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Old 29th October 2017, 04:34 PM   #201
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No one doubts there will be a border between the republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland: in fact there is already a border.

The question is what, if any, new infrastructure is installed at the border and on which side(s) of the border. No one (except maybe Pascal Lamy and friends?) wants any infrastructure installed at the border, so it would be the height of stupidity to install such.
And having seen the performance of May and co. you think building such infrastructure being stupid is actually going to stop it happening?
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Old 30th October 2017, 12:46 AM   #202
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Can someone explain then how you can have no border while not allowing the movement of people or goods? That seems like the definition of a border to me.

It seems that the UK position relies on either a border between NI and the rUK or between Ireland and the EU. Both of which seem politically ridiculous.

Theresa could easily come out and spell out exacty what she wants but she doesnt. I think thats because she nor her cabinet have a clue exactly what they want.

It's an absolute nonsense. Anyone pro-Brexit at this point is an imbecile or a bigot.
This does seem the biggest issue.

The EU were either mischievous or foolish in insisting that a deal on the NI border was a prerequisite to negotiations, as it presumes the outcome of the deal. The UK can do whatever it wants on the border, they can have a free border on the NI side. That is not true for the republic, they will have to introduce border controls to prevent the free movement of goods from the UK into the EU. (One can see an immense boost for the Irish economy, goods imported 'tariff free' into NI, driven across the border to the republic then moved within the free market of the EU.

All the UK needs to do is what they have done, say that the border will be unchanged. The problem is now with the EU.
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Old 30th October 2017, 02:09 AM   #203
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
This does seem the biggest issue.

The EU were either mischievous or foolish in insisting that a deal on the NI border was a prerequisite to negotiations, as it presumes the outcome of the deal. The UK can do whatever it wants on the border, they can have a free border on the NI side. That is not true for the republic, they will have to introduce border controls to prevent the free movement of goods from the UK into the EU. (One can see an immense boost for the Irish economy, goods imported 'tariff free' into NI, driven across the border to the republic then moved within the free market of the EU.

All the UK needs to do is what they have done, say that the border will be unchanged. The problem is now with the EU.
You're right that the UK could chose to have an open border with Ireland but that would surely enrage those Brexit supporters who wanted to stop the hordes pouring in from the EU. With an open Ireland/NI border in the incoming (to NI) direction there'd be nothing to stop "them". A hard border between NI and the rest of the UK could go some way to mitigate that but I suspect that would go down like a lead balloon with the loyalist community.

IMO the best way for Theresa May to tackle this Gordian Knot would be for her to force Irish reunification. This would deny her access to her DUP allies but if she also granted Scotland independence, the Conservatives would have a handy majority
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Old 30th October 2017, 02:35 AM   #204
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
We will get whatever the PM and her ministers think will keep them in their jobs and stop the Tories tearing themselves apart.

That's why it's such a cock up at the moment.
Yep because there is no "compromise" position for the Tory party, any actual decisions will result in the Tory party tearing itself apart.
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Old 30th October 2017, 02:59 AM   #205
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
This does seem the biggest issue.

The EU were either mischievous or foolish in insisting that a deal on the NI border was a prerequisite to negotiations, as it presumes the outcome of the deal. The UK can do whatever it wants on the border, they can have a free border on the NI side. That is not true for the republic, they will have to introduce border controls to prevent the free movement of goods from the UK into the EU. (One can see an immense boost for the Irish economy, goods imported 'tariff free' into NI, driven across the border to the republic then moved within the free market of the EU.

All the UK needs to do is what they have done, say that the border will be unchanged. The problem is now with the EU.
That's not an option. If the UK is not in a customs union with Ireland they will be obliged, under WTO rules, to have customs checks between them on their side of the border.
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Old 30th October 2017, 03:26 AM   #206
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Originally Posted by JoeBentley View Post
English History professor CGP Grey has a good breakdown video that basically is the only way I was able to make sense of this whole thing.
A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since he made that video.

IMO the "nothing happens" option is completely off the table, both main parties are now committed to Brexit (though IMO neither is clear on what Brexit they are looking for) and the Article 50 process has been started.

Also IMO, the "maximum Brexit" is well above 50%. It appears to be the favoured option by the Conservative Party and it's also the default option if those involved in the negotiations on the UK side are utterly incompetent and/or intransigent.

