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Old 7th April 2020, 05:59 PM   #161
Delvo
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected. That works out to a fatality rate of 0.1%, same as normal flu.
I don't know about the rate (attempts to estimate those vary wildly), but the quantity is far off. Same death rate (if it even is) but more contagious = more cases & more deaths.

Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Yes, I think this sort of thing goes on in hospitals every year, and have reams of articles from years past proving that it does.
Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Here are just a handful to start with. I can go on all day.

January 16, 2018, Los Angeles Times
California hospitals face a ‘war zone’ of flu patients — and are setting up tents to treat them
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/...htmlstory.html

Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, February 15, 2018
Overwhelmed' by flu patients, Columbus hospital opens portable clinic in parking lot
https://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news...200218759.html


CBS News, January 5, 2018
Overwhelmed by flu cases, some ERs turn ambulances away
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/overwhe...ay-california/


January 18, 2018, Time Magazine
Hospitals Overwhelmed by Flu Patients Are Treating Them in Tents
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-h...-flu-patients/


UPI, January 4, 2018
Hospitals overwhelmed by influx of flu patients
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2018...8171516800130/
Those didn't show the same thing happening every year.

For one thing, they're all from not a typical year but the worst year of recent times, with deaths going all the way up to 80 thousand. Most years fall between 12 and 60. CoV-19 beats "normal" if it even hits 65 or 80, nevermind over 100, and that's with the CoV-19 results artificially suppressed with immense precautions that are never taken for flu.

Second, the only particular result it describes other than some numbers is the hospitals using tents. And yes, they're using tents now too. But how many hospitals have been forced to resort to that, and how many tents apiece, and for how long? The word "tents" appearing in both situations doesn't make the situations the same.

About a decade ago, I was working at a hospital that put up a tent for a while too. The local news had done those scare-stories of the kind you're claiming this is. We needed one tent for a couple of weeks. We didn't run out of masks or any other PPE, venitlators, places to put patients, or ICU spots in particular, or morgue spots in particular. The morgue didn't need giant fridge trucks to keep taking the excess load of corpses away. And not all hospitals around got hit as hard as us. But there was still a tent.

You claimed you had proof that this was all a hoax. You've got tents. Tents are nothing. (At least without more detailed comparison of the details of their use.) Oh, and I almost forgot, you've got math on the level of "4=8 and 8=12 so that means 12=4". You couldn't be fuller of crap if you were a constipated cow. Your "reams" of articles you've scoured for to get a collection that say what you want them to say don't even say it, and just the fact that you even tried doing that is not a good sign.
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Old 7th April 2020, 06:26 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
If you are 'right' it will have been a lucky guess.
You mean like my lucky guess of calling a global pandemic in January?

Or my other lucky guess of calling the economic Black Swan event before anyone else?

Like I said, I'll gladly admit to being wrong if it turns out to be; in the meantime, your blowing hot air doesn't bother me a bit.

Feel free to offer an explanation yourself, or keep the hot air blower on.
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Old 7th April 2020, 06:28 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Those didn't show the same thing happening every year.
Just a quick request to keep that to the general thread, please, as none of it has any bearing on the territorial anomalies.
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Old 7th April 2020, 07:02 PM   #164
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Are there any other areas of the globe predicted to be hit with a 'double whammy' where a rise in deaths from other infections merges with cases of SARS-Covid-2?

I'm thinking of sub-Saharan Africa but thinking that any developing nation where tourism was low would be vulnerable.

Last edited by Sherkeu; 7th April 2020 at 07:05 PM.
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Old 7th April 2020, 07:18 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
We don't have a high test ratio. Not terrible, but not great either.



Yes, that could be a point. I bet Iceland, the Faroes and probably Chile aren't too bad in air pollution.

Doesn't explain LA.
High ratio equals desperately seeking positives.
New York finds 50% we find 3%
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Old 7th April 2020, 08:07 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Are there any other areas of the globe predicted to be hit with a 'double whammy' where a rise in deaths from other infections merges with cases of SARS-Covid-2?

