Not that yours was incorrect.
 
Wudang said:
Oh good. How? As a software engineer should I start work on the IT systems for HMRC to handle the WTO tariffs at ports? Perhaps I should hack into the Home Office systems and make them fit for purpose? Either should only take me a few decades. No other bugger seems to be doing it.

This is one of the sillier mantras from brexiteers - that if we all come together and sing Kumbaya all these nasty factsessss will just disappear and we'll begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure.
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Indeed, this summers NAO report on the new Customs Declaration Service software made worrying reading.
 
Remember the ludicrously-over-hyped "Y2K bug" ? The fears over Brexit are of the same type. Of course, there was nothing that people fearful of Y2K could do to stop it happening - they just had to stock up with essential supplies, retreat to their bunkers and worry. People with similar irrational fears over Brexit think that they might actually stop it happening - and they do their best to convince other people to share in their fears.

I suppose there's nothing to persuade them that they're wrong - they'll see after Brexit how unfounded their fears were, but by then they will have already damaged the process and made things worse for themselves and everyone else. Their doom-laden predictions will push us towards a sort of tragic self-fulfilling prophesy.

The only thing the rest of us can try is to do our best to ignore the nay-sayers and soldier on.
 
Speaking as someone who helped fixed it I can confirm that the Y2K bug was real, and would have caused real problems if it hadn't been fixed. The equivalent with Brexit would be to prevent Brexit happening, so the real problems it would cause never materialise.
 
Same. I remember getting my budget approved then fixing/replacing and testing hardware and software months in advance. Pretty much the opposite of what's happening with Brexit where the Customs will be using a system that hasn't been tested at the levels that may be needed after we leave the EU...assuming it can even be delivered on time.
 
ceptimus said:
Remember the ludicrously-over-hyped "Y2K bug" ? The fears over Brexit are of the same type. Of course, there was nothing that people fearful of Y2K could do to stop it happening - they just had to stock up with essential supplies, retreat to their bunkers and worry. People with similar irrational fears over Brexit think that they might actually stop it happening - and they do their best to convince other people to share in their fears.
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That's the typical ill-informed nonsense you hear from people who don't rely on "experts". Like Pixel42, I worked on Y2K-related projects for the best part of a decade. Most of it wasn't critically safety related, mostly it was finance and accounting systems which would have caused major inconvenience but no loss of life.

One notable exception was the amount of effort that went into ensuring that Scottish Hydro's systems would stay online - a lack of electricity would have been disasterous.

The reason why the Y2K was such a damp squib in the end were the millions upon millions of hours of effort put in over the course of decades by highly skilled and experienced engineers, IT professionals, managers, risk planners and so on.....

Tbh it's the same kind of thinking I've heard repeatedly when clients say "I don't know why I bothered to have a project manager, they were a waste of money because nothing went wrong". :boggled:
 
Indeed I can't take seriously someone who says that the Millennium bug was overhyped nonsense. It was a very serious problem that thousands of people worked hard to put right, and if they hadn't it would indeed have been disastrous.
 
ceptimus said:
I suppose there's nothing to persuade them that they're wrong - they'll see after Brexit how unfounded their fears were, but by then they will have already damaged the process and made things worse for themselves and everyone else. Their doom-laden predictions will push us towards a sort of tragic self-fulfilling prophesy.

The only thing the rest of us can try is to do our best to ignore the nay-sayers and soldier on.
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Oh yes, its all the remoaners fault that Brexit went wrong. If only they had "got on board"
 
ceptimus said:
Remember the ludicrously-over-hyped "Y2K bug" ? The fears over Brexit are of the same type. Of course, there was nothing that people fearful of Y2K could do to stop it happening - they just had to stock up with essential supplies, retreat to their bunkers and worry.
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Bilge.

I worked for 12 months solid on Y2K - for one client - to fix s/w problems before they had a chance to bite. And it wasn't legacy software, by any stretch of the imagination. Countless other people did similar work.

eta: And, just in case you were being ironic, Y2K problems within a given system could be identified years in advance. With Brexit we have yet to learn quite what needs fixing.
 
