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Tags donald trump , Trump administration , Trump controversies

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Old 13th February 2019, 09:34 PM   #281
BobTheCoward
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
Challenging you to put out an alternative hypothesis is not a fallacy at all. And by calling it a fallacy you reveal that you don't have one and are wasting everyone else's time again as usual.
I don't think there is sufficient data to form a hypothesis worth anything. Current hypotheses are half-baked.
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Old 13th February 2019, 10:25 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Here's the thing: it won't be.



You know why? Because a sizeable portion of Americans wanted that nightmare; some even knew exactly what would happen, but voted that way anyway; some because they thought it was the right thing to do, others in order to spite you. Those people are still there, and they'll still vote come 2020 and beyond.
And we'll still have at least two Trump justices on the Supreme Court.
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Old 13th February 2019, 10:28 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I don't think there is sufficient data to form a hypothesis worth anything. Current hypotheses are half-baked.
Now that is funny. The current hypotheses are based on people confessing in court.

The proper analogy here is somebody got caught speeding. Admitted to the cop that they were speeding. We point out that they had their foot on the accelerator and pushed it to the floor. You in turn point out that they could have done that with the car parked and it does not mean anything and we don't know that the car was really going anywhere.
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Old 13th February 2019, 10:42 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Quote:
Challenging you to put out an alternative hypothesis is not a fallacy at all. And by calling it a fallacy you reveal that you don't have one and are wasting everyone else's time again as usual.
I don't think there is sufficient data to form a hypothesis worth anything. Current hypotheses are half-baked.
No. The 'main' current hypothesis (that key members of the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians, and then lied to cover it up) is actually a pretty well formed hypothesis. And the majority of evidence (at least as known by the public at this point) supports that.

Now, any sort of alternative is pretty much half-baked, but that's expected...

Its sort of like 9/11 conspiracy theories. The official story is well known and fairly well fleshed out. Any sort of alternatives are 'half baked' because any attempt to flesh them out so that they are consistent with evidence ends up falling short.
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Old 13th February 2019, 11:10 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Looks as if Donnie is going to sign the budget...at least at this minute. He has gotten sort of an OK from President Limbaugh, but President Coulter is yet to be heard from.
An eminence grise can influence the head of a country from the shadows.

So are these folks eminences center stage? Or eminences bullhorn? Or eminences stand on the king’s throne shouting stuff?
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Old 13th February 2019, 11:31 PM   #286
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Mmm. A couple things for tonight. Looks like Whittaker's performance was... unsatisfactory enough that he's getting called back in. Link is to the letter sent to him. Anyone surprised that the Democrats are actually pushing back against the BS, unlike the Republicans did?

Next up... Kansas Representatives try to nullify gay marriage and imply LGBTQ is actually a secret society.

Sooooooo much idiocy in that. I would indeed love to see what they are calling "a daily code by which members may guide their daily lives, which makes it a denominational sect that is inseparably part of the religion of secular humanism," though. I still have yet to regret officially joining the Democrats, which I did because of their general stance related to gay people compared to the general Republican stance.
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Old 13th February 2019, 11:52 PM   #287
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LGBTQ is an anagram for Illuminati.
Take my word for it.
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Old 14th February 2019, 01:03 AM   #288
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In a normal world this might merit its own thread but in 45's administration it's just "Ho Hum Another Reprehensible Money Grubbing Slut Reveals Himself".

Tom Barrack explained today that he forgot to say that murder isn't good. That's because he was so busy explaining the day before that people just need to have a better understanding of the Saudis and the Gulf States so that we'd know that murder is probably okay.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/13/p...ggi/index.html
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Old 14th February 2019, 01:57 AM   #289
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https://twitter.com/seungminkim/stat...58277730856968

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On including back pay for federal contractors in the spending deal, Blunt tells reporters: “I’ve been told the president won’t sign that.”
https://twitter.com/BlackBelted/stat...65256620703749

