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Old 27th March 2020, 04:13 PM   #1
Horatius
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COVID-19 Numbers, Canada vs. The US

I'm (mostly) copying a post I just made on Facebook here, because I'd like to see what you lot think.

*****

So, 12 days ago, I posted about the exponential nature of the numbers associated with this pandemic:

https://www.macleans.ca/society/heal...WGSSnz2gMXO6Ow

At the time, I estimated the doubling time in Canada was about every 4 days, and so we'd have to wait 8 to 12 days to see if our efforts were having any effect. Well, there's good news and bad, folks.

The good news is, we can absolutely see a change in the Canadian numbers! You can see the graphs here:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/canada/

They break it down into total cases, new cases, and deaths. In all three instances, you can see that the exponential curve has flattened out. We're still seeing new cases every day, but the number of new cases is roughly the same each day - the rate is not accelerating, which is really good news, compared to what we were seeing 12 days ago. Go Team Canada, Great Work!

The bad news comes when you compare the Canadian numbers to the US numbers. See the same data for the US here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

All three of those curves are still exponential. All Three. That is a critical observation, because it means the increasing number of new cases likely isn't just a matter of the US testing more people now. The number of deaths would likely be independent of the number of tests, and it is following the same type of curve. This tells me that the US efforts are not having the same effect as the Canadian efforts.

And since we're right next to them on this continent, that's probably not good news for us. At this point I don't want to try to predict exactly where this is going to go, because now it's outside the realm of science and math. Now it's down to people, and how they react, and I've given up trying to figure out what some of the people in charge down there are thinking. But if I were a betting man (and I am), I'd put my money on things getting a lot worse before they get better.

Hang on fellow Canucks, it's going to be a bumpy ride, despite all our best efforts.

*****


Comments?
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Old 27th March 2020, 04:58 PM   #2
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I find none of this surprising, to be perfectly honest.


Pulling a number out of my arse, here's my guess on why that is:

70% of Canadians: "Scientists tell us to stay home, avoid other people, and wash our hands for as long as it takes to 'flatten the curve'. So that's what we'll do."

70% of Americans: "But, ma freedoms!"


Generally speaking, Americans tend to put a lot more emphasis on individual freedoms above all other things to the point of cutting off one's own nose, if necessary. It's a culture thing that's been ingrained since birth. So it doesn't really come as a surprise that so many of them are fighting against what scientists are advising.... they see it as an 'infringement' on their personal freedom to choose for themselves how they want to handle this situation. Near-sighted, rather than far-sighted.

So from that point if view, I see these US soldiers being on our border as a good thing. Keeping 'unwanteds' from crossing the border.... works in both directions. Thanks Trump.






Unfortunately, SARS-CoV-2 (aka CoV-fefe) doesn't recognize borders.

So to reiterate your sentiments on the matter: ****
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Old 27th March 2020, 07:25 PM   #3
Horatius
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Originally Posted by AnonyMoose View Post
I find none of this surprising, to be perfectly honest.

Pulling a number out of my arse, here's my guess on why that is:

70% of Canadians: "Scientists tell us to stay home, avoid other people, and wash our hands for as long as it takes to 'flatten the curve'. So that's what we'll do."

70% of Americans: "But, ma freedoms!"


Yeah, I'm not too surprised either. Just from watching the response to calls for action in the US, you could tell far too many people weren't taking it seriously enough to have the intended effect. From attending spring break and Mardi Gras, to various states refusing to issue shutdown orders, to various people talking about suing the government over these orders, it was obvious that not enough people were going to do the hard work needed to have a significant effect.

But at the end of the day, the virus will do what it will do, and those who refuse to act accordingly are going to pay a price, as will anyone else that they interact with.

This is what I posted on Facebook as a follow-up comment:

****

We're literally watching a world-wide, real-time experiment that compares the effects of different strategies on the spread of a pandemic. Click around on that world of meters site, and see. Compare the UK and Italy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

As badly hit as Italy was at the beginning, you can see their trends starting to improve. Meanwhile the UK, which did almost nothing until this week, is still exponential. This isn't just Canada vs. the US, this is science based policy vs. making it up as you go along.

****

This pandemic is going to be studied by epidemiologists for literally centuries to come, if not longer. Let's hope the lessons we learn in the next few months stick long enough to be worth the price we're going to pay to learn them.
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Old 27th March 2020, 08:12 PM   #4
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The only thing we can know for sure right now is that our countries will not be making the same mistakes again like they have with this pandemic. Unfortunately it will be at the cost of lives.

But then again... history shows us that this is just more of the same old, same old (nations making mistakes at the cost of the lives of its people). So we may very well be singing this same song yet again if any of us lives long enough to see the next pandemic hit our species.

****
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Old 28th March 2020, 04:59 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by AnonyMoose View Post
It's a culture thing that's been ingrained since birth.
No it isn't.
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Old 1st April 2020, 11:58 PM   #6
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Response to a post originally in the main COVID-19 thread.

Originally Posted by ProBonoShill View Post
You keep making this comparisons as if they're somehow valid. The U.S is a far more populated country with a smaller landmass than Canada. Using population density as a sole metric is simply ignorant.
Except the population of Canada is concentrated along the Canada-US border. Go more than about 200 km north of the border and the population density drops off dramatically (exceptions: Saskatoon, Calgary, and Edmonton.) Therefore I'm comfortable with the comparison.

Let's compare populations the two largest cities in each country. The epicentre of the US outbreak is New York City. According to World population review, the population density of NYC is 26,403/square mile, or 10,194/km^2. The same site shows Toronto's density as 4,149/km^2, 40% less than New York's. As of April 2 (11:59pm), NYC has recorded 45,707 cases and 1,374 deaths. Toronto has seen 818 cases and 19 deaths. (Caution: the previous two sites are updated daily. Numbers quoted here are as of the time I wrote this post.)

This is where analysis gets tricky. I'm not experienced enough in statistics to know how a density will end up influencing outcomes. It's probably not linear like the 1:8.6 number I'm using for Canada:USA based on population, or a 1:3.5 number for Toronto:NYC based on population, or a 1:2.4 number for Toronto:NYC based on population density.

For Toronto:NYC the COVID-19 cases are running 1:55 and deaths are running 1:72. The NYC death ratio is twice that of Toronto's. It's interesting to note NYC's density is more than twice that of Toronto's, so density may have an effect here. ETA: Incorrect. See later post. This will likely be the subject of a few papers once the current emergency is over.

Quote:
Not to mention on a worldwide scale our southern neighbours while not doing the best have a much better survival rate than several European nations which get touted here as being far better off healthwise.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This point I can't argue with, aside from wondering if similar political differences are causing similar differences in death rates.

