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Old 7th December 2017, 12:26 PM   #1001
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
And you're surprised that the above answer would be rejected by the EU, a rule-based organisation if there ever was one?
I'm not surprised at all. I wouldn't expect the EU to behave any differently.

Let me explain, once again, that this is why I think it's a huge waste of time negotiating with them. They won't give anything in negotiation at present - it's a take-it-or-leave it attitude. Best to walk away and leave it.

In time, the EU will probably wish to reduce some tariffs when they think that's in their own interest and they can do it without encouraging other EU members to leave. If and when that happens great. Until that happens better just to accept the situation and put our efforts into negotiating trade deals with nations outside the EU.
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Old 7th December 2017, 12:30 PM   #1002
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
This ought to be true of course, but nearly every bank, energy provider, media provider, internet server provider, etc., have better deals available for newcomers than they do for their loyal customers.

I'm not saying this has any relevance to the Brexit debate, but it's an interesting truth that your post prompted me to mention.
Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Do they have even better deals for people who have stopped being customers altogether? The UK is not a "newcomer" to the EU. It is a leaver from the EU, looking to minimise the cost of departure.
Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Why are you quote mining my post when I made it quite clear that I didn't think this had any relevance to the Brexit issue?
Why did you bring it up then?

As has been pointed out, it isn't a good analogy.


The EU seems perfectly reasonable to me in this.

If you leave the armed forces without agreement you are committing an offence and may be charged and imprisoned and in earlier years, might have even been executed.

I'm not saying this has any relevance to the UK leaving the EU though.
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Old 7th December 2017, 12:32 PM   #1003
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Or take the sensible option, scrap the whole sorry mess, and stay happily EU.
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Old 7th December 2017, 12:33 PM   #1004
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I'm not surprised at all. I wouldn't expect the EU to behave any differently.

Let me explain, once again, that this is why I think it's a huge waste of time negotiating with them. They won't give anything in negotiation at present - it's a take-it-or-leave it attitude. Best to walk away and leave it.

In time, the EU will probably wish to reduce some tariffs when they think that's in their own interest and they can do it without encouraging other EU members to leave. If and when that happens great. Until that happens better just to accept the situation and put our efforts into negotiating trade deals with nations outside the EU.
Read this article

https://www.economist.com/news/brita...on-it-would-be

Quote:
Oxford Economics has modelled the effects of Brexit with no deal and says that it would lop a cumulative 2% off Britain’s GDP by the end of 2020, equivalent to some £40bn. That is far bigger than the impact on other EU countries (see chart). Before the referendum, the Treasury forecast even bigger losses of output. Such numbers are especially daunting when annual growth forecasts for the next few years have just been trimmed to as little as 1.3% by Britain’s fiscal watchdog.
Quote:
Customs would create huge problems. A new computer system is unlikely to be ready before early 2019 and could anyway not cope with a quintupling of customs declarations to 250m a year. An extra two minutes’ delay for lorries at Dover, a conservative guess, would mean long queues. Even if the British were prepared, others might not be. Tailbacks on motorways in Kent in 2015 were caused by problems in Calais, not Dover. Brexit with no deal would also necessarily impose a hard customs border in Ireland, causing much grief.
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Old 7th December 2017, 12:39 PM   #1005
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Why did you bring it up then?
For exactly the reason I already stated.

It's interesting that companies such as Netflix offer better deals to new members* than they do to existing members. There are situations here in the UK and I guess elsewhere where it pays you to switch back and forth every year between two different suppliers (e.g. Internet service providers or energy supply companies). Doing that you get a better deal than those who don't switch.

Once again, I don't think this has any relevance to the Brexit debate. I bought it up in this thread to correct the assertion of the poster who said, in this thread, "No organisation would give a better deal to non-members than to its members."

*is it right to call them members? Are you a member of Netflix or just a customer?
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Old 7th December 2017, 12:45 PM   #1006
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
For exactly the reason I already stated.

