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Old 12th March 2020, 09:36 AM   #281
calebprime
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When Trump dies in a month's time after his heroic struggle with illness, after really a heck of a fight, best fight ever, does the market go up? Way up?
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Old 12th March 2020, 11:00 AM   #282
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'm selling my remaining TVIX today - I think @ $270 the remaining bad news is all built in.
Very good day to be too busy to enact that - TVIX currently at $400.

That's definitely my spot and the sale order is in.

I hope at least one of you got on!

Originally Posted by calebprime View Post
When Trump dies in a month's time after his heroic struggle with illness, after really a heck of a fight, best fight ever, does the market go up? Way up?
Quite possibly.

Although given that puts Pence in charge, it might go further down.
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Old 12th March 2020, 12:21 PM   #283
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Dow 2000 points down today. So far.

ECB announces monetary package - Euro shares fall off a cliff.

Is there anyone left who doesn't see this a Black Swan now?
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Old 12th March 2020, 01:18 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by calebprime View Post
If we all asked you to stop this fiasco, The Athiest, would you use your powers to turn this thing around? Is there no bottom to the depth of your hateful depravity? You're like God in the story of Job. Not much different. Have mercy on the financial markets, Atheist. If we beseeched you?
It is hard to conceive of a better antidote to the insufferable greed of the world upper classes than this crash. Truly offensive to imagine cruise passengers not feeling the eternal pain that many in the world experience as routine, and the trophy hunters, the "tag and release" game fishers.
Watching David Attenborough catalogue the habitat destruction of good animals relives the prescient Jonathan Swift.
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Old 12th March 2020, 01:20 PM   #285
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I, for one, welcome The Atheist as our cruel, capricious Overlord.
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Old 12th March 2020, 01:48 PM   #286
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No Brackets this year. NCAA just cancelled March Madness.
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Old 12th March 2020, 02:01 PM   #287
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Disneyland is closing. Now I know the Apocaylpse is upon us.
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Old 12th March 2020, 02:30 PM   #288
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Oh come off it people. It's not that bad. Even with all the temporary problems, the Dow was down less than 10% today.
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Old 12th March 2020, 02:46 PM   #289
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Originally Posted by calebprime View Post
If we all asked you to stop this fiasco, The Athiest, would you use your powers to turn this thing around? Is there no bottom to the depth of your hateful depravity? You're like God in the story of Job. Not much different. Have mercy on the financial markets, Atheist. If we beseeched you?
ROFL.
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Old 12th March 2020, 02:47 PM   #290
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No one can crash a stock market like Trump can. Best ever. Better than every other president in history.
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Old 12th March 2020, 03:47 PM   #291
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
It is hard to conceive of a better antidote to the insufferable greed of the world upper classes than this crash.
Won't losing 2/3 of their money make them more greedy?

In all of the financial bollocks to date, I haven't seen a single authority asking landlords to allow grace to tenants.

It's not like it would hurt them, because mortgage rates will be zero when this finishes.

Originally Posted by calebprime View Post
If we all asked you to stop this fiasco, The Athiest, would you use your powers to turn this thing around? Is there no bottom to the depth of your hateful depravity? You're like God in the story of Job. Not much different. Have mercy on the financial markets, Atheist. If we beseeched you?
Sorry, I missed that.

Soon, sure thing. I have a side bet on the Dow piercing 20,000 on the way down before 31 March.

Looks a dead certainty to me.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Oh come off it people. It's not that bad. Even with all the temporary problems, the Dow was down less than 10% today.
Haha!

I love that - finding a bright side in everything. Good on ya!
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Old 12th March 2020, 03:55 PM   #292
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That's why things go so badly down below on earth: God is like Pete Rose, betting against his own team.
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Old 12th March 2020, 04:51 PM   #293
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My silver lining is that last year my family was trying to get me to take out student loans and invest the money, and I didn't.
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Old 12th March 2020, 04:59 PM   #294
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
No one can crash a stock market like Trump can. Best ever. Better than every other president in history.
Thing is Trump directly crashed the market with his actions. Hoover was just the guy in the White House when the market collapses.
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Old 12th March 2020, 07:30 PM   #295
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Holy crap - Dow futures might go under 20k today!