In my opinion, the major problem with my analysis is an uncertainty as to how far along the infection curve the US is compared to Italy and Canada. The first confirmed case in Italy was actually ten days after the first case in the US. However, the date to reach 100 cases was February 23 in Italy, March 4 in the US, and March 11 in Canada. The date to reach 100 deaths was March 4 in the Italy (10 days after 100 cases), March 18 in the USA, (14 days after 100 cases) and April 1 in Canada (21 days after 100 cases.)

These numbers actually support your contention that population density is a factor, in addition my idea that different approaches in between Canada and the US played a role.
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Last edited by Blue Mountain; 2nd April 2020 at 01:15 AM. Reason: TO:NYC population ratio is 1:3.5, not 1:3; add ETA
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Old 1st April 2020, 11:59 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
No it isn't.
Care to elaborate instead of just pigeoning the thread?
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Old 2nd April 2020, 12:45 AM   #8
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The current situation in Canada

Originally Posted by Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site
Province, territory or otherNumber of confirmed casesNumber of deaths 
British Columbia
1,066
25
 
Alberta
,754
9
 
Saskatchewan
193
3
 
Manitoba
127
1
 
Ontario
2,392
37
 
Quebec
4,611
33
 
New Brunswick
81
0
 
Nova Scotia
173
0
 
Prince Edward Island
21
0
 
Newfoundland and Labrador
175
1
 
Yukon
8
0
 
Northwest Territories
2
0
 
Nunavut
0
0
 
Repatriated travellers
13
0
 
Total
9,613
109
 
Confirmed cases are up 13% from yesterday (from 8,548); deaths are up 14% (from 96).


The latest points covered by CBC News

Now that I'm posting this report in an area that's not likely to be viewed by as many people, I've decided to drop this section. It took a fair amount of effort to put together. I'll reconsider if I get requests to restore it.


Growth curve

DateCasesChange
2020-03-13
155
 
2020-03-16
440
183.9%
2020-03-18
656
49.1%
2020-03-19
873
33.1%
2020-03-20
926
6.1%
2020-03-21
1,081
16.7%
2020-03-22
1,471
36.1%
2020-03-23
2,091
42.1%
2020-03-24
2,792
33.5%
2020-03-25
3,409
22.1%
2020-03-26
4,043
18.6%
2020-03-27
4,689
16.0%
2020-03-28
5,425
15.7%
2020-03-29
6,258
15.4%
2020-03-30
7,437
18.8%
2020-03-31
8,548
14.9%
2020-04-01
9,613
12.5%
The curve is showing continued signs of flattening out.


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric Canada Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio Actual US Number Actual Canada:US ratio Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests
256,933
2,209,623
1,230,519
1:4.7
1:4.5
COVID-19 cases
9,731
83,687
216,362
1:22
1:22
COVID-19 deaths
111
955
5,133
1:46
1:35

Observations:
  • The US is slowly but surely ramping up its testing
  • The ratio for cases in Canada compared to the USA remains steady at 1:22
  • The "death gap" widened to 1:46 (it was 1:35 yesterday), but that ratio is highy dependent on the number of deaths in Canada. If the number of Canadian deaths takes a jump the gap narrows again.
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The social illusion reigns to-day upon all the heaped-up ruins of the past, and to it belongs the future. The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Gustav Le Bon, The Crowd, 1895 (from the French)

Last edited by Blue Mountain; 2nd April 2020 at 12:46 AM.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 01:19 AM   #9
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Again as I expressed in the other thread simple 10:1 comparisons with regards to the U.S is foolhardy at best.

What parameters are at use?

Gun Ownership?

Pop Density?

Occupants per household?

Average age?

Soda Drinkers?

Poutine consumption?

Ice skaters vs dune buggy pilots?

I could on forever.

How many NHL players are Canadian?

How many PGA Golfers are American?

Grammy Winners?

Nobel Peace prize?

Get the point?
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Old 2nd April 2020, 01:57 AM   #10
Blue Mountain
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ProBonoShill has challenged my assumption that the infection and morality rate differences between Canada and the US are due only to faster and more concise action on the part of the Canadian government. ProBonoShill notes that Canada's population density is much lower than the States, which is true to a point. I'm not sure what the density numbers would be if you took into account that a considerable percentage of Canada's population lives in a narrow strip of about 200 kilometres from the American border.

So I did some analysis on two major population centres: Toronto (population 6,196,731) and New York City (population 8,398,748.) Now, this may not be a fair comparison because NYC is the hardest hit city in the US. So what are the numbers as of today?
  • Toronto deaths: 19, or 0.3 per 100,000 population
  • New York City deaths: 1,374, or 16.3 per 100,000 population

NYC's rate is 48 times that of Toronto's. Is population density solely responsible for this?

Another comparison often made is Vancouver, BC (metro area population 2,463,431; 855/km^2) and Seattle, WA (metro area population 3,939,363; 185/km^2; both from Wikipedia.) Both cities are major gateways to international travel. However, it's possible the virus made it to Seattle before it got to Vancouver.
  • Vancouver deaths: 21, or 0.85 100,000 population
  • Seattle deaths: 164, or 4.16 per 100,000 population
King County's death rate is 4.8 times that of Vancouver's, despite having a much lower population density.

Admittedly these are two of the worst hit areas in the States, but I'm also comparing them to the two hardest hit areas in Canada.

Given that the majority of deaths are occurring in cities (because that's where the virus has the most opportunity to spread) and Canadian cities are faring better than American ones, do geography and population density play that much or a role in the differing numbers between Canada and the United States?
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The social illusion reigns to-day upon all the heaped-up ruins of the past, and to it belongs the future. The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Gustav Le Bon, The Crowd, 1895 (from the French)

Last edited by Blue Mountain; 2nd April 2020 at 02:01 AM.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 02:00 AM   #11
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It is a relatively small area in NY/NJ that has the bulk of the US cases (compared to the continental landmass!). Last I looked it was 100,000 cases just in that area. It skews the result.

The rest of the cases are spread out in pockets across the country. Canada has big cities and small towns just like the rest of the US, but there is only one mega city- NYC... and it is uniquely qualified to be a superspreader.

Take out NY and then compare again. Does the comparison still hold for the rest of the states?

I'm not saying the US is doing a good job...I know Calif has had a dismal response, testing just 900 of every million- and that is after we ramped up!. (It might actually be the worst rate in the country.) I am of the belief that weather/sun plays a role so I think southern areas will be luckier despite all the awful mismanagement.

California has only slightly more people than Canada, but I wouldn't compare the 2 because I think our latitude and location gives us an advantage. Our deaths are higher now, but may end up less than Canada, but not because of anything we did better.

Last edited by Sherkeu; 2nd April 2020 at 02:03 AM.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 02:11 AM   #12
Blue Mountain
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Originally Posted by ProBonoShill View Post
Again as I expressed in the other thread simple 10:1 comparisons with regards to the U.S is foolhardy at best.

What parameters are at use?

