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Tags statistical analysis , statistical methods , telekinesis

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Old 20th August 2018, 01:07 PM   #41
Darat
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
Why in the heck does a demonstration of telekinesis need a statistical analysis?

Show me something that moves by thoughts. Even if it's an undersea, unexplained mass sponge migration. Either something moved, or it didn't.


Goes back to the fact that this is not why people believe(d) in telekinesis in the first place, the claims were that people could levitate, move macro-scale objects e.g. balls, pencils and so on. If this effect was real there is nothing to tie it into telekinesis.
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Old 20th August 2018, 01:07 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
A number of finely balanced 'targets' in an isolated container. One is selected at random and is moved within an agreed period, the others remain untouched. Designed properly the required force could be tiny, less than that required to change the course of a ball bearing for example.


But why, the claims are not at that scale.
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Old 20th August 2018, 01:09 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Buddha
“Those gifts paid for a small staff and a gallery of random-motion machines, including a pendulum with a lighted crystal at the end; a giant, wall-mounted pachinko-like machine with a cascade of bouncing balls; and a variety of electronic boxes with digital number displays.
In one of PEAR’s standard experiments, the study participant would sit in front of an electronic box the size of a toaster oven, which flashed a random series of numbers just above and just below 100. Staff members instructed the person to simply “think high” or “think low” and watch the display. After thousands of repetitions — the equivalent of coin flips — the researchers looked for differences between the machine’s output and random chance.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/10/s...princeton.html

This article is intended for general audience.
Already debated here

Originally Posted by Buddha
Here is the link to the original article which is intended for the professionals with engineering and scientific background.

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingr...00010004-6.pdf
Ooohhh! A "CIA" article! Trying to suggest a bit of secrecy around it?

Well, it always was available to the general public. Here is a well scanned version of it.

Originally Posted by Buddha
There are several objections to this research; I am going to go over them:

1. Incorrect statistical methods were used to analyze the data.

2. The methods of analysis are correct, but the results were interpreted incorrectly

3. The results of the experiment are irreproducible.
No, you are not to invent what the objections were. If you learnt of any real objection, link them here before throwing away the grain and keeping the chaff in order to manufacture your strawmen.

If you want to deal with real objections, for instance read this and comment on its content.
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Old 20th August 2018, 01:17 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Buddha
The same applies to this telekinetic experiment, so its data and the scientists’ conclusion are valid.
As other posters commenter, where do you find this to be related to "telekinesis"?

Is this another "Buddha" moment when you say "it could be A, it could be B, but I rejected those for mnknkkmlhkl reasons ... it's C!"?
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Old 20th August 2018, 01:18 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
But why, the claims are not at that scale.
It's Telekinesis of the Gaps. Obviously, claims that people can move objects around by power of the mind alone are nonsense, but maybe telekinesis is hiding in the last vestige of statistical significance before it's swallowed up by the noise level, because a few people really, sincerely, desperately want to believe in it.

Dave
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Old 20th August 2018, 01:38 PM   #46
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Well you have to give it to the man .. he knows how to start a discussion !
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Old 20th August 2018, 01:49 PM   #47
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Finally! It just was another struggle between "Buddha" and the English language.

What "Buddha" intended in this thread is discussing the more encompassing PK (psychokinesis) also known as psychoenergetics. As Jahn explains in the above mention paper «PK (occasionally termed telekinesis, or psychoenergetics) refers to a palpable influence of consciousness on a physical or biological system. The interaction may be deliberate or spontaneous, and the energy transfer involved may range from microscopic disturbance of atomic-level processes, through macroscopic distortion or levitation of objects, up to some very drastic “poltergeist” effects. Psychic healing and man- plant interactions would be two examples of PK in biological systems.» [page 139]
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Old 20th August 2018, 01:51 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Well you have to give it to the man .. he knows how to start a discussion !
For what value of "discussion"? I'd agree if you meant it as "he knows how to have a thread going"
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Old 20th August 2018, 01:53 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
But why, the claims are not at that scale.