Quote:
Before folks think these are all white collar pros who take vissisitudes like this into account working client-to-consultant, this applies to janitors, cafeteria workers and maintenance all of whom worked during the shutdown for fear of losing their jobs. This is a big FU to them
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Old 14th February 2019, 02:28 AM   #290
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Well... Here's yet another move by the Trump Administration that shows what liars they are when it comes to their claims to value election security. In this case, they're not just not doing the things that they should be to fix the problems at hand, they're actually reducing the protections/countermeasures that were already in place. Given the situation at hand... it wouldn't be unreasonable to call that traitorous behavior, I think.
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Old 14th February 2019, 02:31 AM   #291
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
If there's a clause in the funding package to reimburse salaried or contract employees, then it'll go through. President Coulter is laying low, probably realizing her last gambit so emasculated him that he dropped ten points in his ratings. President Limbaugh is plugging the administration line - that it's getting built one way or another, so he hasn't been critical. The only noise is from the Freedom Caucus and their White Power Hour mouthpieces on Fox, and they're not enough to sway Donnie who's kicking his little legs furiously to try to keep his head above water. He can't get onto selling the 2020 plan if he's taking flak from every angle for having refused a deal that he ordered the Congress to put together.
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It's not that liberals have become less tolerant. It's that conservatives have become more intolerable.
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Old 14th February 2019, 03:53 AM   #292
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
So you've alleged a crime which isn't a crime.
Thank you, Mr. Giuliani, but conspiracy is a crime.
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Old 14th February 2019, 04:08 AM   #293
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Someone on Quora asked "Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?" Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England wrote this magnificent response:

Quote:
A few things spring to mind.

Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.
Edited by Agatha:  Edited for rule 4. Please go to this link to read the whole thing

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Old 14th February 2019, 04:18 AM   #294
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Again, we've never had a president who lost the popular election by 2.9 million votes. The closest was George W. Bush in 2000 (Link with totals) and Trump's losing margin was five times greater! Let's be honest, he won on a total fluke. I don't see lightning striking twice.
Hey they have lots of chances to improve their disenfranchisement game, see the good work done in south carolina in the last election.
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Old 14th February 2019, 04:27 AM   #295
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Originally Posted by EvilBiker View Post
Someone on Quora asked "Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?" Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England wrote this magnificent response:
Nice.
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Old 14th February 2019, 04:28 AM   #296
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Originally Posted by EvilBiker View Post
Someone on Quora asked "Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?" Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England wrote this magnificent response:
Awesome.
Thanks for this.
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Old 14th February 2019, 05:25 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
Now that is funny. The current hypotheses are based on people confessing in court.

The proper analogy here is somebody got caught speeding. Admitted to the cop that they were speeding. We point out that they had their foot on the accelerator and pushed it to the floor. You in turn point out that they could have done that with the car parked and it does not mean anything and we don't know that the car was really going anywhere.
No one has confessed to what the half baked hypothesis alleges. Flynn appears to have remained quiet about why he lied.
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Old 14th February 2019, 05:28 AM   #298
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Leaning in to British stereotypes a little there, TBH. Still, it's mostly for comic effect, so fair enough.
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Old 14th February 2019, 06:01 AM   #299
BobTheCoward
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
No, from the looks of it, they are invoking Occam's razor.

The idea of Occam's razor is (to parahprase) the simplest solution is usually the correct one.

So, what's simpler:
- That there was collusion (based on things like Emails/texts, on the analysis by intelligence agencies, the timing of information releases) and that the lies about various meetings were just a way to cover up the collusion

- That, despite Trump Jr. claiming he "loved" the idea of doing illegal stuff, despite the fact that the intelligence agencies tracked the hacking back to Russia and the timing of data releases was beneficial to the Trump campaign, that somehow the lies and cover ups were to hide something else (which of course nobody in the Trump administration has yet admitted to.)
I'm not the competition hypothesis. My position is the null hypothesis. (I know that we are not talking statistics).
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Old 14th February 2019, 06:06 AM   #300
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Mmm. A couple things for tonight. Looks like Whittaker's performance was... unsatisfactory enough that he's getting called back in. Link is to the letter sent to him. Anyone surprised that the Democrats are actually pushing back against the BS, unlike the Republicans did?

Next up... Kansas Representatives try to nullify gay marriage and imply LGBTQ is actually a secret society.

Sooooooo much idiocy in that. I would indeed love to see what they are calling "a daily code by which members may guide their daily lives, which makes it a denominational sect that is inseparably part of the religion of secular humanism," though. I still have yet to regret officially joining the Democrats, which I did because of their general stance related to gay people compared to the general Republican stance.
I know it is silly to try to fit their “reasoning” into a logical framework, but if they are convinced that it is a religion, then shouldn’t the government give it protection under the First Amendment? I know that they are making the argument so that Christian churches can kick gays out and otherwise treat them poorly, but surely the government has to protect them from discrimination in non-religious settings.