Gun Ownership?

Pop Density?

Occupants per household?

Average age?

Soda Drinkers?

Poutine consumption?

Ice skaters vs dune buggy pilots?

I could on forever.

How many NHL players are Canadian?

How many PGA Golfers are American?

Grammy Winners?

Nobel Peace prize?

Get the point?
To a degree, yes. But I'm not going to do your research for you. How about you hit Wikipedia and DuckDuckGo and check out the numbers for yourself?
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The social illusion reigns to-day upon all the heaped-up ruins of the past, and to it belongs the future. The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Gustav Le Bon, The Crowd, 1895 (from the French)
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Old 2nd April 2020, 02:49 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
It is a relatively small area in NY/NJ that has the bulk of the US cases (compared to the continental landmass!). Last I looked it was 100,000 cases just in that area. It skews the result.

The rest of the cases are spread out in pockets across the country. Canada has big cities and small towns just like the rest of the US, but there is only one mega city- NYC... and it is uniquely qualified to be a superspreader.

Take out NY and then compare again. Does the comparison still hold for the rest of the states?
Interesting point. According to Worldometer, New York and New Jersey combined have 106,156 cases and 2,574 deaths.

Totals, including New York and New Jersy

Metric Canada Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio Actual US Number Actual Canada:US ratio  
COVID-19 cases
9,731
83,687
216,362
1:22
 
COVID-19 deaths
111
955
5,133
1:46
 

Totals without the states of New York and New Jersey

Metric Canada Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio Adjusted US Number Actual Canada:US ratio  
COVID-19 cases
9,731
83,687
110,2206
1:11.8
 
COVID-19 deaths
111
955
2,559
1:23.1
 

Removing that enormous cluster on the densly populated eastern seaboard certainly helps the US numbers, but they're still not that great when compared with Canada's.

Totals without New York City (45,707 cases and 1,374 deaths)

Metric Canada Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio Adjusted US Number Actual Canada:US ratio  
COVID-19 cases
9,731
83,687
170,655
1:17.5
 
COVID-19 deaths
111
955
3,394
1:30.6
 

Even after taking out the "super-spreader" megacity, the death rate for the US overall compares poorly with Canada's: USA 10.3 per 1,000,000 population; Canada 2.9 per 1,000,000 population. (When NYC is included, the US death rate is 15.5 per million.)


Quote:
I'm not saying the US is doing a good job...I know Calif has had a dismal response, testing just 900 of every million- and that is after we ramped up!. (It might actually be the worst rate in the country.) I am of the belief that weather/sun plays a role so I think southern areas will be luckier despite all the awful mismanagement.

California has only slightly more people than Canada, but I wouldn't compare the 2 because I think our latitude and location gives us an advantage. Our deaths are higher now, but may end up less than Canada, but not because of anything we did better.
Correct; the population ratio of Canada:California (is that CA:CA? ) is 1:0.96, and your winters are much nicer! Right now the death count is running (Canada:California)=1:1.7, which is much better than the overall US numbers, with or without NY/NJ.
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Last edited by Blue Mountain; 2nd April 2020 at 03:24 AM. Reason: Update numbers and add table for total without NYC
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Old 2nd April 2020, 03:11 AM   #14
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Blue-

While you edit, please look at the USA adjusted death count. I think it was under by about 1000.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 03:24 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Blue-

While you edit, please look at the USA adjusted death count. I think it was under by about 1000.
Thanks for catching that. I've fixed the table.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 06:40 AM   #16
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The density of the population in NYC is remarkable. They reside like sardines in a can.

I have visited a few large cities in Canada (Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto) but the apparent "density of people" is not comparable to New York City.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 07:50 AM   #17
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my non-expert opinion on comparing different countries or even different states/provinces with a country:

Due to inconsistencies in when/where people are tested or not, I think a direct comparison (except perhaps by magnitude) of the numbers of "confirmed cases" isn't particularly helpful. Perhaps comparison by number of deaths is more appropriate, but then we have other complications like Italy just giving up on patients with lower chance of survival giving an inflated % compared to other places... this all seems very complicated.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 08:48 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post
  • Vancouver deaths: 21, or 0.85 100,000 population
  • Seattle deaths: 164, or 4.16 per 100,000 population
Regarding the Vancouver deaths, half of them were in one senior care centre in North Van. It's a good example of how contagious it is, and how vulnerable seniors are.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 12:13 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by pharphis View Post
my non-expert opinion on comparing different countries or even different states/provinces with a country:

Due to inconsistencies in when/where people are tested or not, I think a direct comparison (except perhaps by magnitude) of the numbers of "confirmed cases" isn't particularly helpful. Perhaps comparison by number of deaths is more appropriate, but then we have other complications like Italy just giving up on patients with lower chance of survival giving an inflated % compared to other places... this all seems very complicated.
Very much this. Testing varies considerably between districts. Here in Canada, Quebec has a much higher number of cases because they're testing more aggressively and declaring a "case" without waiting for confirmation from the national microbiology laboratory. However, the number of deaths isn't way out of line from the other provinces.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 01:28 AM   #20
Blue Mountain
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The current situation in Canada

Originally Posted by Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site
Province, territory or otherNumber of confirmed casesNumber of deaths 
British Columbia
1,066
31
 
Alberta
871
13
 
Saskatchewan
206
3
 
Manitoba
,1067
1
 
Ontario
2,793
53
 
Quebec
5,518
36
 
New Brunswick
91
0
 
Nova Scotia
193
0
 
Prince Edward Island
22
0
 
Newfoundland and Labrador
183
1
 
Yukon
6
0
 
Northwest Territories
2
0
 
Nunavut
0
0
 
Repatriated travellers
130
0
 
Total
1,1131
138
 
Confirmed cases are up 16% from yesterday (from 9,613); deaths are up 27% (from 109).


Growth curve

DateCasesChange
2020-03-13
155
 
2020-03-16
440
183.9%
2020-03-18
656
49.1%
2020-03-19
873
33.1%
2020-03-20
926
6.1%
2020-03-21
1,081
16.7%
2020-03-22
1,471
36.1%
2020-03-23
2,091
42.1%
2020-03-24
2,792
33.5%
2020-03-25
3,409
22.1%
2020-03-26
4,043
18.6%
2020-03-27
4,689
16.0%
2020-03-28
5,425
15.7%
2020-03-29
6,258
15.4%
2020-03-30
7,437
18.8%
2020-03-31
8,548
14.9%
2020-04-01
9,613
12.5%
2020-04-02
11,131
15.8%
Currently the growth curve is unsteady and hovering around the 15.5% mark. Not good, in my opinion, but I think Canada is now at the high point of the curve: we're seeing cases that have been incubating for about two weeks. Two weeks ago is about the time various provinces began more aggressive measures to slow the spread by closing schools and businesses, and cancelling events. Some provinces were slower to do this than others.