I do however agree that it seems mad that such a tiny majority voting for such an ill-defined alternative to the status quo means that we're potentially heading off an economic cliff.
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Old 30th October 2017, 05:38 AM   #207
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Originally Posted by JoeBentley View Post
<snip>

Jesus Christ you couldn't get 75% of Americans to vote if the choice was between "Ice Cream for Dinner and a massage" and "Road Salt and Broken Glass for Dinner with a kick to cranberries" and the polling stations were giving away diamonds and blowjobs and they sent a car and driver around to pick you and drive you the polling station and you got to keep the car afterwards)

<snip>

Just as an aside; Given those enticements I suspect you might be able to get as many as 66% of them to go to the polls.

...

Mebbe.

...

If the car and diamonds were tax exempt.

...

And they got to choose who did the blowjob.
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Old 30th October 2017, 11:11 PM   #208
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Can't wait for the Brexit good news:

Quote:
The Bank of England believes that up to 75,000 jobs could be lost in financial services following Britain's departure from the European Union.
I understand senior figures at the Bank are using the number as a "reasonable scenario", particularly if there is no specific UK-EU financial services deal.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41803604

I realise that some think the financial services sector is too large but the more responsible way to deal with that would be to grow the rest of the economy
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Old 31st October 2017, 01:33 AM   #209
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The Bank of England is entitled to make Brexit forecasts, but so far its accuracy record has been woeful.
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Old 31st October 2017, 02:04 AM   #210
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
That's not an option. If the UK is not in a customs union with Ireland they will be obliged, under WTO rules, to have customs checks between them on their side of the border.
See the Norwegian border for how this could be streamlined.
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Old 31st October 2017, 02:08 AM   #211
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
You're right that the UK could chose to have an open border with Ireland but that would surely enrage those Brexit supporters who wanted to stop the hordes pouring in from the EU.
This is true only if the UK issued visas for all EU visitors to the UK, and insisting on checking them at the border, which I think is extraordinarily unlikely - the queues at Dover would be impressive.
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Old 31st October 2017, 02:28 AM   #212
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Watched a particularly schizoid report on BBC Breakfast this morning, with British pig farmers bigging up the "opportunities" of Brexit, whilst simultaneously decrying the continuing lack of clarity on a trade deal with the EU....
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Old 31st October 2017, 02:32 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
This is true only if the UK issued visas for all EU visitors to the UK, and insisting on checking them at the border, which I think is extraordinarily unlikely - the queues at Dover would be impressive.
One of the main arguments for Brexit was that we'd have control of our borders again. An open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland seems to go against that.

It's been a while since I've been to Dover but not that long since I used the Channel Tunnel. IIRC there were passport checks in both directions on the Channel Tunnel and I presume something similar for the ferries. OTOH if there is an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland then someone could easily go from one to the other without their bona fides being checked.

Whether visas are required or not (i.e. a visa waiver programme is in place), post-Brexit EU arrivals would, I assume, not be automatically granted indefinite leave to remain (or whatever it's called these days). That being the case then EU arrivals would have to be recorded and those who outstay their welcome, tracked down and deported. An open Ireland/Northern Ireland border would be a significant loophole.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy with a post-Brexit arrangement which allows the free movement of people - not least because it would significantly enhance the UK's chances of remaining in the EEA - but all those people who voted Brexit "because the country's full and all them Eastern Europeans is coming across here and taking our jobs" wouldn't be happy with an open border with the EU.
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Old 31st October 2017, 02:37 AM   #214
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The Bank of England is entitled to make Brexit forecasts, but so far its accuracy record has been woeful.
Brexit hasn't happened yet, or have you not noticed ?

The examples of poor forecasts you've provided so far completely ignored the u-turn he government took after the vote when it was all hands to the pumps to stave off recession. Even then, the forecast effects, increased inflation, rising cost of borrowing, decreasing inward investment, companies planning to move out of the UK are still happening.

OTOH good news has been very thin on the ground - hell the EU is even outperforming the UK in growth at the moment
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Old 31st October 2017, 04:15 AM   #215
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They made plenty of forecasts about what would happen after a vote to leave but before the leaving process was completed. Mostly wrong.

Whenever there is good news, people like you and the BBC like to prefix it with, "Despite Brexit..."
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Old 31st October 2017, 04:35 AM   #216
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
They made plenty of forecasts about what would happen after a vote to leave but before the leaving process was completed. Mostly wrong.
Prove this claimed imbalance.
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Old 31st October 2017, 04:45 AM   #217
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
See the Norwegian border for how this could be streamlined.
You mean by joining the EEA and accepting the free movement of peoples etc?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area
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Old 31st October 2017, 04:47 AM   #218
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Try this (leave supporting) Grauniad report for a start. https://www.theguardian.com/business...-admits-errors
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Old 31st October 2017, 04:53 AM   #219
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
They made plenty of forecasts about what would happen after a vote to leave but before the leaving process was completed. Mostly wrong.

