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Old 17th October 2018, 09:02 AM   #1
luchog
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New Study Confirm Racists Elected Trump

A new study reveals the real reason Obama voters switched to Trump

Excerpt:
Quote:
A new study shows that this response isn’t as powerful as it may seem. The study, from three political scientists from around the country, takes a statistical look at a large sample of Obama-Trump switchers. It finds that these voters tended to score highly on measures of racial hostility and xenophobia — and were not especially likely to be suffering economically.

“White voters with racially conservative or anti-immigrant attitudes switched votes to Trump at a higher rate than those with more liberal views on these issues,” the paper’s authors write. “We find little evidence that economic dislocation and marginality were significantly related to vote switching in 2016.”

This new paper fits with a sizeable slate of studies conducted over the past 18 months or so, most of which have come to the same conclusions: There is tremendous evidence that Trump voters were motivated by racial resentment (as well as hostile sexism), and very little evidence that economic stress had anything to do with it.


This isn’t just a matter of historical interest or ideological ax-grinding. Understanding the precise way in which racism affected the 2016 election should shape how we think about the electorate in the run-up to the 2018 midterms. More broadly, it helps us understand the subtleties of America’s primordial divide over race — and why racism will continue to fracture the country politically for the foreseeable future.

Precisely what I and others have been saying all along, racism and xenophobia were key factors in Trump's election. Not jobs, not the economy, but racism and anti-immigrant sentiments. Millions of people watched and listened to Trump spew blatant, overt racism, xenophobia, and sexism for months, and decided that this was the man they wanted as leader of the free world.

Excerpt:
Quote:
The results were quite striking. First, attitudes on race and immigration were crucial distinguishing characteristics of both Trump and Clinton switchers. The more racially conservative an Obama or third party voter was, the more likely they were to switch to Trump. Similarly, the more racially liberal a Romney or third-party voter was, the more likely they were to switch to Clinton.

Second, class was largely irrelevant in switching to Trump. Keeping racial attitudes constant, white working-class voters were not more likely to switch to Trump. The white working-class voters who did switch tended to score about as highly on measures of racial conservatism and anti-immigrant attitudes as wealthier switchers.

Third, the correlations between measures of economic stress and vote switching were either weak or non-existent. There’s just little evidence supporting the “economic anxiety” or “economic populism” explanations for the Trump surge.

The article provides links to the original study, and a whole lot of supporting documentation.
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Old 17th October 2018, 09:07 AM   #2
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I can't wait to see the backlash from all of this in the next few elections. Do people not realize? Some of the crap that gets published these days to push the Trump hate agenda is truly disgusting.

I will sit back and watch this have the opposite effect of its intention.

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Old 17th October 2018, 09:40 AM   #3
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Wait, a bunch of racists voted for Obama?

That... doesn't make sense at all....
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Old 17th October 2018, 09:43 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by River View Post
I can't wait to see the backlash from all of this in the next few elections. Do people not realize? Some of the crap that gets published these days to push the Trump hate agenda is truly disgusting.

I will sit back and watch this have the opposite effect of its intention.

it is a study, collecting data.
In and of itself, it has no intention.

Campaign planers on all sides are eager consumers of such research.
Dismissing it as anti-Trump propaganda is pure anti-intellectualism.
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Old 17th October 2018, 09:47 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Wait, a bunch of racists voted for Obama?

That... doesn't make sense at all....
Well common sense would say it's wrong, right? But, sometimes common sense doesn't match reality, hence my question.
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Old 17th October 2018, 10:01 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Well common sense would say it's wrong, right? But, sometimes common sense doesn't match reality, hence my question.
I think your question was in a different thread, Blez...

Bu racist doesn't necessarily mean "neo-Nazi", nor xenophobic necessarily mean "get rid of all foreigners right now." There's a range, and there are other competing motivations. Just as when any of us make a difficult decision, we're weighing various actions or possibilities against possibly conflicting desires (i.e.-"I'd really like to get a larger salary, but that'd mean moving to management, and I don't really want to deal with the personnel/admin issues...").

Now, that says nothing on the validity of the study...I do think how the determination was made of racist or xenophobic leanings is important, for example. But I don't see anything necessarily contradictory about someone who is racist voting for Obama...if other competing priorities were judged more important.
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Old 17th October 2018, 10:06 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Wait, a bunch of racists voted for Obama?

That... doesn't make sense at all....
Not to put too fine a point on it, but you realize that we have a number of posters here who claim to have voted for Obama and then "seen the light" so to speak and realized all sorts of bad things about Obama and the Democratic agenda.