I'm thinking of sub-Saharan Africa but thinking that any developing nation where tourism was low would be vulnerable.
Yes, definitely. The problem isn't just Covid hitting vulnerable communities, but also diverting health care and aid from people in extreme poverty.
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Old 7th April 2020, 09:28 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
We don't have a high test ratio. Not terrible, but not great either.



Yes, that could be a point. I bet Iceland, the Faroes and probably Chile aren't too bad in air pollution.

Doesn't explain LA.
Air pollution isn't as bad here as it used to be, especially not in Winter/Spring...when I was a kid I would always see it and feel it, now it's vastly improved, especially as far as particulates are concerned, which may be an important factor. And with the lockdowns it's almost nonexistent.

Last edited by Doghouse Reilly; 7th April 2020 at 09:30 PM.
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Old 7th April 2020, 10:00 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Air pollution isn't as bad here as it used to be, especially not in Winter/Spring...when I was a kid I would always see it and feel it, now it's vastly improved, especially as far as particulates are concerned, which may be an important factor. And with the lockdowns it's almost nonexistent.
When I was a kid I could see the mountains. Every day. Now I only see them after a storm. I could see the cities on the shore as we sailed our yacht from LB or Dana Point in the 1980's. Now it has a layer of brown haze.
My 11yo daughter was amazed last year when tall snowy mountains appeared, seemingly out of nowhere. It was a WOW moment for her.
Are you sure you live in the same place as I do?

I don't have allergies of any kind, so particulates might be improved for people who do. Wouldn't know.

Not that I think this has much to do with infections. Hazy as So. Cal. is at a distance, we still have plenty of sunshine coming through. I like all the intermittent rain recently.

Last edited by Sherkeu; 7th April 2020 at 10:01 PM.
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Old 7th April 2020, 10:26 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Are there any other areas of the globe predicted to be hit with a 'double whammy' where a rise in deaths from other infections merges with cases of SARS-Covid-2?

I'm thinking of sub-Saharan Africa but thinking that any developing nation where tourism was low would be vulnerable.
Bangladesh, perhaps?
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Old 7th April 2020, 10:37 PM   #170
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I am also of the opinion that the anomaly has nothing to do with the response of governments.
I won't be surprised if seasonal changes do have an impact, but I don't think the impact is large. By 'large', I mean large enough to change the outcome in most cases. It might affect the rate of spread to some degree and delay speed up things.

I do think it's only a matter of time before countries in the Southern Hemisphere start seeing an exponential rise in cases.
Just a guess, I guess.

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
You mean like my lucky guess of calling a global pandemic in January?

Or my other lucky guess of calling the economic Black Swan event before anyone else?
To be fair, your predictions hinged on this becoming a global pandemic and were logical consequences of such.
Good on you, you did a great job.
Whether it would become a pandemic was a lucky guess though. Fairly small differences in transmission and infection rates, severity of symptoms and response to treatments, things not known back then, could have lead to a very different outcome.
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Last edited by Cheetah; 7th April 2020 at 10:46 PM.
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Old 7th April 2020, 10:38 PM   #171
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Bangladesh, perhaps?
That is a good target for a virus. Dengue Fever hits there late July/August as the monsoons pick up. If they have a peak of covid-19 at the same time, even milder as it may be, it will have a great impact on such a poor area.
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Old 7th April 2020, 10:59 PM   #172
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Brazil is now going exponential, in cases and more importantly, deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/brazil/
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Old 7th April 2020, 11:02 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
I am also of the opinion that the anomaly has nothing to do with the response of governments.
I won't be surprised if seasonal changes do have an impact, but I don't think the impact is large. By 'large', I mean large enough to change the outcome in most cases. It might affect the rate of spread to some degree and delay speed up things.
The difference is huge, and I agree on government action, because Australia's "shutdown" hasn't even included hairdressers.

Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
I do think it's only a matter of time before countries in the Southern Hemisphere start seeing an exponential rise in cases.
Just a guess, I guess.
Winter will be the test, especially here, where it gets pretty cold.

I'm thinking of moving us north a couple of thousand km for the winter.

Still, our plan is complete victory over the virus, so mightn't be necessary.
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Old 8th April 2020, 01:05 AM   #174
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Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
I am also of the opinion that the anomaly has nothing to do with the response of governments.
Except look at Canada and the USA. Canada had a slow initial response, but it was nothing compared to the disastrous six lost weeks where the US was denying there was even a problem. And note that Canada has a colder climate, which appears to help the spread of the virus. But Canada has been seeing a lot fewer cases and deaths than the US, based on the number of days since 1) seven cases were reported in each country, and 2) the first death in each country.

Due to the variable incubation period, we can't be certain when the virus first arrived in Canada or the US, so we have to use benchmarks.

On January 30, 2020 the United States had 7 cases of COVID-19. Canada reached 7 confirmed cases on February 6. (I chose 7 cases as the baseline because that's where in my dataset I have two days with the exact same number of cases.) As of yesterday (April 7) it has been 61 days since Canada reached its first 7 cases (it remained at that number for a week.) In that time the case count has grown to 17,883 and the number of deaths is at 380. By contrast, 61 days after 7 cases in the US (April 1), they had 212,814 cases and 4,746 deaths.

A less scary benchmark is from a point in the two datasets where the number of confirmed cases rose from 12 cases one day to 14 cases the next. In the US that happened on February 19 and 20; in Canada on February 26 and 27. In the 42 days since that happened, the US had risen to 186,082 cases and 3,806 deaths, while Canada had risen to 17,883 cases and 380 deaths.

Another metric I can use is the date of the first recorded death. In Canada that was on March 10. As of yesterday, it has been 28 days since that first death, and in that time the virus has claimed the lives of 380 Canadians. The first US death was on February 29, and 28 days later (March 28), 2,039 Americans had lost their lives to COVID-19.

(Sherkeu, you may have these numbers available for California. If so, can you do a similar analysis for California?)

It appears the different government responses have had a significant effect on the case loads and death counts.

Another difference might be cultural. Going by stereotypes, Canadians are more willing to listen to their government, while Americans tend to be suspicious of government but trust the president (current president notwithstanding.) That's not good when the president is more concerned about the stock market than the health of his country's citizens.


You can also take a look at Norway (lockdown, lots of testing) vs Sweden (business as usual.) Sweden is doing a lot worse than Norway.
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Last edited by Blue Mountain; 8th April 2020 at 03:00 AM. Reason: Fixed day 61 numbers; added 12→14 benchmark
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Old 8th April 2020, 01:09 AM   #175
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Talking about the relative low case numbers and slow spread in the Southern Hemisphere compared to the Northern.

Canada and US are as you say. As we have seen in multiple instances now, lockdowns can have a drastic affect, visible a few weeks down the line.
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Old 8th April 2020, 01:37 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The difference is huge, and I agree on government action, because Australia's "shutdown" hasn't even included hairdressers.
What difference is huge?

I'm not convinced there is much of an anomaly.
Don't you think almost all differences between countries can be explained by stuff like:
  • Timing and extent of outbreak
  • Timing and extent or government response
  • Population density
  • Cultural and economical aspects
  • Season
'Timing' being possibly the most important.

If you look at charts of total confirmed deaths per country, like the one on Our World in Data, can you spot the anomaly?
Australia does seem to stand out though, with less cases and slower growth than you would expect.
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Old 8th April 2020, 01:58 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The difference is huge, and I agree on government action, because Australia's "shutdown" hasn't even included hairdressers.
And this is where you are mistaken. My observation is that most hairdressers have closed down, certainly in surrounding suburbs. But more to the point is that Australians, despite their “rugged individualists” image are pretty compliant. Why? Because it’s easier, and the easy way out is the Australian way.

