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Old 30th April 2020, 03:12 AM   #321
dann
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A Swedish doctor in the region of Scania (Wikipedia), the southernmost part of Sweden, connected to Copenhagen with the Øresund bridge (Google Maps), thinks that Scania has benefitted from the way that Denmark tackled the virus:
Svensk læge: - Vi har haft stor glæde af Danmarks hårde linje (TV2.dk, April 30, 2020)

Article by a professor at the University of Lund (also in Scania):
Undervurderer vi antallet af coronasmittede? Det tror de i Sverige (Videnskab.dk, April 28, 2020)
Do we underestimate the number of people infected with the coronavirus? They think so in Sweden.
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 30th April 2020, 09:55 AM   #322
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The Daily Show with Trevor Noah, April 28, 2020:
Coronavirus Updates: Immunity in Sweden & Trump Ignored Warnings (5 min.):
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 30th April 2020, 10:32 AM   #323
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Quote:
Den amerikanske præsident har skiftet holdning i løbet af et døgn, og er nu kritisk overfor den åbne svenske corona-strategi.
Den amerikanske præsident Donald Trump kritiserer i dag Sverige og siger, at landet har betalt ”en høj pris” for at holde samfundet mere åbent end sine nabolande.
I beskeden på Twitter sammenligner han dødstallene i Sverige og Danmark og noterer sig, at dødstallet i Sverige er ”betydeligt højere” end i Danmark og de andre skandinaviske lande.
Trump kritiserer Sverige og fremhæver Danmark (TV2.dk, April 30, 2020)
My translation:
In the last 24 hours, the American president has changed his mind and now criticizes the Swedish coronavirus strategy.
Today the American president Donald Trump criticizes Sweden and says that the country has paid ”a high price” for keeping the country more open than its neighbouring countries.
In his tweet he compares the number of deaths in Sweden and Denmark and notes that the mortality rate in Sweden is ”significantly higher” than in Denmark and the other Scandinavian countries.
Trump criticizes Sweden and emphasizes Denmark

Sweden just overtook Ireland and Switzerland on the list of per capita coronavirus deaths and is now #9.

Deaths per million (total) (TV2.dk, April 30, 2020)
Sweden: 258 (2,586)
USA: 186 (61,187)
Denmark: 78 (452)
Norway: 38 (207)
Finland: 38 (211)
Iceland: 30 (10)

I notice that Finland is about to overtake Norway - probably because the Norwegians test much more than the Finns:
Percentage of population tested - Percentage of positive tests
Sweden: 0.7 – 14.1
Finland: 1.1 – 6.5
Denmark: 1.7 – 7.8
Norway: 2.7 – 4.9
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 30th April 2020, 10:52 AM   #324
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Well, maybe Trump changed his mind because the WHO started it (in the other direction)?

> WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a ‘model’ for countries going forward, April 29
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Old 30th April 2020, 11:09 AM   #325
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I assume that a comparison of the Nordic countries just happened to be a part of Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx's educational briefings this morning. They say that Birx is very good at catching his attention by using colorful graphs and curves.
This Swedish website is excellent:
Länders utveckling i kurvor (SVT.se)
Curves showing the development in different countries.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 30th April 2020, 11:16 AM   #326
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Meanwhile in Belarus the mass rallies for tomorrow's labour day have been cancelled on short notice, but the plannings for victory day a week later are going on and no changes to the (lack of lockdown) measures have taken place.

Roughly bringing the numbers in dann's format, they have according to the health ministriy's daily briefing (with close to ten million citizens):

8.9 deaths per million
1.8% of the population tested, 7.9% of those positive (that's coincidentally almost identical to Denmark I just see)

They seem to be treating the serious cases with this hydroxychloroquine stuff they got donated in large amounts from I forgot which country.
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Old 30th April 2020, 12:37 PM   #327
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CNN, April 30, 2020:
Quote:
Unlike its European neighbors, Swedish officials did not institute lockdown measures to combat the Covid-19 epidemic. CNN's Phil Black takes a look at how that has affected the country's outbreak.