I believe you'll find, in fact, that our most noteworthy white nationalist makes that claim.

How many genuine FB posters (not from Russia at all, no really, am swearing on St. Boris) who claimed they were all for "Change" but then discovered the evil agenda so are now supporting Trumpski?

The statistical sampling is "Obama voters who switched to vote Trump/GOP". Are you saying that zero per cent of those are xenophobes, misogynists or racists?
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Old 17th October 2018, 10:29 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Wait, a bunch of racists voted for Obama?

That... doesn't make sense at all....
Perhaps they were 'Chicago Democrats'?
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Old 17th October 2018, 10:31 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Perhaps they were 'Chicago Democrats'?
yeah, but they did not vote for Trump, they voted for Hilldawg so...
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Old 17th October 2018, 10:34 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Hellbound View Post
Bu racist doesn't necessarily mean "neo-Nazi", nor xenophobic necessarily mean "get rid of all foreigners right now." There's a range, and there are other competing motivations. Just as when any of us make a difficult decision, we're weighing various actions or possibilities against possibly conflicting desires (i.e.-"I'd really like to get a larger salary, but that'd mean moving to management, and I don't really want to deal with the personnel/admin issues...").

There's also the problem of "specific" vs. "general" in racism. eg. "This specific black person is my personal acquaintance and is a decent sort of person, intelligent, hard-working, and thoughtful; but black people in general are lazy, violent, stupid brutes."

Thus from die-hard racists you can hear phrases directed to specific individuals of a particular race such as "You're not like the other X", "You're one of the good Xes", "You're a credit to your race", and so on. Still racist, but making exceptions for particular examples who they know personally, or who have achieved something admirable to the racist.

I recall much of the same sort of commentary made about Obama during his presidential campaigns.

And as the article in the OP notes, a lot of people voted for Obama to as a way to "prove" that the US is "post-racial". You can tell who they were, because they tended to trumpet this attitude after his election, "we have a black president, therefore racism is over".
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Old 17th October 2018, 10:45 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by luchog View Post
"You're a credit to your race"
That always cracks me up because the first time I heard this was in Star Wars episode I.

Quote:
I recall much of the same sort of commentary made about Obama during his presidential campaigns.
Yes, he is very educated!
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Old 17th October 2018, 11:05 AM   #12
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Whenever I see a study like this that is based on polls, I think its useful to look at the questions asked:
Quote:
Racial Attitudes

The racial attitudes scale was constructed of three items in the CCES, listed below, (!=0.68).

These items have an average inter-item correlation of 0.42 and all load highly together on a single factor (Q1: 0.61, Q2: 0.72, Q3: 0.62).

•“I am angry that racism exists” (5=strongly disagree, 4=somewhat disagree, 3=neither agree nor disagree, 3=somewhat agree, 1=strongly agree)

•“White people in the U.S. have certain advantages because of the color of their skin” (5=strongly disagree, 4=somewhat disagree, 3=neither agree nor disagree, 2=somewhat agree, 1=strongly agree)

•“Racial problems in the U.S. are rare, isolated situations.” (1=strongly disagree, 2=somewhat disagree,3=neither agree nor disagree, 4=somewhat agree, 5=strongly agree)
Quote:
Immigration Attitudes

The immigration attitudes scale was constructed of four items in the CCES, listed below (!=0.69). The items have an average inter-item correlation of 0.35 and all load together on a single factor (Q1: 0.73 , Q2: 0.66, Q3: 0.48, Q4: 0.53). Respondents were asked "What do you think the U.S. government should do about immigration? Select all that apply."

•Grant legal status to all illegal immigrants who have held jobs and paid taxes for at least 3 years, and not been convicted of any felony crimes. (0=selected, 1=not selected)

•Increase the number of border patrols on the U.S.-Mexican border (0=not selected, 1=selected)

•Grant legal status to people who were brought to the US illegally as children, but who have graduated from a U.S. high school (0=selected, 1=not selected)

•Identify and deport illegal immigrants (0=not selected, 1=selected)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/qphz9lxy6p...ublic.pdf?dl=0
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Old 17th October 2018, 11:15 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by TomB View Post
Whenever I see a study like this that is based on polls, I think its useful to look at the questions asked:



https://www.dropbox.com/s/qphz9lxy6p...ublic.pdf?dl=0
On immigration, what happens if you check all of the boxes? Are you racist or not?
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Old 17th October 2018, 11:31 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Wait, a bunch of racists voted for Obama?

