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Old 13th May 2019, 10:52 PM   #1841
The Don
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Is Rolfe still about? She needs to know I just voted SNP.

(I have a postal vote and sent it off today).
If this represents a defection from one of the other parties over Brexit policy then that should be somewhat worrying for that party.

If instead it represents a fundamental change in your view of Scottish independence brought on by the way in which Brexit seems to have been handled in a very Anglocentric way by the government then that's far more significant. One way of viewing the Brexit omnishambles was that it was an attempt by David Cameron to put a sticking plaster over rifts in the Conservative Party that backfired badly. If it also led to the disintegration of the UK as Scotland, possibly Northern Ireland and as a ridiculously long shot, Wales, vote for independence over the way they have been ignored by Westminster then that woujld be bitter irony indeed - attempt to save the party - end up breaking the country.
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Old 13th May 2019, 11:34 PM   #1842
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If this represents a defection from one of the other parties over Brexit policy then that should be somewhat worrying for that party.

If instead it represents a fundamental change in your view of Scottish independence brought on by the way in which Brexit seems to have been handled in a very Anglocentric way by the government then that's far more significant. One way of viewing the Brexit omnishambles was that it was an attempt by David Cameron to put a sticking plaster over rifts in the Conservative Party that backfired badly. If it also led to the disintegration of the UK as Scotland, possibly Northern Ireland and as a ridiculously long shot, Wales, vote for independence over the way they have been ignored by Westminster then that woujld be bitter irony indeed - attempt to save the party - end up breaking the country.

As has been pointed out here before. I don't think, judging from the kind of things I have seen them say, that that would bother the average ardent Brexiter in the least.
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Old 14th May 2019, 12:01 AM   #1843
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
As has been pointed out here before. I don't think, judging from the kind of things I have seen them say, that that would bother the average ardent Brexiter in the least.
Sure - I've mentioned it myself - but it's ironic given the full name of the party "Conservative and Unionist Party"
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Old 14th May 2019, 01:13 AM   #1844
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Thanks for the heads-up Jim. I'm hearing quite a bit of this going on. Well, you know what the Good Book says. There is more rejoicing in heaven over one sinner that repenteth than over ninety and nine just men that need no repentance.
I do not think of being pretty much a life long Lib Dem voter was sinful. It was a toss up between them again and SNP.

The SNP switch was due to, as The Don put it;

"...it represents a fundamental change in your view of Scottish independence brought on by the way in which Brexit seems to have been handled in a very Anglocentric way by the government then that's far more significant.."

The behaviour of Westminster has been terrible. The behaviour of the likes of Gove, Johnson, Mogg, Farage appalling. Corbyn was a hope, but he has proved to pretty much useless in front of an open goal. I thought Change UK might be a ray of hope, but polls have them miles behind and too few MPs have defected to them. Then, according to the Telegraph, they are all at it again with expenses!!!! Are they hoping no one will notice that during Brexit that claims have gone through the roof.

Meanwhile, in Scotland, there has been far more dignified debate and conduct. Ruth Davidson is the best Tory by miles. The parliament itself is far more civilised and I think, connected to the people.

A friend lives next door to a very senior MSP & minister. I was visiting last week and the MSP, in gardening clothes, came over for a chat, just being a nice neighbour. It was not at all like talking to one of the most powerful people in Scotland.

If he was an MP, there would probably be a police guard outside his mansion. But he does not live in a mansion, it is far more modest than that. It made me think of the time I worked as a police officer at a Labour Party conference. The main MPs all turned up with drivers and armed guards and ignored us. Jack McConnell, then First Minister, turned up driving himself and said hello.

I don't want to be associated with Westminster at all any more. I much prefer Holyrood. I want its normality, approachability, lack of ego, lack of ex public school/grammar school passive aggressive bullying which claims to care about the people, but really just wants to preserve and improve its own wealth.

