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#1 | ||
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 76,990
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2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker - Part II
Does it worry you he's thrown his hat in? Are you trying to influence me to lose respect for him? It's a given he won't be your candidate.
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That new avatar is cuteness overload. Restore checks and balances no matter your party affiliation. |
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#2 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 17,162
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I'm not going to play the game of trying to influence you one way or the other. For one thing, we just saw in 2016 that the candidate some may feel is the weakest on the other side could have surprising strength. Probably my preferred Democrat is Joe Biden; he seems to have the least downside risk to me. The negative (from my standpoint) is that he seems more likely to get elected than (say) Warren or Sanders; the positive (again from my standpoint) is that he's less likely to screw things up big time.
I'm not particularly worried about Steyer. I could be wrong there; I was certainly wrong about Trump in 2015 and 2016, whom I similarly dismissed. But looking at it strictly from the horse race side, it does seem like his entry is a shot directly across Warren's bow (to mix a few metaphors), and again, strictly from the horse race side the timing seems a big odd. |
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#3 | ||
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 88,436
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I wish I knew how to quit you |
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#4 |
Rotten to the Core
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 19,797
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Just in time for the upcoming great merge
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All You Need Is Love. |
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#5 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 17,162
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Nate Silver puts the candidates into tiers (and sub-tiers).
Basically he has Biden and Harris in the top tier, followed closely by Warren. The next tier is Bernie over Mayor Pete. The list goes deeper but the way things are shaking out, the others seem to be stillborn. Note this:
Quote:
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#6 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 21,125
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Assuming no major political shakeups, it's gonna wind up being a Biden/Harris Primary. The question as to how long the other candidates will take to drop out is hard to answer from this vantage point.
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- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset - "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal - "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC |
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#7 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 86,962
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If Sanders isn't going to be close to the top, I hope he drops out faster than last time.
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#8 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 21,125
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- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset - "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal - "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC |
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#9 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 23,259
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#10 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 3,338
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#11 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 17,162
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My new blog: Recent Reads. 1960s Comic Book Nostalgia Visit the Screw Loose Change blog. |
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#12 |
Crazy Little Green Dragon
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 5,614
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Request - Add a link to this thread at the end of Part 1.
Anyways, looks like Warren has a plan for Immigration up, finally. |
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#13 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 86,962
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#14 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 10,255
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“Impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”-Sen. Lindsey Graham |
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#15 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 39,580
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#16 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,704
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When it's a small field to begin with, I'd agree.
When it's a clown car, you actually want to sit on the edges early. Everyone gets their push, and then they get their intense media scrutiny and flame out when a skeleton falls out of the closet. Somewhere near the end, with a pile of 2nd and 3rd place delegate allocations, you start the backroom negotiations. Even if it doesn't get you the nomination, you get to hand them a list of 3 cabinet positions you'll accept in exchange for releasing your delegates. (Not endorsing any of this, but this is how crass careerists see it) |
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#17 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,704
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#18 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 39,580
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Well, "ORANGE MAN BAD" is a pretty constant refrain around here.
But it doesn't seem too much to ask, that in a thread about Democratic candidates, people find something more substantive to say about a Democratic candidate's platform. The way TGZ puts it, Warren doesn't have an immigration plan so much as she has yet another Two Minutes Hate. Who knows? If Warren actually has a sensible immigration plan, she might be worth voting for. But TGZ's immediate spiral into senseless rage suggests she doesn't. |
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#19 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 17,958
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#20 |
Crazy Little Green Dragon
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 5,614
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Only because "Orange Man actually IS bad, objectively speaking."
If that's your twisted takeaway from what he said, rather than dealing with it as it pretty obviously was, your opinion can be safely ignored on that topic. Feel free to actually look at it! Senseless rage? Poking at the President and the Republican Party's brazen, consistent, and constant lies about what Democrats actually say and do is senseless rage, now? |
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So sayeth the crazy little dragon. |
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#21 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 39,580
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These are good questions.