Deaths climb in country that didn't lock down. Officials identify big reason why. (9 min.)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 30th April 2020, 01:09 PM   #328
dann
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Also from CNN:

Quote:
Sweden has been an outlier during the coronavirus outbreak, refraining from imposing strict limits on citizens' lives.
Swedish deputy PM: Covid-19 'is a marathon, not a sprint' (CNN, April 30, 2020 – 4 min.)

This one is included in the CNN Youtube video in the previous post:
Deaths soar in country that didn't lock down. Officials identify big reason why (CNN, April 30, 2020 – 3 min.)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 30th April 2020, 02:09 PM   #329
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It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the longer term.

Does strict quarantine mostly delay the spike of cases and deaths, or does it mostly turn the sudden spike into a gradual curve?

Is Sweden just biting the bullet and developing its herd immunity early, or is it actually going to have more overall deaths in the long run because of this approach?
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Old 30th April 2020, 02:57 PM   #330
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I am getting so sick of people who don't know what herd immunity is banging on about it.

Herd immunity has a very specific definition, as anyone who has been involved in the pro-vaccine debate will tell you. It describes the situation where a vigorous vaccination campaign has had sufficient success that enough individuals are immune for the population - the "herd" - to be unable to sustain the infection at all. In this situation even the unvaccinated are protected from infection and can mix freely with the rest of the population.

This is not something that can happen by natural infection, because you simply can't line people up and infect them with a virulent pathogen. Also because people infected with the virulent pathogen excrete virulent virus, which vaccinated people don't. It has never happened in the entire history of medicine and there is no reason at all to believe that this coronavirus is miraculously going to be the first one to do it. If this happened, we wouldn't need vaccines! Measles would have gone away on its own! So would polio, smallpox, all the rest. So I wish ignorant politicians and journalists would stop banging on about achieving herd immunity by natural infection because it won't happen. The "herd" does not become immune to the virus without a vaccine.

What will happen is that the epidemic gradually ends and is replaced by an endemic situation. The virus finds a sort of equilibrium where sickness and death continue, but at a slower rate. Maybe a few deaths a day, maybe a few deaths a week. But the virus will still be there. That's the future the "just let it happen" proponents are proposing we should all live with indefinitely.

What does that mean for the people who have been protecting themselves from the virus? It means that they have to keep doing that, indefinitely. They will never be protected by the "herd", because that simply doesn't happen without a vaccine. So everyone who has been isolating themselves will either have to keep doing that, or risk getting infected.

Of course this will end when a vaccine becomes available, which it pretty certainly will do in the medium term. In the end though the country that wins Covid-19 will be the one that kept most of its people alive by that time. It ain't going to be to ones who decided the best thing to do was just to let people catch it.

In the interim period I can see what's going to happen. The virus is eradicable with sufficient public health effort. This is being proved by multiple countries. I don't imagine anyone will be able to stop test/trace/isolate because there's always one, and of course there will be incoming travellers, but it is clearly possible to get new cases down to such a low incidence that non-immune people can go around with reasonable confidence of safety and jumping on the cases that emerge isn't too onerous. However New Zealand, Australia and Iceland are well on their way. China got to the point where all new cases were imported. South Korea and Taiwan as well I think. When I look at the size of the cities that have actually been cleared, I'm in awe.

These countries are already talking about opening their borders to each other. About a bubble of very-low-prevalence states where travel will be allowed reasonably freely. And then there will be the states that have allowed the virus to become endemic. Their nationals will be pariahs as far as the clean states are concerned. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

An interesting development, particularly to me personally as my entire career was spent in laboratory medicine, is the development of new tests. Not only have traditional PCR and serology tests been developed for this virus in double-quick time, brand new methods are appearing. Things I thought must be scams turn out to be the real deal. Virus detection based on PCR technology which is essentially "point of care" and can produce a result in half an hour.

This is going to revolutionise test/trace/isolate. When suspect cases can have a yes-or-no in half an hour, when contact tracers can actually visit each suspect case and their contacts and get the answer at that actual visit, it's going to be so much easier. Countries that didn't do it and let the virus get out of control are going to be under a lot of pressure from their own people to get in there and do it. People who are confined through fear will demand it, people who are seeing the death toll continue to creep upwards are going to demand it.