It's interesting that companies such as Netflix offer better deals to new members* than they do to existing members. There are situations here in the UK and I guess elsewhere where it pays you to switch back and forth every year between two different suppliers (e.g. Internet service providers or energy supply companies). Doing that you get a better deal than those who don't switch.

Once again, I don't think this has any relevance to the Brexit debate. I bought it up in this thread to correct the assertion of the poster who said, in this thread, "No organisation would give a better deal to non-members than to its members."

*is it right to call them members? Are you a member of Netflix or just a customer?
Do they have part-ownership of Netflix? They are just customers.

It's also irrelevant to this thread.

No club that survives will give better deals to people to leave the club.

No organisation that survives will give better deals to people to leave the organisation rather than remain in it.
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Old 7th December 2017, 12:59 PM   #1007
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Apparently with Sky if you threaten to leave, they will give a you a better deal. Is that what has been going on all the time with Brexit?
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Old 7th December 2017, 02:37 PM   #1008
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
NAFTA?
No, it was how described the relationship she wanted with the EU, when activating Article 50.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7704561.html

Quote:
What do you mean with the highlighted, and does it involve Lady Hamilton?
In Nelson's case, literally turning a blind eye to something.

Quote:
When this order was brought to Nelson's attention, he lifted his telescope up to his blind eye, saying, "I really do not see the signal,"
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Old 7th December 2017, 02:40 PM   #1009
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Originally Posted by fagin View Post
Or take the sensible option, scrap the whole sorry mess, and stay happily EU.
That may not be a great idea:

Quote:
Martin Schulz, the head of Germany’s Social Democrats, wants to push for ever-closer European integration and turn the EU into a ‘United States of Europe’ by 2025.
https://www.politico.eu/article/spds...urope-by-2025/

It appears that may be part of their price for a grand coalition with Merkel.
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Old 7th December 2017, 02:46 PM   #1010
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
No, it was how described the relationship she wanted with the EU, when activating Article 50.
Yes, I knew, it was only a (lame?) joke on the "special relationship" the UK has with the US.

Originally Posted by Aber View Post
In Nelson's case, literally turning a blind eye to something.
Thank you!
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Old 7th December 2017, 03:45 PM   #1011
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
That may not be a great idea:



https://www.politico.eu/article/spds...urope-by-2025/

It appears that may be part of their price for a grand coalition with Merkel.
There is nothing per se wrong with that. It is the US model after all.
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Old 7th December 2017, 03:58 PM   #1012
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
That may not be a great idea:



https://www.politico.eu/article/spds...urope-by-2025/

It appears that may be part of their price for a grand coalition with Merkel.
I actually have no problem with that. Doubt it could happen so quickly, but why the hell not?

Idealistically, I see no problem with a world federation, although can't see that happening for a very long time.

Seems to work fine in Star Trek. Except for the actual alien problems at times.
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Old 7th December 2017, 04:03 PM   #1013
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
It appears that may be part of their price for a grand coalition with Merkel.
Why do you think so?
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Old 7th December 2017, 04:21 PM   #1014
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
https://www.politico.eu/article/spds...urope-by-2025/

It appears that may be part of their price for a grand coalition with Merkel.
Wow. It's great to see a major European political party come out so strongly pro-European in these times full of Euro-skepticism and outright hostility.
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Old 7th December 2017, 04:24 PM   #1015
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Wow. It's great to see a major European political party come out so strongly pro-European in these times full of Euro-skepticism and outright hostility.
Freiheit und Leben kann man uns nehmen, die Ehre nicht.
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Old 7th December 2017, 06:21 PM   #1016
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Freiheit und Leben kann man uns nehmen, die Ehre nicht.
Unlike Otto Wels and his comrades, nobody is going to try to put Martin Schulz in a concentration camp over it, or are they? But yeah, it requires some courage these days to come out so pro-European.