Asia down massively & futures down to 20400.

This isn't so much a Black Swan as a Black Plague.

And although China is returning to work, how many western companies will manage this?

Quote:
Special measures included workers walking in single file with a 30-second gap between them, dividers between work stations, and metre-and-a-half gaps between people in the break room.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...pany-executive

And another vote for shut the bloody border.
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Old 12th March 2020, 07:46 PM   #296
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Looks like all major sports leagues are canceling sporting events until further notice.
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Old 12th March 2020, 07:54 PM   #297
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My Carnival stock took another 30% hit today.

I was thinking that all is well for that stock in the long term. People will get back on boats, and they are one of the ones that will survive. I was trying to decide when to buy more.

Then I remembered litigation. A bunch of Americans were sorely inconvenienced by a disease, so you can bet that there will be lawsuits, and big ones. They wouldn't be the first to be bankrupted by liability claims.

Oh, well. I'm still keeping my shares, just because they've lost so much value already that losing the remaining wouldn't be a gigantic hit. (I know a guy who won a Nobel Prize for his papers on why people do that sort of thing. It's not really rational, but it's documentable.) For me, I figure that those shares will either double, at least, or drop to zero.


I'll be looking to buy other stocks soon.

Last edited by Meadmaker; 12th March 2020 at 08:09 PM.
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Old 12th March 2020, 07:59 PM   #298
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Looks like all major sports leagues are canceling sporting events until further notice.
That's a bit of a story in Aussie at the moment, because they're not. (Nor is NZ)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...lic-gatherings
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Old 12th March 2020, 08:42 PM   #299
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That's a bit of a story in Aussie at the moment, because they're not. (Nor is NZ)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...lic-gatherings
Honestly, it kind of seems like an overreaction to me, but maybe it's necessary. In the US, at least, it seems to be all the major sports. How long it will last, I don't know.

https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id...actions-sports

But it's still summer down there, isn't it?
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Old 12th March 2020, 08:50 PM   #300
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Honestly, it kind of seems like an overreaction to me, but maybe it's necessary. In the US, at least, it seems to be all the major sports. How long it will last, I don't know.

https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id...actions-sports

But it's still summer down there, isn't it?
The biggest news is that the entire FIRST Robotics season has been cancelled.


Ok, so, maybe my interests aren't quite mainstream, but it ought to be at least news.
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Old 12th March 2020, 10:35 PM   #301
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The robots are going to catch a virus?
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Old 12th March 2020, 11:16 PM   #302
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Honestly, it kind of seems like an overreaction to me, but maybe it's necessary. In the US, at least, it seems to be all the major sports. How long it will last, I don't know.

https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id...actions-sports

But it's still summer down there, isn't it?
Yes, it is summer, but there's no proof it's season-specific at this stage.

I suspect it is, but with something that causes chaos so quickly, why not just take the path of caution.

We have rugby on tonight, but hardly any people go to the games, so that will be fine.
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I see Dow futures got down to 20,230 before a dead cat turned up and they're now up 400-ish.

I have to say, I think the selling is about due to finish. The world isn't going to end, things will return to normal, and governments have organised suitable aid packages, so there's still value in the assets.

We must be nearing ground zero where it is now.
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Old 13th March 2020, 03:33 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
My silver lining is that last year my family was trying to get me to take out student loans and invest the money, and I didn't.
Wait, what?! Use notoriously strict about repayment student loans for gambling? I don't think I'd take any money advice from your family! That's absolutely crazy!

My last roommate used his student loan money to try to flip an expensive used car and got burned on the deal, losing the car. He then honestly expected me to loan him the money to repay his loan. It would have been 100% of my life savings at that point. It's why he was the last roommate I ever had.
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Old 13th March 2020, 12:16 PM   #304
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Most major film studios announced suspension of all production for films being made in the US.
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Old 13th March 2020, 01:23 PM   #305
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Yep, and the Dow is up 10% on...... I'm not sure what it's up on, actually.