I do not see the Lib Dems quite in the same way. I think with the likes of Charles Kennedy, Nick Clegg and Vince Cable, there has been a series of leaders and an attitude that is more for the people and less part of the Westminster pit of depravity. But their fails during the coalition government, the following collapse of the party and its inability to rise up with this big opportunity, means they are not the way out of this mess.

So, SNP and independence for Scotland, a Scotland that is within the EU.
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Old 14th May 2019, 07:56 AM   #1845
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Is Rolfe still about? She needs to know I just voted SNP.

(I have a postal vote and sent it off today).
Are you allowed to say that publicly?

Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Thanks for the heads-up Jim. I'm hearing quite a bit of this going on. Well, you know what the Good Book says. There is more rejoicing in heaven over one sinner that repenteth than over ninety and nine just men that need no repentance.
But the 99 are more useful in getting you elected.
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Old 14th May 2019, 08:16 AM   #1846
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Are you allowed to say that publicly?
You vote in secret. The secrecy is to stop anyone seeing who you voted for. You are free to publicise it if you want. You can't take photos in a polling office. That again to protect voters from others.
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Old 14th May 2019, 12:51 PM   #1847
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
You vote in secret. The secrecy is to stop anyone seeing who you voted for. You are free to publicise it if you want. You can't take photos in a polling office. That again to protect voters from others.
Also, you can't report the results of the postal ballot ahead of the vote. Not that the ordinary voter has access to that information.
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Old 14th May 2019, 12:54 PM   #1848
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Many people here have said who they have voted for. Many more have not said, but what the do and do not support policy wise gives a strong indication of who they would vote for.

I decided it was worth mentioning because it is quite a U turn on my part and it will explain why I will be making comment that contradicts what I have said in the past.
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Old 14th May 2019, 02:21 PM   #1849
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May has decided to take a punt and put the Withdrawal Agreement up for a vote in the first week of June.

This without having secured the backing of Labour, the ERG, or anyone else to ensure that there's a majority for it.
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Old 14th May 2019, 11:08 PM   #1850
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
May has decided to take a punt and put the Withdrawal Agreement up for a vote in the first week of June.

This without having secured the backing of Labour, the ERG, or anyone else to ensure that there's a majority for it.
Well, it works for uranium.

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Old 15th May 2019, 01:03 AM   #1851
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If she's representing it to Parliament then I wonder what token change there will be in it to avoid it being the same as the previous times?
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Old 15th May 2019, 01:08 AM   #1852
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I could tolerate the likes of Johnson, Gove, Farage & Rees-Mogg, when they were a noise in the background and had minor influence. But as they have risen to power and influence, society has become far more fractured and unpleasant.

They want their way and they do not care who gets hurt, or what gets damaged, in the process.
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Old 15th May 2019, 01:25 AM   #1853
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
If she's representing it to Parliament then I wonder what token change there will be in it to avoid it being the same as the previous times?
Probably none, she's just hoping that there are enough MPs worried about a no-deal to approve her deal instead. Of course as soon as the deal is done she is out the door, and Gove, Rees-Mogg, Johnson or whoever will renege on the deal in a mistaken belief that this will force the EU back to the table and give us the "unicorns and rainbows" deal that they want.

....then we will end up with no deal and no GFI
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Old 15th May 2019, 01:44 AM   #1854
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
If she's representing it to Parliament then I wonder what token change there will be in it to avoid it being the same as the previous times?
If I understand it correctly, she's presenting the entire Withdrawal Bill, so it's a wider range of measures that just happens to include ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement. Presumably that's enough to make it a different motion, though, given that the attempts to build a cross-party consensus have come to very little, the end result should be much the same.

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Old 15th May 2019, 01:55 AM   #1855
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I do not get why the expression "no deal" is being used. There is no such thing as a no deal. There has to be a deal with the EU. Even Mongolia has various deals with the EU;

https://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/m...and%20the%20EU

"In June 2015, President Elbegdorj visited the European Parliament in Strasbourg and delivered a speech at the Plenary Assembly on Mongolia's transition to democracy..."