It's a great quote, BTW, and I admit, I had to look it up. From the same speech:
"Wir grüßen die Verfolgten und Bedrängten. Wir grüßen unsere Freunde im Reich. Ihre Standhaftigkeit und Treue verdienen Bewunderung. Ihr Bekennermut ihre ungebrochene Zuversicht verbürgen eine hellere Zukunft."

Let's hope for the latter.
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Old 8th December 2017, 12:47 AM   #1017
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And a deal has been done.

Full details here:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brex...ted-kingdom_en
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Old 8th December 2017, 12:54 AM   #1018
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No hard border between Ireland and NI

No hard border between NI and the rest of the UK

And yet out of the EEA and Customs union and no free movement of people and no kowtowing to Brussels when it comes to regulations. I'd like to see how that circle is going to be squared
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Old 8th December 2017, 01:18 AM   #1019
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So, deal reached.

We will have no regulatory divergence from the EU but will also be leaving the single market and customs union.

Which makes about as much sense as a pint of cheese.....
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Old 8th December 2017, 01:38 AM   #1020
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Originally Posted by Hubert Cumberdale View Post
So, deal reached.

We will have no regulatory divergence from the EU but will also be leaving the single market and customs union.

Which makes about as much sense as a pint of cheese.....
Also, the ECJ is no longer supreme, and the UK courts will just independently base their decisions on ECJ caselaw, and defer to it ib disputes involving Europe... At least that's what it sounded like on the radio
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Old 8th December 2017, 01:41 AM   #1021
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Originally Posted by Hubert Cumberdale View Post
So, deal reached.

We will have no regulatory divergence from the EU but will also be leaving the single market and customs union.

Which makes about as much sense as a pint of cheese.....
If this bit is true, it's almost a complete reversal of the position ceptimus wanted. ceptimus wanted all of the benefits of EU membership with none of the obligations. The highlighted sounds like all of the obligations of EU membership but with none of the benefits*


* - really just for rhetorical effect, we'll have some of the benefits, just not some of the most important ones like being able to influence the regulations we will apparently have to have no divergence from, the passporting arrangements so vital for our financial services industry, the ability for UK citizens to automatically work in the EU and so on.
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Old 8th December 2017, 01:48 AM   #1022
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If this bit is true, it's almost a complete reversal of the position ceptimus wanted. ceptimus wanted all of the benefits of EU membership with none of the obligations. The highlighted sounds like all of the obligations of EU membership but with none of the benefits*


* - really just for rhetorical effect, we'll have some of the benefits, just not some of the most important ones like being able to influence the regulations we will apparently have to have no divergence from, the passporting arrangements so vital for our financial services industry, the ability for UK citizens to automatically work in the EU and so on.
Yes, we will have the worst of both worlds.

We will be a regulatory vassal of the EU, unable to negotiate separate trade deals where regulatory flexibility is necessary, we will have no say in the formation of regulatory policy, and will lose passporting and citizenship rights.

In exchange, we have to pay the EU £1,000 for every man, woman and child in the UK just to give up these rights and probably pay even more for continued access to the single market.

Its just utterly utterly totally and complete unadulterated ******* catnip bonkers ludicrous insane.

You just can't make this kind of thing up.

Why are we doing this?

How can anyone think this is a good idea?

Words fail me....
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Old 8th December 2017, 02:39 AM   #1023
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Given that Aber was talkign about "employment and benefits," I would expect that what we could see are beefing up the requirements for employers/landlords (private and social) not to employ/rent to evil furriners. I wouldn't put it past the Tories to significantly increase the associated fine, thus forcing employers/landlords to invest in more sophisticated document-checking, etc. than they can currently carry out. This would, after all, put the expense on the employers/landlords, not the "taxpayer."

Of course, all that would happen is that the black economy - including the illicit rental market - would receive a huge boost.
As an addendum, it's just occurred to me that the free movement issue may also be used as an excuse to introduce a mandatory UK ID card, and lock it in as a requirement for accessing various services (like the aborted Australia Card in the 1980s).