This means that social exclusion is treated extremely seriously. Only two people in a shop or an elevator? No worries. Don’t leave home without a good reason? Fair enough.

As an illustration, we have some appalling tabloid press and TV shows, madly on the lookout for people breaking the rules. Overnight they came up with a gathering of nine members of an outlaw bikie gang and a dinner party of six.

I can go in to my office as can all of my colleagues. Instead we are all working from home and are actually bonding better, with Zoom drinks each Friday afternoon, where in the past we did no socialising. Everywhere I go, people are using hand sanitisers. 2 meter distancing is the more. We are obeying the rules. And this doesn’t surprise me.
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Old 8th April 2020, 02:00 AM   #178
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Here is one to throw out there. Free roaming pet cats!
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Old 8th April 2020, 02:04 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
I'm not convinced there is much of an anomaly.
Yeah, I'm sure there is.

Look at NZ, Australia, Japan, Hawaii & Iceland.

Then South Korea & Hong Kong.

SK & HK took early measures as a result of experience with SARS 1.0.

NZ & Aussie were lax as hell at the start yet never saw the explosion of cases that happened in Europe & America. Hawaii's been utterly worthless by way of response while Japan has been slightly better than Hawaii but well behind NZ/Aus. Iceland has tested widely, which may have helped the case load, but won't affect mortality, which is very low.

Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
Don't you think almost all differences between countries can be explained by stuff like:
  • Timing and extent of outbreak
  • Timing and extent or government response
  • Population density
  • Cultural and economical aspects
  • Season
'Timing' being possibly the most important.
In order:

No - the outbreaks here and Aussie were early and wide enough to spark a major epidemic, but haven't.
No - both of our governments were slow to respond and Japan is only tightening up now.
Probably not - HK isn't far short of NY and Tokyo's is pretty high.
No - Italy, France, UK & America's demographics are all comparable to NZ, Aussie & Japan.
Season I think is highly likely. Whether by way of ambient temperature or vitamin D, I don't know.

Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
Australia does seem to stand out though, with less cases and slower growth than you would expect.
Yep, they're living up to their self-monicker of "The lucky country", because they should be a mini-Italy by now, but their mortality rate is 0.8% and new infections today are lowest since 11 March.

Interestingly, NZ has 1/5 the population of Aussie and we have almost exactly 1/5 the cases, so they tend to confirm each other.
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Old 8th April 2020, 02:12 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
And this is where you are mistaken. My observation is that most hairdressers have closed down, certainly in surrounding suburbs.
"Most".

The hairdressers themselves asked to be shut down. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle...ectid=12319940

I've also mentioned a couple of times that even racing is going ahead in Aussie. Sure, there are no crowds, but if you think there's any kind of separation going on there you'd be wrong.

I'm not sure when schools were closed, but they were still open late March.

There is no chance Australia has missed the bullet through its actions - there's something else at play.

I admire your sticking up for your Ocker pals, but it's baloney.

Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Here is one to throw out there. Free roaming pet cats!
That's it! The virus is infecting cats instead of people.
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Old 8th April 2020, 02:14 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Here is one to throw out there. Free roaming pet cats!
Coronavirus: 'Pets no risk to owners' vets stress


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Old 8th April 2020, 02:18 AM   #182
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Here is one to throw out there. Free roaming pet cats!
I looked at that but there wasn't a correlation either in my view.

https://www.pri.org/stories/2013-08-...st-pet-felines
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Old 8th April 2020, 03:23 AM   #183
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In the above analysis, the most pessimistic benchmark s the number of days since the first recorded case occurred, which as of yesterday was 73.