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jimbob said:
<snip>




As for the problems ahead:

Do you have any idea how many goods are transported between the UK and the EU? Do you have any idea hoe the UK customs are going to deal with this on April 1st 2019?
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Thay have that covered. I read about it in an article posted upthread (Er, last thread).

They're gonna build a parking lot*. Already setting aside the money for it.

Do you have any idea what is going to happen with flights to the EU27 on April 1st 2019?
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A really, really big parking lot?

Do you have any idea what is going to happen with perishable foods travelling either direction on April 1st 2019?

<snip>
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That's easy. A parking lot with a farmer's market.

--------------------------

*: I'm not sure how that does anything but make space for the problem to get bigger. A parking lot would act as a reservoir, sure, but reservoirs work on the principle that there are periods where the storage can be relieved. If they don't have a system to do that then a parking lot only gives more shipments a place out of the way to wait, until it fills up. If they can't process as fast as the stuff is coming through it won't make any difference. Sooner or later they're gonna run out of parking.
 
quadraginta said:
Thay have that covered. I read about it in an article posted upthread (Er, last thread).

They're gonna build a parking lot*. Already setting aside the money for it.

A really, really big parking lot?

That's easy. A parking lot with a farmer's market.
--------------------------

*: I'm not sure how that does anything but make space for the problem to get bigger. A parking lot would act as a reservoir, sure, but reservoirs work on the principle that there are periods where the storage can be relieved. If they don't have a system to do that then a parking lot only gives more shipments a place out of the way to wait, until it fills up. If they can't process as fast as the stuff is coming through it won't make any difference. Sooner or later they're gonna run out of parking.
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It's called Kent.
 
You're all missing the point again.

The problems with the Y2K bug were real. There was no way of avoiding Y2K so people got on with the job and fixed the problems.

The problems with Brexit are real. Instead of getting on with it and solving the problems people are instead trying to prevent Brexit happening.

To listen to some people talk, there'll be no planes flying on the day after Brexit. Clearly this sort of thing is ludicrous as planes fly between EU and non-EU countries all the time. This is the sort of issue that could be resolved in days if only people got on with the job instead of trying to use the "impossibility" as an excuse to get what they want instead of what the democratic majority wants.
 
ceptimus said:
You're all missing the point again.

The problems with the Y2K bug were real. There was no way of avoiding Y2K so people got on with the job and fixed the problems.

The problems with Brexit are real. Instead of getting on with it and solving the problems people are instead trying to prevent Brexit happening.

To listen to some people talk, there'll be no planes flying on the day after Brexit. Clearly this sort of thing is ludicrous as planes fly between EU and non-EU countries all the time. This is the sort of issue that could be resolved in days if only people got on with the job instead of trying to use the "impossibility" as an excuse to get what they want instead of what the democratic majority wants.
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This is the remit of the Brexit ministry. Who is in charge of that, a remoner? I thought David 3-day-week Davis was just a lazy dullard with no sense of how far out of his depth he is, I didn't realise he was consciously trying to sabotage Brexit.

I have heard (and it is eminently plausible) that the civil servants in the Brexit ministry are being advised to take copious notes for the inevitable public inquiry once the fiasco has occurred, and people want to know what went wrong.

ETA: The highlighted part. I think it was me that raised this. If the agreements were put in place between the UK and the non-EU countries outwith the remit of the EU, those flights could continue. However there is no such agreement for flights to the EU27. At the moment such flights would be illegal on April 1st 2019. This is one of the many problems that needs to be fixed before we leave. A competent government would have set in place a ministry of Brexit with the remit of scoping out and reporting what needed doing *before* pressing the A50 button. That is not how this government does things.
 
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ceptimus said:
You're all missing the point again.

The problems with the Y2K bug were real. There was no way of avoiding Y2K so people got on with the job and fixed the problems.

The problems with Brexit are real. Instead of getting on with it and solving the problems people are instead trying to prevent Brexit happening.
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I addressed this - we don't know what the issues are. The government can't agree even within its own circles wtf it's aiming for. How can firms and agencies predict what those issues might be. It isn't the EU that's stopping the work going ahead, it's HMG.
 
That's an excellent example of the points I'm making: remainers are wasting valuable time. While the government is tied up dealing with constant bickering from remain back benchers and delaying measures by people such as Gina Miller, it can't get on with the work that really needs to be done.