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Old 8th December 2017, 03:04 AM   #1024
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So everyone except the UK Government seems to be doing Brexit impact analysis:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a3713886.html
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Old 8th December 2017, 03:12 AM   #1025
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Originally Posted by Hubert Cumberdale View Post
Why are we doing this?
Apparently it's the will of (51.8% of) the people

IMO it's because we lack leaders who are unwilling to take positions which are unpopular in the short-term for the long-term good of the country. David Cameron set up the referendum because he lacked the stones and authority to tell UKIP and the Eurosceptic wing of the party to go **** themselves.

The Conservative Party and the Labour Party are embracing a position (Brexit) that the vast majority of MPs (and in the case of Labour the vast majority of voters) oppose because somehow they feel that to do anything else would imperil their chances of re-election.

It's weakness all the way down
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Old 8th December 2017, 04:08 AM   #1026
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
No hard border between Ireland and NI

No hard border between NI and the rest of the UK

And yet out of the EEA and Customs union and no free movement of people and no kowtowing to Brussels when it comes to regulations. I'd like to see how that circle is going to be squared
All of that is prefaced by 'in the absence of any other agreement'.

So, can successfully kicked down the road.

However if there is no further agreement, I can see things getting so toxic that today's text will a dead letter.
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Old 8th December 2017, 04:13 AM   #1027
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
As an addendum, it's just occurred to me that the free movement issue may also be used as an excuse to introduce a mandatory UK ID card, and lock it in as a requirement for accessing various services (like the aborted Australia Card in the 1980s).
Probably not.

A lot of the problems the UK has with EU citizens is that it doesn't have (unlike many other countries in the EU) a mandatory residence registration and ID card system. Without these it is very difficult to track down any foreigners that do not meet EU requirements for free movement.

To introduce those systems now would require that they also apply to all UK citizens. A few voters are annoyed about EU free movement; a lot more would be outraged about a mandatory ID card system.
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Old 8th December 2017, 04:13 AM   #1028
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It's a fudge, of course.

The EU were offered a big enough monetary bribe - one that they wanted to take. So they fudged the issue over the border. This is normal EU behaviour.

Now if they negotiate in good faith and end up with a tariff-free trade deal then the border won't matter - but I have little hope of that happening. It's taken months of wrangling and upping the bribe to get this far, so I can't see a fair trade deal being negotiated in the next 15 months or however long they have left.
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Old 8th December 2017, 04:20 AM   #1029
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If and when the UK offers an extra twenty billion to the EU, we'll see how bothered they really are about the Irish border issue.
Just reminding you of what I posted back on the 22nd November.
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Old 8th December 2017, 04:28 AM   #1030
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If this bit is true, it's almost a complete reversal of the position ceptimus wanted.
I wanted us to walk away from the time-wasting and expensive negotiations. It seems the closet remainers in the cabinet - Hammond, Rudd, and others, prevented that from happening - and it will be to the UK's detriment.
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Old 8th December 2017, 04:37 AM   #1031
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Probably not.

A lot of the problems the UK has with EU citizens is that it doesn't have (unlike many other countries in the EU) a mandatory residence registration and ID card system. Without these it is very difficult to track down any foreigners that do not meet EU requirements for free movement.

To introduce those systems now would require that they also apply to all UK citizens. A few voters are annoyed about EU free movement; a lot more would be outraged about a mandatory ID card system.
Which is precisely why I think this could lead to ID card introduction, and that it would apply to "everyone." Yes, those who object to free movement could well be the sort of "metric martyr" wannabes who would also object to ID cards, but might put up with them as a means to an end.