Cases and deaths 73 days after the first diagnosed case
Country Cases Deaths  
Canada
17,883
380
 
USA
273,808
7,007
 

However, I don't think this benchmark is that valid. In Canada that first case was a person who arrived in Toronto from Guangzhou (and earlier Wuhan) on January 22. By that time Canada already had signage up in airports in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver warning of the virus, and Canada was actively monitoring five or six people. That indicates awareness was high in Canada by the time that first case was found. By contrast, in the US the virus may have already been circulating in Washington state for a couple of weeks prior to the first diagnosis, meaning the US had, in effect, a two week jump start on Canada.

Having said that, the other benchmarks I've used (days since 7 cases, days since 12 cases rose to 14, and days since first death,) show the US is still in worse shape than Canada.
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Old 8th April 2020, 03:33 AM   #184
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Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
Talking about the relative low case numbers and slow spread in the Southern Hemisphere compared to the Northern.

Canada and US are as you say. As we have seen in multiple instances now, lockdowns can have a drastic affect, visible a few weeks down the line.
Ah, I see.
  • Slow response in northern hemisphere / cold climates = disaster
  • Slow response in southern hemisphere / hot climates = what, me worry?
The numbers in Africa, India, and Central and South America over the course of the next month should tell us if this is indeed the case. Also, we may see things get bad in Australia and New Zealand as they head into winter.
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Old 8th April 2020, 03:39 AM   #185
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Nov 20, 2019
Cuban doctors leave Ecuador
"The initial group of doctors returned to Cuba from Ecuador on November 19, 2019, days after an agreement between the countries was terminated.
According to reporting by eldiario.es, about 382 Cuban doctors were working in 23 of the 24 provinces of the Republic of Ecuador.
The change was announced on November 12th by the Ecuadorian Minister of Interior, María Paula Romo, who said ‘Ecuador would not renew the various bilateral agreements with Cuba in the area of ​​Health.’"

The same thing happened in Brazil after Bolsonaro and in Bolivia after the coup against Evo Morales. Bad for Brazilians and Bolivians, but good for the Italians and many others.
Cuban Docs Fighting Coronavirus Around World, Defying US (NYT, April 3, 2020)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 8th April 2020, 03:51 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
"Most".

The hairdressers themselves asked to be shut down. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle...ectid=12319940

I've also mentioned a couple of times that even racing is going ahead in Aussie. Sure, there are no crowds, but if you think there's any kind of separation going on there you'd be wrong.

I'm not sure when schools were closed, but they were still open late March.

There is no chance Australia has missed the bullet through its actions - there's something else at play.

I admire your sticking up for your Ocker pals, but it's baloney.



That's it! The virus is infecting cats instead of people.
Okay then. On your say so.

So we have either a pretty rigorous approach endorsed by the best medical authorities, supported by massive amounts of government subsidies and embraced by the vast majority of the nation’s population or your completely unsupported theories of vitamin D, low pollution, a diet of fish, phase of the moon, sports played (in the spirit of this thread I have pulled a couple out of my arse). Jeez, who to believe.......
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Old 8th April 2020, 04:11 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Some pretty mixed messages there: Cats can catch it. So maybe keep your cats in. If you catch it, that is. Or maybe do it anyway. Nobody's caught it from their cat.

It's going to need a firmer message than that to make me go buy a litter tray and tell our two they can't use the fields behind our house any more.
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Old 8th April 2020, 04:15 AM   #188
William Parcher
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This is more than a week old but I forgot to post it...


Doctor working with Amazon tribe tests positive for coronavirus – sparking fears deadly bug will reach remote indigenous communities

Originally Posted by Daily Mail
A doctor working with the largest tribe in the Amazon has tested positive for the coronavirus.

Brazil's Health Ministry announced the news yesterday - ringing alarm bells that the epidemic could spread to vulnerable and remote indigenous communities with devastating effect.

The doctor, who has not been named, had returned from vacation on March 18 to work with the Tikunas, a tribe of more than 30,000 people who live in the upper Amazon near the borders with Colombia and Peru.

He developed a fever later that day and went into isolation, testing positive for the respiratory disease COVID-19 a week later, the ministry said.

