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Tags 2020 elections , Democratic primaries , iowa caucus , political predictions , political speculation , presidential candidates

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Old 3rd February 2020, 02:28 PM   #1
d4m10n
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Democratic caucuses and primaries

The voting for Democratic nominee officially kicks off tonight in Iowa, and I'd like to have a thread in which we try to game out how it all shakes out on one side of the aisle, preferably in quantifiable terms.

Personally I think Bernie is going to finish very strong tonight, probably taking the plurality of the initial vote and perhaps state delegate equivalents awarded as well. I'll be surprised if Biden isn't right behind him. I'd love to be surprised by an Elizabeth Warren surge or a fabled Amy KlobuCHARGE, but that's not in the cards.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 02:46 PM   #2
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I'll check back in at 7 pm ET.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 02:59 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
The voting for Democratic nominee officially kicks off tonight in Iowa, and I'd like to have a thread in which we try to game out how it all shakes out on one side of the aisle, preferably in quantifiable terms.

Personally I think Bernie is going to finish very strong tonight, probably taking the plurality of the initial vote and perhaps state delegate equivalents awarded as well. I'll be surprised if Biden isn't right behind him. I'd love to be surprised by an Elizabeth Warren surge or a fabled Amy KlobuCHARGE, but that's not in the cards.
Reading up on the format they use in Iowa, I think Biden will end up taking the plurality, or a very close second to Bernie. The way it works in Iowa, if any candidate doesn't get to 15% in that caucus then they are free to move to another candidate. I think Bloomberg, and Buttigieg won't get there, and most of their "voters?" will move to Biden.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 06:01 PM   #4
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I believe the caucuses began 4 minutes ago. No results yet, but it's officially underway.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 06:31 PM   #5
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I'm following here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...democrats.html

There's live updates from reporters inside the caucuses.
Quote:
Reid Epstein, reporting from Johnston 5m ago

It doesn’t look like Joe Biden will be viable here in Johnston. It requires 54 supporters to reach 15 percent and Biden appears to have less than 40.
Could be good news for Buttigieg maybe?
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Old 3rd February 2020, 06:58 PM   #6
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I don't know how representative Johnston is, but the NYT reporter there is reporting the results.

Quote:

Reid Epstein, reporting from Johnston Just now

First alignment results from Johnston: Sanders 76, Klobuchar 75, Buttigieg 70, Warren 59. Not viable: Biden 37, Yang 33, Steyer 4, Gabbard 4.
"Not viable" candidates means below 15%. Now the "viable" candidates will try to convince their supporters to come join their group.

The big news here is Biden didn't break 15%. We'll see if that holds true for other precincts. Also Klobuchar seems to be doing surprisingly strongly. Only 1 vote behind the leader, Sanders.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 07:30 PM   #7
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Updates from NYT reporters:
Quote:
Reid Epstein, reporting from Johnston 4m ago

Final results from Johnston 2: Klobuchar 106, Sanders 83, Buttigieg 81, Warren 69. Warren picked up most Biden supporters after he was not viable.
Quote:

Lisa Lerer, in New York 2m ago

Johnston 2 is a nice win for Klobuchar. Her staff has said she would be viable in some places. Winning an Obama-to-Trump area is a feather in her cap.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 07:45 PM   #8
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I wonder if the next door neighbor thing might be helping Klobuchar.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 07:51 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I don't know how representative Johnston is, but the NYT reporter there is reporting the results.



"Not viable" candidates means below 15%. Now the "viable" candidates will try to convince their supporters to come join their group.

The big news here is Biden didn't break 15%. We'll see if that holds true for other precincts. Also Klobuchar seems to be doing surprisingly strongly. Only 1 vote behind the leader, Sanders.
Klobuchar has an actual history of outperforming fundamentals. That is not surprising.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:11 PM   #10
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Taking a long time for results to come in.

Current running count according to NYT:

Buttigieg: 1,125
Sanders: 922
Biden: 693
Warren: 676
Klobuchar: 579
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:13 PM   #11
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It was interesting seeing some of the responses of former Yang voters in that hilarious MSNBC coverage "hey guys you aren't viable!" .

I believe one was going to Klobuchar, another to Steyer I think and three of them to Sanders.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:31 PM   #12
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Actual results in so far (from some precincts & not others) have Bernie ahead slightly with Mayor Pete close behind. Exit polls (a better predictor of what's happening over the whole state instead of just the quickest places to officially report) show Bernie ahead by double digits and Mayor Pete not even in second.

What they agree on is that Gropey McAbsentminded is going down hard.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:36 PM   #13
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Vote totals don't seem to be changing.

I'm watching NBC News on YouTube right now:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE


Apparently they had an app that isn't working.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:37 PM   #14
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The delay is making people anxious. I hope there was a massive screw up which leads to the end of this stupid system.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:41 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
The delay is making people anxious. I hope there was a massive screw up which leads to the end of this stupid system.
And no matter what happens, the Conspriacy kooks will go crazy.
Never liked the Caucus system.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:43 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Actual results in so far (from some precincts & not others) have Bernie ahead slightly with Mayor Pete close behind. Exit polls (a better predictor of what's happening over the whole state instead of just the quickest places to officially report) show Bernie ahead by double digits and Mayor Pete not even in second.