Trump's calling an emergency isn't going to make it go away.
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Old 13th March 2020, 01:56 PM   #306
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yep, and the Dow is up 10% on...... I'm not sure what it's up on, actually.

Trump's calling an emergency isn't going to make it go away.
Market had already gone up 4% today on expectation of Trump declaring a "National Emergency." In the first few minutes after he started speaking it was clear he was very uncomfortable reading the script he had and wandered around a bit. The market gain dropped to 2%. But then he brought in others and it became clearer that he/they were finally acknowledging the testing fiasco and had taken steps to clear the regulatory restrictions. They also injected a bit of reality suggesting. Mitigation was stressed, new google website is rolling out so people can go through a checklist and, if indicated find local drive through testing in affected areas. Apparently in Target and Walmart parking lots. Supposed to be up and running in a week.

Suggestions of various economic supports to be rolled out in the next few days but with minimal specifics. Kind of thing that markets like to hear.

Market responded positively to all that and was up 10% when all was said and done.

Of course it also had a lot of blather about how great our system is and Pence kissing Trump up like there was no tomorrow. Dr. Fauci spoke a bit. Seemed hopeful mitigation efforts could turn things around in 8-9 weeks but couldn't state a number since the information simply isn't available to make any realistic estimate. Easily the most cogent and rational person there. Surprised he hadn't been fired since he stood out as a critical voice this week.

Going to be ugly when the Q1 earnings numbers start to come in next month and the warnings before that.
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Old 13th March 2020, 02:04 PM   #307
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yep, and the Dow is up 10% on...... I'm not sure what it's up on, actually.

Trump's calling an emergency isn't going to make it go away.
The biggest announcement that mattered today was an fda approved test that could greatly increase detection. That's a pretty big deal.
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Old 13th March 2020, 04:33 PM   #308
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Suggestions of various economic supports to be rolled out in the next few days but with minimal specifics. Kind of thing that markets like to hear.

Market responded positively to all that and was up 10% when all was said and done.
I can only think of two words that fit the scenario of the market jump today: dead cat.

Nothing changed, $86B is a drop in several oceans, better testing will just create more shutdowns - the bad news on the virus itself will keep coming. Nothing he's done will stop the recession from hitting - it's all dreamer money and they'll get burned to a crisp is my guess.

Once the death machine starts rolling, the market will tank all over again. but hey, give them a couple of days of joy.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
Seemed hopeful mitigation efforts could turn things around in 8-9 weeks but couldn't state a number since the information simply isn't available to make any realistic estimate.
I call BS on that. The virus isn't going away. We won't stop this one like SARS 1.0.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
Going to be ugly when the Q1 earnings numbers start to come in next month and the warnings before that.
Yeah, I see recession after the June numbers and no way of avoiding it.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
The biggest announcement that mattered today was an fda approved test that could greatly increase detection. That's a pretty big deal.
Except it's not really.

As I just pointed out, early detection once the virus is out in the community - as it is now - will just slow economic activity. because factories and schools will shut, creating huge negatives for the overall economy.
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Old 13th March 2020, 04:44 PM   #309
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Except it's not really.

As I just pointed out, early detection once the virus is out in the community - as it is now - will just slow economic activity. because factories and schools will shut, creating huge negatives for the overall economy.
I think you're wrong. Assuming, of course, that the test is legitimate and can be administered in quantity.

As of today, if someone shows up to work with a cold, he is sent packing and told not to come back for two weeks.

After the test is widely available, he is sent packing, gets tested, and if the test comes back negative, he's back on the job.


Even more importantly, people are far less afraid to engage in commerce, like going to the store or a restaurant, because they can be confident that there isn't a lot of the virus in the wild.

And most importantly, if people get identified quickly, they don't spread the virus to as many people, and eventually the virus becomes background noise. Ultimately, what happens is that when someone is suspected of the virus, he gets tested, and then everyone he knows gets tested, and everyone who tests positive is quarantined, and the spread is stopped, or slowed drastically.

