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Old 7th August 2019, 12:03 PM   #321
ceptimus
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You're missing the point. The backstop means that the UK can't negotiate ANY trade deal with ANY other country. That is clearly unacceptable.

The EU have been told over and over again that keeping to the GFA does not necessitate the onerous backstop - but it doesn't suit their negotiating position to accept that, so they just keep saying, 'Non.'
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Old 7th August 2019, 12:17 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
I'm rather interested in whether the backstop objection is made in good faith. I have serious doubts.
Hanlon’s razor applies. “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” IMO they are just oblivious and don’t understand what leaving the EU actually entails. They are used to the way trade works with the EU, and they think that’s normal. They forget that it’s the common market and customs area are why it works that way, so it doesn’t quite register that if they leave things won’t work that way anymore. It’s a little like anti-vaxers that think because they no longer see the diseases vaccinations prevent, we can just stop the vaccinations.
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Old 7th August 2019, 12:20 PM   #323
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You're missing the point. The backstop means that the UK can't negotiate ANY trade deal with ANY other country. That is clearly unacceptable.

The EU have been told over and over again that keeping to the GFA does not necessitate the onerous backstop - but it doesn't suit their negotiating position to accept that, so they just keep saying, 'Non.'
I think I see where your confusion lies. It was the UK that demanded that the backstop should apply to the whole of the UK. Accepting that represented a serious concession by the EU.
It would certainly not be a problem for the EU if the UK dropped that demand. But that is an internal UK matter.
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Old 7th August 2019, 12:33 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
I think I see where your confusion lies. It was the UK that demanded that the backstop should apply to the whole of the UK. Accepting that represented a serious concession by the EU.
It would certainly not be a problem for the EU if the UK dropped that demand. But that is an internal UK matter.
Yeah the EU offer us the choice of annexing part of our country, or being bound by their trade rules in perpetuity (potentially). Not much of choice is it? Who would have thought leaving a club would be so hard?

Luckily there is another option - just leave. That's what our current government is intent on doing.
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Old 7th August 2019, 12:38 PM   #325
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
No, the EU did not demand that. The EU only demands that the UK keep the committments it made in the GFA. Nothing more.
All the GFA says about the border is it should be demilitarised. The current backstop the EU insists on has nothing to do with what the GFA says. The border currently has different taxes on each side one cannot freely move goods across the border.

Now the reason for the backstop may be well meaning, the concern that paramilitaries will find that the perfectly legal and normal custom and passport inspections (as occurs within the EU when you move in and out of the Schengen area), an excuse for violence. But it is not required by the GFA.

To be clear whether the backstop applies to part or whole of the UK (one might conceive Scotland choosing to opt in to the backstop), what it means is that in perpetuity the UK government surrenders authority to make laws to the EU and judgement to the ECJ. A complete abrogation of democracy. No country would willingly do this. If we look at the arguments for independence in Scotland or Catalonia areas with full democratic participation in the greater political body how much greater will be the demand when there is no democratic participation or representation. What happens if the ECJ rules that Pounds Sterling or mph are a barrier to free movement of goods then in whole or part the UK has to give up its currency and speed limits. What happens if Ireland joins the Schengen area, then the UK in whole or part has to do so. That an internal border would need to be introduced in the way within a nation is something that only occurs in martial law situations or in totalitarian states. Yet this is what the EU proposes to become. Whilst it may be thought just deserts for the UK to become effectively a colony of the New Roman Empire again after 2000 years, what it is is a route to anti EU insurrection.

Now before you all pile into me. I am an EU enthusiast, pointing out the obsession with sticking with the backstop is antidemocratic and likely to precipitate the very thing it is intended to avoid does not mean one is pro-Brexit.
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Old 7th August 2019, 12:41 PM   #326
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Yeah the EU offer us the choice of annexing part of our country, or being bound by their trade rules in perpetuity (potentially). Not much of choice is it? Who would have thought leaving a club would be so hard?

Luckily there is another option - just leave. That's what our current government is intent on doing.
All we need to do is negotiate a trade deal and the backstop goes away.
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Old 7th August 2019, 12:47 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Yeah the EU offer us the choice of annexing part of our country, or being bound by their trade rules in perpetuity (potentially). Not much of choice is it? Who would have thought leaving a club would be so hard?

