The World After Coronavirus

Some more predictions
1. More working from home.
2. People make an effort to know their neighbours.
3. People demanding more security. But not the sort that locks and guards provide.
4. Some people who said the virus is nothing have their careers ended.

Thanks for starting this. Wanted a thread like this.

Cheetah said:

It's pretty early to say, but I think it's going to pull us together as a whole. Also China is going to end up number one.

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I'll have a vote for "nothing changed".

The first thing that will happen when it ends is there will be a massive boom, millions of jobs to be filled, and immediate strong growth and everyone will go back to where they were quite quickly.

The desire to put it behind them will likely overcome any positive effects among the 95% of people who will have lived through the lockdowns and are pissed off at their financial losses.

There might be a backlash against the various populist movements.

All of them came to power on the "we'll do everything you like and nothing you don't like!" with a nice bit of xenophobia added.

But this crisis shows that while they are able to sponge off the successes of various more responsible governments, but they are abysmal at crisis management, and the virus is not spread by scary foreigners, but rather rich tourists ignoring safety precautions.

Lukraak_Sisser said:

There might be a backlash against the various populist movements.

All of them came to power on the "we'll do everything you like and nothing you don't like!" with a nice bit of xenophobia added.

But this crisis shows that while they are able to sponge off the successes of various more responsible governments, but they are abysmal at crisis management, and the virus is not spread by scary foreigners, but rather rich tourists ignoring safety precautions.

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The support was and is fear-based, not fact-based. That's why I doubt the crisis will have much of an effect on it. Chalk me up for "no change".

Trends towards dematerialization and local production will accelerate.
Health monitoring apps and devices will become commonplace.
The TSA will install heat cameras to identify travellers with a fever.

Will be good for Tories (UK), and Republicans (US). Similar to how 9/11 was good for Dubya.

We'll be great initially at addressing the issues it raises, but after a few years, we will likely return to old habits. A bit like how we a great at preventing the disaster that just happened.

The Atheist said:

I'll have a vote for "nothing changed".
The first thing that will happen when it ends is there will be a massive boom, millions of jobs to be filled, and immediate strong growth and everyone will go back to where they were quite quickly.

The desire to put it behind them will likely overcome any positive effects among the 95% of people who will have lived through the lockdowns and are pissed off at their financial losses.

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I vote for that - apart from I think we will see more working from home as I think the more sceptical and suspicious employers will realise they can save a lot of money by forcing employees to use their own resources rather than having to pay out for office costs.

In the fairly near term, half the independent restaurants in the country will go out of business.

I don't think anything will change.
It will all be forgotten in a few months when the next 'crisis' comes along.

No one thinks there will be a relative shift in power from the west to the east?
I think the US and Europe are probably going to take a bigger knock than Asia and take longer to recover.

I think we'll have to have a major re-design of almost every public washroom. For years we've had a trend towards increasingly skimpy automated sinks, soap dispensers and hot-air hand dryers, in the name of saving money. I knew they were inadequate for proper handwashing even before all this came about, and now, with the prevalence of all the warnings about needing to wash your hands properly, more people will become aware of this issue.

I suspect there will be a public demand to rip out all the crap sinks that are out there, and put in something that actually lets you wash your hands properly. It could even be a part of a public works program to help kick-start the economy. Pay businesses to hire plumbers to do all this work.

The world after COVID-19.

There will probably always be new coronaviruses popping up from the local mammalian wildlife.

Trebuchet said:

In the fairly near term, half the independent restaurants in the country will go out of business.

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No they won’t, the government support from one off grants to 25,000, tax bills deferred for many months or entirely waived , interest free state backed loans with long repayment deferents, to supporting 80% of salaries and so on means there is no reason at all for any restaurant, pub or cafe to go out of business.

They haven't said how to apply yet though

eta

I spoke too soon there is info on the gov.uk website

Local authorities will get in touch with businesses.

Darat said:

No they won’t, the government support from one off grants to 25,000, tax bills deferred for many months or entirely waived , interest free state backed loans with long repayment deferents, to supporting 80% of salaries and so on means there is no reason at all for any restaurant, pub or cafe to go out of business.