That part of Warren's plan doesn't make sense logically, unless we assume that the detention centers themselves are cruelty. The idea of private citizens profiting from government detention centers is interesting, but obviously problematic. It does raise an interesting question, though: What if immigrant detention were outsourced to non-profits? What if some progressive group, that takes immigration and border control seriously, but also has sincere humanitarian concerns about the people being detained, were to establish a non-profit NGO for operating immigration detention centers? Could that work? Presumably, such a non-profit would have higher costs, since they would not be inclined to cut corners on quality of life of the inmates. On the other hand, they might still be able to charge less because they wouldn't need to show a profit to investors. It would be interesting to see what kinds of standards and guidelines such an organization would develop, for guaranteeing that their inmates were effectively detained, and enjoyed a reasonable quality of life while being detained. |
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#22 |
Crazy Little Green Dragon
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 5,614
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There's a number of reasons to end private prisons.
You say that as if it's actually that easy to change or that there's particularly good reason to support that route. Not in a relevant sense to the line of thought in play. Also, getting from the previous question to this one requires a strange contortion of logic. |
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#23 |
Crazy Little Green Dragon
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 5,614
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Addressed in the section right before it, if one's actually paying attention.
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ETA: And the section after, really, for good measure.
Quote:
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It would be better than the current system, but still pointlessly wasteful when there are distinctly better options at hand. |
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#24 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 17,958
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#25 |
Crazy Little Green Dragon
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 5,614
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You are aware, of course, of some of the fundamental issues with for profit businesses, in general, quietly reducing services to increase profits, right? Again, though, this entire line of questioning is somewhat wrong-headed, as I touched on further in the reply I had just made to theprestige. The private prisons part is part of a larger answer and singling it out as if it's not is to take it out of context.
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So sayeth the crazy little dragon. |
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#26 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 17,958
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#27 |
Crazy Little Green Dragon
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 5,614
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So sayeth the crazy little dragon. |
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#28 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 17,958
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#29 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,704
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While not specifically about the Presidential candidates, the party unity issue seems to be slipping beyond hope...
Yesterday William Lacy Clay went on Fox News and gave their audience a nice Jerry Springer show: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dem...3NbT6O_WUZ_P3s
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...argeting-black
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Infighting is properly conducted by going to opposition inside-the-beltway press, I guess. Yeah, I get they don't want a circular firing squad (they might be in harm's way, then). They just want progressives to line up against the wall, please. Now Trump is jumping on board the "disrespectful to Pelosi" narrative. Great, the party apparatus now has the same messaging as the President. |
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#30 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 10,255
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Under Obama, a study found that private detention facilities were less safe, less humane, more dangerous to personell and inmates, more expensive and had higher rates of recidivism than state operated ones.
As a result, Obama stopped the use of private prisons for Federal offenses. Trump reversed that as one of his first acts. Warren is just applying the lessons learned: private detention facilities are objectively worse on every parameter. Until they can provide comparative service at competitive prices, they shouldn't get the job. Simple as that. |
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“Impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”-Sen. Lindsey Graham |
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#31 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2010
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#32 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 10,255
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__________________
“Impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”-Sen. Lindsey Graham |
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#33 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2010
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#34 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 21,125
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__________________
- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset - "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal - "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC |
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#35 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 10,255
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__________________
“Impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”-Sen. Lindsey Graham |
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#36 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 17,958
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#37 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North American prairie
Posts: 1,636
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serious note: register to vote
Trump got 46%, Hillary got 48% and Jill Stein got some It would not have been that way if Democrats had remembered to SHOW UP! even 45% Trump and 49% Hillary would have avoided all this! Forget Sanders if he does not get the nomination! Vote Sleepy Joe! |
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#38 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 76,990
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__________________
That new avatar is cuteness overload. Restore checks and balances no matter your party affiliation. |
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#39 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 46,150
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I am worried that members of the Bernie cult will sit this one out if Sanders does not get the nomination...which seems a probable outcome at this point.
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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#40 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 23,259
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They didn't to any great degree last time, and that was in the face of being ripped off. This time in, I'd say they will suck it in and vote anyway, because he'll lose on his merits to a better candidate. (unless it's Biden, in which case, it wouldn't matter who they vote for)
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