An actual effective test that could be administered to lots and lots of people would be a huge deal. I hope that's what this new test is.
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Old 13th March 2020, 05:14 PM   #310
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
And most importantly, if people get identified quickly, they don't spread the virus to as many people, and eventually the virus becomes background noise. Ultimately, what happens is that when someone is suspected of the virus, he gets tested, and then everyone he knows gets tested, and everyone who tests positive is quarantined, and the spread is stopped, or slowed drastically.
We appear to dealing with a virus that can be both asymptomatic and contagious in the same person, so I think that idea is moot.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
An actual effective test that could be administered to lots and lots of people would be a huge deal. I hope that's what this new test is.
It might well be - testing should be pretty simple, but until a lot have been done we won't have any idea about false readings, as have been found in many of the current versions.
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Old 13th March 2020, 06:10 PM   #311
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
We appear to dealing with a virus that can be both asymptomatic and contagious in the same person, so I think that idea is moot.



It might well be - testing should be pretty simple, but until a lot have been done we won't have any idea about false readings, as have been found in many of the current versions.
Indeed.

Hopefully, false positives, but probably false negatives, which would be worse than useless.

Ain't you just a bundle of joy. Realism is highly overrated.
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Old 13th March 2020, 06:28 PM   #312
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Ain't you just a bundle of joy. Realism is highly overrated.
Haha!

That's why churches exist and psychics find fools every day - the world is scary when you don't sugar-coat it.
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Old 13th March 2020, 08:07 PM   #313
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I can only think of two words that fit the scenario of the market jump today: dead cat.
Yeah, but it will take a bit of time to retrain peeps to sell the bumps instead of buy the dips.

Quote:
Nothing changed, $86B is a drop in several oceans, better testing will just create more shutdowns - the bad news on the virus itself will keep coming. Nothing he's done will stop the recession from hitting - it's all dreamer money and they'll get burned to a crisp is my guess.
Nah. Better testing will illuminate the problem, result in increased mitigation, and reduce R0. I suspect R0 has already been reduced in the USA just due to the media. There's already a lot less traffic and people aren't going to large assemblies anymore. The question is how much, not if. If it's down to 2, we would have a doubling every 10 days. At 3 it's about 6 days. If down to 1.5 it might only be every 20 days. Right now we have no idea because testing is so limited and surveillance testing is non-existent. But by March 31 it will be much clearer. With very limited info, my current SWAG for the USA is 10k infections but it could easily be 2k or 20k and probably 50% more in a week assuming R0 here now is 1.5, also a SWAG.

The real question is whether we can get it down < 1 without even more severe economic consequences. China eventually got it down to .3 in Wuhan which means new infections decrease by a factor of 3 every week. Impressive. But it's higher outside Wuhan though still < 1 from what I see. And production has started to ramp back up but not at the levels it was. Social distancing comes with a price and they will have to continue it for an indeterminate period. As will other countries. Alternately, a country can just let it burn through. While a biggie, it isn't really an existential threat and there may well be many countries that do that just through inaction.

Quote:
Yeah, I see recession after the June numbers and no way of avoiding it.
I don't either. Technically, a recession is two quarters with declining GDP. I think that's now baked in.
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Old 13th March 2020, 08:45 PM   #314
dudalb
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Indeed.

Hopefully, false positives, but probably false negatives, which would be worse than useless.

Ain't you just a bundle of joy. Realism is highly overrated.
I question if a lot of what is being poushed in this thread is "realism".
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Old 13th March 2020, 09:15 PM   #315
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Old 13th March 2020, 09:58 PM   #316
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Very good day to be too busy to enact that - TVIX currently at $400.

That's definitely my spot and the sale order is in.

