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Old 3rd April 2020, 05:44 AM   #81
angrysoba
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
It will be interesting to see what happens in Australia as it starts to enter it’s winter flue season next month.

Widespread use of masks is a possible explanation for low infection rates in Japan, China, Hong Kong, etc.
My assumption all along has been that masks wouldn’t do much to protect people from the virus, but if everyone wears them it could significantly slow down the spread. I think the issue with trying this right now is that there are barely enough masks for medical staff who need them a lot more.
Yes, some countries got onto this very quickly.

Taiwan and South Korea, for example:

Quote:
Incheon’s 1,100 pharmacies, including Ms. Yoo’s, began to sell out of KF-94 face masks, the equivalent of the American N95. So did corner stores and large retail chains like E-Mart. As Koreans learned of the scale and aggressiveness of Covid-19, first from Chinese reports, then from a surge of cases at home, the mask with the weave and construction that proved most effective against the virus could not be found, except at exorbitant prices online. Customers grew angry waiting outside stores. One Incheon pharmacy posted a sign saying, “Regarding masks: Threats, physical violence and insults against employees are punishable under criminal law.”

Such was the extent of the “mask crisis” when the central government decided to intervene in production and distribution. At the end of February, it announced that it would purchase 50 percent of KF-94 masks from the nation’s 130 or so manufacturers. The government began to ship these masks, at a discounted price of 1,500 won each (about $1.23), to some 23,000 pharmacies, in cooperation with the Korean Pharmaceutical Association.

Pharmacies would earn no more than a few dozen cents on each sale — a few even reported losing money because of credit-card fees — but they embraced their role in the epidemic response. Licensed pharmacists were ideally placed to answer questions about Covid-19, give instructions on social distancing and proper use of masks, and refer sick people to field testing stations and hospitals. (In rural areas of South Korea, where there are fewer pharmacies, agricultural cooperative offices and post offices sell the face masks.)
But as has been mentioned on another thread, there have been a few countries in Europe such as Czech Republic, Bulgaria and (I think) Austria, where face mask-wearing has become either mandatory or very common. Unable to get hold of masks, people have been making masks themselves.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 06:33 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
My wife was just telling me about this theory.

It sounds...unlikely in my humble opinion.

France apparently had mandatory BGC from 1950-2007. But it also has a high death toll.

http://www.bcgatlas.org/
Similar to UK (1953-2005). Let's see if it gets through peer review.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 07:03 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
It is worth looking at the data with this site selecting the countries of interest, select cases and logarithmic view. Canada and Australia essentially track the same line as the US or spain or Italy. They are just a little earlier in their outbreak. (Australia may be dropping off the line a little.) South Korea clearly drops off the line (as does China if you include it) Japan drops off a bit but might be making its way back on to the same track as other countries. Hawaii is not tracked. You can also look at deaths, but the data are fewer but again Canada and Australia don't really stand out. Japan does a bit, but again South korea and China are the two who have really dropped off the curve.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
This is a very cool site, thank you!

Tracks for places with small numbers (so far) clearly show the effects of "small number statistics"; compare Finland to Germany for example.

The track for Singapore is somewhat concerning ... after apparently getting things under control, more recently it seems to be reverting to what one might call the "normal" one.

It's a pity data for Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau are not available (though Macau would be an extreme example of small numbers!).
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Old 3rd April 2020, 12:07 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
My wife was just telling me about this theory.

It sounds...unlikely in my humble opinion.

France apparently had mandatory BGC from 1950-2007. But it also has a high death toll.

http://www.bcgatlas.org/
Maybe it's a combination of things? Or just random chance working its mysterious way?

Still very early in the piece, and I'm waiting on time to produce results in other southern hemisphere countries, but it looks right now like the weather has an impact, but it might just be early on the curve.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 12:47 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There are some scientists looking at this very question and an osteopathic university in USA has come up with a suggestion BCG vaccination could be linked.

UK* might upset their theory, but worth a look: https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/severi...mn39DvVwyvg344

*Could also be a result of very low test numbers.