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 87) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

MetricCanadaExpected US number based on 1:8.6 ratioActual US NumberActual Canada:US ratioYesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests
280,550
2,412,730
1,350,219
1:4.8
1:4.7
COVID-19 cases
11,268
96,905
245,175
1:22
1:22
COVID-19 deaths
138
1,187
6,059
1:44
1:46

Per million population
Metric Canada United States
COVID-19 tests
7,403
4,114
COVID-19 cases
298.6
740.7
COVID-19 deaths
3.7
18.3
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Old 3rd April 2020, 02:04 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by pharphis View Post
my non-expert opinion on comparing different countries or even different states/provinces with a country:

Due to inconsistencies in when/where people are tested or not, I think a direct comparison (except perhaps by magnitude) of the numbers of "confirmed cases" isn't particularly helpful. Perhaps comparison by number of deaths is more appropriate, but then we have other complications like Italy just giving up on patients with lower chance of survival giving an inflated % compared to other places... this all seems very complicated.
I agree wholeheartedly about confirmed cases (in the UK, for example, only people admitted to hospital are being tested - a few exceptional cases aside).

But while I agree that there are complicating factors to using deaths as an indicator of how deadly the disease is in and of itself, it can be useful as an indicator of how well different countries are coping. Healthcare systems being overwhelmed and therefore people dying who otherwise would have lived would be a part of that.

Of course, even those figures won't be accurate. Not everybody who dies will be tested, and some authorities are failing to count some deaths. I've also seen reports of deliberate underreporting of deaths from both China and the US. And that's not to mention the increased death toll from fewer available doctors to take care of other patients and emergencies, suicides, vulnerable people left without care, etc.

So no figures are perfect, and none of them really encapsulate what's going on in the crisis, but I don't think it's unreasonable to compare countries by how many reported deaths there are.

Rate can also be instructional as a way of indicating how well measures to combat the virus are working (or how well the measures in place 4 weeks previously are working). Looking at the first chart here shows that the number of deaths in the US is doubling every 3 days, whereas in Canada it's doubling every 4 days. That shows that the crisis is less severe in Canada, even though things like population density will be a factor, rather than it purely being down to measures consciously taken. Although, of course, things like population density should factor into any government's response to a crisis such as this.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 04:45 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Of course, even those figures won't be accurate. Not everybody who dies will be tested, and some authorities are failing to count some deaths. I've also seen reports of deliberate underreporting of deaths from both China and the US. And that's not to mention the increased death toll from fewer available doctors to take care of other patients and emergencies, suicides, vulnerable people left without care, etc.


I'm also increasing concerned that the information we're getting just isn't very reliable, because of failures in the reporting systems. There was a report the other day that deaths as officially reported in Ontario may be low by a factor of two:

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/number-of...ting-1.4877627


Trying to make predictions or comparisons with bad data is a fools game. And the various numbers I've seen seem noisy enough to support the hypothesis that we're getting bad data. If you look at the daily death totals for Canada the last several days, you get a weird pattern of a couple of low days interspersed with one high day:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/canada/

That looks to me like some people dying on one day, but not being reported until a day or two later. That makes it hard to really get a feel for how the numbers are actually evolving. It looks like things are getting worse, but exactly how much worse is hard to determine.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 04:55 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
I'm also increasing concerned that the information we're getting just isn't very reliable, because of failures in the reporting systems. There was a report the other day that deaths as officially reported in Ontario may be low by a factor of two:

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/number-of...ting-1.4877627


Trying to make predictions or comparisons with bad data is a fools game. And the various numbers I've seen seem noisy enough to support the hypothesis that we're getting bad data. If you look at the daily death totals for Canada the last several days, you get a weird pattern of a couple of low days interspersed with one high day:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/canada/

That looks to me like some people dying on one day, but not being reported until a day or two later. That makes it hard to really get a feel for how the numbers are actually evolving. It looks like things are getting worse, but exactly how much worse is hard to determine.
Sure. But this kind of data really shouldn't be used for anything other than general trends, anyway. Looking at that data you can still see the general trend, even if the daily figures aren't reliable. And you shouldn't really be doing anything more than that, anyway.

Besides which, those numbers are currently low enough that you'd expect there to be a lot of fluctuation. When you're talking about 1 death going up to 4 and then back down again to 2 then there's nothing unusual about that. Even 5 to 24 to 12 isn't hugely anomalous, I'd have thought. Even 13 to 59 could be statistical noise.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 01:19 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
I'm also increasing concerned that the information we're getting just isn't very reliable, because of failures in the reporting systems. There was a report the other day that deaths as officially reported in Ontario may be low by a factor of two:

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/number-of...ting-1.4877627


Trying to make predictions or comparisons with bad data is a fools game. And the various numbers I've seen seem noisy enough to support the hypothesis that we're getting bad data. If you look at the daily death totals for Canada the last several days, you get a weird pattern of a couple of low days interspersed with one high day:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/canada/

That looks to me like some people dying on one day, but not being reported until a day or two later. That makes it hard to really get a feel for how the numbers are actually evolving. It looks like things are getting worse, but exactly how much worse is hard to determine.
The pattern you mentioned seems to be clustered around weekends, with the jump being recorded on Monday. My hypothesis is some (but not all?) deaths from Saturday and Sunday aren't included in provincial and federal government numbers until the deaths are recorded by the provincial vital statistics offices.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 01:24 PM   #25
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I'm going to note here that the confirmed first case was reported in the States on January 15, while the first confirmed case in Canada was January 25—a full ten days later. I'm saying "confirmed" because it's possible there were unconfirmed cases in both countries prior to those dates.

Worst case scenario is Canada's numbers are looking so much better compared to the States only because we're ten days behind American curve. We won't really know until at least the end of April and quite possibly some time in June.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 03:06 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post
I'm going to note here that the confirmed first case was reported in the States on January 15, while the first confirmed case in Canada was January 25—a full ten days later. I'm saying "confirmed" because it's possible there were unconfirmed cases in both countries prior to those dates.

Worst case scenario is Canada's numbers are looking so much better compared to the States only because we're ten days behind American curve. We won't really know until at least the end of April and quite possibly some time in June.
I wonder how many of people in the hot zone traveled north before Trudeau closed the border? (perhaps it was this influx in those few days that made Canada go 'oh crap! better close this down!'.)

Of course, Canadian citizens were always allowed to return. If there were a sizable amount, you'll see those extra cases begin to pop up in hospitals soon.
Actually, right around now.

Last edited by Sherkeu; 3rd April 2020 at 03:07 PM.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 03:25 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
The density of the population in NYC is remarkable. They reside like sardines in a can.

I have visited a few large cities in Canada (Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto) but the apparent "density of people" is not comparable to New York City.
Not by worldwide standards; it's not in the top fifty cities by population density.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 04:08 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
I wonder how many of people in the hot zone traveled north before Trudeau closed the border? (perhaps it was this influx in those few days that made Canada go 'oh crap! better close this down!'.)