Whenever there is good news, people like you and the BBC like to prefix it with, "Despite Brexit..."
Nope the BBC doesn't do that, you've just made it up.
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Old 31st October 2017, 05:00 AM   #220
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Try this (leave supporting) Grauniad report for a start. https://www.theguardian.com/business...-admits-errors
It's correct that the Bank of England incorrectly predicted a slowdown after the Brexit vote but to be fair to them, they didn't know that the Chancellor would abandon "Austerity" and announce another large tranche of quantitative easing in an (as it turns out successful) attempt to stave off a post-referendum recession.
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Old 31st October 2017, 05:20 AM   #221
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Nope the BBC doesn't do that, you've just made it up.
This blog: http://isthebbcbiased.blogspot.co.uk/ details all the instances of bias by the BBC. Note that they don't have to use the exact words, "Despite Brexit", to convey the same meaning .
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Old 31st October 2017, 05:29 AM   #222
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
This blog: http://isthebbcbiased.blogspot.co.uk/ details all the instances of bias by the BBC. Note that they don't have to use the exact words, "Despite Brexit", to convey the same meaning .
All that seems to point out is that Jacob Rees-Mogg is an idiot, which is common knowledge, and whoever writes the blog is no better.
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Old 31st October 2017, 05:38 AM   #223
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Originally Posted by fagin View Post
All that seems to point out is that Jacob Rees-Mogg is an idiot, which is common knowledge, and whoever writes the blog is no better.
I don't think you've perused much of the blog. It covers hundreds of different BBC programs and reports, going back up to five years. There are two main contributors to the blog (plus all the comments of course): Craig seems a little more Leave biassed to me compared to sue.
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Old 31st October 2017, 05:48 AM   #224
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I read some of the rambling accounts of "spot the bias" across years. Hardly high quality evidence. Here are some stats. Note it's actually critical of the BBC on a number of issues.

http://theconversation.com/hard-evid...-the-bbc-17028
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Old 31st October 2017, 02:36 PM   #225
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
I read some of the rambling accounts of "spot the bias" across years. Hardly high quality evidence. Here are some stats. Note it's actually critical of the BBC on a number of issues.

http://theconversation.com/hard-evid...-the-bbc-17028
Oh come on, you know Leave supporters don't do facts...
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Old 1st November 2017, 01:21 AM   #226
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
You mean by joining the EEA and accepting the free movement of peoples etc?
Nope, being outside the customs union, which was what was being discussed.
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Old 1st November 2017, 01:25 AM   #227
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Whether visas are required or not (i.e. a visa waiver programme is in place), post-Brexit EU arrivals would, I assume, not be automatically granted indefinite leave to remain (or whatever it's called these days). That being the case then EU arrivals would have to be recorded and those who outstay their welcome, tracked down and deported. An open Ireland/Northern Ireland border would be a significant loophole.
The likely solution is identity/security checks on ferries from Belfast, and increased spot checks on residents within Northern Ireland.

Not a perfect solution, but probably a workable one for the UK.
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Old 1st November 2017, 01:33 AM   #228
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
The likely solution is identity/security checks on ferries from Belfast, and increased spot checks on residents within Northern Ireland.

Not a perfect solution, but probably a workable one for the UK.
But not for the Unionists. British Citizens treated as second rate and needing passport and security checks before they can travel to other parts of the UK but free to travel to a foreign country?
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Old 1st November 2017, 01:36 AM   #229
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
The likely solution is identity/security checks on ferries from Belfast, and increased spot checks on residents within Northern Ireland.

Not a perfect solution, but probably a workable one for the UK.
British citizens are going to be required to carry ID to travel within the UK now? And have spot checks carried out to check they are British enough?

Workable indeed.
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Old 1st November 2017, 02:02 AM   #230
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
This blog: http://isthebbcbiased.blogspot.co.uk/ details all the instances of bias by the BBC. Note that they don't have to use the exact words, "Despite Brexit", to convey the same meaning .
If that is your evidence then my statement you made it up remains true.
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Old 1st November 2017, 02:38 AM   #231
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
But not for the Unionists. British Citizens treated as second rate and needing passport and security checks before they can travel to other parts of the UK but free to travel to a foreign country?
^ This.