It’s the usual, isn’t it? Claims of effects so great as to be self-evident in anecdotal accounts, reduced to the level of statistical ‘noise’ by the use of a controlled experiment.
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Old 20th August 2018, 01:54 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
No, you are not to invent what the objections were.
But how else is he supposed to make headway in the debate if he can't script what the criticism of his claim should be? He listed three straw men and dodged two of them by saying, "No, no, that's nonsense because I'm very smart."
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Old 20th August 2018, 02:10 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
But how else is he supposed to make headway in the debate if he can't script what the criticism of his claim should be? He listed three straw men and dodged two of them by saying, "No, no, that's nonsense because I'm very smart."
In other words, a typical "Buddha" thread. I bet he will continue with tons of words but he won't find his way to provide any formula or graphic to discuss or back his "thoughts" (in spite of the ton of parchment universities have given him in the fields of engineering, computing, etc)
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Old 20th August 2018, 02:28 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
If you want to deal with real objections, for instance read this and comment on its content.
And by "comment on its content," we don't mean "dismiss it without comment with the accusation that its author doesn't know what he's talking about."

Buddha :-

Your claim is that Dr. Jeffers, among others, is wrong, and wrong because he's incompetent. That is your burden to prove, and you will need to do so by dissecting his analysis (among that of others) and showing by rigorous statistical proof why his analysis fails, or -- since you argue incompetence -- the elements of statistical analysis he's leaving out that apply to his work.

No, we won't be satisfied with chest-beating. We won't be satisfied by excuses that you're too busy or that your critics and your audience are too stupid to understand. Impress us.
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Old 20th August 2018, 02:28 PM   #53
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I would like to know "Buddha"'s analysis of this paper developed for the Air Force of the USA:
Teleportation Physics Study, by Eric W. Davis, theoretical physicist with a Ph.D. in Astrophysics.

especially the Chinese study about "gifted children" who did this:
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Old 20th August 2018, 05:40 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
But why, the claims are not at that scale.
I'm not a believer, I was just trying to give an example of how it is possible to come up with something that would detect as weak as possible but wouldn't be explainable as statistical noise. If the people who claim to be looking for it really wanted to eliminate the randomness that is.
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Old 20th August 2018, 11:56 PM   #55
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Sorry........you people really expect Buddha to return to this thread?
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Old 21st August 2018, 01:25 AM   #56
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It seems to me that in the last several years the PEAR experiment is re-appearing in sort of a re-branded shape, this time experimenters use random number generators to produce fractals and a seater tries to influence their shape:

https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/portal...1bb18f11).html

However, there is also a negative replication of the revived experiment:

https://www.scientificexploration.or...31_2_Grote.pdf

It seems to me that history repeats itself, again...
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Old 21st August 2018, 01:45 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Sorry........you people really expect Buddha to return to this thread?
No, but we're all trying to bring him back by the power of thought.

Dave
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Old 21st August 2018, 02:01 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Sorry........you people really expect Buddha to return to this thread?
He normally makes a couple of drive-by non-answers to the criticisms of his arguments before unilaterally declaring victory and starting a new cycle.
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Old 21st August 2018, 02:12 AM   #59
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If it is impossible to move things with your mind how did I type out what I am thinking?
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Old 21st August 2018, 02:13 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by Shuca View Post
It seems to me that in the last several years the PEAR experiment is re-appearing in sort of a re-branded shape, this time experimenters use random number generators to produce fractals and a seater tries to influence their shape:

https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/portal...1bb18f11).html

However, there is also a negative replication of the revived experiment:

https://www.scientificexploration.or...31_2_Grote.pdf

It seems to me that history repeats itself, again...
The Force is strong in this one!

Wonder if there are cultural reasons why it fades into and out of favour.
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Old 21st August 2018, 02:43 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
The Force is strong in this one!

Wonder if there are cultural reasons why it fades into and out of favour.
Desperation reasons. I think these are being run all the time. The proponents are convinced but feel they are just missing the secret ingredient to regularly pass tests. They make slight variations all the time. The law of averages suggests that running enough, one will show a higher "promising" result. This is the new hope until further testing shows it to be an anomaly.