At least that's where I see this going. There's going to be a reservoir in third world countries anyway and a vaccine is the obvious end point. That will allow the determined countries to complete their eradication programmes and squash the sickness and death rates in the third world countries down to influenza levels or better. But in the mean time we're going to be a two-tier world, and I know which side of the divide I'd rather be on.
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Old 30th April 2020, 03:09 PM   #331
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I am getting so sick of people who don't know what herd immunity is banging on about it.

Herd immunity has a very specific definition, as anyone who has been involved in the pro-vaccine debate will tell you. It describes the situation where a vigorous vaccination campaign has had sufficient success that enough individuals are immune for the population - the "herd" - to be unable to sustain the infection at all. In this situation even the unvaccinated are protected from infection and can mix freely with the rest of the population.

If that's true it's sad and would only show that "anyone who has been involved in the pro-vaccine debate" is debating themselves in a filter bubble. Just see what wikipedia writes:

Originally Posted by common wisdom
Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.[1][2] In a population in which a large proportion of individuals possess immunity, such people being unlikely to contribute to disease transmission, chains of infection are more likely to be disrupted, which either stops or slows the spread of disease.[3] The greater the proportion of immune individuals in a community, the smaller the probability that non-immune individuals will come into contact with an infectious individual, helping to shield non-immune individuals from infection.[1] [...]

So the effect depends on the percentage of immune people, regardless of the way they got immunity. I think you should stop that diversion and discuss it in another thread though.
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Old 30th April 2020, 03:22 PM   #332
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Wikipedia is not an acceptable source. I taught this at degree level and I know what words mean. The simple fact is that virulent pathogens do not produce a herd immunity effect. You have to really try with a vaccine to get the uptake high enough. People trying not to catch it and then excreting live virus when they do simply doesn't do that. You'd actually have to round people up and forcibly infect them, and let's see how you get on with that.

We would never have needed vaccines if that worked, for goodness sake. Because idiots are misusing a term which is associated with elimination of disease from the population, people are talking as if this miraculous "herd immunity" that's just going to happen (even though significant numbers of people are doing their damnedest not to catch it and post-exposure immunity may only last a year giving a continuous feed of newly-susceptible people into the mix) is going to be the end of it and the disease will go away when that point is reached.

That is not going to happen. The disease will become endemic and there will be a constant stream of people getting sick and dying in these countries for the foreseeable future, just not at the rate of hundreds a day. And this is precisely relevant to this thread.
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Old 30th April 2020, 03:47 PM   #333
dann
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Of course this will end when a vaccine becomes available, which it pretty certainly will do in the medium term.

I agree, but you forget the possible development of treatments that may lower the number of deaths. Several are being tested, and at least one of them, Remdesivir, seems to improve the chances of surviving Covid-19:

Quote:
Preliminary results indicate that patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time to recovery than those who received placebo (p<0.001). Specifically, the median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15 days for those who received placebo. Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (p=0.059).

So even without a vaccine, flattening the curve doesn't simply mean that you'll just get sick later. It means that you may not get as sick as you would have been if you had been infected at an earlier stage of the pandemic, and you also stand a better chance of not dying, which, of course, also means that Sweden is probably going to have more overall deaths in the long run:
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Is Sweden just biting the bullet and developing its herd immunity early, or is it actually going to have more overall deaths in the long run because of this approach?
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old 30th April 2020, 04:07 PM   #334
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Yes, that's also an important consideration. If they can get to the point where the case mortality rate is very much lower than it is at present that could also give unexposed people more confidence about going out. But having had pneumonia once already, half a lifetime ago, I'm not gagging to repeat the experience. And I didn't even get to the point of struggling for breath or needing oxygen. Just fever and a bad cough.

And as you say, it's always better to get it later rather than sooner. People have died who might have been saved at a later stage with improved treatments.

I was just reading an interesting article about Britain's (woeful) response, and I noted the continual use of the words "so-called herd immunity" and "a type of herd immunity", which suggests that the person writing the article does actually understand that the term is being misused. Nobody is actually talking about herd immunity, which would imply the elimination of the virus from the population, they are talking about progressing from epidemic disease to endemic disease. It's misleading, because herd immunity is generally understood to mean elimination of the virus from the population and I think people are going to be a bit pissed off when they realise it just means measuring the deaths in hundreds a week rather than hundreds a day.
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Old 30th April 2020, 04:18 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I am getting so sick of people who don't know what herd immunity is banging on about it.
Correction taken and appreciated.