The irony is that when we're not ready in time, the remainers won't admit that it was mostly their fault that the time was wasted.
 
A remain trope is to insist that the government doesn't know what it wants - what the remainers really mean is that the government doesn't agree with what the remainers want.

It's the same with the EU saying, 'So far there has been insufficient clarity' when what they really mean is 'You must offer us a bigger bribe.'
 
ceptimus said:
A remain trope is to insist that the government doesn't know what it wants - what the remainers really mean is that the government doesn't agree with what the remainers want.

It's the same with the EU saying, 'So far there has been insufficient clarity' when what they really mean is 'You must offer us a bigger bribe.'
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What does May want, and who has she told?
 
ceptimus said:
You're all missing the point again.

The problems with the Y2K bug were real. There was no way of avoiding Y2K so people got on with the job and fixed the problems.

The problems with Brexit are real. Instead of getting on with it and solving the problems people are instead trying to prevent Brexit happening.

To listen to some people talk, there'll be no planes flying on the day after Brexit. Clearly this sort of thing is ludicrous as planes fly between EU and non-EU countries all the time. This is the sort of issue that could be resolved in days if only people got on with the job instead of trying to use the "impossibility" as an excuse to get what they want instead of what the democratic majority wants.
Click to expand...

Eh? The problem is that the ones who want to leave the EU are in charge and should be solving the problems but they are incompetent, lazy, inexperienced, cowardly and arrogant. None of them seem to have any comprehension of the scale of work *they* have decided to take on. Trying to off load the reason why they aren't solving the problems (they wanted to create) to those that already have a solution is just mind blowing!

The leave campaign won, the primary leave advocates are in charge of everything to do with leaving, no one else can solve the many problems.
 
ceptimus said:
That's an excellent example of the points I'm making: remainers are wasting valuable time. While the government is tied up dealing with constant bickering from remain back benchers and delaying measures by people such as Gina Miller, it can't get on with the work that really needs to be done.

The irony is that when we're not ready in time, the remainers won't admit that it was mostly their fault that the time was wasted.
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The only way your statements make any sense is if we label the likes of David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson as "remainers".

They are in total control of the negotiations and the plans for what to do after we leave the EU, if we are ill prepared for leaving the EU it will be their fault, no one else.
 
I could employ someone to care for my garden and then constantly interrupt her with phone calls, place trip wires across the paths, grease the handles of the spades and other garden tools, throw weed seeds on the lawns and flower beds and so on.

I could then tell her that she was in total control of caring for the garden and that if it's in a real mess that is her fault, no one else.
 
ceptimus said:
I could employ someone to care for my garden and then constantly interrupt her with phone calls, place trip wires across the paths, grease the handles of the spades and other garden tools, throw weed seeds on the lawns and flower beds and so on.

I could then tell her that she was in total control of caring for the garden and that if it's in a real mess that is her fault, no one else.
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Explain in light of your analogy how has David Davis, Liam Fox and Johnson been interrupted in their jobs?
 
ceptimus said:
A remain trope is to insist that the government doesn't know what it wants - what the remainers really mean is that the government doesn't agree with what the remainers want.

It's the same with the EU saying, 'So far there has been insufficient clarity' when what they really mean is 'You must offer us a bigger bribe.'
Click to expand...

The obvious problem with Brexit is that those who are competent to implement it wouldn't dream of doing so while those who think it's a good idea are too idiotic, incompetent or disconnected from reality to ever actually implement it.

The reality is that when the idiots are done having their fun it will be those who never thought it was a good idea in the first place who will have to pick up the pieces.
 
ceptimus said:
The irony is that when we're not ready in time, the remainers won't admit that it was mostly their fault that the time was wasted.
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It is literally impossible for us to be ready on time.

To be ready would involve many years of work and the spending of tens of billions of pounds, perhaps even hundreds of billions.

For example ceptimus, what is going to happen when we leave Euratom? We will no longer have an atomic energy regulator which means no one (apart from maybe North Korea) will be able to sell nuclear energy or nuclear medicine material to us.

As we derive about 20% of our power from nuclear power stations, how are the remainers supposed to be keeping the lights on?

It is for the government to set up a new atomic energy regulator.