That... doesn't make sense at all....
not only that but apparently hillary is black.
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Old 17th October 2018, 11:34 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by luchog View Post
A new study reveals the real reason Obama voters switched to Trump

Excerpt:



Precisely what I and others have been saying all along, racism and xenophobia were key factors in Trump's election. Not jobs, not the economy, but racism and anti-immigrant sentiments. Millions of people watched and listened to Trump spew blatant, overt racism, xenophobia, and sexism for months, and decided that this was the man they wanted as leader of the free world.

Excerpt:



The article provides links to the original study, and a whole lot of supporting documentation.
I voted for him and I'm not racist. Recalling Mr. Trump's speeches I heard nothing that would indicate that he's a racist. When some group of his supporters turned out to be a racist group he at least tried to distance himself from them.

Trump's economic policies have actually given minorities more jobs than any other recent President.
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Old 17th October 2018, 11:54 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Cainkane1 View Post
Recalling Mr. Trump's speeches I heard nothing that would indicate that he's a racist.
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Old 17th October 2018, 12:22 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Cainkane1 View Post
I voted for him and I'm not racist. Recalling Mr. Trump's speeches I heard nothing that would indicate that he's a racist.
so you recall only the bits you liked.
Read the transcripts - they have plenty of racism. And he made it super-clear that he regrets ever talking badly about the Charlottesville Jew-haters.
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Old 17th October 2018, 12:37 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
so you recall only the bits you liked.
Read the transcripts - they have plenty of racism. And he made it super-clear that he regrets ever talking badly about the Charlottesville Jew-haters.
And of course neither of you provide any actual evidence. We'll go ahead and wait here while you go round up all the examples of Trump being a racist. And to you recent grads, Jews are NOT a race, it's their religion (i.e. belief system, not DNA) . ()
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Old 17th October 2018, 12:55 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by HarryHenderson View Post
And to you recent grads, Jews are NOT a race, it's their religion (i.e. belief system, not DNA) . ()
Yeah, tell that to the Holocaust victims. How'd that explanation work out.
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Old 17th October 2018, 01:06 PM   #20
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Let me see if I understand.

The first premise is that Trump was elected by voters that voted for Obama in 2012, but "switched" to Trump in 2016.

The second premise is that these voters are commonly believed to have switched because of economic concerns.

The study purports to show that these voters actually switched because of racist concerns.

Do I have it right so far?
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Old 17th October 2018, 01:33 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
Yeah, tell that to the Holocaust victims. How'd that explanation work out.

And there are, in fact, DNA markers peculiar to hereditary Jews, particularly the Cohanim.

There have been converts, of course, but the Jews are definitely every bit as much an ethnicity as they are a religious group, particularly given the large number of atheist Jews.
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Old 17th October 2018, 01:45 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Let me see if I understand.

The first premise is that Trump was elected by voters that voted for Obama in 2012, but "switched" to Trump in 2016.

The second premise is that these voters are commonly believed to have switched because of economic concerns.

The study purports to show that these voters actually switched because of racist concerns.

Do I have it right so far?
This is where I'm confused by the study. It seems to be saying that a bunch of people who are "racially conservative" voted for a black man. Why didn't they vote for Romney if they are "racially conservative." What does "racially conservative" even mean?
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Old 17th October 2018, 05:02 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
This is where I'm confused by the study. It seems to be saying that a bunch of people who are "racially conservative" voted for a black man. Why didn't they vote for Romney if they are "racially conservative."
Here's their answer from the study itself:

Quote:
Readers may be wondering why racially conservative white voters were supporting Obama in 2012 in the first place. We suggest two explanations. First, the 2016 election was far more racialized than the 2008 or 2012 elections, sending a clearer signal of racial positions between the two candidates which might filter down to even the least politically aware citizens. Second, the 2016 election follows a longer trend of racially white conservative Democrats sorting into the Republican Party, a process that was farfrom complete in 2012 and will likely continue past 2016. We expand on these arguments in Online Appendix K.
It's clear that these researchers started with their "conclusion" and then moved on towards putting together the study.
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Old 17th October 2018, 05:28 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Wait, a bunch of racists voted for Obama?

That... doesn't make sense at all....
I voted for Trump and I voted for Obama in '08 and I'm definitely what most would call a "racist" in the sense that I'm very much racially conscious and pro-white and such.

I was not this way when I voted Obama. How much was dormant within me I cannot say.

I think a lot of us used to think that racial harmony could be achieved and some of us were even rather starry eyed and optimistic about electing Obama being a key part of that.

Then we realized "oh, wait, no... it's not harmony we're working on, we're just working on nonwhites taking over all white spaces everywhere and they also hate our guts as a bonus"

We realized we weren't bringing about equality, just a shift in who had the whip hand over who and that we were working directly against our own group's interests, safety, security and ability to go on reproducing itself and controlling its own destiny.