ETA: in my mind I can clearly hear the contemp and disgust that would be in their voices every time that they say “religion of secular humanism.”
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Old 14th February 2019, 06:11 AM   #301
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
No one has confessed to what the half baked hypothesis alleges. Flynn appears to have remained quiet about why he lied.
Flynn is a cooperating witness in the ongoing investigation and his sentencing has been delayed several times. You think they are keeping him out of prison now to talk about the weather?
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Old 14th February 2019, 06:15 AM   #302
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Trump makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart.


True! Sad!
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Old 14th February 2019, 06:32 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
Flynn is a cooperating witness in the ongoing investigation and his sentencing has been delayed several times. You think they are keeping him out of prison now to talk about the weather?
I have no opinion on that. Nothing has leaked on the reason as far as I know.
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Old 14th February 2019, 06:37 AM   #304
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Here's the thing: it won't be.

You know why? Because a sizeable portion of Americans wanted that nightmare; some even knew exactly what would happen, but voted that way anyway; some because they thought it was the right thing to do, others in order to spite you. Those people are still there, and they'll still vote come 2020 and beyond.

You just have to look at that woman in Florida during the shutdown, who was disappointed that Trump was hurting her and her neighbors instead of "the people he should be hurting."

And that somewhat famous quote:
“The salient fact of American politics is that there are fifty to seventy million voters each of whom will volunteer to live, with his family, in a cardboard box under an overpass, and cook sparrows on an old curtain rod, if someone would only guarantee that the black, gay, Hispanic, liberal, whatever, in the next box over doesn’t even have a curtain rod, or a sparrow to put on it.”
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Old 14th February 2019, 06:43 AM   #305
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Originally Posted by EvilBiker View Post
Someone on Quora asked "Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?" Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England wrote this magnificent response:
Thanks I may quote some of this in a thread on another board. I actually encountered someone who believes that virtually all of the Trump Hate out there today arises from people being told by newspapers that the right thing to do is to hate Trump, people who think it is fashionable, and blind, ignorant partisans who can’t see all the amazing things that President Trump has done.

Ugh. I just realized that if someone said that here in 2019, we have a perfect example of The Emperor’s New Clothes, then she would agree and claim that the liberals are saying, “only the most clever and insightful people can see the reasons to hate Trump.”
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Old 14th February 2019, 06:44 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Trump makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart.


True! Sad!
You are quite correct.

For some time now I have noticed that ever since Nixon the various in competences of the current Republican President has somehow managed to make the prior Republican President/Presidents look better in comparison.
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Old 14th February 2019, 07:11 AM   #307
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Trump’s DHS Guts Task Forces Protecting Elections From Foreign Meddling

Quote:
Two teams of federal officials assembled to fight foreign election interference are being dramatically downsized, according to three current and former Department of Homeland Security officials. And now, those sources say they fear the department won’t prepare adequately for election threats in 2020.

“The clear assessment from the intelligence community is that 2020 is going to be the perfect storm,” said a DHS official familiar with the teams. “We know Russia is going to be engaged. Other state actors have seen the success of Russia and realize the value of disinformation operations. So it’s very curious why the task forces were demoted in the bureaucracy and the leadership has not committed resources to prepare for the 2020 election.”

The task forces, part of the Cyber Security and Infrastructure Agency (CISA), were assembled in response to Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. One focuses in part on securing election infrastructure and the other focuses on foreign influence efforts, including social media disinformation campaigns.
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Old 14th February 2019, 07:30 AM   #308
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Consider this. A group of political scientists and a co-founder of Data for Progress, wrote in a joint op-ed piece:
Quote:
Our analysis shows that while 9 percent of Obama 2012 voters went for Mr. Trump in 2016, 7 percent — that’s more than four million missing voters — stayed home. Link
That's close to 10 million votes and Trump lost the 2016 election by 2.9 million. This is something people tend to overlook, but 2.9 million is a lot of votes. There were two key states where Trump squeaked by with a majority which then rewarded him with all the state's electoral votes, it's a winner-take-all system. If Clinton had won Florida and Pennsylvania (two states Obama carried in 2012) then she'd be president. Trump won them by a 160,000 vote margin out of 15.0 million votes cast. Razor thin.