Of course, Canadian citizens were always allowed to return. If there were a sizable amount, you'll see those extra cases begin to pop up in hospitals soon.
Actually, right around now.


That is certainly a factor. "Snowbirds" are a major phenomenon, and lots of them were in hard-hit areas like Florida, and had to drive all the way home. And lots of them were doing that in the first week or two after they started closing everything. They've been advised to self-isolate, but if they're already infected, that will show up in the numbers.

It's all a bit of a mess.

There was an interesting article written by someone caught up in all that:

https://www.macleans.ca/society/life...ity-of-canada/
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Old 3rd April 2020, 10:50 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
There was an interesting article written by someone caught up in all that:

https://www.macleans.ca/society/life...ity-of-canada/
Thanks for the link. Good article about his experience of driving from carefree to caution as he made his way north.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 11:17 PM   #30
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The current situation in Canada

Originally Posted by Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site
Province, territory or otherNumber of confirmed casesNumber of deaths 
British Columbia
1,174
35
 
Alberta
1,075
18
 
Saskatchewan
220
3
 
Manitoba
182
2
 
Ontario
3,255
67
 
Quebec
6,101
61
 
New Brunswick
95
0
 
Nova Scotia
207
0
 
Prince Edward Island
22
0
 
Newfoundland and Labrador
183
2
 
Yukon
6
0
 
Northwest Territories
4
0
 
Nunavut
0
0
 
Repatriated travellers
13
0
 
Total
12,537
187
 
Confirmed cases are up 13% from yesterday (from 11,131); deaths are up 36% (from 138).


Growth curve

DateCasesChange
2020-03-13
155
 
2020-03-16
440
183.9%
2020-03-18
656
49.1%
2020-03-19
873
33.1%
2020-03-20
926
6.1%
2020-03-21
1,081
16.7%
2020-03-22
1,471
36.1%
2020-03-23
2,091
42.1%
2020-03-24
2,792
33.5%
2020-03-25
3,409
22.1%
2020-03-26
4,043
18.6%
2020-03-27
4,689
16.0%
2020-03-28
5,425
15.7%
2020-03-29
6,258
15.4%
2020-03-30
7,437
18.8%
2020-03-31
8,548
14.9%
2020-04-01
9,613
12.5%
2020-04-02
11,131
15.8%
2020-04-03
12,537
12.6%


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

MetricCanadaExpected US number based on 1:8.6 ratioActual US NumberActual Canada:US ratioYesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests
302,745
2,603,607
1,469,251
1:4.9
1:4.8
COVID-19 cases
12,531
107,767
277,491
1:22
1:22
COVID-19 deaths
187
1,608
7,144
1:38
1:44

Per million population
Metric Canada United States
COVID-19 tests
7,989
4,476
COVID-19 cases
322
838
COVID-19 deaths
5.0
21.5
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Old 4th April 2020, 09:42 PM   #31
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The current situation in Canada

Originally Posted by Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site
Province, territory or otherNumber of confirmed casesNumber of deaths 
British Columbia
1,203
38
 
Alberta
1,075
18
 
Saskatchewan
231 3
  
Manitoba
194
2
 
Ontario
3,630
94
 
Quebec
6,997
75
 
New Brunswick
98
0
 
Nova Scotia
236
0
 
Prince Edward Island
22
0
 
Newfoundland and Labrador
195
  
Yukon
6
0
 
Northwest Territories
4
0
 
Nunavut
0
0
 
Repatriated travellers
13
0
 
Total
13,904
231
 
Confirmed cases are up 11% from yesterday (from 12,537); deaths are up 24% (from 187).


Growth curve

DateCasesChange
2020-03-13
155
 
2020-03-16
440
183.9%
2020-03-18
656
49.1%
2020-03-19
873
33.1%
2020-03-20
926
6.1%
2020-03-21
1,081
16.7%
2020-03-22
1,471
36.1%
2020-03-23
2,091
42.1%
2020-03-24
2,792
33.5%
2020-03-25
3,409
22.1%
2020-03-26
4,043
18.6%
2020-03-27
4,689
16.0%
2020-03-28
5,425
15.7%
2020-03-29
6,258
15.4%
2020-03-30
7,437
18.8%
2020-03-31
8,548
14.9%
2020-04-01
9,613
12.5%
2020-04-02
11,131
15.8%
2020-04-03
12,537
12.6%
2020-04-04
13,904
10.9%


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

MetricCanadaExpected US number based on 1:8.6 ratioActual US NumberActual Canada:US ratioYesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests
317,972
2,734,559
1,639,380
1:5.2
1:4.9
COVID-19 cases
14,000
120,400
310,016
1:22
1:22
COVID-19 deaths
233
2,004
8,438
1:36
1:38
What I find curious about the above table is that the United States has been ramping up its testing, but at the same time the number of cases compared to Canada remains steady at 1:22.

Per million population
Metric Canada United States
COVID-19 tests
8,391
4,994
COVID-19 cases
371
936
COVID-19 deaths
6.2
25.5
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Old 4th April 2020, 10:12 PM   #32
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A tale of two curves

One thing I've been concerned about when comparing the Canadian case count to the American count is the possibility Canada is up to ten days behind the American curve based on when the first case was seen in each country. So this evening I got the count data from the respective Wikipedia articles and created a side-by side comparison table.