Sorry I made you sick. Get well soon!
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Old 30th April 2020, 04:55 PM   #336
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I'm fine! Never better thanks. Look after yourself.
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Old 30th April 2020, 04:57 PM   #337
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Professorerna: 10–20 000 kommer dö i corona i Sverige (Aftonbladet.se, April 30, 2020)
Professors: 10–20,000 will die from the coronavirus in Sweden
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 30th April 2020, 08:27 PM   #338
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Herd immunity has a very specific definition, as anyone who has been involved in the pro-vaccine debate will tell you. It describes the situation where a vigorous vaccination campaign has had sufficient success that enough individuals are immune for the population - the "herd" - to be unable to sustain the infection at all. In this situation even the unvaccinated are protected from infection and can mix freely with the rest of the population.
This.

Herd immunity from a high percentage of the population being vaccinated (say 95%) means that the unvaccinated members of a population are not only less likely to come into contact with the disease (statistically, 95% of the population cannot pass it to them) they are also less likely to pass it on to someone else (95% of the population are immune through vaccination).

The result is that even with a very infectious disease, such as measles, that other 5% won't become ill because there is no one to catch the disease from. If a high enough percentage of the population are immune, then the disease will stop spreading in the population. Required percentages of population immunity vary from disease to disease. AIUI, mumps is around 80%, Measles around 92%, Rubella around 85%

The figure I have heard bandied about for Covid19 is 60-70%
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Old 30th April 2020, 11:23 PM   #339
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I am getting so sick of people who don't know what herd immunity is banging on about it.

Herd immunity has a very specific definition, as anyone who has been involved in the pro-vaccine debate will tell you. It describes the situation where a vigorous vaccination campaign has had sufficient success that enough individuals are immune for the population - the "herd" - to be unable to sustain the infection at all. In this situation even the unvaccinated are protected from infection and can mix freely with the rest of the population.

This is not something that can happen by natural infection, because you simply can't line people up and infect them with a virulent pathogen. Also because people infected with the virulent pathogen excrete virulent virus, which vaccinated people don't. It has never happened in the entire history of medicine and there is no reason at all to believe that this coronavirus is miraculously going to be the first one to do it. If this happened, we wouldn't need vaccines! Measles would have gone away on its own! So would polio, smallpox, all the rest. So I wish ignorant politicians and journalists would stop banging on about achieving herd immunity by natural infection because it won't happen. The "herd" does not become immune to the virus without a vaccine.

What will happen is that the epidemic gradually ends and is replaced by an endemic situation. The virus finds a sort of equilibrium where sickness and death continue, but at a slower rate. Maybe a few deaths a day, maybe a few deaths a week. But the virus will still be there. That's the future the "just let it happen" proponents are proposing we should all live with indefinitely.

What does that mean for the people who have been protecting themselves from the virus? It means that they have to keep doing that, indefinitely. They will never be protected by the "herd", because that simply doesn't happen without a vaccine. So everyone who has been isolating themselves will either have to keep doing that, or risk getting infected.

Of course this will end when a vaccine becomes available, which it pretty certainly will do in the medium term. In the end though the country that wins Covid-19 will be the one that kept most of its people alive by that time. It ain't going to be to ones who decided the best thing to do was just to let people catch it.

In the interim period I can see what's going to happen. The virus is eradicable with sufficient public health effort. This is being proved by multiple countries. I don't imagine anyone will be able to stop test/trace/isolate because there's always one, and of course there will be incoming travellers, but it is clearly possible to get new cases down to such a low incidence that non-immune people can go around with reasonable confidence of safety and jumping on the cases that emerge isn't too onerous. However New Zealand, Australia and Iceland are well on their way. China got to the point where all new cases were imported. South Korea and Taiwan as well I think. When I look at the size of the cities that have actually been cleared, I'm in awe.

These countries are already talking about opening their borders to each other. About a bubble of very-low-prevalence states where travel will be allowed reasonably freely. And then there will be the states that have allowed the virus to become endemic. Their nationals will be pariahs as far as the clean states are concerned. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

An interesting development, particularly to me personally as my entire career was spent in laboratory medicine, is the development of new tests. Not only have traditional PCR and serology tests been developed for this virus in double-quick time, brand new methods are appearing. Things I thought must be scams turn out to be the real deal. Virus detection based on PCR technology which is essentially "point of care" and can produce a result in half an hour.