"In 2015, 20% of Mongolian goods enter the EU market duty-free under the Generalized System of Preferences"

"The European Commission has provided a grant to the International Labour Organisation (ILO) for a 2-year pilot-project to strengthen the capacity of public administrations to meet their obligations (including reporting) under the ILO's conventions, which are considered as fundamental principles and rights at work."

According to Farage etc, that is the EU meddling in Mongolia's sovereignty, by demanding it adopt a certain political system, by placing certain barriers on trade and by demanding Mongolian workers have rights.

What "no deal" really means is "leave without any deal" and then from outside the EU, try and negotiate a deal.

But, as Mongolia proves, if the UK wants a deal with the EU, the UK will have to accept EU demands regarding trade, workers rights etc.

And, as Westminster has proved over the past 2 years, the UK has no clue as to what deal the UK wants and our negotiators are ineffective and regarded with derision by EU officials.

Utter disaster is looming, unless you are one of those who is wealthy enough to be able to survive a disaster, or you have a means to profiteer from that disaster.
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Old 15th May 2019, 02:00 AM   #1856
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What about British made products and Brexit then? I like it not.
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Old 15th May 2019, 02:09 AM   #1857
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
I do not get why the expression "no deal" is being used. There is no such thing as a no deal. There has to be a deal with the EU.
A number of prominent Brexiteers are very clear that "no-deal" is required with the EU and the UK can thrive trading with the EU under WTO terms instead.

Of course they then tend to go on and say that the UK will continue to be able to trade on the same basis as we currently enjoy for 10 years - despite the evidence to the contrary.

As you say, many of these Brexiteers are very wealthy and could stand to benefit substantially from any chaos that ensues from Brexit - not least because they have taken steps to insulate their own finances from any such chaos.
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Old 15th May 2019, 02:11 AM   #1858
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Originally Posted by Henri McPhee View Post
What about British made products and Brexit then? I like it not.
What about them ?
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Old 15th May 2019, 02:14 AM   #1859
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
But, as Mongolia proves, if the UK wants a deal with the EU, the UK will have to accept EU demands regarding trade, workers rights etc.
Farage doesn't care about a deal with the EU.,
He wants the UK to be forced into a deal with the US.
That's what the people who are paying him want.
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Old 15th May 2019, 02:23 AM   #1860
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Utter disaster is looming, unless you are one of those who is wealthy enough to be able to survive a disaster, or you have a means to profiteer from that disaster.
The 35% who support the Brexit party disagree

They think that there will be no negative repercussions from a no-deal Brexit. Personally I think they are:
  • Vastly underestimating the impact of having no-deal, even for a short period
  • Vastly underestimating how complicated getting a comprehensive trade deal with the EU will be given the broad scope of our existing relationship
  • Wholly ignorant of the benefits of being in the EU and thus what we lose as a consequence
  • Hopelessly optimistic about the UK's ability to cut a deal with the EU given the red lines they want imposed
  • Overoptimistic about the UK' ability to grow non-EU trade. Physical proximity counts for so much and Gabon is not going to replace Germany as a trading partner no matter how hard everyone tries.

....but that's just my opinion. There are a large number of very optimistic and supposedly well informed Brexiteers - so maybe I'm flat out wrong.
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Old 15th May 2019, 02:35 AM   #1861
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The 35% who support the Brexit party disagree
As George Carlin once said, think how stupid the average person is, then remember that 50% of them are even stupider than that.

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Old 15th May 2019, 02:38 AM   #1862
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
If she's representing it to Parliament then I wonder what token change there will be in it to avoid it being the same as the previous times?
That's easy, change the political decleration in some way, if possible to one that is acceptable to the EU. Options include but are not limited to:

1. Backstop applies to NI only
2. Backstop is time-limited to 200 years
3. Backstop includes single market membership for NI, but not rest of UK
4. Backstop includes single market membership for the entire UK
5. Backstop includes single market membership for the mainland UK, but not NI, they get customs union only
6. And so on, point 5 should tell you how many more tries I can generate. She can have declerations EU would decline as well, it's good enough to hold a vote.

