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#1001 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
Posts: 25,589
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A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare |
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#1002 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,381
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#1003 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 5,363
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-and-new-cases
I'm guessing that will put a damper on future transparency about numbers. |
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"The cure for everything is salt water - tears, sweat or the sea." Isak Dinesen |
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#1004 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic
Posts: 3,134
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#1005 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 28,991
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Japanese news is reporting that an 80-year-old woman in Kanagawa has died from coronavirus.
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#1006 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 24,803
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#1007 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,381
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#1008 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,863
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So has anyone actually been confirmed to have it and then got better and was released? I realize its pretty new and perhaps could just kill them later, but I mean, do we know for sure it doesnt kill everyone who gets it?
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Don't fear the REAPER, embrace it |
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#1009 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 49,965
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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#1010 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,909
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That's the most interesting case so far.
The woman hasn't been anywhere near China, nor has anyone she knows. Her son-in-law is a taxi driver, though. Notably, she was diagnosed with pneumonia on 1st February, so she's obviously caught the disease 7-21 days earlier, meaning she became infected at least three weeks ago, and most likely a whole month ago. You don't develop the pneumonia immediately. Another case reported from Japan is that of some bloke in his 20s who hasn't been to China. That's all highly encouraging news, because while it means the virus is spreading, it's not causing the massive number of deaths seen in China. https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/1...-from-outbreak Yes, there are definitely several cases of the disease going away by itself, most notably the Pommy bloke who brought it from Singapore and infected the family at his chalet. He wasn't very sick with it, is now completely free of the disease and is at home. There are lots of other examples. ____________________________ Taking all of the current evidence into account, it seems to me that either the virus has lost its virulence, or the numbers were skewed by only the severe cases being discovered early on. That's fairly common and happened with H1N1 Mexican 'flu. I think it's going to be very much like that pandemic - not as bad as seasonal influenza, but due to nobody being immune, it will harvest a toll of oldies, sickies and random other people, because most people will get it. Health services are likely to be overwhelmed by the volume, but not to the extent that the systems will break entirely. Some people will die as a result of that pressure, and I'm going to stick with my initial prediction that the final death toll will be around 3,000,000. I think the final mortality rate will look a lot like the H1N1 at about 0.05% overall - about half seasonal 'flu. Based on 70% of the population getting it, I get 2.66 million deaths and have thrown in a few more to account for weak health systems in many countries. If you're not chronically ill, or over 75, you will almost certainly survive it. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#1011 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,909
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__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#1012 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 48,599
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It's not so much that politicians lie, but that totalitarian regimes tend to aggressively oppose transparency as a fundamental policy of government. To a much greater degree than other systems.
Yes, Australian politicians can and do hide things. But the Chinese government is in a whole other league. And I think the reliability of the Chinese government's reporting on this issue is a central part of the topic, and should remain part of the thread. |
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#1013 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,849
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#1014 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 49,965
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And the economic damage the virus might do is beginning to hit home: Disney is going to take a 200 Million hit from what is happening to it's Asia/Pacific based Theme Parks/Resorts: The ones in China closed, and drastic drops in attending on those in Asia outside of China.
And this is just a drop in the bucket of how much economic damage this will do. |
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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#1015 |
Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 213
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"Governments may think and say as they like, but force cannot be eliminated, and it is the only real and unanswerable power. We are told that the pen is mightier than the sword, but I know which of these weapons I would choose." - Adrian Carton de Wiart |
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#1016 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic
Posts: 3,134
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#1017 |
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 26,409
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He was a smoker maybe? I would suggest that smokers would also be vulnerable. We also do not know his other health conditions. So your assumption may not be valid.
If you are a heavy smoker I suggest there is a gun held to your head. Give up now or die from this virus. That would put a significant % of the Chinese population at risk. The rest of the non smoking world is reasonably safe. |
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#1018 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
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#1019 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic
Posts: 3,134
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It may also change in different environment.