What they agree on is that Gropey McAbsentminded is going down hard.

Boy you areall are anxious for Trump to get in again, aren't you?
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:45 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
What they agree on is that Gropey McAbsentminded is going down hard.
That does appear to be correct.

I'm actually relieved that Biden is finally deflating.

NBC News is talking about Biden underperforming expectations now.

The technical difficulties that are slowing down the results are getting annoying. My lunchtime is almost over.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:47 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Boy you areall are anxious for Trump to get in again, aren't you?
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:51 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Spin it again, Sam!

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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:56 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
That does appear to be correct.

I'm actually relieved that Biden is finally deflating.

NBC News is talking about Biden underperforming expectations now.

The technical difficulties that are slowing down the results are getting annoying. My lunchtime is almost over.

And I hope this might kill the stupid caucus system.....
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:57 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Boy you are all are anxious for Trump to get in again, aren't you?
I don't think it's that. I think a lot of us are just skeptical that Biden is really the "safe" choice.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:57 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Boy you areall are anxious for Trump to get in again, aren't you?
Exactly as anxious as you are to finally provide us with a reason why we should think Hillary II is the ideal opponent to defeat him.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:59 PM   #23
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And there goes Mayor Pete on his way down just like the entry/exit polls looked, putting Betty in second behind Bernie. Those two now have more than half of all votes.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:02 PM   #24
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https://mobile.twitter.com/jaylencav...354298881?s=20

Is this seriously how they determine fractions of a delegate?

Like why would you not give it to whichever candidate has the greater fraction? I could maybe see if it was close but when it's .8 to .2

It just seems incredibly stupid if true
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:03 PM   #25
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The numbers have finally started to change again.

Sanders jumps into the lead, and Warren vaults into 2nd. Biden falls to 5th.


Sanders: 1,811
Warren: 1,636
Buttigieg: 1,553
Klobuchar: 773
Biden: 722
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:07 PM   #26
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If this hold, Biden is toast.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:09 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
https://mobile.twitter.com/jaylencav...354298881?s=20

Is this seriously how they determine fractions of a delegate?

Like why would you not give it to whichever candidate has the greater fraction? I could maybe see if it was close but when it's .8 to .2

It just seems incredibly stupid if true
This one is making me scratch my head too:

https://twitter.com/shawnsebastian/s...38096571686912
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:10 PM   #28
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And once again the numbers have stopped changing for a long time!
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:11 PM   #29
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I really have to wonder how Biden could be doing so badly.

I personally didn't understand how he was so obviously "electable" except that he was Obama's VP, but even then, how is it he is so far off the pace?

Is it something to do with the Iowa demographic?
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:11 PM   #30
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:13 PM   #31
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I think Iowa is not going to be the first big political contest in 2024......
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:15 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I don't think it's that. I think a lot of us are just skeptical that Biden is really the "safe" choice.
Actually I tended to like Warren and Mayor Pete as being the safest choices.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:16 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I really have to wonder how Biden could be doing so badly.

I personally didn't understand how he was so obviously "electable" except that he was Obama's VP, but even then, how is it he is so far off the pace?

Is it something to do with the Iowa demographic?
He was polling well, but polls don't necessarily capture how likely people are to actually show up at the caucuses, or how committed they are to their choice. I honestly think Biden was the first choice for "low-information" voters because they recognized his name. He had the highest name recognition going into it as the former VP.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:18 PM   #34
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God, who sold that software to the Iowa Democratic party? Has Professor Harold Hill given up band instruments and gone into computer software?
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:19 PM   #35
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Yeah, I would bet that either Iowa goes to a primary system, or they lose their opening spot in elections from now on.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:20 PM   #36
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It's fun watching the talking heads spinning their wheels like crazy.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:25 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
He was polling well, but polls don't necessarily capture how likely people are to actually show up at the caucuses, or how committed they are to their choice. I honestly think Biden was the first choice for "low-information" voters because they recognized his name. He had the highest name recognition going into it as the former VP.
This could be a case of the enthusiasm gap.

Trump had enthusiastic supporters. According to dudalb, Bernie Bros are the equivalent of Trump supporters, meaning Sanders should do well.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:26 PM   #38
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Reporting is turning more towards "how will Iowa be different in 2024?"
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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:26 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
This one is making me scratch my head too:

https://twitter.com/shawnsebastian/s...38096571686912
After the non viable candidates votes were reaportioning, the totals and how the delegates were divvied up makes more sense.

Sanders had 2.44, Warren 1.72, Buttigieg 1.53, so they each got two.

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Old 3rd February 2020, 09:33 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Reporting is turning more towards "how will Iowa be different in 2024?"
It either goes to a primary system or New Hampshire becomes the first big event....
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