Heck, point 2 alone may get her an infinity of tries. It's just a coutable infinity sure, but that should do until the next sitting.

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Old 15th May 2019, 03:32 AM   #1863
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
If she's representing it to Parliament then I wonder what token change there will be in it to avoid it being the same as the previous times?
I am a bit lost but is this a new session of Parliament and therefore that rule doesn't apply anymore?
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Old 15th May 2019, 03:41 AM   #1864
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I am a bit lost but is this a new session of Parliament and therefore that rule doesn't apply anymore?
My understanding is that it isn't a new session. Apart from anything else there would be a Queen's speech at the start of a new session, mapping out the government's proposed program.
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Old 15th May 2019, 03:43 AM   #1865
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They are continuing the current session. As I understand it there won't be a Queen's Speech.
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Old 15th May 2019, 04:15 AM   #1866
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
As George Carlin once said, think how stupid the average person is, then remember that 50% of them are even stupider than that.

Dave
Wisely quoting The Sage about stupid.

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Why can't it be November already and we get to relax with whatever. Uncertainly is certainly tiring.
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Old 15th May 2019, 04:58 AM   #1867
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
Why can't it be November already and we get to relax with whatever. Uncertainly is certainly tiring.
That implies things will have actually been sorted out by then, you sweet little optimist you...
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Old 15th May 2019, 05:02 AM   #1868
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
Why can't it be November already and we get to relax with whatever another article 50 extension.
FTFY.

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Old 15th May 2019, 05:27 AM   #1869
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
They are continuing the current session. As I understand it there won't be a Queen's Speech.
Didn't they continue the last session last time? I am totally confused.

The tourist info seems to think a state opening of Parliament is due in May.

https://www.visitlondon.com/things-t...-of-parliament

Christ knows!

ETA: I also noted on Twitter yesterday that apparently Parliament has not voted on ANYTHING since mid April, that there is nothing going through Parliament except for Brexit legislation and that Brexit is effectively shelved until they can agree something. So Parliament appears to have nothing to do right now.
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Old 15th May 2019, 05:44 AM   #1870
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
So Parliament appears to have nothing to do right now.
This is something Mrs Don has mentioned repeatedly over the last few months. What important parts of government are simply not being done because we're too busy being deadlocked over Brexit ?
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Old 15th May 2019, 05:49 AM   #1871
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There have been plenty of debates and a vote yesterday on health but Brexit does appear to be gumming up the works.
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Old 15th May 2019, 06:09 AM   #1872
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The 35% who support the Brexit party disagree

They think that there will be no negative repercussions from a no-deal Brexit. Personally I think they are:
  • Vastly underestimating the impact of having no-deal, even for a short period
  • Vastly underestimating how complicated getting a comprehensive trade deal with the EU will be given the broad scope of our existing relationship
  • Wholly ignorant of the benefits of being in the EU and thus what we lose as a consequence
  • Hopelessly optimistic about the UK's ability to cut a deal with the EU given the red lines they want imposed
  • Overoptimistic about the UK' ability to grow non-EU trade. Physical proximity counts for so much and Gabon is not going to replace Germany as a trading partner no matter how hard everyone tries.

....but that's just my opinion. There are a large number of very optimistic and supposedly well informed Brexiteers - so maybe I'm flat out wrong.
No, you are definitely correct. I also think that the negatives resulting from not being in the EU will start to bite quickly.

I suspect one of the first headlines will be the time taken to get through airports and that will be presented as if it is the EU getting petty revenge. It will take longer for it to sink in to the Brexiters that fast track at airports within the EU was a benefit of being in the EU.
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Old 15th May 2019, 06:15 AM   #1873
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by ohms View Post
There have been plenty of debates and a vote yesterday on health but Brexit does appear to be gumming up the works.
I just clicked that link and got the message that 'A majority of MPs voted NO on Health'.

They are opposed to health now!
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Old 15th May 2019, 10:42 AM   #1874
dudalb
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
As George Carlin once said, think how stupid the average person is, then remember that 50% of them are even stupider than that.