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I was talking about a different country! We'll see.

Another vote for "nothing"

The narrative will be "we have to go back to normal as part of the healing process" kind of thing.

Some minor things are inevitable (some businesses will not come back from this) and "pandemic" will just incorporated into our national "Be prepared" mindset the same way Y2K was.

But any big, organized change? Nope.

Darat said:

No they won’t, the government support from one off grants to 25,000

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Not sure what this number represents. Is that grants for up to 25,000 businesses? Or is that business grants for up to £25,000 each?

supporting 80% of salaries and so on means there is no reason at all for any restaurant, pub or cafe to go out of business.

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I assume that you are talking about paying 80% of the salaries of a restaurant's staff. But will the government pay 80% of the "salary" of the restaurant owner?

William Parcher said:

Not sure what this number represents. Is that grants for up to 25,000 businesses? Or is that business grants for up to £25,000 each?





I assume that you are talking about paying 80% of the salaries of a restaurant's staff. But will the government pay 80% of the "salary" of the restaurant owner?

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Upto £25000 per business. Would depend on how the business is structured. If the owner is on PAYE then yes.

Horatius said:

I think we'll have to have a major re-design of almost every public washroom. For years we've had a trend towards increasingly skimpy automated sinks, soap dispensers and hot-air hand dryers, in the name of saving money. I knew they were inadequate for proper handwashing even before all this came about, and now, with the prevalence of all the warnings about needing to wash your hands properly, more people will become aware of this issue.

I suspect there will be a public demand to rip out all the crap sinks that are out there, and put in something that actually lets you wash your hands properly. It could even be a part of a public works program to help kick-start the economy. Pay businesses to hire plumbers to do all this work.

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There should be portable hand-washing stations ion every downtown or well-strode street. I've seen them set up at county fairs and the like -- probably by the same company that provides the nearby porta-potties.

alfaniner said:

There should be portable hand-washing stations ion every downtown or well-strode street. I've seen them set up at county fairs and the like -- probably by the same company that provides the nearby porta-potties.

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I've seen those, and the ones I've seen are pretty crap as well.

They look like they're more likely to spread disease than contain it.

Cheetah said:

No one thinks there will be a relative shift in power from the west to the east?
I think the US and Europe are probably going to take a bigger knock than Asia and take longer to recover.

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I'm with you on this one.

Western countries like to think of themselves as indestructible with the ability to easily bounce back (hubris), but this slap to the global economy is going to reveal just how vulnerable and unstable our systems really are and really have been for decades. We've been kicking the can down the road (since at least the 80's) of what's inevitable.... a huge economic reset (crash, burn, recover). The chickens are coming home to roost while our countries continue to pretend they don't hear the clucking in the distance. We're all going to feel the economic pain of this for quite some time, but I think the US is going to take the biggest hit and won't be coming out at the other end of this thing in the same position on the world stage as they were going in.

This drastic kick to the pants of the US is what, I believe, will cause a big shift in economic strengths, from west to east. It's been teetering on that for quite a while now, all it needed was one more little nudge. I think that nudge is here.


My prediction:

High-risk digital gambling as a means of keeping the economy afloat is coming to an end. Tangible supply and demand is going to make a comeback (a new modern day high-tech 'industrial age', per se) within about 3-5 years.

Goodbye hedging, hello hoverboards.

I think China will be the big winner here. Many other countries will have huge debts. ON the other hand there will be a huge amount of work that is needed to done, so that will generate employment.

rjh01 said:

I think China will be the big winner here. Many other countries will have huge debts. ON the other hand there will be a huge amount of work that is needed to done, so that will generate employment.

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They already are.

I saw a graph today that shows their Beijing workforce is about 95% returned to work.

They're confidently predicting a return to growth in Q2, and they certainly haven't had the -24% downturn Goldmans are picking for USA.