That should show up in UK deaths, as from 1953 to 2005 we had a universal BCG policy for all kids (usually around 13). Which would mean we should increases in fatalities in age groups (against countries with current universal BCG) for anyone born say before 1940 and anyone born after 1992.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 01:55 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
That should show up in UK deaths, as from 1953 to 2005 we had a universal BCG policy for all kids (usually around 13). Which would mean we should increases in fatalities in age groups (against countries with current universal BCG) for anyone born say before 1940 and anyone born after 1992.
Well, the ages certainly coincide with the death target for Covid-19. Another problem is the number of migrants, a significant portion of the population who probably haven't had the BCG injection.

I'm wondering if getting punched on the injection site might be a factor in NZ & Aussie's low numbers, because it was pretty compulsory for 4th & 5th formers to punch as many thirds in the arm as possible the day afterwards.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 02:58 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There are some scientists looking at this very question and an osteopathic university in USA has come up with a suggestion BCG vaccination could be linked.

UK* might upset their theory, but worth a look: https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/severi...mn39DvVwyvg344

*Could also be a result of very low test numbers.
Well that is very interesting.

The TB vaccine was mandatory when I was in High School (I had mine in 1976 IIRC)

And... The air force believed that I'd had TB as a child (lots of scarring in my lungs)

Could be good for me.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 03:14 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Well, the ages certainly coincide with the death target for Covid-19. Another problem is the number of migrants, a significant portion of the population who probably haven't had the BCG injection.

I'm wondering if getting punched on the injection site might be a factor in NZ & Aussie's low numbers, because it was pretty compulsory for 4th & 5th formers to punch as many thirds in the arm as possible the day afterwards.
A tradition that lives on to this day.

I have posted on this topic in the influenza thread about a year ago (or two even)...

... after having our flu vaccines, my former team amused themselves by punching each other (and me) in the arms.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 04:01 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
This is a very cool site, thank you!

Tracks for places with small numbers (so far) clearly show the effects of "small number statistics"; compare Finland to Germany for example.

The track for Singapore is somewhat concerning ... after apparently getting things under control, more recently it seems to be reverting to what one might call the "normal" one.

It's a pity data for Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau are not available (though Macau would be an extreme example of small numbers!).
Doh! Taiwan is on the list!
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Old 3rd April 2020, 04:05 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Well, the ages certainly coincide with the death target for Covid-19. Another problem is the number of migrants, a significant portion of the population who probably haven't had the BCG injection.

I'm wondering if getting punched on the injection site might be a factor in NZ & Aussie's low numbers, because it was pretty compulsory for 4th & 5th formers to punch as many thirds in the arm as possible the day afterwards.

As it was in the UK.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 05:23 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'm wondering if getting punched on the injection site might be a factor in NZ & Aussie's low numbers, because it was pretty compulsory for 4th & 5th formers to punch as many thirds in the arm as possible the day afterwards.
What does this mean in english? Or pidgin
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Old 3rd April 2020, 05:31 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
What does this mean in english? Or pidgin
Senior students bullying junior students. (By punching them in the arm after a vaccination).

My experience was, and still is, that this practice continues between peers. (Without the bullying component)
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Old 3rd April 2020, 07:45 PM   #93
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Ouch! That's funny though
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Old 3rd April 2020, 09:00 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
What does this mean in english? Or pidgin
Haha! I knew people outside the British Commonwealth would have no clue what that was about.
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Old 4th April 2020, 12:10 AM   #95
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From Dr Sid in the general Covid thread:

Quote:
Interesting .. seems like eastern side of iron curtain is somewhat more resistant. It's especially visible in Germany. Old Eastern Germany districts have much less cases.
And the idea is it's caused by TBC vaccines, which were mandatory in the East for much longer (till 2010 in Czech Republic). The mechanism is unclear, but that so called BCG vaccine is known to boost immune system in general. Netherlands is about to start blind study on medical personnel.
Another example is Portugal vs. Spain. Portugal used TBC vaccines, Spain did not.
I wasn't aware of any of that information, but it's a very interesting addition to the study posted.

The combination of BCG and vitamin D looks a winner at this stage, with Aussie & NZ way under the odds for mortality rates.
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Old 4th April 2020, 12:21 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Why are there so few cases in russia? Id say it was totally fake but theyve been sending supplies to the US!
the USSR send food when its people were starving to prove how well their economy was doing.