Plus, we realized that spaces controlled and guided by PoC are pretty much never desirable to live in with VERY few exceptions.

We also realized that all non-white groups on this planet have the following things:

1.) Enormous numbers
2.) Healthy birth rates almost without exception (and in many cases, outlandishly high birth rates)
3.) Enormous areas under their control

But somehow racial equality and them "having good lives" and "having opportunity" etc. has all come to be defined exclusively in terms of them taking over white spaces, white institutions and replacing whites in everything from political positions, positions as actors in TV and film, positions as teachers, and at every level (or at least every level with any sort of prestige) in white societies.

For Mexicans to have good lives, that has to take place in the U.S. for some reason - cannot happen in Mexico. Africans and Middle Easterners cannot be having equality or success in the vast lands of Africa and the Middle East, no... that can only happen if they're getting into Europe and taking over.

We realized this is a fool's game and we decided to stop playing. It's a takeover put in fluffy terms to get us to let our guard down.

The guard is coming back up. Get used to it.
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Old 17th October 2018, 05:45 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Wait, a bunch of racists voted for Obama?

That... doesn't make sense at all....
I'm glad you brought up the question.

In the US particularly, I've noticed a trend of a certain sort of straw racist.

"X couldn't be a racist! They had a positive interaction with a non white person at some point!"

But humans are a bit less... black and white than that. People who feel quite a lot of xenophobia and racial hostility are not necessarily snarlingly antagonistic towards all non-white people all the time in every context. You can vote for a black guy and still be scared that brown people are coming into your country. We're not living in an 80s afterschool special. Racism is often inconsistently applied, idiosyncratic and illogically formulated. Just like the rest of our messy social phenomena.
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Old 17th October 2018, 10:37 PM   #26
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Yes, there are a ton of racists who have no problem working alongside other kinds of people in practice.

And the big fallacy of course is the idea that racism necessarily means thinking all other people are inferior. No, you can be racist for hating particular groups.

In fact I think that type of racism is far more common than the white nationalist or white supremacist factions.
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Old 18th October 2018, 12:34 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
Here's their answer from the study itself:

It's clear that these researchers started with their "conclusion" and then moved on towards putting together the study.
If All In the Family had been around in 2008, the script would have probably read something like this:

Archie: I called youse all in here to let you know that I yam voting for the colored fellow, Osama.

Meathead: Obama. Really Arch? Have you finally come to your senses about all the racist nonsense you've said over the years?

Archie (snidely): No, I haven't finally come to my senses. (More seriously) It's just that McCain was held prisoner by the North Vietnamese. Who knows what commie propaganda they brainwashed him with?

In 2012:

Meathead: Arch, you're voting for Obama again? That's wonderful!

Archie: Yeah, that Romney fellow is a member of a cult where the men marry multiple women.

Meathead: But Romney was the only Republican running who hasn't... oh, never mind!

In 2016:

Meathead: I can't believe you're voting for Trump over Hillary. Why?

Archie: She worked for that colored guy from Kenya.
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Last edited by Brainster; 18th October 2018 at 12:37 AM.
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Old 18th October 2018, 12:37 AM   #28
smartcooky
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Originally Posted by Cainkane1 View Post
Recalling Mr. Trump's speeches I heard nothing that would indicate that he's a racist.
Err, what? Really?

In the June 2015 speech announcing his presidency, Trump spent much of the time targeting Mexico and the southern border. He said Mexico was "bringing their worst people" to the U.S. who were "bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists."

"They’re sending us not the right people," he said. "The U.S. has become a dumping ground for everyone else’s problems."

"Lebron (sic) James was just interviewed by the dumbest man on television, Don Lemon," Trump tweeted. "He made Lebron (sic) look smart, which isn’t easy to do. I like Mike!" (In case you didn't know, Le Bron James is black)

"Congresswoman Maxine Waters, an extraordinarily low IQ person, has become, together with Nancy Pelosi, the Face of the Democrat Party," (In case you didn't know, Maxine Walters is black)

"We have people coming into the country, or trying to come in — and we’re stopping a lot of them — but we’re taking people out of the country. You wouldn’t believe how bad these people are. These aren’t people. These are animals. And we’re taking them out of the country at a level and at a rate that’s never happened before." (he's talking about Mexicans again)

"I have had horrible rulings, I have been treated unfairly by this judge," said in June 2016 during his campaign for president. "Now this judge is of Mexican heritage, I'm building a wall."