Dave
Which, if true, sort of makes Democracy an exercise in futility, doesn't it?
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Old 15th May 2019, 10:54 AM   #1875
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The 35% who support the Brexit party disagree

They think that there will be no negative repercussions from a no-deal Brexit. Personally I think they are:
  • Vastly underestimating the impact of having no-deal, even for a short period
  • Vastly underestimating how complicated getting a comprehensive trade deal with the EU will be given the broad scope of our existing relationship
  • Wholly ignorant of the benefits of being in the EU and thus what we lose as a consequence
  • Hopelessly optimistic about the UK's ability to cut a deal with the EU given the red lines they want imposed
  • Overoptimistic about the UK' ability to grow non-EU trade. Physical proximity counts for so much and Gabon is not going to replace Germany as a trading partner no matter how hard everyone tries.

....but that's just my opinion. There are a large number of very optimistic and supposedly well informed Brexiteers - so maybe I'm flat out wrong.
I've been rattling cages on Quora all week, and some people are literally referring back to how big an Empire we used to have as some sort of proof than we can prosper outside the EU. I guess they don't realise that we no longer have the monopoly on the Gatling gun (metaphorically speaking)....
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Old 15th May 2019, 10:59 AM   #1876
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
No, you are definitely correct. I also think that the negatives resulting from not being in the EU will start to bite quickly.

I suspect one of the first headlines will be the time taken to get through airports and that will be presented as if it is the EU getting petty revenge. It will take longer for it to sink in to the Brexiters that fast track at airports within the EU was a benefit of being in the EU.
Leave supporters will never accept that any negatives are down to their own actions, it will always be the EU "punishing" us, or someone else screwing them over for some other unconnected reason.

Last edited by Information Analyst; 15th May 2019 at 11:10 AM.
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Old 15th May 2019, 11:02 AM   #1877
Nessie
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Leaver supporters will never accept that any negatives are down to their actions, it will always be the EU "punishing" us, or someone else screwing them over.
Maybe they will understand the analogy of leaving the golf or cricket club. If you do that, they are not punishing you by no longer letting you play golf or cricket, unless you pay more per round or game and accept no access to many facilities.
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Old 15th May 2019, 12:37 PM   #1878
KDLarsen
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Didn't they continue the last session last time? I am totally confused.

The tourist info seems to think a state opening of Parliament is due in May.

https://www.visitlondon.com/things-t...-of-parliament

Christ knows!

ETA: I also noted on Twitter yesterday that apparently Parliament has not voted on ANYTHING since mid April, that there is nothing going through Parliament except for Brexit legislation and that Brexit is effectively shelved until they can agree something. So Parliament appears to have nothing to do right now.
After the GE in 2017 It was announced that the session of Parliament would last two years, in order to allow all the brexit legislation to be passed.

The problem for May is that the confidence & supply agreement reached with the DUP only lasts for the first session, and would have to be renogiated prior to the next session. And given that the DUP isn't exactly happy with May and her Withdrawal Agreement, I can easily imagine that their demands for continued support would only increase.
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Old 15th May 2019, 02:09 PM   #1879
Hlafordlaes
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Maybe they will understand the analogy of leaving the golf or cricket club. If you do that, they are not punishing you by no longer letting you play golf or cricket, unless you pay more per round or game and accept no access to many facilities.
Indeed! Surely the monocled class will agree, as will the aspirants thereto!
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Old 15th May 2019, 09:41 PM   #1880
Hellbound
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which, if true, sort of makes Democracy an exercise in futility, doesn't it?
Reminds me of an interesting thought experiment.

Take an issue that the population is pretty divided on, close to 50/50.

Now, take the 100 most intelligent people you have and let them vote on the same issue. You get one of two results:

1. The intelligent people vote a majority to one side of the issue.

OR

2. The intelligent people are also divided 50/50

In case 1, democracy nullifies the impact of intelligence.

In case 2, intelligence is irrelevant to good policy.

Neither result is particularly heartening
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