Date Canadian cases (Change) American cases (change)
2020-01-21
1
n.a.
2020-01-22
1
=
2020-01-23
1
=
2020-01-24
2
+100%
2020-01-25
3
+50%
2020-01-26
5
+67%
2020-01-27
1
n.a.
5
=
2020-01-28
2
+100%
5
=
2020-01-29
2
=
5
=
2020-01-30
2
=
6
+20%
2020-01-31
3
+33%
7
+17%
2020-02-01
4
=
8
+14%
2020-02-02
4
=
11
+38%
2020-02-03
4
=
11
=
2020-02-04
5
+25%
11
=
2020-02-05
5
=
12
+9.1%
2020-02-06
7
+40%
12
=
2020-02-07
7
=
12
=
2020-02-08
7
=
12
=
2020-02-09
7
=
12
=
2020-02-10
7
=
12
=
2020-02-11
7
=
12
=
2020-02-12
7
=
12
=
2020-02-13
7
=
12
=
2020-02-14
8
+14%
12
=
2020-02-15
8
=
12
=
2020-02-16
8
=
12
=
2020-02-17
8
=
12
=
2020-02-18
8
=
12
=
2020-02-19
8
=
12
=
2020-02-20
9
+13%
14
+17%
2020-02-21
9
=
14
=
2020-02-22
9
=
14
=
2020-02-23
10
+11%
14
=
2020-02-24
11
+10%
14
=
2020-02-25
11
=
14
=
2020-02-26
12
+9%
15
+7.1%
2020-02-27
14
+17%
15
=
2020-02-28
16
+14%
19
+27%
2020-02-29
20
+25%
24
+26%
2020-03-01
24
+20%
42
+75%
2020-03-02
27
+13%
57
+36%
2020-03-03
33
+22%
85
+49%
2020-03-04
34
+3%
111
+31%
2020-03-05
48
+41%
175
+58%
2020-03-06
54
+13%
252
+44%
2020-03-07
60
+11%
353
+40%
2020-03-08
67
+12%
497
+41%
2020-03-09
79
+18%
645
+30%
2020-03-10
97
+23%
936
+45%
2020-03-11
118
+22%
1,205
+29%
2020-03-12
159
+35%
1,598
+33%
2020-03-13
198
+25%
2,163
+35%
2020-03-14
254
+28%
2,825
+31%
2020-03-15
338
+33%
3,501
+24%
2020-03-16
441
+30%
4,373
+25%
2020-03-17
598
+36%
5,664
+30%
2020-03-18
728
+22%
8,074
+43%
2020-03-19
873
+20%
12,022
+49%
2020-03-20
1,088
+25%
17,439
+45%
2020-03-21
1,331
+22%
23,710
+36%
2020-03-22
1,472
+11%
32,341
+36%
2020-03-23
2,091
+42%
42,751
+32%
2020-03-24
2,819
+35%
52,690
+23%
2020-03-25
3,409
+21%
64,916
+23%
2020-03-26
4,043
+19%
81,966
+26%
2020-03-27
4,757
+18%
101,012
+23%
2020-03-28
5,655
+19%
121,105
+20%
2020-03-29
6,320
+12%
140,223
+16%
2020-03-30
7,448
+18%
160,686
+15%
2020-03-31
8,591
+15%
186,082
+16%
2020-04-01
9,731
+13%
212,814
+14%
2020-04-02
11,285
+16%
241,626
+14%
2020-04-03
12,549
+11%
273,808
+13%

Things were pretty comparable between the two countries at the start. In fact, Canada showed a higher growth rate for the first month, from the initial case on January 27 all the way through to February 27, when the US numbers took off, and they haven't looked back ever since.

I suspect the different growth rates in February are a direct result of different testing strategies. Canada got on testing right away and stated testing probable cases and (possibly) contact tracing. By contrast, the US fumbled its testing all through February with a faulty test designed by the CDC and strict testing requirements. The new test was made available on February 29, with a ramp-up through March 12 as commercial labs were given the green light to test.

I still can't conclude that Canada and the US are on the same growth curve. I know Canada has been doing a lot more testing right from the start, so I suspect the early numbers for Canada's case count are more accurate than the States'. What I am seeing is that once the US got its act together on testing the numbers exploded. For the past week, though, the daily percentage increase between the two countries has been roughly parallel. That seems to say we're on the same curve.

I don't know how much of the blame for the CDC fumble can be allocated solely to the Trump administration. We can't rewind the clock to see what the outcome would have been had Hillary Clinton been in charge.
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Last edited by Blue Mountain; 4th April 2020 at 10:37 PM.
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Old 6th April 2020, 12:39 AM   #33
Blue Mountain
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The current situation in Canada

Originally Posted by Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site
Province, territory or otherNumber of confirmed casesNumber of deaths 
British Columbia
1,203
38
 
Alberta
1,250
23
 
Saskatchewan
249
3
 
Manitoba
203
2
 
Ontario
4,038
119
 
Quebec
7,944
94
 
New Brunswick
101
0
 
Nova Scotia
262
0
 
Prince Edward Island
22
0
 
Newfoundland and Labrador
217
1
 
Yukon
6
0
 
Northwest Territories
4
0
 
Nunavut
0
0
 
Repatriated travellers
13
0
 
Total
15,512
280
 
Confirmed cases are up 11.6% from yesterday (from 13,904); deaths are up 21% (from 231).


Growth curve

DateCasesChange
2020-03-09
79
 
2020-03-10
98
24.1%
2020-03-11
119
21.4%
2020-03-12
151
26.9%
2020-03-13
201
33.1%
2020-03-14
260
29.4%
2020-03-15
350
34.6%
2020-03-16
440
25.7%
2020-03-17
575
30.7%
2020-03-18
656
14.1%
2020-03-19
873
33.1%
2020-03-20
926
6.1%
2020-03-21
1,081
16.7%
2020-03-22
1,471
36.1%
2020-03-23
2,091
42.1%
2020-03-24
2,792
33.5%
2020-03-25
3,409
22.1%
2020-03-26
4,043
18.6%
2020-03-27
4,689
16.0%
2020-03-28
5,425
15.7%
2020-03-29
6,258
15.4%
2020-03-30
7,437
18.8%
2020-03-31
8,548
14.9%
2020-04-01
9,613
12.5%
2020-04-02
11,131
15.8%
2020-04-03
12,537
12.6%
2020-04-04
13,904
10.9%
2020-04-05
15,512
11.6%


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

MetricCanadaExpected US number based on 1:8.6 ratioActual US NumberActual Canada:US ratioYesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests
330,901
2,845,749
1,779,357
1:5.4
1:5.2
COVID-19 cases
15,494
133,248
337,278
1:21
1:22
COVID-19 deaths
280
2,408
9,637
1:33
1:36
For the first time the ratio of Canadian:US cases has decreased a little, from 1:22 to 1:21. This is likely the result of increased US testing finding additional tests.

Per million population
Metric Canada United States
COVID-19 tests
8,767
5,355
COVID-19 cases
411
1,018
COVID-19 deaths
7
29
__________________
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Old 6th April 2020, 01:07 AM   #34
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Mortality growth, Canada vs the USA

In this table, I've aligned the growth of cases and deaths since the fist confirmed death in each country. In the USA the first death occurred on February 29; the first Canadian death was ten days later on March 10.

The results are rather sobering.