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#1020 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,909
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Yeah, I agree with the second option, also because there have obviously been very mild cases early on. I did mention that way back when I was using the factor of 100, which I think will be right - there will be 100 or so
Your statement about influenza being "thousands of times worse" is still woefully incorrect, so no apology. That's why I used the example of H1N1. Among the few oldies who croaked, there were several tragic cases reported just in NZ, of perfectly healthy - and in a couple of cases, extremely healthy - people who died from it. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#1021 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,909
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That's what's so cool - and terrifying - about viruses. You cannot predict with any accuracy what they will do. H1N1 is a great example, and I hope I'm right in analogising the two, because that was going to be Spanish 'Flu 2.0 and wasn't. This looked briefly like SARS 2.0 but isn't.
It's also why the world should still treat Covid-19 seriously - the little bastard could mutate and become deadly tomorrow. Again, as I mentioned way back, the more people infected, the greater the chances of a mutation. It also highlights why people need to learn to deal with animals in a way that doesn't encourage cross-infection. We might not be so lucky next time. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#1022 |
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 42,986
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Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos |
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#1023 |
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 42,986
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Everyone's immune system is different. It's just like any other disease. The odds are that the weaker people are more likely to die and the stronger are more likely to survive.
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Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos |
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#1024 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 14,146
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"... when people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together." Isaac Asimov |
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#1025 |
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Ngunnawal Country
Posts: 69,607
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It's very hard to say at this stage, but there are a few estimates that put the mortality rate at around 3%-4%. In other words, between 96% and 97% of people who are infected recover.
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Please scream inside your heart. |
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#1026 |
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 26,409
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The major problem with these figures (mentioned in Arthwollipot's link) is that the number of people who have been infected, during an outbreak, is unknown. A number of people will get infected and recover and they are not counted in any figures as they did not seek medical treatment and if they did the doctor did not count them as having the virus. One option is to say that a certain % of the population died from the virus. I have often seen this when reading about the black death. One small problem with this is that maybe no one died (400 population) from the virus on Lord Howe Island. This may be because they stopped all flights to the Island, rather than the Island being made of super people.
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#1027 |
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Ngunnawal Country
Posts: 69,607
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Please scream inside your heart. |
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#1028 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,909
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The MRC Centre for Global Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London is giving a preliminary rate of 1%, while admitting the ratio of infections against cases tested is at least 19:1. Serious case death rate of 20%, which is huge.
They explain it all pretty well here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/1952...al-scientists/ If the 1% holds and 60% of the world is infected, that's 40,000,000 people dying. You'd better hope they're wrong, because that's getting into nightmare scenario territory - a city of 1,000,000 people will need 5000 critical care beds. Auckland at 1,600,000 probably only has 5000 beds in total and maybe 200 intensive care beds. That's going to be a very big gap that would be repeated around the world. Let's hope they're overestimating the impact. And go long on funeral directors. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#1029 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 5,363
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__________________
"The cure for everything is salt water - tears, sweat or the sea." Isak Dinesen |
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#1030 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,724
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#1031 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 20,240
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Can't use the fact most who die had some kind of health compromise or were over 75 as an amulet.
Fact is, one of my great uncles (whom, of course, I never met) died suddenly and unexpectedly of a flu-like illness two weeks after contracting it, aged 23. This was in 1914 so a bit before the Spanish flu in 1918. |
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Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på! |
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#1032 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,724
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#1033 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 4,540
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This article is quite helpful, reporting deaths in health care staff.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51501005
Quote:
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#1034 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 5,363
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__________________
"The cure for everything is salt water - tears, sweat or the sea." Isak Dinesen |
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#1035 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,909
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Won't be the last.
Meanwhile, Indonesia is still claiming to have zero cases. Another country sharing a border with China without any cases. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-marc-lipsitch |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#1036 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,909
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This is also not good news: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#1037 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,849
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I'm a bit confused here. The immune system does age like the rest of the body. It's one reason we are giving quadruple strength influenza vaccine to people 65 and older.
However there have been occasional exceptions to the rule with flu, not always for clear reasons. The 2009 new variant hit younger people harder than the elderly. |
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#1038 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
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#1039 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,849
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There could be a number of cases in India and poorer countries in Africa that have simply been attributed to flu and other common infections. I wonder what the threshold of pneumonia admissions to hospitals and deaths from pneumonia has to be before any alarm bells go off?
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#1040 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,724
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