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#321 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#322 |
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Ngunnawal Country
Posts: 69,455
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Yes, the citation of the CEO of an company that sells air purification equipment as an "expert" is somewhat suspicious.
ETA: That was just the first link I found. Looking further into it, I would seek alternate sources. |
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#323 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 49,813
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It would take longer in real life;but I can see why they sped it up for dramatic purposes.
I can see you watch movies dealing with medical/public health issues the same way I do with films dealing with Military issues. We both get pretty picky at times. Still, compared to something like "Outbreak".... I did like the way they socked it to the woo merchants with the Jude Law character ,though..... |
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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#324 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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Sigh. Science please, not comments in news magazines or unsupported comments on forums.
NIH, 2010 so this will only be possibly similar: Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces▿ First, a note about surrogate virus studies, because you can't easily study deadly pathogens:
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And third, not mentioned in this study, there is an infectious dose issue, and that dose has to actually enter the host's body. What one can recover off a surface in a study like this doesn't tell us, for example, if that's sufficient to get on a hand and into one's mouth/nose/eyes. It will take epidemiological studies to determine actual transmission risk. I think it's safe to say it's absurdly unlikely packages/letters shipped from China are going to pose a risk. |
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#325 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 18,533
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How many cases and how many deaths outside of China?
Is this another disease that plain old good nursing prevents deaths? Fluids and electrolytes? |
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Any sufficiently advanced idea is indistinguishable from idiocy to those who don't actually understanding the concept. |
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#326 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic
Posts: 3,125
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#327 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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Quite a few cases, widely spread around the world, one or two secondary cases in those countries, you can expect a lot more.
But no fatalities outside of China IIRC. There will be some.
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Preventing or treating secondary pneumonia will be better in first world countries. But we don't have a lot of remedies for this viral pneumonia yet. So supportive care is limited. And a widespread epidemic could tax the ventilator capacity in any country. Looking at Hantavirus, ECMO will be needed and that capacity is severely limited. There will almost certainly be triage to younger, otherwise healthy patients. We don't use ECMO now on many elderly patients with severe pneumonia, including those suffering from influenza. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21900022
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#328 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: the wet side of the mountains
Posts: 3,533
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The scenario I've seen that made the most sense was that it's a bat virus that transferred through snakes to humans because of the practice of drinking fresh snake's blood for virility. Supposedly at the wet markets they will slaughter the snake and drain it into a cup for the buyer.
The person saying this had lived in China and was familiar with their customs, so it's unlikely to be the latest crazy conspiracy theory, but I have no proof, just a source who's usually reputable. |
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#329 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 4,819
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#330 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 28,853
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#331 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 28,853
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Japan has been repatriating its citizens from China but have made the moronic decision to allow them to go home. Two of them even refused to be tested! It’s ridiculous that it was even an option for them. Whereas in the UK, repatriated citizens will have to be quarantined at Brize Norton for two weeks, Japanese citizens had optional screening and then went home if they tested negative.
Two of those who tested positive were asymptomatic. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...n-coronavirus/ |
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#332 |
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 26,380
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Here is a more reliable source
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
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This signature is for rent. |
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#333 |
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Ngunnawal Country
Posts: 69,455
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Thanks for that rj. So yeah, the risk of it spreading via international mail is low.
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Please scream inside your heart. |
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#334 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Oklahoma
Posts: 5,157
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Scott "Permaculture is a philosophy of working with, rather than against nature; of protracted & thoughtful observation rather than protracted & thoughtless labour; & of looking at plants & animals in all their functions, rather than treating any area as a single-product system." Bill Mollison Biome Carbon Cycle Management |
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#335 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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#336 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,827
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NZ looks like having its first case, with firm results due tomorrow.
With still 5-10 flights daily between NZ & China, the person will soon not be alone. Tourist businesses are pooping their pants at the thought of closing Chinese travel, with China being by far the biggest numeric visitor source, and they've dropped by almost 50% as a result of restrictions in China. I imagine lots of people would be a bit averse to sitting in an enclosed cabin with 300 potential carriers for 16 hours, too. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#337 |
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 26,380
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The snake eats the bat that has the virus. The virus survives in the snake. The snake is then killed and the blood drained and drank by a human without being cooked. The virus thinks it is back in a bat, but one that does not know how to deal with the virus. So the human falls sick. Even better (for the virus, not me) the virus can spread to another human.
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#338 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 28,853
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__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893) |
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#339 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,827
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There's also a massive lag in testing and treating patients in a system that was never designed to cope with the numbers they have, so while the numbers are definitely under-reported in infection totals, it's not deliberate.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/w...us-health.html |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#340 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,721
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#341 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 7,324
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Welp, the Chinese are smashing MahJong tables to keep people from gathering. I guess the masks aren't doing their job.
https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=sh5CB_1580400020 |
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"I dont call that evolution, I call that the survival of the fittest." - Bulletmaker "I thought skeptics would usually point towards a hoax rather than a group being duped." - makaya325 Kit is not a skeptic. He is a former Bigfoot believer that changed his position to that of non believer.- Crowlogic |
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#342 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 14,265
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Right now, I am quite worried about the impact of the epidemic on Russia: all the same reasons for locals to pretend there is no problem, but without the will or ability of the central government to isolate the problem.