Days since 1st death Canadian cases (Change) Canadian deaths (Change) American cases (change) American deaths (change)
0
97
+22.8%
1
24
+26.3%
1
1
118
+21.6%
1
=
42
+75.0%
2
+100.0%
2
159
+34.7%
2
+100.0%
57
+35.7%
6
+200.0%
3
198
+24.5%
2
=
85
+49.1%
9
+50.0%
4
254
+28.3%
3
+50.0%
111
+30.6%
11
+22.2%
5
338
+33.1%
4
+33.3%
175
+57.7%
11
=
6
441
+30.5%
6
+50.0%
252
+44.0%
14
+27.3%
7
598
+35.6%
7
+16.7%
353
+40.1%
19
+35.7%
8
728
+21.7%
9
+28.6%
497
+40.8%
21
+10.5%
9
873
+19.9%
10
+11.1%
645
+29.8%
26
+23.8%
10
1,088
+24.6%
12
+20.0%
936
+45.1%
31
+19.2%
11
1,331
+22.3%
13
+8.3%
1,205
+28.7%
37
+19.4%
12
1,472
+10.6%
20
+53.8%
1,598
+32.6%
41
+10.8%
13
2,091
+42.1%
24
+20.0%
2,163
+35.4%
49
+19.5%
14
2,819
+34.8%
27
+12.5%
2,825
+30.6%
56
+14.3%
15
3,409
+20.9%
35
+29.6%
3,501
+23.9%
62
+10.7%
16
4,043
+18.6%
39
+11.4%
4,373
+24.9%
76
+22.6%
17
4,757
+17.7%
53
+35.9%
5,664
+29.5%
97
+27.6%
18
5,655
+18.9%
60
+13.2%
8,074
+42.5%
123
+26.8%
19
6,320
+11.8%
61
+1.7%
12,022
+48.9%
175
+42.3%
20
7,448
+17.8%
89
+45.9%
17,439
+45.1%
230
+31.4%
21
8,591
+15.3%
96
+7.9%
23,710
+36.0%
298
+29.6%
22
9,731
+13.3%
109
+13.5%
32,341
+36.4%
408
+36.9%
23
11,285
+16.0%
138
+26.6%
42,751
+32.2%
519
+27.2%
24
12,549
+11.2%
187
+35.5%
52,690
+23.2%
681
+31.2%
25
14,018
+11.7%
231
+23.5%
64,916
+23.2%
906
+33.0%
26
81,966
+26.3%
1,159
+27.9%
27
101,012
+23.2%
1,592
+37.4%
28
121,105
+19.9%
2,039
+28.1%
29
140,223
+15.8%
2,431
+19.2%
30
160,686
+14.6%
2,985
+22.8%
31
186,082
+15.8%
3,806
+27.5%
32
212,814
+14.4%
4,746
+24.7%
33
241,626
+13.5%
5,821
+22.7%
34
273,808
+13.3%
7,007
+20.4%
35
307,036
+12.1%
8,352
+19.2%
  • It took the USA 18 days to get to 100 deaths, while it took Canada 22 days (a four day gap)
  • It took the USA 20 days to get to 200 deaths, while it took Canada 25 days (a five day gap)

Based on this table, Canada is likely three or four days behind the US curve with regards to deaths. One piece of good news is (as of right now) Canada's deaths are growing at a slower pace than the States'. But Canada can still expect a rather large toll before the emergency is over.
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Old 6th April 2020, 02:21 AM   #35
Sherkeu
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Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post
Based on this table, Canada is likely three or four days behind the US curve with regards to deaths. One piece of good news is (as of right now) Canada's deaths are growing at a slower pace than the States'. But Canada can still expect a rather large toll before the emergency is over.
Your timeline tables match the growth of cases in Calif. pretty well, and with populations that also match. It is almost exact!

Even so, Canada is higher now in new cases and new deaths than California ever was- or ever will be (IMO). California was hit first (not surprising given it is a larger hub of travel from initial outbreak areas) but Canada will soon overtake.

This virus likes the cold climates. There is not a single large international city with warm weather- even with their increased seasonal travel - that got hit hard with deaths per 100k residents like the colder northern cities.

Despite all the experience Toronto and Montreal had with SARS the first time around and their better responsive actions, the virus will still have a larger effect in those places. I think it is already baked in. I could be wrong but the numbers aren't telling me any different.
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Old 6th April 2020, 10:00 PM   #36
Blue Mountain
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The current situation in Canada

Originally Posted by Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site
Province, territory or otherNumber of confirmed casesNumber of deaths 
British Columbia
1,266
39
 
Alberta
1,348
24
 
Saskatchewan
253
3
 
Manitoba
204
2
 
Ontario
4,347
132
 
Quebec
8,580
121
 
New Brunswick
103
0
 
Nova Scotia
293
0
 
Prince Edward Island
22
0
 
Newfoundland and Labrador
226
2
 
Yukon
7
0
 
Northwest Territories
5
0
 
Nunavut
0
0
 
Repatriated travellers
13
0
 
Total
16,667
323
 
Confirmed cases are up 7.4% from yesterday (from 15,512); deaths are up 15.3% (from 280).


Growth curve

DateCasesChange
2020-03-09
79
 
2020-03-10
97
22.8%
2020-03-11
118
21.6%
2020-03-12
149
26.3%
2020-03-13
198
32.9%
2020-03-14
254
28.3%
2020-03-15
338
33.1%
2020-03-16
424
25.4%
2020-03-17
551
30.0%
2020-03-18
621
12.7%
2020-03-19
846
36.2%
2020-03-20
926
9.5%
2020-03-21
1,081
16.7%
2020-03-22
1,471
36.1%
2020-03-23
2,091
42.1%
2020-03-24
2,792
33.5%
2020-03-25
3,409
22.1%
2020-03-26
4,043
18.6%
2020-03-27
4,689
16.0%
2020-03-28
5,425
15.7%
2020-03-29
6,258
15.4%
2020-03-30
7,437
18.8%
2020-03-31
8,548
14.9%
2020-04-01
9,613
12.5%
2020-04-02
11,131
15.8%
2020-04-03
12,537
12.6%
2020-04-04
13,904
10.9%
2020-04-05
15,512
11.6%
2020-04-06
16,667
7.4%


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

MetricCanadaExpected US number based on 1:8.6 ratioActual US NumberActual Canada:US ratioYesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests
345,659
2,972,667
1,934,387
1:5.4
1:5.4
COVID-19 cases
16,653
143,215
367,461
1:22
1:21
COVID-19 deaths
323
2,778
10,910
1:34
1:33
1st death + 27 days
323
n/a
1,592
1:4.9
I've added a new row to this table that compares the number of deaths in Canada since the first recorded death with the same number in the United States at the same point in time. The 8.6 factor doesn't apply here because the growth rate is unaffected by the population. The percentage change each day is what it is; it doesn't matter if the country has 100,000 people or 1,000,000,000 people (although the country with 100,000 will quickly run out of people to infect.)

Per million population
Metric Canada United States
COVID-19 tests
9,158
5,844
COVID-19 cases
441
1,110
COVID-19 deaths
8.6
33.0
__________________
The social illusion reigns to-day upon all the heaped-up ruins of the past, and to it belongs the future. The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Gustav Le Bon, The Crowd, 1895 (from the French)
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Old 7th April 2020, 03:41 AM   #37
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Does anyone know about BCG uptake in Canada? There's some suggestive correlations between vaccination and reduced Covid-19 effects.
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Old 7th April 2020, 05:19 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Does anyone know about BCG uptake in Canada? There's some suggestive correlations between vaccination and reduced Covid-19 effects.
After a bit of Googling it appears that the BCG vaccine has not been given routinely in Canada for some decades. Going back fifty years, from personal experience, I know that testing for TB was recommended for individuals every few years (maybe annually? I remember being bugged by the company nurse to get retested on about that frequency). If you had actually been exposed to someone with TB you were vaccinated. Having been so exposed, I was last vaccinated around 1970. Again, going by Google, any effect/benefit will have worn off for now.