I'm not so bullish on China: the way they dealt with the crisis makes it susceptible to future waves of infection - we will see more outbreaks in the future, causing more pauses in the economy.
and China is already projecting all the power it reasonably can without increasing its military budget by a couple of orders of magnitude.
China will transform from a net exporter to a more balanced budget, which will slow growth.
The world will move to Africa for the next generation of sweatshops.

I wonder if the push towards automation will accelerate as companies come to realise that the weakest link in their chains is the workers who are vulnerable, can be unreliable, and require payment.

I also wonder if we might see the introduction of a universal income of some kind. It's possible that this will be introduced in some countries simply to keep the economy afloat over the months that this crisis is still a crisis. The US is inching towards that, ever so slightly. The UK is paying businesses rather than workers, but the idea isn't that far away. And once the idea has been introduced and shown to be viable, then it may not go away quite as easily - especially when coupled with a reduction of the labour force. I think a universal income has been a question of "when" rather than "if" for a while now, and I wonder if this crisis will accelerate us towards that.

I think there's a possibility that the NHS will come out the other side of this stronger than it has been in years. I think that the defunding, lay-offs, and the stealth privatisation has been a bad idea over the years, and I think that perhaps the Tories have started to realise this over the last week or two. There's a quote from Matt Hancock from a few days ago where he said that the crisis has made it clear to him that after this is all over he's going to have to look at making changes to the NHS. Usually coming from a Tory that would be terrifying, but I think that he might actually genuinely mean that he wants to strengthen it, rather than sell it off for profit.

The UK will be harder hit than Italy. We've got roughly the same size population and population density, and we've got roughly the same percentage of over 65s in our population. Our death curve (how many deaths measured against time since the first death) is identical so far. However we're doing less than Italy did (to have our first lock down occur at the same time as Italy's first it'd have to happen tomorrow), the public are not taking it seriously in the same way that Italy's didn't, and Italy ranks near the bottom in terms of obesity in European countries and the UK ranks near the top.

And I'm not basing this on much at all, but it's clear that global power structures are going to be in flux for a while, which makes me wonder how Putin is going to try to turn it all to his advantage. He's already sent aid to Italy. I doubt that that's pure humanitarianism on his behalf. I expect that Russia will end up more powerful than it is now. This may well lead to more naked aggression and military invasions, although I expect more subtle political manoeuvres, too.

Oh, and I expect that when the dust settles China will be the world's #1 superpower.

AnonyMoose said:

High-risk digital gambling as a means of keeping the economy afloat is coming to an end. Tangible supply and demand is going to make a comeback (a new modern day high-tech 'industrial age', per se) within about 3-5 years.

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Yeah, I think the UK at least will rediscover the benefits of a manufacturing base. Couple the current economic crisis with Brexit, the general instability of international supply chains, and China's likely new economic power, and the government may just realise that making and selling stuff is more stable.

I also wonder whether this will ultimately work out well for the Tories. There's 5 years until another election, in which time the crisis will likely have been over for a while (which isn't to say that coronavirus itself will necessarily be gone, but we likely won't see what we're seeing now and the worse that is to come). It could be long enough since the outbreak for people to forget the mismanagement (especially given that the public itself is not yet taking this seriously), and any good to come out of it* is something they can brag about and which people can attribute to them.

*a rise in employment from the low, perhaps fuelled by a return of manufacturing jobs; a stronger NHS; perhaps a universal income

The Great Zaganza said:

I'm not so bullish on China: the way they dealt with the crisis makes it susceptible to future waves of infection - we will see more outbreaks in the future, causing more pauses in the economy.

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But I imagine that they will be prepared for those, and will crack down extremely quickly. I don't think the economic hit will be anywhere near as large in the future as it was this time around.

And I think that everywhere will see future waves of infection. Experts seem to broadly agree that the virus is likely to be with us for a long time, or even forever, like flu.

The question isn't who gets them, but who is best prepared. I see no reason to suppose that any countries will be better prepared than East Asian ones. And China's more dictatorial regime makes it easier for them to implement harsher measures more quickly with less protest from the populous, which makes it easier to halt the spread.