Luckily there is another option - just leave. That's what our current government is intent on doing.
Leaving a club is easy.

Leaving a club and retaining most or all of the benefits of membership is the hard part.....
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Old 7th August 2019, 12:48 PM   #328
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
All we need to do is negotiate a trade deal and the backstop goes away.
And, of course, negotiating the trade deal means getting the EU's approval of it. What if they prefer to just string us along, not agree the trade deal, and keep us in the backstop? What then is the exit mechanism? There doesn't seem to be one, short of declaring war.
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Old 7th August 2019, 12:49 PM   #329
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Leaving a club is easy.

Leaving a club and retaining most or all of the benefits of membership is the hard part.....
Exactly. And that is why the current government is committed to just leaving on Halloween - whether or not the EU wish to grant us any benefits after we leave. We can and should leave by the easy route. It's what I've advocated from the start - just walk away.

Last edited by ceptimus; 7th August 2019 at 12:51 PM.
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Old 7th August 2019, 12:53 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
All the GFA says about the border is it should be demilitarised. The current backstop the EU insists on has nothing to do with what the GFA says. The border currently has different taxes on each side one cannot freely move goods across the border.
Actually, there's a lot of coordination of VAT collection in the EU.
Leaving that is not really compatible with the committment to an all-island economy made in the GFA.

Quote:
To be clear whether the backstop applies to part or whole of the UK (one might conceive Scotland choosing to opt in to the backstop), what it means is that in perpetuity the UK government surrenders authority to make laws to the EU and judgement to the ECJ.
That is what the UK government at the time wanted. It is certainly not a demand by the EU.

Quote:
Now before you all pile into me. I am an EU enthusiast,[...]
You may be an EU enthusiast but you have swallowed a lot of lies.
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Old 7th August 2019, 12:55 PM   #331
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
And, of course, negotiating the trade deal means getting the EU's approval of it. What if they prefer to just string us along, not agree the trade deal, and keep us in the backstop? What then is the exit mechanism? There doesn't seem to be one, short of declaring war.
Don't be hysterical. The UK does not have to declare war to break the GFA now, it does not have to declare war to violate the backstop, should it ever want to.
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Old 7th August 2019, 01:01 PM   #332
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The UK is assuming that the French preparations will ease a no-deal Brexit:

Quote:
The government is assuming that French preparations for customs and regulatory checks have markedly decreased the anticipated trade disruption from a no-deal Brexit, the BBC has learned.

"Reasonable worst case scenarios" still anticipate long disruption to about half the freight crossing the Channel.

But the assumption, the basis for a lot of the government's no-deal planning, has been upgraded twice recently,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49270872

IOW, as usual Brexiteers expect everyone else to to their heavy lifting
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Old 7th August 2019, 01:03 PM   #333
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post

The EU have been told over and over again that keeping to the GFA does not necessitate the onerous backstop - but it doesn't suit their negotiating position to accept that, so they just keep saying, 'Non.'
It’s not the GFA that requires the backstop it’s Brexit. If the UK isn’t in the EU there needs to be a border with customs and immigration checks. This is how international travel works in the absence of a common trade, customs and travel area like the one in the EU. It’s an international norm, it’s how countries and borders work unless you are a failed state or part of a larger economic union like the EU.

Brexit means having borders and having to enforce them. Get used to it.
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Old 7th August 2019, 01:05 PM   #334
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
It’s not the GFA that requires the backstop it’s Brexit. If the UK isn’t in the EU there needs to be a border with customs and immigration checks. This is how international travel works in the absence of a common trade, customs and travel area like the one in the EU. It’s an international norm, it’s how countries and borders work unless you are a failed state or part of a larger economic union like the EU.

Brexit means having borders and having to enforce them. Get used to it.
This.

Wanting to be able to not follow EU rules and still not have any sort of border control is basically "We want you to agree to let us smuggle whatever we want into your countries."

The EU isn't the ones being unreasonable.
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Old 7th August 2019, 01:22 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
So what would be a sensible plan should agreement not be negotiated in time?
Obviously the EU should give whatever group is running the UK on that day whatever they want. Simples....
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Old 7th August 2019, 01:23 PM   #336
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Is there any good reason to think that the UK parliament would accept the WA without the backstop? Something like a resolution?
Oh he'll no. It's all just a smokescreen by the Brexiteers. If it wasn't the backstop they'd find something else to whine about the EU oppressing them over.
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Old 7th August 2019, 02:12 PM   #337
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You're missing the point. The backstop means that the UK can't negotiate ANY trade deal with ANY other country. That is clearly unacceptable.