Russia is pretty much ****** when it comes to Corona, because no one trusts what the government says, full-stop.
They won't self-report, and they won't follow advise unless coerced to.
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Old 4th April 2020, 01:30 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
From Dr Sid in the general Covid thread:

Quote:
Interesting .. seems like eastern side of iron curtain is somewhat more resistant. It's especially visible in Germany. Old Eastern Germany districts have much less cases.
And the idea is it's caused by TBC vaccines, which were mandatory in the East for much longer (till 2010 in Czech Republic). The mechanism is unclear, but that so called BCG vaccine is known to boost immune system in general. Netherlands is about to start blind study on medical personnel.
Another example is Portugal vs. Spain. Portugal used TBC vaccines, Spain did not.
I wasn't aware of any of that information, but it's a very interesting addition to the study posted.

The combination of BCG and vitamin D looks a winner at this stage, with Aussie & NZ way under the odds for mortality rates.

They don't have as many rich people going to the alps to ski, which is how the virus got from Austria and Italy to Western Europe, so Western Europe got a head start.
More tourists from other European countries go to Spain than to Portugal. And the Portuguese tend to be poorer than Spaniards.
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Old 4th April 2020, 01:33 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Russia is pretty much ****** when it comes to Corona, because no one trusts what the government says, full-stop.
They won't self-report, and they won't follow advise unless coerced to.
I have to admit to having a chuckle when I saw their test numbers - a nice, round 500,000.

Totally not a made up number.

Originally Posted by dann View Post
More tourists from other European countries go to Spain than to Portugal. And the Portuguese tend to be poorer than Spaniards.
Once the virus spreads, countries soon catch up, so the number of tourists only affects the start date. The poorer population should mean a higher mortality rate, you'd think.
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Old 4th April 2020, 01:50 AM   #99
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This might be a bit of a thorn in the side of the BCG theory.

France had compulsory vaccination between 1950 & 2007. Mortality rate 8%
Norway had compulsory BCG from 1947 to 1995. MOrtality rate 1%

Norway has done 6 times more testing per capita than France, which could be a reason for the difference.
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Old 4th April 2020, 03:10 AM   #100
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I'm curious about that 104 year old man who survived hospitalization. Is there anything unusual about his lifestyle or diet? Or could it be that he got the 1918 flu and retained some resistance?
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Old 4th April 2020, 03:22 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
I'm curious about that 104 year old man who survived hospitalization. Is there anything unusual about his lifestyle or diet? Or could it be that he got the 1918 flu and retained some resistance?
What do you mean by resistance? If you mean immunity, then the answer is no, as flu has no serological cross-reactivity to SARS-COV-2.
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Old 4th April 2020, 03:27 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Or could it be that he got the 1918 flu and retained some resistance?
How would having the 1918 flu make you resistant to the 2019 novel coronavirus?
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Old 4th April 2020, 07:26 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
I'm curious about that 104 year old man who survived hospitalization. Is there anything unusual about his lifestyle or diet? Or could it be that he got the 1918 flu and retained some resistance?

The most unusual thing about his lifestyle is still having one at 104.
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Old 4th April 2020, 07:48 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
What do you mean by resistance? If you mean immunity, then the answer is no, as flu has no serological cross-reactivity to SARS-COV-2.
Doh! Stupid question!
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Old 4th April 2020, 07:55 AM   #105
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There's something fishy going on ...

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Norway has done 6 times more testing per capita than France, which could be a reason for the difference.