YMMV
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Old 8th April 2020, 12:09 AM   #39
Blue Mountain
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The current situation in Canada

Originally Posted by Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site
Province, territory or otherNumber of confirmed casesNumber of deaths 
British Columbia
1,291
43
 
Alberta
1,373
26
 
Saskatchewan
260
3
 
Manitoba
217
3
 
Ontario
4,726
153
 
Quebec
9,340
150
 
Newfoundland and Labrador
228
2
 
New Brunswick
105
0
 
Nova Scotia
310
0
 
Prince Edward Island
22
0
 
Yukon
7
0
 
Northwest Territories
5
0
 
Nunavut
0
0
 
Repatriated travellers
13
0
 
Canada
17,897
380
 
Confirmed cases are up 7.4% from yesterday (from 16,667); deaths are up 10.1% (from 345.)


Growth curve

DateCasesChange
2020-01-31
4
 
2020-02-08
7
75.0%
2020-02-16
8
14.3%
2020-02-21
9
12.5%
2020-02-24
10
11.1%
2020-02-25
11
10.0%
2020-02-26
12
9.1%
2020-02-27
13
8.3%
2020-02-29
15
15.4%
2020-03-01
24
60.0%
2020-03-03
33
37.5%
2020-03-05
45
36.4%
2020-03-06
51
13.3%
2020-03-07
57
11.8%
2020-03-08
62
8.8%
2020-03-09
77
24.2%
2020-03-11
103
33.8%
2020-03-12
141
36.9%
2020-03-13
179
27.0%
2020-03-14
199
11.2%
2020-03-15
253
27.1%
2020-03-16
341
34.8%
2020-03-17
440
29.0%
2020-03-18
597
35.7%
2020-03-19
873
46.2%
2020-03-20
1,004
15.0%
2020-03-21
1,371
36.6%
2020-03-22
1,471
7.3%
2020-03-23
2,091
42.1%
2020-03-24
2,792
33.5%
2020-03-25
3,409
22.1%
2020-03-26
4,043
18.6%
2020-03-27
4,689
16.0%
2020-03-28
5,425
15.7%
2020-03-29
6,258
15.4%
2020-03-30
7,437
18.8%
2020-03-31
8,548
14.9%
2020-04-01
9,613
12.5%
2020-04-02
11,283
17.4%
2020-04-03
12,537
11.1%
2020-04-04
13,904
10.9%
2020-04-05
15,512
11.6%
2020-04-06
16,667
7.4%
2020-04-07
17,897
7.4%

Starting with today's post, I'm using numbers from a CSV file provided by Public Health Canada.


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

MetricCanadaExpected US number based on 1:8.6 ratioActual US NumberActual Canada:US ratioYesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests
348,105
2,993,703
2,080,758
1:6.0
1:5.4
COVID-19 cases
17,897
153,914
401,608
1:22
1:22
COVID-19 deaths
380
3,268
12,902
1:34
1:34
1st death +28 days
380
n/a
2,039
1:5.4
1:4.9

Per million population
Metric Canada United States
COVID-19 tests
9,223
6,286
COVID-19 cases
474.2
1,213
COVID-19 deaths
10.1
40.0
__________________
The social illusion reigns to-day upon all the heaped-up ruins of the past, and to it belongs the future. The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Gustav Le Bon, The Crowd, 1895 (from the French)
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Old 8th April 2020, 10:11 PM   #40
Blue Mountain
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The current situation in Canada

Originally Posted by Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site
Province, territory or otherNumber of confirmed casesNumber of deaths 
British Columbia
1,336
48
 
Alberta
1,423
29
 
Saskatchewan
271
3
 
Manitoba
221
3
 
Ontario
5,276
174
 
Quebec
10,031
175
 
Newfoundland and Labrador
232
2
 
New Brunswick
108
0
 
Nova Scotia
342
1
 
Prince Edward Island
24
0
 
Yukon
7
0
 
Northwest Territories
5
0
 
Nunavut
0
0
 
Repatriated travellers
13
0
 
Canada
19,289
435
 
Confirmed cases are up 7.7% from yesterday (from 17,897); deaths are up 14.5% (from 380.) This is the third day in a row the case growth rate has been under 10%. The US growth rate has been under or at 10% for four days now, but is typically 1% above Canada's (except today, when it was 2.3% higher.)


Growth curve from the begnimng of March

DateCasesChange
2020-03-01
24
60.0%
2020-03-03
33
37.5%
2020-03-05
45
36.4%
2020-03-06
51
13.3%
2020-03-07
57
11.8%
2020-03-08
62
8.8%
2020-03-09
77
24.2%
2020-03-11
103
33.8%
2020-03-12
141
36.9%
2020-03-13
179
27.0%
2020-03-14
199
11.2%
2020-03-15
253
27.1%
2020-03-16
341
34.8%
2020-03-17
440
29.0%
2020-03-18
597
35.7%
2020-03-19
873
46.2%
2020-03-20
1,004
15.0%
2020-03-21
1,371
36.6%
2020-03-22
1,471
7.3%
2020-03-23
2,091
42.1%
2020-03-24
2,792
33.5%
2020-03-25
3,409
22.1%
2020-03-26
4,043
18.6%
2020-03-27
4,689
16.0%
2020-03-28
5,425
15.7%
2020-03-29
6,258
15.4%
2020-03-30
7,437
18.8%
2020-03-31
8,548
14.9%
2020-04-01
9,613
12.5%
2020-04-02
11,283
17.4%
2020-04-03
12,537
11.1%
2020-04-04
13,904
10.9%
2020-04-05
15,512
11.6%
2020-04-06
16,667
7.4%
2020-04-07
17,897
7.4%
2020-04-08
19,289
7.8%


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

MetricCanadaExpected US number based on 1:8.6 ratioActual US NumberActual Canada:US ratioYesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests
370,315
3,184,709
2,206,994
1:6.0
1:6.0
COVID-19 cases
19,277
165,782
434,114
1:23
1:22
COVID-19 deaths
435
3,741
14,800
1:34
1:34
1st death +29 days
435
n/a
2,431
1:5.6
1:5.4

Per million population
Metric Canada United States
COVID-19 tests
9,812
6,668
COVID-19 cases
511
1,312
COVID-19 deaths
11.5
44.7
__________________
The social illusion reigns to-day upon all the heaped-up ruins of the past, and to it belongs the future. The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Gustav Le Bon, The Crowd, 1895 (from the French)
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