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Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam. |
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#343 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic
Posts: 3,125
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Local news brought article from BBC, but I couldn't find it on BBC. So no English version, sorry.
https://www.lidovky.cz/svet/jak-koro...zahranici_tesa The article describes symptoms, cause of death, and other new information, based on cases in China. From study set of 99 cases, 11 died, 57 is still being treated. The first person who died, died after 11 days from being hospitalized, and that case is considered fast, poor lung condition due to smoking being the factor. So the mortality is on par with SARS, and death number lags significantly behind the infected. They say that most of the infected are men between 56-67, sadly no more detail. 52 of 99 suffered from other health issues (hearth disease, stroke in the past, diabetes), smoking seems to be strong factor too. As for the number of infected, the exponential growth slowed down a bit. This is table for 1 day factor based on 7 day average, together with number of cases in China. 1.42 is still insane though. 23.1.2020 830 1,51648437449667 24.1.2020 1287 1,54230245915943 25.1.2020 1975 1,49023422342696 26.1.2020 2744 1,45580330971039 27.1.2020 4545 1,48088088847644 28.1.2020 5974 1,45154452865662 29.1.2020 7711 1,45042865334268 30.1.2020 9692 1,42061525287631 |
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#344 |
Muse
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Sweden
Posts: 609
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Confirmed case of corona in my country, Sweden.
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L.H 1919 - 1993 R.I.P Unfortunately the 911truth movement web site does not allow any opinions contrary to their own, or I would have presented my views. David Scott - CTBUH Chairman |
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#345 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 4,001
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Sorry no links ...
SCMP (South China Morning Post, an English-language HK newspaper) has an article on fury in China over a paper (papers?) reporting that the dangers of the Wuhan coronavirus were known well before the public alerts were issued. I'm not clear about the exact timeline, especially re when the early data on the illness became available to the researchers. However, it seemed clear that the nature of the illness was, in some sense, known to at least some public officials (in Wuhan alone? in some bodies in Beijing too?) well before the alarm was sounded. NPR article reported on something apparently rather common: villages erecting road blocks, preventing people from entering or leaving. Yes, many are surely illegal, and there's an element of stable doors being bolted after the horse has gone (and what to do about people already in the villages who come down with symptoms after the road blocks have gone up). This is in addition to the various official bans on travel. But it all may help to slow down the spread. Surely the biggest concern is if the Wuhan coronavirus spreads to many countries with weak public health systems ... it would then likely become endemic there, and nigh on impossible to stop it spreading worldwide, right? A "new flu" perhaps. |
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#346 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,721
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#347 |
Quester of Doglets
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Sunny South Australia
Posts: 2,928
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I note people saying this, and wonder if this is a form of Y2k denial.
i.e. SARS only killed 900 people, because of a co-ordinated world-wide response to stop it. |
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We would be better, and braver, to engage in enquiry, rather than indulge in the idle fancy, that we already know -- Plato. |
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#348 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 30,541
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But there's good news: According to US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross the virus will be good for the US economy.
And in Italy, "Oriental" students who haven't been home in years are being kept out of class. |
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Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
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#349 |
Show me the monkey!
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25,728
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Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot. |
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#350 |
Quester of Doglets
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Sunny South Australia
Posts: 2,928
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I've seen documentary footage of snakes and bats living in the same cave (snakes probably eating bats).
Under those circumstances, the snakes would be crawling over bat feces 24 hours per day. All that's missing in that scenario is someone catching the snakes to sell at market. |
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We would be better, and braver, to engage in enquiry, rather than indulge in the idle fancy, that we already know -- Plato. |
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#351 |
Self Employed
Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 29,717
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The CDC has imposed a 14 day quarantine on Americans evacuted from Wuhan.
CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/healt...day/index.html |
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Yahtzee: "You're doing that thing again where when asked a question you just discuss the philosophy of the question instead of answering the bloody question." Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..." Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate." |
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#352 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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The thing about this hypothesis, much as it is possible, is that the first cases have now been traced to people who did not go to the Wuhan market.
It's more likely a few cases were passed around before the outbreak took off. We’re still not sure where the Wuhan coronavirus really came from
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#353 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 24,504
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Science is self-correcting. Woo is self-contradicting. |
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#354 |
Quester of Doglets
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Sunny South Australia
Posts: 2,928
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We would be better, and braver, to engage in enquiry, rather than indulge in the idle fancy, that we already know -- Plato. |
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#355 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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Trump lost and he knows it.
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#356 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 14,265
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It's ok as long as they are married to each other.
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Ceterum autem censeo fox et amicis esse delendam. |
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#357 |
Show me the monkey!
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25,728
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Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot. |
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#358 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 4,819
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A paper published yesterday in the Journal of Medical Virology also suggests that the first infections occurred in early-mid November, November 9th it says with 95% credible interval (confidence interval?).
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#359 |
Show me the monkey!
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25,728
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__________________
Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot. |
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#360 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 85,649
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There's no question this virus jumped from animal to people. And jumping from one animal species to another as an intermediary before jumping to humans is very common.
It could also be that the first people infected, infected others at the market, or infected animals at the market that then infected more people. I was just pointing out the market is no longer thought to be where patient zero acquired the infection. |
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