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Old 9th March 2020, 07:10 AM   #241
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Dow was off over 2000 after a few minutes this morning. Trading was suspended for a few minutes. Open again, some rebound but still off over 1400.
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Old 9th March 2020, 09:35 AM   #242
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https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-3-1028975968

Bond yields falling to record lows, major indices off 5%..

It's going to have impacts on the real economy for sure.
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Old 9th March 2020, 09:49 AM   #243
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There are things I don't understand. Low oil prices are a good thing. (Unless you have Chevron stock, like me.)


Of course, what's really happening is that factories aren't producing as much, so they need less oil. The falling stocks are a reflection of a weakened economy, not the cause. However, the coronavirus is temporary. It will come back. If I knew when, I'd be rich.
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Old 9th March 2020, 10:18 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
There are things I don't understand. Low oil prices are a good thing. (Unless you have Chevron stock, like me.)


Of course, what's really happening is that factories aren't producing as much, so they need less oil. The falling stocks are a reflection of a weakened economy, not the cause. However, the coronavirus is temporary. It will come back. If I knew when, I'd be rich.
Actually, the price of crude is being driven down more by increased supply than decreased demand, at the moment. Longer term it will be people traveling less and buying less gasoline/jet fuel. I don't think less production in factories drives oil prices too much. Not much of the world still uses oil for power generation. Some products are oil byproducts so, theres that, but its not a whole lot.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/opec...is-coming.html
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Old 9th March 2020, 10:29 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
...and now you're saying that air travel should end ...
I've been saying that for years.

No, it's not the major driver of climate change, but it's the most easily avoidable one that causes damage way out of balance with the actual worth of it.

Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
while dancing about how the current predicament has made you richer.
You a bit jealous too, mate?

Why would I not dance about buying an asst at $37 which is worth $300 three weeks later?

Give me an example of when you predicted an asset rise that appreciated almost 1000% in three weeks.

Should have followed my advice and you wouldn't be so sour about it.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
There are things I don't understand. Low oil prices are a good thing. (Unless you have Chevron stock, like me.)
Best of all, it comes with the added bonus of the Saudis getting blistered by the whooping they're getting, mainly thanks to that paragon of virtue, one Vladimir Putin.

The fact that oil's fall is driven by demand falling off a cliff is another bonus - this will easily be the lowest year for emissions this century. Be quite ironic if emissions were below the Paris non-Accord.

You'd almost think Gaia was chuckling somewhere.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Of course, what's really happening is that factories aren't producing as much, so they need less oil. The falling stocks are a reflection of a weakened economy, not the cause. However, the coronavirus is temporary. It will come back. If I knew when, I'd be rich.
Funnily enough, I don't think that day is far off.

The falls are now being driven by sheer panic - people aren't thinking it through, just as they didn't think it through at the start.

Some facts that I think will sink in in the near future:

The disease isn't the Apocalypse.

Take Italy as a prime example. "X deaths in a single day! OMG!!1!" Yes, that's bad news, but when you consider that Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with an average age higher than cruise ships, and that on any given day 170 Italians die anyway, it's not as bad as it might seem.

People are still looking at China's numbers and hearing WHO talk about 3.4% mortality rate and they get scared. When the numbers show - like South Korea's - a mortality rate of 05-1%, the panic will evaporate.

Yes, there will be deaths, and yes, hospitals will struggle to cope and there will be some carnage, but it ain't Captain Trips and people will wake up to that eventually.

I'll let you know when I think the tide is turning, but I wouldn't be expecting the markets to recover as fast as they tanked, because there are going to be some severe bottlenecks in the supply chain. On the flip side, governments are supporting businesses and planning infrastructure spending, so it will grow back.

Given the speed the markets went to insane levels, it might be a good thing to have a bit slower growth for a while anyway.
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Old 9th March 2020, 10:51 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
Dow was off over 2000 after a few minutes this morning. Trading was suspended for a few minutes. Open again, some rebound but still off over 1400.
Thank the gods for guaranteed capital.
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Old 9th March 2020, 10:55 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
No, it's not the major driver of climate change, but it's the most easily avoidable one that causes damage way out of balance with the actual worth of it.
Nonsense. Eliminating coal plants and gasoline engine cars would do far more without disrupting trade. How do you propose to replace airplanes?

Quote:
You a bit jealous too, mate?
If I were very happy that my shares made me a few thousand bucks at the cost of human lives or global economy, do you think people's negative reaction to that would be attributable to jealousy?

But that sure speaks to your character. Greedy people think that everyone else is greedy too.

Quote:
Why would I not dance about buying an asst at $37 which is worth $300 three weeks later?
Because you're not a ******* island.