I DO think that the crisis will be the final nail in the coffin of the Dollar being the global standard currency.

Health screening and quarantine areas will be adopted in the West with thermal scans and AI checks. Nothing new for Asia.

Many shopping malls will throw in the towel and close.

The Great Zaganza said:

I DO think that the crisis will be the final nail in the coffin of the Dollar being the global standard currency.

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No sign of that yet, people are still turning to the dollar away from other currencies.

Some people are very optimistic.

Even “no change” seems optimistic to me.

I’m disappointed about how this could put back internationalization rather than fostering it. People in the west who may have been inclined to see a role for overseas aid, and eradicating extreme poverty are likely to feel their own economic security is far more precarious than they thought before.

But honestly, I’ve no idea.

I thought of something earlier today that was a real "yes, that'll definitely happen!" lightbulb, but it's gone completely out of my head by now.

That's not like you, SB. Perhaps you're a little distracted by events.

angrysoba said:

I’m disappointed about how this could put back internationalization rather than fostering it.

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Yes, this is quite likely. There's a reason people like Baylor are suddenly crowing much louder than usual. They see this as an opportunity to recruit a big batch of useful idiots.

Squeegee Beckenheim said:

The UK will be harder hit than Italy. We've got roughly the same size population and population density, and we've got roughly the same percentage of over 65s in our population. Our death curve (how many deaths measured against time since the first death) is identical so far. However we're doing less than Italy did (to have our first lock down occur at the same time as Italy's first it'd have to happen tomorrow), the public are not taking it seriously in the same way that Italy's didn't, and Italy ranks near the bottom in terms of obesity in European countries and the UK ranks near the top.

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Looks like the lockdown is happening. We have a lower rate of smoking that Italy, and smoking seems to be a major risk factor, but we also have lower ITU beds per capita, which is really bad. But yeah, out working today (and avoiding everyone) I was amazed by how many old people were out and about in the village.

Addressing a point in your post that I clipped for space, I'm concerned that while the government is doing a lot for businesses big and small, those of us who are self employed or on zero hours seem to be pretty much hanging in the wind.

I wonder if "The Prepper" mentality will be a little more mainstream.

I'm not talking (hopefully) about a rise in full on "Bunker out in the woods stocked with ammo and SPAM for when da Jews and Greys launch the New World Order" kind of nonsense, but if things like food and supply stashes become less fringe and more mainstream.

Like a year from now is an absolutely median of the bell curve, average boring suburban family with the metaphorical white picket fence and 2.3 adorable children talking openly about their "30 day emergency food stash" going to be seen as weird anymore?

If I survive this, I'm going to live my life to the fullest from then on.

Like this..

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1242438524567199745

Tory MP Edward Leigh suggests a universal basic income to help the self-employed. "Just get on with it" #RedEd

We're living in very strange times.

#selfemployed #COVIDー19 @EdwardLeighMP

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Doesn't seem to get much traction just yet, but it's definitely an idea that's being floated. I definitely think it's something that's going to materialise at some point, and I suspect that this crisis has shortened that time scale, however long that ends up being.

JoeMorgue said:

I wonder if "The Prepper" mentality will be a little more mainstream.

I'm not talking (hopefully) about a rise in full on "Bunker out in the woods stocked with ammo and SPAM for when da Jews and Greys launch the New World Order" kind of nonsense, but if things like food and supply stashes become less fringe and more mainstream.

Like a year from now is an absolutely median of the bell curve, average boring suburban family with the metaphorical white picket fence and 2.3 adorable children talking openly about their "30 day emergency food stash" going to be seen as weird anymore?

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It's definitely moving a little towards that now, and it's not really a new idea, but one that's coming back around. It used to be very common to do a big weekly shop, and to have a big supply of things just sitting around in your cupboards (or larders, if you're posh). These days it's more common to just go out and buy what you need when you need it, but the current advice is to go shopping once a week and buy what you need for the entire week.

It's not quite what you're talking about, but it's not a million miles away, either.