Eight tribe members he treated on his first day back working for the indigenous health service Sesai have also been isolated in their homes and are being monitored, the ministry said.

The doctor's infection is the first confirmed case of the virus directly present in an indigenous village. It raises fears of an outbreak that could be lethal for Brazil's 850,000 indigenous people that have a history of decimation by diseases brought by Europeans, from smallpox and malaria to the flu.

Health experts say their way of life in communal hamlets under large thatched structures increases the risk of contagion if any single member contracts the new coronavirus. Social isolation is hard for tribes to practise...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ronavirus.html
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Old 8th April 2020, 05:47 AM   #189
dann
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Yesterday, Kåre Mølbak, the leader of the Danish Serum Institute, said that the percentage of blood donors tested positive for the coronavirus indicates that 30 to 80 times more people than so far indicated have been infected: Serum Institut: 30-80 gange flere smittede end tal viser (DR.dk, april 7, 2020)

Yesterday, the number of people actually tested positive with the virus was 5,386. Due to a lack of testing apparatus, after March 12 candidacy for testing for coronavirus was limited to hospital workers and patients in need of hospitalization. An adequate number of tests didn't become available until April 1st.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 8th April 2020, 08:51 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post

Another metric I can use is the date of the first recorded death. In Canada that was on March 10. As of yesterday, it has been 28 days since that first death, and in that time the virus has claimed the lives of 380 Canadians. The first US death was on February 29, and 28 days later (March 28), 2,039 Americans had lost their lives to COVID-19.

(Sherkeu, you may have these numbers available for California. If so, can you do a similar analysis for California?)
It's hard to know where to start in Calif as the first cases were all returning travelers or cruise ship passengers. Those came in during the 3rd and 4th week of January. Then there was a 'long pause' until community transmissions showed up. Testing was terrible then...and not all that great still.

And then you have weird tracking like this:
"Note: A Santa Clara County death that had been reported on Feb. 29 has been moved to March 9 due to a shift in how deaths are tracked."

Last edited by Sherkeu; 8th April 2020 at 08:52 AM.
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Old 8th April 2020, 10:10 AM   #191
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Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
What difference is huge?

I'm not convinced there is much of an anomaly.
Don't you think almost all differences between countries can be explained by stuff like:
  • Timing and extent of outbreak
  • Timing and extent or government response
  • Cultural and economical aspects
  • Season
'Timing' being possibly the most important.
Hawaii had cases in January, which they won't count as actual cases because "Asymptomatic cases cannot transmit the virus".

Culturally, locals cannot stop touching each other at every opportunity including sticking faces together with strangers and blowing into their faces, the Honi. Also there is an extremely strong anti vaccine attitude, a VIOLENT antiscience movement and many who do not actually believe in germs or "other kine stuffs I no can see"

Economically, the government and many locals will risk any amount of safety or environmental damage for tourist dollars and kept the tourist flow even until today. We locals are locked down, stay at home orders while tourists are still free to fly in and transmitting this to our "essential workers". Our essential workers list is also a joke. On sunday, our highest density of infection had a farmers market where the vendors refused to wear masked and there was no way to keep a 3 foot spacing between people
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Old 8th April 2020, 11:14 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Yesterday, Kåre Mølbak, the leader of the Danish Serum Institute, said that the percentage of blood donors tested positive for the coronavirus indicates that [i][b]30 to 80 times more people than so far indicated have been infected.
That's why I've been saying we need to do a lot more serological testing - that could well be the most important discovery on the disease so far.

Not to mention, using plasma from recovered patients seems to be pretty useful.

Very good information - I trust your mob.

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Culturally, locals cannot stop touching each other at every opportunity including sticking faces together with strangers and blowing into their faces, the Honi. Also there is an extremely strong anti vaccine attitude, a VIOLENT antiscience movement and many who do not actually believe in germs or "other kine stuffs I no can see"
Exactly why I've been tearing my hair out about Hawaii forever.