This is going to revolutionise test/trace/isolate. When suspect cases can have a yes-or-no in half an hour, when contact tracers can actually visit each suspect case and their contacts and get the answer at that actual visit, it's going to be so much easier. Countries that didn't do it and let the virus get out of control are going to be under a lot of pressure from their own people to get in there and do it. People who are confined through fear will demand it, people who are seeing the death toll continue to creep upwards are going to demand it.

At least that's where I see this going. There's going to be a reservoir in third world countries anyway and a vaccine is the obvious end point. That will allow the determined countries to complete their eradication programmes and squash the sickness and death rates in the third world countries down to influenza levels or better. But in the mean time we're going to be a two-tier world, and I know which side of the divide I'd rather be on.
I thought you were a vet?

Regardless, I nomed your post.
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Old 1st May 2020, 12:11 AM   #340
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Animals get viruses too.
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Old 1st May 2020, 01:46 AM   #341
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I nominated Rolfe's post too for weaving science and common sense, in New Zealand we are kind of sad for Sweden, but no one wins anyway.
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Old 1st May 2020, 03:10 AM   #342
Rolfe
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Animals get viruses too.

This is me. Veterinary laboratory medicine

That book was written before I moved into a job in disease control where I did a lot more with the sort of virus tests that are relevant to this pandemic, and was involved in disease eradication campaigns.

(There are people on Amazon purporting to sell hardback copies of my - now outdated - book for silly amounts of money. In fact there never was a hardback, it was a paperback from the start.)
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Old 1st May 2020, 03:14 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
This is me. Veterinary laboratory medicine

That book was written before I moved into a job in disease control where I did a lot more with the sort of virus tests that are relevant to this pandemic, and was involved in disease eradication campaigns.

(There are people on Amazon purporting to sell hardback copies of my - now outdated - book for silly amounts of money. In fact there never was a hardback, it was a paperback from the start.)
Have you got a few copies in the attic: 1 New from £1,039.46
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Old 1st May 2020, 04:20 AM   #344
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I don't know what algorithms these book dealers use. There never was a hardback in the first place. The paperback originally cost about £35 as far as I remember.

The ones selling second-hand paperback copies for £15-£20 are probably genuine. I think the book might still be available as a print on demand or something, because I occasionally see royalties appearing in my bank account. (I just checked my bank statement after typing that and there's a credit of £18.55 showing dated 25th March, so someone must have bought one.)
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Old 1st May 2020, 04:52 AM   #345
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Craft project for you during lockdown, get some card and start printing some covers!
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Old 1st May 2020, 08:01 AM   #346
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
This is me. Veterinary laboratory medicine

That book was written before I moved into a job in disease control where I did a lot more with the sort of virus tests that are relevant to this pandemic, and was involved in disease eradication campaigns.

(There are people on Amazon purporting to sell hardback copies of my - now outdated - book for silly amounts of money. In fact there never was a hardback, it was a paperback from the start.)
Cool. They don't show your PanAm book on your author page?

You should contact Amazon to take down the used 'hardbacks', if that is a fake offer, to discourage this kind of fraud. Lots of people put lots of other people's work for sale on Amazon sans any kind of permission. Fraud on Amazon books is rampant in some fields. Amazon will only take fraudulent and plagiarized books down if the author contacts them directly.

People copy and sell zip files from online sites like fan-fiction and put it up for sale as their own. You can tell Amazon something is plagiarized including providing proof and if you aren't the actual author they won't take the stolen work down.
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Because feeding poor people is socialism.