The EU have been told over and over again that keeping to the GFA does not necessitate the onerous backstop - but it doesn't suit their negotiating position to accept that, so they just keep saying, 'Non.'

I'm curious. What is this alternative to the backstop?
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Old 7th August 2019, 02:36 PM   #338
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Because the EU insist that their rules mean they can't even talk to us about trade until after we've left. It's one of their most effective red lines.

May did negotiate a transition period, or whatever you want to call it - which is what I'm suggesting. But the EU only agreed it providing the ludicrous anti-democratic backstop was also included - which is why the current 'deal' (treaty really) has failed to pass the house of commons.
We need EU permission to come up with a proposal? Wow.
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Old 7th August 2019, 02:47 PM   #339
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Nice to see Johnson has things under control :

"One Conservative insider said that Cummings had in effect demanded control over Johnson’s operation as his price for entering government and proceeded to sideline more moderate advisers, such as ex-City Hall stalwart Sir Eddie Lister, while installing a team of “true believers” in hard Brexit largely from the former Vote Leave campaign.

The source described Cummings’ grip over No 10 as a “reign of terror”, with advisers petrified about keeping their jobs and being told they are expected to be working flat out to deliver Brexit come what may by the 31 October deadline."
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Old 7th August 2019, 03:00 PM   #340
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Nice to see Johnson has things under control :

"One Conservative insider said that Cummings had in effect demanded control over Johnson’s operation as his price for entering government and proceeded to sideline more moderate advisers, such as ex-City Hall stalwart Sir Eddie Lister, while installing a team of “true believers” in hard Brexit largely from the former Vote Leave campaign.

The source described Cummings’ grip over No 10 as a “reign of terror”, with advisers petrified about keeping their jobs and being told they are expected to be working flat out to deliver Brexit come what may by the 31 October deadline."
To be fair, twice in a day! That is exactly what Johnson campaigned to be leader on.
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Old 7th August 2019, 03:36 PM   #341
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
We need EU permission to come up with a proposal? Wow.
We've made many proposals to the EU. It's rather a waste of time if they just reject them out of hand, or insist they can't be discussed until after Brexit.
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Old 7th August 2019, 03:43 PM   #342
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
You don't like it because it succinctly encapsulates the fundamental unreasonableness of the Brexiteer position.

They don't want to pay a subscription or green fee
As a non-member they don't feel bound by the club rules
But they still want to play the course as if they were a member
However, if the non-member is British then it confers great favour on the golf club to let him play as an honorary member. It should be glad that such an innately superior being deigns to grace its green, never mind even talk to one.
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Old 7th August 2019, 04:03 PM   #343
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They don't still want to play the course as if they were a member. They just want to leave. If the club is prepared to offer a way of paying per round, and if the cost is reasonable, then they might still play there. If not they will play at different clubs.

What is not acceptable is for the club to dictate to ex-members that they can never play at any other club.
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Old 7th August 2019, 04:43 PM   #344
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Nice to see Johnson has things under controlis doing what he is told :

"One Conservative insider said that Cummings had in effect demanded control over Johnson’s operation as his price for entering government and proceeded to sideline more moderate advisers, such as ex-City Hall stalwart Sir Eddie Lister, while installing a team of “true believers” in hard Brexit largely from the former Vote Leave campaign.

The source described Cummings’ grip over No 10 as a “reign of terror”, with advisers petrified about keeping their jobs and being told they are expected to be working flat out to deliver Brexit come what may by the 31 October deadline."
FTFY
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:08 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
A sensible option would be to continue to trade exactly as if we were a full EU member during, say, the first two years after leaving. That would eliminate all this 'cliff edge' nonsense, and give both sides an incentive to agree a trade deal before the period expired. But as I said, that's a sensible option, so I don't expect the EU to agree to it for one moment.
So, um, you support the WA I take it?

Because that's what it says, almost word for word.

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Old 7th August 2019, 11:10 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
After a no deal the EU will not insist on the backstop. The backstop was designed to keep the NI border open. When we leaveno on deal there will be a border so there is no free trade to preserve. There will no future deal with the EU while Boris insists we will not pay for the services we promised to fund until 2020.
After no deal EU will insist on a permanent customs border in the Irish sea as a precondition to open talks. It will probably happen in any event, due to a border poll.