Other countries might have mistaken how to handle it, but Hawaii seems to have been: "Let's put out the welcome mat and indulge in every behaviour likely to create a disaster." but it just isn't happening.

Your daily increase in cases is 6% and falling and at 1% of people tested, I think the percentages hold up.

What I don't understand is why nobody else is talking about it. I haven't seen a single word in the media about Hawaii's crazy numbers.
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Old 8th April 2020, 11:51 AM   #193
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Air pollution:


https://www.theguardian.com/environm...es-study-finds
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Old 8th April 2020, 01:09 PM   #194
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One word: Florida.

The state that has taken it the least seriously, a very high average age and number of retirees, yet their growth rate has dropped like they were South Korea - inexplicably going from 30% a day to well under 10% - then add in a mortality rate of under 2%.

California also under 10% a day growth now.
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Old 8th April 2020, 01:26 PM   #195
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Hawaii had cases in January, which they won't count as actual cases because "Asymptomatic cases cannot transmit the virus".

Culturally, locals cannot stop touching each other at every opportunity including sticking faces together with strangers and blowing into their faces, the Honi. Also there is an extremely strong anti vaccine attitude, a VIOLENT antiscience movement and many who do not actually believe in germs or "other kine stuffs I no can see"

Economically, the government and many locals will risk any amount of safety or environmental damage for tourist dollars and kept the tourist flow even until today. We locals are locked down, stay at home orders while tourists are still free to fly in and transmitting this to our "essential workers". Our essential workers list is also a joke. On sunday, our highest density of infection had a farmers market where the vendors refused to wear masked and there was no way to keep a 3 foot spacing between people
I was told by a friend who lives in Hawaii that there is a mandatory 2 week quarantine period for anyone flying in now, is that not the case?
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Old 8th April 2020, 02:53 PM   #196
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
I was told by a friend who lives in Hawaii that there is a mandatory 2 week quarantine period for anyone flying in now, is that not the case?
Its mandatory to tell the locals that the Missile Button Governor asks that visitors self quarantine for 14 days. As long as the visitor can show the sherrif's deputy or national guardsmen that they have a place to stay and a way to drive off from the airport, they are then free to do whatever they want. Yesterday they mentioned that they may start cracking down on the tourists, but all we really have in the news are locals getting busted for jogging.

There's a senate meeting today where I asked that question be clarified so we shall see. I suggest all tourists stay in the governor's house so he can keep an eye on them
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Old 8th April 2020, 04:34 PM   #197
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I hate to say this but my predictor now says New Zealand will lose control.
Territory anomaly at risk.
He thinks Ardern is totally out of her depth.
I pray he is wrong.
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Old 8th April 2020, 05:22 PM   #198
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I hate to say this but my predictor now says New Zealand will lose control.
Territory anomaly at risk.
He thinks Ardern is totally out of her depth.
I pray he is wrong.
Luckily, Ardern has bugger all to do with it. She's just the vacant face at the front.

Ain't no way Winston's going to allow her to lift restrictions while his voters are at risk.

Be thankful we don't have a president.
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Old 8th April 2020, 07:02 PM   #199
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I copied this from the other thread:

Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Not sure if this has been posted yet (my home quarantine is over and started working again so a little less free time, it's hard to keep up with this fast moving thread!):

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/c...rus-covid.html

It's about the impact of air pollution on the severity of covid19 outcomes. Apparently it's a pretty important variable. For those looking at different outcomes across regions, this could potentially explain some difference in fatality rates.
What are the rates of asthma in the anomalous places?
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Old 8th April 2020, 08:46 PM   #200
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So far Hawaii is a bit more than 1% fatality for confirmed cases (6 deaths out of 400 something confirmed cases). So while our infection rate may or may not be low, our fatality rate is higher than some. One of our DOH is saying we are testing more per capita than South Korea, not sure if that's true.
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