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Old 8th December 2017, 04:46 AM   #1032
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Just reminding you of what I posted back on the 22nd November.
Why would you want to remind everyone that you were wrong? The EU, on behalf of Ireland, stood by what it wanted. It's the UK government that's had to bend over backwards to give the Republic of Ireland what they wanted to get past the first stage of negotiations. I realize Brexiteers aren't big on facts or reality but that is what happened.
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Old 8th December 2017, 04:47 AM   #1033
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The problem with ID cards is that the IT system to administer them will be hugely expensive, late and buggy - and the cards and system will prove an invaluable resource for criminals carrying out ID fraud and theft.

Barely a month goes by nowadays without there being some huge leak of sensitive private information to criminal hackers. No doubt the idiots in the government (Rudd especially, who has no understanding of what encryption is) think that they can come up with some completely foolproof system that will be totally immune from any criminal activity.
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Old 8th December 2017, 04:48 AM   #1034
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Why would you want to remind everyone that you were wrong? The EU, on behalf of Ireland, stood by what it wanted. It's the UK government that's had to bend over backwards to give the Republic of Ireland what they wanted to get past the first stage of negotiations. I realize Brexiteers aren't big on facts or reality but that is what happened.
I wasn't wrong. I was just commenting on the EU's corruption. You know very well that the deal that's been reached is not one that I've ever advocated. We should have walked away. We're paying a huge sum - far too much - and remaining subservient to the ECJ and EU regulations for years to come. This is a very soft Brexit and we still have no idea what sort of trade deal, if any, we will get.

Last edited by ceptimus; 8th December 2017 at 04:55 AM.
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Old 8th December 2017, 05:03 AM   #1035
ddt
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Originally Posted by Hubert Cumberdale View Post
So, deal reached.

We will have no regulatory divergence from the EU but will also be leaving the single market and customs union.

Which makes about as much sense as a pint of cheese.....
So, if the UK government wants to change as little as, say, the allowed curvature of a banana, it has to ask Brussels for permission? That's... crooked.
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Old 8th December 2017, 05:08 AM   #1036
Amazer
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I wasn't wrong. I was just commenting on the EU's corruption. You know very well that the deal that's been reached is not one that I've ever advocated. We should have walked away. We're paying a huge sum - far too much - and remaining subservient to the ECJ and EU regulations for years to come. This is a very soft Brexit and we still have no idea what sort of trade deal, if any, we will get.
Of course you were wrong. You made that statement in connection with the EU's solidarity with Ireland. The EU has stood firmly with Ireland and are thus proven wrong.

You're correct that this deal isn't one you have been advocating. Not sure why you felt the need to make that statement since no one here claimed otherwise.
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Old 8th December 2017, 05:34 AM   #1037
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
Of course you were wrong.
Keep asserting that if it makes you happy. Perhaps you even believe that yourself. I know better but I don't think you'll ever understand.
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Old 8th December 2017, 07:22 AM   #1038
GnaGnaMan
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
So, if the UK government wants to change as little as, say, the allowed curvature of a banana, it has to ask Brussels for permission? That's... crooked.
It's much more limited than that.

In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/site...int_report.pdf
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Old 8th December 2017, 10:18 AM   #1039
Strawberry
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
It's much more limited than that.

In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/site...int_report.pdf
Yes but that covers everything apart from services. So essentially ddt is right, if the UK wants to change regulations covering the curvature of bananas they will have to ask Brussels permission.
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Old 8th December 2017, 10:37 AM   #1040
Aber
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
So, if the UK government wants to change as little as, say, the allowed curvature of a banana, it has to ask Brussels for permission?
Another clause goes far further and applies both ways:

Quote:
Both Parties have agreed the principles that the goods placed on the market under Union law before withdrawal may freely circulate on the markets of the UK and the Union with no need for product modifications or re-labelling
Arguably if the EU ever tightens regulations on products, you move your production plant to the UK, and sell into the EU what you are no longer allowed to produce there.

EDIT: The Northern Ireland clauses will entertain lawyers for years - they are an order of magnitude more complicated than the US 2nd Amendment.

Last edited by Aber; 8th December 2017 at 10:39 AM.
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