An odd but great story from the Faroe Islands (Wikipedia): The secret to the Faroe Islands' large number of corona tests (TMF, March 25, 2020)

Quote:
The Faroe Islands have tested the most per capita in the world, thanks to equipment purchased when the virus disease Infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) ravaged the country between 2000 and 2005.
“Whether it is a sample from a salmon or a sample from a human, it does not matter methodically,” said geneticist Debes Hammershaimb Christiansen in the Danish Food Inspection to DR.
Tests to detect ISA in salmon are now being used in the fight against the coronavirus in the Faroe Islands (Salmon Business, April 2, 2020)

Quote:
As a result, according to figures from the National Board of Health, about 8.3 percent of the Faroese population have been tested, making it the highest per capita for testing in the world.
In Denmark, approximately 0.4 percent have been tested.
Some 173 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the Faroe Islands, and so far no Faroese have died from the infection – thanks in part to rapid detection and containment.
Faroes the highest frequency coronavirus tester in the world (CphPost, April 3, 2020)

From salmon to coronavirus: Faroese food and veterinary agency joins ranks of labs changing mission - The country is testing 20 times more than Denmark. (IntraFish, April 2, 2020)


Three things are important here:

1) Test as many as possible!
2) Isolate the people tested positive!
3) When isolating, don't send them home to infect the other members of your household!


This is something that the Chinese have criticized Western countries for doing.
On the Faroe Islands, people who test positive for the virus are taken to a hotel used exclusively for this purpose!


So, The Atheist, fish are important in the fight against the coronavirus, but not because of vitamin D!
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; 4th April 2020 at 09:27 AM.
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Old 4th April 2020, 10:13 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The combination of BCG and vitamin D looks a winner at this stage
Right now I'm just trying isolation and my N95.
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Old 4th April 2020, 10:41 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I have to admit to having a chuckle when I saw their test numbers - a nice, round 500,000.

Totally not a made up number.
At first glance, I agree, but it could be possible that it's fairly accurate if they specifically formulated a goal of testing 500,000 people, or obtained 500,000 tests and used them all, or something like that.
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Old 4th April 2020, 11:48 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
On the Faroe Islands, people who test positive for the virus are taken to a hotel used exclusively for this purpose!


So, The Atheist, fish are important in the fight against the coronavirus, but not because of vitamin D!
Thanks for that - very entertaining, and I agree completely on sending people home to infect others.

It's fine if you're rich and have multiple bathrooms, but for people with a bit less, it's a guaranteed way to infect everyone.
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Old 4th April 2020, 11:55 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Thanks for that - very entertaining, and I agree completely on sending people home to infect others.

It's fine if you're rich and have multiple bathrooms, but for people with a bit less, it's a guaranteed way to infect everyone.

In particular if you have hired help to clean them for you. Have them wear hazmat suits so they don't infect your children when they're done cleaning.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 4th April 2020, 01:32 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Do you think all the medical staff do this every year?

Or do you think they're actors?

Do you think the entire working medical community has been fooled? Or are in on it? Or does this sort of thing every flu season but we just don't notice?


If you want to call the virus a hoax, or just 'normal flu', then you have to explain what's (apparently) going on in almost every hospital in almost every country in the world. How do you account for that?

The working explanation is that you're wrong.
Yes, I think this sort of thing goes on in hospitals every year, and have reams of articles from years past proving that it does. I'm happy to post links to dozens of them, if you'd like. Every year, worldwide, hospitals overwhelmed by flu patients, deaths, etc, resources maxed out, tents set up to accommodate the massive flow, etc. No, I don't think medical staff are actors. Yes, I think they've been fooled by hype and hysteria. Yes, I think this happens every year and we pay little attention. If the media started obsessively reporting every car crash in the world the same frenzy could be whipped up. Or if they began obsessively reporting and tracking all flu cases and deaths worldwide on an hourly basis. I do not think there is a conspiracy. I do think there is opportunism, as there always is. Medical orgs, as all orgs, love acquiring power, money, publicity, resourcea, attention and influence so it is in their interests to hype this up as much as possible.

Most of them believe it, too, so it's a feedback loop. Easy to believe what aligns with one's interests.

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Old 4th April 2020, 01:58 PM   #111
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Here are just a handful to start with. I can go on all day.

January 16, 2018, Los Angeles Times
California hospitals face a ‘war zone’ of flu patients — and are setting up tents to treat them
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/...htmlstory.html

Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, February 15, 2018
Overwhelmed' by flu patients, Columbus hospital opens portable clinic in parking lot
https://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news...200218759.html


CBS News, January 5, 2018
Overwhelmed by flu cases, some ERs turn ambulances away
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/overwhe...ay-california/


January 18, 2018, Time Magazine
Hospitals Overwhelmed by Flu Patients Are Treating Them in Tents
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-h...-flu-patients/


UPI, January 4, 2018
Hospitals overwhelmed by influx of flu patients
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2018...8171516800130/

Combine the fact that this happens every year with the hysteria causing everyone to prepare for an absolute disaster and you get what we're seeing. Mass effort to set up, in advance, all kinds of temporary/portable clinics, etc.

