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#41 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 17,646
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That is a very high death rate even if it does not compare to some of the most deadly viruses. Measles (a paramyxovirus) has long been established as a particularly nasty virus. Nipah and Hendra viruses are also very deadly paramyxoviruses, with mortality rates over 70%.
I don't think we yet know accurately the lethality of 2019-nCoV. |
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#42 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 4,819
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#43 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sweden
Posts: 6,768
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According to Swedish tabloids the feared Death Virus has now reached American shores at Seattle, Washington where a hospitalized patient with pneumonia was tested positive. They had recently been in Wuhan, where they presumably contracted the infection.
Prepare yourself. |
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We would be a lot safer if the Government would take its money out of science and put it into astrology and the reading of palms. Only in superstition is there hope. - Kurt Vonnegut Jr And no, Cuba is not a brutal and corrupt dictatorship, and it's definitely less so than Sweden. - dann |
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#44 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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There's nothing wrong with being alarmed. It's a novel coronavirus and that means the population likely has no immunity against the virus. It's very likely to spread through populations like the Aussie bushfires. And we probably will fail at stopping it for the very reason were were successful stopping SARS. There will be mild cases and they will slip through the cracks.
As I mentioned, we stopped SARS because every case was severe, every case was visible. Most third world countries have little to no public infrastructure. They won't be able to stop it. The one good thing about this virus so far is the fatality rate is very low. The 4th fatality was a man in his 80s with other health problems. The preexisting health issues of the first three fatalities wasn't known yesterday though obviously someone knows. |
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#45 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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SARS not only had an extremely high death rate, it threatened to overwhelm the health care capacity. We didn't have enough ventilators, a nightmare.
As for not knowing the fatality rate yet, that's true to some extent, but we have a reasonably good idea it's nothing like SARS or the 1917-1918 influenza pandemic. |
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#46 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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__________________
Trump lost and he knows it.
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#47 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic
Posts: 3,126
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Time to order some stuff from China.
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#48 |
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Ngunnawal Country
Posts: 69,455
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Please scream inside your heart. |
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#49 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,827
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[quote=arthwollipot;12961914I think the combined title is clearer though.[/QUOTE]
Clearer, but wrong. It's a coronavirus, not a corona virus and definitely not a Corona virus. The beer jokes are driving me nuts. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#50 |
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 26,380
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This signature is for rent. |
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#51 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 47,859
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Great. I've got to travel to China in a few weeks. Not looking forward to that.
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#52 |
The Clarity Is Devastating
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Betwixt
Posts: 17,257
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A zømbie once bit my sister... |
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#53 |
No longer the 1
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 23,410
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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#54 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,827
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It's not mine. I'm quite happy with the part I had up.
Wow, old school! Yes, they'd be much more preferable. ___________________________________ Now presumed to be 4000 infections and total deaths almost certainly under-estimated at the 17 official count: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51202000 And NZ still not screening. At least rate of infection tends to indicate it's not hugely contagious, but WHO will be making an announcement within the next couple of hours. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#55 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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__________________
Trump lost and he knows it.
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#56 |
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 26,380
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This signature is for rent. |
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#57 |
Show me the monkey!
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25,728
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Originally Posted by CNN
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Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot. |
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#59 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,827
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Can you point to a complaint, please.
I said it was wrong. Stick to the facts, mate. Too late - if it's even reasonably contagious, that cat is well and truly out of the bag. That's it, no more eating snake for me. Here's an open source link for that story: https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...reak-in-china/ The WHO has made no decision to call an emergency, mainly through lack of data, so they're getting more: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/h...rus-china.html |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#60 |
Show me the monkey!
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25,728
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Daily Mail reports that Chinese authorities are focusing on a snake seller at a local market.
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__________________
Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot. |
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#61 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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There was a public health conference here today. Wow! They picked this guy up from his home and transported him in a "pod" to an isolation unit at a nearby hospital where robots are providing much of the care!
The patient is doing fine BTW and they aren't doing any contact tracing before his symptoms developed, like on the plane or in the airport. I'd hope as a matter of routine epidemiology they might want to know who he sat next to on the plane from China. It would be a good indicator of infectiousness or not before symptom onset. |
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#62 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,827
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Well, they'll find out if there's an explosion of cases in the next week.
I'd have to say, three weeks after the announcement, the number of cases isn't increasing as fast as it looked a week ago, but it's still probably a week away from knowing one way or the other with certainty. It's also possibly a bit reminiscent of Mexican 'flu - where lots of people had it so mildly they never got counted. With the range of symptoms so far, there could be a lot of people thinking they just have a cold. Being winter, they wouldn't be too surprised, and it is a first cousin to one of the cold viruses. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#63 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,827
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Aaand we've gone from "thousands of times less dangerous than influenza" to "armed lockdown of three Chinese cities and 18 million people..."
https://www.greenwichtime.com/news/a...r-14997682.php |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#64 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 14,124
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A friend just told me they closed down the movie theatres here in Shanghai.
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"... when people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together." Isaac Asimov |
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#65 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Rochester, NY
Posts: 5,156
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The company I work for makes cleaning products, including hard surface disinfectants. Our sales reps in the US and Canada are already getting asked about products effective against this. I've been asked to put together a letter for them detailing which of our products are effective against coronaviruses. Fortunately, the answer is "nearly all of them."