Quote:
Give me an example of when you predicted an asset rise that appreciated almost 1000% in three weeks.
Don't care. Money's not an issue for me.
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Old 9th March 2020, 11:55 AM   #248
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Actually, the price of crude is being driven down more by increased supply than decreased demand, at the moment. Longer term it will be people traveling less and buying less gasoline/jet fuel. I don't think less production in factories drives oil prices too much. Not much of the world still uses oil for power generation. Some products are oil byproducts so, theres that, but its not a whole lot.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/opec...is-coming.html
... to the point where low crude prices could actually be economy stimulating everywhere except the oilpatch. Lower cost of input for transportation and organic based products (eg plastics, rubber).

So I can see a hit for US and CDN domestic oil profits since they're at or near capacity and can't make up the revenues by expanding rapidly. I'm in Vancouver, we're affected by oil price fluctuations due to our economic ties to Alberta, refineries and oil tankers and whatnot. There's always shockwaves in the support industries.
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Old 9th March 2020, 01:22 PM   #249
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Don't worry people. The invisible hand will descend from heaven and raise the economy from the dead.
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Old 9th March 2020, 01:56 PM   #250
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NZ sharemarket opening in 5...4....3....2.....1.....
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Old 9th March 2020, 07:50 PM   #251
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I didn't lose as much as I thought I would today.

My paper losses were less than a year's salary.
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Old 10th March 2020, 12:04 AM   #252
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Now it's a bear market.
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Old 10th March 2020, 01:13 PM   #253
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The normal ways of shoring up the market seem not to be working.
I think one of the commenters on CNN Had it right last night when he said attempts to just fix the markets are not going to work with what is happening now;best way to help the markets is to get the VIrus under control.
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Old 10th March 2020, 01:15 PM   #254
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Now it's a bear market.
Most economist have been predicting a recession would happen in the next couple of years; but I don't think anybody could have predicted it would be a public health crisis that would trigger it.
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Old 10th March 2020, 02:07 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The normal ways of shoring up the market seem not to be working.
I think one of the commenters on CNN Had it right last night when he said attempts to just fix the markets are not going to work with what is happening now;best way to help the markets is to get the VIrus under control.
Well put - that's exactly right.

The Dow is back up almost all yesterday's lost ground, but it's going to be very temporary.
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Old 10th March 2020, 02:27 PM   #256
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The problem of the market, namely the dependency on just-in-time delivery from China, is not something that can quickly be solved by throwing money at it.
Similarly, undercutting US energy companies with cheap oil will put their viability into question and halt any effort at expansion.
Instead of a quick-fix, a long term plan on how to reduce dependency is required to calm the Markets.
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Old 10th March 2020, 02:30 PM   #257
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Here's one for you - there seems to be growing confidence that Gilead's Remdesivir will be the one treatment that works on Covid-19, and they're ramping up production, just in case the trials prove the efficacy of the drug. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...st-coronavirus

I'm going to divert some of TVIX profit into Gilead.

If Remdesivir doesn't work, they're still an excellent performer in the drug market and a good long-term hold.

If it does work, their share price is going to go absolutely astronomical.

And when the results of trials are announced will be far too late.

To those who have cashed up - buy a few. They're well of their peak, and at worst they're only $10 over their long-term price of about $63.
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Old 10th March 2020, 04:12 PM   #258
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"Stocks are back up most of yesterday's losses"

"Futures are down 200 points immediately after closing"
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Old 11th March 2020, 04:50 AM   #259
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
"Stocks are back up most of yesterday's losses"

"Futures are down 200 points immediately after closing"
It's not so much a black swan as a drunk swan.


Of course, drunks tend to end up on the floor.
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Old 11th March 2020, 10:12 AM   #260
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Well, the swan is certainly headed for the floor - it's given up all yesterday's dead cats and is back hovering around bear country.

Just think - the 10-year T-bill yield is now lower than during WWII: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/trea...sentiment.html
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Old 11th March 2020, 10:55 AM   #261
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I've started some modest buying.
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Old 11th March 2020, 12:12 PM   #262
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I've started some modest buying.
Don't buy Modest*, buy Gilead. Modest suck and are headed for the floor.

Gilead is a genuine 10:1 shot, buy only costing 1:10 odds. A huge overlay in betting terms.

*Don't they make tampons?
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Old 11th March 2020, 12:54 PM   #263
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Dow cratered again today.
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Old 11th March 2020, 12:55 PM   #264
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I've started some modest buying.
There are bargains to be had, as in any downturn, but of course the risk is cash flow problems if you need the money you invested in stocks before they start to rise.
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Old 11th March 2020, 03:32 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
There are bargains to be had, as in any downturn, but of course the risk is cash flow problems if you need the money you invested in stocks before they start to rise.
I only invest money I don't need, as is proper for gambling.
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Old 11th March 2020, 06:23 PM   #266
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I see futures are down a few hundred already, on top of another 5% drop at closing. Ain't no stopping this bear.