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Old 1st May 2020, 08:28 AM   #347
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Quote:
Undersköterskan Sofia, 30, blev sjuk i corona efter att ha arbetat på äldreboendet Berga.
Vårdkoncernens vd försäkrar att det funnits ordentlig skyddsutrustning till personalen – men det avfärdar hon som ett skämt.
– De försöker rädda sig själva, det förstår man ju. Vi vet att det inte fanns utrustning, säger hon.
Sofia jobbade på Berga – blev sjuk och fick åka ambulans (Aftonbladet.se, May 1, 2020)
My translation:
Nurse Sofia, 30, got ill with Covid-19 after working at Berga nursing home.
The vice president of the nursing company asserts that there was proper protective gear for the staff – but she dismisses this as a joke.
- They are trying to save themselves, that is easy to understand. We know that there was no protective gear, she says.
Sofia was working at Berga – got ill and was taken away by an ambulance

Experter: Pandemin kan pågå i upp till två år (SVT.se, May 1, 2020)
Experts: The pandemic may continue for as long as two years

I assume that the reason why Anders Tegnell has so little faith in the development of a vaccine is that it is the only thing that would justify his herd-immmunity strategy and the unnecessary deaths caused by it.


Deaths per million (total) (TV2.dk, May 1, 2020)
Sweden: 264 (2,653)
USA: 192 (63,019)
Denmark: 80 (460)
Finland: 39 (218)
Norway: 39 (210)
Iceland: 30 (10)

Finland has now overtaken Norway. They'd better start testing ...
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old 1st May 2020, 08:36 AM   #348
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Craft project for you during lockdown, get some card and start printing some covers!

Or get hold of the digitalized manuscript and make it available as a Kindle book.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 1st May 2020, 08:47 AM   #349
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If you want new leaders and not just hate on your neighbours, I just checked JHU and found that the Netherlands have 272 deaths per million with a pretty straight lockdown.

And Belgium with even stricter measures sports an impressive 656 deaths per million! These countries are much more comparable to the nordic countries than the US is so I see no reason to not include them in your little death count charts.
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Old 1st May 2020, 09:01 AM   #350
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Have Belgium and the Netherlands locked down? Is that new? Last I heard they were doing much the same as Sweden.
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Old 1st May 2020, 09:03 AM   #351
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Cool. They don't show your PanAm book on your author page?

You should contact Amazon to take down the used 'hardbacks', if that is a fake offer, to discourage this kind of fraud. Lots of people put lots of other people's work for sale on Amazon sans any kind of permission. Fraud on Amazon books is rampant in some fields. Amazon will only take fraudulent and plagiarized books down if the author contacts them directly.

People copy and sell zip files from online sites like fan-fiction and put it up for sale as their own. You can tell Amazon something is plagiarized including providing proof and if you aren't the actual author they won't take the stolen work down.

I've had no joy contacting them previously. They had another book of mine listed as having a co-author I've never heard of, but I never got an answer to emails asking them to correct this.

Nobody in their right mind is going to fall for these silly prices. There are several second-hand copies available at reasonable prices and the silly ones are just some algorithm. It's quite common.
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Old 1st May 2020, 09:34 AM   #352
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Have Belgium and the Netherlands locked down? Is that new? Last I heard they were doing much the same as Sweden.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-wh...ope/a-52905137

Belgium has totally closed the borders and police are patrolling to control nobody is outside without "essential" cause. Netherlands has done it similar to Germany or Czech Republic etc, meaning a bit less strict than in say Spain or Italy in terms of house arrest but with everything public shut down.

Belgium on the day of lockdown, March 18: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ga...is-in-pictures
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:07 AM   #353
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OK, I was either misinformed or misremembering. Do you know how far on in their epidemic curves they introduced radical measures?
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:15 AM   #354
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Most of the comparisons being discussed on this thread—"country A did lockdown measures X+Y, country B just did X, but A has more cases than B, what gives?" are leaving out the most important parameter: how many cases did they start with when the lockdown began?

That accounts for most of the differences in case rates between different states in the US (with the complication of having slightly different lockdown measures put into effect on different dates), different counties within a state, and different towns within a county. I'm pretty sure the same effect also scales upward to different countries and different geographical regions. The pandemic spread is fractal.
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:50 AM   #355
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There was a great graphic doing the rounds at the start of this showing how many deaths you avoided by going into lockdown (or at least implementing very strict social distancing) even a day earlier. Even a day topslices the exponential growth by an amazing amount. A week is on another planet.
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:52 AM   #356
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
OK, I was either misinformed or misremembering. Do you know how far on in their epidemic curves they introduced radical measures?