Whilst the most logistically convenient ways of addressing this would either be Irish reunification or implementing a "hard" border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, politically these would be nonstarters from the unionist perspective and the Conservatives are currently heavily reliant on the support of the DUP.

I'm sure that there are a host of other factors that would need to be considered before establishing an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland including customs union status, adherence to various European laws if goods, services and livestock are to flow freely, and the movement of people and labour, but as I see it, the biggest political hurdle would be the hard border.
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Old 1st November 2017, 02:42 AM   #232
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
The likely solution is identity/security checks on ferries from Belfast, and increased spot checks on residents within Northern Ireland.

Not a perfect solution, but probably a workable one for the UK.


My post was in response to your comment about Dover, I'm not sure where Northern Ireland comes into that.

Currently AFAIK we have passport control at Dover. In the future this will have to include recording the arrival/departure of EU citizens but this already happens for non-EU citizens.

Regardless of where they are taking place, any checks would have to happen before people get on ferries unless HMG is going to indemnify the ferry companies for the cost of deporting people.
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Old 1st November 2017, 02:48 AM   #233
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post


My post was in response to your comment about Dover, I'm not sure where Northern Ireland comes into that.

Currently AFAIK we have passport control at Dover. In the future this will have to include recording the arrival/departure of EU citizens but this already happens for non-EU citizens.

Regardless of where they are taking place, any checks would have to happen before people get on ferries unless HMG is going to indemnify the ferry companies for the cost of deporting people.
That will not work either. The only reason that HMRC is allowed to have screening on french soil is because they are an EU member. Once Brexit happens, the french will have no further reason to accommodate that. They will take the simple view that they don't care since the illegals are leaving the EU. All the French have to do is wave them goodbye.
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Old 1st November 2017, 02:52 AM   #234
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Nope, being outside the customs union, which was what was being discussed.
So wait, what, we aren't leaving the customs union?

Has someone told D2 ?
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Old 1st November 2017, 03:48 AM   #235
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post


My post was in response to your comment about Dover, I'm not sure where Northern Ireland comes into that.

Currently AFAIK we have passport control at Dover. In the future this will have to include recording the arrival/departure of EU citizens but this already happens for non-EU citizens.

Regardless of where they are taking place, any checks would have to happen before people get on ferries unless HMG is going to indemnify the ferry companies for the cost of deporting people.
Why - wouldn't it be like the airlines?
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Old 1st November 2017, 03:49 AM   #236
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Originally Posted by Hubert Cumberdale View Post
So wait, what, we aren't leaving the customs union?

Has someone told D2 ?
I'm sure someone has left him a voice message or put it on a post-it-note for his attention when he's next back in the office..
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Old 1st November 2017, 04:01 AM   #237
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
If that is your evidence then my statement you made it up remains true.
I don't understand your "logic"

I present evidence - note: 'evidence' is not the same as 'proof' and you then repeat your assertion?

Critical thinking at its worst.
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Old 1st November 2017, 04:04 AM   #238
The Don
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Why - wouldn't it be like the airlines?
....who perform a check before you get on the plane IIRC.

They don't do a full immigration check but there are many stories about people being refused at check-in even though their papers are in order because the airlines are very conservative about who they'll let on board (so they don't have to bear the cost of flying them back).

It's not impossible for the ferry companies to do the same thing, indeed that's what I think they'll have, airline-style check in.
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Old 1st November 2017, 04:20 AM   #239
Hubert Cumberdale
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
....who perform a check before you get on the plane IIRC.

They don't do a full immigration check but there are many stories about people being refused at check-in even though their papers are in order because the airlines are very conservative about who they'll let on board (so they don't have to bear the cost of flying them back).

It's not impossible for the ferry companies to do the same thing, indeed that's what I think they'll have, airline-style check in.
IME the ferries (and Eurostar) have exported borders. To go from Dover to Calais, you first go through both British and French passport controls. And the same going the other way.

The difficulty is not with passport checks though.

The difficulty is with customs checks. We can't just wave through freight and cargo from the EU unless we do the same with frieght and cargo arriving from everywhere.

To do so would be a violation of WTO trading terms.
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Old 1st November 2017, 04:26 AM   #240
The Don
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Oh noes !

Brexit could lead to bacon shortages !!!111!!!!11!!11

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41804993

Abandon this foolishness now
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