I recall a buzz quite a few years ago when a study showed playing white noise "helped" people guess zener cards in a Ganzfeld test. A hope that underwent 'Death by repetition.'
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Old 21st August 2018, 02:44 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
No, but we're all trying to bring him back by the power of thought.

Dave
You're doing it wrong. You're involving reasoning.
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Old 21st August 2018, 02:48 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
You're doing it wrong. You're involving reasoning.
Being serious about this for a moment, this is the age-old dilemma we face. Do we ignore absurd claims, thus letting them go unchallenged, do we address them seriously, thus dignifying them with a response, or do we mock their laughable absurdity, thus appearing not to be serious? If you have a fourth alternative, I'd like to see it.

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Old 21st August 2018, 03:42 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
The Force is strong in this one!

Wonder if there are cultural reasons why it fades into and out of favour.
I wouldn't be surprised if it correlates with SW movies...
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Old 21st August 2018, 04:06 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if it correlates with SW movies...
I did wonder that, be interesting to know if these "tests" start say 6 to 12 months after a SW movie is released.
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Old 21st August 2018, 04:10 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Being serious about this for a moment, this is the age-old dilemma we face. Do we ignore absurd claims, thus letting them go unchallenged, do we address them seriously, thus dignifying them with a response, or do we mock their laughable absurdity, thus appearing not to be serious? If you have a fourth alternative, I'd like to see it.

Dave
There isn't one way. You may help someone by being calm and very sensible, others may be helped with humour and so on.

Back in prehistory we were forever debunking telekinesis, telepathy, ghosts and so on. It's a shame that folks with such claims are even more insular these days and just communicate with other believers.
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:04 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer
Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Sorry........you people really expect Buddha to return to this thread?
He normally makes a couple of drive-by non-answers to the criticisms of his arguments before unilaterally declaring victory and starting a new cycle.
Yes, he has to do two or three rounds replying what other posters didn't say, declaring victory and claiming he is no longer posting, everything while denouncing everyone else as ignorant, dogmatic and incorrigible. It's very important for him to start threads and to loudly abandon them, as that makes he feel as he is in control, what most probably is the opposite of his real life.

He also needs to build the "pyramid of 'Buddha' ", sort of his personal Borobudur, a hierarchy of posters with the ones he'll ignore in the base, the less he'll reply once in a patronizing way in the second level, the few he'll reply ignoring the real content of the posts he quotes in the third level, and himself at the top as self-appointed bright star.

And the pyramid will always move as a block depending on the result of the "debate": either he is a bright genius, above the "intelligent posters", above the every now and then smart ones, above the average ones, or he is a little silly and uninformed on the subject, above the confused, above those who make little sense, above the hopeless.
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:32 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by The Sparrow View Post
Why do you post this on a skeptic board when you plan ahead of time to ignore criticisms of your argument and then declare victory and move on?
To start with, I didn't declare a victory. I end my postings at a thread when my opponents run out of arguments and keep repeating the old ones. I am guilty of the same sin was posting repetitive arguments, but at some time this has to stop.
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:34 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by Porpoise of Life View Post
Telekinesis isn't real, but it would appear that JayUtah is clairvoyant:
When you do not present arguments showing why this research should be rejected, this is not a criticism but a personal opinion.
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:35 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
He's just trolling, guys ..
A spectacular argument to end a thread when there is nothing else to say. To me this sounds like a defeat.
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:40 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
And the Lord spake, saying, "First shalt thou look up the Holy Hypothesis. Then, shalt thou choose three counter-arguments. No more. No less. Three shall be the number thou shalt argue, and the number of the arguing shall be three. Four shalt thou not argue, nor either argue thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then, lobbest thou thy dismissal of thy counter-arguments towards thy foe, who, being constrained to follow the script, shall snuff it."

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Actually, there are more than three counter-arguments, I just chose the most popular ones. If you present more counter-arguments, I will respond to them. The counter-arguments do not have to be your own, you can pick them up from appropriate articles. I am waiting for your response.
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:40 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by Buddha View Post
To start with, I didn't declare a victory. I end my postings at a thread when my opponents run out of arguments and keep repeating the old ones. I am guilty of the same sin was posting repetitive arguments, but at some time this has to stop.
But, of course, this hasn't got anything to do with what arguments you've actually responded to, because you'll only ever consider a maximum of three counter-arguments, which you make up yourself in any case.