As I said, the lockdown happened on March 18.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/belgium/

Looks pretty early to me but you will be better able to tell us how the curves compare to other countries.
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Old 1st May 2020, 12:03 PM   #357
dann
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
Most of the comparisons being discussed on this thread—"country A did lockdown measures X+Y, country B just did X, but A has more cases than B, what gives?" are leaving out the most important parameter: how many cases did they start with when the lockdown began?

The problem with your question is that in most cases nobody knows. The exceptions are the countries/regions where testing of a major part of the population started early. Iceland, for instance, or the Faroe Islands. They are also the ones that have been fairly successful in their attempts to contain and in some cases apparently even defeat the virus.
The term that has become popular in recent weeks to describe countries without adequate testing is flying blind. It is used right now about the states that are opening up without having tested a significant percentage of the population. That alone tells you that your question about the number of cases that they started with at any point can't be answered with anything other than guesswork.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 2nd May 2020, 01:17 AM   #358
dann
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Quote:
Smittetrykket i Danmark er steget fra 0,6 – 0,9.
Det vurderer Statens Serum Institut.
Dermed nærmer Danmark sig et smittetryk, som faglig direktør i Statens Serum Institut, Kåre Mølbak, har beskrevet som kritisk.
Trods forskellige corona-strategier – Danmark og Sverige har næsten samme smittetryk (TV2.dk, May 1, 2020)
Translation:
The infection rate in Denmark rose from 0.6 to 0.9.
According to the Nations Serum Institute.
This means that Denmark is approaching an infection rate that the president of the National Serum Institute has described as critical.
In spite of different corona strategies – Denmark and Sweden have almost the same infection rate

(However, when you look at the graphs and curves in the article, it is important to take this difference into consideration:
Percentage of population tested - Percentage of positive tests
Sweden: 0.7 – 14.1
Denmark: 1.7 – 7.8
The article doesn't appear to do so.)

Rate of infection spread in Denmark 'higher since schools opening' (thelocal.dk, April 30, 2020)
Denmark's coronavirus rate of infection has RISEN from 0.6 to 0.9 since schools re-opened (Daily Mail, May 1, 2020)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 3rd May 2020, 01:41 AM   #359
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An Australian researcher describes the Swedish approach as "unsuccessful"

Not paywalled

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12329248

Professor Marylouise McLaws, an epidemiologist with the Healthcare Infection and Infectious Diseases Control unit at the University of New South Wales, said the herd immunity approach came at a "high price".
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Old 3rd May 2020, 02:27 AM   #360
dann
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Very good article!

Quote:
Sweden's model of dealing with coronavirus can be simply described as planning and hoping for herd immunity.
Herd immunity should theoretically occur when a significant proportion of the population has contracted Covid-19 and recovered from it, therefore unable to get it again, if that indeed is possible.

Sweden appears to have done more hoping than planning. By the way, herd immunity also works when a significant proportion of the population has contracted a disease and not recovered from it. Every death helps herd immunity, but in the case of Covid-19, there aren't so many deaths that they contribute much to it. Herd immunity also doesn't care about people whose lungs are ruined by the disease.

Quote:
"We have looked at the death rates very closely and we are trying to work out why because there was already a ban on visiting care homes.
"But in the homes in Sweden they are really old and really sick and need constant care.
"They need people coming there and the lockdown can't stop that."

I can't imagine that they were stupid enough to think that only guests and not staff would infect old people!
And then there's this:
Kommuner undanhöll information om smittspridningen inom äldreomsorgen (SVT.se, May 2, 2020)
Municipalities suppressed information about the spread of the virus in nursing homes

Quote:
A study from New Zealand researchers this week examined the reproduction rates in several countries and compared it with their individual pandemic response plans.
Hassan Vally, an associate professor at La Trobe University, examined the research and said Sweden's Reff – or effective reproduction rate of infection – has dipped below one.

The article doesn't make it clear that there's a hell of a difference between two countries with a Reff of one if one country has 1,000 infected (and infecting) cases and the other country has 1,000,000 cases.


ETA: About one of the photos in the NZ article: People gather in a park in Stockholm, Sweden. Photo / AP
On a hot, sunny day, you can see the same thing in my local park in Frederiksberg, Copenhagen (the photo is probably pre-pandemic). I don't see it as a problem that people gather outside in small groups like the ones in the park in Stockholm. I visit the local park whenever the weather is good.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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