I hope at least one of you got on!
.....
Missed the boat this time, but in case it happens again: Can you lock in your profits on this with a stop loss order? In other words, if you buy at, say, 40, and it goes up, can you protect yourself against a sudden reversal with a standing order to sell at 60, or whatever, maybe pushing it up as the price rises? You still have to decide when to bail, but could you protect yourself against getting wiped out? I note that yesterday it ranged from $320 to $432 and back to $357 in the space of six hours.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/TVIX
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Old 13th March 2020, 11:04 PM   #317
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Nah. Better testing will illuminate the problem, result in increased mitigation, and reduce R0.
I question whether the draconian measures enacted in China are possible in USA, but I guess time will tell. Seems to me it's a bit like NZ - too late to be really effective, but like lots of things with this little sucker, it's wait & see.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
The real question is whether we can get it down < 1 without even more severe economic consequences. China eventually got it down to .3 in Wuhan which means new infections decrease by a factor of 3 every week. Impressive. But it's higher outside Wuhan though still < 1 from what I see. And production has started to ramp back up but not at the levels it was. Social distancing comes with a price and they will have to continue it for an indeterminate period. As will other countries. Alternately, a country can just let it burn through. While a biggie, it isn't really an existential threat and there may well be many countries that do that just through inaction.
All of Africa, India, most of Asia - apart from the south-east - and most of Central & South America will follow the path of no resistance, which raises the problem of a really extended border restriction period.

Did you see the rules Chinese are using at work to keep a lid on infections? And how do schools fit into the mix? If kids are going to school, you're asking for a wide spread.

It'll be interesting to see which economies recover first - the ones that take 12-18 months to get through, or those that let it run wold for 3-4 months.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
I don't either. Technically, a recession is two quarters with declining GDP. I think that's now baked in.
Looks a certainty, and quite steep, too.

Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Missed the boat this time, but in case it happens again: Can you lock in your profits on this with a stop loss order? In other words, if you buy at, say, 40, and it goes up, can you protect yourself against a sudden reversal with a standing order to sell at 60, or whatever, maybe pushing it up as the price rises? You still have to decide when to bail, but could you protect yourself against getting wiped out? I note that yesterday it ranged from $320 to $432 and back to $357 in the space of six hours.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/TVIX
Sure you can - you can set the sell anywhere. Yeah, it's volatile alright!
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Old 14th March 2020, 08:55 AM   #318
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I question whether the draconian measures enacted in China are possible in USA, but I guess time will tell. Seems to me it's a bit like NZ - too late to be really effective, but like lots of things with this little sucker, it's wait & see.
I'm fairly optimistic though we lost a lot of time by not taking things seriously. This will produce larger numbers even if we do get R0 down. China's reports are pretty impressive. Social distancing works. There, new cases outside of Wuhan are now very low. A few orders of magnitude lower than those outside China.

Evolution in Action, as Pournelle and Niven used to say.

Looking out 6 months or so, it's quite possible the health impact will be relatively small overall here in comparison to, say, the flu, but the economic damage very high. I can see many people then claiming coronavirus was "fake news" and a plot to take down Trump.

What they won't see is what would have happened without the necessary social distancing with a million plus deaths.
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Old 14th March 2020, 09:31 AM   #319
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I'm fairly optimistic though we lost a lot of time by not taking things seriously. This will produce larger numbers even if we do get R0 down. China's reports are pretty impressive. Social distancing works. There, new cases outside of Wuhan are now very low. A few orders of magnitude lower than those outside China.

Evolution in Action, as Pournelle and Niven used to say.

Looking out 6 months or so, it's quite possible the health impact will be relatively small overall here in comparison to, say, the flu, but the economic damage very high. I can see many people then claiming coronavirus was "fake news" and a plot to take down Trump.

What they won't see is what would have happened without the necessary social distancing with a million plus deaths.
I listen to right wing talk radio. They're already saying it. Whether they continue to say it will depend on how it plays out.
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Old 14th March 2020, 09:55 AM   #320
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I listen to right wing talk radio. They're already saying it. Whether they continue to say it will depend on how it plays out.
I do as well. You can't understand trends w/o doing it. However, I've noted a decrease in the belief that it's "just the flu" and that will, in the short run continue because there will be rapid increases in coronavirus positives and subsequent deaths.

But as this gets under control, the totals may still be well below that of the flu while the economic damage will resonate for a much longer time.

So, in two or three months I expect that decrease will halt then produce an increase in the "fake news" claims and that it wasn't a big deal and it will be exacerbated by the very real economic damage.

People are idiots.
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