The CDC website just says "Use a diluted bleach solution or a household disinfectant with a label that says “EPA-approved.”" to treat surfaces. That obviously won't help with direct person-to-person transmission, of course. |
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#66 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,827
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I'd say shares in companies manufacutirng face masks are a good bet right now.
Some highly disturbing news out of Scotland, of all places - bloody long way from China - where they have four suspected cases: https://www.theguardian.com/science/...y-matt-hancock If that turns out correct, and that likelihood seems fairly high, it must be fairly easily communicated, because they will have caught it just in everyday life in Wuhan, which means that there must be tens of thousands of cases. Hmmm. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#67 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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Despite China's reaction:
Vox: The coronavirus outbreak is not yet a global health emergency, WHO says
Quote:
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#68 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,827
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And it's not tracking that far off SARS.
SARS was 8000 cases & 776 deaths, the 2019-nCoV is sitting at 800 cases & 26 deaths, so a rate 1/3 of SARS. Plus christ knows how many infected and not picked up. Chinese lockdown now sitting at 10 cities and 60,000,000 people: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51230011 |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#69 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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It's nothing like SARS.
It's more like a really nasty cold no one has immunity to spreading around the world. |
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#70 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,827
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Really?
This doesn't sound like a bad cold: https://www.theguardian.com/science/...ect-25m-people
Quote:
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#71 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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__________________
Trump lost and he knows it.
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#72 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 14,265
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I've been to Chinese Night Markets were you can usually find multiple places that have live snake that they will kill and drain the blood before your eyes - drinking warm snake blood is, ironically, considered great for your health.
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Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam. |
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#73 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 4,525
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I think this is not an appropriate description. This virus appears to cause a severe occasionally fatal pneumonia in a proportion of people infected. The common cold does not cause fatal pneumonia.
The actual fatality rate does not need to be high to cause problems for modern health care systems. If you just have a surge in people with pneumonia requiring hospital care e.g. oxygen this can be crippling for the care system. If the infection is transmissible then this leads to a huge need for isolation facilities which may be limited. Some actual facts. https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...-novel-cov.pdf https://www.gov.uk/government/public...nical-features |
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#74 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 28,853
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33 million people now under lockdown. Scary stuff whatever the severity of the illness itself because of the strain it will put on people’s lives and medical infrastructure.
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#75 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sweden
Posts: 6,768
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Oh no! Two Chinese tourists in Finland from Wuhan are suspected of being suspected of being infected with the Death Virus.
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__________________
We would be a lot safer if the Government would take its money out of science and put it into astrology and the reading of palms. Only in superstition is there hope. - Kurt Vonnegut Jr And no, Cuba is not a brutal and corrupt dictatorship, and it's definitely less so than Sweden. - dann |
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#76 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 30,542
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I've just been to the doctor. They asked if I'd been to China in the past two weeks.
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Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
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#77 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 4,819
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It sounds like bad influenza rather than a bad cold, a few pegs higher.
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#78 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 16,771
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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#80 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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I said, "a really nasty cold no one has immunity to spreading around the world."
If you hear that as "the common cold" then you don't understand what I mean. And if you believe, "The common cold does not cause fatal pneumonia," you are mistaken. RSV causes common cold symptoms. https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/us-surveillance.html
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Pertussis reemerged in epidemic proportions more than a decade ago. https://www.cdc.gov/pertussis/countries/index.html
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Current influenza status: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/?deli...DC_7_3-DM17996
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This new virus strain is going to spread around the world. There's a certain point where it is too late to put the genie back in the bottle and this has passed that point. It will be severe in some populations, especially the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions. We've not heard yet about cases in India, and countries in Africa. https://africatimes.com/2020/01/22/t...w-coronavirus/
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It was suggested that if a novel fu outbreak wasn't stopped in the first few weeks, we would not be able to stop it. The reason and why that differed from SARS was, with flu one has millions of mild cases that go under the radar. Assessment of US hospital capacity including ICU capacity was done during flu pandemic planning. With a novel coronavirus there could be a problem but it won't likely be a total disaster. From WHO
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Given all that, what is it you expect me to post? I look at the media hype and my past experience with these threats and want to point out the media is very much hyping this story. Yes, they should be reporting about the attempts of China to isolate whole cities. That's a huge story. The cases showing up in different countries is an important story. But they continue to call it "the deadly coronavirus" Do they call influenza, "the deadly influenza"? The deadly pertussis outbreak? The media might commonly add those adjectives from time to time, generally about clusters of deaths that occur intermittently. This is a bad pathogen. No one has immunity. It is going to spread around the world like a wildfire. The fatality rate will not be in the millions, maybe 10s of thousands worldwide, but not millions. It will be high among older people and people with preexisting conditions. I fit that category because I'm on a high dose of prednisone. I already checked, waterless hand cleaners with high enough alcohol content will destroy the virus on your hands. I already wash my hands all the time. I will be making sure I have waterless hand cleaner in my car and purse. I'll be more conscientious about all that for a while. There is nothing to panic about. And it is going to spread. |
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