I'm selling my remaining TVIX today - I think @ $270 the remaining bad news is all built in. Time to buy Gilead, which coincidentally, Forbes lists as a buy regardless of Remdesivir.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesbe.../#2387fde220d5
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Old 11th March 2020, 06:36 PM   #267
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And let me just bask in my brilliance for a moment - this is from the 20th February:

Quote:
Sharemarkets down 1% across the board with a lot more to come.

I'll be amazed if they don't drop by 10-20% once the scope becomes evident.
Only three weeks later, it's already come to pass.

You heard it here first!

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...8#post12997398
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Old 11th March 2020, 06:53 PM   #268
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We just had a triple whammy with Tom Hanks announcing he has the virus, Trump making a crappy speech even by his standards, and, most important, the NBA suspencing it season because of the Virus.
The suspension is huge. One of the big three sports cancelling it's seaon is going to send the panic level off the meter tomorrow, and you know the market will react.
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Old 11th March 2020, 07:08 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The suspension is huge. One of the big three sports cancelling it's seaon is going to send the panic level off the meter tomorrow, and you know the market will react.
Already has.

Futures are down another 1000, so it looks to me like the 20,000 barrier is well within sights now.

That's when the panic will begin.
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Old 11th March 2020, 07:15 PM   #270
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The real political shock will be if Nascar gets canceled.
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Old 11th March 2020, 08:19 PM   #271
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Haha! Not to mention WWE.
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Old 11th March 2020, 11:06 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Already has.

Futures are down another 1000, so it looks to me like the 20,000 barrier is well within sights now.

That's when the panic will begin.
I'm somewhat surprised the market hasn't dropped even more. The market was at a high in Feb. when it was damned obvious to anyone following the news this thing was going to be big. I don't think they have a clue what sort of impact this will have on Q1 earnings and banking stress across the developed world will be enormous. And Q2 may be worse. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see 15000, or even 10000 breached. A lot of the factors that caused the 2008/9 crisis were papered over and we already had another asset bubble.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the total coronavirus deaths in America for 2020 come in below a standard flu season as a result of social distancing even if less extreme than China. But the economic damage from those measures will be fairly severe.
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Old 12th March 2020, 01:40 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I'm somewhat surprised the market hasn't dropped even more. The market was at a high in Feb. when it was damned obvious to anyone following the news this thing was going to be big.
Damn right - I was amazed nobody could see it coming, and that was on 24 February.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the total coronavirus deaths in America for 2020 come in below a standard flu season as a result of social distancing even if less extreme than China. But the economic damage from those measures will be fairly severe.
That's the exact problem - it's damned if you do, and more damned if you don't.

They're going to run out of paper to print money on before this is over.

I wouldn't be taking bets on the death totals just yet - this little bug is a sneaky little sucker.
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Old 12th March 2020, 02:09 AM   #274
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Damn right - I was amazed nobody could see it coming, and that was on 24 February.



That's the exact problem - it's damned if you do, and more damned if you don't.

They're going to run out of paper to print money on before this is over.

I wouldn't be taking bets on the death totals just yet - this little bug is a sneaky little sucker.
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Old 12th March 2020, 04:56 AM   #275
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sub-genius prediction: when the market opens in an hour and a half, it's going to hit the circuit breaker in 5 minutes. Maybe they even close the market today. Thanks, Mr. Trump!
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Old 12th March 2020, 06:31 AM   #276
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Wheeeeeeee!!!!! Here we go again!!!!!
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Old 12th March 2020, 06:34 AM   #277
calebprime
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I was wrong. It took 7 or 8 minutes, not 5.
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Old 12th March 2020, 08:43 AM   #278
The Atheist
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My prediction of the Dow testing 20,000 didn't take long to come to fruition.

Even with circuit breakers in operation I can see it diving below the magical mark this week. Next at the latest.

I did say this would make GFC look like a mild correction and I think that's being shown right now.

Governments are powerless.
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Old 12th March 2020, 08:58 AM   #279
calebprime
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If we all asked you to stop this fiasco, The Athiest, would you use your powers to turn this thing around? Is there no bottom to the depth of your hateful depravity? You're like God in the story of Job. Not much different. Have mercy on the financial markets, Atheist. If we beseeched you?
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Old 12th March 2020, 09:33 AM   #280
marting
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Today, in the House of Representatives with Pence* looking on:

“The idea of anybody getting it easily the way people in other countries are doing it, we’re not set up for that. Do I think we should be? Yes. But we’re not,” Fauci testified.

Edited: Pence looking on was last week, not at the house.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/top-...s-failing.html

And we keep telling ourselves that we have the best healthcare in the World. Like it's "Beautiful, and Perfect" to paraphrase our dear leader. I suppose it's true if you measure it by the amount spent per capita.
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