If half of the Obama voters who voted for Trump switch back to the Democratic candidate in 2020, and half of the voters who stayed home in 2016 come out and vote in 2020, Trump probably doesn't stand a chance of winning.
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Old 14th February 2019, 07:49 AM   #309
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
I know it is silly to try to fit their “reasoning” into a logical framework, but if they are convinced that it is a religion, then shouldn’t the government give it protection under the First Amendment? I know that they are making the argument so that Christian churches can kick gays out and otherwise treat them poorly, but surely the government has to protect them from discrimination in non-religious settings.

<snip>

Religious fundies have never quite gotten the hang of that "unintended consequences" thing.
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Old 14th February 2019, 07:53 AM   #310
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Consider this. A group of political scientists and a co-founder of Data for Progress, wrote in a joint op-ed piece:


That's close to 10 million votes and Trump lost the 2016 election by 2.9 million. This is something people tend to overlook, but 2.9 million is a lot of votes. There were two key states where Trump squeaked by with a majority which then rewarded him with all the state's electoral votes, it's a winner-take-all system. If Clinton had won Florida and Pennsylvania (two states Obama carried in 2012) then she'd be president. Trump won them by a 160,000 vote margin out of 15.0 million votes cast. Razor thin.

If half of the Obama voters who voted for Trump switch back to the Democratic candidate in 2020, and half of the voters who stayed home in 2016 come out and vote in 2020, Trump probably doesn't stand a chance of winning.
Which is why the GOP propaganda machine is working overtime to discredit any and all Democratic candidates already. If they can convince enough of the gullible that there's no difference so they stay home, Trump has a shot to drive the country further into the dirt.
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Old 14th February 2019, 07:54 AM   #311
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
My position is the null hypothesis.
Well, it sure holds no value...
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Old 14th February 2019, 07:59 AM   #312
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Trump makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart.


True! Sad!
And Clinton look like a model of fidelity.
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Old 14th February 2019, 08:01 AM   #313
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Good point. Bad evidence is still evidence.
It's my distinct sense you are clue-challenged as to the meaning of the word evidence. The general public, educated by TV courtroom dramas, seems to think that circumstantial evidence is invalid. Especially Trump cultists. (Not to imply you're a Trump cultist. I don't think that at all.)
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Old 14th February 2019, 08:02 AM   #314
CapelDodger
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Quote:
An eminence grise can influence the head of a country from the shadows.

So are these folks eminences center stage? Or eminences bullhorn? Or eminences stand on the king’s throne shouting stuff?
I think eminence sleaze fits the bill.
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Old 14th February 2019, 08:41 AM   #315
Armitage72
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Religious fundies have never quite gotten the hang of that "unintended consequences" thing.

Just look at what happened in several Southern states.

"We are making religious schools eligible for state vouchers."
Later ... "Muslim schools are eligible too?!? That's not what we meant!!"
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Old 14th February 2019, 08:44 AM   #316
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Wow, clear evidence of the deep state hating the GOP!
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Old 14th February 2019, 08:49 AM   #317
BobTheCoward
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
It's my distinct sense you are clue-challenged as to the meaning of the word evidence. The general public, educated by TV courtroom dramas, seems to think that circumstantial evidence is invalid. Especially Trump cultists. (Not to imply you're a Trump cultist. I don't think that at all.)
The issue is that the total of circumstantial evidence does not minimize a non-collusion explanation.
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Old 14th February 2019, 08:50 AM   #318
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
The issue is that the total of circumstantial evidence does not minimize a non-collusion explanation.
Literally every day I'm thankful that you are not in charge of actually having to make decisions that actually matter.
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Old 14th February 2019, 08:55 AM   #319
BobTheCoward
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Literally every day I'm thankful that you are not in charge of actually having to make decisions that actually matter.
A lot of things you want to happen would be seriously in trouble if you had to rely on people like me that understand how evidence works.
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Old 14th February 2019, 08:55 AM   #320
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
The issue is that the total of circumstantial evidence does not minimize a non-collusion explanation.
The only way to counter strong circumstantial evidence is to offer a plausible alternative explanation. You seem to think that just assuming there is one is good enough.
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