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Old 4th April 2020, 02:36 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Yes...
Actually no.

The point you're trying to make is irrelevant to this thread, so please carry it on elsewhere.

This thread is about anomalies between countries in the current pandemic.

Thanks.
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Old 4th April 2020, 02:43 PM   #113
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Actually no.

The point you're trying to make is irrelevant to this thread, so please carry it on elsewhere.

This thread is about anomalies between countries in the current pandemic.

Thanks.
It was a direct answer to a question asked of me. If you have a problem with the question, why didn't you address that to the asker of the question? Probably because you agree with the implicit assumptions of the questions but not my answer. I agree that the question was somewhat off topic though. I shall try to be more conscientious about advising askers of questions to address me in a more appropriate thread.

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Old 4th April 2020, 02:52 PM   #114
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So now hawaii is at 350 cases, four deaths and at least 20 hospitalizations. Seems about the same rate as anywhere else regarding deaths and crits right?

Killing me that taiwan has 23 TIMES the population, same number of cases and their daily new cases are going down not up
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Old 4th April 2020, 03:14 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
It was a direct answer to a question asked of me. If you have a problem with the question, why didn't you address that to the asker of the question?
I figured that quoting the answer would mean the question was OT as well, but anyway, thanks.

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
So now hawaii is at 350 cases, four deaths and at least 20 hospitalizations. Seems about the same rate as anywhere else regarding deaths and crits right?
Not yet, no.

There are only a couple of other states with a 1% mortality rate, and they were at least several weeks later getting started than Hawaii.

It still could go south very quickly.

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Killing me that taiwan has 23 TIMES the population, same number of cases and their daily new cases are going down not up
They had a couple of huge advantages:

Not a popular choice for Chinese tourists.
Experience with SARS.
A largely compliant and sensible population.
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Old 4th April 2020, 03:19 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I figured that quoting the answer would mean the question was OT as well, but anyway, thanks.



Not yet, no.

There are only a couple of other states with a 1% mortality rate, and they were at least several weeks later getting started than Hawaii.

It still could go south very quickly.



They had a couple of huge advantages:

Not a popular choice for Chinese tourists.
Experience with SARS.
A largely compliant and sensible population.
Especially with regard to social distancing and wearing masks.
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Old 4th April 2020, 03:26 PM   #117
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
So now hawaii is at 350 cases, four deaths and at least 20 hospitalizations. Seems about the same rate as anywhere else regarding deaths and crits right?

Killing me that taiwan has 23 TIMES the population, same number of cases and their daily new cases are going down not up
China canceled a visa program for its citizens to travel to Taiwan- last summer.
It's probably an important difference as Chinese mainlanders were the top group of tourists to Taiwan before that ban.
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Old 5th April 2020, 12:35 AM   #118
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I’m now confident that the downward trend in new infections in Australia is locked in. Recoveries are now outpacing new infections as well.
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Old 5th April 2020, 01:46 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I’m now confident that the downward trend in new infections in Australia is locked in. Recoveries are now outpacing new infections as well.
Agree entirely, although I'm not sure how. We seem - hopefully - to be in the same position, with new cases flat already, so I hope it continues for both of us!

I just wish I could say why, because whatever it is, the rest of the world could do with a piece of it.

I notice some US states seem to be doing much better than expected, too.
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Old 5th April 2020, 02:00 AM   #120
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Something else to keep an eye on - there are two rest homes in Christchurch with cases, but they're all quite mild.

With at least 12 infections, they're comparing pretty favourably with the Life Care, Seattle facility which had a 50% death rate.

I'll keep watch, but none of the cases become severe it will raise the question of what the hell's going on here. And Aussie, because I'm sure they've had rest home infections, but no death clusters in them so far.
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