That means new primary legislation to create and empower the new regulator.

The steps are:

  • The legislation needs to be passed through parliament.
  • Then a premises needs to be identified and purchased or leased.
  • Then the necessary IT need to be specified and developed.
  • Then staff (with suitable experience) need to be recruited and trained.
  • Then the regulator needs to be approved by the IAEA
  • Only then can we start buying fuel for our nukes and radiation sources for our hospitals.

There is absolutely no way this could have been done even if work had been started on the day May triggered Article 50.

And this is only one aspect of Brexit that needs to be addressed.

So question for ceptimus:

Do you think the above is incorrect?

If so, how is this incorrect?

If not, then how can you think a no deal scenario would be anything other than a catastrophe?
 
How do you think all non-EU countries get their nuclear medicine material? You think they've all spent tens of billions of pounds or more setting up a means to do that?
 
Hubert Cumberdale said:
It is literally impossible for us to be ready on time.

To be ready would involve many years of work and the spending of tens of billions of pounds, perhaps even hundreds of billions.

For example ceptimus, what is going to happen when we leave Euratom? We will no longer have an atomic energy regulator which means no one (apart from maybe North Korea) will be able to sell nuclear energy or nuclear medicine material to us.

As we derive about 20% of our power from nuclear power stations, how are the remainers supposed to be keeping the lights on?

It is for the government to set up a new atomic energy regulator.

That means new primary legislation to create and empower the new regulator.

The steps are:

  • The legislation needs to be passed through parliament.
  • Then a premises needs to be identified and purchased or leased.
  • Then the necessary IT need to be specified and developed.
  • Then staff (with suitable experience) need to be recruited and trained.
  • Then the regulator needs to be approved by the IAEA
  • Only then can we start buying fuel for our nukes and radiation sources for our hospitals.

There is absolutely no way this could have been done even if work had been started on the day May triggered Article 50.

And this is only one aspect of Brexit that needs to be addressed.

So question for ceptimus:

Do you think the above is incorrect?

If so, how is this incorrect?

If not, then how can you think a no deal scenario would be anything other than a catastrophe?
Click to expand...

I think this is the answer

Wudang said:
all these nasty factsessss will just disappear and we'll begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure.
Click to expand...

Worth it just for the "factsessss"
 
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ceptimus said:
How do you think all non-EU countries get their nuclear medicine material? You think they've all spent tens of billions of pounds or more setting up a means to do that?
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Maybe not at the cost of tens of billions of pounds but by an large yes.. other non-EU countries have largely followed that template to set up their nuclear systems and regulator.

Of course, those countries didn't have a 2 year deadline to content with. That does tend to push prices up a little.
 
Amazer said:
Maybe not at the cost of tens of billions of pounds but by an large yes.. other non-EU countries have largely followed that template to set up their nuclear systems and regulator.

Of course, those countries didn't have a 2 year deadline to content with. That does tend to push prices up a little.
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nasty factsessss that will go away if we're just positive about Brexit.
 
ceptimus said:
A remain trope is to insist that the government doesn't know what it wants - what the remainers really mean is that the government doesn't agree with what the remainers want.
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The reason there's precious little progress is that any firm decision on the part of HMG would result in immediate civil war among the Tories. By endlessly avoiding tough-but-necessary choices they delay the fateful day, up to the point where sheer inevitability leads us where it will.

Bottom line - they're all saving their own skins, trying to remain standing for their own future benefit. Leadership of a Conservative party that has a recent history of utter awfulness looks like a poor reward to me, especially if it's won by flushing your country down the toilet, ditto senior party positions under your preferred leader.
 
You are being unfair, it should be clear to everyone that it is Johnson's turn to be PM, not his fault if the EU doesn't know that.
 
Garrison said:
Mostly because you have your eyes firmly shut every time people try to show it you...
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"You said the decision to leave the EU would be a disaster - and nothing much has happened yet, so it's fine"

I do note that apart from the glaringly obvious point that we are still in the EU and the less obvious point that George Osbourne needed to rescind* austerity to avoid a recession - Ceptimus hasn't actually given any benefits for Brexit.


*Which does beg the question as to what would have happened if he'd made that decision earlier, without the headwind that the Brexit decision has led to.
 
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