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Old 7th August 2019, 11:14 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You're missing the point. The backstop means that the UK can't negotiate ANY trade deal with ANY other country. That is clearly unacceptable.
Nonesense, of course it can - UK can quit the customs union and is free to make whatever trade deals with whomever the moment it comes up with an Irish border solution that does not involve a border between NI and Ireland.

The only viable solution thus far is a customs border in the Irish sea. The first proposal of the EU was a backstop that puts a customs border in the Irish sea. I think I can see how this could all work out in the end.

Quote:
The EU have been told over and over again that keeping to the GFA does not necessitate the onerous backstop - but it doesn't suit their negotiating position to accept that, so they just keep saying, 'Non.'
Of course it doesn't. A border poll upon which NI secedes from UK and joins Ireland, perhaps after a few years as an independent state to sort the technical details out, is a viable solution and in line with letter and spirit of GFA.

Expect a new Hadrian wall next, but manned from the north.

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Old 7th August 2019, 11:38 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
They don't still want to play the course as if they were a member. They just want to leave. If the club is prepared to offer a way of paying per round, and if the cost is reasonable, then they might still play there. If not they will play at different club.
This is not what people voted for. Before the referendum leave campaigners were not saying that Brexit would mean we lose all our EU privileges. We were told we would keep them all but lose the downsides.
This is not what people voted for.
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Old 7th August 2019, 11:44 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
This is not what people voted for. Before the referendum leave campaigners were not saying that Brexit would mean we lose all our EU privileges. We were told we would keep them all but lose the downsides.
This is not what people voted for.
The Remain campaign did point out that there was a significant risk that this might happen but the Leave campaign assured us all that this was just the so-called "experts" of Project Fear at work.
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Old 8th August 2019, 12:03 AM   #350
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
All we need to do is negotiate a trade deal and the backstop goes away.
No the backstop does not go away. The backstop remains. What it requires is that whatever changes there are in the EU in future the UK passively follows. If the EU decides to ban US goods or make Disney characters illegal* then the UK has to follow.

Now if you believe the EU is wonderful and can never do wrong then that is fine, I happen to think that at present staying in the EU is better than not; but I think that could change in the future. Leaving the EU has a mechanism article 50. There is no exit from the backstop. It requires the UK to be subject to EU law as it is now and as it will be in the future in perpetuity with no legal exit except as agreed by the EU.

*The EU is quite capable of irrational legislation e.g. on GMO. Their is a more rational basis for arguing that Disney's cultural appropriation and claimed ownership of e.g. Snow White, should be banned than GMO's.
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Old 8th August 2019, 12:12 AM   #351
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
This is not what people voted for. Before the referendum leave campaigners were not saying that Brexit would mean we lose all our EU privileges. We were told we would keep them all but lose the downsides.
This is not what people voted for.
I am sure many people voted for Brexit for many different reasons. I do not believe you know what all those people thought would be the consequence of Brexit. I do know people who thought there would be a worsening of the economy post Brexit but who thought there would be a longer term gain. People who thought a short term sacrifice was justified for the longer term benefits. One person I know argues that with global warming the EU would be flooded with refugees and the global warming would impact central and southern europe more than the UK. That looking 30 years ahead the UK needed to be able to adopt its own policies.
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Old 8th August 2019, 12:32 AM   #352
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
So, um, you support the WA I take it?

Because that's what it says, almost word for word.

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If the backstop had an exit mechanism, I would support the WA. I'm not happy with some other parts of it, but in a spirit of compromise, I would put up with its other failings. I suspect with a backstop exit mechanism it would get a majority vote from MPs too.
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Old 8th August 2019, 12:33 AM   #353
Lothian
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I am sure many people voted for Brexit for many different reasons. I do not believe you know what all those people thought would be the consequence of Brexit. I do know people who thought there would be a worsening of the economy post Brexit but who thought there would be a longer term gain. People who thought a short term sacrifice was justified for the longer term benefits. One person I know argues that with global warming the EU would be flooded with refugees and the global warming would impact central and southern europe more than the UK. That looking 30 years ahead the UK needed to be able to adopt its own policies.
Do you think 52% would have voted for the hard brexit and loss of EU privileges that Boris is now prioritising? That no-one was persuaded that German car dealers would make sure that we kept free trade and a customs union but we would not have to pay any contribution and could set our own policies?
It is not about the odd individual view it is about a majority opinion.