"Why are we having all these people from ******** countries come here?" (now he's talking about the Middle East)

And you don't think any of this is racist?
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Old 18th October 2018, 01:02 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
"Lebron (sic) James was just interviewed by the dumbest man on television, Don Lemon," Trump tweeted. "He made Lebron (sic) look smart, which isn’t easy to do. I like Mike!" (In case you didn't know, Le Bron James is black)

"Congresswoman Maxine Waters, an extraordinarily low IQ person, has become, together with Nancy Pelosi, the Face of the Democrat Party," (In case you didn't know, Maxine Walters is black)

"Mika Brzezinski is dumb as a rock." (In case you didn't know, Mika Brzezinski is white)

"Stupid Mitt. He is a dumb guy. I have always said he is a dumb guy. I'm telling you he is a stupid person." (In case you didn't know, Mitt Romney is white)

“Slippery James Comey, a man who always ends up badly and out of whack (he is not smart!), will go down as the WORST FBI Director in history, by far!” (In case you didn't know, James Comey is white)

and so on...
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Old 18th October 2018, 02:58 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by HarryHenderson View Post
And of course neither of you provide any actual evidence.
Because it's like arguing with a creationist who refused to accept any fossil as transitional. You can provide evidence over and over and over and they'll keep asking for more while moving the goalposts.

Someone who says there's no evidence that Trump is racist either doesn't know anything about Trump, or is lying. So what's the point?
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Old 18th October 2018, 05:11 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by Slings and Arrows View Post
"Mika Brzezinski is dumb as a rock." (In case you didn't know, Mika Brzezinski is white)

"Stupid Mitt. He is a dumb guy. I have always said he is a dumb guy. I'm telling you he is a stupid person." (In case you didn't know, Mitt Romney is white)

“Slippery James Comey, a man who always ends up badly and out of whack (he is not smart!), will go down as the WORST FBI Director in history, by far!” (In case you didn't know, James Comey is white)

and so on...
So I guess that you are saying that Trump is a very stupid racist.

If so, then I quite agree since racists do tend to be quite stupid.
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Old 18th October 2018, 05:44 AM   #32
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Hey, wait- any body notice the study in the OP wasn't about WHITE racists? Did I miss the part about "white voters who..." ? Racism comes in all colors. I suspect the classical minorities are more racist than whites, in numbers, and just as rabid in range.

But in an election so close that the popular count went the other way, andydamn identifiable group could be credited with the win/loss. It was the Alcoholics that pushed Trump over the top? The Dentists? Da Jews?
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Old 18th October 2018, 05:48 AM   #33
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Isn't "how can people who are racist vote for that one black person?" basically just a variation on "some of my best friends are black"?
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Old 18th October 2018, 05:56 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by The Big Dog View Post
Wait, a bunch of racists voted for Obama?

That... doesn't make sense at all....
That was my thought also. (At least not racists of the white supremacist variety)
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Old 18th October 2018, 06:22 AM   #35
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A bunch of racists?

The anti-Trumpers already know all the Trump voters are racists, i'm surprised they needed to do a study.

I'm sure it had nothing to do with Hillary just being a lying criminal, putting out country music videos about herself, having a public persona, plus a different, private persona in front of corporate donors, having a slogan called Stand With Hillary, and she falls down 2 weeks before the election, nothing to do with that.
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Old 18th October 2018, 06:30 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
A bunch of racists?

The anti-Trumpers already know all the Trump voters are racists, i'm surprised they needed to do a study.

I'm sure it had nothing to do with Hillary just being a lying criminal, putting out country music videos about herself, having a public persona, plus a different, private persona in front of corporate donors, having a slogan called Stand With Hillary, and she falls down 2 weeks before the election, nothing to do with that.
Your thinking is exceedingly unary. The closer the election, the more factors that tip it. Such as Florida 2000 -- Gore may have lost due to stopping for lunch the day before.

Trump v Clinton was close. Many factors tipped it. Of course Hillary's poor performance as a candidate tipped it. Of course the hacked emails tipped it. Of course Comey tipped it. And of course racists tipped it.
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Old 18th October 2018, 06:30 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
I'm sure it had nothing to do with Hillary just being a lying criminal
She's in good company, then, given that her opponent in 2016 is a lying criminal, himself.
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Old 18th October 2018, 06:32 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
She's in good company, then, given that her opponent in 2016 is a lying criminal, himself.
Right, but, racism.
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Old 18th October 2018, 06:33 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Right, but, racism.
Not sure what your point is. There can be loads of racism behind Trump's support while still there having other causes.
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Old 18th October 2018, 06:37 AM   #40
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