Dave
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:41 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by Buddha View Post
To start with, I didn't declare a victory.
Yes, you did, in all your other threads. And you do in this one, two posts down from this one.

Quote:
I end my postings at a thread when my opponents run out of arguments and keep repeating the old ones.
Nonsense. Your end your postings when your critics have obviously prevailed and when you've run out of excuses for ignoring them or trying to change the subject. Then you redeclare the purpose of the thread to save face.

That's why I'm asking you to confirm the purpose of this thread. Is it your purpose to prove that psychokinesis is real? Can you answer that simple question honestly?
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:42 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by Buddha View Post
A spectacular argument to end a thread when there is nothing else to say. To me this sounds like a defeat.
No, you don't get to declare victory after two pages of substantive posts that you utterly ignored. Try harder.
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:42 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by Buddha View Post
To start with, I didn't declare a victory. I end my postings at a thread when my opponents run out of arguments and keep repeating the old ones.





"I didn't declare victory; I declared victory!"
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:45 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by Buddha View Post
When you do not present arguments showing why this research should be rejected, this is not a criticism but a personal opinion.
Totally unrelated, as your usual style.

JayUtah's clairvoyance was predicting you would base this thread in PEAR.

You're the most predictable creature.
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:47 AM   #77
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[quote=Buddha;12401955]Actually, there are more than three counter-arguments, I just chose the most popular ones.[quote]

Most popular according to whom? You don't get to make up your critics' arguments.

Quote:
If you present more counter-arguments, I will respond to them.
That's already been done. And you didn't meaningfully respond even to the ones you brought up. You just declared them "nonsensical" without further comment.

Quote:
I am waiting for your response.
Dr. Jeffers' analysis is waiting for your response. Without even naming the authors of the rebuttals you dismiss, you publicly accused them all of being incompetent, so it's now time for you to put up. Dr. Jeffers is clearly more qualified in statistics than you are, and he has revealed Jahn's smoking gun, as it were. You're on the hook then to give us a thorough treatment of his errors.

Do it, and quit stalling.
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:47 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Buddha View Post
Actually, there are more than three counter-arguments, I just chose the most popular ones. If you present more counter-arguments, I will respond to them. The counter-arguments do not have to be your own, you can pick them up from appropriate articles. I am waiting for your response.


I already responded to you. Why aren't you addressing the counter-arguments I offered?
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:48 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by Hokulele View Post
Rather than pulling the argument from authority (misplaced authority at that), describe the methods that were used and explain how they are correctly used in this instance, rather than simply handwaving away the criticism.

Your statement here simply comes across as bloviating, rather than rebuttal.
These methods have been used for almost a century, they were developed in 1920s and withstood the test of time, so they are valid, at least for the mathematicians who use them. This case is no different from a mathematician's point of view.

When you say that a method was used incorrectly, it means that the results of an experiment were misinterpreted. However, the critics didn't bother how to explain that the results were misinterpreted, so the ball is in their court. I am talking about the critics whose responses I read. Of course, I haven't seen all negative responses. If you have seen any explaining how the results were misinterpreted, pleas let me know, and I will respond to their critique.
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Old 21st August 2018, 05:48 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by Buddha View Post
To start with, I didn't declare a victory. I end my postings at a thread when my opponents run out of arguments and keep repeating the old ones. I am guilty of the same sin was posting repetitive arguments, but at some time this has to stop.

so in your proof of God thread when you said this:

Originally Posted by Buddha View Post
This is my last post at this thread. I have reached my objective, now I know what I have to do to convey my ideas in a clear fashion.
What exactly did you mean? Clearly not a single change of your "ideas" occurred. You just used us to 'clarify' ideas that you had no intent of modifying.
In other words, you are utterly convinced you are right and remain so. If that isn't declaring victory (at least to yourself) I'm not sure what is.
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