My view is the current path would not have popular support.
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Old 8th August 2019, 12:35 AM   #354
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
This is not what people voted for. Before the referendum leave campaigners were not saying that Brexit would mean we lose all our EU privileges. We were told we would keep them all but lose the downsides.
This is not what people voted for.
You'd be foolish to believe all the claims made by any campaigners. During the Brexit campaign both sides lied. I think this happens with most election campaigns. Politicians are liars! (shock!)

I never expected that the EU would allow us to keep all EU privileges after we'd left - they would be mad to do that as it would encourage lots of other countries to also leave the EU.

Last edited by ceptimus; 8th August 2019 at 12:37 AM.
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Old 8th August 2019, 12:40 AM   #355
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If the backstop had an exit mechanism, I would support the WA. I'm not happy with some other parts of it, but in a spirit of compromise, I would put up with its other failings. I suspect with a backstop exit mechanism it would get a majority vote from MPs too.
Backstop does have an exit mechanism. It's not intended or desired to be permanent. The moment Irish border can remain open as it is today the backstop goes away.

EU even offered legally binding agreement to submit to an arbitration, should UK seriously consider to quit but EU wasn't going to let it go. That was just before the second vote, which did not get a majority vote from the MPs, to put it mildly.

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Old 8th August 2019, 12:46 AM   #356
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Backstop does have an exit mechanism. It's not intended or desired to be permanent.
I don't agree that it does have an exit mechanism - not one that can be triggered by the UK. It requires EU consent to exit, or we're stuck in it for evermore.

I know they say that it's not intended to be permanent. Politicians also said that about income tax when it was introduced. I don't trust them. There must be an exit mechanism that can be triggered by either side, and that mechanism needs to be written in law.

What court or body would preside over the arbitration?

Last edited by ceptimus; 8th August 2019 at 12:49 AM.
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Old 8th August 2019, 12:50 AM   #357
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
No the backstop does not go away. The backstop remains. What it requires is that whatever changes there are in the EU in future the UK passively follows. If the EU decides to ban US goods or make Disney characters illegal* then the UK has to follow.

Now if you believe the EU is wonderful and can never do wrong then that is fine, I happen to think that at present staying in the EU is better than not; but I think that could change in the future. Leaving the EU has a mechanism article 50. There is no exit from the backstop. It requires the UK to be subject to EU law as it is now and as it will be in the future in perpetuity with no legal exit except as agreed by the EU.

*The EU is quite capable of irrational legislation e.g. on GMO. Their is a more rational basis for arguing that Disney's cultural appropriation and claimed ownership of e.g. Snow White, should be banned than GMO's.
Edited by zooterkin:  <SNIP>
Edited for rule 0 and rule 12.

Last edited by zooterkin; 8th August 2019 at 09:31 AM.
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Old 8th August 2019, 12:57 AM   #358
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I never expected that the EU would allow us to keep all EU privileges after we'd left - they would be mad to do that as it would encourage lots of other countries to also leave the EU.
Good for you. Now prove beyond a reasonable doubt the same holds true for the other 30,358,759 voters who did not vote to remain. You'll need to prove both of course.

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Old 8th August 2019, 12:59 AM   #359
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I don't agree that it does have an exit mechanism - not one that can be triggered by the UK.
Your agreement has as much bearing on it as the opinion of Michael Dubay has on the shape of the Earth.

Quote:
What court or body would preside over the arbitration?
It was a proposal, not fully agreed on part of the deal. The details such as these could all be agreed to in advance, if UK was remotely interested in having a deal.

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Last edited by McHrozni; 8th August 2019 at 01:00 AM.
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Old 8th August 2019, 01:03 AM   #360
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I don't agree that it does have an exit mechanism - not one that can be triggered by the UK. It requires EU consent to exit, or we're stuck in it for evermore.
Nonsense.
We can just leave, much as Johnson is threatening to do at the end of October.

If we put a solution in place that is reasonable, and the EU reject it, we can do precisely what we're doing at the moment.

I'm with GnaGnaMan, the backstop is an excuse simply because it does not prevent us going No Deal.
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